The COTF sent Bran's assassin

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

I think this one is pretty obvious, and I don't know why more people don't see it, but here we go.

SOMEONE sent an assassin to kill Bran in AGOT. At first we are led to believe it was likely Cersei/Jaime, but we later learn it was not. Tyrion and Jaime both blame Joffrey, but this answer is super unsatisfying to a lot of readers (including myself), and we have no real confirmation that Joffrey actually did it. So let's reexamine what happened with this super simple line of logic:

The most important aspect of the assassination is the Valyrian steel dagger. Cat and Ser Rodrik quickly and correctly deduce that the dagger could not have belonged to the assassin, as it was too fine a weapon for a commoner to own. The direct consequence is that Cat blames the Lannisters (because of the letter from LF about Jon Arryn) and goes to KL. There are a few aspects of this assassination that are ridiculous, but they go unquestioned by the characters and some readers. Why use a fancy weapon (that implicates someone else, e.g. the Lannisters) instead of a plain one? Why use a dagger at all? Why not just smother Bran with a pillow if you want his secrets kept to the grave? Picture the following conversation. Person 1: "Hey, that kid who fell out a window died in his coma last night." Person 2: "I'm not the least bit surprised by this news. I don't suspect any foul play at all." That would be reasonable. Why did the assassin think no one would be in the room? Everyone important in the castle likely knew that Cat had not left Bran's side and would be in the room (including Joffrey). Why did he leave the bag of silver behind in the stables where he was supposedly sleeping instead of keeping the silver on his person to escape as quickly as possible?

So you can see, we have a few mysterious questions with an obvious answer: THE ASSASSINATION WAS MEANT TO FAIL! There is simply no other explanation for all these questions. Whoever planned the attempt knew it would fail, knew the Valyrian dagger would be found, and knew Cat would act to find the truth (it is also very likely that this nefarious party knew about the LF letter and knew that Cat would blame the Lannisters). So who sent the assassin? Well, that's actually pretty easy to deduce. There is only one person who could have known for sure the attempt would fail: Summer. Summer tore out the assassin's throat, thus saving Bran's (and Cat's) life. No one else could have known it would go down that way. Now, I hear you thinking, "But 40 Thousand Skeletons, Summer is a fucking wolf! He can't plan and then foil fake assassinations." Exactly. But you know who could? The COTF and Bloodraven, who have the ability to control animals by skinchanging them.

So there you go folks, the COTF sent the assassin in order to manipulate Cat. This is one small aspect of my views on the big picture of the plot regarding the COTF and LF, which I don't want to really expand on too much in this thread, but I want to know people's thoughts on this theory in particular. What do you think?

[YOVMO]

40K I have to tell you: I want to believe this. I want to believe it so badly. It would, if true, be like finding a missing jigsaw puzzle to about 3 theories I have. I want to believe it so badly that I am, unfortunately, not in a position to analyze your theory as stands. The truth is, I think it is excellent but the eye sees what it wants to see and you haven't fleshed this out. Textual clues, detail how, motive why.....I think this thing has serious legs but it just needs more

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

3 minutes ago, YOVMO said:

40K I have to tell you: I want to believe this. I want to believe it so badly. It would, if true, be like finding a missing jigsaw puzzle to about 3 theories I have. I want to believe it so badly that I am, unfortunately, not in a position to analyze your theory as stands. The truth is, I think it is excellent but the eye sees what it wants to see and you haven't fleshed this out. Textual clues, detail how, motive why.....I think this thing has serious legs but it just needs more

That's a good point. Tell you what YOVMO, since you want to believe it so badly, I will flesh it out some more. I have lots more details, parts of the big theory, evidence from text, etc. but it will take me at least like an hour to type it up and I'm not going to get to it before I go to bed tonight. Hopefully I'll have some time tomorrow, and then you can analyze my more detailed version.

