What is Littlefinger's real plan?

[Lemon of Lemonwood]

14 hours ago, ravenous reader said:

Perhaps he believes in curses and superstitions more than he'd have others believe.  It is interesting that up till now he has never set a physical foot in Harrenhal, never effectively 'taken his seat' there in order to ensure control of Harrenhal and enforce the allegiance of the Riverland lords, potentially making the title rather an empty one as @Greywater-Watch suggests may be the case:

I think @Nevets said it best. When he has the situation sorted out in the Vale and things look better in the Riverlands, I think he will be happy to go and remind them who's boss.

As for the emptiness of the title in the quote by Sansa in ACoK, I think it refers more to Harrenhal being captured by Roose Bolton at the time and the Tullys and Robb being still very much alive and kicking, which means Joffrey gave LF titles he didn't even control of at the time. After the Red Wedding and the Fall of Riverrun though, the titles passed to the Crown in reality aswell, so the grants suddenly become very, very real.

14 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Robert being a boy in this case does not put him before Sansa.  Because Catlyn is older than Lysa her claim, and thus all of her children's claims come before Lysa and any of her children, so even while Robert lives Sansa is the heir to both Riverrun and Harrenhall(Exluding LF's new claim to it) behind Edmure and his child.

To my best knowledge, male-preference primogeniture always tries to put a male in hold of said title as soon as possible. So if the claimants are all sisters, and they all have male children, the oldest sister inherits. If not, then the oldest with male children. If no male offspring exist, the firstborn daughter of the firstborn daughter.
So, even though Sansa is the daughter of the older Catelyn, she gets behind Robert sinse she lacks ... several parts to qualify her as male.

[Northern_Star]

IB= FM= Petyr Baelish = FM = IB

 

This Endeavour isn’t simple, it doesn’t come cheap either and it’s the perfect cover story if anything goes wrong.

Littlefinger gets injured in the duell with Brendan Stark, I believe he died and a FM took his identity. 

The IB simply ships gold to Gulltown and makes LF shine.

That’s pretty much a golden ticket to the small council. Faceless Peet emerges as Master of Coin in Kings Landing where he quickly in-debts the crown to the IB and starts a war between 2 of the major houses which engulfs the 7 kingdoms and burns the land. He than puts a new betrothed in place for the young King and kills him with the help of the house of the queen to be.

and so on....

 

so whats the goal? All men must die?

 

LF - FM connection: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baal_(demon)

[aryagonnakill#2]

6 hours ago, Lemon of Lemonwood said:

I think @Nevets said it best. When he has the situation sorted out in the Vale and things look better in the Riverlands, I think he will be happy to go and remind them who's boss.

As for the emptiness of the title in the quote by Sansa in ACoK, I think it refers more to Harrenhal being captured by Roose Bolton at the time and the Tullys and Robb being still very much alive and kicking, which means Joffrey gave LF titles he didn't even control of at the time. After the Red Wedding and the Fall of Riverrun though, the titles passed to the Crown in reality aswell, so the grants suddenly become very, very real.

To my best knowledge, male-preference primogeniture always tries to put a male in hold of said title as soon as possible. So if the claimants are all sisters, and they all have male children, the oldest sister inherits. If not, then the oldest with male children. If no male offspring exist, the firstborn daughter of the firstborn daughter.
So, even though Sansa is the daughter of the older Catelyn, she gets behind Robert sinse she lacks ... several parts to qualify her as male.

Lordships always pass through the "main line" first.  Take the Karstark example.  A daughter comes before an uncle there, transferring to this example Sansa comes before Lysa.  Since Catlyn comes before Lysa, all Catlyns children come before all of Lysa's.  That's not to say that in the real world a male couldn't get some allies and make a claim, but on paper Sansa comes before Robert.

[Lemon of Lemonwood]

2 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Lordships always pass through the "main line" first.  Take the Karstark example.  A daughter comes before an uncle there, transferring to this example Sansa comes before Lysa.  Since Catlyn comes before Lysa, all Catlyns children come before all of Lysa's.  That's not to say that in the real world a male couldn't get some allies and make a claim, but on paper Sansa comes before Robert.

Alys comes before Arnolf and his ilk because she is daughter of Lord Rickard and sister of Harrion.
Both Sansa and Robert are nephew and niece to Edmure, so, as the Great Council results tell us, a male is preferred to a female of equal grade of kinship and thus Robert, in the absence of Bran and Rickon, comes first.

[aryagonnakill#2]

7 minutes ago, Lemon of Lemonwood said:

Alys comes before Arnolf and his ilk because she is daughter of Lord Rickard and sister of Harrion.
Both Sansa and Robert are nephew and niece to Edmure, so, as the Great Council results tell us, a male is preferred to a female of equal grade of kinship and thus Robert, in the absence of Bran and Rickon, comes first.

