Could Stannis have won at the battle of Blackwater?

[devilish]

13 minutes ago, Knight of valour said:

Do you think Tywin would let his daughter, dwarf son but still a son and his shining perfect son, his grandson and for all he knows Tommen is in King's Landing aswell and his granddaughter could find herself in Dornish captivity. Do you think really that Tywin would sacrifise all of them? I don't think so at all. He would never accept that.

Tommen is at Rosby. That's all that matters to him. The man cares only about his legacy. 

Cersei had been trouble. Tywin may not believe in the incest thing but her fertility time is close to an end and soon she will be just a useless troublemaker. Tyrion is a problem for him. He's heir for CR and he need to be dealt with sooner rather than later. Joffrey executed Ned and by doing so he brought the entire North and Riverlands against him. He's like the mad king but with less of a prestigious name protecting him. All are a threat to his legacy. Oh if only someone can come and sort this issues for him with him having to do that himself (ie kinslaying is a no no even for Tywin)

Now imagine how things could be without them. Tywin would be regent to a young, easily controlled, decent boy who'll treat Margaery like a queen (and hence strengthening the alliances between the two houses). Jamie will have no one playing him like a violin and would become his heir. Life would be so easier for Tywin

Surely Stannis will pay for his crime. The remaining Baratheons would probably end up become Gregor's plaything while Storm's end would be brought down. But that would be it.

[devilish]

3 minutes ago, Knight of valour said:

Do you think Tywin would let his daughter, dwarf son but still a son and his shining perfect son, his grandson and for all he knows Tommen is in King's Landing aswell and his granddaughter could find herself in Dornish captivity. Do you think really that Tywin would sacrifise all of them? I don't think so at all. He would never accept that.

Tommen is at Rosby. That's all that matters to him. The man cares only about his legacy. 

Cersei had been trouble. Tywin may not believe in the incest thing but her fertility time is close to an end and soon she will be just a useless troublemaker. Tyrion is a problem for him. He's heir for CR and he need to be dealt with sooner rather than later. Joffrey executed Ned and by doing so he brought the entire North and Riverlands against him. He's like the mad king but with less of a prestigious name protecting him. All are a threat to his legacy. 

Now imagine how things could be without them. Tywin would be regent to a young, easily controlled, decent boy who'll treat Margaery like a queen (and hence strengthening the alliances between the two houses). Jamie will have no one playing him like a violin and would become his heir. Life would be so easier for Tywin

[Trigger Warning]

14 hours ago, GallowsKnight said:

Good points. It's why I suggest above Stannis should have left the early. The timing of the Blackwater battle is one of those things I really have to suspend my disbelief for because as you say GRRM wanted this particular siege to go down.

The only thing I have with the strength of the Red Keep is that Tywin seems to have managed to take it in a day during the sack of Kingslanding with 12,000 men while it was defended by "several thousand loyalists". I don't think it was guile either. He started sacking as soon as the gates of Kingslanding were open to him. 

And once the Red Keep was breached Maegor's holdfast was able to be scaled by Lorch and Clegane.

 

GRRM seems to have a penchant for castles falling relatively easily but when speculating I'd rather assume that a castle does what it should do until GRRM says otherwise in specific circumstances. I'm not saying the castle couldn't fall quickly as it did in Robert's Rebellion but when speculating about stuff I think it's a safer bet to assume it wouldn't be captured so quickly, especially if a plan relies on that happening. 

I mean, I don't see any reason from its descriptions in the book as to why it should be easy to capture, if anything it seems a formidable stronghold. 

[Makk]

He should have won easily. Kings landing was accepting refugees for months. He should have planted men inside the city and then used them to open gates from within. Kings landing was not even really defended.

[Wrl6199]

Yeah Stannis made some mistakes during the battle of backwater. II feel like he could have won if he did some of the things differently. but tats not satanist's first time making a mistake.

[Adam Yozza]

2 hours ago, devilish said:

Tommen is at Rosby. That's all that matters to him. The man cares only about his legacy. 

Cersei had been trouble. Tywin may not believe in the incest thing but her fertility time is close to an end and soon she will be just a useless troublemaker. Tyrion is a problem for him. He's heir for CR and he need to be dealt with sooner rather than later. Joffrey executed Ned and by doing so he brought the entire North and Riverlands against him. He's like the mad king but with less of a prestigious name protecting him. All are a threat to his legacy. 

