What is Littlefinger's real plan?

[Lemon of Lemonwood]

On 5/10/2016 at 2:53 AM, Hodor the Articulate said:

 Still, it's a lot of murders to conduct. Won't people get (even more) suspicious that Arryn lords are dropping like flies?

It depends on how they die.

Remeber, when Jon Arryn died, his death did not seem that suspicious until Cat got the letter from Lysa. He was rhobust for his age, yes, but he was also a man of about 80 years, which is an age people in Westeros (and even in our world) are pretty much expected to die.

Sweetrobin is a very frail and sickly boy, and very publicly so. When he dies, no one will get really surprised.

The only problem with Sweetrobin is maester Colemon. He does seem a man who keeps his mouth sut and loves his life well enough, but I also think that he genuinly cares for his little patient.If he would mention anything about a sweetsleep overdose to the wrong person (say, Bronze Yohn), things would go Bad for Littlefinger, but I don't think he would allow that, if poor Colemon shows any signs of being chatty, he will follow little Robert to his grave soon and no one will care for a maester's death.

Now, at first glance, killing Harry does seem a little tricky, since the boy is young, strong and very popular. However, with war seeming more likely for the Vale, it wouldn't raise too many eyebrows if young lord Harrold (who is not that exceptionnal with arms apparently,since the tourney he gained his spurs was rigged) would die in the confusion of battle by an agent of Littlefinger. 

Or, if Petyr wants too add a little spice and scandal in the mix, if a cuckolded husband (of an irresistable young wench who,what an unbelievable coincidence, is also in Littlefinger's pocket) caught his in flagrante and killed him.

After all, superstition is rife in Westeros and Poor Harry's recent family history is so plagued with misfortune that someone wil even attribute his death to sheer ill luck.

[Greywater-Watch]

8 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Also, Lord is not the same as Lord Protector. Lord of the Eyrie is hereditary, while LP, Warden and other titles are bestowed by the king. Heck, even hereditary titles can be undone by the king. So even after the marriage, LF could still hold sway over the Eyrie as long as he keeps faith with the Iron Throne: as in, Lord Paramount of the Riverlands and Vale.

All the theories about how many People Littlefinger could kill in the Vale without rising suspicion seem to be based a bit on the quotation above, that Littlefinger's present title as "Lord Protector of the Eyrie and the Vale" would be solid as a tatoo.

I have my doubts: maybe it is a temporary title bound to Lord Robin (Sweetrobin) not being able to rule because of his age. If Robin comes of age, or is replaced (after his death) by an heir (Harry, who is of age):

Then in my opinion Littlefinger can kill as many people as he wants - his power in the Vale has ended. Or can someone proof otherwise?

[Lemon of Lemonwood]

1 hour ago, Greywater-Watch said:

I have my doubts: maybe it is a temporary title bound to Lord Robin (Sweetrobin) not being able to rule because of his age. If Robin comes of age, or is replaced (after his death) by an heir (Harry, who is of age):

Then in my opinion Littlefinger can kill as many people as he wants - his power in the Vale has ended. Or can someone proof otherwise?

Well, Harry doesn't need to become Lord of the Vale. He can marry Sansa, impregnate her and then die in the glorious struggle of getting back her birthright (again, with a little help from Littlefinger), while Robert is still alive. 

Sansa will be a helpless widow with a baby in arms (and a very nice claim to the North and the Riverlands, should anything happen to Edmure and his child), so who would be a better husband and keep her and her child safe than her old and true friend Petyr Baelish?

Then, Sweetrobin finally dies, Sansa becomes regent of her child, Petyr becomes again lord Protector and and the Vale has a déjà vu.

[Greywater-Watch]

2 minutes ago, Lemon of Lemonwood said:

Sansa will be a helpless widow with a baby in arms (and a very nice claim to the North and the Riverlands, should anything happen to Edmure and his child), so who would be a better husband and keep her and her child safe than her old and true friend Petyr Baelish?

Wow wow wow - hold your horses. Where should a claim of Sansa to the Riverlands come from??????

[Lemon of Lemonwood]

27 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Wow wow wow - hold your horses. Where should a claim of Sansa to the Riverlands come from??????

With Edmure and his child in captivity and high risk of death,since Westerosi inheritance laws favors males, with Catelyn and her sons being dead (or considered dead) the next in line would be Lysa and Robert.

Riverrun and the Riverlands have been stripped from the Tullys, of course, but Riverrun's Freys have the ill luck of being associated with the two most hated and soon-to-collapse familes in Westeros, so they won't keep it for long.

