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If Renly won what would happen to Shireen, Davos and Joffrey's Kingsguard


Oakhearts head

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Most agree that Renly Baratheon's death at the hands of Melisandre's shadow baby was arguably the biggest example of deus ex machina in the entire series.

Assuming everything had gone to plan for Renly and his massive host, in that Storms End was taken with minor casualties and Stannis was killed during the fighting, and Renly's forces would later go on to take Kings Landing, I'm curious as to what fate would have been in store for the following characters:

Shireen Baratheon:

While I'm unsure if Renly would be merciful to Myrcella and Tommen, there doesn't seem to  be any reason to execute Shireen. In this case, she would be the "disfigured" daughter of the brother who was soundly defeated, in an especially patriarchal society. Her uncle is also well-known and well liked at court, so she has that going against her as well. Renly often bragged about his generosity towards fallen enemies, so while I doubt she would ever sit the Iron Throne, would inheritance of Dragonstone or Storms End be out the of the question for her?

Joffrey's Kingsguard:

As we know, Renly had created his own new institution of the Kingsguard, renaming it the 'Rainbow Guard.' If we conclude that some members from both groups died during the taking of Kings Landing, I guess some from Joffrey's Kingsguard would have been pardoned and perhaps joined Renly's own Kingsguard, ala Jaime and Barristan taking new oaths for Robert after the death of Aerys II. In such a case, Arys Oakheart and Balon Swann seem most likely as both of their houses fought for Renly's side during the WOTFK. There are some complications though; Jaime, who had recently been named Lord Commander at the time, likely would have still been a captive in the Riverlands. As for the others like Sandor Clegane, Mandon Moore, Osmund Kettleblack, etc. would punishments be in store for them (the Wall or a noose)? Would they be pardoned or released from their oaths? 

Davos Seaworth:

Stannis' main adviser, who Renly doesn't seem to take too seriously (on the surface anyway). If Davos wasn't killed during the seizing of Storms End, is it in Davos' character to bend the knee under such circumstances? Would Renly have use for Davos or would it basically be a "go back to your hovel, Onion Knight" situation?


Any thoughts? 

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Renly's death was less deus ex machina, and more poor world building and poor writing on Martin's part. Martin favors taking things to extremes. So Renly has the best chance because he has an alliance with a house that has more troops than any two other regions combined. How does he die? In a one-time magic event because it makes life easier. Then later the Tyrells need to suffer all the bad luck in the world with enemies that have to roll 20s in a row just to knock them down a bit to a more managable size, because Martin wrote them as too overpowered. 

Assuming that everything had gone according to plan for Renly for the battle is assuming that Mel has a magic trick that gives her visions of the future, but her Shadowbinding fails to work. This begs the question of why is she getting a false vision? Surely if there is no future where Renly dies at Storm's End, Stannis does not sail there in the first place because Mel did not see it. You can't have it both ways, you can't have Stannis follow Mel's vision and then that vision not coming true because now you feel it is cheap. Prophecy is not meant to be fair, and once it was made Renly was dead unless Stannis chose not to follow the prophecy. But he did not have a chance because Martin is working with self-fulfilling prophecies, where Mel also gets a future from the same timeline and reads it as a second timeline, giving Stannis no hope but to go with what he thinks is the best one. And like Oedipus he ends up fullfilling a prophecy by trying to avoid it, because of a lack of knowledge that the prophecy is banking on for him to make the wrong choice.

But systemic issues and bad tropes aside, the question is about what we know about Renly, and what we can surmise regarding the most likely fate of the persons in question should Renly win and sit the Iron Throne. For this we handwave logical loopholes and go with the presented scenario.

Shireen, Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen are all threats to Renly's rule. We know from his opinion of what should have been done with the Targ children that it is most likely that those threats would very likely be in mortal danger from Renly. Sex or disfigurment are irrelevant. They have a claim, Renly usurped them. While they live they are a threat, it's as simple as that. Renly never shows care or affection for any of his kin, and Catelyn even comments "You have a cheerful way of grieving," said Catelyn, whose distress was not feigned. on Renly's remarks regarding the needed killing of Stannis. Ironically the twincest trio have a better chance to survive if Renly adopts Stannis' twincest propaganda, and manages to convince the masses of it. No claim, no threat. A minor increase in survical chances, but better than what is expected for Shireen. Her calim can't be handwaved. Renly is a rebel, a traitor and an usurper. As Stannis is ahead of Renly to inherit Robert, his daughter inherits his claim. 

