10k Golden company vs 15k Stormlanders

[Adam Yozza]

30,000 men for the Stormlands....yeah fair enough. Of them I'd say maybe 20,000 were raised by Renly. After all, the Dondarion's didn't send any men and the Swann's/Tarth's seem to only have sent a token force each (if that) and those are principle bannermen. Plus the other House's would keep some forces back.

So 20k. Tarly killed quite a few at Bitterbridge, maybe a thousand total. Several thousand were killed on the Blackwater after defecting to Stannis. Some are still with Stannis, either in SE or in the North. Some were sent to fight against Robb's armies at Duskendale, the Ruby Ford and then retaking the Riverlands after the RW (for example, the bulk of the Griffin's Roost men are probably with Red Ronnet at Harrenhal, most likely). So let's say that's 6k dead with another 1k still with Stannis in some way. Maybe about 4000 spread throughout the Kingdom (Dragonstone, Harrenhal, wherever Jaime parked his army and maybe even some at King's Landing). The remaining 10k probably dispersed after the war 'ended' and went home.

So, the GC invasion. First of, the GC is a professional fighting force, it's more like a standing army than a mercenary group. It's got a solid leadership structure that seems to be based on merit, every current member has years of experience in fighting as a collective group (wars in the disputed lands), they are a mix of Westerosi and Essosi styles (Westeros style's won't catch them of guard, Essosi styles WILL catch Westerosi's off guard) and finally they had the element of surprise on their side. The GC hit multiple locations hard and fast and didn't give the SL a chance to react. 

Secondly, the SL lost the war and most of their forces dispersed. Raising them again would take longer than it did the first time. Even if they managed that, who would lead them? All the skilled commanders are gone, anyone the SL could rally behind is either dead or thousands of miles away.

So yeah, to me the GC invasion makes perfect sense.

[tugela]

On ‎10‎/‎18‎/‎2016 at 4:53 PM, The Grey Wolf said:

On the point of meritocracy: 1. It is still more based on merit than birth so that counts, 2. I think you're overestimating the number of Westerosi in leadership positions, Lysono, a Lyseni, is one of the three top commanders under the captain-general and Black Balaq from the Summer Isles leads the archers. Plus, its been almost a century since the GC was founded. By this point the Westerosi amongst them have become heavily interbreed with all manner of Essosi so they're really Westerosi only in name.

On what makes the Golden Company different. To sum it up they are a professional, almost modern in a sense, army. They are well-organized and well-disciplined. They have a clearly defined chain of command based primarily on merit. They use combined arms tactics (where each part of the army is trained to fight alongside the rest) in contrast to Westerosi feudalism where each noble leads his own men and armies are only loosely coordinated. For proof look at the description of their camp outside Volantis in the first JonCon chapter and at how they operate in the second JonCon chapter as well as the most recently released TWOW Arianne chapter.

As for war the difference is that every member of the Golden Company has been participant in constant fighting for years in the Disputed Lands whereas the armies of Westeros haven't seen any conflict prior to the series for nearly a decade and more importantly we don't hear of any feuds that would mitigate that, which wouldn't jive anyway with Robert's reign being one of peace and prosperity (at least on the surface).

You are correct that war was constant in the Middle Ages however. Just look at the number of rebellions and wars "little" England saw from William I the Conqueror to John I alone for example. Westeros, then, is a little unrealistic in that it uses the standard fantasy trope of "years of peace and prosperity" without anything really changing. I mean, look at the reign of Viserys I, twenty-six freaking years without war or rebellion and yet absolutely NOTHING changed! No roads were built, no sewers, no canals, no new government positions, no new laws, no chivalric orders, no new royal mints, no new towns or cities, nothing! In real-life that would NEVER happen. Hell, in real life all the Targaryen achievements could have been accomplished in a few years by a single Roman emperor who historians would see as lazy and underachieving. Seriously, the best they built were DIRT roads even though they came from freaking Valyria and thus knew that better roads could be built in stone.

You are assuming that the sell swords were in a constant state of war, when more likely they would have been used to enforce order, much like troops in Westeros would be used. Essentially the bully boys and bodyguards for whoever they worked for. A great many of the people in these mercenary forces actually came from Westeros, since the feudal system there meant that second and other sons got not inheritance and had to make their own fortune. They were trained in war from birth, and that is why they became sell swords. Being a warrior was the primary job description of nobility in medieval times. One of the mercenary companies is even called the Second Sons for that very reason. These were people who learned their art growing up as nobility in Westeros.

There were other small wars going on in Westeros. The invasion of the Iron Islands being one example, the constant conflict with the hill tribes in the Vale another, or the periodic raids on Bear Island/northern communities by wildlings. But there would have been smaller conflicts between local lords as well, which for the most part would not have been considered a breach of the general peace since it would not involve the crown. An example of that was the generations long feud between two Riverland houses that Jaime had to go and settle after taking Riverrun, or the opportunistic kidnapping that Ramsey did. That kind of stuff was going on all of the time, and the reason why they had personal armies.

[Nyrhex]

On 18.10.2016 at 11:16 PM, Stormking902 said:

Lets say in my scenario the SL actually mount a proper defense against the GC, do the GC defeat them? Or are they thrown back into the sea like I realalistically believe they would. 

