If Renly won what would happen to Shireen, Davos and Joffrey's Kingsguard

[Trigger Warning]

Renly's the Lord of Storm's End I'm sure he has enough Stormlands nobles of note in his retinue. At this point I'd say Stannis is known as a competent commander rather than a great general since he's only commanded one battle we know of, furthermore I doubt Renly particularly cares about why Stannis likes Davos, I can't really imagine him being on his radar much at all. 

Renly might owe Davos somewhat for Storm's End but that doesn't mean he's going to let him into his inner circle, nor do I think Renly would care that Shireen had a father figure or not, he'd likely have her under guard at the Red Keep once he takes it I would imagine, a generic courtier before he marries her off. 

Davos is where he is because he's about the only person Stannis can tolerate, it's just nepotism and something I don't think it uncommon enough to intrigue Renly. 

[devilish]

1 hour ago, Trigger Warning said:

Renly's the Lord of Storm's End I'm sure he has enough Stormlands nobles of note in his retinue. At this point I'd say Stannis is known as a competent commander rather than a great general since he's only commanded one battle we know of, furthermore I doubt Renly particularly cares about why Stannis likes Davos, I can't really imagine him being on his radar much at all. 

Renly might owe Davos somewhat for Storm's End but that doesn't mean he's going to let him into his inner circle, nor do I think Renly would care that Shireen had a father figure or not, he'd likely have her under guard at the Red Keep once he takes it I would imagine, a generic courtier before he marries her off. 

Davos is where he is because he's about the only person Stannis can tolerate, it's just nepotism and something I don't think it uncommon enough to intrigue Renly. 

Stannis held Storm's end against a much bigger force. He commanded the royal fleet against the Greyjoys, he recaptured Dragonstone and he subdeud Great Wyk. He's no Napoleon Bonaparte. However in terms of GOT he's quite a decent general. Renly certainly appreciates that CV. 

I believe that Renly will be curious about Davos. He's a person who went out of his way to save a group of random noblemen from starving to death (including himself). Throughout the years he was able to win Stannis trust and go up the ranks, something to be respected especially since their relationship started with a rocky start (Stannis taking Davos fingers). Not many men are able to win Stannis respect and affection. Both Robert and Renly had failed on that despite being both charismatic. Not to forget that little Shireen loves him to bits + Davos is one of the very few people around him who hasn't pledged allegiance to the Tyrells. 

Is that enough for Davos to enter Renly's inner circle? That's debatable. I think that Davos would succeed in doing that. There again I also think that Renly's inner circle will be far bigger than that of the other 3 kings put together (Joffrey, Robb and Stannis)

 

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

10 hours ago, Nyrhex said:

1. Renly's explanation for claiming the throne was never given aside of "well I failed to convince Ned to go along with a palace coup so I had to do something". It's not directly stated in the books but it's pretty clear from Renly's actions that he is trying to do mainly what is good for the Tyrells.

First he wanted to get Margaery into Robert's bed and have him fall in love with her (hoping that she looks enough like Lyanna...) and replace Cersei with her because... reasons. Robert is not dying anytime soon, and this move would by definition only be made if it includes disinheriting Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella, as Mace would not have his daughter be merely queen if it does not also mean that she would be the mother of the next king. 

Later Renly wanted Ned to make use of whatever swords Renly could gather and take control of Joffrey so that Cersei would not dare stand in thier (Ned and Renly's) way. Way for what? Grooming her son to take the throne? Why would she do that? No, it's because Renly still intended to replace the Lannisters at court with the Tyrells. Wether or not this included keeping Joffrey or not is unclear, but it is possible that at this point Renly was only aiming to remove the Lannisters ASAP and replace them with the Tyrells, probably with a marriage between Joffrey and Marg. 

Then Renly rebelled and was crowned by Mace at Highgarden. After marrying his daughter. The main issue here is getting the Tyrells into court. 

Why would Renly want to bring the Tyrells into court? Loras. Loras was always his father's favourite, and Mace's appetite for power is the driving force here. Renly's popularity is massively overstated. Every lord paramount in the WOT5K had the support of his region. Renly had no support outside of the Stormlands that was not given to him by Mace on the condition that he marry his daughter and take the crown, so Mace could see his dream of placing his own kin on the throne. A dream shared by Doran, which alongside a mutual burning hatred for the Tyrells, is why despite Renly's boast to Catelyn he did not join Renly as he was the favourite early in the war and instead opted to side with the Lannisters of all people. Even from the Stormlands, the call-up was hesitant, with some lords staying home and others playing more than one camp. Renly was fun to be around, he was charming and all that, but he was not exactly a champion of the people. Few remember him after ACOK aside of Brienne and Loras. People cried out for Renly, and Stannis, and most of all bread only when King's Landing was starving. At no other point is there any mention of commoners showing any particular affection to the handsome young lord. His popularity was mainly in his head, and mainly because he was listening to sycophants. Loras urged him to take the throne, which was undoubtedly at the behest of his father.

2. Renly was going for war with the Lannisters. The Lannisters enjoy massive support and loyalty among the lords of the west. The war would be bloody and in the end Renly would still have made them his enemies either way the war would have ended. The Lannisters are a large family with cadet branches. Removing them all would result with many unhappy lords, and keeping them would mean a hostile Westerlands. Renly can go on not wanting to kill nobles, it won't sort out his problems. A coup is rarely a simple matter, and Renly made little preparations. 

