Doran didn't send Quentyn to Meereen

[Blackfyre Bastard]

19 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Cheers

Does Xaro mention glass candles?

Certainly. Here's the rant and the first ever mention of glass candles in the series:

Quote

[...] Xaro had learned that Pyat Pree was gathering the surviving warlocks together to work ill on her.
Dany had laughed when he told her. “Was it not you who told me warlocks were no more than old soldiers, vainly boasting of forgotten deeds and lost prowess?”
Xaro looked troubled. “And so it was, then. But now? I am less certain. It is said that the glass candles are burning in the house of Urrathon Night-Walker, that have not burned in a hundred years. Ghost grass grows in the Garden of Gehane, phantom tortoises have been seen carrying messages between the windowless houses on Warlock’s Way, and all the rats in the city are
chewing off their tails. The wife of Mathos Mallarawan, who once mocked a warlock’s drab moth-eaten robe, has gone mad and will wear no clothes at all. Even fresh-washed silks make her feel as though a thousand insects were crawling on her skin. And Blind Sybassion the Eater of Eyes can see again, or so his slaves do swear. A man must wonder.” He sighed. [...]

ACoK Chapter 63, Daenerys V.

Back at the time of publication, everything mentioned (save the ghost grass) was cryptic. I wonder if the phantom tortoises and the Eater of Eyes serve a useful function as the glass candles serve as Planetos iphones or if they have some hidden meaning.

ETA Phantom tortoises seem to function as ravens delivering messages. They need to be phantom since the houses are windowless, duh.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Update (I'll add this to the main post, too):

ETA: this is kind of in the wrong thread, but whatever.

Quote

"I have known the truth since I was four-and-ten, since the day that I went to my father's solar to give him a good night kiss, and found him gone. My mother had sent for him, I learned later. He'd left a candle burning. When I went to blow it out, I found a letter lying incomplete beside it, a letter to my brother Quentyn, off at Yronwood. My father told Quentyn that he must do all that his maester and his master-at-arms required of him, because 'one day you will sit where I sit and rule all Dorne, and a ruler must be strong of mind and body.'" A tear crept down Arianne's soft cheek. "My father's words, written in his own hand. They burned themselves into my memory. I cried myself to sleep that night, and many nights thereafter."

-- A Feast for Crows, The Soiled Knight

Quote

"Why not? You favor him and always have. He looks like you, he thinks like you, and you mean to give him Dorne, don't trouble to deny it. I read your letter." The words still burned as bright as fire in her memory. "'One day you will sit where I sit and rule all Dorne,' you wrote him. Tell me, Father, when did you decide to disinherit me? Was it the day that Quentyn was born, or the day that I was born? What did I ever do to make you hate me so?" To her fury, there were tears in her eyes.
"I never hated you." Prince Doran's voice was parchment-thin, and full of grief. "Arianne, you do not understand."
"Do you deny you wrote those words?"
"No. That was when Quentyn first went to Yronwood. I did intend for him to follow me, yes. I had other plans for you."

-- A Feast for Crows, The Princess in the Tower

So Quentyn was older than I thought when he was fostered: 290 AC, or just before; he was 8 or 9, 7 at the youngest. Then again, maybe Jon Arryn's journey to Dorne took place later than I pegged it. (ETA: no it wasn't, it was "the year after Robert took the throne".) Or maybe the whole tinfoil was bullshit. (ETA: probably.)

[Lockjaw of House Boltagon]

I sort of agree with this theory. I think Doran realized that Quentyn was lost to him since the moment he delivered him to the Yronwoods. The guy was more Yronwood than Martell, he thought fondly about the Yronwoods as opposed to the Sand Snakes and Arianne (he thought they were gonna laugh at him if he failed).

So my thinking is that the Yronwoods really were planning on marrying him  to Gwynneth, and that, ironically, Arianne was right all along: Lord Anders really was scheming to use Quentyn to rob Sunspear from her. 

I think Doran saw this too, and that's why he talks about sacrifices and playing with blood coin or whatever when he tells Melario about fostering Quentyn with the Yronwoods. In cyvasse, I assume, you have to sacrifice some pieces in order to win, as in chess, and Quentyn was such a piece. Doran had to sacrifice him to stop the Yronwoods' scheming. And he succeeded, sort of: Lord Anders lost his heir and his hostage, and Dany got the message that Dorne was sympathetic to her cause. 

