Could Robb have defeated Tywin?

[Canon Claude]

Assuming that Robb decided Riverrun would hold for a bit longer (which, given the second siege of Riverrun, that wouldn't be an unsafe bet to make), and marched his entire army against Tywin Lannister, would he have been able to defeat him?

[Britisher]

Robb lost the war the day he brought his bannermen south. 

[Floki of the Ironborn]

I'd say it would have been the smart move to make.

True, Tywin's men are better equipped than Robb's, and he had about a thousand more cavalry, but Robb would likely have been smart enough not to rush into battle at the Green Fork. Given his consistent triumphs in the field, given that Tywin underestimated Robb until he heard of Riverrun's liberation, and given that Tywin has been defeated by the likes of Edmure Tully, I'd say that Tywin would likely have lost an open battle with Robb. 

And even if there is a risk, think of the reward. Tywin, Kevan, AND Tyrion captured, or slain, means that House Lannister is basically doomed. Jaime is too hotheaded, Cersei and Joffrey are crazy, and the rest of the Lannisters don't hold a candle to Tywin's intellect. Robb would be able to rally the Riverlands and march on Jaime, assuming his victory wasn't too Pyrrhic. But even if he would need to pull back and lick his wounds for a bit, the price of that victory seems too good to pass up.

[Winter prince]

If their armies met straight up; Robb loses.  If he got to continue his strategy and Edmure doesn't turn back Lannister forces at riverrun; Robb wins

[BlueNightzx]

I think that the right question is
Could the blackfish have defeated tywin?

no doubt robb was very talented as a tactician, but is heavily implied that most of his success is in no small part on the blackfish actions and battle vision.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

1 hour ago, BlueNightzx said:

I think that the right question is
Could the blackfish have defeated tywin?

no doubt robb was very talented as a tactician, but is heavily implied that most of his success is in no small part on the blackfish actions and battle vision.

Well it's a given that Blackfish would be with Robb in this scenario.

[fenr1s]

3 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

Assuming that Robb decided Riverrun would hold for a bit longer (which, given the second siege of Riverrun, that wouldn't be an unsafe bet to make), and marched his entire army against Tywin Lannister, would he have been able to defeat him?

Robb had two opportunities to defeat Tywin.

The first was as you suggested at the Greenfork, which would have been at best a tossup for Robb, with two equally large armies facing each other.

The second time was after the Battle of the Camps when Robb could have had the combined strength of the North and the Riverlands at his disposal severely outnumbering Tywin.

When we compare the numbers after the Battle of the Camps Robb had at least 11000 Riverlanders, plus his combined Northern and Frey cavalry of 6000, plus the army of Roose Bolton of about 12000 men.

If he had acted swiftly and marched on Tywin to meet him in a field battle near Harrenhal he would have outnumbered Tywins army by at least a third, even when leaving a 3000 men strong rearguard at Riverrun.

Considering the bad moral of Tywins army at that point the odds were very much in Robbs favor.

[John Suburbs]

2 hours ago, BlueNightzx said:

I think that the right question is
Could the blackfish have defeated tywin?

no doubt robb was very talented as a tactician, but is heavily implied that most of his success is in no small part on the blackfish actions and battle vision.

My thought exactly. Tywin pretty much runs his army, so all his enemies need to do is figure out what Tywin would do. Robb takes guidance from Blackfish, Greatjon and others, so he's a little harder to figure out.

If the two armies met at full force in an open field, then Tywin would take it. But the northerners are too smart to blunder into something like that.

[erra]

Yes. 

I think that's why it was so detrimental that his uncle Edmure fought back instead of letting Tywin continue into Robb's trap.

IF, and and it's a big one, if not for his non-Frey bride. 

Once pulled deeper into the Riverlands, Robb could have attacked from the the West.

Edmure could have attacked from the East.

Bolton and the Freys who were with them could have attacked from the South. (I believe when Bolton found out about Robb's young bride is when he made the serious move to jump ship along with the Freys. There were some high tier Freys in Harrenhall with Bolton, and that's where they learn the news. One of Frey's first sons who's supposed to marry Arya is even there at the same time as Arya and she sees him crying because he won't get to marry his princess anymore.) 