Renly says multiple times, to Ned and Catelyn both, that he believes Cersei (or the Lannisters in general) are going to try to kill him (and almost certainly Ned). Cersei confirms her desire to kill both he and Stannis later. Now Renly clearly favors the Tyrells. Loras was his squire and he definitely works to get Margaery into Robert's notice. However he doesn't really stand to gain anything by having Margaery marry Robert or Ned be Regent and Protector of the Realm. He avoids losing his spot at court, but that's not what he directly tells Ned and later Catelyn. Once he flees KL, there is really not much else to do but put a claim forward. He can't sit alone in SE, isolated from any friends and allies and very much outnumbered the crown forces. 

Renly made plenty of preparations. You don't marry into the most powerful LP family in the kingdoms and gather 80-100K men without preparations. He doesn't need to kill all the Lannisters if he can get Robb's forces to do it for him. The Vale was largely expected to join that Frey too. Hell between the starvation riots in KL and Robb's fighting to the West, he almost got half of the Lannisters who mattered captured, dead, or nearly killed. Now Renly would certainly have to had get his own hands dirty with respect to securing his dynastic intentions but I fail to see anything he did wrong until getting murdered by a shadow baby. We can quibble about outpacing his supply lines and bringing only cavalry (though they can clearly dismount to be heavy infantry).  I'm sure other people have written in greater detail about this than me, but that's my two cents.

[Lion of the West]

5 hours ago, devilish said:

For the simple reason that he wouldn't want to spend most of his life, freezing his arse off in the North while conquering it. 

He wouldn't have to. The war would be fought in the Riverlands and Robb is by far too honorable to abandon half his kingdom and retreat up north with his Northmen.

5 hours ago, devilish said:

Robb has placed a crown on his head which is unacceptable. However the Starks had proven themself as being loyal allies to Robert and prior to that they had been great administrators to the North for thousands of years. If it can be helped, then Renly would want things to remain they way they are.

That Eddard Stark was loyal to Robert Baratheon is of little concern to Renly Baratheon. Renly rebelled against what he thought was Robert's son and heir without any more pretext than "I want the throne and I've got a big army!" and as part of his feud with the Lannisters. But I agree that Renly would want stability and let the Starks continue to be the Wardens of the North, but the way I see it, Eddard Stark's relation with Robert Baratheon does not mean squat for Renly Baratheon in his dealings with Robb Stark.

5 hours ago, devilish said:

By returning Eddard's bones + offering Joffrey's head to Robb, Renly would achieve two goals

a- it would be an opportunity for Renly to actually meet the young wolf in an amicable fashion. Robb would be exposed to Renly  & Margaery's charisma, he'll meet his sister again and he will have a peek to Renly's enormous army. Who knows, maybe that would be enough to sort a deal that will benefit both parties. Maybe Robb would be willing to bend the knee, if he's allowed the title of Prince of the North (similar to the one Doran had) and a good matchup for his own sister (Loras?)

b- By killing Joffrey, Cersei and the despicable Meryn, Renly will score points with Sansa. The King in the North may not listen to Renly but he might listen to his sister especially if she's encouraged with a potential marriage with a true knight or alternatively, the Lord Paramount of the Reach himself. Alternatively, Sansa may proof the solution of the Northern problem, if Renly is forced to meet and kill Robb in war. She's a Stark after all, and second in line (assuming Rickon and Bran are dead) to the Lordship of Winterfell. 

 

For the first part Renly does not rely on all positive emotions or he wouldn't have taken Catelyn as his captive when she came to parley. Renly isn't there to ask nicely about maybe if Robb Stark wants to come and play with him and as a king he would be foolish to go in too soft and give the impression that it will be all roses, sunshine and concessions to rebels. Its important to remember that while Robb and Renly have the same main enemy, the Lannisters, the two of them wants different things. Robb wants to break away and gain vengeance while Renly wants the Iron Throne and that means dominion over the North and Riverlands, as I am pretty sure that he also tells Catelyn. So what I essentially want to say is that if Renly can strike a peace with Robb that makes Robb hail Renly as his liege, then all is good and wonderful. But remember that Robb's bannermen have already rejected Renly in favor of separating themselves from the realm, so I don't know how well it will go down with the likes of Umber and Karstark that Robb is bending his knee to Renly. I could see Robb getting a serious degree of authority issues over that one.

Now your plan for Renly to handle Sansa has lots of merits to it so I can't naysay that aspect of the post. In fact is rather beautifully played as part of personal relations and feudal politics.

[Sullen]

I think Renly concerns himself too much with appearances to do anything to either Shireen, Tommen, or Myrcella. If anything, he'll keep them around under his supervision for the rest of his life. If you can control them, it would be foolish to gain the reputation of a child murderer and a kinslayer by getting rid of your family members that way.

Stannis and Joffrey are a bit different, I am willing to believe that he would pardon Stannis if he bends the knee, would send him to the Wall if he captured him, but wouldn't mind too much if Stannis was killed in battle (though he would certainly act like it, image being his everything). Joffrey either gets the Wall, or is executed, depending on how much the Starks need to be placated.

Cersei is a massive threat, she goes for sure.

The Kingsguard are most likely all pardoned.

Davos goes back to a life of irrelevance.

 

It's a shame Renly had to go so soon. In him, GRRM had created an adept and pragmatic King who understood the game better than any other contender, that truly understood the importance of appearances. I understand the need to off him in order for the story to progress though, Renly winning would have made a boring story.

