Could Robb have defeated Tywin?

[OwloftheRainwood]

5 hours ago, sifth said:

I agree, with Renly still alive there's no way Tywin is winning the war. Even if he were able to beat Robb in the field, which I think we all can agree on would not be an easy victory for him. Robb might have been dumb as a king, but as a military leader he was a genius. I just don't see him defeating Robb's without taking heavy casualties in the process, which would make for an easy victory for Renly. Many if only Stannis didn't screw things up, but then we wouldn't have an interesting story to talk about.

Yes, had House Baratheon kept it together, the dynamics would've been very different. Some argue the Blackfish played a major role in Robb's victories as opposed to inexperienced Robb being a military genius. This is also why I'm not a Stannis apologist. He's got a great story arc, but his stubbornness forces.him to push his "rightful" claim despite having almost no friends and a tenuous heir situation with Shireen. Some sense of "honor" or "justice" are catastrophic for both Stannis and Robb. I don't think ASOIF will forgive Stannis' kinslaying.

 

8 hours ago, dariopatke said:

No, Robb lost the war the day Renly died.

Robb could have defeated Tywin in field and if he did capture him somehow the war is over. Ofc Tywin is much better at pokitics and winning wars but if Robb marched on Tywin entire war becomes that battlefield and political moves doesnt matter there, only armies and skills of commanders do.

I agree in general - I don't know if it was literally "the day Renly died" but just the consistent disunity in House Baratheon after Robert died and the collapse of the Baratheon-Tyrell alliance. It wasn't Tywin's military brilliance that won WO5K, but his agile political maneuvering. It wasn't lack of military ability that doomed the Stark-Tully forces, but Robb's immense lack of political acumen.

[Sullen]

19 hours ago, Winter prince said:

If their armies met straight up; Robb loses.  If he got to continue his strategy and Edmure doesn't turn back Lannister forces at riverrun; Robb wins

Not really, Tywin and his generals know the Westerlands better than Robb does, have more troops, and Robb is likely partly incapacitated at the Crag by the time he has to face Tywin.

More likely than not, Edmure saved Robb's ass.

8 hours ago, dariopatke said:

No, Robb lost the war the day Renly died.

Robb could have defeated Tywin in field and if he did capture him somehow the war is over. Ofc Tywin is much better at pokitics and winning wars but if Robb marched on Tywin entire war becomes that battlefield and political moves doesnt matter there, only armies and skills of commanders do.

It would be more accurate to say that Tywin won the day Renly died.

Renly dead means Robb, Stannis, and even Balon, have no chance of victory. The Tyrell-Lannister-Baratheon powerbloc is simply too much.

[The Frosted King]

2 hours ago, cgrav said:

Robb splitting his army was a success only because Tywin underestimated him at the outset, and wisely didn't muster the full force that he could have. Even though it might have seemed like a genius move upon reading, distraction it's an extremely basic tactic and one that he could only have gotten away with that first time. From then on, anyone would know that if they saw less than ~15,000 troops, it was not the real army.

unfortunately, basic tactics were the full extent of Robb's military ability. Robb was facing a vastly superior opponent who could exert force in ways that were completely unforeseeable to him.

While it's circular to say that Robb had to die because he did die, it is proper argumentation to say that the Red Wedding revealed Robb's very significant weaknesses. Even if we pretend that we're not talking about literature, Tywin had such advantages that Robb's chances of ultimate victory were minuscule. 

 

Don't agree at all.

If you read the books, none of the vastly esteemed military commanders ever really do anything that's particularly brilliant, so it's strange that you're applying the "he's not so smart after all" brush to Robb when that rings true for all the commanders.

This is a story, so the day is constantly won/lost by the means of quick cavalry rushes from the middle of nowhere because that's just good drama.

Robb was facing a vastly superior opponent in Tywin Lannister? Please.

Robb faced the pen of George R Martin and was defeated there, and Tywin being a greedy bastard merely took the credit.

How would Tywin's insurmountable advantages have worked for him should the noise of the king's party have scared off the boars? 

Tywin sends the largest knight in the realm into the riverlands to raid and rape, King Robert comes back from the woods angry at finding no game, only to find out his hated good father has invaded the ancestral lands of his best friends wife. 

