Slick Mongoose Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 15 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said: So according to CNN Clinton is nationally up by +5%. That seems like, given margin for error, a close run thing. But it is the state by state polls that actually matter. What's the picture there? According to RCP, Clinton is at 262 EV's in states where she is +6 or more. By contrast, Trump is at 126. Those 262 votes don't include Minnesota (10 EV's), a solid blue state which for some reason hasn't had any polling for a month. It's pretty much done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 9 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Well...holy shit. Talk at me, Bear. What's this gonna amount to? We talkin' Season 2 of House of Cards level scandal here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jasta11 Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 27 minutes ago, Pony Queen Jace said: Talk at me, Bear. What's this gonna amount to? We talkin' Season 2 of House of Cards level scandal here? Doubt it's going to be that big, but if the election was still close (which it looks like it isn't), this could potentially have knocked Trump out. We'll see just how well the story spreads. Obviously Trump's campaign is just going to deny it and go on about biased medias and yadda yadda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Just now, Jasta11 said: Doubt it's going to be that big, but if the election was still close (which it looks like it isn't), this could potentially have knocked Trump out. We'll see just how well the story spreads. Obviously Trump's campaign is just going to deny it and go on about biased medias and yadda yadda. And it was a sting operation, and for a super PAC not officially affiliated with the campaign. Seems like it would be relatively easy for Trump to distance himself and his campaign from this scandal. Indeed if you wanted to carry out a sting to completely destroy Trump's campaign why wouldn't you be looking to donate directly to the campaign? Perhaps they had tried that and got turned back. If the Trump campaign can say that they rebuffed an approach from what appeared to be a foreign donor then they would come out looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Yeah, doing some more research it looks like this was a shady PAC doing shady things. Its relationship with Trump is tenuous at best, and Stone himself said 'watch out for these guys.' While they haven't done nothing - according to OpenSecrets they've raised $14m - they aren't a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Altherion Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 54 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said: This is perhaps a very well argued and lengthy explanation. It's too bad that it missed my main point by a country mile. So what was your main point? I though that you were disparaging the propaganda techniques used by the Trump campaign (specifically, denial of polling data and usage of conspiracy theories) and saying that the Republican party in general has also been bad at propaganda. My point was that the Trump campaign is not using Republican propaganda methods demonstrated to be successful despite being in an ideal position to do so. 51 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said: It's probably impossible to make sure there's no way to trace them to prove they're false. So if creating a few false e-mails was considered they probably decided the risk of being caught in a fraud was too great. Unlike the swiftboating. Here there was just he said they said, no way to prove or disprove what either side said, and it appears that the swiftboating was able to benefit from that addage that the best lies are sprinkled with a grain of truth. That the US was handing out purple hearts like candy for any slight injury, and that Kerry benefitted from that lolly jar approach meant the SBVfT group was able to make mileage on something that was not a lie. Well, in the worst case you could simply make a raw text file out of the emails on a machine in the country it is to be sent from. The text file is obviously not the original email files, so it's not quite as good, but you can probably sell it as long as the story it tells is exciting enough. And yes, it has to be constructed in a way such that the story itself is impossible to prove or disprove, but this is not that difficult. For example, if two people who are routinely very close to each other due to their professional relationship had an affair and the only evidence of it was some alleged electronic correspondence, there would not be any way to prove it or disprove it either way. And of course, there's no way this could be seen as coming from the Trump campaign -- but that is the easiest part as, unlike the swift boat stuff, this is just a file coming from the international electronic chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swordfish Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 42 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said: And it was a sting operation, and for a super PAC not officially affiliated with the campaign. Seems like it would be relatively easy for Trump to distance himself and his campaign from this scandal. Indeed if you wanted to carry out a sting to completely destroy Trump's campaign why wouldn't you be looking to donate directly to the campaign? Perhaps they had tried that and got turned back. If the Trump campaign can say that they rebuffed an approach from what appeared to be a foreign donor then they would come out looking good. Yeah. According to the article, they were not just not officially affiliated, they were specifically disavowed by the campaign: Quote Asked if Mr Trump's campaign was aware of the scheme suggested by Mr Benton, his spokeswoman said: " We publicly disavowed this group back in April. This is public via Federal Election Commission filings. Nothing to see here really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manhole Eunuchsbane Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Podesta Wikileaks bombshell... https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/24668?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark /Forgot the basil? Fucking amatuer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRider Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 Here's the dealio, in Nevada, Clark County (Las Vegas) is blue, but Washoe County (Reno) is usually reddish. So in the reddish part of the state..... As of 10/23/16 Washoe County early votes 9,429 total cast 4,809 Dem......3,078 Rep....1,542.....other Go for it Washoe, bank those early Demo votes! Turn Washoe County blue, I dare ya! My old stomping ground, go Nevada go, turn blue blue blue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 9 hours ago, Fez said: Really goes to show how much of an anomaly Leahy is; him and Orrin Hatch and Thad Cochran are the only ones left who were first elected in the 1970s. There have been 271 people elected as Senators since Leahy won his first senate election. Not quite as spectacular an anomaly as Robert Byrd was. Not only the last Senator from the 1950s, but outlived all other Senators from before him, while remaining in the Senate the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 1 hour ago, Swordfish said: Yeah. According to the article, they were not just not officially affiliated, they were specifically disavowed by the campaign: Nothing to see here really. The only thing of interest to see here is that while the Orange's campaign thought about it and did a bit of exploration of the offer, the Clinton campaign, also approached by the same fella(s), ignored him / them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ariadne23 Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 59 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said: Podesta Wikileaks bombshell... https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/24668?