[Lion of the West]

3 minutes ago, Sullen said:

I think Renly concerns himself too much with appearances to do anything to either Shireen, Tommen, or Myrcella. If anything, he'll keep them around under his supervision for the rest of his life. If you can control them, it would be foolish to gain the reputation of a child murderer and a kinslayer by getting rid of your family members that way.

Stannis and Joffrey are a bit different, I am willing to believe that he would pardon Stannis if he bends the knee, would send him to the Wall if he captured him, but wouldn't mind too much if Stannis was killed in battle (though he would certainly act like it, image being his everything). Joffrey either gets the Wall, or is executed, depending on how much the Starks need to be placated.

Cersei is a massive threat, she goes for sure.

The Kingsguard are most likely all pardoned.

Davos goes back to a life of irrelevance.

 

It's a shame Renly had to go so soon. In him, GRRM had created an adept and pragmatic King who understood the game better than any other contender, that truly understood the importance of appearances. I understand the need to off him in order for the story to progress though, Renly winning would have made a boring story.

I don't really think that Renly winning would have made the story more boring than anything else. There would still be lots of potential story material to work with and make it exciting.

[Sullen]

18 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

I don't really think that Renly winning would have made the story more boring than anything else. There would still be lots of potential story material to work with and make it exciting.

Apart from the possibility that Varys visits Renly with a crossbow, Westeros would have been stable until a Targaryen lands. We're missing most of the conflict of ACoK-ADwD, that's a bit dull.

Of course, Renly getting a crossbow bolt to the crotch would have sent the realm into confusion and turmoil again, but that's an alternate scenario where Renly dies again anyways.

[Lion of the West]

15 minutes ago, Sullen said:

Apart from the possibility that Varys visits Renly with a crossbow, Westeros would have been stable until a Targaryen lands. We're missing most of the conflict of ACoK-ADwD, that's a bit dull.

Of course, Renly getting a crossbow bolt to the crotch would have sent the realm into confusion and turmoil again, but that's an alternate scenario where Renly dies again anyways.

I am more thinking on how the greedy and upstart puppet masters in the Tyrells would manage to first unite and then probably alienate many of the older families when they start grabbing castles, land and honors left and right. If you add to this a much more unstable situation at home, you can see this goes. The focus would be more on the court and intrigues rather than armies, but I think that there would be a significant degree of conflicts and conflicting interests.

[LindsayLohan]

I'm always surprised by the amount of poo shoveled on GRRM's doorstep over the death of Renly.  Especially the deus ex machina discussions, regarding Melisandre.  I do believe that even if the shadow teethgrinder had failed, Stannis was going to destroy Renly's host anyways.  Utilization of the Red Woman's magic was about taking the host intact, not destroying an army.

GRRM made it pretty clear that despite the size of the Baratheon/Tyrell host, they were badly disorganized, with Renly ignoring the counsel of his greatest and most experienced leaders.  Just as Cat said they were "playing at war" with the melee, Renly was playing at general in his councils.  Renly also let Stannis dictate the terms of the battle during their parlay, and Lord Tarly had noted that they would be charging directly into a rising sun in the morning. 

Renly's army was going to be a blinded, disorganized mess, and was going to be on the receiving end of a horrific slaughter.  Stannis showed his ability in similar circumstances by destroying Mance's host (not nearly the same as Renly's host, of course), and we see it again in his plans for the upcoming battles in and around Winterfell. 

Renly was always doomed to fail.  The only variable was how many men were going to die with him.

[Nyrhex]

7 hours ago, bent branch said:

I am not a fan of Renly's, but I do have more faith in his political acumen than that. Renly did not have enough military support to take the whole of Westeros. He was going to have to defeat each individual kingdom and then turn it in his favor. He already had the Stormlands and the Reach (or most of it). By taking KL and killing Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen he would have effectively defeated the Westerlands. The only ally the Westerlands had was the Crownlands. With the death of the three children the Lannisters lost their only ally and only claim to the throne. The Westerlands are the only kingdom Renly wouldn't have had to placate. Tywin had burned most of his bridges and if Renly had successfully taken KL, Tywin would have been friendless.

The one thing often overlooked in discussions of Renly is how disgusting most of the lords outside the Stormlands and Reach found Renly's intended behavior. Most people understood that Renly was going to have to kill every single one of his close blood relatives, including children. This is not acceptable behavior in Westeros. So by keeping Shireen alive, Renly could demonstrate he was not a complete monster and that others could safely negotiate with him. Shireen would of course be the ward of her uncle. As someone in the book said, if you kill someone who kneels than others would be reluctant to kneel if they thought it would mean death. Also, at some point in the book, Renly admires Robert's ability to turn an enemy into a friend. It was clear that he thought this was means to successfully rule.

So Renly had a PR problem. He intended (and had to take) actions that were extremely frowned upon in Westeros. He had to borrow Robert's charm offensive because he didn't have enough power to institute martial law in Westeros. If Renly went around killing men who knelt, he would never achieve his goal. So I think Renly was going to have to be a lot more merciful if he wanted to actually get the throne and this includes his poor niece. So Renly was going to have to trust at some point since he wasn't strong enough to just take Westeros.

Anyhow, yes, his Tyrell lover had encouraged him in this direction, but Renly also wanted it.

