US Elections 2016: The END IS NEAR

[Kalbear]

3 minutes ago, Triskan said:

Yeah, I think what most elected Republicans are doing is hoping to "condemn" Trump at times while never officially announcing that they're dropping support, hope he loses, and hope it can be forgotten once it's over. 

This one certainly does feel a bit different in that so many GOP bigwigs have come out so suddenly. 

Here's the thing though: how much remaining dirt on Trump has yet to be aired?  I fully expect a few more amazing Trump reveals between now and 11/8 whether that's stuff like this, revelations that he's molested his daughter, or new dirt on his business practices. 

Yeah, at this point given what the timing has been and what the revelations has been, I can only think that Clinton's got at least one more bullet in the chamber and potentially a couple. There are what, 3 more Fridays until election? I can see there being more. 

ETA: another Utah rep unendorses, this time a congressman. 

[Larry of the Lawn]

2 minutes ago, Harakiri said:

I wish I lived in a country where sexually assaulting women and bragging about it on tape would disqualify you from the presidency.

 

4 minutes ago, Triskan said:

Yeah, I think what most elected Republicans are doing is hoping to "condemn" Trump at times while never officially announcing that they're dropping support, hope he loses, and hope it can be forgotten once it's over. 

This one certainly does feel a bit different in that so many GOP bigwigs have come out so suddenly. 

Here's the thing though: how much remaining dirt on Trump has yet to be aired?  I fully expect a few more amazing Trump reveals between now and 11/8 whether that's stuff like this, revelations that he's molested his daughter, or new dirt on his business practices. 

Yeah, at what point do more Republicans try to visibly distance themselves from this shit?  This goes beyond just then winds of your party blowing a different direction.  The different direction is fucking awful and disgusting and represents the most fucked up aspects of this country. 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

20 minutes ago, Harakiri said:

I wish I lived in a country where sexually assaulting women and bragging about it on tape would disqualify you from the presidency.

It does, in a practical sense. This is going to kill him in the polls. Wish it had come a little later, honestly. Second October surprise to date, and I think this is the worst one for him yet. 

[TrackerNeil]

29 minutes ago, Triskan said:

Yeah, I think what most elected Republicans are doing is hoping to "condemn" Trump at times while never officially announcing that they're dropping support, hope he loses, and hope it can be forgotten once it's over. 

What else can they do? Opposing Trump will bring the wrath of the troglodytes, for sure. 

The delicious part of all this is that there was really nothing anyone in the party elite could have done to derail Trump that would have been less harmful and disruptive than what is happening now. Like one of those finger-pullers, once you're in, there's no good way to get out.

[Jaxom 1974]

What/how does this not dominate every question he's asked out of the gate on Sunday?  Does he even show for the debate?

[Dr. Pepper]

I have to say that I don't have much faith that this would kill him in the polls.  Maybe a small, short-lived blip, but not much more.  People who were already going to vote for Trump were either the sort who cheer on his behavior, those who just can't stand Clinton, or those who think so little of women that they will vote for Trump in the hopes that it will lead to a stacking of the Supreme Court to ensure reproductive choice for women erodes down to nothing.  Most of the GOP who had already endorsed him aren't backing off on their endorsement.  Can't imagine the electorate will either.  

[The Marquis de Leech]

47 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Another is that Republicans in DC are scheduling a meeting to decide WTF to do in case Trump is not the nominee. 

A bit late there, given that presumably Trump will be on the ballot pretty much everywhere.

Frankly, if I were a Republican politician, this would be an awesome bit of news. It provides the political  cover for what I wanted to do all along - publicly run away from Trump without appearing a traitor to the party. We're at last seeing the Goldwater/McGovern effect of the nominee being hung out to dry.

[Altherion]

24 minutes ago, Triskan said:

This one certainly does feel a bit different in that so many GOP bigwigs have come out so suddenly. 

Here's the thing though: how much remaining dirt on Trump has yet to be aired?  I fully expect a few more amazing Trump reveals between now and 11/8 whether that's stuff like this, revelations that he's molested his daughter, or new dirt on his business practices. 

