Could Robb have defeated Tywin?

[FearlessBoggart]

On the whole time pressure thing, while Robb was in the West, he also had 'time pressure' because Theon had taken Winterfell and mounted his brothers' heads on the gates. Robb even admitted that he wanted to march home once he got the news.

[FearlessBoggart]

3 hours ago, Marcus corvinus said:

it didn't take a lot for the northerners to break. The mountain and some heavy cavalry, plus the hill tribes broke the northern lines. If some hillbillys can charge and break your infantry line i.e your first rate troops not your reserves, you're in for a world of hurt the more you go south.

I don't understand how some heavy horse can be considered 'hillbillies'. I'd like to see you and your buddies on foot stand against a cavalry charge. Cavalry, that too heavy cavalry, will pretty much always beat infantry, no matter how well trained they are. 

[Barty]

Assuming Robb had the Freys with him he would have a total of 23.5k men, which means he outnumbers Tywin slightly (though Tywin might have more heavy horse - we dont know for sure since the Freys added 1000 heavy horse to Robb's after he stated that Tywin has more heavy horse than him).

Since the battle of the camps has not happened - Tywin seriously underestimates Robb and that will be his failing. He wants to quickly deal with the Starks and Tullys before dealing with the Baratheons. Robb is a tactical genius and has some very competent men with him.

Simply put Robb has won battles at 3-1 odds, this will be a time when he actually has the advantage in numbers and the enemy commander is in a bit of a hurry and underestimates him. Tywin is doomed in this scenario. 

The only reason Robb did not march to meet Tywin is that he had no idea of how good he was. It was his first time in war - Even he did not know he would be any good at it so he took the safer route and marched against Jaime (though it could be argued that going against a Jaime Lannister who had just steamrolled the Riverlords and who was going to have a 3-1 advantage in battle was in no way the safer route).

[Blackfish Tully]

6 hours ago, Marcus corvinus said:

it didn't take a lot for the northerners to break. The mountain and some heavy cavalry, plus the hill tribes broke the northern lines. If some hillbillys can charge and break your infantry line i.e your first rate troops not your reserves, you're in for a world of hurt the more you go south.

Adam marbrand's main cavalry didn't even have to attack them. Plus its in the wiki that southern men have more plate and the northerners have more mail. Its also reflected in the description of the karstark host and the ngiht's watch. The night's watch tries to awe the wildlings with ringmail. Ringmail and chainmail while good, barely hold a candle to heavy plate.

As far as the levy's go. The lannisters fought in ancient times to establish their reign in the west so they likely have a large personal army coming from casterly rock's demense. Plus they have lannisport, the third richest and third largest city in realm with somewhere between 200k-300k or more people. Look at wyman manderly, just with white harbor, the most meager city in westeros and its surrounding demense he's the most powerful and richest lord in the north. Imagine the strength of lannister personal army with the prosperous lannisport and casterly rock demense in their direct control. Plus their enemies, the reynes and tarbecks have been exterminated and no new houses were granted those castles and their surrounding vassals. Its most likely that the vassals of reyne and tarbeck now answer directly to casterly rock just as whitehills answer to the dreadfort. And being the richest house in the kingdom in addition i think its safe to say that they can raise as many men as the hightowers...about 20,000.

Plus the lannisters are large in numbers, they're all spread through out the army and have a firm hold on the west after rains of castemere. The west is united behind tywin, with one goal and one voice. The north is not. The starks are pretty weak as far as LP status goes. The boltons are always on the lookout for an opportunity and the other houses don't fear the starks like the western houses fear the lannisters. There isn't unity in the army. The karstarks unilaterally hunted jaime against robbs decision and deserted him. 

Can you imagine any western lord saying fuck you like that to tywin and his men deserting in tywin's face?