Renly was never going to take down the Lannisters simply by taking the capital, and Tarly calls it out that it would be a long war. Even if he takes the capital and Joffrey and Tyrion and Cersei, Myrcella and Tommen yet live. And if Renly is alive then Tywin does not leave Harrenhal to destroy Robb in the Westerlands, and Renly also has to deal with him in battle for the capital. Tywin is no fool, if he sees the battle is lost he would cut his losses and retreat to the Westerlands with Tommen, and if possible Joffrey and Cersei and Tyrion and Lancel would also make it out of the city before Renly takes it. The only reason they are left in the city during the Blackwater is because Tywin is not at Harrenhal, the Riverlands are mostly back in Tully control, and there is a hostile Stark host in Harrenhal now which could try and intercept them. Even that is still weak reasoning why they could not simply ride out of the Old Gate/Gate of the Gods and make a B-line for the Westerlands across the Gold Road if they see that the battle turns south... Even if you fear that the Lion Gate would soon come under attack, the northern gates were still perfectly safe, the enemy was mainly on the riverbank.

From there the war would last for years while Lannister gold and reputation buys Red Weddings and sellswords.

This is the problem with these scenarios, people oftern make arbitrary starts. Renly is not going to simply attack the capital and knock out the Lannisters out of the war. He still has to deal with the Lannisters, the Starks and Tullys, the Greyjoys are also now independent, Lysa in the Vale would keep her knights home, and Doran would be luaghing his ass off, telling Oberyn that he was right and procrastination was the fastest way to getting everything you want. 

Renly may admire the way Robb could turn enemies into friends, but he sure as hell fucks it up both with Robb and with Stannis. The logical leap you've made there, that Renly would need to be merciful = Renly would be merciful, is kind of a big one. It's one thing to accept enemeis' surrendor and have them bend the knee and name you king. It is an entirely different matter to keep a claimant alive, after making so many enemies. 

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Renly says multiple times, to Ned and Catelyn both, that he believes Cersei (or the Lannisters in general) are going to try to kill him (and almost certainly Ned). Cersei confirms her desire to kill both he and Stannis later. Now Renly clearly favors the Tyrells. Loras was his squire and he definitely works to get Margaery into Robert's notice. However he doesn't really stand to gain anything by having Margaery marry Robert or Ned be Regent and Protector of the Realm. He avoids losing his spot at court, but that's not what he directly tells Ned and later Catelyn. Once he flees KL, there is really not much else to do but put a claim forward. He can't sit alone in SE, isolated from any friends and allies and very much outnumbered the crown forces. 

Renly made plenty of preparations. You don't marry into the most powerful LP family in the kingdoms and gather 80-100K men without preparations. He doesn't need to kill all the Lannisters if he can get Robb's forces to do it for him. The Vale was largely expected to join that Frey too. Hell between the starvation riots in KL and Robb's fighting to the West, he almost got half of the Lannisters who mattered captured, dead, or nearly killed. Now Renly would certainly have to had get his own hands dirty with respect to securing his dynastic intentions but I fail to see anything he did wrong until getting murdered by a shadow baby. We can quibble about outpacing his supply lines and bringing only cavalry (though they can clearly dismount to be heavy infantry).  I'm sure other people have written in greater detail about this than me, but that's my two cents.

No, Renly says once to Ned that if they do not perform a palace coup, Cersei will, and later repeats to Catelyn that fear. This is after it is known that Robert is about to die, and is well after Renly had started plotting to replace the Lannisters with the Tyrells. It is beside the point. Renly was plotting since at least late 297 - early 298 because even Stannis was aware of his plots while at court. Robert dies almost a year later. The circumstances are completely different. If Stannis of all people knows, then Cersei bloody well knows of Renly's intentions, she is not plotting to murder him on a whim. 

Cersei is worried about the king's brothers, but I don't recall her claiming to want to kill them before the WOT5K. Stannis worries her because of his claim, and because she does not know what he is doing on Dragonstone all this time. Renly is a threat because he is plotting to remove her family from court and bring in the Tyrells. 

And the entire point of Renly not standing to gain anything from replacing the Lannisters with the Tyrells is that he is thinking on the Tyrells first becaue of his lover. This is before Robert dies suddenly and throws a throws a monkey wrench at his plotting. Now Renly needs to figure how he uses his power base to take control of the king since he is not of age. But that scenario, and Renly having to flee from the capital or risk Cersei attaks him, is still not white-washing Renly of his earlier plotting. He is not an innocent who is merely trying to stay safe, he was on Cersei's sights specifically because she knew that if he wins he would remove her and her family from court. This defense of Renly as only doing things in self defense completely ignores that Cersei does have a reasonable argument for worrying about Renly.

And Renly made zero preparations. He did not know that Robert was going to die, he fled King's Landing while Tywin was invading the Rivrlands. He reached Highgarden, married Margaery, was crowned king, and both he and Mace sent out ravens calling the banners. There was no time for anything else. His host takes the Rose Road slowly, gathering the different lords with Mace still at Highgarden gathering those from the southern and western edged of the Reach. At Bitterbridge when Catelyn arrives, Renly boasts that all the south rides with him, and surely Dorne would side with him and Stannis would side with him and it would all be over by Christmas blah blah blah. Doran in the meantime did not recieve so much as a postcard from Renly. He was already in negotiations with Tyrion to forge an alliance with the Lannisters. Stannis had already sent out his proclamation, and Renly had already seen it while his host was camped at Horn Hill, well before he arrived at Bitterbridge. Renly's plan was... to marry the Tyrells and use the greater numbers. The strategy he sets out with is to bully everyone else into bending the knee, leaving only the Lannisters. He would march slowly, starve the capital, and see who wins in the Riverlands and go after the weakened winner. When Catelyn arrived, he accepts that Robb would continue with the style of King in the North much like the Dornish have the Prince of Dorne. All is well if only literally everything else stays the same, Robb bends the knee to Renly. He forces Catelyn to watch how he destroys "rebels", to pass on to Robb that this is the best deal he is like to get from Renly.