Especially if something could have been done to convince Renly to send even just some of his army north. 

Point is, I think Tywin came much closer to losing the war than most readers realize. If only Rob could've kept it in his pants, and had a little more trust in his uncle with his plans. 

[cgrav]

No.

Tywin was able to work on a political level that Robb simply could not. As a matter of both experience and character, Robb would never have been able to use anything other than brute force and basic military tactics, while Tywin was able to use exploit wealth and political influence to gain advantages. 

Robb made Tywin's armies bleed, but the battlefield was just one front that Tywin was managing. He was personally involved in the Jeyne Westerling "plot", and the Red Wedding was a clear demonstration of political deftness. Yes, it was a serious dick move, but it happened because Robb was simply not engaged at the same level as Tywin. 

I think it's silly to consider only battlefield victory when discussion the winning or losing of the war. The Red Wedding is a surprise precisely because GRRM distracts the reader with Robb's military prowess, such that it's easy to forget about that wars aren't always won only on the battlefield. 

[Lion of the West]

54 minutes ago, cgrav said:

No.

Tywin was able to work on a political level that Robb simply could not. As a matter of both experience and character, Robb would never have been able to use anything other than brute force and basic military tactics, while Tywin was able to use exploit wealth and political influence to gain advantages. 

Robb made Tywin's armies bleed, but the battlefield was just one front that Tywin was managing. He was personally involved in the Jeyne Westerling "plot", and the Red Wedding was a clear demonstration of political deftness. Yes, it was a serious dick move, but it happened because Robb was simply not engaged at the same level as Tywin. 

I think it's silly to consider only battlefield victory when discussion the winning or losing of the war. The Red Wedding is a surprise precisely because GRRM distracts the reader with Robb's military prowess, such that it's easy to forget about that wars aren't always won only on the battlefield. 

I agree 100%

[Dorian Martell]

9 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

Assuming that Robb decided Riverrun would hold for a bit longer (which, given the second siege of Riverrun, that wouldn't be an unsafe bet to make), and marched his entire army against Tywin Lannister, would he have been able to defeat him?

Nope. Robb was always destined to die as the author intended. It wouldn't matter what he did or how he did it. He needed to die to advance the story 

[OwloftheRainwood]

Yes, with major caveats. You have to set aside variables outside pure military acumen. Ned and Robb were not deft political operators and the Starks suffered severely for it. They could not compete with Tywin politically, especially without the Baratheons. At the same time, it's hard to dispute the martial prowess of the Stark-Tully forces. The Greenfork would've been a toss-up. Perhaps swift action after the Battle of the Camps could've caught Tywin outside of Harrenhall, that and the trap ruined by Edmure were Robb's best chances. Could Robb have won? Sure.

Think if the Baratheons kept it together and the Baratheon-Tyrell alliance joined with the North-Riverlands forces against the Lannisters. Not to mention the Lannister-hating Dornish. They would've gone the way of the Reynes. I'm not convinced House Lannister survives the series.

[dariopatke]

11 hours ago, Britisher said:

Robb lost the war the day he brought his bannermen south. 

No, Robb lost the war the day Renly died.

Robb could have defeated Tywin in field and if he did capture him somehow the war is over. Ofc Tywin is much better at pokitics and winning wars but if Robb marched on Tywin entire war becomes that battlefield and political moves doesnt matter there, only armies and skills of commanders do.

[hitman47]

No Robb was a fucking idiot

[sifth]

10 hours ago, dariopatke said:

No, Robb lost the war the day Renly died.

Robb could have defeated Tywin in field and if he did capture him somehow the war is over. Ofc Tywin is much better at pokitics and winning wars but if Robb marched on Tywin entire war becomes that battlefield and political moves doesnt matter there, only armies and skills of commanders do.

I agree, with Renly still alive there's no way Tywin is winning the war. Even if he were able to beat Robb in the field, which I think we all can agree on would not be an easy victory for him. Robb might have been dumb as a king, but as a military leader he was a genius. I just don't see him defeating Robb's army without taking heavy casualties in the process, which would make for an easy victory for Renly. Man if only Stannis didn't screw things up, but then we wouldn't have an interesting story to talk about.