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark /Forgot the basil? Fucking amatuer. I feel like a total privacy-violating asshole for knowing that Mary Podesta cannot spell creme fraiche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldGimletEye Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 2 hours ago, Altherion said: So what was your main point? I though that you were disparaging the propaganda techniques used by the Trump campaign (specifically, denial of polling data and usage of conspiracy theories) and saying that the Republican party in general has also been bad at propaganda. My point was that the Trump campaign is not using Republican propaganda methods demonstrated to be successful despite being in an ideal position to do so. The point here was the Republican Party's and the Conservative's movements continual bad habit of ignoring data and empirical evidence when those things refute or question their views and then making up the most batshit crazy conspiracy theories to question that evidence. Last election cycle we had Unskewed Polls. And then after Unskewed Polls the Republican Party went around making up conspiracy theories about inflation data and unemployment data when those things didn't align with their views. And there are of course other examples. And now some, like Trump, are making up bullshit about current polling data. Conjuring up some wacko conspiracy theory in the process. The point wasn't really about Republican Propaganda tactics. It was more about the intellectual standards of the Repubican Party and Conservatives going right down the crapper. It's a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkynJay Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 I forgot my phone and as such couldn't listen to my audiobook while driving today. So I listened to Rush and Hannity instead! Rush is positive the media is making up polls for any number of reasons. Once he had Pence on he settled on depressing conservative voters so they stay home; apparently pulling money out of swing states and moving into down ballot stuff is a calculated move that PROVES Hillary is sure she is actually behind. I also learned that people who follow the news, but get it from services like CNN and even the AP wire, are low information voters. Meanwhile in even kookierville Lumpy is sure that as we speak Democrats are organizing large scale voting fraud scheams because of...ACORN. Yes, it proves it if only we listen. Finally gave up and went back to sports talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 1 hour ago, Nasty LongRider said: As of 10/23/16 Washoe County early votes 9,429 total cast 4,809 Dem......3,078 Rep....1,542.....other Go for it Washoe, bank those early Demo votes! Turn Washoe County blue, I dare ya! My old stomping ground, go Nevada go, turn blue blue blue! After 2014, I can't get excited about early voting totals anymore. Its better to be up than down of course; but the early voting numbers seemed fantastic in 2014, and the election was a disaster. All those great numbers were just regular election day voters casting their ballots early, with no increase in less likely voters participating. And I've heard enough talk of Republicans not voting early on purpose this time because of unclear voter fraud fears that I don't take much stock of their numbers being down either. 1 hour ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said: Not quite as spectacular an anomaly as Robert Byrd was. Not only the last Senator from the 1950s, but outlived all other Senators from before him, while remaining in the Senate the entire time. True, Byrd was a bigger anomaly, but Leahy is up there too. Mostly thanks to managing to win his first Senate election at age 34 giving more time to rack up the years; even Bryd was already 42 when he joined the Senate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 There's also the bizarre little factoid that Leahy remains the only Senator in the history of Vermont to be elected as a Democrat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
all swedes are racist Posted October 25, 2016 Author Share Posted October 25, 2016 so, nothing all that substantive here, but this is just too goddamn good not to share. i knew i had seen the like of this trump campaign before: history repeats itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokisnow Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 There's a daily beast story that just dropped that says trump threw wild parties to facilitate contact pimp-style between models and old men, but there's no real substance to the allegations other than that the world of modeling is probably far more responsible than trump partaking in its scene. www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/24/inside-donald-trump-s-one-stop-parties-attendees-recall-cocaine-and-very-young-models.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 Trump +7 in South Dakota. He's still going to win it, of course, but this, together with Kansas, suggests Trump's doing badly in the Great Plains... which means I like Hillary's chances in NE-2. (And if Hillary's dipping her toes into the expensive Texas media market, perhaps she could get ambitious elsewhere. An ad buy in South Dakota would be dirt cheap). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 45 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said: Trump +7 in South Dakota. He's still going to win it, of course, but this, together with Kansas, suggests Trump's doing badly in the Great Plains... which means I like Hillary's chances in NE-2. (And if Hillary's dipping her toes into the expensive Texas media market, perhaps she could get ambitious elsewhere. An ad buy in South Dakota would be dirt cheap). On the other hand, its because of regular poll numbers like this that I expect Clinton's popular vote margin to be far more impressive than her electoral vote margin. I think she's going to come closer than any Democrat has in a long time in a lot of red states, but I'm not sure she's going to win any of them. Maybe Arizona, but that is probably about it (Georgia hasn't looked quite as good, and Missouri has been bad at the Presidential level). Meanwhile, Ohio and Iowa still look like states Trump can win. Clinton could win by a 10 point margin and still have a map that looks like this; which is a fairly close election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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