Joffrey's Kingsguard have no interesting fate. Those who would not die fighting would already have the Rainbow Gurad as replacements. They would likely be sent off, freed of thier vows to a now defunct order. 

Davos Seaworth is a nobody. High in Stannis' council, at the end of the day he is still a mere landed knight, and if he is to bend the knee after the battle and return to the fold he should suffer no penalty. 

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17 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

Shireen, Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen are all threats to Renly's rule. We know from his opinion of what should have been done with the Targ children that it is most likely that those threats would very likely be in mortal danger from Renly. Sex or disfigurment are irrelevant. They have a claim, Renly usurped them. While they live they are a threat, it's as simple as that. Renly never shows care or affection for any of his kin, and Catelyn even comments "You have a cheerful way of grieving," said Catelyn, whose distress was not feigned. on Renly's remarks regarding the needed killing of Stannis. Ironically the twincest trio have a better chance to survive if Renly adopts Stannis' twincest propaganda, and manages to convince the masses of it. No claim, no threat. A minor increase in survical chances, but better than what is expected for Shireen. Her calim can't be handwaved. Renly is a rebel, a traitor and an usurper. As Stannis is ahead of Renly to inherit Robert, his daughter inherits his claim. 

In your opinion, would Edric Storm fall into the same category as Robert and Stannis' trueborn children? In Westeros, typically an acknowledged bastard child of a King or Lord is ahead of said King/Lord's younger sibling in the line of succession, or am I mistaken?

I'm not sure if I agree with you in regards to Shireen. Renly was genuinely surprised when Stannis pressed his claim and until that point I don't believe he considered him a threat that needed to be dealt with. From what we know of Shireen, she just doesn't seem like the type to seriously press her claim and again, considering that Stannis' small army would have been defeated in this scenario, she wouldn't have much of a choice to bend the knee anyway.

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Renly' s death isn't a Deus Ex Machina, it's a reverse Deus Ex. It ensures Stannis is defeated at Blackwater instead of victory. It created just the opportunity the Lannisters needed to seal an alliance to win.

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1 minute ago, PCK said:

Renly' s death isn't a Deus Ex Machina, it's a reverse Deus Ex. It ensures Stannis is defeated at Blackwater instead of victory. It created just the opportunity the Lannisters needed to seal an alliance to win.

All behold the nitpick of nitpicks.

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2 minutes ago, Oakhearts head said:

In your opinion, would Edric Storm fall into the same category as Robert and Stannis' trueborn children? In Westeros, typically an acknowledged bastard child of a King or Lord is ahead of said King/Lord's younger sibling in the line of succession, or am I mistaken?

I'm not sure if I agree with you in regards to Shireen. Renly was genuinely surprised when Stannis pressed his claim and until that point I don't believe he considered him a threat that needed to be dealt with. From what we know of Shireen, she just doesn't seem like the type to seriously press her claim and again, considering that Stannis' small army would have been defeated in this scenario, she wouldn't have much of a choice to bend the knee anyway.

Edric no, as he is known as a bastard. Acknowledged bastards have zero claim, they do not have a place in the line of succession. The only difference is that they are acknowledged bastards and thus have the noble bastard name of the region, and may expect better standing and treatment thanks to thier relation to a noble. It is not uncommon for an acknowledged noble bastard to be treated similarly to a trueborn noble for most of his life, only difference is the lack of legal claim to inheritence.

And Renly being surprised is not what is in the scenario. Had Stannis chosen not to press his claim, he would have acknowledged Renly's claim as rightfull. Had he done so Renly has nothing to fear, unless sitting on the Iron Throne turns him paranoid and he starts to suspect that Stannis is only biding his time. If Stannis rejects his claim and passes it over to Renly rather than to Shireen, Shireen does not inherit it. She would inherit Dragonstone, and if Renly dies without issue Stannis would re-inherit the kingdom, and could then pass it down to her. Any attempt by Renly to take guardianship over Shireen and sign a paper in her name, or to raise her to love him in the hopes that she willingly does so when she comes of age, would still end with the same basic problem that Renly usurped her title and at any point in future she or her children could try and press thier claim. Legal or no, people would join if Renly's rule ends up with enemies. And you can be sure that he would end up with enemies because he starts off with eliminating Tywin's daughter and grandchildren, and at least one son (unless he captures Tyrion and uses him as leverage in negotiations). Even if the Lannisters are defeated, that is an entire region that would not go down quietly and unless Renly would go full total war and destroy the entire house of Lannister including cadet branches, it would remain a problem. And any such total war would of course lead to a wider range of houses and factions that would suffer and would have reason to back any who would depose the tyrant.