[Nyrhex]

On paper he had the numbers, but despite his rep amongs large parts of the fandom he was more incredibly lucky than anything else. Right up until the moment his luck, and plot shield, ran out. 

Robb's problems are first of all that he fears Tywin.

He admits it right there in the books when the option to confront Tywin head on is presented. He would do very much like Roose in trying to take on Tywin unaware and fail, and then would very likely try and press for exactly the weakness that Tywin presented because Robb would take it to be his lucky ticket. He would commit his forces for the feint, very likely would do better than Roose did due to actually having his own cavalry, and would then fall for Tywin's trap either way.

Roose is still sticking for himself, and so are the Freys.

In battle they are very likely to cut thier losses the instant it looks like game over and turn back. If they are positioned on the front lines they would make a very timid advance if at all, and would likely delay to see how things unfold. Right there between those two you have about a third of Robb's total numbers pretty much sitting on the sidelines (Roose with ~3,500 and the Freys with ~3,600) to see how things turn out.

Robb had 22,000 men with the Freys, of which he left 200 at Moat Cailin and 800 at the Twins. He has ~6,000 cavalry (add Roose' cavalry but reduce the Riverlords and Mallisters who joined Robb for the Whispering Woods because in this timeline Robb had not crossed the Twins to meet them) out of a total of 21,000 available troops. 

Tywin has ~20,300 men with the 300 mounted Vale Clansmen. The rest of his force is ~7,500 cavalry, with around ~7,000 of those being well armored knights and men at arms in good armor, usually decent plate armor. Robb's cavalry is still mainly using just a mail hauberk and boiled leather. Even some of the lords are poorly armored like Roose and the Mormont girls off the top of my head. So with ~1,500 extra Lannister cavalry, and at least ~1,500 Bolton and Frey cavalry sitting on the sidelines, and the remaining Northern cavalry being significantly less armored, Robb's chances here look far worse.

Robb also likes to lead in person.

This would mean that the instant he recognises Tywins' "weakness", he is very likely to lead in person the assualt. This would mean that he would be trapped himself once the trap springs into action, which means that the Lannisters would not suffer from the execution of Ned that is happening right about now in King's Landing because they have the next Stark head hostage. Even if Tyrion dies in battle, Tywin can look at it as a plus. 

Attacking Tywin fails to get the Riverlands on the North's side.

Yes, the Riverlords would love to aid the Starks. But even if Robb wins, Jaime still has Edmure. Even if Jaime abandons the siege and retreats to the Westerlands, the Riverlands are now at the hands of an ill Hoster who has his only son and heir hostage at the hands of the Lannisters. He will never allow any action that would place him in danger. And that is assuming that Jaime does not outright attack Riverrun, takes the losses, and snags Hoster as well before going back to the Westerlands. The Riverlords cannot act against the Lannisters either way becasue the Lannisters hold all the cards.

Defeating Tywin won't mean the capture of Tywin.

Tywin is not likely to fall captive just because he lost a battle. He had a significant reserve and guard, and so did Kevan. Both were at the rear which means that they can still abandon ship and make a run for it with a good chance of escaping. Even if they lose the battle, they likely retreat either to Harrnehal if they have some forces left, or to Jaime's army, or back to the Westerlands. Either way all that Robb would manage would be to open the way for him to the capital, but...

Defeating Tywin won't get Ned back, nor would it capture Cersei, or Joffrey or his siblings or get Sansa and Arya.

Once the Lannisters in King's Landing hear of Tywin's defeat they can still abandon the capital and rush to the Westerlands. There is no power that can stop them and Robb would be too far away to snag them in time. Ned is already likely dead, and even if he isn't by some chance he is now taken to a dungeon under Casterly Rock, alongside Sansa. Arya may get to Robb, or plot would take her to Braavos all the same. The loss of the capital is just a PR victory for Robb, it simply places him in a bind because now Renly practically walk into the throne room and hang a "Mission accomplished" sign behind it. Robb lacks the power to stop him, and he won't get neither richers nor supplies from the capital before he would have to abandon it. 

