Kalbear Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 At least I hope so. Slightly more than a month to go. Here's a fun toy to play with - the 538 turnout tracker. You can play with it by demographics and turnout to see who would win what, where. The most interesting thing I found is that even if 100% of white people turned out to vote Clinton would still win, provided that they stayed in the same relative percentages of republican and democrat voters that they do now. Also interesting to me is that while the hispanic vote matters, it's not nearly the tipping point it could be. If you got rid of every single Hispanic vote you'd only give Colorado, New Mexico and Florida to Republicans (all other things being equal). Whereas if you had 100% African-American turnout dems would win both Carolinas, Mississippi, Georgia, and be close to Alabama and Louisiana (seriously!) and if you have 0% AA turnout you basically have democrats winning only the west and east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 5, 2016 Author Share Posted October 5, 2016 And apparently Weld 'giving up' was a bit of interpretive wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I have an open question and I'd really love to hear about what you fine folks are seeing. I have worked on several campaigns, and lawn signs have always been a staple. However, this year I'm barely seeing any signs here in MN (Twin Cities area). Now I'd expect a slight drop off because there aren't any statewide races outside of the presidential campaign, but there are still a lot of local races, and often times, those can be the campaigns that rely on the visibility from lawn signs the most. And on top of that, there's an unusually high number of incumbent state legislators who are not seeking reelection, so you'd think the new candidates would be doing everything in their power to get their name out there. So my question is simply this; "Are you guys seeing the same thing in your area? Are lawn signs being phased out in favor of internet advertising or because of some other reason?" I'm mostly curious with swing states/districts, but I'd love as much input as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manhole Eunuchsbane Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: I have an open question and I'd really love to hear about what you fine folks are seeing. I have worked on several campaigns, and lawn signs have always been a staple. However, this year I'm barely seeing any signs here in MN (Twin Cities area). Now I'd expect a slight drop off because there aren't any statewide races outside of the presidential campaign, but there are still a lot of local races, and often times, those can be the campaigns that rely on the visibility from lawn signs the most. And on top of that, there's an unusually high number of incumbent state legislators who are not seeking reelection, so you'd think the new candidates would be doing everything in their power to get their name out there. So my question is simply this; "Are you guys seeing the same thing in your area? Are lawn signs being phased out in favor of internet advertising or because of some other reason?" I'm mostly curious with swing states/districts, but I'd love as much input as possible. I've noticed the same thing. Almost exclusively local signage (School Board, County Clerk, etc). I've barely seen a sign for Clinton or Trump. Seems to me this was somewhat the case last time around, although not quite as pronounced. The thing that stands out more for me though is the lack of bumper stickers. I see way more Bernie stickers than anything else, and very little for Hillary or Trump. Seems like the general populace is pretty disengaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bennis of the Brown Shield Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 31 minutes ago, Kalbear said: At least I hope so. Slightly more than a month to go. Here's a fun toy to play with - the 538 turnout tracker. You can play with it by demographics and turnout to see who would win what, where. The most interesting thing I found is that even if 100% of white people turned out to vote Clinton would still win, provided that they stayed in the same relative percentages of republican and democrat voters that they do now. Also interesting to me is that while the hispanic vote matters, it's not nearly the tipping point it could be. If you got rid of every single Hispanic vote you'd only give Colorado, New Mexico and Florida to Republicans (all other things being equal). Whereas if you had 100% African-American turnout dems would win both Carolinas, Mississippi, Georgia, and be close to Alabama and Louisiana (seriously!) and if you have 0% AA turnout you basically have democrats winning only the west and east coast. An interesting thing I found was that having non-college educated whites (Trump's strongest supporters) go Republican at a rate of 66% instead of the 60% that Romney got would be enough to win him the election, even without touching turnout or anything else. Such as the pretty likely possibility that fewer Black voters will come out for Hillary than Obama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Pepper Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 12 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: I have an open question and I'd really love to hear about what you fine folks are seeing. I have worked on several campaigns, and lawn signs have always been a staple. However, this year I'm barely seeing any signs here in MN (Twin Cities area). Now I'd expect a slight drop off because there aren't any statewide races outside of the presidential campaign, but there are still a lot of local races, and often times, those can be the campaigns that rely on the visibility from lawn signs the most. And on top of that, there's an unusually high number of incumbent state legislators who are not seeking reelection, so you'd think the new candidates would be doing everything in their power to get their name out there. So my question is simply this; "Are you guys seeing the same thing in your area? Are lawn signs being phased out in favor of internet advertising or because of some other reason?" I'm mostly curious with swing states/districts, but I'd love as