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

12 minutes ago, Lyin' Ned said:

I sort of agree with this theory. I think Doran realized that Quentyn was lost to him since the moment he delivered him to the Yronwoods. The guy was more Yronwood than Martell, he thought fondly about the Yronwoods as opposed to the Sand Snakes and Arianne (he thought they were gonna laugh at him if he failed).

So my thinking is that the Yronwoods really were planning on marrying him  to Gwynneth, and that, ironically, Arianne was right all along: Lord Anders really was scheming to use Quentyn to rob Sunspear from her. 

I think Doran saw this too, and that's why he talks about sacrifices and playing with blood coin or whatever when he tells Melario about fostering Quentyn with the Yronwoods. In cyvasse, I assume, you have to sacrifice some pieces in order to win, as in chess, and Quentyn was such a piece. Doran had to sacrifice him to stop the Yronwoods' scheming. And he succeeded, sort of: Lord Anders lost his heir and his hostage, and Dany got the message that Dorne was sympathetic to her cause. 

Yeah, but surely Doran wouldn't go so far as to risk his son's life into the bargain. That's why I think he didn't expect Quentyn would have to go to Slaver's Bay in the middle of a war.

[Lockjaw of House Boltagon]

4 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Yeah, but surely Doran wouldn't go so far as to risk his son's life into the bargain. That's why I think he didn't expect Quentyn would have to go to Slaver's Bay in the middle of a war.

Could be. Getting to SB really was a long shot and no one could've foreseen Drink's idea to join the Windblown, and much less the Tattered Prince's scheme to turn cloak. 

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

4 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Update (I'll add this to the main post, too):

ETA: this is kind of in the wrong thread, but whatever.

-- A Feast for Crows, The Soiled Knight

-- A Feast for Crows, The Princess in the Tower

So Quentyn was older than I thought when he was fostered: 290 AC, or just before; he was 8 or 9, 7 at the youngest. Then again, maybe Jon Arryn's journey to Dorne took place later than I pegged it. (ETA: no it wasn't, it was "the year after Robert took the throne".) Or maybe the whole tinfoil was bullshit. (ETA: probably.)

I think what Doran means is that, when Quentyn first went to Yronwood, he intended for Quentyn to follow him in the rule of Dorne, while Arianne was supposed to marry Viserys. Not necessarily that the letter Arianne had read had been written shortly after Quentyn had left. Keep in mind the normal age for becoming a page, or for being fostered away, and compare that with the opinion everyone expresses about Quentyn's age. He had been younger than the "normal standard".

[Ellenandrew]

On 10/17/2016 at 0:20 AM, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Me too. Thinking about it, it's a little curious that the fandom doesn't seem to have taken much of an interest in Jon Arryn. I don't know of any theories about him, but he must have been privy to all sorts of secrets. And we still don't know what motivated him and the other great Lords to start preparing to rebel in the first place.

It would be nice to think it was honor but this is asoiaf we are talking about.

Also, I don't think that Doran is using glass candles. He probably know of their existence and purpose but thinks, like everyone else, that they are useless right now. He might be more interested in the future.

On 10/17/2016 at 0:20 AM, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

the Arianne/Aegon plot is going to be very well advanced before Dorne gets news of Quentyn's failure and death

He jumped on the Aegon boat while still thinking Quentyn was doing ok in his quest, right? That implies that he somehow thinks that two claimants of the throne are going to be nice to each other because they married into the same family, otherwise he will have a child on each side of a war and that would be awful, sister vs brother. So how is that clever? I am beginning to think I am misunderstanding important things. Pls help.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

17 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I think what Doran means is that, when Quentyn first went to Yronwood, he intended for Quentyn to follow him in the rule of Dorne, while Arianne was supposed to marry Viserys. Not necessarily that the letter Arianne had read had been written shortly after Quentyn had left. Keep in mind the normal age for becoming a page, or for being fostered away, and compare that with the opinion everyone expresses about Quentyn's age. He had been younger than the "normal standard".

Good point, Sweetrobin is set to be fostered at 5 or 6 and nobody seems to think that's weird. In fact, the only one who thinks it's odd is Lysa, and she's crazy.