But Stannis did press his claim, he did not give up on it. Renly made an error of judgement. One of many, but a critical one. Instead of "only" placing him on track to kill the twincest trio, he now also had to deal with Stannis, and ergo Shireen as well. Shireen's wants or character are irrelevant. Whomever she married to could convince her to press her claim, her children could try and press thier claim at a later date. Renly was all for murdering Viserys and Dany when they were a kid and a babe, he did not know them, he only knew that they pose a threat. I think in the proposed scenario it would be entirely out of character for Renly to not set up an "accident" for Shireen at the very least.

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Shireen would have been sent to the silent sisters and any man that didn't bend the knee would have been sent to the Wall. Renly would have definitely given most enemy combatants the opportunity to bend the knee. He only need to outright kill those who were politically dangerous to him.

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1 minute ago, bent branch said:

Shireen would have been sent to the silent sisters and any man that didn't bend the knee would have been sent to the Wall. Renly would have definitely given most enemy combatants the opportunity to bend the knee. He only need to outright kill those who were politically dangerous to him.

There is a problem with the Silent Sisters. Shireen is too young to make a vow, and any vow made at sword point, now or later, could be challenged. She was not sent there for a crime, and the Silent Sisters' vow is not enforced by a death penalty on breaking it. So even if she makes a vow there is little stopping her from leaving the order. You can also send men to take the Maester's vow, and it is the same. IIRC Randyll Tarly even calls it out when he reasons why he is sending Sam to the Wall rather than to the Citadle - you can go back on a Maester's vow and nothing happens to your claim. The NW forces you to abandon any claim you had, and either you choose it or you are sent there for a crime. The only thing that a Silent Sister's vow is confirmed to break is a marriage, as the woman is now married to the faith. 

By the time Renly is marching there is already Joffrey releasing Barristan from a vow he made for life, and Robb is banking on the NW releasing Jon from his vows if he bribes them enough. Words are wind. Dead men don't give you trouble and dead girls don't press claims. Renly was pretty blatant about how he sees threats to the establishment, so I honestly don't see him resting easy with merely sending Shireen to the Silent Sisters. 

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1 hour ago, Nyrhex said:

There is a problem with the Silent Sisters. Shireen is too young to make a vow, and any vow made at sword point, now or later, could be challenged. She was not sent there for a crime, and the Silent Sisters' vow is not enforced by a death penalty on breaking it. So even if she makes a vow there is little stopping her from leaving the order. You can also send men to take the Maester's vow, and it is the same. IIRC Randyll Tarly even calls it out when he reasons why he is sending Sam to the Wall rather than to the Citadle - you can go back on a Maester's vow and nothing happens to your claim. The NW forces you to abandon any claim you had, and either you choose it or you are sent there for a crime. The only thing that a Silent Sister's vow is confirmed to break is a marriage, as the woman is now married to the faith. 

By the time Renly is marching there is already Joffrey releasing Barristan from a vow he made for life, and Robb is banking on the NW releasing Jon from his vows if he bribes them enough. Words are wind. Dead men don't give you trouble and dead girls don't press claims. Renly was pretty blatant about how he sees threats to the establishment, so I honestly don't see him resting easy with merely sending Shireen to the Silent Sisters. 

I guess I see it this way, Renly's explanation for claiming the throne is that he is the popular choice and the people are crying out for him. Because of this, I think he would want to kill as few of the nobility as possible. This would give him better optics, if you will. Renly was always going to have to kill Stannis, Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen. Each of these people have enough backing for their claim that they would remain a threat to Renly as long as they were alive. However, what backing would poor, little Shireen have? I can only think of the Florents. This family wouldn't be any real threat to Renly. Renly could claim that Shireen was his "heir" until Margaery had a baby. Then Renly could make a bethrothal between any son Margaery had. This would show that Renly had no malicious intent in his claim, he was just giving the people what they wanted. When Shireen was old enough she would be encouraged to join the Silent Sisters or become a septa the same way Sam was convinced.

Also, Renly wouldn't have given a damn if Margaery's children were his or not. Becoming king was about his ego, not forming a dynasty.

