Aegon the Conqueror and Tywin Lannister

[Lion of the West]

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

That's not very believable based on your av, name and sig, but okay.

You may have noted that I didn't say that I was without emotional drive, I said that I was less driven than most are, that means that relative to them I am less emotional about he issue.

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

It was actually the only thing he could really do, not some extreme stroke of brilliance. The North, Vale, Riverlands, Stormlands + Tyrells, Martells, Dragonstone...every single kingdom was against him, and the only way they could hope to have some leverage over the others was to take hostages. Logically the next move after that would be to attack the Riverlands, because that's the region directly bordering the Westerlands, with the least natural defenses and the most incompetent leader. It was pretty much his only course of action after his trap for Ned failed. So I'd say good move, but not something special, and not something I couldn't see others in his position doing.

Actually, no. You are rushing ahead and making the situation that came after the Battle of the Green Fork to be the situation at the outbreak of the war. At the outbreak Tywin had no indication that Renly, Stannis, Doran and Mace would do just about anything at all in this conflict. You are essentially mixing up the timeline.

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

I'd attribute that more to the entire Reyne-Tarbeck thing than him personally keeping his army together, Stannis-style.

Well, the Blackfyres have so far proved more capable of keeping their forces together than Stannis. In fact a significant portion of Stannis' men turned sides during the Blackwater and now he only has like a tenth of the numbers that he had at the Blackwater. As far as I can see, Stannis men are the fanatical core of his supporters with all the moderates stripped away. It sure is a testament to that Stannis can keep thesem en fighting despite a hopeless situation, but let's not overstate how powerful Stannis' draw on his men is.

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Relates to my point above. The HH move actually backfired on him because he expected Robb to attack him there.

I agree. Robb was not an utter fool and Tywin can, like all other humans, make mistakes or see plans go in an unexpected direction. But even so Harrenhall and operating from it ensure that Tywin could keep himself and his army revelant to the development of the war.

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

And why should Tyrion's moves be credited to Tywin? In that case we should also credit Cersei's stupidity to Tywin because he's the one who really made her queen. 

Sure, we can attribute everything that the Lannisters did at Tywin's behest on him and he'll still come out more favorable than not.

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

This is not really a part of the Wot5K, but I agree. He was a skilled politician, that's pretty much his major talent.

I am happy we can agree that Tywin is a good politician.

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

In any case, let's look at the real decisive factors in the Wot5K:

I disagree mostly with this list. The major turns of the war are; Tyrion gets taken by Catelyn, Eddard gets executed, Renly dies and Blackwater, after that it was pretty much all mobbing up.

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

- Stannis killing Renly with a shadowbaby, thus freeing up the Tyrells - no Tywin work here

I agree, but the seeds are long established and a blow between the Baratheon brothers unavoidable

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

- Tyrion and LF getting the Tyrells on the Lannister's side -  no Tywin work

Tyrion and LF didn't get the Tyrells on the Lannister's side though, Stannis did that, and the Tyrells had already picked a side against Stannis when they killed or captured the men Stannis sent to bring Renly's foot to him.

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

-  Balon Greyjoy deciding to ignore the rich Westerlands to take the North (?!) -  no Tywin work here

Very easily. Balon wants to keep what he takes and thus fighting the Lannisters is not very profitable in the long run.

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

- Theon Greyjoy taking WInterfell and Robb losing his seat, precipitating Roose's betrayal - no Tywin

Not really. Losing Winterfell was a blow, but its clear that its the Blackwater that turns Roose to look for a way out.

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

- Theon "killing" Bran and Rickon which led to Catelyn releasing Jaime - huge plot gift again and no Tywin involvement

Considering that this "release" led to Jaime leaving his ersthwhile philosophy when he was lumbed together with Brienne, I'd say this is hardly a plot gift at all for Tywin.

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

- The Martells and Vale not joining in the game - huge plot gift, no Tywin involvement

Not a plot gift. Littlefinger's manipulations have both harmed and helped the Lannisters and the Martells are not interesting in creating a strong Baratheon rule, also well established.

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

-  Arya not naming Tywin, or any Lannister for that matter, in her three names list to Jaqen -  A TOTAL plot gift, no Tywin

No. It was by that time long established that Arya was impulsive and focused on her "now" and not someone else's tomorrow.