much input as possible. I'm still relatively new to this state so can't comment on long term signage trends. I can say that in the smaller towns in Georgia I constantly see huge signs in favor of Trump. Most of them appear to be homemade, are about the size of billboards and are on private property. I don't know if that's typical of small town Georgia, but it's not something I've ever seen before during a presidential election year. Usually just small yard signs, not these massive billboard type signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manhole Eunuchsbane Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 38 minutes ago, Dr. Pepper said: I'm still relatively new to this state so can't comment on long term signage trends. I can say that in the smaller towns in Georgia I constantly see huge signs in favor of Trump. Most of them appear to be homemade, are about the size of billboards and are on private property. I don't know if that's typical of small town Georgia, but it's not something I've ever seen before during a presidential election year. Usually just small yard signs, not these massive billboard type signs. I saw a handful of those back when Ron Paul ran, but I'm pretty sure it was one guy with multiple properties (or who got permission to use space from the folks who owned the property) as all the sign looked like they were made by the same person. (Same colored paint and font) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inigima Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I see a fair number of Trump signs around the Baltimore suburbs; few Clinton signs. However, Maryland trends heavily Democratic, and I don't expect a loudmouthed, racist boor like Trump will improve Republican margins here. I suspect the same character traits that lead one to support Trump might also lead one to be vocal about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 5, 2016 Author Share Posted October 5, 2016 I live in the Seattle area but in a more rural section. There are almost no Clinton signs up, but there are a few obnoxiously large Trump signs. When I lived in Seattle proper there were a TON of Obama signs everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Walker Texas Ranger Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 And they wonder why Asian-Americans are going Democrat: http://www.vox.com/2016/10/4/13169256/fox-news-watters-world-chinatown?utm_campaign=vox&utm_content=entry&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokisnow Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 We were on central Missouri for a wedding last weekend, saw two obnoxiously large Trump signs and nothing else. I'd guess 2 meters wide by 1 meter tall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swordfish Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I've seen zero signs for either candidate in Portland. Not surprising, I think. You have to be at lease somewhat excited about an actual candidate to allow their sign in your yard. neither of these candidates generate a lot of excitement. At least, not positive excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gertrude Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Hadn't thought of it, but I don't remember seeing yard signs around for either. Usually you see them around. Now I guess after (possibly) successfully tuning that shit out, I am going to be hyper-aware of it (Iowa, reporting in) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boris the Blade Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I've only seen two obnoxious Trump signs. Well one is a sign the other is a flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BloodRider Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 hours ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said: I've noticed the same thing. Almost exclusively local signage (School Board, County Clerk, etc). I've barely seen a sign for Clinton or Trump. Seems to me this was somewhat the case last time around, although not quite as pronounced. The thing that stands out more for me though is the lack of bumper stickers. I see way more Bernie stickers than anything else, and very little for Hillary or Trump. Seems like the general populace is pretty disengaged. Aside from some chuclefuck about town who replaced his 8ft truck bed mounted flagpole confederate flag with a Trump flag, I too am see many less signs. There is a Johnson Weld (hurts me to think about that) sign down the street though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
all swedes are racist Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Hmm, yeah. Aside from one bodega type corner store with some Hillary signs, nothing in my corner of town. Not even local stuff aside from probably 5year old hand painted plywood signs for sheriff. suddenly inspired to create a "Bring Back Menino" sign for our yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alguien Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I live in Seattle proper, just above the University District. Haven't seen any Trump signs (not surprising). I've seen a few Hillary signs, but there are still many more Bernie signs out even now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lany Freelove Cassandra Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I live in a rural area, so I see a lot of Trump signs. Even a business marquee that says "Vote Trump Make America great again." I want to buy some letters and replace it with "Make America racist again" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkess Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I've seen lots of local race signs but not much for the Presidential candidates. I did see a bumper sticker for Hillary the other day--at least, I thought it was for Hillary, but I finally realized after 1.5 miles of being stuck in traffic behind the guy that it was actually an anti-Hillary bumper sticker. But pretty much the only thing you could see was her "H" logo so I had a chuckle about his fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Pepper Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Oh yeah, I've seen a shit ton of anti-Hillary stickers. Several calling her a bitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.