If the 15k Stormlanders are going by the regular ~25% cavalry to ~75% infantry ratio, we are talking about ~3,750 cavalry to ~11,250 infantry (including missile troops) for the Stormlands. We know that southern means later armor styles, which means that the bulk are going to be at the very least as well equipped as the Golden Company, if not better, but let's treat equipment as equal. We know that Stormlander archers are the best in the land, but let's keep this as equals. The Lannisters had 6,000 bowmen in Jaime's army (going by the numbers on the southern camp being 2,000 bowmen to 2,000 spears x 3 camps), and a volley from Tywin's archers was numbered in the thousands of arrows, which means that Tywin also had at least a couple thousand. So out of a combined host of ~35,000 men, nearly a quarter are bowmen. If we apply the same logic to the Stormlands, this would make the Stormlands ~3,750 cavalry, ~3,750 archers, and ~7,500 infantry such as pikemen, spearmen, axemen etc. 

The Golden Company has 500 knights and 500 squires for the mounted component, with a thousand archers and crossbowmen (50 Summer Islanders with Goldenheart bows, and a little over 300 crossbowmen, a little over 300 Essosi archers, and a little over 300 Westerosi style longbowmen). Out of 10,000 men that leaves 8,000 infantry that are not archers or cavalry.

With an unknown contingent of elephants, the Golden Company starts at a severe disadvantage by the dry stats. Add the element of surprise, and "iron discipline" that can uproot a camp 10,000 strong in an hour (man I wish my soldiers could do that when they were just 10 and didn't have to worry about literally carrying everything they owned or needed to support a friggin army...), but lose points on only making it to shore with ~60% and only 3 elephants by the time a Stomrlands with an army would have reacted logically. 

They Golden Comapny starts with literally a beachhead, ditched by Essosi ships who could not get out of there fast enough. They take a few small islands, and the ships on those islands (because why would islands in a region just next door of the pirate den that is the Stepstones need patrol ships or a single war galley, right? They can't have ships anyway because it's Shipbreaker Bay after all. Which is why they have those other ships that totally don't count but the Golden Company can just take in order to get off those islands... I need a moment). 

So, best case scenario (for the GC) the Stormlands get blitzed by the Golden Company. With 75% of the initial ~6,000 men that landed, the other 25% waiting on the beachhead waiting for more ships to find the landing zone. Three 1,500 men task forces... on what is blocking basically a quarter to a third of the Stormlands. Let's give them credit, they managed to knock out a third, or ~5,000 troops of the Stormlands with barely any casualties because those troops did not fight for their homes, they just went "nah". So we are left with 10k men vs 10k men. If those extra 4,000 arrive in time. Because tow of those three 1,500 men task forces (or one and the landing site and it's 1,500 defenders) are going to meet a host ~5,000 strong right about.... now.

You know what? Nah, let's say the Stormlands only get half the amount that fast. It's "only" a couple of ~2,500 men hosts against ~1,500 Golden Company forces at first. 

Stormlands still throw the GC back into the sea. The invasion is not sustainable against a region with more than literally skeleton garrisons, and I'm not even factoring the token Tyrell garrison under the command of Rowan, and I'm not even bothering to imagine what happens in two weeks when before the GC has time to lick it's wounds, Mace Tyrell says hello his 30,000 men wave in the background. 

Just leaving garrisons in the captured castles would be an issue. If you leave 50 men here and 50 there, those 1,500 men task forces are going to shrink considerably evey time they capture a castle. Sure they can leave behind 30 or 20 men, but if the population does not want them it's going to be a bit of an issue for 20 men to keep just the keep they are in, let alone patrol the large area that is left everywhere else. If a Stomrlander army wants to pass in order to engage the main hosts and drive the GC back into the sea before they deal with the minor sieges that would remain, it would pass. And there is little that a skeleton garrison could do other than watch them. This isn't a video game, you don't take over a region because you have the bare minimum of men in all capture points, but from the description in the books and the gift chapters the GC rule in the areas it captures is unchallenged, and they only face the bare minimum and have to deal with the token Tyrell garrison before they have to worry about Mace and a field battle.

It's a stupid inasion the relies entirely on plot shields to keep itself going long enough to have some impact on the story. Likely that impact is merely being another factor in why the Tyrells are spent later on. Because right now they are OP as hell.

[The Grey Wolf]

2 hours ago, tugela said:

You are assuming that the sell swords were in a constant state of war, when more likely they would have been used to enforce order, much like troops in Westeros would be used. Essentially the bully boys and bodyguards for whoever they worked for. A great many of the people in these mercenary forces actually came from Westeros, since the feudal system there meant that second and other sons got not inheritance and had to make their own fortune. They were trained in war from birth, and that is why they became sell swords. Being a warrior was the primary job description of nobility in medieval times. One of the mercenary companies is even called the Second Sons for that very reason. These were people who learned their art growing up as nobility in Westeros.

There were other small wars going on in Westeros. The invasion of the Iron Islands being one example, the constant conflict with the hill tribes in the Vale another, or the periodic raids on Bear Island/northern communities by wildlings. But there would have been smaller conflicts between local lords as well, which for the most part would not have been considered a breach of the general peace since it would not involve the crown. An example of that was the generations long feud between two Riverland houses that Jaime had to go and settle after taking Riverrun, or the opportunistic kidnapping that Ramsey did. That kind of stuff was going on all of the time, and the reason why they had personal armies.

The GC is in a constant state of war. They make a living in the freaking Disputed Lands for Seven's sake!

Also, you're wrong about there being other small wars in Westeros. Apart from the Greyjoy Rebellion there hasn't been any mention of any conflicts during Robert's reign and the mountain tribes of the Vale only start getting active once Jon Arryn dies. If you go back further, during Aerys II's reign apart from RR there is only the Kingswood Brotherhood and before that the War of the Ninepenny Kings.

[Coolbeard the Exile]

I would say that there are around 20,000 Stormland levies and knights left but the thing is that they are leaderless. Also the fact that they haven't been able to ressist Aegon is that all the levies have probably gone home to their farms and shops and it takes time to mobilize them and the Golden Company have blitzed the Stormlands.