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18 minutes ago, bent branch said:

I guess I see it this way, Renly's explanation for claiming the throne is that he is the popular choice and the people are crying out for him. Because of this, I think he would want to kill as few of the nobility as possible. This would give him better optics, if you will. Renly was always going to have to kill Stannis, Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen. Each of these people have enough backing for their claim that they would remain a threat to Renly as long as they were alive. However, what backing would poor, little Shireen have? I can only think of the Florents. This family wouldn't be any real threat to Renly. Renly could claim that Shireen was his "heir" until Margaery had a baby. Then Renly could make a bethrothal between any son Margaery had. This would show that Renly had no malicious intent in his claim, he was just giving the people what they wanted. When Shireen was old enough she would be encouraged to join the Silent Sisters or become a septa the same way Sam was convinced.

Also, Renly wouldn't have given a damn if Margaery's children were his or not. Becoming king was about his ego, not forming a dynasty.

1. Renly's explanation for claiming the throne was never given aside of "well I failed to convince Ned to go along with a palace coup so I had to do something". It's not directly stated in the books but it's pretty clear from Renly's actions that he is trying to do mainly what is good for the Tyrells.

First he wanted to get Margaery into Robert's bed and have him fall in love with her (hoping that she looks enough like Lyanna...) and replace Cersei with her because... reasons. Robert is not dying anytime soon, and this move would by definition only be made if it includes disinheriting Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella, as Mace would not have his daughter be merely queen if it does not also mean that she would be the mother of the next king. 

Later Renly wanted Ned to make use of whatever swords Renly could gather and take control of Joffrey so that Cersei would not dare stand in thier (Ned and Renly's) way. Way for what? Grooming her son to take the throne? Why would she do that? No, it's because Renly still intended to replace the Lannisters at court with the Tyrells. Wether or not this included keeping Joffrey or not is unclear, but it is possible that at this point Renly was only aiming to remove the Lannisters ASAP and replace them with the Tyrells, probably with a marriage between Joffrey and Marg. 

Then Renly rebelled and was crowned by Mace at Highgarden. After marrying his daughter. The main issue here is getting the Tyrells into court. 

Why would Renly want to bring the Tyrells into court? Loras. Loras was always his father's favourite, and Mace's appetite for power is the driving force here. Renly's popularity is massively overstated. Every lord paramount in the WOT5K had the support of his region. Renly had no support outside of the Stormlands that was not given to him by Mace on the condition that he marry his daughter and take the crown, so Mace could see his dream of placing his own kin on the throne. A dream shared by Doran, which alongside a mutual burning hatred for the Tyrells, is why despite Renly's boast to Catelyn he did not join Renly as he was the favourite early in the war and instead opted to side with the Lannisters of all people. Even from the Stormlands, the call-up was hesitant, with some lords staying home and others playing more than one camp. Renly was fun to be around, he was charming and all that, but he was not exactly a champion of the people. Few remember him after ACOK aside of Brienne and Loras. People cried out for Renly, and Stannis, and most of all bread only when King's Landing was starving. At no other point is there any mention of commoners showing any particular affection to the handsome young lord. His popularity was mainly in his head, and mainly because he was listening to sycophants. Loras urged him to take the throne, which was undoubtedly at the behest of his father.

2. Renly was going for war with the Lannisters. The Lannisters enjoy massive support and loyalty among the lords of the west. The war would be bloody and in the end Renly would still have made them his enemies either way the war would have ended. The Lannisters are a large family with cadet branches. Removing them all would result with many unhappy lords, and keeping them would mean a hostile Westerlands. Renly can go on not wanting to kill nobles, it won't sort out his problems. A coup is rarely a simple matter, and Renly made little preparations. 

3. Shireen does not need to have backing right now. The same way that Viserys and Danaerys had but a single knight to guard them and Renly still favoured thier assasination. Whilst they live, they are a threat. An orphaned girl today could hav a faction that wants Renly gone use her as a figurehead tommorow. Her claim is a threat, not the little girl. Viserys was nothing, a loser who earned the title "the beggar king". He still managed to sell his sister to a Khal for 40,000 riders based entirely on who he was, and a shred of a claim. Did his claim have any value? Of course not, the Baratheons had right of conquest, which by the exact same legality of the Targ claim, now made them the legit rulers of the Seven Kingdoms. Did Viserys have a power base? A strong personality? No, he was a loser who lucked out with one rich merchant who was part of a faction. Setting aside the fact that Mopatis never intended for the deal to come about, as it was only a diversion, it shows that Renly's fear has some merit. Shireen has a claim, that fact alone makes her dangerous even if she is the sweetest girl in the world who would not dream of harming a fly. Did Myrcella hate her brother Tommen? Did she wish him ill? Did she display any signs of a crazed obsession with seating herself on the Iron Throne? No? Then how come she was to be Arianne's figurehead for a rebellion against the Lannisters that set about to topple Tommen and press his older sister's claim? Myrcella was not doing anything, she was barely able to understand what was going on and as simple as that her claim was used for a war against the little brother she loved dearly. 