In the meantime, Robb's strategy was to let Renly do the heavy lifting of fighting the Lannisters, while he deals with the second host forming in the Westerlands so as not to be trapped. He later raids in the Westerlands because that is all he can do, and he needs to ease off the food shotage of the Riverlands due to Tywin's raids which Robb is unable or unwilling to risk dealing with.

In the meantime Tywin's strategy is to camp at Harrenhal, where he could pose a threat to either Robb or Renly and quiclly react to either, while pillaging the Riverlands with his logistic tail cut off. 

In the meantime Tyrion's strategy was to ignore Renly's army completely as a non-issue because he has Tywin to back him up if Renly makes a move, and he sends half the City Watch to fish and hunt to feed the city while working entirely on an anti-Stannis strategy. He was also making an alliance with Dorne, getting them to send hosts to the mountain passes forcing Marcher lords to keep a larger portion of thier men behind.

In the meantime Stannis placed his money where his mouth is and invaded the Stormlands and placed Storm's End under siege.

No, Renly made no meaningful preparations, and his strategy failed.

The Vale was not expected to do shit. Robb hoped they would join, but Tywin wrote them off completely. Renly made no effort to woo the Vale, nor were they itching to join him. Frey was with Robb. They offered to see who wins and bend the knee to him. Between the stravation in the capital and Robb raiding in the West, Renly was already dead, and the Lannisters lost exactly Jaime as hostage and an idiot uncle at Oxcross. The Westerlands were far from spent, Tywin had an army near the capital, and Robb was making no signs he was going to bend the knee to Renly. 

 

[Sullen]

32 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

I am more thinking on how the greedy and upstart puppet masters in the Tyrells would manage to first unite and then probably alienate many of the older families when they start grabbing castles, land and honors left and right. If you add to this a much more unstable situation at home, you can see this goes. The focus would be more on the court and intrigues rather than armies, but I think that there would be a significant degree of conflicts and conflicting interests.

I doubt the Tyrells would have been that far reaching.

3 minutes ago, LindsayLohan said:

I'm always surprised by the amount of poo shoveled on GRRM's doorstep over the death of Renly.  Especially the deus ex machina discussions, regarding Melisandre.  I do believe that even if the shadow teethgrinder had failed, Stannis was going to destroy Renly's host anyways.  Utilization of the Red Woman's magic was about taking the host intact, not destroying an army.

GRRM made it pretty clear that despite the size of the Baratheon/Tyrell host, they were badly disorganized, with Renly ignoring the counsel of his greatest and most experienced leaders.  Just as Cat said they were "playing at war" with the melee, Renly was playing at general in his councils.  Renly also let Stannis dictate the terms of the battle during their parlay, and Lord Tarly had noted that they would be charging directly into a rising sun in the morning. 

Renly's army was going to be a blinded, disorganized mess, and was going to be on the receiving end of a horrific slaughter.  Stannis showed his ability in similar circumstances by destroying Mance's host (not nearly the same as Renly's host, of course), and we see it again in his plans for the upcoming battles in and around Winterfell. 

Renly was always doomed to fail.  The only variable was how many men were going to die with him.

This argument is absolutely ridiculous though.

1) Renly's knights are unaware of the seriousness of war, but are far from inept at it. See Stannis's host getting absolutely destroyed by them on the Blackwater.

2) Renly doesn't only have superiour numbers, he has superiour troops all around. Stannis's measly 5k cannot stand a charge of 30k heavy cavalry, the best Westeros has to offer.

3) While not led optimally, Renly's troops are far from disorganized. Loras has proven his value as a commander on the Blackwater against worst odds, and Tarly not leading the vanguard doesn't mean he's completely out of the fray. He's still a commander, likely leading by himself alone a force better equipped, better trained, and more numerous than all of Stannis's.

4) You're making a much bigger deal of the sun than it is. Renly would probably suffer more losses than without, but nowhere near enough to lose against such a small force.

5) A comparison with Mance is completely absurd. Seeing as the Wildlings genuinely had abysmal leadership and morale, were severely under-equipped and under-trained compared to Stannis's force, were taken completely by surprise has they had no idea whatsoever of Stannis being there, and were facing heavy cavalry, something they had no experience with whatsoever. Renly's host is made of highly trained knights, heavily armoured, with incredible morale, outnumbering him 5/6 -1, and aware of Stannis's presence. Saying that Stannis's victory over Mance shows he could defeat Renly is like saying that because I punched a kindergartner in the face, I could defeat George Foreman. 

6) Stannis has his back to Storm's End's garrison, which just come out and serve as an anvil for Renly's charge. He's surrounded as well as grossly outmanned. 