[Coolbeard the Exile]

12 hours ago, Nyrhex said:

If the 15k Stormlanders are going by the regular ~25% cavalry to ~75% infantry ratio, we are talking about ~3,750 cavalry to ~11,250 infantry (including missile troops) for the Stormlands. We know that southern means later armor styles, which means that the bulk are going to be at the very least as well equipped as the Golden Company, if not better, but let's treat equipment as equal. We know that Stormlander archers are the best in the land, but let's keep this as equals. The Lannisters had 6,000 bowmen in Jaime's army (going by the numbers on the southern camp being 2,000 bowmen to 2,000 spears x 3 camps), and a volley from Tywin's archers was numbered in the thousands of arrows, which means that Tywin also had at least a couple thousand. So out of a combined host of ~35,000 men, nearly a quarter are bowmen. If we apply the same logic to the Stormlands, this would make the Stormlands ~3,750 cavalry, ~3,750 archers, and ~7,500 infantry such as pikemen, spearmen, axemen etc. 

The Golden Company has 500 knights and 500 squires for the mounted component, with a thousand archers and crossbowmen (50 Summer Islanders with Goldenheart bows, and a little over 300 crossbowmen, a little over 300 Essosi archers, and a little over 300 Westerosi style longbowmen). Out of 10,000 men that leaves 8,000 infantry that are not archers or cavalry.

With an unknown contingent of elephants, the Golden Company starts at a severe disadvantage by the dry stats. Add the element of surprise, and "iron discipline" that can uproot a camp 10,000 strong in an hour (man I wish my soldiers could do that when they were just 10 and didn't have to worry about literally carrying everything they owned or needed to support a friggin army...), but lose points on only making it to shore with ~60% and only 3 elephants by the time a Stomrlands with an army would have reacted logically. 

They Golden Comapny starts with literally a beachhead, ditched by Essosi ships who could not get out of there fast enough. They take a few small islands, and the ships on those islands (because why would islands in a region just next door of the pirate den that is the Stepstones need patrol ships or a single war galley, right? They can't have ships anyway because it's Shipbreaker Bay after all. Which is why they have those other ships that totally don't count but the Golden Company can just take in order to get off those islands... I need a moment). 

So, best case scenario (for the GC) the Stormlands get blitzed by the Golden Company. With 75% of the initial ~6,000 men that landed, the other 25% waiting on the beachhead waiting for more ships to find the landing zone. Three 1,500 men task forces... on what is blocking basically a quarter to a third of the Stormlands. Let's give them credit, they managed to knock out a third, or ~5,000 troops of the Stormlands with barely any casualties because those troops did not fight for their homes, they just went "nah". So we are left with 10k men vs 10k men. If those extra 4,000 arrive in time. Because tow of those three 1,500 men task forces (or one and the landing site and it's 1,500 defenders) are going to meet a host ~5,000 strong right about.... now.

You know what? Nah, let's say the Stormlands only get half the amount that fast. It's "only" a couple of ~2,500 men hosts against ~1,500 Golden Company forces at first. 

Stormlands still throw the GC back into the sea. The invasion is not sustainable against a region with more than literally skeleton garrisons, and I'm not even factoring the token Tyrell garrison under the command of Rowan, and I'm not even bothering to imagine what happens in two weeks when before the GC has time to lick it's wounds, Mace Tyrell says hello his 30,000 men wave in the background. 

Just leaving garrisons in the captured castles would be an issue. If you leave 50 men here and 50 there, those 1,500 men task forces are going to shrink considerably evey time they capture a castle. Sure they can leave behind 30 or 20 men, but if the population does not want them it's going to be a bit of an issue for 20 men to keep just the keep they are in, let alone patrol the large area that is left everywhere else. If a Stomrlander army wants to pass in order to engage the main hosts and drive the GC back into the sea before they deal with the minor sieges that would remain, it would pass. And there is little that a skeleton garrison could do other than watch them. This isn't a video game, you don't take over a region because you have the bare minimum of men in all capture points, but from the description in the books and the gift chapters the GC rule in the areas it captures is unchallenged, and they only face the bare minimum and have to deal with the token Tyrell garrison before they have to worry about Mace and a field battle.

It's a stupid inasion the relies entirely on plot shields to keep itself going long enough to have some impact on the story. Likely that impact is merely being another factor in why the Tyrells are spent later on. Because right now they are OP as hell.

You seem to underestimate the Golden Company severly. They are supposed to be the most disciplined and skilled army in the world and they aren't one of those companies that compose of 99% cowards. The average Westerosi army only has 25% knights and the rest are peasants who are unmotivated and that are generally not superbly equipped. The veteran soldiers of the Golden company should wipe the floor with any of the Westerosi footmen.

They are also lead by Jon Connington who seems to be the most hardcore and competent commander and warrior ever and he is up against Mace Tyrell.

The Golden Company knew they would be able to Conquer the Stormlands swiftly and rally support and recruit more troops as most of the Stormlands soldiers are intact but caught unprepeard. They know that the Crownlands and Westerlands forces are really depleted and they have "friends in the reach" who will betray Mace in the battle. They also have elephants that will terrify the enemy horses and peasants. They also have an elite archer force that Jon Connington notes to be lethal.

This is what will happen. Jon Connington will defeat Mace pretty easily. 

This is how it will go down. The proud and dumb Tyrell knights will recklessly charge the Golden Company and they will be decimated like at Agincourt. The knights that do reach the Golden Company's lines will be meet by disciplined lines of spearmen. Connington will unleash the elephants and The "Friends in the Reach" will start attacking Mace. Mace will be utterly defeated and Jon Connington will now have Dorne on his side, "Friends in the Reach" and Stormland supporters which should bring his numbers up to around 50,000 soldiers, that is no joke.