4. The Florents are not the issue. The issue is that anyone who would challenge Renly's rule could use her claim in the propaganda effort. During the Dance of the Dragons Perkin the Flea managed to convince a mob in Kings Landing that his squire was actually Trystane Truefyre, a natural son of Viserys I. He managed to take control of the capital until Cregan Stark arrived with an army. Imagine what a faction with a bit more support than literally one knight could do with a legitimate Baratheon that has a better claim than the usurper Renly?

5. To get Renly to keep Shireen around until he has a son, and then have that son marry a girl at least 13 years his elder, you would have to get Renly damn confident that his rule is secure. That won't happen soon, and he shows both distain for "that ugly daughter of his (Stannis')", and the lack of understaning of why Robert risked waiting for 15 years before ordering a hit on known threats to his rule. 

To me, that seems highly unlikely. 

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5 hours ago, Oakhearts head said:

Most agree that Renly Baratheon's death at the hands of Melisandre's shadow baby was arguably the biggest example of deus ex machina in the entire series.

Assuming everything had gone to plan for Renly and his massive host, in that Storms End was taken with minor casualties and Stannis was killed during the fighting, and Renly's forces would later go on to take Kings Landing, I'm curious as to what fate would have been in store for the following characters:

Shireen Baratheon:

Well I'd say that Renly would take her into custody and probably do away with her at the behest of the Tyrells, or the Tyrells themselves would arrange for an accident for her.

5 hours ago, Oakhearts head said:

Joffrey's Kingsguard:

The lot that didn't die in battle would probably be sent to the Wall or perhaps done away with in some other fashion, while Renly's rainbow guard donned the white cloaks. At the end of it, I see the rainbow guard as nothing but a stand-in for the Kingsguard, so its probably not supposed to be a lasting institution.

5 hours ago, Oakhearts head said:

Davos Seaworth:

Head. Spike. Wall.

No way that Renly will leave Stannis most die hard loyalist alive, provided that Davos don't use his smuggling skills to take himself and his family to Essos.

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5 hours ago, Oakhearts head said:

Most agree that Renly Baratheon's death at the hands of Melisandre's shadow baby was arguably the biggest example of deus ex machina in the entire series.

Assuming everything had gone to plan for Renly and his massive host, in that Storms End was taken with minor casualties and Stannis was killed during the fighting, and Renly's forces would later go on to take Kings Landing, I'm curious as to what fate would have been in store for the following characters:

Shireen Baratheon:

While I'm unsure if Renly would be merciful to Myrcella and Tommen, there doesn't seem to  be any reason to execute Shireen. In this case, she would be the "disfigured" daughter of the brother who was soundly defeated, in an especially patriarchal society. Her uncle is also well-known and well liked at court, so she has that going against her as well. Renly often bragged about his generosity towards fallen enemies, so while I doubt she would ever sit the Iron Throne, would inheritance of Dragonstone or Storms End be out the of the question for her?

Joffrey's Kingsguard:

As we know, Renly had created his own new institution of the Kingsguard, renaming it the 'Rainbow Guard.' If we conclude that some members from both groups died during the taking of Kings Landing, I guess some from Joffrey's Kingsguard would have been pardoned and perhaps joined Renly's own Kingsguard, ala Jaime and Barristan taking new oaths for Robert after the death of Aerys II. In such a case, Arys Oakheart and Balon Swann seem most likely as both of their houses fought for Renly's side during the WOTFK. There are some complications though; Jaime, who had recently been named Lord Commander at the time, likely would have still been a captive in the Riverlands. As for the others like Sandor Clegane, Mandon Moore, Osmund Kettleblack, etc. would punishments be in store for them (the Wall or a noose)? Would they be pardoned or released from their oaths? 

Davos Seaworth:

Stannis' main adviser, who Renly doesn't seem to take too seriously (on the surface anyway). If Davos wasn't killed during the seizing of Storms End, is it in Davos' character to bend the knee under such circumstances? Would Renly have use for Davos or would it basically be a "go back to your hovel, Onion Knight" situation?


Any thoughts? 