[YOVMO]

6 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

That's a good point. Tell you what YOVMO, since you want to believe it so badly, I will flesh it out some more. I have lots more details, parts of the big theory, evidence from text, etc. but it will take me at least like an hour to type it up and I'm not going to get to it before I go to bed tonight. Hopefully I'll have some time tomorrow, and then you can analyze my more detailed version.

Sounds like a plan. Oh to have the time to flesh out all these ideas! Weekends come and weekends go. But I have to say I like it! I like it a lot

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

26 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I think this one is pretty obvious, and I don't know why more people don't see it, but here we go.

SOMEONE sent an assassin to kill Bran in AGOT. At first we are led to believe it was likely Cersei/Jaime, but we later learn it was not. Tyrion and Jaime both blame Joffrey, but this answer is super unsatisfying to a lot of readers (including myself), and we have no real confirmation that Joffrey actually did it. So let's reexamine what happened with this super simple line of logic:

The most important aspect of the assassination is the Valyrian steel dagger. Cat and Ser Rodrik quickly and correctly deduce that the dagger could not have belonged to the assassin, as it was too fine a weapon for a commoner to own. The direct consequence is that Cat blames the Lannisters (because of the letter from LF about Jon Arryn) and goes to KL. There are a few aspects of this assassination that are ridiculous, but they go unquestioned by the characters and some readers. Why use a fancy weapon (that implicates someone else, e.g. the Lannisters) instead of a plain one? Why use a dagger at all? Why not just smother Bran with a pillow if you want his secrets kept to the grave? Picture the following conversation. Person 1: "Hey, that kid who fell out a window died in his coma last night." Person 2: "I'm not the least bit surprised by this news. I don't suspect any foul play at all." That would be reasonable. Why did the assassin think no one would be in the room? Everyone important in the castle likely knew that Cat had not left Bran's side and would be in the room (including Joffrey). Why did he leave the bag of silver behind in the stables where he was supposedly sleeping instead of keeping the silver on his person to escape as quickly as possible?

So you can see, we have a few mysterious questions with an obvious answer: THE ASSASSINATION WAS MEANT TO FAIL! There is simply no other explanation for all these questions. Whoever planned the attempt knew it would fail, knew the Valyrian dagger would be found, and knew Cat would act to find the truth (it is also very likely that this nefarious party knew about the LF letter and knew that Cat would blame the Lannisters). So who sent the assassin? Well, that's actually pretty easy to deduce. There is only one person who could have known for sure the attempt would fail: Summer. Summer tore out the assassin's throat, thus saving Bran's (and Cat's) life. No one else could have known it would go down that way. Now, I hear you thinking, "But 40 Thousand Skeletons, Summer is a fucking wolf! He can't plan and then foil fake assassinations." Exactly. But you know who could? The COTF and Bloodraven, who have the ability to control animals by skinchanging them.

So there you go folks, the COTF sent the assassin in order to manipulate Cat. This is one small aspect of my views on the big picture of the plot regarding the COTF and LF, which I don't want to really expand on too much in this thread, but I want to know people's thoughts on this theory in particular. What do you think?

The simple explanation is Joff is young (13 I think?). He is stupid. He would not think to have the would be assassin smother Bran rather than cut his throat. Joff probably heard people talking about how they should put Bran out of his misery. I also think Tyrion's ltitle talk (and slaps) about going to give the Starks his condolences was part of it as well.

How would the CotF know about the LF letter?

I agree that the situation is suspicious. But at this point I believe there is more reason to think it was Joff rather than the CotF. 

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

5 minutes ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

The simple explanation is Joff is young (13 I think?). He is stupid. He would not think to have the would be assassin smother Bran rather than cut his throat. Joff probably heard people talking about how they should put Bran out of his misery. I also think Tyrion's ltitle talk (and slaps) about going to give the Starks his condolences was part of it as well.

How would the CotF know about the LF letter?

I agree that the situation is suspicious. But at this point I believe there is more reason to think it was Joff rather than the CotF. 