[Canon Claude]

9 minutes ago, BeastMaster64 said:

They are also lead by Jon Connington who seems to be the most hardcore and competent commander and warrior ever

Okay, I highly doubt that Jon Connington is that good. Sure, he was talented enough to rise high in the Golden Company, but he only spent five years with them. Before that, his most notable battle was the Battle of the Bells, and that was a defeat. He then spent twelve years raising Aegon. Even if he's been keeping physically fit and training with swords, it's not like he's been campaigning all this time.

[Ser Scott Malkinson]

11 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

The GC is in a constant state of war. They make a living in the freaking Disputed Lands for Seven's sake!

Also, you're wrong about there being other small wars in Westeros. Apart from the Greyjoy Rebellion there hasn't been any mention of any conflicts during Robert's reign and the mountain tribes of the Vale only start getting active once Jon Arryn dies. If you go back further, during Aerys II's reign apart from RR there is only the Kingswood Brotherhood and before that the War of the Ninepenny Kings.

I think tugela is more speaking of Lordly disputes like the one between Ser Eustace Osgrey and Lady Rohanne Webber in The Sworn Sword. Of course we don't hear about them, but they do seem to take place all the time, as is mentioned in that book. We do see something similar to this when the question of the Hornwood inheritance is posed in aCoK.

Edit: The Sworn Sword does show the lack of training the smallfolk get though, and that's a problem sellsword companies don't have, so the GC would indeed have better fighters.

[Lord Varys]

This is an academic question. There won't be a battle of 10,000 Golden Company men against 15,000 Stormlanders because the Stormlanders already seem to join Prince Aegon.

In addition, there is no reason to assume that the Stormlords would be able to marshal 15,000 men even if a portion of them would decide to oppose the Golden Company. The only region of the Stormlords who might have the manpower left to marshal a sizable host would be the Marcher Lords - but they would be utterly stupid to do so considering that they know that the Martells have armies in the mountains which might jump on the chance to invade their lands if the Marcher Lords turned against Aegon (or just left their lands undefended). A worst case scenario would be that the Marcher Lords being caught between the Dornishmen and the Golden Company.

In light of that it is very likely that the Marcher Lords will also join Prince Aegon. Perhaps only after Arianne Martell declares for him but perhaps even before that.

The other thing is that Jon Connington is a fellow Stormlord, not likely to be seen as an evil foreign invader. As long as the Golden Company more or less behaves it is very unlikely that an anti-Aegon movement will gain momentum in the Stormlands. Especially considering that the Stormlords don't really like the Lannister regime.

Finally we have to consider the fact that the Stormlands are basically leaderless right now, especially those who might be technically in a position to do something about the invasion. Lord Swann's two sons aren't in the Marches, Lord Dondarrion is dead (and we don't know if he has any close male relations), and House Caron seems to be extinct in the male line.

The whereabouts of the Stormlander levies are also not really known. We have reason to believe that the Marcher levies mostly stayed at home. Some men were put to death by Randyll Tarly at Bitterbridge (Stormlanders might have been included) but the blasted plot that Renly's foot remained at Bitterbridge makes it very unlikely that many Stormlander levies actually were with Stannis. At least not those men who remained at Bitterbridge. Those would have dispersed, although it is somewhat possible that some lords/knights/noblemen stayed back with their levies at Bitterbridge and then decided to sneak away to join Stannis at Storm's End. But that is never mentioned in the books.

It is more likely that whatever footmen Stannis had at the Blackwater were recruited from the lands near Storm's End (i.e. the Kingswood and in general the northern reaches of the Stormlands) after he had killed Renly. He would have the time and the opportunity to send out riders to raise new levies.

Most of the Stormlanders fighting at the Blackwater would still be part of the two Tyrell armies - the men who died at Duskendale fighting under Randyll Tarly's command excluded, of course.

If a majority of the Stormlanders ens up joining Aegon then Mace/Tarly could get into trouble if whatever army they send against Aegon includes a sizable portion of Stormlanders.

As to the Golden Company:

They are professional soldiers. There are no professional soldiers in Westeros as far as we know because Westeros isn't in a state of continuous warfare. Sure, the knights, freeriders, and men-at-arms should also be professionals considering that their trade is killing people. But only a fraction of them would have fought in actual wars, and the majority of the levies in all of the Westerosi armies would never have fought in any war.

By comparison, every soldier in the Golden Company - knight, squire, archer, common soldier - is a bloodied veteran. Everyone of those men has fought in countless battles and has personally killed dozens of men (presumably).

They enjoy a huge psychological advantage over their Westerosi adversaries in that field, meaning that the Golden Company - being the best free company in Essos - should not be afraid facing a larger army nor is it likely that their lines will break easily. They are the kind of men who should stand their ground even if the battle seems to turn against them - and that's the kind of stamina you need to win. Not to mention that they are likely to retreat in good order, meaning that they will live to fight another day and not suffer as many losses as an army that's likely to break.

[Adam Yozza]

21 minutes ago, Ser Scott Malkinson said:

I think tugela is more speaking of Lordly disputes like the one between Ser Eustace Osgrey and Lady Rohanne Webber in The Sworn Sword. Of course we don't hear about them, but they do seem to take place all the time, as is mentioned in that book. We do see something similar to this when the question of the Hornwood inheritance is posed in aCoK.

Edit: The Sworn Sword does show the lack of training the smallfolk get though, and that's a problem sellsword companies don't have, so the GC would indeed have better fighters.