Shireen Baratheon - She will be spared and she will enjoy Renly's protection who'll keep her as a guest. In due time Renly would find a suitable husband (whose fiercely loyal to him) and he'll have her marry him in exchange of a minor lordship somewhere in the Stormlands or KL. Dragonstone will be kept under Renly's direct control as he'll give it to his heir like the Targs did

Joffrey's KG

Jamie Lannister - he betrayed two kings. Head on a spike and it will be sent North to appease the Starks
Sandor Clegane - he's too close to Joffrey. Head, spike, wall
Meryn Trant - Renly would be desperate to score points with Robb and Sansa. Head, spike, wall
Arys Oakheart - He will be pardoned under the condition he'll return Myrcella safely to KL
Balon Swann - he will be pardoned
Osmund Kettleblack - he will be pardoned
 

Davos Seaworth

Renly criticized Stannis but he respected his leadership in war. Davos will be spared and he'll be appointed as Renly's advisor as long as he bends the knee

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, devilish said:

Shireen Baratheon - She will be spared and she will enjoy Renly's protection who'll keep her as a guest. In due time Renly would find a suitable husband (whose fiercely loyal to him) and he'll have her marry him in exchange of a minor lordship somewhere in the Stormlands or KL. Dragonstone will be kept under Renly's direct control as he'll give it to his heir like the Targs did

Joffrey's KG

Jamie Lannister - he betrayed two kings. Head on a spike and it will be sent North to appease the Starks
Sandor Clegane - he's too close to Joffrey. Head, spike, wall
Meryn Trant - Renly would be desperate to score points with Robb and Sansa. Head, spike, wall
Arys Oakheart - He will be pardoned under the condition he'll return Myrcella safely to KL
Balon Swann - he will be pardoned
Osmund Kettleblack - he will be pardoned
 

Davos Seaworth

Renly criticized Stannis but he respected his leadership in war. Davos will be spared and he'll be appointed as Renly's advisor as long as he bends the knee

Forgive me, but why would Renly care on whiff about appeasing the Starks? When he meets Catelyn and effectively takes her as hostage then he certainly don't give the feeling he's interested in negotiating with the Starks. He can allow Robb to call himself king, but at the end of the day its submission, and if necessary by force, that he aims for.

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3 hours ago, Nyrhex said:

1. Renly's explanation for claiming the throne was never given aside of "well I failed to convince Ned to go along with a palace coup so I had to do something". It's not directly stated in the books but it's pretty clear from Renly's actions that he is trying to do mainly what is good for the Tyrells.

First he wanted to get Margaery into Robert's bed and have him fall in love with her (hoping that she looks enough like Lyanna...) and replace Cersei with her because... reasons. Robert is not dying anytime soon, and this move would by definition only be made if it includes disinheriting Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella, as Mace would not have his daughter be merely queen if it does not also mean that she would be the mother of the next king. 

Later Renly wanted Ned to make use of whatever swords Renly could gather and take control of Joffrey so that Cersei would not dare stand in thier (Ned and Renly's) way. Way for what? Grooming her son to take the throne? Why would she do that? No, it's because Renly still intended to replace the Lannisters at court with the Tyrells. Wether or not this included keeping Joffrey or not is unclear, but it is possible that at this point Renly was only aiming to remove the Lannisters ASAP and replace them with the Tyrells, probably with a marriage between Joffrey and Marg. 

Then Renly rebelled and was crowned by Mace at Highgarden. After marrying his daughter. The main issue here is getting the Tyrells into court. 

Why would Renly want to bring the Tyrells into court? Loras. Loras was always his father's favourite, and Mace's appetite for power is the driving force here. Renly's popularity is massively overstated. Every lord paramount in the WOT5K had the support of his region. Renly had no support outside of the Stormlands that was not given to him by Mace on the condition that he marry his daughter and take the crown, so Mace could see his dream of placing his own kin on the throne. A dream shared by Doran, which alongside a mutual burning hatred for the Tyrells, is why despite Renly's boast to Catelyn he did not join Renly as he was the favourite early in the war and instead opted to side with the Lannisters of all people. Even from the Stormlands, the call-up was hesitant, with some lords staying home and others playing more than one camp. Renly was fun to be around, he was charming and all that, but he was not exactly a champion of the people. Few remember him after ACOK aside of Brienne and Loras. People cried out for Renly, and Stannis, and most of all bread only when King's Landing was starving. At no other point is there any mention of commoners showing any particular affection to the handsome young lord. His popularity was mainly in his head, and mainly because he was listening to sycophants. Loras urged him to take the throne, which was undoubtedly at the behest of his father.

