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Winds Of Winter Battles


Coolbeard the Exile

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There seems to be 4 big battles in the upcoming book. How do you think they will end and how will the victour proced? This is how i think they will go and i thought we could have a discussion on this.

 

March on Winterfell: 

The Boltons and Freys will recklessly charge Stannis and many of them will fall beneath the ice. In confusion the Manderlys will smash the Boltons in the ass and Stannis will engage them from the front. Manderly will explain to Stannis what happend to Davos and they will join forces. They will probably disguise themselves as the Bolton vanguard and will sneak into the castle that way. Once inside they will capture the castle and the north will swear fealty to him.

Next move for Stannis will probably be to reinforce the Wall and to make his way down to Whiteharbour with his army. There he will be met by Aurane Waters with the royal fleet. Stannis will now use his fleet to retake Dragonstone so he can start harvesting the dragonglass again. It is possible that he will try a blackwater 2.0 but i believe it is more likely that Stannis will stay on Dragonstone. There he will fight a sea battle with Danerys and there he will die and this alligns with Danerys house of the undying propheci of the blue eyed king.

 

Euron Vs Redwyne: 

Euron will probably beat Paxter with some magic and more i don't really know.

After that he will continue to raid the Reach. He will then take his fleet to the east coast to meet with Danerys. It is possible that he will help Danerys in beating Stannis who has a pretty powetful fleet and is the best commander in all of westeros. I do think Danerys will kill him later down the line when she realises what a fucked up motherfucker he is.

 

Aegon vs Mace: 

"Aegon" (Jon Connington) Will fight Mace on the field of battle. The Golden Company has a thousand extremely potent archers and i believe it will go down like Agincourt but with backstabbing and Elephants involved. This is what i think will happen. Mace's proud knights will recklessly charge The Golden Company. They will be mowed down by arrows and bolts. The Golden Company's elephants will be set loose and they will rampage through Mace's army. The "Friends in the Reach" AKA Tarly and Rowan will backstabb Mace and seeing as Jon Connington is prepared to do anything to get Aegon on the Throne will have any soldiers he considers unreliable or disloyal executed. 

Aegon will have an army roughly 30,000 strong because the "Friends in the Reach" will join him and it is said that the Stormlanders are swarming to him and so will all the rest after his victory. He will capture King's Landing and become King. Aegon will marry Sansa instead of Danerys probably. Danerys though will kill him in the 6th Blackfyre rebelion and Sansa will flee to the North probably.

 

Second siege of Meereen:

Barristan will rofl stomp the slaves. The Windblown and second sons have defected and they will catch them unaware in the back whilst the unsulied plow through the ghiscari legionaires. 

I believe they will be able to capture the entire enemy navy almost and that should be enough to bring both the Unsulied, the sellsword companies and the Dothraki over to Westeros. I believe they will go for Dragonstone first and there they will have a sea battle with Stannis. They will take a bit of a pounding and lose many ships but Danerys prophecy seems to imply Stannis gets killed there. Then she will go for King's landing and figure out he is a Blackfyre. For some reason there will be a final blackfyre war and Danerys will prove he is the mummers dragon. 

 

 

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Why would Aurane go to Stannis with his fleet? Even if he did Stannis would kill him I think just for being a pirate (he barely tolerated Saaladhor Saan). I think Stannis might win at Winterfell, I really hope Ramsay doesn't kill him somehow. 

Euron is definitely gonna smash the Redwyne fleet and sack Oldtown, he's just smarter and sneakier than the Reach lords and hes got the dark arts on his side. Hopefully we'll get an arcane battle between him and the Hightowers..? 

Hasn't Aegon already taken Storm's End? I can imagine Mace being routed or else bending the knee claiming he always loved the Targs? Depends I suppose if Loras and Margaery/Tommen are still alive. What are the "Friends in the Reach"? I can't remember that. 

You seemed to have left out the Ironborn in Meeren? Victarion has showed up and began to massacre the Yunkish outside Meeren in one of the sample chapters of Winds. Only way I can see a compromise between him and Dany is with Moqorro telling him shes the saviour or something then them rocking over to Westeros together.  

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Bryndenbfish posted a prediction of how the upcoming battle between Aegon and Mace might turn out in one of his blog post: https://warsandpoliticsoficeandfire.wordpress.com/2016/04/18/blood-of-the-conqueror-part-7-agincourt/

ETA: I just realized you mention Agincourt in your OP.  You've probably already read it. :P  Sorry. 