Yeah but issue's like that don't involve the bulk of their armies, do they? I can't imagine a Lord calling up their entire levy force for a lordly dispute (unless I'm sorely mistaken, which I may be because I've never actually read the Sworn Sword). I'd have thought stuff like that would be settled with knights, household guards and men at arms, who typically only make up between 1/4 and 1/3 of any army. Same story with the mountain clansmen that tugela mentioned.

The Hornwood thing only happened during wartime and it was of enough importance to be mentioned explicitly. If had happened constantly then we would have been told. So yes, it happened, but only rarely and even then it would, once again, not usually involve levies.

Yeah, you're right about the levies. In a 15k Stormlander army there would only be about 4k trained fighters. The rest would be smallfolk who would (let's be honest) break the minute the elephants started charging.  

 

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

Yeah but issue's like that don't involve the bulk of their armies, do they? I can't imagine a Lord calling up their entire levy force for a lordly dispute (unless I'm sorely mistaken, which I may be because I've never actually read the Sworn Sword). I'd have thought stuff like that would be settled with knights, household guards and men at arms, who typically only make up between 1/4 and 1/3 of any army. Same story with the mountain clansmen that tugela mentioned.

You should read TSS. And the other D&E stories as well. However, the Webber-Osgrey dispute isn't something that happens all the time. Especially not a conflict that is actually decided by violence. Lady Rohanne and Ser Eustace are both breaking the King's Peace there and both might face severe repercussions from their liege lords for something like (Lord Rowan, Lord Tyrell, King Aerys I). Something like that is not unlikely to happen when there is a weak king or weak overlord, not the mention a time of crisis (like the drought that's troubling the Reach in TSS).

4 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

Yeah, you're right about the levies. In a 15k Stormlander army there would only be about 4k trained fighters. The rest would be smallfolk who would (let's be honest) break the minute the elephants started charging.

I forgot the elephants up there. Those might not only send the footmen running but also a good portion of the horsemen. The horses of the Golden Company will be accustomed to the presence of elephants. The horses of the Westerosi knights will not. And, yeah, most of the Westerosi levies won't even have seen an elephant in their lives, let alone faced one in battle.

[Adam Yozza]

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

This is an academic question. There won't be a battle of 10,000 Golden Company men against 15,000 Stormlanders because the Stormlanders already seem to join Prince Aegon. (1)

In addition, there is no reason to assume that the Stormlords would be able to marshal 15,000 men even if a portion of them would decide to oppose the Golden Company. The only region of the Stormlords who might have the manpower left to marshal a sizable host would be the Marcher Lords - but they would be utterly stupid to do so considering that they know that the Martells have armies in the mountains which might jump on the chance to invade their lands if the Marcher Lords turned against Aegon (or just left their lands undefended). A worst case scenario would be that the Marcher Lords being caught between the Dornishmen and the Golden Company.

In light of that it is very likely that the Marcher Lords will also join Prince Aegon. Perhaps only after Arianne Martell declares for him but perhaps even before that. (2)

The other thing is that Jon Connington is a fellow Stormlord, not likely to be seen as an evil foreign invader. As long as the Golden Company more or less behaves it is very unlikely that an anti-Aegon movement will gain momentum in the Stormlands. Especially considering that the Stormlords don't really like the Lannister regime. (3)

Finally we have to consider the fact that the Stormlands are basically leaderless right now, especially those who might be technically in a position to do something about the invasion. Lord Swann's two sons aren't in the Marches, Lord Dondarrion is dead (and we don't know if he has any close male relations), and House Caron seems to be extinct in the male line. (4)

The whereabouts of the Stormlander levies are also not really known. We have reason to believe that the Marcher levies mostly stayed at home. Some men were put to death by Randyll Tarly at Bitterbridge (Stormlanders might have been included) but the blasted plot that Renly's foot remained at Bitterbridge makes it very unlikely that many Stormlander levies actually were with Stannis. At least not those men who remained at Bitterbridge. Those would have dispersed, although it is somewhat possible that some lords/knights/noblemen stayed back with their levies at Bitterbridge and then decided to sneak away to join Stannis at Storm's End. But that is never mentioned in the books. (5)

It is more likely that whatever footmen Stannis had at the Blackwater were recruited from the lands near Storm's End (i.e. the Kingswood and in general the northern reaches of the Stormlands) after he had killed Renly. He would have the time and the opportunity to send out riders to raise new levies.

Most of the Stormlanders fighting at the Blackwater would still be part of the two Tyrell armies - the men who died at Duskendale fighting under Randyll Tarly's command excluded, of course.

If a majority of the Stormlanders ens up joining Aegon then Mace/Tarly could get into trouble if whatever army they send against Aegon includes a sizable portion of Stormlanders. (6)

1) Absolutely right. The SL doesn't have the time, leadership nor motivation to raise 15,000 men

2) Yeah probably. Trapped between two armies and not particularly fond of the ruling regime they don't have much motivation to fight Aegon.

3) Correct again. Furthermore, after Roberts Rebellion a lot of the Connington lands were given to neighboring lords. The peasants in those lands (who were once ruled by Jon) are very unlikely to take up arms against their old liege, and so those lords (if they even wished to) would struggle to raise a large force.

4) This point has been made several times but the anti-Aegon faction on the forum doesn't seem to grasp this. Beric Dondarion is dead, Gulian Swann is an old man, Guyard Morrigen is dead, Rolland Storm is dead (presumably), Bryce Caron is dead, Selwyn Tarth is probably dead, Harwood Fell is dead, Stannis is stuck in the North. Who is left to gather a Stormlands army? Answer= no one.