Do you deny that Sansa comes before Arya?  Tywin states to to Tyrion afterall.  So why deny that Catlyn comes before Lysa?

And the Great Council doesn't tell us anything, any result can be obtained its a vote, and only in respect to the royal line anyway.

[Colonel Green]

31 minutes ago, Lemon of Lemonwood said:

Alys comes before Arnolf and his ilk because she is daughter of Lord Rickard and sister of Harrion.
Both Sansa and Robert are nephew and niece to Edmure, so, as the Great Council results tell us, a male is preferred to a female of equal grade of kinship and thus Robert, in the absence of Bran and Rickon, comes first.

The Great Council was only to do with the royal line, and in any event, the deciding event there was not equal grade of kinship.  Viserys was of the direct male line, while Laenor was of the female line.  Catelyn and Lysa's children are both female-line claimants.

I've seen a number of people express skepticism here that Littlefinger would ever give up the Lord Protector title because he'd then be relying on manipulating others, which is uncertain.  I really do not understand this argument (which comes up a lot) -- manipulating people to do what he wants them to do is Littlefinger's #1 skill and strategy.  If he found Harry controllable, he wouldn't hesitate, if it got him what he needed for the next phase of his plans (a much more workable figurehead than Robert).

[Lemon of Lemonwood]

On 14/10/2016 at 7:23 PM, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Do you deny that Sansa comes before Arya?  Tywin states to to Tyrion afterall.  So why deny that Catlyn comes before Lysa?

And the Great Council doesn't tell us anything, any result can be obtained its a vote, and only in respect to the royal line anyway.

 

On 14/10/2016 at 7:52 PM, Colonel Green said:

The Great Council was only to do with the royal line, and in any event, the deciding event there was not equal grade of kinship.  Viserys was of the direct male line, while Laenor was of the female line.  Catelyn and Lysa's children are both female-line claimants.

Both points are right, the Great Council concerns the throne, but given the actual lords voted for it, it appears that preference to male rulers is very, very real, and Andal custom and female claimants can be disregarded in favor of a male heir of equal grade of affinity.

Accepting that the inheritance law of Westeros is male-preference primogeniture, let's give the inheritance pattern as we know it so far 

• The first person with a valid claim is the firstborn son of the current lord and his descendants.
• Sould the firstborn son die with no descendants, the next eldest son and his descendants.
• If there is no son of the current lord left, his firstborn daughter.
• After the daughters and their descenants come uncles and aunts.

And this is were trouble begins. What happens if there are only multiple daughters and only one of them has sons?

Let's check the case of the Darry sisters, Mariya and Jeyne:

Quote

Cleos married one of the plowman's daughters, you will recall. His grieving widow is furious that her sons were not granted her lord father's lands. Gatehouse Ami is Darry only on her mother's side. My good-daughter Jeyne is her aunt, a full sister to Lady Mariya."

"A younger sister," Jaime reminded her, "and Ty will have Riverrun, a greater prize than Darry."

The quote implies that indeed, Mariya Darry is ahead of Jeyne on the inheritane.

However, Jaime is not the most well-versed man in law and custom to begin with, plus the claim of Jeyne's sons is not so much dismissed for legality's sake, but rather because "they will get the much richer Riverrun, so let poor Lance take a piece of land and a wife with some ties to it". Basically, Amarei's descent from Mariya is used more to endear the Darry Lannisters to their folk rather than for legal reasons and male-preference primogeniture is set aside for convinience, disregarding both Ty and Willem, plus still alive Little Walder, who would normally inherit through his mother.

So, when Little Walder's  death will get known and and with Lancel dissolving the marriage, Kevan dead and Cersei furious at them all, since Amarei will be too old and slutty to marry Martyn, I think that Tywin and Willem's claims will be considered superior to Ami's, older Mariya and all, and one of them, possibly Willem, could get back Darry from his non-Darry Lannister cousins.

Again, I may be wrong, the circumstances in which ladies (like Lady Waynwood or Oakheart) came to rule their Houses. Did they marry cousins to consolidate their control their lands? Are there cousins making noises against their rule on the account of their sex? Until we learn, we can only speculate.

[Colonel Green]

5 hours ago, Lemon of Lemonwood said:

Both points are right, the Great Council concerns the throne, but given the actual lords voted for it, it appears that preference to male rulers is very, very real, and Andal custom and female claimants can be disregarded in favor of a male heir of equal grade of affinity.

It seems to me that there's a different standard for the throne compared to banner houses, seeing as there's only one known crowned head outside of Dorne (an unknown Gardener queen), but female heads of banner houses appear to be uncontroversial.

[Lemon of Lemonwood]

2 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

It seems to me that there's a different standard for the throne compared to banner houses, seeing as there's only one known crowned head outside of Dorne (an unknown Gardener queen), but female heads of banner houses appear to be uncontroversial.

We agree on almost every part except the uncontroversial.