On 10/14/2016 at 6:45 PM, Knight of valour said:

Patchface prophecy implies Aurane will go to Stannis and he wouldnt kill him if he gifted him 16 warships 10 of them breing monsterous  dromonds. 

The Patchface prophecy might foreshadow some sort of alliance between Manderly and Velaryon/Waters,  but not necessarily supporting Stannis.  Additionally, Velaryons are already with Stannis.  Jon notes seahorses amongst the banners during the attack on Mance and the wildlings at the Wall.  If Velaryon and Manderly do ally together, Waters need not be involved.  

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Patchface: I will lead it! We will march into the sea and out again. Under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming, oh, oh, oh.

This seems to imply that Patchface will be with the Manderleys and Velaryon bastard and why would he be with those if Stannis is dead??

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15 hours ago, theblackdragonI said:

You seemed to have left out the Ironborn in Meeren? Victarion has showed up and began to massacre the Yunkish outside Meeren in one of the sample chapters of Winds. Only way I can see a compromise between him and Dany is with Moqorro telling him shes the saviour or something then them rocking over to Westeros together.  

I think the most likely scenario is she goes to Westeros as more or less a captive in the book version. It would sort of 'justify' all her delaying as far as the story arc goes, and it would also tie the dragon horn into it.

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Battle of Meereen: Most predictable. Dany's side, by virtue of being Dany's side, manages to hold off the slavers long enough for her to return and destroy them. Another option: Dany's side is defeated, but Dany returns with the Dothraki to retake the city. Either way, she's victorious, because, Dany.

Battle of Winterfell: Least predictable, because, Stannis lol. I think there's some truth to the PL. I'll guess that Stannis loses unexpectedly but does not die, eventually making his way back to CB. I hope I'm wrong, as I want more Stannis.

Euron vs Redwyne: I think Euron will win that one, but he won't win long term.

Mace vs Aegon: I don't believe there'll be such a battle. End of Dance, Mace is still in the city. I think Cersei will quickly overturn all of Kevan's agreements with Mace, and either annul Marg's marriage or attempt to kill her. This drives the Tyrells to Aegon. Somehow Cersei turns everyone against her, and holes up in the Red Keep. From there, she tries to set fire to the city, and Jaime kills her. imo. As to why Cersei would do such a stupid thing: CERSEI. In her way, she's as predictable as Dany.

 

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14 hours ago, Knight of valour said:

Patchface: I will lead it! We will march into the sea and out again. Under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming, oh, oh, oh.

This seems to imply that Patchface will be with the Manderleys and Velaryon bastard and why would he be with those if Stannis is dead??

Maybe Patchface will be with the Manderlys and Velaryons, maybe he won't.  The "fool leading an army" could be anyone, anyone paralleled with a fool in someway.  I don't discount the idea of Stannis leading a Velaryon/Manderly naval power, but I don't think Patchface saying he'll lead said navy necessitates Stannis' involvement either.  

As for Aurane Waters involvement, the Velaryons are already supporting Stannis and have troops in the North.  Waters need not be involved at all. 

Also, Stannis would not need to be dead; the Velaryons and/or the Manderlys need only switch sides.  

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21 minutes ago, PCK said:

 

That's exactly why I think he could lose. His victory looks assured on the surface. In reality, his army is at three huge disadvantages. They're outnumbered, starving, and in the freezing cold. The first one can be overcome with strategy, but the other two are devastating. 

Though no all fairness, Stannis does have the northern clans, and they're probably the most equipped to fight in the snow and ice.

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4 hours ago, James Steller said:

Though no all fairness, Stannis does have the northern clans, and they're probably the most equipped to fight in the snow and ice.

Stannis has other points in his favor too. He has information from inside WF, a.k.a Reek. Lord Bolton has divison among his troops and the northern men in general were only there for the "Stark" girl, and now she is gone. 

Spoiler

Bolton don't know that Karstark's failed at luring Stannis thanks to Alys Karstark.

Bolton don't have eyes outside WF and surely the Frey sent out are going to be killed by the Manderlys and/or Stannis men.