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

- Euron killing Balon - no Tywin

Why would Euron killed Tywin? Euron wanted to take the rule of the Iron Islands and killing Tywin will bring him no closer to that goal.

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

- Robb not telling Edmure his plans - no Tywin

Rather more in character for Robb in his horrible management of the war I'd say.

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

This is just off the top of my head, I suppose I could find more if I go on.

I am sure you could and I could give you a long list of everything that goes against Tywin in answer to it.

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

 

Where Tywin did have a hand -  possibly making Sybell Spicer feed Robb some love potions by way of unsuspecting Jeyne, leading to breaking his betrothal, and then executing the RW and skillfully letting Frey and Bolton take the blame. There was again a slight luck involved there because any house with half a brain would have balked at breaking guest right and making themselves so hated, but whatever.

So my point that there was 90% luck and 10% of Tywin's own effort in winning the Wot5K still stands. 

And I reject this notion and point to the part above. There are many times that Tywin had bad and horrible luck, given what I could see as your definition of luck above.

[Tini]

11 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

And I reject this notion and point to the part above. There are many times that Tywin had bad and horrible luck, given what I could see as your definition of luck above.

Yes, Tywin had bad and horrible luck. He was quite averse to taking riks - as his treatment of the Tarbecks and the Raines shows. He only joined Robert's rebellion when it was clear Robert was winning. And for that support he he expected a handsome reward, and got it, when Robert married Cersei. He always had his family's fortunes in mind.

He did not count on luck in his plans. He counted on superior numbers, he knew the weaknesses of opponents and allies alike, and exploited those. He had a keen instinct for the right moment.

He had a blind sport concerning his children, and that proved to be his downfall.

Tywin's animosity towards - and faulty assessment of - Tyrion directly led to his death by Tyrion's hands.

If Tywin had ever realized that his lucky twins were lovers, he would've separated them for good. If he had realized that his grandchildren were not Baratheons by blood, he would've been on the lookout for any challenges to their legitimacy. And he wouldn't have left witnesses as Cersei and Jaime did - those two were the ones who got saved by luck time and again.

[Lion of the West]

3 hours ago, Tini said:

Yes, Tywin had bad and horrible luck. He was quite averse to taking riks - as his treatment of the Tarbecks and the Raines shows. He only joined Robert's rebellion when it was clear Robert was winning. And for that support he he expected a handsome reward, and got it, when Robert married Cersei. He always had his family's fortunes in mind.

He did not count on luck in his plans. He counted on superior numbers, he knew the weaknesses of opponents and allies alike, and exploited those. He had a keen instinct for the right moment.

He had a blind sport concerning his children, and that proved to be his downfall.

Tywin's animosity towards - and faulty assessment of - Tyrion directly led to his death by Tyrion's hands.

If Tywin had ever realized that his lucky twins were lovers, he would've separated them for good. If he had realized that his grandchildren were not Baratheons by blood, he would've been on the lookout for any challenges to their legitimacy. And he wouldn't have left witnesses as Cersei and Jaime did - those two were the ones who got saved by luck time and again.

While I don't agree with every word. Thank you!

[Little Scribe of Naath]

19 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

ctually, no. You are rushing ahead and making the situation that came after the Battle of the Green Fork to be the situation at the outbreak of the war. At the outbreak Tywin had no indication that Renly, Stannis, Doran and Mace would do just about anything at all in this conflict. You are essentially mixing up the timeline.

Your original statement was: "It was a brilliant move by Tywin to knock the Riverlands out of the war. If Frey hadn't turned to Robb's side, they would have taken Riverrun."

Now, what part of the timeline does this refer to? 

Pre Robert's death and Ned's arrest, Tywin couldn't have "knocked the Riverlands out of the war." as nobody expected full scale war. His intent was to react strongly against the insult to House Lannister and take Ned hostage so that he could be exchanged for Tyrion and the hostilities could end. 

After Ned was arrested, Tywin launched his war on the Riverlands. Now at that time, Robb declared his intent to march South, the Vale's loyalties were unknown but could be reasonably assumed to be with House Stark, Stannis was on Dragonstone and no chance he'd ally with the West, Renly had fled the city and one can easily figure out that Storm's End and the Tyrells would be with him, Martells no hope of an alliance.