How does that work out for Tywin? 

Oh, but it does, because in the first two books, the Lannister thread is the luckiest strand of narrative in the books.

Stop it slime.

To answer the question, a pitched battle with mostly equal forces could've went either way. 

Just going by what we know of the two commanders, i'd believe Robb more likely to be wary of Tywin than the other way around, and hubris is a killer.

 

[Marcus corvinus]

No, Robb would've been crushed. Robb never defeated tywin as they never met in the field in a pitched battle. Robb defeated jaime and edmure one some skirmishes against the mountain;HE DID NOT DEFEAT TYWIN!!!

Tywin's army was far superior. He had the lannisport guard which was a professional standing army. He had division of pikemen who were clearly drilled as they could be expected to pull of complex maneuvers. And plus as the westerlands are the richest realm their troops have the best equipment in the realm. Plus nearly half the army are directly leavies of house lannister. Thus they have little leadership and loyalty issue. The southern lords are more like to use plate armor while the north uses mail. Plus you have tywin who commanded unquestioned obedience and respect from his lords and captains. 

Compare that to robb. The pathetic northern army. They are too poor to afford plate so most of them make do with mail. They have lesser heavy cavalry than tywin. And most have all their leadership isn't solid. Roose bolton's loyalty is shaky from the start. He'd probably preserve his force and not commit them at all in the case tywin's army got the lead. The northern lords are not respectful of robb and many try to test him by mocking him. Can you imagine any western lord dare pulling any stunt on tywin?

Plus the west have devoted and capable officers like kevan commanding the pike division, adam marbrand commanding the heavy horse. There are no roose boltons here, no karstarks or greatjons who are unsure of their leader.

In short, if robb took his full strength to the green fork to meet tywin it would've been a slaughter.

[King Ned Stark]

Of course Robb could beat Tywin.  Tywin had no great military victories.

[cgrav]

1 hour ago, The Frosted King said:

 

Don't agree at all.

If you read the books, none of the vastly esteemed military commanders ever really do anything that's particularly brilliant, so it's strange that you're applying the "he's not so smart after all" brush to Robb when that rings true for all the commanders.

This is a story, so the day is constantly won/lost by the means of quick cavalry rushes from the middle of nowhere because that's just good drama.

Robb was facing a vastly superior opponent in Tywin Lannister? Please.

 

 

Brilliance in battle is often not necessary, and Robb doesn't demonstrate any unusual level of skill. Attacking an enemy at night... Splitting forces... those are exactly what every commander hopes to do. Robb did nothing that any other commander wouldn't have done given the opportunity.

Even if without the Red Wedding Robb'smilitary acumen would have been tested severely by the Crown/Reach alliance. That alliance puts Randyll Tarly on the board against a Robb with diminished forces. Remember Robb's forces were suffering low morale because of Tywin's raids in the Riverlands and the Iron invasion of the North. By the time of the Red Wedding, Robb is having a har time just keeping his armies together. How could he have faced a much fresher Randyll Tarly commanding the Tyrell forces? They had fought only one battle and defeated Stannis soundly.

you seem to be missing the point that war is only half fought in battle. Robb was completely oblivious to non-combat strategy, and that's what killed him. Even if he'd routed Tywin's forces decisively, he'd still have fallen victim to the alliances and plots that Tywin could put together. Had Robb somehow marched all the way to Kings Landing, the best possible outcome was watching  his sisters' heads go up on the walls while trying siege the city. Once you look past Robb's underdog story, it's clear that his advantages are running out and he can't sustain the effort required for an outright military defeat.

Military aside, you can't just discount the importance of politics in war. That's the whole purpose of war in the first place, at least in the medieval setting.

I'm not trying to make a circular argument, but GRRM wrote this story such that Robb loses for very good reasons. Those reasons are obscured for dramatic effect, but they are there. Robb had engaged in a war he couldnt, unless we want to turn Robb into a whole new character.

There's a big difference between asking whether Tywin could lose and asking whether Robb could win. 

[The Frosted King]

13 hours ago, cgrav said:

Brilliance in battle is often not necessary, and Robb doesn't demonstrate any unusual level of skill. Attacking an enemy at night... Splitting forces... those are exactly what every commander hopes to do. Robb did nothing that any other commander wouldn't have done given the opportunity.

