Could Stannis have won at the battle of Blackwater?

[Coolbeard the Exile]

Could Stannis have won at the battle of blackwater especially if Melissandre was with him? I believe he could and i will tell you why.

If Melissandre was with him she would be able to see her death and fire and she would be able to warn Stannis. If i was Stannis i would therfore give special instructions to Ser Imry that he should send scouts to probe the Lannisters and inspect the winch towers. I would have knights capture both winch towers before commencing the main battle preventing the Lannisters from raising the chain. 

I would also send a couple of thousand knights acros blackwater bay to attack the Iron Gate. The Lannisters would have little time to react to this and they would be both suprised and overstretched. They might even be able to capture the gate so fast it would be undefended. 

I would then send in the war galleys of the lords of the Narrow Sea, Lyseni galleys and Myrish sellsails to engage the Lannister fleet keeping the more Valuable and loyal royal war galleys in reserve. The sailing ships would be ferrying a couple of thousand knights acros to the Iron gate and then return to ferry the rest of the army across the blackwater rush after the sea battle has been won.

The first men across the blackwater bay would be knights. It might be wiser to send expendable sellswords in first but i think they would route when the wildfire gets unleashed. The infantry would come behind and form a shieldwall to the west stretching the landgap between King's landing and the blackwater rush to protect the knights against the enemy relief force.

I would have half of knights in in reserve in good order south of the blackwater rush to countercharge any enemy relief forces. If the walls fall quickly they would hurry inside the city but if it drags on they would stay south of the blackwater bay and retreat back and cross the blackwater bay when it is safe and go into the city via the Iron gate.

The 13,000 soldiers across blackwater gate would hurry to capture hostages in the red keep and close the gates behind them and man the walls against the Tyrell and Lannister relief force. I would have Tywin by the balls and threaten to kill his entire family. He would surely never try to attack and the Tyrells would have nothing to win anylonger so they would walk back home.

I would be king and have an excellent position from which to reunite the seven kingdoms.

What do you think guys could he have done it?

 

[StarkofWinterfell]

Neat man. Thoughtful post. Really original!

[Coolbeard the Exile]

26 minutes ago, StarkofWinterfell said:

Neat man. Thoughtful post. Really original!

I feel like you are a very salty individual who just goes around on this forum all day telling people their posts sucks.

[GallowsKnight]

Yes. I think especially if he moved quicker after Renly's death. He spent 2w eeks waiting around Storm's End and then was delayed by Storms for 2 weeks with the fleet. I imagine there might still have been storms and some delays organising an army. But it's possible he could have had a month head start.

I would have not wasted an animated shadow on Cortnay Penrose. Rather accept his challenge of combat and pick the beast killer in my army to fight him (Bryce Caron, Rolland Storm, Richard Horpe, whoever is the best). Cortnay Penrose is an older man and I think Davos is correct in assessing he wants a way to surrender/die with dignity. If we lose we could use the shadow overnight. Call it's R'Hollers divine justice or something. But I don't think that's a problem.

I would have kept Melissandre on the leading ship into the Blackwater. Probably have Lord Velaryon command the Navy. I don't think Imry did much wrong and I think Davos isn't as smart about naval battles as the fandom thinks. But Velaryon is likely an experienced Naval Commander and has been loyal from the start.

Melisandre is good at predicting threats to her own health. So putting her at the tip of the spear proverbially is a good plan that she might avoid that danger. I don't think sending the pirates first is a good idea. Their ships are smaller than the Royal Navy and there's still a good number of ships that might be able to defeat them. And if they started to withdraw that would confused the entire battle.

The rest is pretty straight forward. Stannis was winning afterall despite the Wildfire and chain. No surprise arrival of the Tyrells and Lannister. I take the city. Secure Sansa Stark for the North. Execute Cersei. Keep Joffrey prisoner so the Lannisters or Martells can't crown Tommen or Myrcella. Have the Hobber/Slobber to leverage old Paxter Redwyne.