13 hours ago, Ellenandrew said:

He jumped on the Aegon boat while still thinking Quentyn was doing ok in his quest, right? That implies that he somehow thinks that two claimants of the throne are going to be nice to each other because they married into the same family, otherwise he will have a child on each side of a war and that would be awful, sister vs brother. So how is that clever? I am beginning to think I am misunderstanding important things. Pls help.

I don't think Doran has jumped on the Aegon boat at all, but he has to do something when Aegon arrives. His hand is forced. Consider:

• Aegon's invasion has already started
• Jon Connington reached out to Dorne
• If he's real, then Aegon is Doran's nephew
• And his claim supercedes Daenerys's

He can't ignore him. If he does, and Aegon takes the throne, then he's going to be in a lot of trouble. Plus, if Aegon is who he says he is, then he's family, and Doran owes him his support.

The purpose of Arianne's mission is merely to sound Aegon out. Given how cautious and sneaky Doran is, we can't even guarantee that he really will go to war if Arianne gives the signal. But even if Arianne's signal really will decide the Dornish invasion: if Aegon is real, and asking for Doran's help, then Doran simply can't refuse him.

One thing everybody seems to have forgotten is that Doran or Arianne will most likely tell Aegon and Connington about the Quentyn plot. Why wouldn't they? It makes Doran look good for being a Targaryen loyalist, and nobody can blame Doran for trying to support Dany rather than Aegon, because nobody knew Aegon was alive.

Bear in mind, none of them have any reason to think Daenerys will try to usurp her nephew's throne. (As far as they know right now, she seems happy to stay in Meereen.) They don't know she's seen a prophecy about "slaying lies" and a "mummer's dragon", nor that she's going to have Tyrion manipulating her into fighting Aegon, for the lulz. (If that is where the story goes - again, everybody seems to have forgotten that it's by no means certain that there'll be a second Dance of the Dragons.) They anticipated her support before, and they most likely still do.

Nor does Doran think Arianne will marry Aegon - he doesn't appreciate the depths of her shallowness and jealousy.

Nor does anybody know that Quentyn's dead (or is he? O_o), or that Gerris Drinkwater is going to spin the news of Quentyn's death so it makes it sound like it was Daenerys's fault.

Dany could be poised to mistrust Aegon because of prophecy and Tyrion, and Aegon might mistrust her because he thinks she's mad and she killed his lovely new wife's brother - his cousin, also.

If everything goes wrong it'll be because of the personal foibles of the various players, and misunderstandings and such, and thus won't be something Doran could have foreseen easily.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

5 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Good point, Sweetrobin is set to be fostered at 5 or 6 and nobody seems to think that's weird. In fact, the only one who thinks it's odd is Lysa, and she's crazy.

I don't think Doran has jumped on the Aegon boat at all, but he has to do something when Aegon arrives. His hand is forced. Consider:

• Aegon's invasion has already started
• Jon Connington reached out to Dorne
• If he's real, then Aegon is Doran's nephew
• And his claim supercedes Daenerys's

While I agree that Doran cannot ignore Aegon, nor would he ever have, considering the ties to Elia, the last point you mention is not necessarily true.

Yandel wrote, based on historical documents, that Prince Viserys had become Aerys II's heir after the Trident, but prior to the Sack. Following Aerys's death, Viserys was crowned on Dragonstone, and after the birth of Daenerys, Viserys made her his official heir by granting her the title "Princess of Dragonstone". So, following Aerys's proclamation, and Viserys's proclamation, Daenerys would be the next heir to the throne.

Aegon, on the other hand, is the eldest son of Rhaegar, who had been Aerys's heir. One could argue that the information Aerys based his decison on (the believe that the Dornish had betrayed him) was either false or incomplete, thereby indicating that Aegon should still inherit over Viserys and Viserys's heirs. One could also argue that Viserys named Daenerys his heir without the knowledge of Aegon's survival, thereby making his proclamation of an heir invalid.

What we get, is the female, proclaimed heir (Daenerys), against the eldest male from a direct male line (Aegon), which is rather similar to the Dance of the Dragons, where Rhaenyra was the proclaimed heir, and Aegon the eldest male from a direct line. Considering the hints that we'll be getting somewhat of a second Dance, such parallels are rather interesting.

 

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Mmm... but does anybody in Westeros know that Viserys named Dany his heir?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

5 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Mmm... but does anybody in Westeros know that Viserys named Dany his heir?

Probably. Who else was he going to name?  

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Well, without kids, he didn't need to name anyone - Dany was his de-facto heir, so naming her would've been a bit superfluous.