5) Stannis didn't have any SL infantry with him at the Blackwater, or Reach infantry. Stannis had 5000 men from the Narrow Sea, Crownlands, Myr and Lys. They were the infantry on his fleet. The rest of his army was 16,000 cavalry from the Stormlands and the Reach. Half of that cavalry switched sides (mostly Reachmen, I'd assume), which brings Stannis' total down to about 13,000. Several thousand men at arms were killed, and another several thousand were stranded and surrendered. We can work out how many several is from what we know of Stannis' numbers later. He only has 1500 with him in the North, plus the Dragonstone garrison (a hundred or so). Which means between death and surrender he must lose about 11,000. You've got about 3k of that aboard the fleet that got killed in the wildfire. So maybe another 4k surrendered and 4k were killed. 

Those 4k were probably folded into the Tyrell army. About 1,000 dead at Duskendale (They would have been the front line) and the rest spread between Harrenhal, Riverrun, Dragonstone and KL.

The infantry at Bitterbridge was either killed by Tarly or dispersed back to their homes.

6) Yeah, especially when the 'friends in the Reach' turn their cloak and attack Mace from behind. I suspect the Redwyne's, Tarly's and Rowan's more than anyone. All were pretty solid Targaryen loyalists in RR and I'm sure all of them will be chafing under Mace's rule (taking credit for Ashford is particularly dickish, and is bound to be pissing off Tarly more than he lets on)

2 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

You should read TSS. And the other D&E stories as well. However, the Webber-Osgrey dispute isn't something that happens all the time. Especially not a conflict that is actually decided by violence. Lady Rohanne and Ser Eustace are both breaking the King's Peace there and both might face severe repercussions from their liege lords for something like (Lord Rowan, Lord Tyrell, King Aerys I). Something like that is not unlikely to happen when there is a weak king or weak overlord, not the mention a time of crisis (like the drought that's troubling the Reach in TSS).

I forgot the elephants up there. Those might not only send the footmen running but also a good portion of the horsemen. The horses of the Golden Company will be accustomed to the presence of elephants. The horses of the Westerosi knights will not. And, yeah, most of the Westerosi levies won't even have seen an elephant in their lives, let alone faced one in battle.

I've read the Hedge Knight and from The World of Ice and Fire I know the general story of Dunk and Egg but I have been meaning to read the actual books. Yeah, the Webber-Osgrey thing I could see happening under weaker overlords. Not Robert, which means it wouldn't have happened often (if ever) in the decade and a half since Robert took the throne.

I always thought that those elephants could well be the ace in the GC's sleeve. 

[Lord Varys]

37 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

4) This point has been made several times but the anti-Aegon faction on the forum doesn't seem to grasp this. Beric Dondarion is dead, Gulian Swann is an old man, Guyard Morrigen is dead, Rolland Storm is dead (presumably), Bryce Caron is dead, Selwyn Tarth is probably dead, Harwood Fell is dead, Stannis is stuck in the North. Who is left to gather a Stormlands army? Answer= no one.

Not sure Rolland Storm is dead but even if he is still alive he would be a prisoner on Dragonstone and thus a non-factor.

There is no reason to believe Selwyn Tarth is dead, though. The man is not exactly young and thus unlikely to participate in a battle. In addition, the policy of the Golden Company is not to kill but to capture nobles. Not to mention that Selwyn and Brienne apparently being rather close Targaryen cousins should make it very unlikely that they would want to see Lord Selwyn dead.

37 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

5) Stannis didn't have any SL infantry with him at the Blackwater, or Reach infantry. Stannis had 5000 men from the Narrow Sea, Crownlands, Myr and Lys. They were the infantry on his fleet. The rest of his army was 16,000 cavalry from the Stormlands and the Reach. Half of that cavalry switched sides (mostly Reachmen, I'd assume), which brings Stannis' total down to about 13,000. Several thousand men at arms were killed, and another several thousand were stranded and surrendered. We can work out how many several is from what we know of Stannis' numbers later. He only has 1500 with him in the North, plus the Dragonstone garrison (a hundred or so). Which means between death and surrender he must lose about 11,000. You've got about 3k of that aboard the fleet that got killed in the wildfire. So maybe another 4k surrendered and 4k were killed. 

Those 4k were probably folded into the Tyrell army. About 1,000 dead at Duskendale (They would have been the front line) and the rest spread between Harrenhal, Riverrun, Dragonstone and KL.

The infantry at Bitterbridge was either killed by Tarly or dispersed back to their homes.

The problem with the idea that Stannis' foot were mostly Narrow Sea men is 

Spoiler

that we know from Arianne 2 that Lady Mertyn's male descendants joined Renly and neither they (who could have been at Storm's End with the horse) nor their levies ever returned. If the Mertyn men had been at Bitterbridge one would expect that they had come back home in the meantime.

Thus I'm inclined to believe that some Stormlander levies must have teamed up with Stannis somehow. And the presence of Crownlanders among Stannis' army in ADwD also suggests that he was able to recruit some men from those regions before the Blackwater.

44 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

6) Yeah, especially when the 'friends in the Reach' turn their cloak and attack Mace from behind. I suspect the Redwyne's, Tarly's and Rowan's more than anyone. All were pretty solid Targaryen loyalists in RR and I'm sure all of them will be chafing under Mace's rule (taking credit for Ashford is particularly dickish, and is bound to be pissing off Tarly more than he lets on)

Lord Mathis Rowan most likely will join Prince Aegon. He should only need a little bit of nudging. That man seems to be an honest Targaryen loyalist. Either they will win his loyalty before they make their bid to Storm's End or afterwards should they capture him.