There's time for my men to rest and recover. Repair gates and build further fortifications. The Lannister/Tyrells either arrive and I call a parley and then have the remaining Shadow kill Mace and Tywin before I arrive. Use the chaos to seize control of Reachmen and Stormlords in their force and crush or bring the Westerlands men to heel. Before negotiating with Robb.

Or if the Tyrells decide not to join the Lannister and Tywin stays in Harrenhal, I send Joffrey and the Twins to Dragonstone, leave a garrison in Kingslanding and march into the Riverlands to confront Tywin, while relieving the Riverlords and seeking Robb's fealty through negiotiation. Using Sansa as a bargaining chip.

And...I'm writing fan fiction again.

[Trigger Warning]

The issue is capturing the walls =/= capturing the citadel. 

Every single Stannis Blackwater victory thread assumes that the Red Keep will fall quickly. It's a formidable fortress by itself. 

If it doesn't fall you have a siege of Antioch on your hands but I doubt the Lannister/Tyrell alliance would fall apart as Kerbogha's relief army did. Basically even if the army is across the river and capturing the city you still have a huge relief army arriving on the same day, with the reserves/stragglers, camp and baggage train probably being annihilated, Stannis' men are now in a city and a starving city at that facing the prospect of a siege, I really don't think Stannis' new men give enough of a shit about him to put up with that, they'll probably turn on him. 

Furthermore Tommen is safe at Rosby regardless, the Tyrells have an interest in denying Stannis the throne and Tywin's not going to let Stannis threaten to kill his family (if he can even capture the citadel) because Stannis' is likely going to kill them regardless, Tyrion notes that he basically gives Jaime up for dead as soon as he's captured, Tywin might try to secure their safety but he's not going to pack up and go home to lick his wounds because Stannis' threatens to kill them. He'll simply besiege the city. They have no food, nowhere to source food even with their fleet and a populace that was likely just brutalised by near 20,000 soldiers tear arsing through it mid capture and they were on the edge of revolt as it was. 

Going for Kingslanding was stupid, but GRRM wanted a big battle siege of King's Landing to go down. 

To be honest I'd think Stannis would take his 16,000 men and begin campaigning in the Stormlands and Reach, capturing castles, supplies and gaining support, at the very least trying to deal with the monstrously huge army sitting at Bitterbridge other than sending some envoys. 

But that would be too realistic and boring. 

[GallowsKnight]

1 hour ago, Trigger Warning said:

The issue is capturing the walls =/= capturing the citadel. 

Every single Stannis Blackwater victory thread assumes that the Red Keep will fall quickly. It's a formidable fortress by itself. 

If it doesn't fall you have a siege of Antioch on your hands but I doubt the Lannister/Tyrell alliance would fall apart as Kerbogha's relief army did. Basically even if the army is across the river and capturing the city you still have a huge relief army arriving on the same day, with the reserves/stragglers, camp and baggage train probably being annihilated, Stannis' men are now in a city and a starving city at that facing the prospect of a siege, I really don't think Stannis' new men give enough of a shit about him to put up with that, they'll probably turn on him. 

Furthermore Tommen is safe at Rosby regardless, the Tyrells have an interest in denying Stannis the throne and Tywin's not going to let Stannis threaten to kill his family (if he can even capture the citadel) because Stannis' is likely going to kill them regardless, Tyrion notes that he basically gives Jaime up for dead as soon as he's captured, Tywin might try to secure their safety but he's not going to pack up and go home to lick his wounds because Stannis' threatens to kill them. He'll simply besiege the city. They have no food, nowhere to source food even with their fleet and a populace that was likely just brutalised by near 20,000 soldiers tear arsing through it mid capture and they were on the edge of revolt as it was. 

Going for Kingslanding was stupid, but GRRM wanted a big battle siege of King's Landing to go down. 

To be honest I'd think Stannis would take his 16,000 men and begin campaigning in the Stormlands and Reach, capturing castles, supplies and gaining support, at the very least trying to deal with the monstrously huge army sitting at Bitterbridge other than sending some envoys. 