In favor of Bolton there are the massive WF walls, wich seem to be impenetrable to Stannis army in my opinion. So if the Bolton win, i think is going t be like it was written in the Pink Letter or something near that, just less impressive. But i feel that the wildlings will arrive just in the middle of the battle or right after it, and extinguish Bolton's army. About Stannis life condition i don't really have an opinion, but i hope he's not dead.

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With Winterfell it's difficult to predict exactly, a lot of little points that could go either way and it may not even come down to the fighting. I don't think Stannis will lose immediately, he will probably defeat the Freys who have come out to fight, but I can't see him lasting much longer. If he takes Winterfell something will go wrong shortly after, perhaps being betrayed by the North who want to crown Jon Snow?

Euron isn't losing anytime soon.

I don't think it would make sense for fAegon to lose to Mace Tyrell, the entire storyline would be pointless. I guess it is possible that Connington loses and fAegon retreats to Dorne but I can't see it myself.

No idea what will happen in Mereen. I don't think Mereen will fall but there is likely to be chaos once Victarion shows up. The real big question with this one is not what will happen in the battle, but rather what will happen if and when the horn is blown.

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On 10/15/2016 at 4:53 PM, BeastMaster64 said:

What makes you believe Stannis will lose? Everything seems set up for him to win. The enemy commander is autistic, he has his ice trap, his enemy is overconfident and there is the manderlys waiting to defect when battle is joined.

Mace Vs Aegon have you read Arianne II Winds Of Winter bro?

Battle of WF: I'm not sure, at least not the way I'm sure that Dany's side will win the battle of Meereen, which is why I said that, for me, it's the most unpredictable one.

Stannis has had a habit of losing when he should win; see Blackwater. I also believe that Ramsay wrote the PL, and that there's some truth to it, which would mean that Stannis didn't succeed. So my sense is we get another Blackwater, where Stannis's victory is snatched from him by something unpredictable. I hope that I'm wrong, as I really like Stannis.

...and yes I have read Arianne II, and I'm still not certain if it'll come to a battle between Aegon and Mace. This is a chapter without context. No one knows what's been going on at KL, what Mace intends. All I am sure of is that Kevan is dead, and Cersei will make certain that all of Kevan's deals with the Tyrells are flushed down the toilet, and that Tommen's marriage to Marg is on very shaky ground. That's why Varys killed Kevan, after all. My feeling is that this battle won't happen, and that even if it does, there'll eventually be an alliance between the Tyrells and Aegon.

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27 minutes ago, BeastMaster64 said:

Woudln't call it a habit of losing when you have only ever lost once and that was because of incredibly one in a milion bad luck.

ita I shouldn't have said he's in the habit of losing, as he's not, and I hope you're right on Stannis and WF, too. I'd like him to win. My main problem is I think Ramsay wrote the PL, which means something went very wrong for Stannis.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, kimim said:

ita I shouldn't have said he's in the habit of losing, as he's not, and I hope you're right on Stannis and WF, too. I'd like him to win. My main problem is I think Ramsay wrote the PL, which means something went very wrong for Stannis.

 

 

Why do you believe Ramsay wrote the letter? Im pretty confident Stannis wrote it.

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2 hours ago, BeastMaster64 said:

When you look at the motives, the means and the oportunity only Stannis really fits in.

This is a huge topic on which there are probably a hundred threads so I'm not sure this is the place to rehash it. Anyway, I don't think Stannis has any reason to write such a letter, as what can he achieve through subterfuge that he can't achieve by being honest? He has no motive, if he's victorious.

If he's won, then why doesn't he say so? This is a world where might makes right and allies flock to the victorious. Stannis should be announcing his victory, not hiding it.

Maybe he's besieging WF and has figured out that he doesn't have enough men, so he's trying to trick Jon into showing up at WF. Is this the way to do it? According to the letter, Stannis has been utterly defeated. Is Jon so dumb that he'd besiege WF with a couple of hundred wildlings? Jon is cautious; see his warnings to Stannis on besieging Dreadfort. WF is as strong as Dreadfort.

Jon loves his sister, so maybe Stannis is hoping to get him to WF via Arya. In that case, why does he say that Arya is no longer at WF? Per the letter, Arya (Jeyne) is on her way to Jon at CB...and she really is on her way to CB, as Stannis sent her there, along with Tycho. Even if Jon rushes to WF, he's going to meet his "sister" on the way and figure out that Stannis told him a pack of lies.

