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The Iron Throne's Debt


The Lord Bastard

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I can't remember what the exact figure was. Wasn't it 15 million gold dragons? 

Obviously we don't know what debt or surplus Robert inherited from the Mad King, but the Small Council lead us to believe that it's King Robert's lackadaisical approach to the Crown's finances as being the reason the realm is broke. He is a glutton when it comes to feasting and drinking, and he does love his whores. Are these commodities that expensive though? 

King Robert only has one war during his reign and that's against King Balon. In fairness, the navy he built must've been a big one seeing as though Stannis was able to best the Iron Fleet. 

What's made me think about this is the "Littlefinger Debt Scheme" video series on the Preston Jacobs channel. I don't really agree with the conclusions of this video. Preston Jacobs seems to think that LF is working to fulfill a prophecy involving Harrenhal. That LF is just after the Iron Throne doesn't seem to be interesting enough for Preston Jacobs, who seems to want quite a bit of depth in every plot.

Having said that, though, the videos do contain some interesting analysis and evaluation of LF's buying of the Vale Houses. It makes me think of the Varys riddle and how power can be based upon a number of things. Could LF really take the IT just by being a shrewd businessman? 

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38 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The show says 6 million in debt. 3 million to the Lannisters and more to other families I can't remember off the top of my head.

The only figures we get from the books are 6 million total: ~900K to the Faith and the rest to the Lannisters, IB, Tyrells, and Tyroshi cartels. We don't know the rest of the amounts.

The three million from the Lannisters is given in the book.

Grand Maester Pycelle looked to Littlefinger and asked, “Will the treasury bear the expense?”
“What treasury is that?” Littlefinger replied with a twist of his mouth. “Spare me the foolishness, Maester. You know as well as I that the treasury has been empty for years. I shall have to borrow the money. No doubt the Lannisters will be accommodating. We owe Lord Tywin some three million dragons at present, what matter another hundred thousand?”
Ned was stunned. “Are you claiming that the Crown is three million gold pieces in debt?” “The Crown is more than six million gold pieces in debt, Lord Stark. The Lannisters are the biggest part of it, but we have also borrowed from Lord Tyrell, the Iron Bank of Braavos, and several Tyroshi trading cartels. Of late I’ve had to turn to the Faith. The High Septon haggles worse than a Dornish fishmonger.”

-AGoT, Eddard IV

It certainly doesn't help the treasury if each costs 90,000 dragons just in prize money, let alone other costs.

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6 hours ago, Michael Mertyns said:

The three million from the Lannisters is given in the book.

Grand Maester Pycelle looked to Littlefinger and asked, “Will the treasury bear the expense?”
“What treasury is that?” Littlefinger replied with a twist of his mouth. “Spare me the foolishness, Maester. You know as well as I that the treasury has been empty for years. I shall have to borrow the money. No doubt the Lannisters will be accommodating. We owe Lord Tywin some three million dragons at present, what matter another hundred thousand?”
Ned was stunned. “Are you claiming that the Crown is three million gold pieces in debt?” “The Crown is more than six million gold pieces in debt, Lord Stark. The Lannisters are the biggest part of it, but we have also borrowed from Lord Tyrell, the Iron Bank of Braavos, and several Tyroshi trading cartels. Of late I’ve had to turn to the Faith. The High Septon haggles worse than a Dornish fishmonger.”

-AGoT, Eddard IV

It certainly doesn't help the treasury if each costs 90,000 dragons just in prize money, let alone other costs.

I stand corrected. Worst part being that I looked up that chapter to write that post!

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1 hour ago, 1000th Lord Commander said:

I believe it's also stated, possibly in the same chapter, that Aerys left the crown in surplus when he died. I'd look it up, but I have a cat on my lap.

They are quite particular. My friend's cat just stares at me when I come over to feed him.

Ned was aghast. "Aerys Targaryen left a treasury flowing with gold. How could you let this happen?"
Littlefinger gave a shrug. "The master of coin finds the money. The king and the Hand spend it."
 