Even if without the Red Wedding Robb'smilitary acumen would have been tested severely by the Crown/Reach alliance. That alliance puts Randyll Tarly on the board against a Robb with diminished forces. Remember Robb's forces were suffering low morale because of Tywin's raids in the Riverlands and the Iron invasion of the North. By the time of the Red Wedding, Robb is having a har time just keeping his armies together. How could he have faced a much fresher Randyll Tarly commanding the Tyrell forces? They had fought only one battle and defeated Stannis soundly.

you seem to be missing the point that war is only half fought in battle. Robb was completely oblivious to non-combat strategy, and that's what killed him. Even if he'd routed Tywin's forces decisively, he'd still have fallen victim to the alliances and plots that Tywin could put together. Had Robb somehow marched all the way to Kings Landing, the best possible outcome was watching  his sisters' heads go up on the walls while trying siege the city. Once you look past Robb's underdog story, it's clear that his advantages are running out and he can't sustain the effort required for an outright military defeat.

Military aside, you can't just discount the importance of politics in war. That's the whole purpose of war in the first place, at least in the medieval setting.

I'm not trying to make a circular argument, but GRRM wrote this story such that Robb loses for very good reasons. Those reasons are obscured for dramatic effect, but they are there. Robb had engaged in a war he couldnt, unless we want to turn Robb into a whole new character.

There's a big difference between asking whether Tywin could lose and asking whether Robb could win. 

 

I understand everything you outline but i strongly disagree.

Against the numbers of a Tyrell/Lannister alliance, Robb couldn't win in a pitched battle. But why would he play to his enemies strengths anyways? As much as you downplay Robb, he at least demonstrated that much battle savvy.

Robb was politically defeated because everyone on his side went stupid for reasons of plot.

Ser Rodrik emptied Winterfell. Maester Luwin who taught Robb and Jon snow warcraft, said nothing to counter said stupidity.

Catelyn Stark went and trusted the word of Jaime Lannister, the third largest liar in the seven kingdoms after Varys and Littlefinger, though everything up to that point in the story informed her of his inability to be trusted.

The RW wasn't a foregone conclusion, it was the scene that made the story hurt, and it basically began the entire saga, iirc.

Martin envisioned it, and then wrote the story to make it happen, even though some factions had to play idiotball to make a game of it.

 

[Nocturne]

On 22 September 2016 at 0:32 AM, Britisher said:

Robb lost the war the day he brought his bannermen south. 

That's one of the dumbest claims that floats around. Robb bar for the mistake he did with Rooses's battle, he outsmarted the larger enemy at every turn.

He could have won this war if he played the politics side of it better, him losing had nothing to do with his army marching south. If he kept his generals in line, at the very least he would have forced the Lannisters to sue for peace.

[siyxx]

I don't think so. 

I haven't seen Robb showed any remarkable skills in terms of politics. I don't think he has what it takes to win, he doesn't have a 'calculating', 'calm' and 'sly/cunning' nature in him (e.g. honorably married Jeyne without really thinking through and through on the bigger picture). His great portfolio in the battlefields come from a great assistance of the Blackfish. Tywin has more than just cavalries and men; he's cunning, clever, manipulative and very very experienced in this game.

Also, the death of Renly pretty much sealed the deal for Robb. If only the Baratheons had sort their shit out, maybe the young wolf might have a chance to show his real potential. 

 

[Lord Vance II]

If Robb had married some Frey girl while waiting for his army to pass the Twins, Roose stayed loyal and Karstark stayed loyal, I think he could have forced peace...maybe not a decisive win. I don't know if he would get his sisters back, maybe if he had kept hold of Jaime. 

15 hours ago, cgrav said:

Attacking an enemy at night... Splitting forces... those are exactly what every commander hopes to do. Robb did nothing that any other commander wouldn't have done given the opportunity.

I don't think many commander would have the guts. Night attacks are extremely hard to pull off and if Tywin ever realized Robb had split his forces, he'd crush one arm and deal Robb's army a mortal blow. Robb reminds me of Robert E. Lee in the American civil war, outmatched and outmanned but uses brilliance and luck to win (for a while). Maybe some of it can be chocked up to young fearlessness, but Robb rolled the dice over and over, compared to most commanders who would just line em up and hope for the best. Robb knew he couldn't do that, so he actually had to try. 