Once Aegon reappears, that does rather complicate things, doesn't it?...

I do hope we're not just in for a second Dance of Dragons, that would be lame. What's the point of writing the Princess and the Queen if we're just going to see it happen again?

[Ellenandrew]

Thank you so much for explaining, it actually makes a lot of sense now 

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

1 hour ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Well, without kids, he didn't need to name anyone - Dany was his de-facto heir, so naming her would've been a bit superfluous.

That your eldest son inherits after you seems de-facto as well, yet the Targaryen Kings seem to have specifically named an heir (Prince or Princess of Dragonstone) every single time the succession was altered, no matter how logical the succession was at the time.

 

1 hour ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Once Aegon reappears, that does rather complicate things, doesn't it?...

I do hope we're not just in for a second Dance of Dragons, that would be lame. What's the point of writing the Princess and the Queen if we're just going to see it happen again?

Aegon's reappearance certainly does complicate things. Because a legal claim is one thing, but very important as well is the support from the lords of the Seven Kingdoms. And who is more likely to get the majority of the support? That Aegon is Rhaegar's son, and that Rhaegar is still remembered fondly, might be an indication that more lords are willing to support Aegon than Daenerys. Or not. Daenerys has dragons, which will certainly appeal to others as a way to power. However, instead of an hired army, she brings an army of foreigners with her, formers slaves, whom she might allow to stay in Westeros. That might take aback potential supporters. Daenerys has the advantage that no one has reason to doubt her heritage, but if Aegon gains Doran's support, the Lords of Westeros will see this as Doran agreeing that Aegon is really Rhaegar's son by Elia, that might just be enough to convince a few doubting lords to fight for him instead of someone else.

While I do think that there are hints towards a second Dance-like war, I highly doubt that it will be a clear-cut repetition of the first civil war. The situation is different, to start with, and the parties fighting as well. How many other kings remain standing when both Aegon and Daenerys are in Westeros? Who are the Three Queens Baelish speaks of, and how many of them still hold power by that time? We cannot possibly say, but while the Dance had two claimants, temporarily raised to four (Moon of Three Kings), at the same time (five in total if we count Aegon the Younger following Rhaenyra's death), the War of the Five Kings has long surpassed that. Besides, at least one major house that did not fight in the first Dance will most definitly fight during the second (the Tyrells). And let's not forget that the conflict we see during the main series is much more complicated that the first Dance was. It isn't just two people fighting over the Iron Throne, at the moment. The Lannisters, the Tyrells, and two Targaryen factions want to hold power over the Iron Throne, while other conflicts in the North continue to be ongoing, and new conflicts in the Reach are arising.

A parallel does not mean an exact repetition  

[Tini]

12 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Good point, Sweetrobin is set to be fostered at 5 or 6 and nobody seems to think that's weird. In fact, the only one who thinks it's odd is Lysa, and she's crazy.

I don't think Doran has jumped on the Aegon boat at all, but he has to do something when Aegon arrives. His hand is forced. Consider:

• Aegon's invasion has already started
• Jon Connington reached out to Dorne
• If he's real, then Aegon is Doran's nephew
• And his claim supercedes Daenerys's

He can't ignore him. If he does, and Aegon takes the throne, then he's going to be in a lot of trouble. Plus, if Aegon is who he says he is, then he's family, and Doran owes him his support.

The purpose of Arianne's mission is merely to sound Aegon out. Given how cautious and sneaky Doran is, we can't even guarantee that he really will go to war if Arianne gives the signal. But even if Arianne's signal really will decide the Dornish invasion: if Aegon is real, and asking for Doran's help, then Doran simply can't refuse him.

One thing everybody seems to have forgotten is that Doran or Arianne will most likely tell Aegon and Connington about the Quentyn plot. Why wouldn't they? It makes Doran look good for being a Targaryen loyalist, and nobody can blame Doran for trying to support Dany rather than Aegon, because nobody knew Aegon was alive.

Bear in mind, none of them have any reason to think Daenerys will try to usurp her nephew's throne. (As far as they know right now, she seems happy to stay in Meereen.) They don't know she's seen a prophecy about "slaying lies" and a "mummer's dragon", nor that she's going to have Tyrion manipulating her into fighting Aegon, for the lulz. (If that is where the story goes - again, everybody seems to have forgotten that it's by no means certain that there'll be a second Dance of the Dragons.) They anticipated her support before, and they most likely still do.