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Quote
"The Crown is more than six million gold pieces in debt, Lord Stark. The Lannisters are the biggest part of it, but we have also borrowed from Lord Tyrell, the Iron Bank of Braavos, and several Tyroshi trading cartels. Of late I've had to turn to the Faith. The High Septon haggles worse than a Dornish fishmonger."
 
Ned was aghast. "Aerys Targaryen left a treasury flowing with gold. How could you let this happen?"

At the start of Game, Robert had accumulated a little over six million in debt. We can guesstimate some approximations:

  • 3 million to the Lannisters
  • 1 million to the Faith (note that this is given later on in the series after the war)
  • 1 million to the Iron Bank
  • 0.5 million to each of the Tyrells and the Tyroshi

Granted there is no real textual basis for the last two, but it all seems like reasonable assumptions.

Even though there's been a long expensive war since we're told all this, I find it very hard to conclude that the Iron Throne's current debt is any more than 10 million. Apart from anything else, the Iron Bank isn't lending any more.

As for how that six million was accumulated in the first place, well Robert may not have been the most fiscally conservative of kings, but he had decent advisors and fought only one war during his reign, as well as inheriting a full treasury. I believe, along with many others, that Littlefinger was siphoning off Crown funds into accounts that he controlled, both to prepare himself for his long game and to destabilise Westeros further.

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On 11.10.2016 at 10:19 PM, Maester of Valyria said:

At the start of Game, Robert had accumulated a little over six million in debt. We can guesstimate some approximations:

  • 3 million to the Lannisters
  • 1 million to the Faith (note that this is given later on in the series after the war)
  • 1 million to the Iron Bank
  • 0.5 million to each of the Tyrells and the Tyroshi

Granted there is no real textual basis for the last two, but it all seems like reasonable assumptions.

 

On 11.10.2016 at 10:19 PM, Maester of Valyria said:

As for how that six million was accumulated in the first place, well Robert may not have been the most fiscally conservative of kings, but he had decent advisors and fought only one war during his reign, as well as inheriting a full treasury. I believe, along with many others, that Littlefinger was siphoning off Crown funds into accounts that he controlled, both to prepare himself for his long game and to destabilise Westeros further.

An argument I've heard repeatedly, but disbelieve. Littlefinger could have stolen from revenue surplus created by and only known to himself, but he could not have single-handedly created a deficit without Jon noticing the existence (if not the cause) of deficit.

We are expressly told that the Crown revenues under Littlefinger were 10 times what they had been under his "embattled predecessor".

For one thing, it confirms the problem was NOT his making - his predecessor was "embattled".

For another, it rings warning bells - how could even Littlefinger squeeze 10 times as much revenue out of Westerosi economy?

But this offers an explanation: we are told that revenue was greater than ever before, but not that it was 10 times greater than ever before.

The problem would be explained if the Crown revenues under Petyr's "embattled predecessor" had been far smaller than before, under Aerys.

Which might have happened if Robert gave away most of Aerys' income streams - tax breaks, giving to supporters profitable Crown properties, et cetera.

And that would explain the huge deficit under Petyr's "embattled predecessor" - Robert gave away Aerys' revenue, then went on to spend as if he still had it.

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On October 11, 2016 at 3:19 PM, Maester of Valyria said:

At the start of Game, Robert had accumulated a little over six million in debt. We can guesstimate some approximations:

  • 3 million to the Lannisters
  • 1 million to the Faith (note that this is given later on in the series after the war)
  • 1 million to the Iron Bank
  • 0.5 million to each of the Tyrells and the Tyroshi

Granted there is no real textual basis for the last two, but it all seems like reasonable assumptions.

Even though there's been a long expensive war since we're told all this, I find it very hard to conclude that the Iron Throne's current debt is any more than 10 million. Apart from anything else, the Iron Bank isn't lending any more.