But that would be too realistic and boring. 

Good points. It's why I suggest above Stannis should have left the early. The timing of the Blackwater battle is one of those things I really have to suspend my disbelief for because as you say GRRM wanted this particular siege to go down.

The only thing I have with the strength of the Red Keep is that Tywin seems to have managed to take it in a day during the sack of Kingslanding with 12,000 men while it was defended by "several thousand loyalists". I don't think it was guile either. He started sacking as soon as the gates of Kingslanding were open to him. 

And once the Red Keep was breached Maegor's holdfast was able to be scaled by Lorch and Clegane.

[Lion of the West]

6 hours ago, Knight of valour said:

Could Stannis have won at the battle of blackwater especially if Melissandre was with him? I believe he could and i will tell you why.

If Melissandre was with him she would be able to see her death and fire and she would be able to warn Stannis. If i was Stannis i would therfore give special instructions to Ser Imry that he should send scouts to probe the Lannisters and inspect the winch towers. I would have knights capture both winch towers before commencing the main battle preventing the Lannisters from raising the chain. 

I would also send a couple of thousand knights acros blackwater bay to attack the Iron Gate. The Lannisters would have little time to react to this and they would be both suprised and overstretched. They might even be able to capture the gate so fast it would be undefended. 

I would then send in the war galleys of the lords of the Narrow Sea, Lyseni galleys and Myrish sellsails to engage the Lannister fleet keeping the more Valuable and loyal royal war galleys in reserve. The sailing ships would be ferrying a couple of thousand knights acros to the Iron gate and then return to ferry the rest of the army across the blackwater rush after the sea battle has been won.

The first men across the blackwater bay would be knights. It might be wiser to send expendable sellswords in first but i think they would route when the wildfire gets unleashed. The infantry would come behind and form a shieldwall to the west stretching the landgap between King's landing and the blackwater rush to protect the knights against the enemy relief force.

I would have half of knights in in reserve in good order south of the blackwater rush to countercharge any enemy relief forces. If the walls fall quickly they would hurry inside the city but if it drags on they would stay south of the blackwater bay and retreat back and cross the blackwater bay when it is safe and go into the city via the Iron gate.

The 13,000 soldiers across blackwater gate would hurry to capture hostages in the red keep and close the gates behind them and man the walls against the Tyrell and Lannister relief force. I would have Tywin by the balls and threaten to kill his entire family. He would surely never try to attack and the Tyrells would have nothing to win anylonger so they would walk back home.

I would be king and have an excellent position from which to reunite the seven kingdoms.

What do you think guys could he have done it?

 

I'd say that your plan has some good parts but also some flaws, and I think there's an underestimation of Tywin's resolve and the Tyrells' enemity to Stannis.

In regards to the plan, the parts that I like about is the more active use of the navy to spread out the defenders and prevent them from easily focusing on a single point, as well as taking the out the winch towers which should have been done by the army's scouts pretty much as soon as it arrives.

The big problem I see with the plan is that it kind of assumes that the defenders will just sitt passively and do nothing. As well as that Stannis will hurt his creditentals by having Melisandre with him, as I imagine he himself states. Stannis needs to win this victory to show his men that he is the guy in charge, and that Melisandre is not the woman in charge. 

For the force that's to go north and capture the Iron Gate, it will be seen as their ships comes sailing, and the defenders will have ample of time to close the gate while these men disembark. Thus if these men are to make any difference they must either construct siege equipment or bring it with them, both of which will take time and that's time that the defenders don't have to worry about an attack from the south since the troop transports would be occupied this with this operation. Not to mention that when the men starts to disembark they would be vulnerable to counter-attacks, such as being done by Sandor Clegane south of the Blackwater. Most likely the landing will be successful, but it will be bloodied and take more time to get everything organized for an actual assault on the gate, with the risk of these men attacking ahead of the strike from the south which would allow King Joffrey's men to mobilize to counter each thread in turn.