First of all, with GM Pycelle in Tywin's pocket, the idea that he didn't know what exactly was going in KL is nonsense. For sure, he'd have known about the incest and probably the reason for JA's death. With that knowledge, it's extremely easy for him to understand what Stannis would intend to do. At most, we can say Tywin would not have expected what Renly was going to do. But the most likely move for Renly would have been to support Stannis. Hardly any reason why Tywin should expect any support from him once war breaks out.

So, when Tywin launched his attack of the Riverlands, I'm pretty sure he knew full well what the situation was and which way things would likely swing. That's why he took the only course of action he could have taken,

19 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

Well, the Blackfyres have so far proved more capable of keeping their forces together than Stannis. In fact a significant portion of Stannis' men turned sides during the Blackwater and now he only has like a tenth of the numbers that he had at the Blackwater. As far as I can see, Stannis men are the fanatical core of his supporters with all the moderates stripped away. It sure is a testament to that Stannis can keep thesem en fighting despite a hopeless situation, but let's not overstate how powerful Stannis' draw on his men is.

But my point was that Tywin's reputation due to the Reyne-Tarbeck incident would have been the biggest reason why his forces didn't betray him, not due to some extreme talent on his side of keeping his forces together. 

19 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

I disagree mostly with this list. The major turns of the war are; Tyrion gets taken by Catelyn, Eddard gets executed, Renly dies and Blackwater, after that it was pretty much all mobbing up.

What?  This list consisted of all the contributing factors which led to the Lannisters' "winning" the Wot5K. The first two incidents you listed were the causes of the war, not turning points during the war.

19 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

Very easily. Balon wants to keep what he takes and thus fighting the Lannisters is not very profitable in the long run.

LOL. It was only the total stupidity of Balon that he thought he could hold the North in any way. Any reasonably smart IB King would have gone for the Westerlands.

19 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

Not really. Losing Winterfell was a blow, but its clear that its the Blackwater that turns Roose to look for a way out.

Roose himself mentions that he lost faith in Robb after Winterfell had fallen. 

19 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

Considering that this "release" led to Jaime leaving his ersthwhile philosophy when he was lumbed together with Brienne, I'd say this is hardly a plot gift at all for Tywin.

That's true actually - now that I recall, he had left Jaime for dead. 

19 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

Not a plot gift. Littlefinger's manipulations have both harmed and helped the Lannisters and the Martells are not interesting in creating a strong Baratheon rule, also well established.

Seriously? This is not about LF's manipulations. Can you imagine if the Vale and Dorne had entered the War against the Lannisters? It's not pure plot luck that two kingdoms - one with a huge beef against the Lannisters - stayed out of the War? The Vale joining Robb would have been game over for the Lannisters.

19 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

No. It was by that time long established that Arya was impulsive and focused on her "now" and not someone else's tomorrow.

Yeah, that's why she had a kill list with all her victims which she used to recite every night, but magically forgot about when she had to give the names.

It would have been unrealistic if all three were Lannister names.  But even if a single one of the names had been a Lannister, it would have turned the story.

 

19 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

Why would Euron killed Tywin? Euron wanted to take the rule of the Iron Islands and killing Tywin will bring him no closer to that goal.

Euron killed Balon,  thus removing another king from the board.

19 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

Rather more in character for Robb in his horrible management of the war I'd say.

Not at all, sorry. Pure plot luck there. There's very little reason why Robb should not have told him his plans.

19 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

I am sure you could and I could give you a long list of everything that goes against Tywin in answer to it.

LOL. No point, because you're anyways unwilling to admit to anything which might go against Tywin's supposed "brilliance" anyway.

Anyway, I see no point in taking this discussion forward, because clearly neither of us are finding the other's arguments convincing. Let's agree to disagree.

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

On 10/13/2016 at 9:52 PM, Jon's Queen Consort said:

That is a kind of personal attack and by definition isn’t cool. Also if you want to name Tywin a sociopath, which he isn’t since there is no sociopathy, then you have to do the same for a man who attacked innocent people with WMD.