[Sullen]

6 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

Cersei is worried about the king's brothers, but I don't recall her claiming to want to kill them before the WOT5K. Stannis worries her because of his claim, and because she does not know what he is doing on Dragonstone all this time. Renly is a threat because he is plotting to remove her family from court and bring in the Tyrells. 

In AFFC, she recalls wanting to kill Robert's brothers before offing him, but that Eddard/Jon Arryn/Stannis forced her hand into murdering Robert first when they discovered the incest.

[Lion of the West]

1 hour ago, Sullen said:

I doubt the Tyrells would have been that far reaching.

I actially think they would. Without Tywin the Lannisters quickly realize how Mace wants more and more and more. With the Tyrells the dominant power at court and with essentially a puppet king, I don't at all see the issue with them going over-the-top with it. It won't happen in a heartbeat to be sure but I think that's the way it could go.

[Nyrhex]

3 hours ago, Sullen said:

In AFFC, she recalls wanting to kill Robert's brothers before offing him, but that Eddard/Jon Arryn/Stannis forced her hand into murdering Robert first when they discovered the incest.

Do you have a quote? I can't seem to find it.

[Universal Sword Donor]

5 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

Do you have a quote? I can't seem to find it.

“Jon Arryn put Robert Baratheon in her bed, and before he died he’d begun sniffing about her and Jaime as well. Eddard Stark took up right where Arryn had left off; his meddling had forced her to rid herself of Robert sooner than she would have liked, before she could deal with his pestilential brothers.”

She wanted his brothers dead before Robert, and Robert's death, accelerated as it was, is the primary factor that started the Wo5K.

[Nyrhex]

9 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

“Jon Arryn put Robert Baratheon in her bed, and before he died he’d begun sniffing about her and Jaime as well. Eddard Stark took up right where Arryn had left off; his meddling had forced her to rid herself of Robert sooner than she would have liked, before she could deal with his pestilential brothers.”

She wanted his brothers dead before Robert, and Robert's death, accelerated as it was, is the primary factor that started the Wo5K.

Wait, so the entire "Renly was only acting in self defense" argument is based on literally a single quote from Cersei that comes after Renly has already been plotting to remove her and her children from court and inheritence for close on a year, and after Stannis is snooping around with Jon Arryn regarding her children?

 

Oh come the fuck on. If anything it just adds ammo to the "Cersei was only acting in self defense" argument. Cersei wanted to deal with Robert's brothers because of what they were doing, Renly was worried for his life because he was placing himself as a legitimate threat to Cersei with his plottings. No plotting = zero proof that he was in any danger. 

And the primary factor that started the WOT5K was Littlefinger accelerating Varys' plan to set Westeros afire in war and chaos enough that would break the Baratheon hold and allow him to seat fAegon on the Iron Throne. 

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

4 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

Wait, so the entire "Renly was only acting in self defense" argument is based on literally a single quote from Cersei that comes after Renly has already been plotting to remove her and her children from court and inheritence for close on a year, and after Stannis is snooping around with Jon Arryn regarding her children?

Oh come the fuck on. If anything it just adds ammo to the "Cersei was only acting in self defense" argument. Cersei wanted to deal with Robert's brothers because of what they were doing, Renly was worried for his life because he was placing himself as a legitimate threat to Cersei with his plottings. No plotting = zero proof that he was in any danger. 

It comes after Renly has been plotting to remove her, not kill her. She wants to kill him. I assume you are familiar with the difference between the two, no? She's guilty of treason. No shit she wants them both (and Robert) dead. Cersei was acting in self-defense for a crime that carries an automatic death penalty. That's not self defense. What did Renly do that was wrong or illegal?

Nothing. You know it as well as I do. How can you call it self-defense when there is no legal or moral defense for what Cersei had done or was planning on doing? And no, Robert was a shitty husband who cheated on her is not a valid defense. They were both toxic to each other from day one. Oh and I'm a bit confused as to why the timing of her revelation makes you fire off? You knew it was from AFFC before I even posted it.

[Universal Sword Donor]

No, Renly says once to Ned that if they do not perform a palace coup, Cersei will, and later repeats to Catelyn that fear. This is after it is known that Robert is about to die, and is well after Renly had started plotting to replace the Lannisters with the Tyrells. It is beside the point. Renly was plotting since at least late 297 - early 298 because even Stannis was aware of his plots while at court. Robert dies almost a year later. The circumstances are completely different. If Stannis of all people knows, then Cersei bloody well knows of Renly's intentions, she is not plotting to murder him on a whim. 

Cersei is worried about the king's brothers, but I don't recall her claiming to want to kill them before the WOT5K. Stannis worries her because of his claim, and because she does not know what he is doing on Dragonstone all this time. Renly is a threat because he is plotting to remove her family from court and bring in the Tyrells. 

Then you get back to why Renly wants to replace Cersei in the first place. Is it because he wants to reward his lover's family, piss off the Lannisters, or both? Solely rewarding his lover's family couldn't be it. Tywin is the richest man in the seven kingdoms and the crown owes him 3 million dragons. Setting aside a queen is no easy feat in most cases and setting aside Tywin's golden daughter won't be easy either.  However if Renly moves to do both because he wants to reward his lover and remove a threat on his life. And, once again, Cersei is planning on murdering all the Baratheon brothers. It's right there in her POV.

