BloodRider Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 I voted on Friday. There were long lines again, but as someone pointed out to me, if you have the time and ability to wait in line early in the process, you should go ahead and do it, because there are those who do not have a flexible schedule, and can not work around when they can vote. And since they have made early voting more difficult in our state - for totally non-racist non-classist reasons! I went ahead and took the hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 5 hours ago, lokisnow said: I really hope the ABC poll is a legit result and is not just herding by the pollster, right now is exactly when we would expect to see herding occur which could result in a big polling miss. because clintons margin in that poll is twelve points, twelve point margin by the presidential candidate is the threshold where democrats get a 25% chance of winning a majority in the House of Representatives. note, that is pathetic, but this is because the gerrymandering map software used in 2010, tested all the districts republicans drew were software drawn at such a granular level and ran through simulations and tests until they successfully simulated the gerrymander to withstand a twenty point wave, so realistically democrats need to win 60-40 in the house vote to earn a majority. Note, democrats wave year in 2006 was only 56-44 vote and they got 60+ seats, this year will likely be more than that and democrats will be lucky to get twenty seats. also note this is entirely obamas fault for his total abandonment of the rest of the national and state democrat parties after getting elected. The massive disenfranchisement and theft of democracy from 2010 probably will be sufficient to even withstand an extreme outlier event like trump. Depressing but true. To my understanding, there has never been any evidence of the top pollsters, or any of the live caller pollsters really, herding their results. That is a phenomenon of robocall and internet panel pollsters trying to better match the live call pollsters. Also, the live call pollsters still vary in their estimates of Clinton's lead, going between +7 and +15; which is a pretty wide variance. Plus there is IBD/TIPP out there on that island with the LA Times and Raz, showing a +2 Trump lead. As for gerrymandering, it has been proven that a 59-41 average district spread is the ideal goal. However, there are almost no states where Republicans were able to get districts that favorable on average. They did use computers to do the best they could of course, so there probably aren't any dummy-manders (except for Arkansas; never forget that that is a map that Democrats drew); but Democrats also don't need a 20 point win to take the House. General consensus is that if Democrats win by 8 points they have a realistic chance of taking the House, and if they win 10 points they almost certainly will take it. But it also depends on how Democrats do in the various states. Charlie Cook rates 201 Republican and 177 Democratic seats as solid, but the remaining 57 are winnable by either side. It would take a real wave for Democrats to win most of the 13 likely Republican seats, but the remaining 44 seats would probably all go Democratic with an 8 point national win. Which would give Democrats a 221-214 House majority. Democrats would probably still lose a few of those 44 races at an 8 point national margin, maybe enough to not take the majority on its own, so the question would be how many of the other 13 races or any of the 201 solid seats could they pick off. But by the time you get to a 10 point national margin, its probably not much of a question anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldGimletEye Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 Supply Side Disaster : Kansas Edition Stephen Moore was adviser to Sam Brownback. Stephen Moore is now an adviser to Donald Trump. Stephen Moore is one of those "best people" that Trump talks about, evidently. http://yaelabouhalkah.com/2016/10/new-kansas-jobs-report-is-universally-bad-sorry-mr-brownback/ Quote They show, once again, that Gov. Sam Brownback’s recent tour touting his 2012 income tax cuts as a ray of “sunshine” for the state’s employment market is a total sham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 10 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said: Supply Side Disaster : Kansas Edition Stephen Moore was advisor to Sam Brownback. Stephen Moore is now an adviser to Donald Trump. Stephen Moore is one of those "best people" that Trump talks about, evidently. http://yaelabouhalkah.com/2016/10/new-kansas-jobs-report-is-universally-bad-sorry-mr-brownback/ I've read about Kansas and it is ugly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldGimletEye Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 2 minutes ago, Nasty LongRider said: I've read about Kansas and it is ugly! Should we say,"Brownie, ya did a heck of job there!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 Just now, OldGimletEye said: Should we say,"Brownie, ya did a heck of job there!" Of course we should! Sam was a puppet of the Koch Brothers the fortunes of Kansas he just about smothered Taxes low but job loss sure high Public schools bad now we cry Koch's belch, say, lets find another! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldGimletEye Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 Just now, Nasty LongRider said: Of course we should! Sam was a puppet of the Koch Brothers the fortunes of Kansas he just about smothered Taxes low but job loss sure high Public schools bad now we cry Koch's belch, say, lets find another! LOL. But in fairness to Brownback, his tax plan would have worked, but it wasn't conservative enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 1 minute ago, OldGimletEye said: LOL. But in fairness to Brownback, his tax plan would have worked, but it wasn't conservative enough. In all fairness, the plan is working just fine. It's just the worstest bullshit of a plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Another Trump +3 poll out of Texas. (I can't help but smile at one poster's assertion that their vote would never count). Hillary within 3 in Texas is pretty consistent with Hillary +10-+12 nationwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokisnow Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 2 hours ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said: Another Trump +3 poll out of Texas. (I can't help but smile at one poster's assertion that their vote would never count). Hillary within 3 in Texas is pretty consistent with Hillary +10-+12 nationwide. Real clear politics electoral map now shows Texas as a gray toss up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 3 minutes ago, lokisnow said: Real clear politics electoral map now shows Texas as a gray toss up I want to see the kind of madness it'd take Trump to win if Texas went Democrat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 1 minute ago, Pony Queen Jace said: I want to see the kind of madness it'd take Trump to win if Texas went Democrat. I take that as a challenge! Trump without Texas wins with Romney 2012 + Iowa + Ohio + Nevada + Florida + Pennsylvania + Wisconsin + Colorado + New Hampshire. That's a bare 270-268 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Just now, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said: I take that as a challenge! Trump without Texas wins with Romney 2012 + Iowa + Ohio + Nevada + Florida + Pennsylvania + Wisconsin + Colorado + New Hampshire. That's a bare 270-268 map. Love it! I'm so optimistic about this election that it's inversely stressing me out because I'm struggling to fight expectations. I want to believe the polls and statements from learned individuals, but I'm so terrified of seeing that orange stained bastard... anything! Anything but flipping the senate at least seems like a lost opportunity with this dismal midterm outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrl6199 Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Just now, Pony Queen Jace said: Love it! I'm so optimistic about this election that it's inversely stressing me out because I'm struggling to fight expectations. I want to believe the polls and statements from learned individuals, but I'm so terrified of seeing that orange stained bastard... anything! Anything but flipping the senate at least seems like a lost opportunity with this dismal midterm outlook. I take it your a trump supporter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Just now, Wrl6199 said: I take it your a trump supporter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrl6199 Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 I thought so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boris the Blade Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 John Oliver is tearing it up again tonight. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Republican Women Feel Betrayed by Their Party They won’t soon forget it—even after Trump is finished. http://www.slate.com/articles/double_x/cover_story/2016/10/the_anguish_of_being_a_gop_woman_in_the_age_of_trump.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Oh, and the crosstabs on that Texas poll are interesting too: men: Trump +6women: Trump +1age 18-29: Clinton +21age 30-44: Clinton +8age 45-64: Trump +14age 65+: Trump +22whites: Trump +37blacks: Clinton +78Hispanics: Clinton +30Dems: Clinton +89GOP: Trump +77Indies: Trump +19 That's a much smaller gender gap than I expected. Hillary might still have room to grow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Walker Texas Ranger Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 26 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said: Oh, and the crosstabs on that Texas poll are interesting too: men: Trump +6women: Trump +1age 18-29: Clinton +21age 30-44: Clinton +8age 45-64: Trump +14age 65+: Trump +22whites: Trump +37blacks: Clinton +78Hispanics: Clinton +30Dems: Clinton +89GOP: Trump +77Indies: Trump +19 That's a much smaller gender gap than I expected. Hillary might still have room to grow. It's interesting that Hispanics is only Clinton +30, but anecdotally, there are a lot of Mexican American's who basically say, "I'm a citizen, he was only talking about illegals." Not to mention the South and Central Americans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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