US Elections - furniture shopping with disaster

[Ariadne23]

47 minutes ago, Inigima said:

I can't remember if we've talked about this here, but we should bear in mind that, contrary to popular perception, Trump's base isn't low-income white people. See: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/

But, from what I remember reading, Trump voters are disproportionately from areas that have been economically impacted, even if, as individuals, they are better off than average. Significantly. 

OTOH, for all I know, they could still be people who've lost a lot of wealth or income recently; perceptions are relative.

Side note: I've still never had any individual person tell me they're voting for Trump. I have a hard time envisioning the Trump voter.

[mormont]

56 minutes ago, Inigima said:

I can't remember if we've talked about this here, but we should bear in mind that, contrary to popular perception, Trump's base isn't low-income white people. See: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/

Yes. But education and income, while related, aren't the same thing. Trump's base is definitely non-college educated white males, with other white males and non-college educated white females buttressing that support.

The takeaway, for me, is that Trump's base represent the economically better off among non-college educated voters.

[Jace, Extat]

6 minutes ago, Ariadne23 said:

But, from what I remember reading, Trump voters are disproportionately from areas that have been economically impacted, even if, as individuals, they are better off than average. Significantly. 

OTOH, for all I know, they could still be people who've lost a lot of wealth or income recently; perceptions are relative.

Side note: I've still never had any individual person tell me they're voting for Trump. I have a hard time envisioning the Trump voter.

Wow! What paradise do you live in? And when can I move there? I live in fucking Starbucks, USA and I still see those cromagnan fuck every day.

[Fez]

5 minutes ago, Ariadne23 said:

Side note: I've still never had any individual person tell me they're voting for Trump. I have a hard time envisioning the Trump voter.

The one's I've met, its either because they hate Clinton to such an extent that they have to vote for her opponent or because they are Republicans who are reflexively voting for the Republican nominee without putting any thought into it.

I know there are people who are voting for Trump because they actually really like him, but they seem to be quite rare in Virginia. Which is borne out by the fact that Trump is now polling below 30% in the state.

[Martell Spy]

Republicans despondent that Trump threw away final debate
‘Down-ticket Republicans lost,' one GOP pollster said. 'They needed some help and got absolutely none.'

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/republicans-trump-debate-230071

[Inigima]

LOL Trump keeps bragging about winning meaningless online post-debate polls in the fever swamp but Breitbart's actually has him losing http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/donald-trump-declares-himself-debate-winner-loses-breitbart-poll

[Ariadne23]

22 minutes ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

Wow! What paradise do you live in? And when can I move there? I live in fucking Starbucks, USA and I still see those cromagnan fuck every day.

In one of the few states where the Orange one has a comfortable margin. I definitely see lawn signs here and there. But people don't talk about politics here. Maybe that is part of the phenomena.

[Maya Mia]

1 hour ago, Inigima said:

I can't remember if we've talked about this here, but we should bear in mind that, contrary to popular perception, Trump's base isn't low-income white people. See: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/

 

I don't usually comment on the politics thread, but this particular perception - that Trump supporters are uneducated - is completely untrue in what I see in my life.  The  vast majority of people I know, from personal and business have stated they are voting for Trump.  In my community (middle class, small coastal retirement town, Florida), there are numerous Trump/Pence yard signs, and I've not seen one Clinton/Kaine sign.

In my work community, which involves people from all over this county, educated people, which all have at minimum a BS/BA, many of which are chemists, are Trump supporters.  Not just voting for Trump, but actually agree with him.  I've been told recently the reasons:

- good business man, when I commented that he inherited his money, I was told "no he didn't, he is a self made man"  This from a guy who is a high level executive manager at an international company.

- he isn't politically correct - when I responded that personally, when I am about to say something, there are many words that I can choose to get my point across.  So why would I choose words that are hurtful?  The response was   humpf.