[GyantSpyder]

Robb's biggest failures were in diplomacy - and even barring that, communication.

Robb's strategy depends on coordinating with Stannis. The goal is to push into the Riverlands, relieve Riverrun, and get the River Lords into the fight. This is not to defeat Tywin in the field, but force him to respond. If Tywin responds by heading west, then he leaves King's Landing vulnerable.

His objective at this point is not to destroy the Lannisters, but to force the Lannisters to sue for peace because King Joffrey has been deposed.

The problem is that this plan requires a bunch of other people to do specific things, and Robb was not in active communication with those people. So if anything unexpected happened (which it was bound to), even if Robb could adapt, the other people involved wouldn't know how to adapt in order to keep Robb's plan on track.

People love to blame Edmure for the Battle of the Fords, but I blame Robb and the Blackfish for that. Edmure is the lord of a Great House commanding a major fortress and garrison. When public enemy number one attacks, I think it can be safely assumed that killing half his host and throwing him back over the river is a reasonable thing to do. If Robb really didn't want Edmure to do that, it was not enough to just tell Edmure to defend Riverrun. he needed to be in communication with Edmure somehow to tell him, no, really, even if it seems stupid, don't counterattack. Please.

One perspective that helps understand this is how much damage Gregor was doing to the countryside, and how to the Riverlands, he was a bigger problem than anything else in the war. Is Edmure really supposed to just let the Mountain come farther into his territory to rape and kill more innocent people? I suspsect that, when Robb bashes Edmure for it, it's because he assumes that, because he is Edmure's king, Edmure has no autonomous decisionmaking he has to do (which is not true), and when the Blackfish bashes Edmure, it's because he's super-grizzled and doesn't sympathize with how other people might find wartime atrocities to be more objectionable than the conflict that started the war.

It's similar with Stannis. If Stannis knew that Tywin was pushed back at the Fords and heading to reinforce King's Landing from the north, he might not still have launched an amphibious assault on it from the south. Robb is impulsive, but Stannis is not. Stannis could have adapted his whole plan around the Battle of the Fords if he'd known about it.

I'm sure Robb had access through at least the River Lords to a maester or some ravens, but I can't recall him using them much. Yes, there's a risk if you communicate more, your messages will be intercepted, but Robb's plan doesn't work at all without communication.

Also it was really dumb of Robb to send Theon to Balon Greyjoy (who had openly rebelled just a decade ago) to see if they could forge an alliance before the invasion, but then start the invasion before he had an answer yet. It was not unforeseeable that Balon would attack the North if Robb left it vulnerable - especially since Robb had returned his only hostage in exchange for nothing.

On top of that of course is the disaster of how he handled capturing Jaime Lannister (which is largely his mother's fault, but the buck stops with Robb, he's in charge).

And on top of that it was terrible that Robb didn't know about the Ramsay Snow gathering armed men to attack the Hornwood in his absence. That would have been very valuable information, and not just in hindsight, but in general, was probably more important than the actual war.

So yeah -

• Robb doesn't communicate with his own guys effectively, or with HQ back in Winterfell
• He doesn't forge the alliances he needs to forge.
• Even if he isn't allied with Stannis, he still needs to communicate with Stannis as his whole plan is based on what Stannis does, and he doesn't do that
• He doesn't effectively use hostages
• He doesn't effectively use ravens
• He doesn't wait for critical information before acting
• He doesn't adjust his strategy to compensate for all these strategic disadvantages - he just proceeds assuming they're not important.

That's why he can't beat Tywin.

[Blackfish Tully]

It's kind of strange how so many posters insist that Robb could not defeat Tywin when clearly he was defeating Tywin and beating him badly . 

He had crushed and scattered Jaimie's army at the Whispering Woods and the Battle of the Camps and then crushed Stafford's army at Oxcross , the Riverlords had taken back all of their castles except Harrenhall and Robb was attacking the West, taking castles and using up and cutting Tywin off from his Westerland resources . Tywin had 20,000 men at Harrenhall and a few thousand at Kings Landing against Renly and his 80,000 or so men plus Robb and the Riverlords.  If Renly does not get killed by the shadow baby Tywin would have more then likely been crushed between Robb and the Riverlords and Renly and the Reach lords but you don't have to take my word for it when Tywin himself sums it up pretty nicely .