Nor does Doran think Arianne will marry Aegon - he doesn't appreciate the depths of her shallowness and jealousy.

Nor does anybody know that Quentyn's dead (or is he? O_o), or that Gerris Drinkwater is going to spin the news of Quentyn's death so it makes it sound like it was Daenerys's fault.

Dany could be poised to mistrust Aegon because of prophecy and Tyrion, and Aegon might mistrust her because he thinks she's mad and she killed his lovely new wife's brother - his cousin, also.

If everything goes wrong it'll be because of the personal foibles of the various players, and misunderstandings and such, and thus won't be something Doran could have foreseen easily.

I always thought that Doran and Arianne will keep Quentyn's mission secret. Doran kept a number of things secret he should've told Arianne. Or the Dornish at large.

But you're right. They will be forced to come clean - not because it'll make them look particularly good, but because it would look awfully bad if Aegon heard about the plot from anybody but them. And, if Quentyn reaches Daenerys, Aegon's bound to find out.

Doran managed to send Quentyn off without raising suspicion. But once Quentyn makes his offer to Daenerys, his mission is no longer secret - and word of it will reach Westeros. Word will not only reach Aegon, it will reach the Lannisters and Tyrells as well.  Doran must be aware of that.

He needs allies - Daenerys or Aegon, either will do. As Daenerys isn't coming, Aegon will have to do.

Arianne is shallow, and jealous. But she now understands what her father has set in motion. She won't maliciously complicate her father's life by marrying Aegon.

Aegon himself has no reason to marry her - unless he fears he'll lose Dornish support otherwise. Would learning of Quentyn's mission be enough to make him go for marriage to Arianne?

 

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

24 minutes ago, Tini said:

Arianne is shallow, and jealous. But she now understands what her father has set in motion. She won't maliciously complicate her father's life by marrying Aegon.

Aegon himself has no reason to marry her - unless he fears he'll lose Dornish support otherwise. Would learning of Quentyn's mission be enough to make him go for marriage to Arianne?

Well, you'd hope Arianne would be smart enough not to ruin everything, but I think the groundwork's definitely been laid for her to do so. What's truly tragic about it, if that is what's going to happen, is that she'd be only repeating her mistakes - the mistakes that she's already learned from. She's learned that she has a weakness for a pretty face, and that her jealousy of her brother brought nothing but trouble. She's even quite explicit in her interior monologue about it. She knows exactly what she should guard against - but she still seems like she's jealous of Quentyn, and she's about to meet the prettiest feller in the land. Will she hold fast to the lessons learned, or will she find a way to justify her temptations? It could go either way.

As for why Aegon would marry her, that's tougher to answer. He may need the support - Sunspear is still a great power, and who else is he going to marry? He has to marry someone from a big, important house, and they're all taken: the Stark girls are nowhere to be found, Shireen Baratheon and Asha Greyjoy probably aren't good options, there's no Arryn or Tully girls, Margaery Tyrell is spoken for, and Cersei Lannister won't want to disinherit her son.

His best options are his cousin or his aunt, unless he marries someone from a lesser house, but even the rich and powerful lesser houses would make poor matches. There doesn't seem to be a Hightower girl available; marrying a Frey would be terrible PR. I don't want to go through every single house, but you see my point.

Arianne, on the other hand, is a Princess of Dorne, fertile, beautiful, noble, etc, etc; the rest of the realm would find her suitably impressive, and she'd bring Dorne's money and military might with her.

Daenerys has money and military might, too; in fact, she has everything Arianne has, plus three dragons. Daenerys is therefore the better option, but a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush - Arianne is there, right now, whereas Daenerys is in Meereen, and looks set to stay there. Plus, if Aegon thinks Daenerys will soon be wed to Quentyn, he may reason that Arianne is his only option.

And that's just the rational case for Arianne: we've already seen that she's a capable seductress, and he's a teenage boy, and increasingly willful. I'd say it's pretty good odds they get hitched.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

2 hours ago, Ellenandrew said:

Thank you so much for explaining, it actually makes a lot of sense now 

You're welcome

[Tini]

18 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Well, you'd hope Arianne would be smart enough not to ruin everything, but I think the groundwork's definitely been laid for her to do so. What's truly tragic about it, if that is what's going to happen, is that she'd be only repeating her mistakes - the mistakes that she's already learned from. She's learned that she has a weakness for a pretty face, and that her jealousy of her brother brought nothing but trouble. She's even quite explicit in her interior monologue about it. She knows exactly what she should guard against - but she still seems like she's jealous of Quentyn, and she's about to meet the prettiest feller in the land. Will she hold fast to the lessons learned, or will she find a way to justify her temptations? It could go either way.

