Murdering Aenys Blackfyre was not for the good of the realm

[The Grey Wolf]

1 minute ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

@The Grey Wolf

The Ironborn cannot be defeated on land. They have to be defeated on sea. Calling knights from the Vale, sellswords from Essos or spears from Dorne would do no help as they wouldn't be able to fight the same on sea as they do on land. Elsewise the North should have no issue because we know they have more than enough of men to fight the IB on land. Yet they couldn't, because they have no navy. (Brandon the Burner burnt all the ships.)

Westeros has only two major fleets which could possibly match the Ironborn -  one KL's fleet, on the eastern side, and one the Redwynes fleet on the West.  Lannisport has a very small fleet, which was presumably destroyed by the Ironborn because we learn that the Lannister in charge at the time had to build ships to stave off the Ironborn. That would easily take atleast 6 months, going off how much time Stannis took to rebuild a fleet to take Dragonstone during RR.  If it was a matter of just men, the Westerlands has that too. 

We don't have information on what the details of the whole thing, but the only real thing BR could have done was direct the Redwyne fleet towards the Ironborn. Considering that Dagon raided as far as the Arbor anyway, I'm expecting that the Redwyne fleet must have been defeated by the Ironborn at the time. With that gone, there's really nothing BR can do except direct the KL fleet, which would leave Dragonstone and KL wide open to attack, or wait for ships to be built in the first place. The problem was not of men at all, that much is clear, because both regions had enough men to combat the IB.

You make a good point.

On the bolded, that might not actually be true. Its mentioned in TWOIAF that Balon V Greyjoy (known as "the Coldwind") "destroyed the feeble fleets of the King in the North", which may imply that after Brandon the Burner the Starks did periodically invest in building a fleet but (for plot purposes) it never really got off the ground.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

3 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Yes, but I am referring to Bloodraven's logic immediately after Daemon's arrest. I suppose BR had reason to believe that if he kept Daemon alive it would prevent Bittersteel from crowning the next son. And I guess BR could have just executed Daemon or whatever was decided if he turned out to be wrong about that.

Public image I guess -  the Blackfyre cause was already dubious in it's righteousness, simply crowning any son of Daemon would have made them seem even more power hungry than they actually were. Recall the talk from Kyle the Cat in TMK - he keeps saying the "evil" BR or Maekar are likely to sieze the throne by force, blah blah. I get the impression disregarding the laws of succession were generally viewed negatively (unless you're the Tyrells )

[Little Scribe of Naath]

Just now, The Grey Wolf said:

You make a good point.

On the bolded, that might not actually be true. Its mentioned in TWOIAF that Balon V Greyjoy (known as "the Coldwind") "destroyed the feeble fleets of the King in the North", which may imply that after Brandon the Burner the Starks did periodically invest in building a fleet but (for plot purposes) it never really got off the ground.

That's always been one of the biggest plot holes to me -  the North, a place rich in forests and wood and which is vulnerable to attack from the coast, doesn't have a proper navy.  I guess it would have solved some problems for Robb in ACOK - ASOS though because he could have bypassed Frey, but then we wouldn't have this story

[The Grey Wolf]

3 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

That's always been one of the biggest plot holes to me -  the North, a place rich in forests and wood and which is vulnerable to attack from the coast, doesn't have a proper navy.  I guess it would have solved some problems for Robb in ACOK - ASOS though because he could have bypassed Frey, but then we wouldn't have this story

Pretty much. Drama trumps logic in Westeros.

[Lord Varys]

13 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

That's always been one of the biggest plot holes to me -  the North, a place rich in forests and wood and which is vulnerable to attack from the coast, doesn't have a proper navy.  I guess it would have solved some problems for Robb in ACOK - ASOS though because he could have bypassed Frey, but then we wouldn't have this story

I guess the explanation for that is the burning of the fleet, the fact that western reaches of the North might be less populated than eastern coast, and the fact that the decline of the Ironborn ended the threats from that side. In addition, it is quite clear that is next to nothing going on in the field of naval trade north of Lannisport and the Iron Islands. There are no major harbors nor small trading towns on the North's western coast.

Sure, the fisherfolk living on Cape Kraken, the Stony Shore, Bear Island, and Sea Dragon Point would have fishing boats and small ships and the like but there is no reason to believe that they have either the need or the resources to build a war fleet.

As to the Redwyne Fleet: The Redwynes turned out to be basically a non-factor during the Dance. That could be a hint that the Redwyne fleet only reached its current size in recent times - say, because their wine business really got very profitable in the last decades or so, causing them to build more war ships to protect their trading galleys. 

Their absence as a powerful naval force in TSS and TMK could be explained by that. In addition, we know that the Lannisters had a considerable fleet of their own until they were burned during Balon's Rebellion (and earlier the Lannisters lost another fleet to Dalton's raidings during the Dance). The Hightowers also have a fleet right now and might have had a bigger fleet at a certain point in the past.

Addendum:

Comparatively speaking we should also assume that the royal fleet under Robert might have been significantly smaller than the royal fleet under the Targaryens. Most of the Targaryen royal fleet were destroyed by the storm in the night of Dany's birth and Stannis later build a new fleet in preparation for the attack on Dragonstone. Presumably that fleet wasn't as large as the Targaryen fleet.

Later on Robert must have lost at least some ships during the campaign against the Greyjoys.

In addition we have the fact that the royal fleet under the Targaryens also included the Velaryon fleet which usually made up the bulk of it. Most of those ships might have been destroyed off Dragonstone in the storm, too.

In that sense the Redwyne fleet might be as large and important as a factor during the reign of Robert because the Crown's fleet is significantly smaller - even more so in the wake of the War of the Five Kings during which most of the ships were destroyed.

[Aetta]

Murdering Aenys Blackfyre insured Jon Snow would be.  Follow the bouncing ball.

ETA-So did the spring sickness and Summerhall, et al et al  

Bloodraven is not supposed to be a saint, he's supposed to be a badass and a player in the game of fates. He always knew he was on the road to hell but he truly paved it with good intentions-for all of Planetos, not just his sire's house.  A lot of mythological "good guys" have done dirty deeds which sacrificed their personal honor but which they knew would be redeemed.  Brynden must know he will be redeemed or die trying.  Jon's birth then Bran's excellent timing may seal that deal.