 

Ser Kevan did as he was bid. Lord Tywin unrolled the leather, smoothing it flat. "Jaime has left us in a bad way. Roose Bolton and the remnants of his host are north of us. Our enemies hold the Twins and Moat Cailin. Robb Stark sits to the west, so we cannot retreat to Lannisport and the Rock unless we choose to give battle. Jaime is taken, and his army for all purposes has ceased to exist. Thoros of Myr and Beric Dondarrion continue to plague our foraging parties. To our east we have the Arryns, Stannis Baratheon sits on Dragonstone, and in the south Highgarden and Storm's End are calling their banners."

Tyrion smiled crookedly. "Take heart, Father. At least Rhaegar Targaryen is still dead."

 

[Sullen]

13 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

It's kind of strange how so many posters insist that Robb could not defeat Tywin when clearly he was defeating Tywin and beating him badly . 

He never faced Tywin's host face-on, and most certainly never fought him post Renly's death. 

15 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

If Renly does not get killed by the shadow baby Tywin would have more then likely been crushed between Robb and the Riverlords and Renly and the Reach lords but you don't have to take my word for it when Tywin himself sums it up pretty nicely .

Depends, Renly makes it very clear that he is unwilling to move against Tywin and the Lannisters until Robb swears fealty to him. He's pretty much waiting for them to bleed each other before moving in and destroying the weakened Lannister and Stark forces.

Only way Robb can really defeat Tywin is if strikes a deal with Renly, in which case the victory becomes Renly's more than Robb's, and which forces Robb to abdicate. Tywin would have lost, but Robb certainly wouldn't have "won" either.

[Blackfish Tully]

2 minutes ago, Sullen said:

He never faced Tywin's host face-on, and most certainly never fought him post Renly's death. 

 

What does that have to do with defeating Tywin? Robb was fighting a war against the Lannister's and the Iron Throne and he was following a strategy that gave him the best chance to win the war . It had nothing to do with him fighting Tywin one on one . If Renly had not been killed by the shadow baby then eventually they may have fought but Robb was not going to make a move on Tywin until it made the best sense for his overall war effort. 

 

6 minutes ago, Sullen said:

Depends, Renly makes it very clear that he is unwilling to move against Tywin and the Lannisters until Robb swears fealty to him. He's pretty much waiting for them to bleed each other before moving in and destroying the weakened Lannister and Stark forces.

 

Renly was slowly moving towards Kings Landing and that would have forced a confrontation with Tywin no matter what Renly wanted . Robb is the one who is in a better position to let his enemies bleed each other not Renly . 

 

8 minutes ago, Sullen said:

Only way Robb can really defeat Tywin is if strikes a deal with Renly, in which case the victory becomes Renly's more than Robb's, and which forces Robb to abdicate. Tywin would have lost, but Robb certainly wouldn't have "won" either.

Robb does not have to strike a deal with Renly . Renly has 80,000 to 100,000 soldiers in the field and he will have to make a move on Kings Landing soon or he will have a difficult time feeding all those men . Renly wants to be King on the Iron Throne and the Iron Throne is in Kings Landing , he needs to make a move but Robb can just sit in the West and let things play out between Renly and Tywin. 

[Sullen]

Just now, Blackfish Tully said:

What does that have to do with defeating Tywin? Robb was fighting a war against the Lannister's and the Iron Throne and he was following a strategy that gave him the best chance to win the war . It had nothing to do with him fighting Tywin one on one . If Renly had not been killed by the shadow baby then eventually they may have fought but Robb was not going to make a move on Tywin until it made the best sense for his overall war effort. 

Robb was already engaged with Tywin when he begged Renly for help, Renly is the one waiting everything out, it's not really an option for Robb considering he has Tywin after him and he's stuck in the Westerlands.

2 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Renly was slowly moving towards Kings Landing and that would have forced a confrontation with Tywin no matter what Renly wanted . Robb is the one who is in a better position to let his enemies bleed each other not Renly . 