But there is no reason to believe that Tarly or Redwyne (who is right now preparing to face Euron and not very likely to survive that battle) have any reason to betray Mace. Both greatly profited from their part in the War of the Five Kings and the Redwynes and Tyrells are heavily intermarried (Olenna-Luthor and Paxter-Mina) making it very unlikely that there is going to be any betrayal there. Tarly has risen to great power at court under Tommen. With right now only Mace, Tarly, and Swyft (not for long) in the city Tarly has the chance to dominate the government of young King Tommen for years to come. He has no chance whatsoever to acquire the same amount of power under a King Aegon. Aegon has other friends and allies he has to reward first. Randyll Tarly might get some minor rewards, too, but Aegon is not likely to name him to his Small Council.

44 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

I always thought that those elephants could well be the ace in the GC's sleeve. 

I expect Connington choosing a battlefield to confront the Tyrell host where they can make the best out of the terrain (which Connington should know much better than any of the Reach men), possibly using the elephants as a surprise. The Tyrell army would have to cross the Kingswood to get to Storm's End. Elephants are big, but they should be able to hide them somewhere among the trees, unleashing them in a devastating way when the Tyrells are least expecting them.

[Ser Scott Malkinson]

2 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

Yeah but issue's like that don't involve the bulk of their armies, do they? I can't imagine a Lord calling up their entire levy force for a lordly dispute (unless I'm sorely mistaken, which I may be because I've never actually read the Sworn Sword). I'd have thought stuff like that would be settled with knights, household guards and men at arms, who typically only make up between 1/4 and 1/3 of any army. Same story with the mountain clansmen that tugela mentioned.

The Hornwood thing only happened during wartime and it was of enough importance to be mentioned explicitly. If had happened constantly then we would have been told. So yes, it happened, but only rarely and even then it would, once again, not usually involve levies.

Yeah, you're right about the levies. In a 15k Stormlander army there would only be about 4k trained fighters. The rest would be smallfolk who would (let's be honest) break the minute the elephants started charging.  

 

The Sworn Sword spoilers:

Spoiler

Actually, ser Eustace did raise his levies from the peasants in his land. Since he was a very minor landed knight, his 'army' consisted of maybe a dozen soldiers, including the two knights in his service at the time. Lady Rohanne did indeed only used her better trained household guards and men at arms, but that could be ascribed to her force already vastly outnumbering ser Eustace's (I think she already had 20 knights in her service).

The Hornwood thing happened during wartime, but it had nothing to do with the war. It had to do with a muddled inheritance, where the heir was unclear. Of course it doesn't happen constantly, because it isn't often the case that the inheritance is so unclear. This situation arose because both Lord Hornwood and his only heir died during that war, but the situation would have emerged as well had they died of, say, an illness. Maybe Ramsay wouldn't have captured Lady Hornwood had Robb been in the North to act on it (or Roose to rein him in), but we're still talking about Ramsay here...

But I agree with you that the smallfolk would break quickly in an elephant charge (hell, they would probably break in a normal cavalry charge) and that they don't come close in skill to the GC. The GC are even way more experienced fighters than the average Westerosi knight after all.

[Adam Yozza]

1 hour ago, Ser Scott Malkinson said:

The Sworn Sword spoilers:

  Reveal hidden contents

Actually, ser Eustace did raise his levies from the peasants in his land. Since he was a very minor landed knight, his 'army' consisted of maybe a dozen soldiers, including the two knights in his service at the time. Lady Rohanne did indeed only used her better trained household guards and men at arms, but that could be ascribed to her force already vastly outnumbering ser Eustace's (I think she already had 20 knights in her service).

The Hornwood thing happened during wartime, but it had nothing to do with the war. It had to do with a muddled inheritance, where the heir was unclear. Of course it doesn't happen constantly, because it isn't often the case that the inheritance is so unclear. This situation arose because both Lord Hornwood and his only heir died during that war, but the situation would have emerged as well had they died of, say, an illness. Maybe Ramsay wouldn't have captured Lady Hornwood had Robb been in the North to act on it (or Roose to rein him in), but we're still talking about Ramsay here...

But I agree with you that the smallfolk would break quickly in an elephant charge (hell, they would probably break in a normal cavalry charge) and that they don't come close in skill to the GC. The GC are even way more experienced fighters than the average Westerosi knight after all.

Well as I said I hadn't read the Sworn Sword (but I know the whole 2nd Blackfyre Rebellion storyline anyway so no harm in looking in the spoiler tag) so that's something I didn't know before. Still, you're probably right and he probably only did it because he was already outnumbered badly.

As for Hornwood, yeah it could have happened whenever had both the lord and heir died at the same time. My point about it happening during wartime was that despite the fact that there was a massive war going on against the Lannister's, Ramsay's kidnapping of Donella was still considered very important. If that's during wartime, then situations like that would be explicitly mentioned by Robert, Ned, Renly, Varys or someone in the first book.

[Adam Yozza]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not sure Rolland Storm is dead but even if he is still alive he would be a prisoner on Dragonstone and thus a non-factor.

There is no reason to believe Selwyn Tarth is dead, though. The man is not exactly young and thus unlikely to participate in a battle. In addition, the policy of the Golden Company is not to kill but to capture nobles. Not to mention that Selwyn and Brienne apparently being rather close Targaryen cousins should make it very unlikely that they would want to see Lord Selwyn dead.

The problem with the idea that Stannis' foot were mostly Narrow Sea men is 

  Reveal hidden contents

that we know from Arianne 2 that Lady Mertyn's male descendants joined Renly and neither they (who could have been at Storm's End with the horse) nor their levies ever returned. If the Mertyn men had been at Bitterbridge one would expect that they had come back home in the meantime.

Thus I'm inclined to believe that some Stormlander levies must have teamed up with Stannis somehow. And the presence of Crownlanders among Stannis' army in ADwD also suggests that he was able to recruit some men from those regions before the Blackwater.