Now imagine how things could be without them. Tywin would be regent to a young, easily controlled, decent boy who'll treat Margaery like a queen (and hence strengthening the alliances between the two houses). Jamie will have no one playing him like a violin and would become his heir. Life would be so easier for Tywin

Except as I mentioned the Crownlands bannermen weren't really loyal to Joffrey. I mean, of the dozen or so house's only two of them sent any men to aid King's Landing. Now there's no reason to believe they'd be any more loyal to Stannis, but odds are they'd bend the knee and they would probably hand Tommen over. With Rosby so close to KL, they could easily do this before Tywin got anywhere near them.

And while Tywin might be willing to sacrifice any of his children or grandchildren to secure victory in the war, would he be willing to let his entire line die out. As you said he's all about legacy. If his two sons, daughter and two grandsons (and he has no reason to believe his granddaughter will be any safer) are all dead, then what legacy does he have.

Furthermore, with Joffrey and Tommen both dead then what motivation does the Reach have for siding with the Lannisters beyond revenge. That might be enough for Loras, but the deal for the Tyrell's joining the Lannisters was to have their daughter become queen. An impossibility if all the male royals are dead. So while the Reach may not join Stannis, I find it hard to believe they'd stick around with Tywin.

And then, with just the Lannister forces left, Tywin could not have taken the city back. His host numbered less than 20,000. Stannis' (pre-Blackwater) had 21,000. Losses in the Blackwater not caused by the relief force numbered at several thousand. Therefore, their armies in this scenario would be about equal strength, with Stannis holding the defensive position and having more morale.

[Light a wight tonight]

22 hours ago, Knight of valour said:

Could Stannis have won at the battle of blackwater especially if Melissandre was with him? I believe he could and i will tell you why.

If Melissandre was with him she would be able to see her death and fire and she would be able to warn Stannis. If i was Stannis i would therfore give special instructions to Ser Imry that he should send scouts to probe the Lannisters and inspect the winch towers. I would have knights capture both winch towers before commencing the main battle preventing the Lannisters from raising the chain. 

I would also send a couple of thousand knights acros blackwater bay to attack the Iron Gate. The Lannisters would have little time to react to this and they would be both suprised and overstretched. They might even be able to capture the gate so fast it would be undefended. 

I would then send in the war galleys of the lords of the Narrow Sea, Lyseni galleys and Myrish sellsails to engage the Lannister fleet keeping the more Valuable and loyal royal war galleys in reserve. The sailing ships would be ferrying a couple of thousand knights acros to the Iron gate and then return to ferry the rest of the army across the blackwater rush after the sea battle has been won.

The first men across the blackwater bay would be knights. It might be wiser to send expendable sellswords in first but i think they would route when the wildfire gets unleashed. The infantry would come behind and form a shieldwall to the west stretching the landgap between King's landing and the blackwater rush to protect the knights against the enemy relief force.

I would have half of knights in in reserve in good order south of the blackwater rush to countercharge any enemy relief forces. If the walls fall quickly they would hurry inside the city but if it drags on they would stay south of the blackwater bay and retreat back and cross the blackwater bay when it is safe and go into the city via the Iron gate.

The 13,000 soldiers across blackwater gate would hurry to capture hostages in the red keep and close the gates behind them and man the walls against the Tyrell and Lannister relief force. I would have Tywin by the balls and threaten to kill his entire family. He would surely never try to attack and the Tyrells would have nothing to win anylonger so they would walk back home.

I would be king and have an excellent position from which to reunite the seven kingdoms.

What do you think guys could he have done it?

 

OK, I know that this is a hypothetical situation, but IMO Melisandre had foreseen the outcome of the battle in her "fires" and agreed to stay away from the battle to make it seem that her absence is what caused Stannis's defeat. She knew what the outcome was and used the knowledge to cement her position with Stannis.