Then there's the "If you don't do as I ask, I'm coming to get you." This is a real problem for Jon, as CB can't be defended from the south. The likeliest thing is Jon goes guerrilla with his men, and tries to waylay Ramsay on the road, which is what he earlier said he'd do with the wildlings who were coming for CB. Back then he couldn't as he didn't have the men. Now he does. Again, I can't see his heading directly to WF; he's too cautious, and besieging WF with a couple of hundred wildlings is suicidal.

Stannis does tell Massey not to take rumors of his demise seriously, and to keep fighting for Shireen. I'm not sure how this works into the PL. I can see why Stannis might want people to believe that he's dead if he lost the battle (gives him a chance to escape) but why spread rumors of his death if he's won?

 

 

 

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I think Stannis will die but not until after he takes Winterfell. 

The Boltons are not making it out of this battle alive. The North will need to focus on the Others so the mundane Boltons have no place in the story now(and no Roose is not a vampire, such a stupid ass theory)

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2 hours ago, Makk said:

I was wondering where you came up with that figure. That means he has 500 men who are better fighters than Massey. When he started the march he had well over 1000 knights. Some of these will have died along the way but he picked up Mormonts, Glovers, Mountain clansmen, and a bunch of others. He probably has over 5000 men which puts things in a different perspective. He also just linked with the Karstarks who are planning to betray him.

  Reveal hidden contents

But of course in the winds of winter chapter he received Jon's warning and has probably gained control of all the Karstarks as well as obtaining the means of sending the Boltons false information. I believe this is the twist behind the pink letter, Ramsay wrote it but has been misled into thinking Stannis was defeated but he is actually about to enter Winterfell disguised as a Frey.

 

You're right, I was off by a lot (very embarrassing). Stannis starts off with 5,000 men. He probably has fewer now. He'll probably make up his numbers when he gets the Manderlys. Still, his men are starving and freezing, and I see no relief in sight for them other than horsemeat and cannibalism. Meanwhile, Roose got rid of the men most likely to incite a war within WF (Manderlys and Freys), caught Mance, and halved the mouths he must feed. He can sit there for months. Stannis can't, as he is screwed, as far as supplies go. Also, Stannis is not a Northerner or a Stark. He's a divisive, unpopular figure. Would the Northerners at WF rebel against the Boltons with Stannis besieging them? Do they want him as their king? idk.

I can't help but feel that Stannis is in the weaker position here, barring something--Stannis builds siege engines; Boltons can't resist them effectively because they're divided or Ramsay kills Roose and proceeds to behave so horribly that his men rebel, or one of Stannis's people finds a secret entrance, or Mel shows up and does some magic, or something like that.

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22 minutes ago, kimim said:

You're right, I was off by a lot (very embarrassing). Stannis starts off with 5,000 men. He probably has fewer now. He'll probably make up his numbers when he gets the Manderlys. Still, his men are starving and freezing, and I see no relief in sight for them other than horsemeat and cannibalism. Meanwhile, Roose got rid of the men most likely to incite a war within WF (Manderlys and Freys), caught Mance, and halved the mouths he must feed. He can sit there for months. Stannis can't, as he is screwed, as far as supplies go. Also, Stannis is not a Northerner or a Stark. He's a divisive, unpopular figure. Would the Northerners at WF rebel against the Boltons with Stannis besieging them? Do they want him as their king? idk.

I can't help but feel that Stannis is in the weaker position here, barring something--Stannis builds siege engines; Boltons can't resist them effectively because they're divided or Ramsay kills Roose and proceeds to behave so horribly that his men rebel, or one of Stannis's people finds a secret entrance, or Mel shows up and does some magic, or something like that.

To the bolded, why would Stannis be unpopular with the Northerners? He didn't kill Ned, Robb, Catelyn, any Starks or northernmen as far as they know. 

And you're totally underestimating the northermens' hatred of the Boltons, Freys, and Lannisters. I think the northernmen would be grateful for Stannis to help them take back the north and kill the Freys and Boltons also.The northernmen KNOW that Roose had a hand in betraying Robb, they don't know his exact involvement but him getting the position of Warden of the North, his little loses among his men, and the Frey wife/alliance is a big sign saying I betrayed my king. Plus Ramsy's abuse of Lady Hornwood and the potential knowledge getting out that he sacked Winterfell means that yes the northernmen in a Winterfell will destroy Roose/Boltons the first chance they get even with Stannis besieging them.

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