And the entire point of Renly not standing to gain anything from replacing the Lannisters with the Tyrells is that he is thinking on the Tyrells first becaue of his lover. This is before Robert dies suddenly and throws a throws a monkey wrench at his plotting. Now Renly needs to figure how he uses his power base to take control of the king since he is not of age. But that scenario, and Renly having to flee from the capital or risk Cersei attaks him, is still not white-washing Renly of his earlier plotting. He is not an innocent who is merely trying to stay safe, he was on Cersei's sights specifically because she knew that if he wins he would remove her and her family from court. This defense of Renly as only doing things in self defense completely ignores that Cersei does have a reasonable argument for worrying about Renly.

No it means Renly is more intent on his survival than trying to gain anything. He does that three times: once with Margaery to Robert, once to Ned, and once with the Reach alliance and marriage. I'm not whitewashing Renly of the plotting. I'm just saying it's because he thinks Cersei wants him dead, not because he wants solely to reward his lover or gain power by proxy. Renly doesn't want to kill Cersei. He wants her to not kill him. Huge difference.

And Renly made zero preparations. He did not know that Robert was going to die, he fled King's Landing while Tywin was invading the Rivrlands. He reached Highgarden, married Margaery, was crowned king, and both he and Mace sent out ravens calling the banners. There was no time for anything else. His host takes the Rose Road slowly, gathering the different lords with Mace still at Highgarden gathering those from the southern and western edged of the Reach. At Bitterbridge when Catelyn arrives, Renly boasts that all the south rides with him, and surely Dorne would side with him and Stannis would side with him and it would all be over by Christmas blah blah blah. Doran in the meantime did not recieve so much as a postcard from Renly. He was already in negotiations with Tyrion to forge an alliance with the Lannisters. Stannis had already sent out his proclamation, and Renly had already seen it while his host was camped at Horn Hill, well before he arrived at Bitterbridge. Renly's plan was... to marry the Tyrells and use the greater numbers. The strategy he sets out with is to bully everyone else into bending the knee, leaving only the Lannisters. He would march slowly, starve the capital, and see who wins in the Riverlands and go after the weakened winner. When Catelyn arrived, he accepts that Robb would continue with the style of King in the North much like the Dornish have the Prince of Dorne. All is well if only literally everything else stays the same, Robb bends the knee to Renly. He forces Catelyn to watch how he destroys "rebels", to pass on to Robb that this is the best deal he is like to get from Renly.

No one made preparations for Robert dying. Hell even Cersei was scrambling. She had to bribe Janos Slynt to save her butt and that would have been immaterial if Ned had listened to Renly or listened to LF. The only person who "prepared" for the Wo5K was Tywin.  Yes Renly's strategy is to bully everyone -- cow might be a better term -- into accepting him on the throne. That isn't remotely controversial. He says as much directly to Catelyn:

“Robert won the throne with his warhammer.” “Well, there is my claim, as good as Robert’s ever was.”

Stannis was a complete mystery until he sent out that proclamation, which was well after 

In the meantime, Robb's strategy was to let Renly do the heavy lifting of fighting the Lannisters, while he deals with the second host forming in the Westerlands so as not to be trapped. He later raids in the Westerlands because that is all he can do, and he needs to ease off the food shotage of the Riverlands due to Tywin's raids which Robb is unable or unwilling to risk dealing with.

No Robb went west to draw Tywin west. That was always the goal. Tywin can't defend the capital if he's chasing Robb. That leaves KL wide open for Renly (later Stannis) to besiege and take it. It's in the Catelyn chapter where Robb comes back to RR.

In the meantime Tywin's strategy is to camp at Harrenhal, where he could pose a threat to either Robb or Renly and quiclly react to either, while pillaging the Riverlands with his logistic tail cut off. 

Very true.

In the meantime Tyrion's strategy was to ignore Renly's army completely as a non-issue because he has Tywin to back him up if Renly makes a move, and he sends half the City Watch to fish and hunt to feed the city while working entirely on an anti-Stannis strategy. He was also making an alliance with Dorne, getting them to send hosts to the mountain passes forcing Marcher lords to keep a larger portion of thier men behind.

Not ignore entirely but he was farther off and Tywin had enough ships and men to *threaten* the capital if not take it. But yes, he engages Dorne to keep Myrcella safe and threaten Renly's rear, which he has more than enough men to defend.

In the meantime Stannis placed his money where his mouth is and invaded the Stormlands and placed Storm's End under siege.

Yes.

No, Renly made no meaningful preparations, and his strategy failed.

His strategy failed because of a shadow baby. Where and how did he fail elsewise? Something that no one had seen in Westeros, maybe ever, ended his short reign.

The Vale was not expected to do shit. Robb hoped they would join, but Tywin wrote them off completely. Renly made no effort to woo the Vale, nor were they itching to join him. Frey was with Robb. They offered to see who wins and bend the knee to him. Between the stravation in the capital and Robb raiding in the West, Renly was already dead, and the Lannisters lost exactly Jaime as hostage and an idiot uncle at Oxcross. The Westerlands were far from spent, Tywin had an army near the capital, and Robb was making no signs he was going to bend the knee to Renly. 

He cares enough about them to mention them as potential, if not active, enemies at his post GF war council:

“ Roose Bolton and the remnants of his host are north of us. Our enemies hold the Twins and Moat Cailin. Robb Stark sits to the west, so we cannot retreat to Lannisport and the Rock unless we choose to give battle. Jaime is taken, and his army for all purposes has ceased to exist. Thoros of Myr and Beric Dondarrion continue to plague our foraging parties. To our east we have the Arryns, Stannis Baratheon sits on Dragonstone, and in the south Highgarden and Storm’s End are calling their banners.”