[JLE]

Yes, if he had been faster, Stannis could have taken King's Landing. And yes, then he would have been besieged in it by both Tywin and the Tyrells - with Joffrey and Cersei both dead, though I would think Tyrion would be more likely to be a hostage: Joffrey and Cersei are competitors for Stannis's throne, and therefore must die, whereas Tyrion is a plain Lannister, and thus more useful alive than dead - although not as a bargaining chip since Tywin wouldn't worry about the possibility of Tyrion being killed in the siege. Tywin, meanwhile, would crown Tommen outside the city. Varys and Littlefinger would hopefully be dead. So, sadly, would Sansa Stark, killed by Ilyn Payne before the city could fall, as Cersei arranged.

However, Stannis's taking of the city when it had only the goldcloaks to defend it, would not have been anywhere so easily replicated by Tywin and Mace when Stannis has 16k men, and also control of the sea so Tywin could not starve the city out (Stannis's navy, even when not operating a direct blockade, contributed to KL being unable to feed itself by sea when Renly and the Tyrells blockaded the land routes into the city: but Tywin has no navy, while Mace's navy, the Redwyne-led fleet, is around on the wrong side of Westeros to be of any use). King's Landing would end up the target of a protracted, long-term siege - a thing that Stannis has faced before under worse conditions.

As for Robb Stark? Even if his diplomatic overtures to Stannis had met with friendship instead of hostility, and even if he had not married Jeyne Westerling, he would not have been able to march south to assault or harass the Tyrell / Lannister siege camps (which would have been better defended than the camps outside Riverrun, so Robb is smart enough not to risk a frontal assault, but would have been able to harass their supply lines until the siege camps starved while Stannis supplied himself by sea - so the besiegers would have been more at risk of starvation than the besieged). With the hostility he had got from Stannis, he wouldn't even *want* to - instead he would let the enemies fight each other: With Joffrey and Cersei dead, and Jaime probably still imprisoned (and Sansa killed by Ser Ilyn Payne before the city fell to Stannis), and Arya missing presumed dead, there's no longer anything left to the south for Robb to fight for. In any case, the ironborn invasion of the North, and the fall of Winterfell, would force Robb to return home: and, along the way, Roose Bolton would have contrived some way to murder him, whether with or without Frey help, because Roose could not dare to risk Robb getting home and discovering that there might have been a survivor from the Sack of Winterfell who recognised Ramsay. So, even if Robb had never married Jeyne Westerling but had married a Frey girl on his way home (probably Roslin), the Red Wedding would still have happened, it's just that it would have been his own...

[GallowsKnight]

13 hours ago, Trigger Warning said:

 

GRRM seems to have a penchant for castles falling relatively easily but when speculating I'd rather assume that a castle does what it should do until GRRM says otherwise in specific circumstances. I'm not saying the castle couldn't fall quickly as it did in Robert's Rebellion but when speculating about stuff I think it's a safer bet to assume it wouldn't be captured so quickly, especially if a plan relies on that happening. 

I mean, I don't see any reason from its descriptions in the book as to why it should be easy to capture, if anything it seems a formidable stronghold. 

The problem is what do you compare with? Our world realism. Or the in-universe case-series where castles keep being taken easily.

I think GRRM should have had Jaime sabotage the Red Keep's drawbridge or something to explain his father's easy capture of the Red Keep. Perhaps compound his guilt about Rhaegar's children by making him even more responsible.

[littleRickon]

how to win Blackwater Bay:

1) give command to your best Captain, even if he doesn't have all his fingers

2) ...?

3) profit

[Trigger Warning]

1 hour ago, GallowsKnight said:

The problem is what do you compare with? Our world realism. Or the in-universe case-series where castles keep being taken easily.

I think GRRM should have had Jaime sabotage the Red Keep's drawbridge or something to explain his father's easy capture of the Red Keep. Perhaps compound his guilt about Rhaegar's children by making him even more responsible.

 

That's the issue really but in general I'd tend to assume real life things should work like real life unless GRRM writes a scenario where a castle falls in another way because if castles fall so easily in general why do they exist in the first place. I can't see any reasonable reason why it would be easier for men in ASOIAF to storm fortifications that are greater than the ones we have in our own history. 

Sure GRRM has written quite a few scenarios where castles are taken quickly and easily but I think it would be wrong when speculating to assume all castles will fall quickly because... reasons.  