So, when Robert dies , the only grandchild of Hoster Tully known to be alive will be  Sansa. With the Lannisters fallen from power, the Freys universally despised and Littlefinger being... well, Littlefinger, a new sovereign, wishing to be rid of them all, might consider her as a valid alternative for the titles. Marrying her would give Littlefinger's hold on the Riverlands an air of legitimacy (think of Lancel and Gatehouse Ami as a parallel).

[Angus Thermopyle]

I've always thought Littlefingers ties with Braavos somehow come into play. He may be one of the key holders of the Iron Bank. 

[kimim]

5 hours ago, Lemon of Lemonwood said:

With Edmure and his child in captivity and high risk of death,since Westerosi inheritance laws favors males, with Catelyn and her sons being dead (or considered dead) the next in line would be Lysa and Robert.

Riverrun and the Riverlands have been stripped from the Tullys, of course, but Riverrun's Freys have the ill luck of being associated with the two most hated and soon-to-collapse familes in Westeros, so they won't keep it for long.

So, when Robert dies , the only grandchild of Hoster Tully known to be alive will be  Sansa. With the Lannisters fallen from power, the Freys universally despised and Littlefinger being... well, Littlefinger, a new sovereign, wishing to be rid of them all, might consider her as a valid alternative for the titles. Marrying her would give Littlefinger's hold on the Riverlands an air of legitimacy (think of Lancel and Gatehouse Ami as a parallel).

I hadn't thought about Sansa's various claims, but yes. Given the mortality rate for the nobility, she has a potential claim to the Riverlands, and she has THE claim to WF (as far as anyone knows).

Problem is LF's potential control in all cases is weak:

Bran and Rickon are both alive, and both outrank Sansa as heirs to WF and the Riverlands. Robb's will hands WF to Jon, who will be resurrected. LF knows nothing about these. 

LF remains lord protector of the Vale only so long as Robin survives. When Robin dies, Harry (hopefully married to Sansa) becomes lord, in which case LF loses his official standing in the Vale. At that point, any power he has will be through Sansa. LF can't kill Harry until Sansa's given birth to a child, preferably a son, and that's iffy, too. What if she dies in childbirth? What if the child doesn't survive? What if she takes years getting pregnant?

LF's control over the Riverlands is the most concrete bit of his plan. He is the Lord of the Trident, which means he is, in name, lord paramount of the Riverlands. Add to this LF's control over food supplies for this starving region, and Riverlands seems his. otoh, LF is tied to Harrenhal, which is seriously cursed.

[Lemon of Lemonwood]

14 hours ago, kimim said:

LF remains lord protector of the Vale only so long as Robin survives. When Robin dies, Harry (hopefully married to Sansa) becomes lord, in which case LF loses his official standing in the Vale. At that point, any power he has will be through Sansa. LF can't kill Harry until Sansa's given birth to a child, preferably a son, and that's iffy, too. What if she dies in childbirth? What if the child doesn't survive? What if she takes years getting pregnant?

LF's control over the Riverlands is the most concrete bit of his plan. He is the Lord of the Trident, which means he is, in name, lord paramount of the Riverlands. Add to this LF's control over food supplies for this starving region, and Riverlands seems his. otoh, LF is tied to Harrenhal, which is seriously cursed.

If anything, Littlefinger is a high stakes gambler.

As I said before, if he wishes to keep the title of Lord Protector, he will have to get rid of Harry before killing Robert and after he has a gotten Sansa with child.

The possible baby's gender doesn't really matter that much. Remember that in the Vale they have had both female ladies ( Rhea Royce, Anya Waynwood) and at least one Lady Paramount (Jeyne Arryn). It might be even better if the baby is a girl actually, it will make him seem to Sansa even more necessary as a protector.

On Sansa's fertility, well, true enough, we cannot normally predict a woman's fertility, especially a maid's. However, they are both very young and attracted to each other, so we can expect plenty of...action. Also, Harry seems to have no trouble at all fathering children, and if Sansa inherited Catelyn's fertlity along with her other features, she will be pregnant very soon. 

About the curse of Harrenhal, if there is one person in Westeros that believes less in curses and supestitions in general than Petyr Baelish, I am willing to sing the "Bear and the Maiden fair" riding a unicycle and juggling butcher's knives. In a bright pink tutu. In the middle of the Niagara Falls.

[Greywater-Watch]

8 minutes ago, Lemon of Lemonwood said:

About the curse of Harrenhal, if there is one person in Westeros that believes less in curses and supestitions in general than Petyr Baelish, I am willing to sing the "Bear and the Maiden fair" riding a unicycle and juggling butcher's knives. In a bright pink tutu. In the middle of the Niagara Falls.