Granted this is before Renly crowns himself, but he goes on to say he's in between three armies if he stays at the GF, and that's why he moves to Harrenhal.  He is talking about Robb, Roose, and Renly. 

 

[Nyrhex]

Just now, Universal Sword Donor said:

It comes after Renly has been plotting to remove her, not kill her. She wants to kill him. I assume you are familiar with the difference between the two, no? She's guilty of treason. No shit she wants them both (and Robert) dead. Cersei was acting in self-defense for a crime that carries an automatic death penalty. That's not self defense. What did Renly do that was wrong or illegal?

Nothing. You know it as well as I do. How can you call it self-defense when there is no legal or moral defense for what Cersei had done or was planning on doing? And no, Robert was a shitty husband who cheated on her is not a valid defense. They were both toxic to each other from day one.

How is your argument relating to mine? 

 

Of course she is guilty of treason, from the moment she entered Jaime into her bed in the Red Keep. It has fuck all to do with the arguemts here.

Renly plotting to remove her and replace her with Margaery would lead to her children's place in the line of inheritence be placed in question. Mace would want his grandson to be king, not Cersei's children. Renly's actions are wrong to her because it is a direct attack on the status of her and her family, but far more importantly, it places her children's place in the line of inheritence in question, and therefore thier lives in danger. Do you want to get a civil war and dead children? Because having two wives and competing claims is how you get a civil war and dead children.

Renly's plotting to replace Cersei with Margaery does not have to be illegal for Cersei to have a legitimate reason to feal threatened and attacked, where on earth did you come up with that moral argument nonesense? 

What sort of argument is this, honestly now? Renly did not know that Cersei's children were Jaime's bastards, and he was still acting to replace the Lannisters with the Tyrells. I don't give a shit how bad of a husband or father Robert was, but how can you honestly claim that Renly was only defending himself by trying to remove Cersei from court or fearing her counter action to his plotting which would have placed her children in danger, all for the sake of his lover's dad being happy?

Cersei shows zero intention of killing Renly simply because. She was not planing to kill Robert before she feared her secret would be exposed, and she was no planning on killing his brothers before they made themselves threats to her and her children. This "Renly was only acting in self defense" is one of the worst defenses of the character. It has no relation to reality at all.He was acting in self defense to Cersei's potential counter attack to his earlier attack/threat, nothing more.

[Universal Sword Donor]

2 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

How is your argument relating to mine? 

Of course she is guilty of treason, from the moment she entered Jaime into her bed in the Red Keep. It has fuck all to do with the arguemts here.

Renly plotting to remove her and replace her with Margaery would lead to her children's place in the line of inheritence be placed in question. Mace would want his grandson to be king, not Cersei's children. Renly's actions are wrong to her because it is a direct attack on the status of her and her family, but far more importantly, it places her children's place in the line of inheritence in question, and therefore thier lives in danger. Do you want to get a civil war and dead children? Because having two wives and competing claims is how you get a civil war and dead children.

Renly's plotting to replace Cersei with Margaery does not have to be illegal for Cersei to have a legitimate reason to feal threatened and attacked, where on earth did you come up with that moral argument nonesense? 

What sort of argument is this, honestly now? Renly did not know that Cersei's children were Jaime's bastards, and he was still acting to replace the Lannisters with the Tyrells. I don't give a shit how bad of a husband or father Robert was, but how can you honestly claim that Renly was only defending himself by trying to remove Cersei from court or fearing her counter action to his plotting which would have placed her children in danger, all for the sake of his lover's dad being happy?

Cersei shows zero intention of killing Renly simply because. She was not planing to kill Robert before she feared her secret would be exposed, and she was no planning on killing his brothers before they made themselves threats to her and her children. This "Renly was only acting in self defense" is one of the worst defenses of the character. It has no relation to reality at all.He was acting in self defense to Cersei's potential counter attack to his earlier attack/threat, nothing more.

You are arguing Renly's actions were in a vaccum. I am telling you they were not and Cersei wanted to murder him. You keep ignoring that and saying "CERSEI FELT THREATENED". I get that. The armed bank robber doesn't get to complain if the cops shoot at him. Renly's actions are wrong to her but that's invalid in the first place. 

Come the fuck on, man (in your parlance). She straight up says she wants to kill Robert's brothers long before they were going to be a threat to her kids.

“Jon Arryn put Robert Baratheon in her bed, and before he died he’d begun sniffing about her and Jaime as well. Eddard Stark took up right where Arryn had left off; his meddling had forced her to rid herself of Robert sooner than she would have liked, before she could deal with his pestilential brothers.”

Robert was the post "brother murder" target, not the initial target. You literally can't argue that point unless you want to delve into "Cersei is an unreliable narrator" tack. You're welcome to do that on other topics. And once again, plotting to remove someone from court and a line of succession is a sight more defensible than murder, especially when we know that Renly suspected the Lannisters wanted him dead anyway, which he repeats twice and Cersei confirms. This is about as cut and dried as you can get. You can tell because of how divergent his two self defense plans are.

What to do the Tyrells gain from Ned being LP and Regent? Nothing. Renly gets to ensure that Cersei won't try to kill him.

The Tyrells definitely benefit from the removal of Cersei and the ascension of Marg, but it's diametric from plan B that Renly comes up with.