[devilish]

18 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

Except as I mentioned the Crownlands bannermen weren't really loyal to Joffrey. I mean, of the dozen or so house's only two of them sent any men to aid King's Landing. Now there's no reason to believe they'd be any more loyal to Stannis, but odds are they'd bend the knee and they would probably hand Tommen over. With Rosby so close to KL, they could easily do this before Tywin got anywhere near them.

And while Tywin might be willing to sacrifice any of his children or grandchildren to secure victory in the war, would he be willing to let his entire line die out. As you said he's all about legacy. If his two sons, daughter and two grandsons (and he has no reason to believe his granddaughter will be any safer) are all dead, then what legacy does he have.

Furthermore, with Joffrey and Tommen both dead then what motivation does the Reach have for siding with the Lannisters beyond revenge. That might be enough for Loras, but the deal for the Tyrell's joining the Lannisters was to have their daughter become queen. An impossibility if all the male royals are dead. So while the Reach may not join Stannis, I find it hard to believe they'd stick around with Tywin.

And then, with just the Lannister forces left, Tywin could not have taken the city back. His host numbered less than 20,000. Stannis' (pre-Blackwater) had 21,000. Losses in the Blackwater not caused by the relief force numbered at several thousand. Therefore, their armies in this scenario would be about equal strength, with Stannis holding the defensive position and having more morale.

You do realise that Rosby is located pretty far from KL don't you and that it was the city of choice by both Tyrion and Cersei to send Tommen to. Considering how they much they hate one another, then we can conclude that if both Lannisters believe its safe, then it probably is.

So lets imagine the scenario. Tommen is safe at Rosby, Stannis is holed in KL, surrounded by Tyrell and Lannister forces and what do the people of Rosby do? They put Tommen in a nice package, they pass him through Tyrell-Lannister lines and they deliver him to Stannis. That despite Stannis is sour, he thinks that all the world owe him because he's now king, he's surrounded by superior forces and the boy happens to be the grandson of the richest and most vindictive Lord in all Westeros and the future husband of a girl who happens to come from the second richest family in all Westeros. Who needs a grateful king when you can swap that with the anger of two of the most powerful and richest houses in all Westeros? 

 

 

[devilish]

14 hours ago, JLE said:

Yes, if he had been faster, Stannis could have taken King's Landing. And yes, then he would have been besieged in it by both Tywin and the Tyrells - with Joffrey and Cersei both dead, though I would think Tyrion would be more likely to be a hostage: Joffrey and Cersei are competitors for Stannis's throne, and therefore must die, whereas Tyrion is a plain Lannister, and thus more useful alive than dead - although not as a bargaining chip since Tywin wouldn't worry about the possibility of Tyrion being killed in the siege. Tywin, meanwhile, would crown Tommen outside the city. Varys and Littlefinger would hopefully be dead. So, sadly, would Sansa Stark, killed by Ilyn Payne before the city could fall, as Cersei arranged.

However, Stannis's taking of the city when it had only the goldcloaks to defend it, would not have been anywhere so easily replicated by Tywin and Mace when Stannis has 16k men, and also control of the sea so Tywin could not starve the city out (Stannis's navy, even when not operating a direct blockade, contributed to KL being unable to feed itself by sea when Renly and the Tyrells blockaded the land routes into the city: but Tywin has no navy, while Mace's navy, the Redwyne-led fleet, is around on the wrong side of Westeros to be of any use). King's Landing would end up the target of a protracted, long-term siege - a thing that Stannis has faced before under worse conditions.

As for Robb Stark? Even if his diplomatic overtures to Stannis had met with friendship instead of hostility, and even if he had not married Jeyne Westerling, he would not have been able to march south to assault or harass the Tyrell / Lannister siege camps (which would have been better defended than the camps outside Riverrun, so Robb is smart enough not to risk a frontal assault, but would have been able to harass their supply lines until the siege camps starved while Stannis supplied himself by sea - so the besiegers would have been more at risk of starvation than the besieged). With the hostility he had got from Stannis, he wouldn't even *want* to - instead he would let the enemies fight each other: With Joffrey and Cersei dead, and Jaime probably still imprisoned (and Sansa killed by Ser Ilyn Payne before the city fell to Stannis), and Arya missing presumed dead, there's no longer anything left to the south for Robb to fight for. In any case, the ironborn invasion of the North, and the fall of Winterfell, would force Robb to return home: and, along the way, Roose Bolton would have contrived some way to murder him, whether with or without Frey help, because Roose could not dare to risk Robb getting home and discovering that there might have been a survivor from the Sack of Winterfell who recognised Ramsay. So, even if Robb had never married Jeyne Westerling but had married a Frey girl on his way home (probably Roslin), the Red Wedding would still have happened, it's just that it would have been his own...

