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College Football 2016 - B1G expectations


dbunting

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On ‎10‎/‎15‎/‎2016 at 11:39 PM, DireWolfSpirit said:

I'm thrilled with seeing the Badgers give the Buckeyes all they can handle today. With the Wolverines beating Wisconsin and Wisconsin being this close with OSU (they are tied at 23 w/ the clock running out in the 4th) has me thinking we can potentially beat this Buckeye team in the end of season throwdown.

This looks like its gonna go OT, great battle.

 

Well, Wisconsin lost to Michigan and OSU, plus you have to get past Nebraska to face either one. Even if Wisconsin beats Nebraska, if no one else does then Nebraska would go and not Wisconsin. Still a long time to go to worry about that stuff though.

I will say that as a Michigan fan it was nice to see this be a tight game, makes me feel better about Michigan's close win over Wisconsin.

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Here I am with yet another controversial opinion. I think that Wisconsin is the third best team in the nation right now. I think that on a neutral field,  they blow out Alabama.  I have no reason to say this as a Big 12 Longhorns fan other than that is just what I see this year. 

This is yet another reason I hate these playoffs.  Even if you expanded the field to 8 teams,  it would not give a place for a team like this to be a part of it.  I could very easily see this team beat anyone in the nation,  including to the two teams they narrowly lost to in Ohio State and Michigan.  

 

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I think in an 8-team playoff, there very well could be room for a 10-2 team the likes of Wisconsin this year (assuming they win out and go 10-2 yet didn't make their conference championship game).  It also depends on the performance of the rest of the field as well.  I think it will eventually end up at 8 teams.  Just more money to be made if nothing else.

The thing I like about college football is that at 12 games, the regular season is in effect early rounds of the playoffs.  These (especially conference) games really matter and have post-season implications.  As to who gets in the playoffs versus who gets left out, you're going to end up splitting hairs no matter what.

It's the same argument you see in basketball... You hear the people who want to keep expanding the tourney so that more teams have a shot... but given that almost every conference awards an automatic bid to the conference tournament champion, my counter-argument has always been these teams that are left out had a shot in their conference tourney, and they lost.  The conference tourneys are just extensions of the NCAA tourney in effect.  The same applies to the regular season in football, more or less.

As to the other bit, I really hate defending Alabama, but I really can't take the leap that the Badgers losing to tOSU at home in a close game equates to them blowing out Alabama on a neutral site.  

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Alabama would pummel Wisconsin.  I'd bet $100 on it.  LSU probably would have beaten them as well if they'd made their coaching change a little earlier.  I think Wisconsin is a good team, but their AP and Coaches rank of #10 is about right... and probably even a bit generous for sporting a 4-2 record at this point in the season.  

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3 hours ago, Howdyphillip said:

Here I am with yet another controversial opinion. I think that Wisconsin is the third best team in the nation right now. I think that on a neutral field,  they blow out Alabama.  I have no reason to say this as a Big 12 Longhorns fan other than that is just what I see this year. 

This is yet another reason I hate these playoffs.  Even if you expanded the field to 8 teams,  it would not give a place for a team like this to be a part of it.  I could very easily see this team beat anyone in the nation,  including to the two teams they narrowly lost to in Ohio State and Michigan.  

 

And this is why I always rebel against any "the SEC is overrated" trash.  I think the Big 10 is probably the best football conference in the nation this year. But Alabama deserves it's number 1, and looks like it would beat Michigan and Ohio State the majority of the time on a neutral field.  Wisconsin played out of its mind to beat an underperforming LSU team that is probably the 5th team in its division at best this year.

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26 minutes ago, Rhom said:

Do you think Ole Miss is appreciably worse than 4-2 Auburn?

Well played, ser. :laugh:

And no, I don't.  I was thinking there were a slew of other teams with better records/resumes hanging around just outside the top 25... but after some brief digging, I got nothin'.  Mostly a knee-jerk comment as I was surprised the Rebels were still ranked (but good for them). 

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It was an ugly, close win for my Utes, which describes a lot of their play so far this season. I have a sneaking suspicion that they will not lose with dignity to Washington when the time comes, especially with so many of their backs injured. It's going to be some horrific 56-14 blow-out.

But hey, they still climbed the polls! They're back in the teens again!

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39 minutes ago, Ded As Ned said:

Well played, ser. :laugh:

And no, I don't.  I was thinking there were a slew of other teams with better records/resumes hanging around just outside the top 25... but after some brief digging, I got nothin'.  Mostly a knee-jerk comment as I was surprised the Rebels were still ranked (but good for them). 

To answer y'alls question - as a fan I don't think Ole Miss deserves to still be ranked after that debacle in Fayetteville. The only reason they're hanging around is a "close" loss to Bama whom everyone still perceives as the best team right now. 

Sadly I believe any controversy will come to an end Saturday night when revitalized LSU lays waste to OM in death valley. Coach O's ultimate revenge fantasy come true. 

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Similarly, as a Nebraska fan, I don't think they deserve to be ranked 8th right now. Wisconsin is still the better team, and sadly we will probably find that out the hard way in 2 weeks, followed by an even worse lesson at Ohio State. But at least we got one more weekend to enjoy being in the top 10.

I hope my prediction is wrong. GBR.

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6 hours ago, JonSnow4President said:

And this is why I always rebel against any "the SEC is overrated" trash.  I think the Big 10 is probably the best football conference in the nation this year. But Alabama deserves it's number 1, and looks like it would beat Michigan and Ohio State the majority of the time on a neutral field.  Wisconsin played out of its mind to beat an underperforming LSU team that is probably the 5th team in its division at best this year.

The SEC has tended to be extremely overrated.  Alabama is just always really fucking good. Same thing this year. The conference is weak overall. Alabama is a juggernaut and will likely with the championship.

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7 hours ago, dbunting said:

Yeah, no way I can buy Wisconsin beats Alabama on neutral field or even in Wisconsin. And not only beats them but blows them out? Hell to the no.

@Howdyphillip so who are your top 5 teams then if Wisconsin is #3?

 

1. Michigan 

2. Ohio State

3. Wisconsin 

4. Alabama  

5. Washington

 

 

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1 hour ago, sperry said:

The SEC has tended to be extremely overrated.  Alabama is just always really fucking good. Same thing this year. The conference is weak overall. Alabama is a juggernaut and will likely with the championship.

When something like half the last decades national titles are SEC, by multiple SEC teams, it's hard to say they're not 

For the last decade heading into the season (2006-2015.  Unfortunately, the query site I can find does count Texas A&M and Missouri's games prior to their joining)

Conference   SEC Win Percentage Overall      SEC Win Percentage Neutral Site

ACC                 .606                                                 .697
Big 12              .582                                                 .758
Big 10              .633                                                  .667
Pac 12             .571                                                  .600

In other words, they beat everyone of note more than that conference beats them especially at neutral sites.  I'm not including MAC, CUSA, SunBelt, etc for obvious reasons, but the SEC actually struggles with the AAC more than any other conference (.558 win percentage).

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