As for why Aegon would marry her, that's tougher to answer. He may need the support - Sunspear is still a great power, and who else is he going to marry? He has to marry someone from a big, important house, and they're all taken: the Stark girls are nowhere to be found, Shireen Baratheon and Asha Greyjoy probably aren't good options, there's no Arryn or Tully girls, Margaery Tyrell is spoken for, and Cersei Lannister won't want to disinherit her son.

His best options are his cousin or his aunt, unless he marries someone from a lesser house, but even the rich and powerful lesser houses would make poor matches. There doesn't seem to be a Hightower girl available; marrying a Frey would be terrible PR. I don't want to go through every single house, but you see my point.

Arianne, on the other hand, is a Princess of Dorne, fertile, beautiful, noble, etc, etc; the rest of the realm would find her suitably impressive, and she'd bring Dorne's money and military might with her.

Daenerys has money and military might, too; in fact, she has everything Arianne has, plus three dragons. Daenerys is therefore the better option, but a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush - Arianne is there, right now, whereas Daenerys is in Meereen, and looks set to stay there. Plus, if Aegon thinks Daenerys will soon be wed to Quentyn, he may reason that Arianne is his only option.

And that's just the rational case for Arianne: we've already seen that she's a capable seductress, and he's a teenage boy, and increasingly willful. I'd say it's pretty good odds they get hitched.

Marrying his aunt would remove her as a contender, and give him dragons, so she is the best option. And she might still be an option even though she's married. The Dragon, after all, has three heads. She isn't in Westeros, but Aegon can afford to wait.

Cersei is an option - she wouldn't be a willing bride, for sure, but that's not required. Should Aegon catch her in KL, he might not give her a choice. Cersei is not out of her child-bearing years yet, and any child of Cersei's would have a claim to Casterly Rock - should the child's father be able to enforce the child's claims. 

The same goes for Margaery - Tommen is no insurmountable issue. Neither were Renly and Joffrey.

I think it more likely Margaery and Cersei would end up married to some treasure hunters following Aegon, though. He needs to reward them for their efforts, after all. If they succeed. Aegon's bride doesn't necessarily need to come from an Old House, she doesn't even need to come from a Westerosi House at all. Arianne's mother did not.

What does Aegon stand to gain from marriage to Arianne ?  Elia's son (which is what he considers himself to be) has no reason to doubt that Dorne's monetary and military might will be with him.  Only the Quentyn issue might raise doubts.

At this point, it makes no sense for him to marry someone who is, whose family is, loyal to him. Not while a marriage might bring someone over to his side whose loyalty is uncertain, or non-existing. 

His cousin Arianne would be of more use to him as an ally, as the Princess of Dorne. More use than her brothers, one of whom is not yet grown, while the other might have become a contender for the Iron Throne - and who was slated to become Prince of Dorne if Arianne were to become Queen of Westeros as per the original marriage pact.

It might be better for Aegon to leave well enough alone - and arrange a marriage for Arianne to another potential ally.

I agree that Arianne and Aegon may be stupid enough to get hitched. And Quentyn's mission may provide the leverage that makes Jon Connington agree to their marriage. Your post makes it seem inevitable. I guess I just don't want to see more Dornish stupidity.  

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Well, nothing's inevitable, but I do think that, if it happens, the groundwork has been laid. But who knows what surprises lie in wait?

[Maester Saramello]

Good theory but you have a hole in your tinfoil. The reason was given as to why Quentyn was at the yronwoods. 

Dorans brother oberyn had problems with a yronwood. They settled it with a sword right. After giving each other a few good cuts they made amends. However, oberyns cuts healed while Yronwood's features. He eventually died from them. It is thought that Oberyn(sorry for spelling it's my phone auto correct) had laced his blade with poison. Thus, he was named the Red Viper. While oberyn fled to the free cities er the death, doran had to pay blood for blood. This, he allowed for his son, years later, to be fostered at yronwood. It's in the wiki.