2. Renly was going for war with the Lannisters. The Lannisters enjoy massive support and loyalty among the lords of the west. The war would be bloody and in the end Renly would still have made them his enemies either way the war would have ended. The Lannisters are a large family with cadet branches. Removing them all would result with many unhappy lords, and keeping them would mean a hostile Westerlands. Renly can go on not wanting to kill nobles, it won't sort out his problems. A coup is rarely a simple matter, and Renly made little preparations. 

3. Shireen does not need to have backing right now. The same way that Viserys and Danaerys had but a single knight to guard them and Renly still favoured thier assasination. Whilst they live, they are a threat. An orphaned girl today could hav a faction that wants Renly gone use her as a figurehead tommorow. Her claim is a threat, not the little girl. Viserys was nothing, a loser who earned the title "the beggar king". He still managed to sell his sister to a Khal for 40,000 riders based entirely on who he was, and a shred of a claim. Did his claim have any value? Of course not, the Baratheons had right of conquest, which by the exact same legality of the Targ claim, now made them the legit rulers of the Seven Kingdoms. Did Viserys have a power base? A strong personality? No, he was a loser who lucked out with one rich merchant who was part of a faction. Setting aside the fact that Mopatis never intended for the deal to come about, as it was only a diversion, it shows that Renly's fear has some merit. Shireen has a claim, that fact alone makes her dangerous even if she is the sweetest girl in the world who would not dream of harming a fly. Did Myrcella hate her brother Tommen? Did she wish him ill? Did she display any signs of a crazed obsession with seating herself on the Iron Throne? No? Then how come she was to be Arianne's figurehead for a rebellion against the Lannisters that set about to topple Tommen and press his older sister's claim? Myrcella was not doing anything, she was barely able to understand what was going on and as simple as that her claim was used for a war against the little brother she loved dearly. 

4. The Florents are not the issue. The issue is that anyone who would challenge Renly's rule could use her claim in the propaganda effort. During the Dance of the Dragons Perkin the Flea managed to convince a mob in Kings Landing that his squire was actually Trystane Truefyre, a natural son of Viserys I. He managed to take control of the capital until Cregan Stark arrived with an army. Imagine what a faction with a bit more support than literally one knight could do with a legitimate Baratheon that has a better claim than the usurper Renly?

5. To get Renly to keep Shireen around until he has a son, and then have that son marry a girl at least 13 years his elder, you would have to get Renly damn confident that his rule is secure. That won't happen soon, and he shows both distain for "that ugly daughter of his (Stannis')", and the lack of understaning of why Robert risked waiting for 15 years before ordering a hit on known threats to his rule. 

To me, that seems highly unlikely. 

I am not a fan of Renly's, but I do have more faith in his political acumen than that. Renly did not have enough military support to take the whole of Westeros. He was going to have to defeat each individual kingdom and then turn it in his favor. He already had the Stormlands and the Reach (or most of it). By taking KL and killing Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen he would have effectively defeated the Westerlands. The only ally the Westerlands had was the Crownlands. With the death of the three children the Lannisters lost their only ally and only claim to the throne. The Westerlands are the only kingdom Renly wouldn't have had to placate. Tywin had burned most of his bridges and if Renly had successfully taken KL, Tywin would have been friendless.

The one thing often overlooked in discussions of Renly is how disgusting most of the lords outside the Stormlands and Reach found Renly's intended behavior. Most people understood that Renly was going to have to kill every single one of his close blood relatives, including children. This is not acceptable behavior in Westeros. So by keeping Shireen alive, Renly could demonstrate he was not a complete monster and that others could safely negotiate with him. Shireen would of course be the ward of her uncle. As someone in the book said, if you kill someone who kneels than others would be reluctant to kneel if they thought it would mean death. Also, at some point in the book, Renly admires Robert's ability to turn an enemy into a friend. It was clear that he thought this was means to successfully rule.

So Renly had a PR problem. He intended (and had to take) actions that were extremely frowned upon in Westeros. He had to borrow Robert's charm offensive because he didn't have enough power to institute martial law in Westeros. If Renly went around killing men who knelt, he would never achieve his goal. So I think Renly was going to have to be a lot more merciful if he wanted to actually get the throne and this includes his poor niece. So Renly was going to have to trust at some point since he wasn't strong enough to just take Westeros.

Anyhow, yes, his Tyrell lover had encouraged him in this direction, but Renly also wanted it.

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3 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

Forgive me, but why would Renly care on whiff about appeasing the Starks? When he meets Catelyn and effectively takes her as hostage then he certainly don't give the feeling he's interested in negotiating with the Starks. He can allow Robb to call himself king, but at the end of the day its submission, and if necessary by force, that he aims for.