Nope.

Renly was purposefully dragging things on, throwing parties, keeping morale high, starving out King's Landing, while Robb was stuck having to fight Tywin. Robb never waited anything out, hell, as Cat angrily points out to Renly, he's the only one fighting the Lannisters at the moment.

This notion that Robb could have waited while Renly and Tywin bled each other is ridiculous, it requires Renly to move against Tywin, and Renly made it very clear he wasn't willing to do anything until Robb pledged his allegiance. 

5 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Robb does not have to strike a deal with Renly . Renly has 80,000 to 100,000 soldiers in the field and he will have to make a move on Kings Landing soon or he will have a difficult time feeding all those men . Renly wants to be King on the Iron Throne and the Iron Throne is in Kings Landing , he needs to make a move but Robb can just sit in the West and let things play out between Renly and Tywin. 

Again, you're completely ignoring Renly's whole strategy of staying inactive.

Renly and his men are chilling in Westeros's granary surrounded by allies, they don't lack food, even while manning the largest army we've seen in the books so far. Not only that, but they also closed the Roseroad, cutting out King's Landing of a massive amount of food that they can simply keep for themselves. Renly's in no rush, at all.

Robb will have considerably more trouble feeding himself in the Westerlands, which aren't especially plentiful in any case, and which are hostile on top of that.

And, just to remind you, even with Stannis's great host moving rapidly towards King's Landing, Tywin thought that defeating Robb in the Westerlands was his top priority, only to turn back once defeated by Edmure at the Fords.

[dariopatke]

20 minutes ago, Sullen said:

And, just to remind you, even with Stannis's great host moving rapidly towards King's Landing, Tywin thought that defeating Robb in the Westerlands was his top priority, only to turn back once defeated by Edmure at the Fords.

Didnt Tywin march west because he thought he had 6 months before any Baratheon brother poses threat to KL?

[Sullen]

18 minutes ago, dariopatke said:

Didnt Tywin march west because he thought he had 6 months before any Baratheon brother poses threat to KL?

Not that I recall, Robb's whole plan of trapping Tywin in the Westerlands while Stannis takes King's Landing wouldn't make much sense otherwise.

If Robb is aware of Stannis being on the move, I don't see why Tywin wouldn't be as well.

EDIT: Flipped through the pages of ACoK, the chapter right before the Battle of the Fords has the Lannister camp be aware of the fall of Storm's End, so it as far as I know, it could have gone either way. 

[dariopatke]

23 minutes ago, Sullen said:

Not that I recall, Robb's whole plan of trapping Tywin in the Westerlands while Stannis takes King's Landing wouldn't make much sense otherwise.

If Robb is aware of Stannis being on the move, I don't see why Tywin wouldn't be as well.

EDIT: Flipped through the pages of ACoK, the chapter right before the Battle of the Fords has the Lannister camp be aware of the fall of Storm's End, so it as far as I know, it could have gone either way. 

 

Wait when was Robb aware Stannis was on the move?

Interesting, I am convinced I read somewhere that Tywin was expecting to have 6 months, if he was aware of fall of SE before fords...well that is pretty dumb.

[Sullen]

Just now, dariopatke said:

 

Wait when was Robb aware Stannis was on the move?

Interesting, I am convinced I read somewhere that Tywin was expecting to have 6 months, if he was aware of fall of SE before fords...well that is pretty dumb.

Robb's whole plan hinged on Edmure letting Tywin pass so that he would be trapped in the Westerlands, and that Stannis could then take KL. If Robb isn't aware of Stannis moving towards King's Landing, the plan makes very little sense. Does he seriously intend to be able to keep Tywin in check for those 6 months before Stannis reaches King's Landing? Because that becomes a rather unrealistic plan.

My guess is that Tywin believed he could expel Robb quickly from the Westerlands before racing to King's Landing. He got pushed back by Edmure though, and ended up meeting up with the Tyrells and Littlefinger at Bitterbridge instead, still not making a run for King's Landing.

[Blackfish Tully]

48 minutes ago, dariopatke said:

Didnt Tywin march west because he thought he had 6 months before any Baratheon brother poses threat to KL?

That's only after Renly was killed