 

 

If the Lannister's and the Westerners were so much better then the Northerers  then how come after Robb crushed Stafford in the West after crushing Jaimie's army at the Battle of the Camps there was never any effort by anybody in West to do anything about Robb and his 6000 men. Daven Lannister is with the remnants of Stafford's army in Lannisport plus there are 4 thousand of Jaimie's old army  at the Golden Tooth and there must be thousands of more men spread out through the West in the different castles and towns but Robb rampages through the West taking castles , gold mines and thousands of cattle and nobody in the West does anything but hide in their castles and towns. They could have made some effort to attack Robb especially since it seems that Robb's army was splitting into smaller groups to attack different parts of the West but it seems that Robb and the Northerners have completely taken the Westerners heart and confident , they are completely terrified of him and his men.  

[Trigger Warning]

The issue is that Robb has never fought a pitched battle where both armies form in their order of battle and then commit. No commander is ever going to have the circumstances available to pull an Oxcross or Whispering Wood every time, nor could any commander force such circumstances every time.  

Tywin's not going to be as easily fooled as Jaime, Greywind and Stafford are mostly responsible for Oxcross, the Camps was a battle where the distribution of the besiegers swung the odds heavily in Robb's favour. 

What if Jaime hadn't taken the bait or had enough scouts to easily detect Robb and send him word, what if he drew his army into one solid formation in preparation or simply withdrew, Robb would have split his forces and taken a loss at the Green Fork with no decisive strike against the Lannisters. There's simply too much risk in expecting these brilliant circumstances to present themselves every time. You can't just perpetually kill all the enemy scouts, as much as GRRM likes the idea. 

In an actual field battle it could go either way. We don't even know how well Robb would perform under those circumstances. Setting up a fight where the odds are heavily in your favour and commanding a drawn out battle between two similarly sized armies are completely different things. 

Avoiding battle with Tywin and allowing Renly to march was the best bet and Robb knew it. 
 

[Marcus corvinus]

9 hours ago, FearlessBoggart said:

I don't understand how some heavy horse can be considered 'hillbillies'. I'd like to see you and your buddies on foot stand against a cavalry charge. Cavalry, that too heavy cavalry, will pretty much always beat infantry, no matter how well trained they are. 

i'm referring to tyrion's hill tribesemen as hillbillies. Tyrion was along gregor's side with his mountain men. And gregor didn't take the bulk of the cavalry just a small portion. The main lannister mounted force was on the wings with adam marbrand. So yes, a few cavalry and hillbillies sent an entire wing of northern infantry to retreat.

Cavalry doesn't always guaranteed defeat infantry. This is a misconception.  Look at countless battles throughout history: the second punic war, the scottish wars of independence, the first crusade, the battle of the golden spurs, the hundred years wars....to name a few

[Aetta]

Robb would not have prevailed, but not solely because of Tywin.  

It's the Riverlands that would have done him in, no matter the Southron enemy.  Walder Frey clearly had intents, took advantage of (at least the perception that) Edmure is not respected, Blackfish is old, Catelyn is husband-less and Lysa is a nutjob.

Then there's the discontent between some of the Houses of the Riverlands, the geography (the Riverlands is not Riverrun), the unpredicatability of the Ironborn (who got their heir back, thanks to Robb allowing Theon to go to Balon), of Stannis and even Daenerys to attack him there.  Was Robb even prepared in the event any of these new players entered the meley?  How would he hold the territory without any significant support from the Riverlords? 

Then there's Robb's inability to walk and chew gum without Roose there to guide him.  That is, protect Winterfell while he is otherwise in-theater.  Given the history between Houses Stark and Bolton, why, oh why, would Robb want Ramsay anywhere near Winterfell?

 

 

[giant snake]

I think in an open battle, Robb would win 9 times out of 10.  It's obvious he has the tactical ability and the commanders, and I think one of the themes is that the northmen as a whole were better fighters than the rank and file of the Lannister armies, which are also smaller.  Tywin's war record isn't really about winning battles as much as securing as much as possible after someone else has won it.  Even more to Robb's advantage is that his troops have higher morale.  