So you think that the same man who didn't really negotiated to have his golden boy from the wolves will end up negotiating to have the imp he hates so much back? I much doubt it. Tywin would probably love it if Stannis ends up getting rid of that problem on his behalf. Tommen will be king and he would then force the boy to release Jamie from KG, making him his heir.

Also don't forget that a breached KL is not Storm's end and by the time of Stannis invasion, Robb's future was probably already sealed. The Young honourable wolf would still go to the twins to settle the score with Walder Frey and Roose was probably already in Tywin's pockets by then.  

 

 

 

 

[Adam Yozza]

33 minutes ago, devilish said:

You do realise that Rosby is located pretty far from KL don't you and that it was the city of choice by both Tyrion and Cersei to send Tommen to. Considering how they much they hate one another, then we can conclude that if both Lannisters believe its safe, then it probably is.

So lets imagine the scenario. Tommen is safe at Rosby, Stannis is holed in KL, surrounded by Tyrell and Lannister forces and what do the people of Rosby do? They put Tommen in a nice package, they pass him through Tyrell-Lannister lines and they deliver him to Stannis. That despite Stannis is sour, he thinks that all the world owe him because he's now king, he's surrounded by superior forces and the boy happens to be the grandson of the richest and most vindictive Lord in all Westeros and the future husband of a girl who happens to come from the second richest family in all Westeros. Who needs a grateful king when you can swap that with the anger of two of the most powerful and richest houses in all Westeros? 

 

 

You completely ignored tha fact that Stannis would likely not be surrounded by the Tyrell-Lannister force. He would probably be besieged only by the Lannister host.

Rosby is a hell of a lot closer to KL than Harrenhal is, not to mention the Red Fork. Besides, from the wiki : "Rosby sits just northeast of King's Landing" Rosby is actually the closest major crownlands house to the capital. If Stannis had attacked the city, maybe two weeks earlier or even a whole month then yes Tommen gets handed over. The Rosby's have no incentive not to.

I'm not arguing that Rosby is not a safe place. That it would be able to hold back a siege if needed. I do think, however, that Tyrion and Cersei are probably underestimating how much disloyalty the Crownlands house's have towards them.

[Runaway Penguin]

All the easy falling castles are understaffed or demoralized. However so would be Red Keep in case of Stannis getting into the city. Do not forget tyrion stripped a lot of garrison to weaken Cersei. She even acknowledged that they may hold out in Maegor's for some time - pointing to losing the rest quickly.

[Trigger Warning]

9 minutes ago, Runaway Penguin said:

All the easy falling castles are understaffed or demoralized. However so would be Red Keep in case of Stannis getting into the city. Do not forget tyrion stripped a lot of garrison to weaken Cersei. She even acknowledged that they may hold out in Maegor's for some time - pointing to losing the rest quickly.

 

Just as  quick example off the top of my head Sterling castle held out for 4 months against Edward I and all his siege engines with a garrison of 30 men because it was a strong castle, as is the Red Keep. Storming the walls is such a bloody business that it's often the absolute last resort. 

Castles by their very nature do not require large garrisons and considering the actual size of the city garrison which was somewhere in the region of 8,000 it's not unreasonable to assume a few hundred withdrew to the citadel or were placed there to begin with. 

Not to mention Stannis army would have to choose between plunder and throwing themselves at the remaining foes that are hold up in a castle and not currently a threat to them, we don't assume castles that are outside of cities will fall quickly so I don't see why people see the Red Keep this way. 


 

[Adam Yozza]

4 hours ago, devilish said:

Also don't forget that a breached KL is not Storm's end and by the time of Stannis invasion, Robb's future was probably already sealed. The Young honourable wolf would still go to the twins to settle the score with Walder Frey and Roose was probably already in Tywin's pockets by then.  