OK, yes the explanation that we are given is technically a valid explanation, but it is a super shitty one (in my opinion). And it is such a huge important part of the plot that I find it hard to believe the answer is just that Joffrey did it, and there are no implications, case closed. The entire plot would have been way different otherwise. Cat wouldn't have gone to KL, which led to Ned trusting LF enough to get killed and Cat capturing Tyrion. The whole story would be way different, and I personally think GRRM doesn't use coincidence (Joff randomly deciding to kill Bran in this case) as a plot device. He only pretends to use coincidences to disguise puppet masters like the COTF. Like I said above, I'll flesh this out some more in the next couple days when I have some time. I didn't present a ton of evidence in the OP.

[Maxxine]

I'm personally fine with Joffrey having planned the assasination. I think it explains everything especially why it was so poorly done. It makes sense to me that Joffrey wouldn't think through the whole plot thus why he used that knife. But I understand a lot of people find it underwhelming. I'm intrugued by this theory. It's something new & that's rare considering the lack of new book. But I have two issues with it. First what's the why behind it. What reasons do the children have to manipulate Cat into leaving WF. Second, I think the mystery of the assasin is past the point where it is relevant. I mean at this point it doesn't really matter who sent the assasin does it (imo it barely mattered when it was revealed in Swords. I actually missed it the first time I read the books). What effect could it have on the plot? I guess if bran finds it was the children he could feel some type of way about it but Idk that's a stretch to me. 

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

1 minute ago, Maxxine said:

I'm personally fine with Joffrey having planned the assasination. I think it explains everything especially why it was so poorly done. It makes sense to me that Joffrey wouldn't think through the whole plot thus why he used that knife. But I understand a lot of people find it underwhelming. I'm intrugued by this theory. It's something new & that's rare considering the lack of new book. But I have two issues with it. First what's the why behind it. What reasons do the children have to manipulate Cat into leaving WF. Second, I think the mystery of the assasin is past the point where it is relevant. I mean at this point it doesn't really matter who sent the assasin does it (imo it barely mattered when it was revealed in Swords. I actually missed it the first time I read the books). What effect could it have on the plot? I guess if bran finds it was the children he could feel some type of way about it but Idk that's a stretch to me. 

I think you'll be convinced when I end up posting the full giant list of details and evidence. But to summarize, it may not matter to the characters who sent the assassin (or it may), but if definitely matters to the readers for understanding the big picture and WTF the children are doing.

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

27 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

OK, yes the explanation that we are given is technically a valid explanation, but it is a super shitty one (in my opinion). And it is such a huge important part of the plot that I find it hard to believe the answer is just that Joffrey did it, and there are no implications, case closed. The entire plot would have been way different otherwise. Cat wouldn't have gone to KL, which led to Ned trusting LF enough to get killed and Cat capturing Tyrion. The whole story would be way different, and I personally think GRRM doesn't use coincidence (Joff randomly deciding to kill Bran in this case) as a plot device. He only pretends to use coincidences to disguise puppet masters like the COTF. Like I said above, I'll flesh this out some more in the next couple days when I have some time. I didn't present a ton of evidence in the OP.

Is it coincidence or is GRRM giving us the first indication that these direwolves are special? Yes we have some small clues earlier (howling and such) but this is a big moment in the relationship between Summer and Bran. 

GRRM uses coincidences all the time. Tyrion and Catelyn at the same hotel at the same time, Sansa and Joff stumbling on Arya and Micah, Catelyn and Brienne are the only 2 in the tent when Renly is killed.... Just a few off the top of my head.

[cgrav]

Running with the "meant to fail" idea, I think that points most directly to Littlefinger. If I recall, his involvement was ruled out by the clumsiness of the whole thing, but that conclusion rests on the presumption that Littlefinger seriously wanted it to be successful. If Littlefinger's goal was to get Catelyn riled and rash, then the plot need not succeed. If Littlefinger did orchestrate it, I would imagine the idea was to align with Cersei's plan to get Jaime elevated to Hand, by giving the Starks a very good reason not to accept the King's offer.