Psychopathy (/saɪˈkɒpəθi/), sometimes also known as sociopathy(/soʊsiˈɒpəθi/), is traditionally defined as a personality disorder^[1] characterized by persistent antisocial behavior, impaired empathy and remorse, and bold, disinhibited, egotistical traits.

If you prefer the word psychopath, its fine by me, but sociopath is a word in the dictionary. I do not think Aegon was a psychopath though. Tywin shows signs of having no remorse for the suffering of others or death of others. Hiring the Brave Companions, knowing what Gregor Clegane does but being okay with it, his treatment of his family members (especially Tyrion), and especially the rape of Tysha...I find it hard to believe he cares much about anything except  himself, and Lannister legacy. Also, if it seemed a personal attack, I did not mean it to be. I just do not like when people defend behavior this extreme in fiction. As I said, I do not know what he gets out of it. In other words, I do not understand LionoftheWest's motivation to defend Tywin. I thought we were on the same side, so sorry if I offended you.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

11 minutes ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

Psychopathy (/saɪˈkɒpəθi/), sometimes also known as sociopathy(/soʊsiˈɒpəθi/), is traditionally defined as a personality disorder^[1] characterized by persistent antisocial behavior, impaired empathy and remorse, and bold, disinhibited, egotistical traits.

If you prefer the word psychopath, its fine by me, but sociopath is a word in the dictionary. I do not think Aegon was a psychopath though. Tywin shows signs of having no remorse for the suffering of others or death of others. Hiring the Brave Companions, knowing what Gregor Clegane does but being okay with it, his treatment of his family members (especially Tyrion), and especially the rape of Tysha...I find it hard to believe he cares much about anything except  himself, and Lannister legacy. Also, if it seemed a personal attack, I did not mean it to be. I just do not like when people defend behavior this extreme in fiction. As I said, I do not know what he gets out of it. In other words, I do not understand LionoftheWest's motivation to defend Tywin. I thought we were on the same side, so sorry if I offended you.

There is no disorder named "psychopathy" or "sociopathy". 

Aegon unleashed WMD over people who have never harmed him just because he wanted to be the King, Tywin killed people because he wanted to have more power that he already had.  If Tywin is a *psychopath* for his personal reasons, Aegon is pretty much the same. 

Edit; I am not defending Tywin’s actions, I am saying that Aegon wasn’t better than Tywin.

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

On 10/14/2016 at 0:39 PM, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Well I'm not familiar with the exact definition of what sociopathy is so I won't call him that. But I often wondered while reading the books if this guy has any capacity for emotions beyond ambition, pride, and anger (He hardly shows any reaction when Tyrion arrives with a crossbow while he's on the privy, for heavens sake ) so it's pretty weird. Maybe he was different when his wife was around, but we have to see.

And yeah Lord of Raventree Hall summarised perfectly why Tywin won the War of the 5K - due to plot armor  luck, and hardly any real strategy of his own -  except for the underhanded RW, of course.

Thank you and also, and to everything you said (I would have quoted everything you said, but it would take up too much space), simply brilliant. All well written and better said than I.

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

1 minute ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

There is no disorder named "psychopathy" or "sociopathy". 

Aegon unleashed WMD over people who have never harmed him just because he wanted to be the King, Tywin killed people because he wanted to have more power that he already had.  If Tywin is a *psychopath* for his personal reasons, Aegon is pretty much the same. 

Aegon, in the little we know about him, seems to show remore or regret for the loss of human life. You are right, and I already knew they are were not medical terms. However, they are real words. Are we having a discussion as psychiatrists or ASOIAF enthusiasts? My mother is a psychiatrist. Must I write, Tywin suffers from Antiosocial personality disorder for you to understand what I mean? Or could you just accept the commonly used terminolgy which has a definition to mean exactly what I mean? Also, on the Aegon note..was Harry S. Truman a sociopath? People may commit horrible acts, that does not mean they suffer from psychopathy. Stannis kills people to be King. Robb does. Tyrion, Jon Snow, Daenerys, Arya, Brienne, Jamie, ect. These people all murder others for their own gain, but they show remorse for their actions. They seem to value human life and oftentimes even think their actions will be heroic in the long wrong. I very much think Aegon was cut from this cloth. I think he thought he was doing the "right thing". Tywin murdered people because they did not respect him. Do you really not see the difference?