As for how that six million was accumulated in the first place, well Robert may not have been the most fiscally conservative of kings, but he had decent advisors and fought only one war during his reign, as well as inheriting a full treasury. I believe, along with many others, that Littlefinger was siphoning off Crown funds into accounts that he controlled, both to prepare himself for his long game and to destabilise Westeros further.

Where are you getting those exact figures for the Iron Bank, Tyroshi cartells, and Tyrells?

 

42 minutes ago, Jaak said:

 

An argument I've heard repeatedly, but disbelieve. Littlefinger could have stolen from revenue surplus created by and only known to himself, but he could not have single-handedly created a deficit without Jon noticing the existence (if not the cause) of deficit.

We are expressly told that the Crown revenues under Littlefinger were 10 times what they had been under his "embattled predecessor".

For one thing, it confirms the problem was NOT his making - his predecessor was "embattled".

For another, it rings warning bells - how could even Littlefinger squeeze 10 times as much revenue out of Westerosi economy?

But this offers an explanation: we are told that revenue was greater than ever before, but not that it was 10 times greater than ever before.

The problem would be explained if the Crown revenues under Petyr's "embattled predecessor" had been far smaller than before, under Aerys.

Which might have happened if Robert gave away most of Aerys' income streams - tax breaks, giving to supporters profitable Crown properties, et cetera.

And that would explain the huge deficit under Petyr's "embattled predecessor" - Robert gave away Aerys' revenue, then went on to spend as if he still had it.

I think there is some evidence that LF was embezzelling and it comes from Tyrion when he takes over as Master of Coin, I'm not arguing that was the sole cause of the debt, but I do believe it was there.  Tyrion says he cannot make heads of tails of many of the investments, and that a lot of them seem to not be paying any return.  That seems like a pretty simply scheme, record an investment, and then say it failed, the ship sank or the cotton burned etc.

As far as incomes being 10 times as high, that statement came from Eddard who had no idea the crown was in debt.  Tyrion also notes that a lot of LF's revenue is actually loans, that's not really income it's just money coming in, and if you continually take out loans eventually you cannot pay them back.  Again not all LF's fault but to not at some point tell Robert that things are getting bad and that he cannot take more loans is definitely a dereliction of duty at best.

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3 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

As far as incomes being 10 times as high, that statement came from Eddard who had no idea the crown was in debt.  Tyrion also notes that a lot of LF's revenue is actually loans, that's not really income it's just money coming in, and if you continually take out loans eventually you cannot pay them back.  Again not all LF's fault but to not at some point tell Robert that things are getting bad and that he cannot take more loans is definitely a dereliction of duty at best.

No. That statement does NOT come from Eddard. It comes from a chapter of Tyrion. By Narrator

Clash of Kings, Chapter 17:

Quote

Tyrion had learned a few things about sweet Petyr, to his growing disquiet.
Ten years ago, Jon Arryn had given him a minor sinecure in customs, where Lord Petyr had soon distinguished himself by bringing in three times as much as any of the king's other collectors. King Robert had been a prodigious spender. A man like Petyr Baelish, who had a gift for rubbing two golden dragons together to breed a third, was invaluable to his Hand. Littlefinger's rise had been arrow-swift. Within three years of his coming to court, he was master of coin and a member of the small council, and today the crown's revenues were ten times what they had been under his beleaguered predecessor . . . though the crown's debts had grown vast as well. A master juggler was Petyr Baelish.

 

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The Iron Throne's debt probably has inspiration from the debts that the Kingdom of England raked in during the Hundred Years War and the War of the Roses. Especially in the latter example with how the relationship between the Medici bank and England's power dynamic affected the two, and the downfall of the bank's presence in the north. There is even a financial figure that comes close to LF in my opinion where he would swindle both sides (don't remember his name though).

I really doubt it has anything to do with a prophecy though.

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On 14/10/2016 at 2:17 PM, Jaak said:

An argument I've heard repeatedly, but disbelieve. Littlefinger could have stolen from revenue surplus created by and only known to himself, but he could not have single-handedly created a deficit without Jon noticing the existence (if not the cause) of deficit.