Even if Joffrey did ultimately give the order, what assassins does a pampered royal child know? Joffrey could barely bring himself to look at commoners, much less consort with them privately. The instruction would have to have gone through someone else. My guesses are Littlefinger, Varys, or the Hound. The Hound killed one kid at Joff's behest, but that was not an assassination plot requiring weeks of travel (pretty sure timeline would rule that out). Varys would probably just walk off and do nothing (also timeline issues). Littlefinger would be like "way ahead of you little buddy".

I'll have to do some timeline research to see who was where when it happened, but I'm pretty sure the royal party was still en route to KL, since Bran saw Cat on a ship in his vision and she was trying to get there first. 

[Makk]

I have always disliked the Joffery explanation, it's the only part of the story through 5 books so far that doesn't feel grounded and logical to me. Littlefinger was my early guess, and I still like that better, but I think GRRM has pretty much concluded it was Joffery.

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

20 minutes ago, cgrav said:

Running with the "meant to fail" idea, I think that points most directly to Littlefinger. If I recall, his involvement was ruled out by the clumsiness of the whole thing, but that conclusion rests on the presumption that Littlefinger seriously wanted it to be successful. If Littlefinger's goal was to get Catelyn riled and rash, then the plot need not succeed. If Littlefinger did orchestrate it, I would imagine the idea was to align with Cersei's plan to get Jaime elevated to Hand, by giving the Starks a very good reason not to accept the King's offer.

Even if Joffrey did ultimately give the order, what assassins does a pampered royal child know? Joffrey could barely bring himself to look at commoners, much less consort with them privately. The instruction would have to have gone through someone else. My guesses are Littlefinger, Varys, or the Hound. The Hound killed one kid at Joff's behest, but that was not an assassination plot requiring weeks of travel (pretty sure timeline would rule that out). Varys would probably just walk off and do nothing (also timeline issues). Littlefinger would be like "way ahead of you little buddy".

I'll have to do some timeline research to see who was where when it happened, but I'm pretty sure the royal party was still en route to KL, since Bran saw Cat on a ship in his vision and she was trying to get there first. 

Royal party was 8 days gone. 

Quote

Ned and the girls were eight days gone when Maester Luwin came to her one night in Bran’s sickroom, carrying a reading lamp and the books of account.

Good luck trying to work out the logistics....

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

7 hours ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Is it coincidence or is GRRM giving us the first indication that these direwolves are special? Yes we have some small clues earlier (howling and such) but this is a big moment in the relationship between Summer and Bran. 

GRRM uses coincidences all the time. Tyrion and Catelyn at the same hotel at the same time, Sansa and Joff stumbling on Arya and Micah, Catelyn and Brienne are the only 2 in the tent when Renly is killed.... Just a few off the top of my head.

But the main example you give there, Tyrion and Cat running into each other, I don't think is a coincidence, so that's actually a perfect example of George pretending to use coincidence. I'll elaborate when I flesh out the OP this weekend.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

6 hours ago, Makk said:

I have always disliked the Joffery explanation, it's the only part of the story through 5 books so far that doesn't feel grounded and logical to me. Littlefinger was my early guess, and I still like that better, but I think GRRM has pretty much concluded it was Joffery.

No, GRRM said we would find out the answer in book 3. I think he lied. Lots of fans claim that GRRM doesn't lie to us, and I think they are adorable. I think he was trying to not make it obvious and reveal the whole big picture by saying "the answer is there in book 1, just read harder". How would LF know the attempt would fail?

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

6 hours ago, cgrav said:

Running with the "meant to fail" idea, I think that points most directly to Littlefinger. If I recall, his involvement was ruled out by the clumsiness of the whole thing, but that conclusion rests on the presumption that Littlefinger seriously wanted it to be successful. If Littlefinger's goal was to get Catelyn riled and rash, then the plot need not succeed. If Littlefinger did orchestrate it, I would imagine the idea was to align with Cersei's plan to get Jaime elevated to Hand, by giving the Starks a very good reason not to accept the King's offer.