I'm kind of curious what else they have on him. This one is really bad; unless they have an indictable offense, I am not sure what there is that is worse. I have little doubt that there will be dirt on his businesses, but that isn't going to draw the same kind of attention as the media is lavishing on these comments. The lewd comments have a couple of properties which are difficult to replicate. First, they're obviously visceral. Second, they're nearly universally unacceptable. This is not violating some convention that was suddenly imposed a few years ago or saying something that many people (perhaps even an outright majority) believe, but politicians will not say. This goes against something much older -- at no point in the history of our country would a respectable person say things like that, not in those words and certainly not on camera. He's lucky there's still a month left in which people might forget about this or have it eclipsed by newer surprises.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

15 minutes ago, Dr. Pepper said:

I have to say that I don't have much faith that this would kill him in the polls.  Maybe a small, short-lived blip, but not much more.  People who were already going to vote for Trump were either the sort who cheer on his behavior, those who just can't stand Clinton, or those who think so little of women that they will vote for Trump in the hopes that it will lead to a stacking of the Supreme Court to ensure reproductive choice for women erodes down to nothing.  Most of the GOP who had already endorsed him aren't backing off on their endorsement.  Can't imagine the electorate will either.  

 Take him out of the oven, he's done. Nothing left but to write the best-selling memoir.

[Shryke]

13 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

A bit late there, given that presumably Trump will be on the ballot pretty much everywhere.

Frankly, if I were a Republican politician, this would be an awesome bit of news. It provides the political  cover for what I wanted to do all along - publicly run away from Trump without appearing a traitor to the party. We're at last seeing the Goldwater/McGovern effect of the nominee being hung out to dry.

It's not though. Cause if you are a Republican politician running for office this year, you've already tied yourself to Trump. Even Ted Cruz and John McCain have bent the knee.

There's already examples of Democrats going after Republicans for this and this news will only intensify the trend that's been going extra strong since the first debate. They are already all on record and on camera being Trump people and their opponents are gonna do everything they can to not let them run away from it. And the base they endorsed Trump to win over in the first place is unlikely to be happy if they suddenly turn on Trump either.

[Castel]

26 minutes ago, Dr. Pepper said:

I have to say that I don't have much faith that this would kill him in the polls.  Maybe a small, short-lived blip, but not much more.  People who were already going to vote for Trump were either the sort who cheer on his behavior, those who just can't stand Clinton, or those who think so little of women that they will vote for Trump in the hopes that it will lead to a stacking of the Supreme Court to ensure reproductive choice for women erodes down to nothing.  Most of the GOP who had already endorsed him aren't backing off on their endorsement.  Can't imagine the electorate will either.  

How do you define "killed"? He's losing...clearly. And has been losing since the debate.

Sure,if you expect a massive Mondale-esque death then no. If you expect a death-by-a-thousand-cuts of Trump not being able to string together a couple of days of good media (the VP debate is irrelevant beyond the ads, as suspected) and his toxic image sticking around constantly while the string runs out and he goes into debates where he has the most chance to change people's minds with a ton of recent baggage then...yes. 

People keep talking about "his supporters" in hushed tones as the electoral Zaudunyani that won't be swayed by reason or terror and will march off a cliff if he says...who cares, frankly? Do they get to vote twice? 

The race isn't about his die-hards, and if you spend time hoping to convert away every single person on at the end of the spectrum in the polarized US of A you're gonna have a bad time. It's an odd case where the lowering of the bar is actually working for Trump; Clinton is supposed to Reagan him apparently and, if she doesn't, he's not losing.

I mean, I don't think any recent election involved us talking about say...Obama pilfering McCain or Romney's core base out from under them. That's not the standard. 

This shit will hit him, it'll hit any vulnerable GOP seat downwind of him (Kelly Ayotte pulled back on her statements that he was a good role model but her opponent won't forget-though she's ahead last I checked) and it'll be bad. His already horrible numbers amongst women will stay horrible at least, and he'll have trouble in suburbs.

EDIT: It's actually fascinating how everyone is really fixated on winning over his people. I'm watching TYT right now and they admit he'll likely lose but go straight back to talking about his jihadis. 