We are expressly told that the Crown revenues under Littlefinger were 10 times what they had been under his "embattled predecessor".

For one thing, it confirms the problem was NOT his making - his predecessor was "embattled".

For another, it rings warning bells - how could even Littlefinger squeeze 10 times as much revenue out of Westerosi economy?

But this offers an explanation: we are told that revenue was greater than ever before, but not that it was 10 times greater than ever before.

The problem would be explained if the Crown revenues under Petyr's "embattled predecessor" had been far smaller than before, under Aerys.

Which might have happened if Robert gave away most of Aerys' income streams - tax breaks, giving to supporters profitable Crown properties, et cetera.

And that would explain the huge deficit under Petyr's "embattled predecessor" - Robert gave away Aerys' revenue, then went on to spend as if he still had it.

Possible, but I lean towards Littlefinger embezzling the funds. Don't forget that the revenues' tenfold increase would appear on balance sheets that Littlefinger himself would have provided. In addition to which, Littlefinger is a financial wizard by all accounts: I'm sure he'd be able to make it appear the Crown's finances were in good shape. 'Ten times' could easily be an hyperbole: a shorthand way of saying the revenues have increased significantly.

@aryagonnakill#2's post above has some very good potential explanations for the situation.

 

23 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Where are you getting those exact figures for the Iron Bank, Tyroshi cartells, and Tyrells?

As I said, there is no real textual evidence for these figures, but they seem to be decent estimates considering what we know of each of the creditors, and these numbers are bandied around fairly often as an approximation.

 

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3 hours ago, Maester of Valyria said:

Possible, but I lean towards Littlefinger embezzling the funds. Don't forget that the revenues' tenfold increase would appear on balance sheets that Littlefinger himself would have provided.

And Littlefinger told Eddard and the whole Small Council about the debts and their distribution. He would also have told Jon Arryn.

Robert Baratheon did not have taste for counting coppers, but we are not told that Jon did not.

3 hours ago, Maester of Valyria said:

@aryagonnakill#2In addition to which, Littlefinger is a financial wizard by all accounts: I'm sure he'd be able to make it appear the Crown's finances were in good shape.

We see that he says they are not.

Also, his predecessor was beleaguered. He did not create the deficit.

When Petyr was a customs collector, he was bringing in 3 times as much as anyone else. He may have been collecting 6 times as much and stealing 3 times as much as anyone else was bringing in, but he did bring in that 3 times as much.

So suppose the budget was something like:

Aerys/Tywin: revenue 800 000 dragons per year, expenditure 700 000 dragons per year, surplus 100 000 dragons per year

Robert/beleaguered predecessors: revenue 100 000 dragons per year, expenditure 900 000 dragons per year, deficit 800 000 dragons per year

Robert/Petyr: revenue 1 000 000 dragons per year, expenditure 1 400 000 dragons per year, deficit 400 000 dragons per year.

Making sense?

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On 15/10/2016 at 6:27 PM, Jaak said:

And Littlefinger told Eddard and the whole Small Council about the debts and their distribution. He would also have told Jon Arryn.

Robert Baratheon did not have taste for counting coppers, but we are not told that Jon did not.

Littlefinger would have had to tell people about the debts, because envoys and correspondence etc from the creditors would have gone to the King/Hand - it's impossible to hide a debt's existence and approximate size. What he may have done, as said above, is make lots of false investments that he could then claim had all failed, while keeping the money for himself and his purposes. And Jon was the one who brought Littlefinger to court in the first place: Baelish is a master of charm as well as coin, Jon could very well have had confidence in him.

On 15/10/2016 at 6:27 PM, Jaak said:

We see that he says they are not. You're right, my bad.

Also, his predecessor was beleaguered. He did not create the deficit.

When Petyr was a customs collector, he was bringing in 3 times as much as anyone else. He may have been collecting 6 times as much and stealing 3 times as much as anyone else was bringing in, but he did bring in that 3 times as much.