[James Steller]

3 hours ago, Nyrhex said:

On paper he had the numbers, but despite his rep amongs large parts of the fandom he was more incredibly lucky than anything else. Right up until the moment his luck, and plot shield, ran out. 

Robb's problems are first of all that he fears Tywin.

He admits it right there in the books when the option to confront Tywin head on is presented. He would do very much like Roose in trying to take on Tywin unaware and fail, and then would very likely try and press for exactly the weakness that Tywin presented because Robb would take it to be his lucky ticket. He would commit his forces for the feint, very likely would do better than Roose did due to actually having his own cavalry, and would then fall for Tywin's trap either way.

Roose is still sticking for himself, and so are the Freys.

In battle they are very likely to cut thier losses the instant it looks like game over and turn back. If they are positioned on the front lines they would make a very timid advance if at all, and would likely delay to see how things unfold. Right there between those two you have about a third of Robb's total numbers pretty much sitting on the sidelines (Roose with ~3,500 and the Freys with ~3,600) to see how things turn out.

Robb had 22,000 men with the Freys, of which he left 200 at Moat Cailin and 800 at the Twins. He has ~6,000 cavalry (add Roose' cavalry but reduce the Riverlords and Mallisters who joined Robb for the Whispering Woods because in this timeline Robb had not crossed the Twins to meet them) out of a total of 21,000 available troops. 

Tywin has ~20,300 men with the 300 mounted Vale Clansmen. The rest of his force is ~7,500 cavalry, with around ~7,000 of those being well armored knights and men at arms in good armor, usually decent plate armor. Robb's cavalry is still mainly using just a mail hauberk and boiled leather. Even some of the lords are poorly armored like Roose and the Mormont girls off the top of my head. So with ~1,500 extra Lannister cavalry, and at least ~1,500 Bolton and Frey cavalry sitting on the sidelines, and the remaining Northern cavalry being significantly less armored, Robb's chances here look far worse.

Robb also likes to lead in person.

This would mean that the instant he recognises Tywins' "weakness", he is very likely to lead in person the assualt. This would mean that he would be trapped himself once the trap springs into action, which means that the Lannisters would not suffer from the execution of Ned that is happening right about now in King's Landing because they have the next Stark head hostage. Even if Tyrion dies in battle, Tywin can look at it as a plus. 

Attacking Tywin fails to get the Riverlands on the North's side.

Yes, the Riverlords would love to aid the Starks. But even if Robb wins, Jaime still has Edmure. Even if Jaime abandons the siege and retreats to the Westerlands, the Riverlands are now at the hands of an ill Hoster who has his only son and heir hostage at the hands of the Lannisters. He will never allow any action that would place him in danger. And that is assuming that Jaime does not outright attack Riverrun, takes the losses, and snags Hoster as well before going back to the Westerlands. The Riverlords cannot act against the Lannisters either way becasue the Lannisters hold all the cards.

Defeating Tywin won't mean the capture of Tywin.

Tywin is not likely to fall captive just because he lost a battle. He had a significant reserve and guard, and so did Kevan. Both were at the rear which means that they can still abandon ship and make a run for it with a good chance of escaping. Even if they lose the battle, they likely retreat either to Harrnehal if they have some forces left, or to Jaime's army, or back to the Westerlands. Either way all that Robb would manage would be to open the way for him to the capital, but...

Defeating Tywin won't get Ned back, nor would it capture Cersei, or Joffrey or his siblings or get Sansa and Arya.

Once the Lannisters in King's Landing hear of Tywin's defeat they can still abandon the capital and rush to the Westerlands. There is no power that can stop them and Robb would be too far away to snag them in time. Ned is already likely dead, and even if he isn't by some chance he is now taken to a dungeon under Casterly Rock, alongside Sansa. Arya may get to Robb, or plot would take her to Braavos all the same. The loss of the capital is just a PR victory for Robb, it simply places him in a bind because now Renly practically walk into the throne room and hang a "Mission accomplished" sign behind it. Robb lacks the power to stop him, and he won't get neither richers nor supplies from the capital before he would have to abandon it. 