[SerPaladin]

Oh, man, let's see him withdraw. Please please please. Go scurry back to your golden cave, you cro-magnon. Embarrassed and beaten.

I would like to see if Hillary can beat a blank line in the R column. 

Edited to add: just saw his video. He's doubling down. He's toast..

[Shryke]

Nobody is trying to win over Trump's real supporters. The strategy is to convince those voting R for the SCOTUS seat or out of habit or because they hate Clinton to stay home or to vote Clinton just this one time or anything of that sort. To basically peel off all the support he gets for being a Republican candidate and leave him only his hardcore base.

This is also the situation that terrifies the GOP to it's core because that's the kind of thing that kills you downballot.

[all swedes are racist]

"Lewd comments"? Let's get real here, he's talking about gross sexual assault. Don't fucking minimize this.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

 Brought low by Access Hollywood and Billy Bush. Now that's some investigative journalism.

[Horza]

Who would have thought that nominating Donald Trump would turn out to be such a bad idea?

[DanteGabriel]

11 hours ago, Rhllor's void lobster said:

 

 

7 hours ago, Shryke said:

Well, kinda.

Last I saw the numbers in the primary Trump is big among what you could call the culturally evangelical. This is actually distinct from the people who attend church regularly who were, at least int he primaries, not big Trump fans at all as I remember.

Never mind the cultural evangelicals -- I hope it destroys their preachers, the Jerry Falwell Jrs of the world. I want to broadcast the Trump clip from the PA system of every goddamn megachurch on Sunday. Every one of the evangelical false prophets who've endorsed Trump needs to bear this stain forever. Literally forever. They abandoned whatever morals they hadn't already sold out, in the pursuit of temporal power.

 

4 hours ago, Kalbear said:

I'm really, really looking forward to the polls on Monday.

I'm looking forward to the debate and how the Clinton campaign is going to troll him before and after.

 

3 hours ago, Castel said:

Holy shit. The camel's back finally breaks.

Am I a bit cynical to think that this is due to Clinton approaching her post-convention numbers again? People are seeing that Trump is once again in a horrible position and don't have to worry about being tainted as a GOP's Nader; who helped ruin a tight race and give Clinton the White House (and take some Congressional seats along in the riptide)

Or is it less cynicism and more spite? Cause, if that's true, Ted Cruz's humiliating capitulation has now left him stranded on the wrong side as the waters shift again. And he has nowhere to go. Which...would be fucking hilarious. 

I give no credit to Paul Ryan. I bet he'd still have kept the invite good if Trump were up five points. He had plenty of other reasons to disavow Trump. Fuck that hollow-eyed smarmy snake.

[Castel]

1 hour ago, Shryke said:

Nobody is trying to win over Trump's real supporters. The strategy is to convince those voting R for the SCOTUS seat or out of habit or because they hate Clinton to stay home or to vote Clinton just this one time or anything of that sort. To basically peel off all the support he gets for being a Republican candidate and leave him only his hardcore base.

This is also the situation that terrifies the GOP to it's core because that's the kind of thing that kills you downballot.

Hillary's plan has generally been to alienate him from anyone in the GOP that can be alienated,yes. For whatever reason the blitz after the convention with "moderate" republicans didn't seem to work (maybe third party people bleeding off Hillary's lead?) but they'll keep plugging at it now.

 

But I've run into a lot of concern from progressives and people in the Dem umbrella over his supposedly rock-solid core base. It seems to be an almost psychological fixation thing where they glumly note that some segment of the population will remain eternally hostile to them and...it's just a bit moot. It's the US. No one's pocket gets picked to that degree. 

[The guy from the Vale]

1 hour ago, Horza said:

Who would have thought that nominating Donald Trump would turn out to be such a bad idea?

Lots and lots of people? I was honestly more amazed that Trump didn't collapse far sooner than he did.

[Seli]

How much of voting in the USA is done early in these general elections, and when does that process start? And importantly in what states, since I believe it is regulated on a state to state basis. International/expat voting has started as far as I can tell for example.

Hitting big this far ahead of the actual election day might be partly motivated by the hope and need of reaching early voters in time.