So suppose the budget was something like:

Aerys/Tywin: revenue 800 000 dragons per year, expenditure 700 000 dragons per year, surplus 100 000 dragons per year

Robert/beleaguered predecessors: revenue 100 000 dragons per year, expenditure 900 000 dragons per year, deficit 800 000 dragons per year

Robert/Petyr: revenue 1 000 000 dragons per year, expenditure 1 400 000 dragons per year, deficit 400 000 dragons per year.

Making sense?

Petyr was bringing in money while he was a functionary, but now he's the Master of Coin and at the top of the food chain: he's reached where he needs to be to effect his plans. Now he can start embezzling funds.

Now of course he needs to bring in enough revenue to keep the crown solvent and maintain stability while he puts the pieces into play. But all the while he's nurturing a deficit that's mounting up into a debt.

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1 hour ago, Maester of Valyria said:

Littlefinger would have had to tell people about the debts, because envoys and correspondence etc from the creditors would have gone to the King/Hand - it's impossible to hide a debt's existence and approximate size. What he may have done, as said above, is make lots of false investments that he could then claim had all failed, while keeping the money for himself and his purposes.

No. He could not have done so, because that would have meant his failure as well. He could have concealed theft under failure, but he could not have concealed failure.

Littlefinger must have been able to tell Jon and Robert that while his predecessor was "beleaguered", he was not. He must have been able to blame continuing deficits and continuing increase of Crown debts on Robert in a way that both Robert and Jon believed - otherwise he would have been replaced in his turn. And an obvious way to show his own success was to decrease the deficit below the level that it was under his "beleaguered predecessor".

Without actually balancing the budget, mind you. As long as Petyr could say that matters were bad but not as bad as under his beleaguered predecessor, Jon and Robert would not hurry to replace him... and if Petyr could find a way to balance the budget but this was over and above what he needed to keep his job, he could steal the money instead.

 

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21 hours ago, Jaak said:

No. He could not have done so, because that would have meant his failure as well. He could have concealed theft under failure, but he could not have concealed failure.

Littlefinger must have been able to tell Jon and Robert that while his predecessor was "beleaguered", he was not. He must have been able to blame continuing deficits and continuing increase of Crown debts on Robert in a way that both Robert and Jon believed - otherwise he would have been replaced in his turn. And an obvious way to show his own success was to decrease the deficit below the level that it was under his "beleaguered predecessor".

Without actually balancing the budget, mind you. As long as Petyr could say that matters were bad but not as bad as under his beleaguered predecessor, Jon and Robert would not hurry to replace him... and if Petyr could find a way to balance the budget but this was over and above what he needed to keep his job, he could steal the money instead.

 

It's not his fault if a ship sinks or a caravan is taken by bandits. He wouldn't have had to do this very often to amass a significant amount. In addition to which he could simply have made successful investments (say with a threefold return) that he presented to the Crown as having only made a twofold return.

Well yes, of course he blamed it on Robert, maybe not to his face but certainly to Arryn and the Small Council.

Baelish almost certainly took steps to create a debt that was sustainable in good times, but would quickly become a millstone when chaos erupted (as he helped ensure it would). Robert didn't care about a debt that wasn't urgent, and I imagine the Small Council had more pressing immediate concerns.

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On 16-10-2016 at 7:46 PM, Maester of Valyria said:

Petyr was bringing in money while he was a functionary, but now he's the Master of Coin and at the top of the food chain: he's reached where he needs to be to effect his plans. Now he can start embezzling funds.

Based on the debts the Vale-houses are in, LF was probably working his magic in Gulltown as well.

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13 hours ago, Ser Scott Malkinson said:

Based on the debts the Vale-houses are in, LF was probably working his magic in Gulltown as well.

Oh I'm sure. Although many of them will probably be able to work their way out of debt (debt to other regions at least; Littlefinger will doubtless retain some sort of hold over them) when they start selling their grain in the winter for very high prices.

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