The same story would be true in regards to the southern crossing. The attack could then actually take more time than it did for Stannis; first everything needs to reach King's Landning, then the ships will ferry several thousand of men and equipment north to the Iron Gate and these men must then get ready to attack the city, while the fleet returns south.

Then after this they will fight the king's navy, provided the king's navy sat still and idle while Stannis' navy ferried troops to the north, and then the two navies will fight each other, and then the navy can start to ferry men across the Blackwater along with siege equipment.

But a big glaring flaw in the planning is to leave thousands of men south of the Blackwater to get ready for a counter-attack. How? There's no ford that we know of and these men will have the Blackwater between themselves and attacking a relief force. Better to state that these men will guard the baggage train instead since that would be possible to do. 

After all this, the proper attack would be ready to begin. I must confess that I don't see this happening in a single day. Effectively giving Tywin and Mace more time to come south break the siege. If everything goes well the final attack should work wonders. But to get there Stannis will spend valuable time setting everything up to be perfect, while the enemy comes marching down on him. 

And then comes the problem of the aftermath in which I don't think that either Tywin or the Tyrells will back down. But this post is about the battle so I'll leave it at that.

[Coolbeard the Exile]

Lionofthewest

It is not that wide across to the Iron Gate and i recon that they will be able to catch the Iron Gate unawares.

The warships would engage the Lannister ships straight away and by the time the sailing ships have feried a couple of thousand knights to the Iron Gate they will turn back to the blackwater rush straight away and be able to ferry the troops south over the blackwater rush when the enemy fleet is destroyed.

Well the Lannister/Tyrell relief force did attack the troops south of the blackwater from the west aswell as to the north so that is why i would keep so many knights ready to engage the relief force.

In the sack of King's Landing the Lannisters were able to take the city very quickly aswell as killing the Royal Family entrenched in Maegors Holdfast.

[The Sleeper]

7 hours ago, Trigger Warning said:

The issue is capturing the walls =/= capturing the citadel. 

Every single Stannis Blackwater victory thread assumes that the Red Keep will fall quickly. It's a formidable fortress by itself. 

If it doesn't fall you have a siege of Antioch on your hands but I doubt the Lannister/Tyrell alliance would fall apart as Kerbogha's relief army did. Basically even if the army is across the river and capturing the city you still have a huge relief army arriving on the same day, with the reserves/stragglers, camp and baggage train probably being annihilated, Stannis' men are now in a city and a starving city at that facing the prospect of a siege, I really don't think Stannis' new men give enough of a shit about him to put up with that, they'll probably turn on him. 

Furthermore Tommen is safe at Rosby regardless, the Tyrells have an interest in denying Stannis the throne and Tywin's not going to let Stannis threaten to kill his family (if he can even capture the citadel) because Stannis' is likely going to kill them regardless, Tyrion notes that he basically gives Jaime up for dead as soon as he's captured, Tywin might try to secure their safety but he's not going to pack up and go home to lick his wounds because Stannis' threatens to kill them. He'll simply besiege the city. They have no food, nowhere to source food even with their fleet and a populace that was likely just brutalised by near 20,000 soldiers tear arsing through it mid capture and they were on the edge of revolt as it was. 

Going for Kingslanding was stupid, but GRRM wanted a big battle siege of King's Landing to go down. 

To be honest I'd think Stannis would take his 16,000 men and begin campaigning in the Stormlands and Reach, capturing castles, supplies and gaining support, at the very least trying to deal with the monstrously huge army sitting at Bitterbridge other than sending some envoys. 

But that would be too realistic and boring. 

Generally speaking most of the commanders in the series appear to go for the political effect rather than the most destruction and securing more resources. As so much appear to hinge on reputation, prestige and the ability to hold one's army together, I'm not entirely sure that they are wrong. As such taking the capital and the Iron Throne would make him from a claimant to the holder of the throne in many people's eyes. A different person would offer terms to the Tyrells. As Mace and Margaery are traitors and rebels by definition he would have been forced to fight them and the Reach outnumber him three to one.

Let's face it Stannis would never have been able to solidify a reign. He makes enemies far too easily.