[Jon's Queen Consort]

2 minutes ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

seems to show remore or regret for the loss of human life.

How do you know that? If he had any remorse he wouldn't had used dragons, he would had met them in a battle as an equal.

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

3 minutes ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

How do you know that? If he had any remorse he wouldn't had used dragons, he would had met them in a battle as an equal.

How do you know that? It's called an assumption, something we are both making. From my memory, I believe he thought he was ending the wars between the 7 Kingdoms. I mean, just in reality, he probably did end some death by taking the Kingdoms. I cannot remember, but didnt basically all the River, Valish, and Northern lords end the war of conquest with no deaths. He didn't kill everyone involved like the Rains of Castamere..he forgave those even if they had initially fought against him. In a way, he ended all the wars between the individual Kingdoms from before his time. Do you think Alexander the Great or Genghis Khan or Julius Caeser were sociopaths? I don't. I am not saying they do not have gigantic egos or that they may have been selfish, but I do think they thought they were doing good things for the 'realm' and for 'their people'. Aegon was not an equal. He had a tiny army. His dragons gave him the ability, by your logic the Andals were all sociopaths too..they had iron weopans to tr bronze weopans of the First Men. And the First Men were sociopaths when they killed the Children of the Forest. You are not seeing what I think is an obvious difference between war and conquest, and one greedy man who cares about nothing except his families legacy. Winning a battle and accepting their defeats vs. sending his men to rape and kill villagers and murder children. You really do not see the difference???

[Jon's Queen Consort]

1 hour ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

snip

I don't agree. Since we have no idea why Aegon attacked Westeros with WMD or if he felt any remorse about the people he had killed I don't see the reason why we should assume that he was better than Tywin.

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

10 hours ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

I don't agree. Since we have no idea why Aegon attacked Westeros with WMD or if he felt any remorse about the people he had killed I don't see the reason why we should assume that he was better than Tywin.

Much like legal systems around the world, I believe that people are innocent until proven guilty, and not the other way around. As well, give me an example where Aegon murdered children or broke guest right please. Remember, the faith approved of Aegon.

[The First Man]

Well, both Tywin and Aegon have many traits in common but what separates these two personalities is the fact that while Aegon was a born warrior and more active and diligent in a battlefield, Tywin was more of a shrewd politician with accurate skills for dealing with the court intrigues and hence, a born ruler (nonetheless a good warrior). 

[Tini]

17 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

First of all, with GM Pycelle in Tywin's pocket, the idea that he didn't know what exactly was going in KL is nonsense. For sure, he'd have known about the incest and probably the reason for JA's death. With that knowledge, it's extremely easy for him to understand what Stannis would intend to do. At most, we can say Tywin would not have expected what Renly was going to do. But the most likely move for Renly would have been to support Stannis. Hardly any reason why Tywin should expect any support from him once war breaks out.

Where is the evidence in the text that Tywin knew of the incest?

Tywin used his knowledge to further his own interests. He had plans for his golden twins from the day they were born. He did not give up on his plans when Jaime joined the KG. If Tywin had known about the incest, he would've used that to blackmail Jaime into compliance with his plans.

 

[Jon's Queen Consort]

8 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

Much like legal systems around the world, I believe that people are innocent until proven guilty, and not the other way around. As well, give me an example where Aegon murdered children or broke guest right please. Remember, the faith approved of Aegon.

Do we have Aegon's biography or his PoV? Aegon most likely had killed children, during the Burning of Harrenhal, during the Conquest and the first Dornish war and even at the Field of Fire. The Faith accepted Aegon because they had no other choice,  Aegon had WMD, it was either accept him or die.  How faith really felt was proven during Faith Militant uprising.

A sane and decent man wouldn't had attacked a continent with WMD and without any provocation and would had installed himself as their king. Aegon was a monster just like Tywin and Tywin may had done it for his family, Aegon did it because he wanted to become the King.

[Lion of the West]

On 2016-10-16 at 6:15 PM, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Your original statement was: "It was a brilliant move by Tywin to knock the Riverlands out of the war. If Frey hadn't turned to Robb's side, they would have taken Riverrun."

And I stand by it.

On 2016-10-16 at 6:15 PM, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Now, what part of the timeline does this refer to? 