- Hillary is going to raise taxes on me.   when I responded so you are making millions, wow I'm in the wrong end of this industry, the response was no she is just like that asshole obama, she is going to raise my taxes.

- SCOTUS is too important, have to elect Trump.  My response was you really think Trump is going to nominate someone to further your interests?  No he will probably sell the nomination to the highest bidder.  The response was well that is possible, but I know Hillary will nominate someone who will destroy this country

- undocumented immigrants - best part of this is the business owners I know that state this reason - have hired undocumented immigrants themselves.  

And on and on and on.

My own son has said he is voting for Trump. At least my other son isn't.

[Future Null Infinity]

My fellow USA citizens, it seems that the facist Trump already tagged this elections "rigged" (which I think it's the first time like this happened in the history of the democratic USA) , I hope for the well-being of everyone that none of his trigger-happy supporters won't do anything foolish after the elections

[Equilibrium]

Having watched the debate, recorded in my own time, not about to get up in 3 AM just to watch it, I must say they were much more subdued this time, no Trump put downs (he tried one, it was bad and ineffective) or Hillary's witticisms (she tried a few, bad as usual)

I have to say this, as aside from climate change and foreign interventions I don't really care do Americans have right to carry military weapons or have abortions as long as they don't fuck the world up for everyone else. While climate change wasn't even mentioned, we know Trump is denier to the max, Hillary pays lip service but is not likely to do anything significant (fracking, Keystone XL, etc.) 

Foreign policy did come up. Hillary's insistence on no-fly zone is plain scary, a bad/worse scenario, Putin is bound to test the zone, if for anything so he can bill it somewhere else, it's a win/win for him, while US either stand by with billions of hardware needed to enforce it while Russian jets carry on, which would be epic embarrassment and waste of money or they down few of them and wait for inevitable retaliation.

I've been following Clinton's no fly zone argument for a year now, all the while current US administration and military dismissed the idea, and she lives in the fantasy world in which Russians won't fly (where they have as much right to fly, and more than US) just because she said so. Sanders warned of this and lately I have read Dr. Stein says it as well. 

How can you support her? Do you really think some Syrians are worth global conflict? And would no-fly zone even benefit those Syrians? Some will say Trump is this and Trump is that, you don't have to support Trump either. Johnson not knowing what is Aleppo makes him far less likely he will start WW3 over it, so that is a plus in my book, and Dr. Stein really seems nice and she really cares about the environment(she is not anti-vax, those are lies, check famous mainstream fact checkers, like snoopes, they all say it it a lie). 

[Fez]

10 minutes ago, Maya Mia said:

 

I don't usually comment on the politics thread, but this particular perception - that Trump supporters are uneducated - is completely untrue in what I see in my life.  The  vast majority of people I know, from personal and business have stated they are voting for Trump.  In my community (middle class, small coastal retirement town, Florida), there are numerous Trump/Pence yard signs, and I've not seen one Clinton/Kaine sign.

And roughly 5% of African Americans are going to vote for Trump, there will always be exceptions. But Clinton is winning among college-educated white women, which Democrats haven't done in decades, and is roughly tied among college-educated white men. Trump is winning among non-college educated white women (though by a much smaller margin than usual) and by non-college educated white men (by a larger margin than usual). 

In 2015, the Census found that 32.8% of white Americans had at least a college degree, and that 67.2% of white Americans did not. Trump is losing or tied with the first group, which is smaller, and winning among the second group, which is larger. And is minority support is negligible. Ergo, the majority of Trump's supporters are white Americans without a college degree.

 

On a separate note, I've seen the yard sign thing mentioned a lot; the reason for the disparity is that several elections ago, Democrats made the decision to stop investing in yard signs. There's been a large body of research showing they had no effect on levels of support or turnout, so the money is better spent on other things. A few Democratic campaign operatives still like yard signs, so they sometimes show up in smaller races, but not in the national races. There are still some signs, but they are hard to find. Most Republican campaign operatives also accept this research, and 2016 was supposed to be the year they stopped using them so much either; but, Trump being Trump, that didn't happen.