[Lion of the West]

2 hours ago, Knight of valour said:

Lionofthewest

It is not that wide across to the Iron Gate and i recon that they will be able to catch the Iron Gate unawares.

The warships would engage the Lannister ships straight away and by the time the sailing ships have feried a couple of thousand knights to the Iron Gate they will turn back to the blackwater rush straight away and be able to ferry the troops south over the blackwater rush when the enemy fleet is destroyed.

 

Ok, but that's not what you wrote and I can only remark on what you put on the page. But I thank you for this clarification.

2 hours ago, Knight of valour said:

Well the Lannister/Tyrell relief force did attack the troops south of the blackwater from the west aswell as to the north so that is why i would keep so many knights ready to engage the relief force.

In the sack of King's Landing the Lannisters were able to take the city very quickly aswell as killing the Royal Family entrenched in Maegors Holdfast.

The point I get from that the Lannister-Tyrell army attacked south was because there were enemies there who could retreat to the south, and to prevent an retreat over the Blackwater. Now keeping the retreat option open and protect the baggage train would make good sense, but that would be these men's task, and if Stannis has captured the city, the risk is that these men could actually sitt around doing nothing while Tywin and Mace goes to town, so to speak.

Also I don't think that the Sack will be repeated here. The Sack was a very difficult undertaking and to my knowledge a rather significant accomplishment. Not to mention that Aerys didn't have Illyn Payne ready to cut off heads if it turned to the worse.

[Runaway Penguin]

If the chain/wildfire did not work (which it might not if the attack was earlier), the relief army cannot get across the river easily, they would have to go the long way, ford Blackwater upstream and. In the city itself you would have Alesia situation - Red Keep besieged, with besieging forces having a line of fortifications (city walls) protecting them from the outside. That alone might give Tyrells a pause and Tywin would be in a rather tricky position.

There was not that much forces left in KL once the Goldcloaks would eventually break.And if the city populance would join in - which they might - there might be no sack. Sacks of cities (unless deliberate) usually happened when troops got out of control after a bloody assault, but if the city fell quickly...

[Adam Yozza]

I agree with GallowsKnight here. The timing of the battle is what cost him. Tywin got to King's Landing on the same day as the battle. If Stannis had attacked a day earlier the city would have fallen. If he'd attacked a week earlier he'd almost definitely have both the city and the keep by the time Tywin arrived. @Trigger WarningThe crownlands would probably have bent the knee immediately after the battle so Tommen would likely be given over to Stannis. With both grandsons and his daughter hostage, Tywin might be convinced to surrender, though it is unlikely.

But think more long term than that. With KL in Stannis' hands the Lannisters are no longer in a position of major power. It was Stannis' loss that led to Roose betraying Robb. No Lannister victory at Blackwater= no Bolton betrayal. And then you have a very different story.

[The Sleeper]

Come to think of it, Stannis' best option would have been to accede to Renly, join his navy to Renly's army and shadowbaby him after they had taken King's Landing and then blaim it on the Lannisters or whoever was left to oppose him. But this is what comes out of dealing with prophesies.

[Runaway Penguin]

Less prophecies and more legal procedures  Stannis did not fight because of the prophecy, he fought because he thought he is the legitimate heir to Robert with the kids being an issue of twincest.

He needed to dally with renly to get bigger land army, but he should have ignored the Storm's End until later - though the castle held the "proof" of Twincest (Edric Storm).

[The Sleeper]

Well, his goal had and has been to ascend to the throne. This would get him that and after all he did assassinate his brother through magical means.

He trusted the prophesy that it would give him the better part of Renly's forces. It did that. Did he wonder how this was supposed to play out? A better understanding of the resources at his disposal and a bit of subterfuge could get him what he wanted. It wouldn't have been the first time he has compromised in the face of his greater "duty".

[FearlessBoggart]

I feel that @Adam Yozza 's and @GallowsKnight idea is probably the best way for Stannis to go: just attack a little bit sooner and the whole story changes. Not only would Bolton not betray Robb, the Freys wouldn't betray Robb. And Vargo Hoat would have been happy.