The time between Eddard being captive and Robb reaching the Twins.

On 2016-10-16 at 6:15 PM, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Pre Robert's death and Ned's arrest, Tywin couldn't have "knocked the Riverlands out of the war." as nobody expected full scale war. His intent was to react strongly against the insult to House Lannister and take Ned hostage so that he could be exchanged for Tyrion and the hostilities could end. 

After Ned was arrested, Tywin launched his war on the Riverlands. Now at that time, Robb declared his intent to march South, the Vale's loyalties were unknown but could be reasonably assumed to be with House Stark, Stannis was on Dragonstone and no chance he'd ally with the West, Renly had fled the city and one can easily figure out that Storm's End and the Tyrells would be with him, Martells no hope of an alliance.

I'll try to explain it this way. The way Tywin could adopt new plans to changing circumstances is a lesson in excellence. At no time is Tywin caught without an idea about what to do and how to do it. When he couldn't capture Eddard, he changed the goal to strike down the Riverlands which he did, and then positioned himself to block the only reasonable crossing except for the Twins over the Trident.

As for the others, its very different from joining someone to going to war with them. Sure, I agree that Tywin couldn't have counted on that the Baratheons, Tyrells or Martells would have joined with him, but its also clear that when the Starks and Lannisters started going at each other, that is when Tywin and then Robb responded to captive family members by calling their banners, then there was no indication that the southern half of the South wouldn't let the northern half+the North fight it out on their own. And just look at the Martells. They have kept out of the fight between Joffrey and Robert's brothers and only involves themselves after this is essentially settled.

On 2016-10-16 at 6:15 PM, Little Scribe of Naath said:

First of all, with GM Pycelle in Tywin's pocket, the idea that he didn't know what exactly was going in KL is nonsense. For sure, he'd have known about the incest and probably the reason for JA's death. With that knowledge, it's extremely easy for him to understand what Stannis would intend to do. At most, we can say Tywin would not have expected what Renly was going to do. But the most likely move for Renly would have been to support Stannis. Hardly any reason why Tywin should expect any support from him once war breaks out.

Pycelle may be a Lanniser man but its also clear that he tends to do what he thinks if well for House Lannister. I recall that Pycelle didn't work that well with Tyrion despite Tyrion being sent there by Tywin. A letter back and forth to settle the issue wouldbn't have been trouble, right? And then remember that Pycelle allowed Jon Arryn to die on his own initiative, not on the orders of some Lannister. Given these hints I see no reason as to why Pycelle would been in contact with Tywin at all and I uterly reject the notion that Tywin knew about the incest before he arrived in King's Landing following the Blackwater.

On 2016-10-16 at 6:15 PM, Little Scribe of Naath said:

So, when Tywin launched his attack of the Riverlands, I'm pretty sure he knew full well what the situation was and which way things would likely swing. That's why he took the only course of action he could have taken,

I agree. War was invitable with the Starks and their allies given the information that Tywin had and so war is what he both offered and took.

On 2016-10-16 at 6:15 PM, Little Scribe of Naath said:

But my point was that Tywin's reputation due to the Reyne-Tarbeck incident would have been the biggest reason why his forces didn't betray him, not due to some extreme talent on his side of keeping his forces together.

The Rains of Castamere certainly played its role but to that also comes other factions like the ancient traditions of the Lannisters to rule the Westerlands (just like the Starks and the Arryns), Tywin's long reign and his he seemingly fair treatment of his loyal bannermen (there isn't a hint of fear that I can detect in the tent when Jaime's defeat is discussed following the Battle of the Green Fork).

On 2016-10-16 at 6:15 PM, Little Scribe of Naath said:

What?  This list consisted of all the contributing factors which led to the Lannisters' "winning" the Wot5K. The first two incidents you listed were the causes of the war, not turning points during the war.

Ok, I thought you meant "main points".

On 2016-10-16 at 6:15 PM, Little Scribe of Naath said:

LOL. It was only the total stupidity of Balon that he thought he could hold the North in any way. Any reasonably smart IB King would have gone for the Westerlands.