Vargo Hoat. Please make a film of your juggling performance, so I can enjoy it  

[Lemon of Lemonwood]

9 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Vargo Hoat. Please make a film of your juggling performance, so I can enjoy it  

A living man, not an ectoplasm, you naughty, naugty moving castle in a swamp

[Greywater-Watch]

1 minute ago, Lemon of Lemonwood said:

A living man, not an ectoplasm, you naughty, naugty moving castle in a swamp

Does Ser Robert Strong (ex Gregor Clegane) find your approval - you yellow vitamin-loaded fruit?

[Lemon of Lemonwood]

13 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Does Ser Robert Strong (ex Gregor Clegane) find your approval - you yellow vitamin-loaded fruit?

The Golem? Ser Franken-Gregor? Possibly headless and brainless?
It is the bright pink tutu part, isn't it?

[Greywater-Watch]

6 minutes ago, Lemon of Lemonwood said:

The Golem? Ser Franken-Gregor? Possibly headless and brainless?
It is the bright pink tutu part, isn't it?

No, it is the juggling part with butcher's knives. Brainless is good - no fear from ghosts to be taken into account.

[The Dew]

LF = Order through Chaos

[John Suburbs]

On ‎10‎/‎6‎/‎2016 at 5:05 AM, Greywater-Watch said:

Which situation do you mean?

- A marriage between Sansa and Harry the Heir?

AND

- Sweetrobin dead.

 

Either, or both.

[Nevets]

I think his plan, at least as it applies to Sansa, is as follows:

Slowly poison Sweetrobin.  He needs him to die eventually, just not yet.

Marry Sansa off to Harry the Heir.  When she has a child (preferably a son), Harry becomes disposable and is disposed of as is Sweetrobin.  LF then marries Sansa and becomes protector of the Lord of the Vale.

In the meantime, Sansa has gained control of the North in her own name.  Littlefinger takes possession of Harrenhal once the situation in the Riverlands calms down, giving him control of that region.

So, he would be in effective control of the Riverlands as Lord of Harrenhal, the Vale as protector of Harry, Jr., and the North as the husband of Sansa.  I'm sure he has other plans and balls in the air, but I've no clear idea what those are.

Many things could go wrong.  Among them:  Robb's will, which may or may not legitimize Jon, but definitely disinherits Sansa; Sansa's ongoing marriage to Tyrion; Myranda's interest in Harry and likely knowledge of Sansa's identity; and Sansa herself, as she is likely to be uneasy with marriage again, and will likely be quite angry if she discovers plans about Sweetrobin, Harry, or Lf's past actions.  I think LF will overextend himself, and Sansa will push him over the edge.  Bye bye, Littlefinger.

[Greywater-Watch]

10 hours ago, Nevets said:

So, he would be in effective control of the Riverlands as Lord of Harrenhal

I have strong doubts about this. LF has never put a foot into Harrenhal. At present Harrnhal is defended by Bonifer Hasty, named castellan of Harrenhal by Jaime Lannister. The title seems to be an empty one at the Moment as far as LF is concerned:

ACOK, Sansa VIII:

Kevin Lannister: "It is the wish of the King's Grace that his loyal councillor Petyr Baelish be rewarded for faithful service to crown and realm. Be it known that Lord Baelish is granted the castle of Harrenhal with all its attendant lands and incomes, there to make his seat and rule henceforth as Lord Paramount of the Trident. Petyr Baelish and his sons and grandsons shall hold and enjoy these honors until the end of time, and all the lords of the Trident shall do him homage as their rightful liege."

Sansa : "Lord Paramount of the Trident, Sansa thought, and Lord of Harrenhal as well. She did not understand why that should make him so happy; the honors were as empty as the title granted to Hallyne the Pyromancer."

All the incomes of the Riverlands and the fealty of the Riverland Lords to their liege Lord: I believe that none of the advantages are in place as long as LF does not have active control of Harrenhal.

[ravenous reader]

On 10/7/2016 at 3:57 AM, Lemon of Lemonwood said:

About the curse of Harrenhal, if there is one person in Westeros that believes less in curses and supestitions in general than Petyr Baelish

Perhaps he believes in curses and superstitions more than he'd have others believe.  It is interesting that up till now he has never set a physical foot in Harrenhal, never effectively 'taken his seat' there in order to ensure control of Harrenhal and enforce the allegiance of the Riverland lords, potentially making the title rather an empty one as @Greywater-Watch suggests may be the case:

5 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

All the incomes of the Riverlands and the fealty of the Riverland Lords to their liege Lord: I believe that none of the advantages are in place as long as LF does not have active control of Harrenhal.

It's almost as if he's avoiding going to Harrenhal, which should raise the question -- Why?  What is he scared of?  