For the simple reason that he wouldn't want to spend most of his life, freezing his arse off in the North while conquering it. 

Robb has placed a crown on his head which is unacceptable. However the Starks had proven themself as being loyal allies to Robert and prior to that they had been great administrators to the North for thousands of years. If it can be helped, then Renly would want things to remain they way they are.

By returning Eddard's bones + offering Joffrey's head to Robb, Renly would achieve two goals

a- it would be an opportunity for Renly to actually meet the young wolf in an amicable fashion. Robb would be exposed to Renly  & Margaery's charisma, he'll meet his sister again and he will have a peek to Renly's enormous army. Who knows, maybe that would be enough to sort a deal that will benefit both parties. Maybe Robb would be willing to bend the knee, if he's allowed the title of Prince of the North (similar to the one Doran had) and a good matchup for his own sister (Loras?)

b- By killing Joffrey, Cersei and the despicable Meryn, Renly will score points with Sansa. The King in the North may not listen to Renly but he might listen to his sister especially if she's encouraged with a potential marriage with a true knight or alternatively, the Lord Paramount of the Reach himself. Alternatively, Sansa may proof the solution of the Northern problem, if Renly is forced to meet and kill Robb in war. She's a Stark after all, and second in line (assuming Rickon and Bran are dead) to the Lordship of Winterfell. 

 

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I agree


I believe that Renly’s plan was simple


a-    Sit out for most of the war. That would  allow space and time for the wolf and the lion to rip one another
b-    March over the wounded winner, forcing him to bend the knee.


Tywin was simply too smart to be captured by Robb. 2-3 other significant defeats would see the lion hiding in his den which was way too fortified for Robb to breach, giving him time to plan an exit route (bending the knee to Renly?).  On the other hand if Tywin had to win, then his army would probably end up too weak to withstand the Reach-Stormland’s army. Either way, you’ll have a scenario were 2 regions will quickly bend the knee (Riverlands and crownlands) with either the Westerlands or the North ready to follow. If Robb ends up dead, then the North will end up in chaos which will leave it easy prey to the crown’s negotiation (especially if Renly manages to get his hands on Sansa or Arya or both).  If Tywin or the remaining royal family end up dead, then Kevan/Tywin will have no reason to fight and would probably bend the knee. 


That enough should, at least on paper, create a domino effect where most if not all neutral regions will bend the knee and return back to the fold. None of those regions can withstand the full might of the Reach-Riverlands-Stormlands & North or Westerlands forces. The iron islands may resist but conquering them is a pretty straightforward task.


If you ask me, Renly would work this way


Stannis & Shireen B – If he bends the knee he will be allowed a role in the small council and retain his role as Lord of Dragonstone. If he dies Shireen will end up under Renly’s protection & she would be married off to a loyal bannerman in exchange for some lands or title (not necessarily Dragonstone)


 Lannisters – Cersei, Jamie and their offspring will lose their heads. Tywin will be offered to bend the knee and retain his title. Tyrion and Lancel will be kept as wards to make sure Tywin stay in line. If Tywin refuse, the Westerlands will be invaded. Tywin and Tyrion will lose their heads and their lands/titles will probably move to Garlan, Loras or Renly’s future second son. 


Starks/Tully – Negotiations will start from day 1. Robb will have Eddard’s bones, Ice and Joffrey’s head and a meeting with Sansa/Arya in exchange of him meeting Renly on neutral ground. Renly would probably allow him to keep the prince in the North title as long as Robb bends the knee. If he refuse then a battle would be imminent and if Robb dies, Loras and Sansa will end up married and would lead the expedition to return the North back to the fold
 

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14 minutes ago, Trigger Warning said:

I highly doubt Davos would have any place at Renly's court. Even without it offending all the great lords that attend him what use would Renly specifically see for him?

Renly didn't rated Stannis alot however he knew two things about him

a- he's straight as an arrow.
b- he's quite great as general

He'll certainly be interested in knowing why a commoner was able to raise  so high within Stannis ranks, especially a man with a rather dubious past (we all know about Stannis inflexibility). Renly is literally surrounded by Tyrells. He'll certainly would want someone who hasn't pledged allegiance to Mace

Also don't forget that

a- Shireen is Renly's heir. Stannis would probably lose his life in the war and Davos may be the only person, close enough to the girl, to act as father figure to her. 

b -Davos onions were instrumental in saving Storm's end from famine. That include Renly as well. 

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