I don't see why it would have been smart to go for the West. Every time the Ironmen have struck for the South they have been defeated like both Dalton and Dagon, and then Balon in his own rebellion. There's just no way that the Iron Throne will give up the Westerlands or that the Iron Islands would be able to win over a king on the Iron Throne. The big mistake Balon did was not to make a deal with Tywin first to ensure that his crown would be recognized by Joffrey before he struck at Tywin's enemies. If he had then the Ironmen could have had a chance to win in the North. In the West they would only been a repeat of Dalton Greyjoy's actions.

On 2016-10-16 at 6:15 PM, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Roose himself mentions that he lost faith in Robb after Winterfell had fallen. 

Could be. I only recall the scene at Harrenhall with the Freys entering panic mode when news comes of the Blackwater.

On 2016-10-16 at 6:15 PM, Little Scribe of Naath said:

That's true actually - now that I recall, he had left Jaime for dead. 

Essentially. Tywin don't back down no matter what and won't allow someone holding hostages to control him.

On 2016-10-16 at 6:15 PM, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Seriously? This is not about LF's manipulations. Can you imagine if the Vale and Dorne had entered the War against the Lannisters? It's not pure plot luck that two kingdoms - one with a huge beef against the Lannisters - stayed out of the War? The Vale joining Robb would have been game over for the Lannisters.

I actually say that the Martells were most certainly not luck as it was clear part of the Martell's design that they wanted a returned Targaryen king and not a Baratheon one, hence no support for either Stannis or Renly. You could argue that it was luck that kept the Vale out of the war, but if Littlefinger didn't have that influence over Lysa then there might not even have been a war between Lannister and Stark, at least not by that point.

On 2016-10-16 at 6:15 PM, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Yeah, that's why she had a kill list with all her victims which she used to recite every night, but magically forgot about when she had to give the names.

It would have been unrealistic if all three were Lannister names.  But even if a single one of the names had been a Lannister, it would have turned the story.

It would have turned the story but I find that Arya is a very impulsive person so she acting in character don't strike me as nearly as much luck as it was that she was given the three names to start with, so in that regard I think it kind of cuts both ways.

On 2016-10-16 at 6:15 PM, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Euron killed Balon,  thus removing another king from the board.

A king who was in no way a problem for Tywin and it gav Euron a huge fleet to attack the Reach with and withdrew the Ironmen from the campaign against the Starks. How is that luck for Tywin?

On 2016-10-16 at 6:15 PM, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Not at all, sorry. Pure plot luck there. There's very little reason why Robb should not have told him his plans.

There was little reason for Robb to be King in the North or to sleep with Jeyne Westerling either, but he did both and so isn't a long term thinker. I'm more inclined to think that he just had to much on his hands and mind, at like 15-16 years of age, and so made a mistake.

On 2016-10-16 at 6:15 PM, Little Scribe of Naath said:

LOL. No point, because you're anyways unwilling to admit to anything which might go against Tywin's supposed "brilliance" anyway.

Not really. I am ready to accept things that convince me. But the problem is that I have already been through this and I didn't reach my position by accident. Its a bit sad that I didn't get to list the Starks' various luck, or the bad luck Tywin getys, but that would be for another time.

On 2016-10-16 at 6:15 PM, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Anyway, I see no point in taking this discussion forward, because clearly neither of us are finding the other's arguments convincing. Let's agree to disagree.

That sounds like a good solution. I agree that I disagree with you.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

8 hours ago, Tini said:

Where is the evidence in the text that Tywin knew of the incest?

Tywin used his knowledge to further his own interests. He had plans for his golden twins from the day they were born. He did not give up on his plans when Jaime joined the KG. If Tywin had known about the incest, he would've used that to blackmail Jaime into compliance with his plans.

 

No evidence, but I'm pretty sure he might have realised atleast after all the intrigue with Jon Arryn's death began in KL and the rumours about Cersei's kids spread. It wouldn't have mattered much to him though.

[Tini]

1 hour ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

No evidence, but I'm pretty sure he might have realised atleast after all the intrigue with Jon Arryn's death began in KL and the rumours about Cersei's kids spread. It wouldn't have mattered much to him though.

Are we talking about the same Tywin Lannister who never forgot that Ellyn Tarbeck laughed when his father announced the marriage of Genna Lannister and Emmon Frey? Yes, it would've mattered very much to him.