Littlefinger is cursed, whatever he does.  As you and others have outlined, his route to power rests on maintaining two positions -- namely, Lord of the Trident, which requires him to set foot in Harrenhal cursing him should he do so; and Lord Protector of the Vale, a position which he can only perpetuate by killing Robert Arryn before he comes of age, again cursing him should he be, as I believe he is, Robert's biological father.  Even killing him by proxy does not necessarily let him off the 'kinslayer hook' in the eyes of the gods:

Quote

A Feast for Crows - The Reaver

He drank in the darkness, brooding on his brother. If I do not strike the blow with mine own hand, am I still a kinslayer? Victarion feared no man, but the Drowned God's curse gave him pause. If another strikes him down at my command, will his blood still stain my hands? Aeron Damphair would know the answer, but the priest was somewhere back on the Iron Islands, still hoping to raise the ironborn against their new-crowned king. Nute the Barber can shave a man with a thrown axe from twenty yards away. And none of Euron's mongrels could stand against Wulfe One-Ear or Andrik the Unsmiling. Any of them could do it. But what a man can do and what a man will do are two different things, he knew.

Even if Littlefinger doesn't believe in curses, the gods certainly believe in them, and none more than the godlike author determining the fates of the characters, GRRM himself!  That's why Theon was dished such an ignominious punishment (castration/penectomy) by the author -- not because of what he did to the Starks, but on account of killing 'the Millers'' boys, who were probably his own children, and not thinking twice about it.  Ironically, Theon was so intent on being Ironborn who 'do not sow,' he neglected to realise that in his case this was simply not true.  He had sown his seed in the north, then he crushed his own seed-- Theon is the 'Miller' --  for which GRRM permanently took away his capability of ever sowing his seed again.  Now he really 'can not sow'--  although he certainly reaps the bitter harvest GRRM has sown!

I also don't think Sweetrobyn will be that easy to kill, despite all appearances, so I wouldn't write him off so quickly in all your power algorithms.  After all, he's Littlefinger's son, and the 'seed is strong'...

[aryagonnakill#2]

On October 6, 2016 at 7:42 AM, Lemon of Lemonwood said:

With Edmure and his child in captivity and high risk of death,since Westerosi inheritance laws favors males, with Catelyn and her sons being dead (or considered dead) the next in line would be Lysa and Robert.

Riverrun and the Riverlands have been stripped from the Tullys, of course, but Riverrun's Freys have the ill luck of being associated with the two most hated and soon-to-collapse familes in Westeros, so they won't keep it for long.

So, when Robert dies , the only grandchild of Hoster Tully known to be alive will be  Sansa. With the Lannisters fallen from power, the Freys universally despised and Littlefinger being... well, Littlefinger, a new sovereign, wishing to be rid of them all, might consider her as a valid alternative for the titles. Marrying her would give Littlefinger's hold on the Riverlands an air of legitimacy (think of Lancel and Gatehouse Ami as a parallel).

Robert being a boy in this case does not put him before Sansa.  Because Catlyn is older than Lysa her claim, and thus all of her children's claims come before Lysa and any of her children, so even while Robert lives Sansa is the heir to both Riverrun and Harrenhall(Exluding LF's new claim to it) behind Edmure and his child.

[Nevets]

11 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

I have strong doubts about this. LF has never put a foot into Harrenhal. At present Harrnhal is defended by Bonifer Hasty, named castellan of Harrenhal by Jaime Lannister. The title seems to be an empty one at the Moment as far as LF is concerned:

ACOK, Sansa VIII:

Kevin Lannister: "It is the wish of the King's Grace that his loyal councillor Petyr Baelish be rewarded for faithful service to crown and realm. Be it known that Lord Baelish is granted the castle of Harrenhal with all its attendant lands and incomes, there to make his seat and rule henceforth as Lord Paramount of the Trident. Petyr Baelish and his sons and grandsons shall hold and enjoy these honors until the end of time, and all the lords of the Trident shall do him homage as their rightful liege."

Sansa : "Lord Paramount of the Trident, Sansa thought, and Lord of Harrenhal as well. She did not understand why that should make him so happy; the honors were as empty as the title granted to Hallyne the Pyromancer."

All the incomes of the Riverlands and the fealty of the Riverland Lords to their liege Lord: I believe that none of the advantages are in place as long as LF does not have active control of Harrenhal.

Right now the Riverlands are a total mess, with a continuing insurgency and general outlawry.  No way is Littlefinger going to accept responsibility for dealing with the situation.  He's perfectly happy to let Bonifer Hasty do the heavy lifting.  Once Ser Bonifer and the Lannisters have stabilized the situation, then Littlefinger will stroll casually into Harrenhal and take over.  But, for right now, he is in no hurry.  His plans were likely to take some years to come to fruition anyway, which is why he is so unhappy about Cersei's problems.  It speeds up the timetable, which is a problem for him.