Ultimately, Robb was smart in splitting up his forces to take both of the Lannister hosts by surprise (Although he was a fool to put Roose Bolton in charge, as it's clear he botched the Green Fork battle, and on purpose to boot). Defeating Jaime and capturing him meant that Riverrun could be liberated, a whole Lannister army was destroyed, and Tywin would be trapped in the Riverlands.

Now if only someone else had commanded the Stark infantry and NOT blundered its way into a disastrous defeat, it might have been even worse for Tywin.

[cgrav]

Robb splitting his army was a success only because Tywin underestimated him at the outset, and wisely didn't muster the full force that he could have. Even though it might have seemed like a genius move upon reading, distraction it's an extremely basic tactic and one that he could only have gotten away with that first time. From then on, anyone would know that if they saw less than ~15,000 troops, it was not the real army.

unfortunately, basic tactics were the full extent of Robb's military ability. Robb was facing a vastly superior opponent who could exert force in ways that were completely unforeseeable to him.

While it's circular to say that Robb had to die because he did die, it is proper argumentation to say that the Red Wedding revealed Robb's very significant weaknesses. Even if we pretend that we're not talking about literature, Tywin had such advantages that Robb's chances of ultimate victory were minuscule. 

[Nyrhex]

14 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Ultimately, Robb was smart in splitting up his forces to take both of the Lannister hosts by surprise (Although he was a fool to put Roose Bolton in charge, as it's clear he botched the Green Fork battle, and on purpose to boot). Defeating Jaime and capturing him meant that Riverrun could be liberated, a whole Lannister army was destroyed, and Tywin would be trapped in the Riverlands.

Now if only someone else had commanded the Stark infantry and NOT blundered its way into a disastrous defeat, it might have been even worse for Tywin.

IMHO, and I've said it before, Robb ordering Roose to engage Tywin was itself a mistake. Even greater than how Roose handeled the battle (regardless of it being a botch or intentional). Tywin was already marching north of the Ruby Ford, why would you need to engage him in the first place when this is a feint? The entire concept of a feint means that you are making something appear to be the main attack, without it actually being so. That feint cost him a quarter of his men. Instead Robb's plan is that Roose would take a tenth of the cavalry and try and to the same thing that Robb did not think he could do with his entire forces. Where is the sense in that? What was he expecting to happen? For Roose to make a surprise dash with infantry carrying heavy gear? Against an enemy Robb himself admits would likely not be taken by surprise? It was never going to work and it's not clear why Robb bothered with it in the first place. It was a horrible plan either way you look at it and it was just throwing away lives.

Tywin was already writing off the Freys as a non-factor for some reason. He did not even bother to correct his planning after his outriders telling him the day before the Battle of the Green Fork that the Freys have joined Robb's cause. All Robb had to do was leave someone with the orders to pretend to lay siege to the Twins. It's what Tywin half expects already, and the instant he draws near just cross the Twins and avoid battle alltogether. There was no point in any of the lives lost. Tywin is even further north than in canon now, and has even less of a chance to rush to the aid of Jaime. He can't cross the Twins anymore than Robb could because he does not have the time nor the resources to do it. Hell, with a little luck Robb could finish up with Jaime and retake Harrenhal before Tywin could return south of the Ruby Ford, effectively cutting him off from any defensive position aside of the capital. With constant Stark raids on Tywin's marching columns, Tywin would have arrived at the capital with an army broken in army and spirit, and find themselves locked in a city that cannot sustain itself, let alone the army. 

Robb has nothing to fear of a Lannister army in the capital. He was never going to take it by storm either way since if he did, the Lannisters have no reason not to slit his father's throat, as well of his sisters'. He would have had to open negotiations either way. He would be in a position of stength with an army inside or not, since either way there is no food or fresh troops arriving anytime soon. All he would have to worry about is if the defenders sally out to try and lift the siege, or if the Lannisters load up as many people as possible on the fleet in the capital and try and make it around Westeros. 

At worse Tywin beats him to Harrenhal and everything stays the same aside of the fact that Robb had not lost a single soldier from his foot. His total losses are in the hundreds, while the Lannisters have lost an army and are split from the west.