Even if Joffrey did ultimately give the order, what assassins does a pampered royal child know? Joffrey could barely bring himself to look at commoners, much less consort with them privately. The instruction would have to have gone through someone else. My guesses are Littlefinger, Varys, or the Hound. The Hound killed one kid at Joff's behest, but that was not an assassination plot requiring weeks of travel (pretty sure timeline would rule that out). Varys would probably just walk off and do nothing (also timeline issues). Littlefinger would be like "way ahead of you little buddy".

I'll have to do some timeline research to see who was where when it happened, but I'm pretty sure the royal party was still en route to KL, since Bran saw Cat on a ship in his vision and she was trying to get there first. 

How would any of those suspects know the attempt would fail?

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

But the main example you give there, Tyrion and Cat running into each other, I don't think is a coincidence, so that's actually a perfect example of George pretending to use coincidence. I'll elaborate when I flesh out the OP this weekend.

Two of our most important characters happen to be at the same inn at the same time a short while after the assassination attempt is not a coincidence? What do you call it? 

Also I just thought of another one. When Stannis attacks the wildlings just as Mance is about to figure Jon out. Another total coincidence. 

I think this example, along with the others, is more coincidental than a flawed assassination attempt by a stupid, spoiled teenager.

[Maester of Valyria]

OP, consider me intrigued here. I always appreciate a well-reasoned COTF theory, even if it turns out not to be to my taste. I await your full theory with anticipation!

Just a quick request: if you start a new thread for it could you please post a link up here so it doesn't get buried? Cheers.

[cgrav]

4 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

How would any of those suspects know the attempt would fail?

If it was Littlefinger - I think that's the only non-Joff suspect could that fit the timeline - then I'd say he didn't care if it was successful. Killing Bran would not have been the point. The point would have been to frame the Lannisters and cause Ned to refuse the King's offer of Handship. LF didn't want more players at court, especially not someone as righteous and stubborn as Ned. To achieve that end, the attempt need not be successful or even targeted at Bran. All he had to do was leave a bag of incriminating silver and make an attempt and killing someone. 

I'm not sold on Littlefinger's guilt, but it seems the most plausible to me outside of the official Joffrey interpretation. 

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

54 minutes ago, cgrav said:

If it was Littlefinger - I think that's the only non-Joff suspect could that fit the timeline - then I'd say he didn't care if it was successful. Killing Bran would not have been the point. The point would have been to frame the Lannisters and cause Ned to refuse the King's offer of Handship. LF didn't want more players at court, especially not someone as righteous and stubborn as Ned. To achieve that end, the attempt need not be successful or even targeted at Bran. All he had to do was leave a bag of incriminating silver and make an attempt and killing someone. 

I'm not sold on Littlefinger's guilt, but it seems the most plausible to me outside of the official Joffrey interpretation. 

So LF was able to do all this even though he was in KL?

[cgrav]

Maybe? I'm sure it was no mystery why the King was riding north with his entourage. Would not have been too hard to stick a hanger-on in the crowd. 

Like I said, I'm not sold on it. Logistically, Joffrey is in the best position, it just doesn't seem to fit his character. We also know that the knife was, indeed, Littlefinger's because we see him with it later on. Only an idiot would arm an assassin with their own dagger, and Littlefinger is no idiot. Plain sight obfuscation. 

Now, what intrigues me about this is the assassin's line "You weren't s'posed to be here... nobody was supposed to be here". Is he saying that Bran wasn't supposed to be there, either? That would make sense if Littlefinger arranged some misdeeds ahead of time, assuming that Cat and the children would all be gone. The obvious implication is that the assassin was there to do something other than kill Bran. Maybe Lysa wanted her Myrish lens back?