Lord Mathis Rowan most likely will join Prince Aegon. He should only need a little bit of nudging. That man seems to be an honest Targaryen loyalist. Either they will win his loyalty before they make their bid to Storm's End or afterwards should they capture him.

But there is no reason to believe that Tarly or Redwyne (who is right now preparing to face Euron and not very likely to survive that battle) have any reason to betray Mace. Both greatly profited from their part in the War of the Five Kings and the Redwynes and Tyrells are heavily intermarried (Olenna-Luthor and Paxter-Mina) making it very unlikely that there is going to be any betrayal there. Tarly has risen to great power at court under Tommen. With right now only Mace, Tarly, and Swyft (not for long) in the city Tarly has the chance to dominate the government of young King Tommen for years to come. He has no chance whatsoever to acquire the same amount of power under a King Aegon. Aegon has other friends and allies he has to reward first. Randyll Tarly might get some minor rewards, too, but Aegon is not likely to name him to his Small Council.

I expect Connington choosing a battlefield to confront the Tyrell host where they can make the best out of the terrain (which Connington should know much better than any of the Reach men), possibly using the elephants as a surprise. The Tyrell army would have to cross the Kingswood to get to Storm's End. Elephants are big, but they should be able to hide them somewhere among the trees, unleashing them in a devastating way when the Tyrells are least expecting them.

Well the castle fell and the garrison was presumably killed. Can't imagine the Lannisters leaving Rolland alive after he gave them so much trouble. But yeah, he's either dead or a prisoner. Either way he's out of action.

Tarth I said might be dead because the island Tarth was taken. You are right though that he may well be a prisoner. Once again, the point is that he isn't available to call the SL to arms.

The Mertyns nobles probably died with the cavalry at the Blackwater. As for the levies, they might have been killed by Tarly at Bitterbridge or forcibly conscripted into the Lannister-Tyrell army, as we know some house's forces were.

Stannis did indeed have men from the Crownlands with him at the Blackwater, and also in the North. I was generalizing. His 5000 infantry was made up of small house's like Chyttering, Farring and Massey that joined him from the mainland Crownlands, Myrish and Lysene sellswords and the forces of the narrow sea houses like Velaryon, Celtigar and Bar Emmon. Since the Narrow Sea houses were likely the biggest portion of that, I generalized.

Now that you mention it yeah, the Redwyne's don't seem as suspicious. I had Olenna confused as being from another house originally and I completely forgot Mace's sister. Still, I think Tarly might tip his banner to Aegon. He may have a seat on the Small Council, but I really don't think he likes serving Mace, and the chance to get out of that is something I think he'll jump at. Also, why wouldn't Aegon name him to the small council? He's one of the greatest military minds still alive and controls one of the larger portions of the Reach forces.

[Coolbeard the Exile]

5 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

Okay, I highly doubt that Jon Connington is that good. Sure, he was talented enough to rise high in the Golden Company, but he only spent five years with them. Before that, his most notable battle was the Battle of the Bells, and that was a defeat. He then spent twelve years raising Aegon. Even if he's been keeping physically fit and training with swords, it's not like he's been campaigning all this time.

Lol you can tell just by reading the book that he is one of the most dangerous people in asoiaf.

[Ser Scott Malkinson]

1 hour ago, BeastMaster64 said:

Lol you can tell just by reading the book that he is one of the most dangerous people in asoiaf.

Care to back this up? Because I can see how he is more dangerous than he was because he seems to have learned from his mistakes at the Battle of the Bells, but I don't see how he is one of the MOST dangerous characters.

[Coolbeard the Exile]

He was ever a capable warrior and commander. His years spent in exile have made him more cautious, more seasoned, and, according to Kevan Lannister, more dangerous. Tyrion Lannister considers Jon to be dangerous as well.

He served with the golden company for five years, rising quickly in the ranks to a place of honor at the right hand of Myles Toyne, the captain-general. 

He was/is obviously a bery good swordsman as he felt confident he could kill Robert Baratheon in sinngle combat.

He is full of hate and has an unstoppable driving force of puting Aegon on the Throne.

He dosn't care about honour anymore which could mean something nasty and sneaky.

He also killed Denys Arryn who was a good fighter.

[Adam Yozza]

1 hour ago, BeastMaster64 said:

He was ever a capable warrior and commander. His years spent in exile have made him more cautious, more seasoned, and, according to Kevan Lannister, more dangerous. Tyrion Lannister considers Jon to be dangerous as well.

He served with the golden company for five years, rising quickly in the ranks to a place of honor at the right hand of Myles Toyne, the captain-general. 

He was/is obviously a bery good swordsman as he felt confident he could kill Robert Baratheon in sinngle combat.

He is full of hate and has an unstoppable driving force of puting Aegon on the Throne.

He dosn't care about honour anymore which could mean something nasty and sneaky.

He also killed Denys Arryn who was a good fighter.

All good points and they do make him a dnagerous opponent to face. Especially when he's on his home turf with one of the most disciplines and skilled fighting forces at his back. But I don't see how it makes him the MOST dangerous.

He's a capable warrior: So was/is Arthur Dayne, Robert Baratheon Jaime, Barristan, Garlan....

He's a capable commander: So is Stannis, Robb, Ned, Tywin, Randyll....

He's cautious in his tactics: So was Tywin, so is Roose Bolton

He's seasoned: So is Randyll Tarly, Roose Bolton, Yohn Royce

Jon Snow became LC of the Night's Watch within two years. Ben Stark became First Ranger quite quickly and Mormont didn't take long to become LC.

He is full of hate: I could name a lot of characters who have this

He doesn't care about honour: The Bolton's, the Clegane's.....