[James Arryn]

17 minutes ago, Maya Mia said:

 

I don't usually comment on the politics thread, but this particular perception - that Trump supporters are uneducated - is completely untrue in what I see in my life.  The  vast majority of people I know, from personal and business have stated they are voting for Trump.  In my community (middle class, small coastal retirement town, Florida), there are numerous Trump/Pence yard signs, and I've not seen one Clinton/Kaine sign.

In my work community, which involves people from all over this county, educated people, which all have at minimum a BS/BA, many of which are chemists, are Trump supporters.  Not just voting for Trump, but actually agree with him.  I've been told recently the reasons:

- good business man, when I commented that he inherited his money, I was told "no he didn't, he is a self made man"  This from a guy who is a high level executive manager at an international company.

- he isn't politically correct - when I responded that personally, when I am about to say something, there are many words that I can choose to get my point across.  So why would I choose words that are hurtful?  The response was   humpf.

- Hillary is going to raise taxes on me.   when I responded so you are making millions, wow I'm in the wrong end of this industry, the response was no she is just like that asshole obama, she is going to raise my taxes.

- SCOTUS is too important, have to elect Trump.  My response was you really think Trump is going to nominate someone to further your interests?  No he will probably sell the nomination to the highest bidder.  The response was well that is possible, but I know Hillary will nominate someone who will destroy this country

- undocumented immigrants - best part of this is the business owners I know that state this reason - have hired undocumented immigrants themselves.  

And on and on and on.

My own son has said he is voting for Trump. At least my other son isn't.

Sell the Trump son!

[IheartIheartTesla]

5 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

What gets me is this:

US has a population of about 350 million, give or take. 

Figure about 100 million, give or take as not being eligible to vote: too young, in prison, medical reasons, things like that.

So, 250 million prospective voters.  Of these, maybe another 100 million that could vote, but just don't care.  (Trump appears to be counting on this demographic.)

150 million people who can and do vote.  But, maybe 30 million people, total, both parties voted in the primaries.  One in five, again with a bit of give and take. More, in absolute terms, only about half (?) of the primary votes went to Clinton and Trump.  And those contests, by and large, were 'Party Only.'

So we have around 15 million people to thank for this years fiasco of an election, or roughly 1/10th of the total number of people who can and do vote. 

Which makes me wonder...what of the other 120 million likely voters who did not or could not vote in the primaries?  Given the chance, and the motivation, and the general disgust with both parties...

 

Just a couple of comments, the current US population is closer to 320 million rather than 350 million (of legal citizens that is). Of those, at least in 2012, the number of eligible voters was ~ 218 million, and out of those 146 million were registered to vote and about 126 million finally voted. So we have about 67% participation in elections of those who are eligible, and as mentioned before, ~90% of registered voters end up voting.

Note that this is why I find the 200 million figure quite suspicious. It is probably some excel spreadsheet mistake or an overzealous extrapolation. It is absolutely true that there is a lot of room for growth amongst non-college whites for someone like Trump, but its not clear at all that a surge occurred this year (if anything,  Democrats may have a slight advantage because of minority enrollment)

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Clinton smoked Trump. I know people are pointing to Trump refusing to say he will accept the outcome and the "nasty woman" remark as the things that will sink Trump, but I actually think his comments on nuclear warfare are what will do him in the most. And it's such an easy attack ad for the Clinton campaign.

 

Also, I saw something really funny this morning. Morning Joe juxtaposed Trump's "I'm not a puppet, you're the puppet" comment with Towelie's "I'm not a towel, you're the towel" comment to Cartman. Had me in stitches. 

[Jaxom 1974]

1 hour ago, mormont said:

Yes. But education and income, while related, aren't the same thing. Trump's base is definitely non-college educated white males, with other white males and non-college educated white females buttressing that support.