 

Tywin's key strengths are things that are more implied about him:  His troops are probably well paid and less likely to desert or become stragglers in a campaign.  He probably has a technological advantage, coming from a more advanced area, and his cavalry would probably be stronger.  I don't think that offsets the advantages to the North.

[Universal Sword Donor]

On 9/25/2016 at 5:08 AM, Marcus corvinus said:

it didn't take a lot for the northerners to break. The mountain and some heavy cavalry, plus the hill tribes broke the northern lines. If some hillbillys can charge and break your infantry line i.e your first rate troops not your reserves, you're in for a world of hurt the more you go south.

Adam marbrand's main cavalry didn't even have to attack them. Plus its in the wiki that southern men have more plate and the northerners have more mail. Its also reflected in the description of the karstark host and the ngiht's watch. The night's watch tries to awe the wildlings with ringmail. Ringmail and chainmail while good, barely hold a candle to heavy plate.

As far as the levy's go. The lannisters fought in ancient times to establish their reign in the west so they likely have a large personal army coming from casterly rock's demense. Plus they have lannisport, the third richest and third largest city in realm with somewhere between 200k-300k or more people. Look at wyman manderly, just with white harbor, the most meager city in westeros and its surrounding demense he's the most powerful and richest lord in the north. Imagine the strength of lannister personal army with the prosperous lannisport and casterly rock demense in their direct control. Plus their enemies, the reynes and tarbecks have been exterminated and no new houses were granted those castles and their surrounding vassals. Its most likely that the vassals of reyne and tarbeck now answer directly to casterly rock just as whitehills answer to the dreadfort. And being the richest house in the kingdom in addition i think its safe to say that they can raise as many men as the hightowers...about 20,000.

Plus the lannisters are large in numbers, they're all spread through out the army and have a firm hold on the west after rains of castemere. The west is united behind tywin, with one goal and one voice. The north is not. The starks are pretty weak as far as LP status goes. The boltons are always on the lookout for an opportunity and the other houses don't fear the starks like the western houses fear the lannisters. There isn't unity in the army. The karstarks unilaterally hunted jaime against robbs decision and deserted him. 

Can you imagine any western lord saying fuck you like that to tywin and his men deserting in tywin's face?

 

 

It took a lot for them to break. They are pressed hard from the font by a similarly armed and armored infantry force, after the mountain leads his men into a charge at the lines. They get hit with multiple volleys  of arrows. Then they get hit from the side by heavy cavalry. Untrained, easily broken infantry would not last that long. Stannis' men break when they are caught from behind by the Tyrell vanguard and the city was about to fall. Are they easily broken?

As you go farther south, yes the the armor does come primarily more into plate. However the foot soldiers are not going to be making use of plate by and large. There is a reason why I talked about the Frey levies. They are armed with ringmail and pikes, and they are the most powerful RL vassal as well as being directly east of the Westerlands. When we see Renly's SL and Reach army, the infantry men are similarly armed and armored:

“The steel points of pikes flamed red with sunlight, as if already blooded, while the pavilions of the knights and high lords sprouted from the grass like silken mushrooms. She saw men with spears and men with swords, men in steel caps and mail shirts,”

Stannis' men at the wall ran from fully armored in plate to padded jacks and helms. If you want to debate the quality of plate versus mail, I will not disagree. However that is irrelevant for 80% of the armies. The Northern heavy cavalry armor is never actually described, at least in the Karstark description you're alluding to. 

The Lannister demesnes are likely not any larger than the Stark demesnes, and the Starks had been the Kings of Winter for thousands of years too. You can't just ignore their history while plumping the Lannisters. Lannisport is large indeed but cities are not exactly ripe for levy recruitment. We don't see tons of people raised in KL to defend against Stannis and most of the new GCs are broken very easily. The Reyne and Tarbeck lands might well be under direct Lannister control -- hell we aren't even sure that Lannisport is -- but I have a very very hard time believing the Lannisters can raise about half the men possible in their kingdom when the Lord Declarants can raise 20K, about half or so for the Vale, without calling up the Arryn forces or other major houses not arrayed against LF.