And no, Bolton didn't sign up with the Lannister's until Tywin had won on the Blackwater. No Lannister victory= no Bolton defection. Read Clash, Roose goes hunting for wolves in the last Arya chapter which takes place AFTER Blackwater. The wolves are symbolic of his betrayal.

[Runaway Penguin]

@TriggerWarning

Gold cloaks were melting away, sellswords would too, city population would if anything not offer much resistance at worst, would join in at best. While Stirling castle resisted siege, say Badajoz castle fell to escalade in much similar situation and so did one of Badajoz bastions. Not to mention the four ladder escalade at Ahmednuggur or one ladder escalade at Gawilghur. And that was against strong and at least initially fairly determined garrisons - which however focused (at least in the case of Badajoz and Gawilghur) on defending against main assault. 
Stirling castle was not really assaulted from what I read - just besieged and bombarded. The garrison of 30 would be hard pressed to repel an assault on one place, let alone on several. After all... Stirling was besieged after the end of Wallace's uprising, as a last outpost and was not really wotrth the losses. There was no relief coming, so the English could just sit around and throw nasty things at it, with the garrison surrendering after further resistance was futile, for whatever reason - but even simple surrender (and the English sparing their lives) seems to sugegst there was no assault.

[Trigger Warning]

To be honest my point really throughout the entire thread is basically that the Red Keep very well may fall quickly but that I think it's quite silly to assume it will. A huge citadel in the middle of the capital of the entire continent deserves more respect than being an afterthought. 

Basically every thread about Stannis winning at the Blackwater barely mentions the Red Keep, like it's not even an obstacle. 

The point about Stirling is that it resisted the bombardment, Stannis had no siege engines and bringing up scaling equipment through the city and up Aegon's high hill will be no easy task. We could also talk about the Siege of Caerlaverock in the Sottish Wars of independence as well, 60 men threw back the entire English army multiple times, granted it was against 3,000 or so men but they had siege engines. Sure, castles can fall quickly in some cases but the general assumption about a castle should not be that it will fall quickly. 

The point about the city is less that they will resist and more that Stannis ca expect to lose control of a significant portion of his army in the aftermath of the city walls being breached. 

Basically to sum up, my argument is not that the Red Keep could not fall quickly but that it should not be expected to or overlooked completely when speculating about Stannis capturing the city, that's it. We have far more examples in history of castles surrendering under siege or completely turning away forces than we do of them being captured quickly and easily through storm. 

It's just a strange assumption. 


 

[Protagoras]

It is not impossible, but even if Stannis had a better tactic and could redo the invasion, we are talking 21.000 soldiers (many of the dead or wounded from the battles with the garrison) vs a fresh relief force of 65.000 as well as a large garrison. And as it have been pointed out - even if Stannis takes the walls doesn´t mean that he win. Even if he captures Joffrey, Cersei and Tyrion doesn´t mean that he win. Holding Cersei, Tyrion and Joffrey is most certainly not "having Tywin by the balls". I mean, look how much holding Jaime helped Robb.

But lets somehow assumes he flawlessly takes King´s landing, including the Red Keep. Well, as pointed out - Stannis' men are now in a starving city he need to hold, he need to cover all exits and fast before the soldiers arrive. Tommen is also safe, which mean the Lannister-Tyrell alliance won´t fall apart and Tywin is certainly cold-hearted enough to sacrifice his children if he must (as long as he can take vengeance of course). This mean that they need to storm the city quick, which will give them heavy losses and become a besieged force in need of basic foodstuff - which has been a huge rarity. Doing this with Storms end (small place, had food to begin with, loyalty to the Baratheons) are not comparable to do this with King´s landing (huge place, lack of food in the first place, no loyalty - even some disloyalty vs their rulers, doesn´t want another sack like last time).

However, Stannis will in such a scenario have unexpected help from Robb and it is possible that Robb can assist Stannis in driving the Lannister-Tyrells away or at least force them to leave the city. He might even be able to feed his troops (especially with help from Melisandre). But he won´t be able to expand further than the Stormlands and the Crownlands, making his "kingdom" very small and if he allies with Robb against Tywin he might submit them, but will have to voluntarely give up 50% of the realm permanently to a usurper and "fellow" king. I can´t see Stannis accepting the concessions he need to do to have a theoretical chance winning this.