The takeaway, for me, is that Trump's base represent the economically better off among non-college educated voters.

 

1 hour ago, Fez said:

The one's I've met, its either because they hate Clinton to such an extent that they have to vote for her opponent or because they are Republicans who are reflexively voting for the Republican nominee without putting any thought into it.

I know there are people who are voting for Trump because they actually really like him, but they seem to be quite rare in Virginia. Which is borne out by the fact that Trump is now polling below 30% in the state.

All Trump voters I know, and I had to delete myself out of a Facebook group made up of some fraternity brothers last night because I couldn't take it anymore from them, are college educated white men with little to no financial hardships.  What seems to be their defining reason for their support is the Supreme Court, specifically because Hillary is going to take their guns.  I don't think they care what, or who, Trump puts to the SC, provided the Second Amendment is up help and/or strengthened.  As Trump likely could care less one way or another about that in reality, it doesn't have to be a major plank in any SC nomination he makes as long as the judge is pro Second Amendment. 

Another bit from these guys is that they do actually believe Hillary is a bad person, but can only seem to reference the talking points and old references. No substance and a refusal to look at evidence to the contrary because it's all liberal propaganda and nonsources, but their tin foil hat ones, are trustworthy. 

[sologdin]

1 hour ago, Inigima said:

LOL Trump keeps bragging about winning meaningless online post-debate polls in the fever swamp but Breitbart's actually has him losing http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/donald-trump-declares-himself-debate-winner-loses-breitbart-poll

the fugliest bit therein is the 'for the movement' language.  that's old fascist talk.

1 hour ago, Maya Mia said:

In my work community, which involves people from all over this county, educated people, which all have at minimum a BS/BA, many of which are chemists, are Trump supporters.  Not just voting for Trump, but actually agree with him.  I've been told recently the reasons:

one of our paralegals is a trumpite.  he's got a BA, and is renaissancey in his interests.  for him it's very all-that-is-solid-melts-into-air.  

1 hour ago, Equilibrium said:

 Do you really think some Syrians are worth global conflict? 

i hear you regarding the US use of force abroad, which has mostly been unlawful during the cold war and after.  however: perhaps not the right way to argue it, to ask whether a people is 'worthy' of global conflict. am not interested in sacrificing a group, say, in exchange for alleged global peace.  just let us immolate this marginal group and everything will be peachy is gross, yes?

[DunderMifflin]

2 hours ago, Ariadne23 said:

 

Side note: I've still never had any individual person tell me they're voting for Trump. I have a hard time envisioning the Trump voter.

I know or have met somewhere between 10-20. Most of them claim they are doing the voting for lesser of two evils thing.

There doesn't seem to be any sort of profile though based on my anecdotal data

[OldGimletEye]

6 minutes ago, DunderMifflin said:

I know or have met somewhere between 10-20. Most of them claim they are doing the voting for lesser of two evils thing.

There doesn't seem to be any sort of profile though based on my anecdotal data

The unifying theme of Trump supporters, just as it is with the Republican Party, is white resentment.

Back in the day, the Demoractic Party had a Dixiecrat problem. Now the Republican Party has a Dixiecrat problem.

The Republican Party needs to deal with it's Dixiecrat Problem. But, I'm not hopeful that it will.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

In May, two of my partners made a bet at the partners meeting.  One partner here in NY bet that Hillary Clinton would win 60% of the popular vote.  The other, in Chicago took the other side of the bet.  The stakes were to fund a bowling party for the associates in our department.  I was entirely certain that this party would be in NY.  While I still think it is probably going to be here, I am not entirely certain anymore.

[DanteGabriel]

2 hours ago, Ariadne23 said:

 

Side note: I've still never had any individual person tell me they're voting for Trump. I have a hard time envisioning the Trump voter.

I know a few. The one I know best is a former cop, now software release manager, who hates Clinton and his main issue is guns. Otherwise he's upper middle class and fairly geeky.