[Marcus corvinus]

8 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

It took a lot for them to break. They are pressed hard from the font by a similarly armed and armored infantry force, after the mountain leads his men into a charge at the lines. They get hit with multiple volleys  of arrows. Then they get hit from the side by heavy cavalry. Untrained, easily broken infantry would not last that long. Stannis' men break when they are caught from behind by the Tyrell vanguard and the city was about to fall. Are they easily broken?

As you go farther south, yes the the armor does come primarily more into plate. However the foot soldiers are not going to be making use of plate by and large. There is a reason why I talked about the Frey levies. They are armed with ringmail and pikes, and they are the most powerful RL vassal as well as being directly east of the Westerlands. When we see Renly's SL and Reach army, the infantry men are similarly armed and armored:

“The steel points of pikes flamed red with sunlight, as if already blooded, while the pavilions of the knights and high lords sprouted from the grass like silken mushrooms. She saw men with spears and men with swords, men in steel caps and mail shirts,”

Stannis' men at the wall ran from fully armored in plate to padded jacks and helms. If you want to debate the quality of plate versus mail, I will not disagree. However that is irrelevant for 80% of the armies. The Northern heavy cavalry armor is never actually described, at least in the Karstark description you're alluding to. 

The Lannister demesnes are likely not any larger than the Stark demesnes, and the Starks had been the Kings of Winter for thousands of years too. You can't just ignore their history while plumping the Lannisters. Lannisport is large indeed but cities are not exactly ripe for levy recruitment. We don't see tons of people raised in KL to defend against Stannis and most of the new GCs are broken very easily. The Reyne and Tarbeck lands might well be under direct Lannister control -- hell we aren't even sure that Lannisport is -- but I have a very very hard time believing the Lannisters can raise about half the men possible in their kingdom when the Lord Declarants can raise 20K, about half or so for the Vale, without calling up the Arryn forces or other major houses not arrayed against LF.

I think they are larger. The stark personal army is never really shown in the books and there are many threads discussing its existence or lack of it. City's are ripe for levying. Look a wyman manderly and the hightowers. In the world of ice and fire its stated that during some ironborn war the lord hightower raised nearly all able bodied men in the city to arms. There isn't anything really similar in KL most probably because the people aren't loyal to them. The city rose up in riots a few days before the Blackwater, tywin's sack and the regicides were still recent memory and most people saw joffrey for what he was: an inbred shitpile. So arming them wouldn't be a could idea. And you saw exactly that with the new GC; they ran with their equipment.

Remember that nearly half of rhaegar's 40k army at the trident came from the crownlands. The crownlands are rich and populous. They despise the lannisters thats why strong houses like the stokeworths and rosbys barely provide any men to the defence of KL. They wan't cersei and her children to die.

As for the lords declarants....the royces are the reynes of the vale and the templetons can be the tarbecks. Both those major power houses have been extinguished in the west. So its entirely plausible that their vassals would seek lannisters as their new overlords. After all these minor lords and knightly houses don't have much else to protect them. The king wouldn't come west to protect them...so best throw their lot with the winning side. So its quite possible that the lannisters can raise 20,000 men. That's why they as a house are so feared and the tyrells are not. 

The tyrells can raise 80k men but they don't have a large share of that. Their vassals are powerful, some like the hightowers and possibly the redwynes are even more powerful then the tyrells. That's the lords of the reach act so unilaterally throughout history. The hightowers in the dance of dragons, the peakes.....

The lannisters on the other hand on their own are immensely strong, their wealth, massive army and unchallenged status in their own kingdom is what makes them so strong. That's why there aren't western lords even during cersei's impotent reign willing to go out of line