He was not in KL at the time, in no position to hear those rumors. And no one with half a brain would've repeated those rumors to his face: no matter if Tywin believed that particular piece of news, he would've had something extremely nasty done to its bearer.

Because those rumors (and anyone who repeated them) threatened his dream to have his grandchildren sit on the Iron Throne, and because they'd make his family the laughing stock of the realm.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

2 minutes ago, Tini said:

Are we talking about the same Tywin Lannister who never forgot that Ellyn Tarbeck laughed when his father announced the marriage of Genna Lannister and Emmon Frey? Yes, it would've mattered very much to him.

He was not in KL at the time, in no position to hear those rumors. And no one with half a brain would've repeated those rumors to his face: no matter if Tywin believed that particular piece of news, he would've had something extremely nasty done to its bearer.

Because those rumors (and anyone who repeated them) threatened his dream to have his grandchildren sit on the Iron Throne, and because they'd make his family the laughing stock of the realm.

Sorry, I should have been more clear. My meaning with "it wouldn't have mattered much to him" referred to the actual incest itself, not the fact of the news getting out. I don't think he was without any informants in KL (no genuine player of the Game would take that risk, frankly.) So it's very possible that he had a hint that Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen weren't actually Robert's kids, but I highly doubt he'd have chastised Jaime and Cersei over the incest itself, he wouldn't care. What he would care about, as you said, was the secret being exposed to the public. 

The rumours were actually quite widespread by the time of ACOK, atleast. And are you actually suggesting Tyrion was smart enough to have realised what was going on (he suspects the entire Bran fall is because of J & C right off the bat) but Tywin suddenly sees a spate of honourable, lawful men plotting treason (Ned, Stannis, etc) and doesn't think something's up? Not likely to me. 

[Tini]

10 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Sorry, I should have been more clear. My meaning with "it wouldn't have mattered much to him" referred to the actual incest itself, not the fact of the news getting out. I don't think he was without any informants in KL (no genuine player of the Game would take that risk, frankly.) So it's very possible that he had a hint that Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen weren't actually Robert's kids, but I highly doubt he'd have chastised Jaime and Cersei over the incest itself, he wouldn't care. What he would care about, as you said, was the secret being exposed to the public. 

The rumours were actually quite widespread by the time of ACOK, atleast. And are you actually suggesting Tyrion was smart enough to have realised what was going on (he suspects the entire Bran fall is because of J & C right off the bat) but Tywin suddenly sees a spate of honourable, lawful men plotting treason (Ned, Stannis, etc) and doesn't think something's up? Not likely to me. 

Thank you for the clarification. You're right, Tywin wouldn't care about the incest in itself. But only as long as his children otherwise did what he expected them to do, and went along with his plans: he would've chastised Cersei and Jaime not for the incest but for upsetting his plans for Jaime (which got him stuck with Tyrion as his heir), and possibly laughing about him behind his back. Those are worse crimes than anything else they could've done.

We know how Tywin punished Tyrion (Tysha). We know that Tyrion experienced a pang of pity when Joffrey insulted Tywin - Tyrion looked at his father and knew that Joffrey had one of Tywin's lessons coming. Once Tywin found out, Cersei and Jaime would've been in for just such a lesson.

Tywin had a blind spot where his children were concerned. His children - actually, all matters at home - were dealt with by his wife. Her death left not only an emotional hole, it left a hole in management, and oversight. Tyrion did not share his father's blind spot - he knew what was going on. But then he grew up around Cersei and Jaime while his father was mostly absent. And just like all others, he would not have told Tywin.

I am not suggesting that Tywin was stupid. He was bound to find out the truth once he arrived in King's Landing, and had time to observe his children, and grandchildren, closely. But by then it was quite late in the game already - Jon Arryn, Ned Stark, Renly dead, Stannis on the run.

As always, Tywin was on the lookout for improving the family fortune. He was already planning a second marriage for Cersei. And Cersei would've been forced to comply. That would've led to a split between Jaime and Cersei - as Jaime would've stayed with the KG in King's Landing, while Cersei would've moved to her new husband's estates. That actually is the point that makes me wonder if Tywin knew. 

But most likely that was just Tywin intending to sell his daughter for profit once more. If he had known, he would have threatened to sell her down the river if Jaime didn't take up his place as heir of Casterly Rock again.