Or @The Sleeper 's solution. I myself had that same thought when I first read the book. Stannis could gave just gave in at the parley, and then murdered Renly in KL.

PS: @The Sleeper: Do you read Wild Cards?

[devilish]

The dance of the dragons clearly showed that a royalty can lose the war despite capturing KL. By capturing KL, Stannis would have still lost the crown. The combined Tyrell-Lannister forces would still wipe him out.

Actually Stannis would have done the Lannisters a favour. Tywin would have gotten rid of Cersei, Joffrey and Tyrion at one go and he would have got the regency over Tommen whose a young, good, and easily controlled boy. 

[The Sleeper]

@FearlessBoggart Did the name give me away?

[devilish]

19 hours ago, Knight of valour said:

Could Stannis have won at the battle of blackwater especially if Melissandre was with him? I believe he could and i will tell you why.

If Melissandre was with him she would be able to see her death and fire and she would be able to warn Stannis. If i was Stannis i would therfore give special instructions to Ser Imry that he should send scouts to probe the Lannisters and inspect the winch towers. I would have knights capture both winch towers before commencing the main battle preventing the Lannisters from raising the chain. 

I would also send a couple of thousand knights acros blackwater bay to attack the Iron Gate. The Lannisters would have little time to react to this and they would be both suprised and overstretched. They might even be able to capture the gate so fast it would be undefended. 

I would then send in the war galleys of the lords of the Narrow Sea, Lyseni galleys and Myrish sellsails to engage the Lannister fleet keeping the more Valuable and loyal royal war galleys in reserve. The sailing ships would be ferrying a couple of thousand knights acros to the Iron gate and then return to ferry the rest of the army across the blackwater rush after the sea battle has been won.

The first men across the blackwater bay would be knights. It might be wiser to send expendable sellswords in first but i think they would route when the wildfire gets unleashed. The infantry would come behind and form a shieldwall to the west stretching the landgap between King's landing and the blackwater rush to protect the knights against the enemy relief force.

I would have half of knights in in reserve in good order south of the blackwater rush to countercharge any enemy relief forces. If the walls fall quickly they would hurry inside the city but if it drags on they would stay south of the blackwater bay and retreat back and cross the blackwater bay when it is safe and go into the city via the Iron gate.

The 13,000 soldiers across blackwater gate would hurry to capture hostages in the red keep and close the gates behind them and man the walls against the Tyrell and Lannister relief force. I would have Tywin by the balls and threaten to kill his entire family. He would surely never try to attack and the Tyrells would have nothing to win anylonger so they would walk back home.

I would be king and have an excellent position from which to reunite the seven kingdoms.

What do you think guys could he have done it?

 

Those tricks do not work with Tywin. When Stafford Lannister (Tywin's cousin and brother to Tywin's future wife) was taken hostage by Lady Tarbeck, Tywin suggested to send Lord Tarbeck in three pieces. Tywin didn't negotiate on Tyrion's behalf when the Tullys took him and Robb spent most of his campaign carrying Jaime around because Tywin didn't flinched. Even Aerys who was as mad as a horse, knew not to play these games with Tywin. He blackmailed the Martells to war but not the Lannisters. 

Also the war was not over. Mycella and Tommen were still alive

If Stannis made a bloodshed, then the reputation of the last rightful King would be in tatters + Tywin would get rid of 3 of his most troublesome relatives (Cersei, Joffrey and Tyrion). The Tyrells would marry Margaery to Tommen (or Willas to Myrcella), Jaime would have no reason to remain KG and Tywin would be regent to a young and easily controlled kid

[Coolbeard the Exile]

Do you think Tywin would let his daughter, dwarf son but still a son and his shining perfect son, his grandson and for all he knows Tommen is in King's Landing aswell and his granddaughter could find herself in Dornish captivity. Do you think really that Tywin would sacrifise all of them? I don't think so at all. He would never accept that.