As we see in the cases of Rohanne Wbber and Alys Karstark, while the letter of the law may favor them in theory, it is always very possible that a male cousin/uncle can press his weaker claaim and, if the deciding overlord is possitively predisposed towards him, even win them on the virtue of possessing a pennis  alone.

While I admitt we don't have much textual evidence, my suspicion is that, when possible, the ruling ladies will choose a cousin of their house to marry, to tie the family branches back together and get more allies within their own family.

Also, I remembered that the Hornwood case to give as a good example. Berena Hornwod was not considered herself as a new rullinhg Lady of Hornwood despite being herself the closest legitimate blood relative to the late Lord Halys. Instead, the solution that would have been probably the most acceptable would be for her younger son Beren to be "adopted" into the Horwood line again.

Why Beren and not Brandon Tallhart though? Maybe Beren was the least significant Tallhart and could be spared to another house. But maybe, since there was war going on, and Benfred was a restless lad likely to get in trouble, Leobald Tallhart was forward-thinking and had a mind to keep Brandon around and wed him to Eddara should it come to her being the New Lady of Torrhen's Square, making him a lord of Tallhart and avoiding conflict in the house.

There is an excellent SSM discussing the matter of succession laws, and it seems to suggest that succession is often decided by politics rather than law , meanning that yes, in most cases between a male and a female cousin, with Westeros being a male-preference society, the male cousin wins.

[Colonel Green]

18 hours ago, Lemon of Lemonwood said:

As we see in the cases of Rohanne Wbber and Alys Karstark, while the letter of the law may favor them in theory, it is always very possible that a male cousin/uncle can press his weaker claaim and, if the deciding overlord is possitively predisposed towards him, even win them on the virtue of possessing a penis  alone.

In Rohanne's case, the issue was specific to her father's will, which stipulated that she would lose the ladyship if certain conditions weren't met.  Alys Karstark's case, if anything, actually reaffirms that her succession is uncontroversial, as Arnolf and Cregan, despite having total de facto control of the castle, need to marry her to Cregan in order to make everything legal.

Quote

Also, I remembered that the Hornwood case to give as a good example. Berena Hornwod was not considered herself as a new rullinhg Lady of Hornwood despite being herself the closest legitimate blood relative to the late Lord Halys. Instead, the solution that would have been probably the most acceptable would be for her younger son Beren to be "adopted" into the Horwood line again.

Everything about the Hornwood succession is weird, and doesn't fit with anything else we've seen of how legal succession is handled, honestly.

[John Suburbs]

On ‎10‎/‎17‎/‎2016 at 2:59 AM, Lemon of Lemonwood said:

We agree on almost every part except the uncontroversial.

As we see in the cases of Rohanne Wbber and Alys Karstark, while the letter of the law may favor them in theory, it is always very possible that a male cousin/uncle can press his weaker claaim and, if the deciding overlord is possitively predisposed towards him, even win them on the virtue of possessing a pennis  alone.

While I admitt we don't have much textual evidence, my suspicion is that, when possible, the ruling ladies will choose a cousin of their house to marry, to tie the family branches back together and get more allies within their own family.

Also, I remembered that the Hornwood case to give as a good example. Berena Hornwod was not considered herself as a new rullinhg Lady of Hornwood despite being herself the closest legitimate blood relative to the late Lord Halys. Instead, the solution that would have been probably the most acceptable would be for her younger son Beren to be "adopted" into the Horwood line again.

Why Beren and not Brandon Tallhart though? Maybe Beren was the least significant Tallhart and could be spared to another house. But maybe, since there was war going on, and Benfred was a restless lad likely to get in trouble, Leobald Tallhart was forward-thinking and had a mind to keep Brandon around and wed him to Eddara should it come to her being the New Lady of Torrhen's Square, making him a lord of Tallhart and avoiding conflict in the house.

There is an excellent SSM discussing the matter of succession laws, and it seems to suggest that succession is often decided by politics rather than law , meanning that yes, in most cases between a male and a female cousin, with Westeros being a male-preference society, the male cousin wins.

Rules and tradition are fine, but when push comes to shove most people would rather their lands be protected by a lord, not a lady. So even if a lady does assume the chair due to laws of inheritance, she is still under the gun to marry someone who can protect her claim and produce a new heir. In that way, she may hold the title but the real power is wielded by her husband -- just as Tyrion would have effectively ruled if he made it to Winterfell with Sansa.

If said lady resists marriage and attempts to rule in her own right, she better have a decent army to back her up or else a rival lord might march in a force a marriage -- which may or may not stand depending upon the disposition of the liege lord, most which have a vested interest in vassal houses being led by strong men rather than women.

In the end, all justice flows from the king to high lords and downward, so whatever they say goes. And the practicalities of maintaining a strong realm outweigh any notions of hereditary rights, especially for women.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

To become king ,