Heresy Project X+Y=J: Wrap up thread 4

[SFDanny]

58 minutes ago, LynnS said:

God dammit SFDanny.  What do you think trolling is if it isn't attacking someone's character and motive in the way that you are attacking Crystal Feather FFS.  Is the crow calling the raven black?  What the eff is wrong with people.  

Thank you. My response to Feather Crystal was me being honest and trying to cut through bullshit. From your response and hers it tells me it was also hurtful. 

@Feather Crystal you have my honest apology to go along with my honest opinions.

[Melifeather]

2 hours ago, Ygrain said:

He is definitely not. Illyrio says outright that Dany was expected to die on the Dothraki sea, and I believe that when he told Viserys not to go, it was merely a mind game to make Viserys go and get himself killed.

And spend their forces, not to mention a couple of convenient casualties in the high ranks, so that Aegon remains unopposed when he sweeps in to save the day.

If there can be lemon trees on Bear Island, so there can be in Braavos :-)

Discounting Barristan's account because...?

If I remember correctly, Barristan doesn't say Ashara was dishonored at Harrenhall, and the KotLT story has her laughing and dancing, not crying on a Stark shoulder. 

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

Thank you. My response to Feather Crystal was me being honest and trying to cut through bullshit. From your response and hers it tells me it was also hurtful. 

@Feather Crystal you have my honest apology to go along with my honest opinions.

I really appreciate your apology. It shows you have class.

[Melifeather]

8 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

Well I'm terribly sorry for saying it was an understandable mistake and suggesting that we all do that sometimes. I take it all back!

You spanked me the first time, Kingmonkey. No need to do it twice. 

Unless you like that sort of thing?

 

[LynnS]

2 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Thank you. My response to Feather Crystal was me being honest and trying to cut through bullshit. From your response and hers it tells me it was also hurtful. 

I have respect for you SFDanny.  We should all take time to eat ice cream and look at something cute once in a while:

 

[Ygrain]

2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

If I remember correctly, Barristan doesn't say Ashara was dishonored at Harrenhall, and the KotLT story has her laughing and dancing, not crying on a Stark shoulder. 

"But Ashara’s daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well."

BTW, the KotLT story has her do what a Stark asks her to.

[Melifeather]

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

"But Ashara’s daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well."

BTW, the KotLT story has her do what a Stark asks her to.

OK I give up. My mind is preoccupied with work today. Where's Kingmonkey? He's already spanked me twice. May as well go for three.

 

[Melifeather]

The Inversion theory is now posted on Heresy.

[maudisdottir]

I keep coming back to the same issue with all of these heresy theories.  Most of them have no textual evidence, and the argument is "George likes to mislead" or "unreliable narrator" or some other vague dismissal of the actual evidence in the books.  ETA also "inversion".  I forgot about that one.

My problem with this, of course, is that the clues are already sprinkled pretty sparsely through the books, and aren't always obvious to the new reader (myself included on my first read).  So why would George deliberately fudge every single clue in the book to throw us off the track (which in itself seems pointless and annoying for the reader) when most of us didn't pick up on those clues the first time anyway?  Or tell a backstory through dreams (a handy tool for a writer who is slowly revealing past events) but apparently the dreams are purposely there to misdirect us.  Why?

The careful reader looks more closely and discovers the clues to what really (IMO) happened with R+L, yet apparently those clues were put there to mislead us and the real evidence isn't actually in the books but is meant to be strung together from what remains unsaid.  Sorry, but that's a load of WTF to me.

[Melifeather]

2 minutes ago, maudisdottir said:

Sorry, but that's a load of WTF to me.

The premise of R+L=J is based on a fever dream, so be prepared for a big WTF moment when you finish Winds.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

11 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

The premise of R+L=J is based on a fever dream, so be prepared for a big WTF moment when you finish Winds.

That's a little bit dishonest. Yes, a fever dream is a part of the evidence. There's also, however, some other stuff, I'll take the liberty and just copy-paste it from the Tower of the Hand (which takes into account only the first three books, by the way):

2) The Evidence

a) Rhaegar's Personality--True Love With Lyanna?

At the beginning of the series, the reader comes off with a general disliking of Rhaegar Targaryen. However, most opinions about Rhaegar comes from Robert. While Robert makes Rhaegar out to be an evil man and a rapist, this could be because Rhaegar stole away Lyanna, Robert's true love. Clearly, no other character has this dislike for Rhaegar, and most other characters seems to repsect and adore him. Just a brief selection:

He {Ned} wondered if Rhaegar had frequented brothels. Somehow he thought not.

AGOT p381

The knight {Jorah} gave her a curious look. "You are your brother's sister, in truth."

"Viserys?" She {Dany} did not understand.

"No," he answered. "Rhaegar."

AGOT p668

{Dany said,} "There is some good to be said of my father, surely?"

"There is, Your Grace. Of him, and those who came before him. Your grandfather Jaehaerys and his brother, their father Aegon, your mother... and Rhaegar. Him most of all."

ASOS p815

So it appears that Eddard, Jorah and Barristan all disagree with Robert and think that Rhaegar was a fine, upstanding citizen... hardly the sort of man who would abduct a young girl against her will. Perhaps even Robert realizes this:

Confused, the king shook his head. "Rhaegar... Rhaegar won, damn him. I killed him, Ned, I drove that spike right through his black armor into his black heart and he died at my feet... Yet somehow he still won. He has Lyanna now, and I have her."

AGOT p430

The quote might possibly be interpreted as Robert admitting that Lyanna went willingly with Rhaegar. For this seems like a likely possibility--Lyanna fell in love with Rhaegar, and went off with him. We know she had no great love for Robert:

"Robert will never keep to one bed," Lyanna had told him at Winterfell, on the night long ago when their father had promised her hand to the young Lord of Storm's End. "I hear he has gotten a child on some young girl in the Vale." Ned had held the babe in his arms; he could scarcely deny her, nor would he lie to his sister, but he assured her that what Robert did before their betrothal was of no matter, that he was a good man and true who would love her with all his heart. Lyanna had only smiled. "Love is sweet, dearest Ned, but it cannot change a man's nature."

AGOT p379

So clearly Lyanna did not truly love Robert, and Rhaegar was not the evil man who Robert made him out to be. So it seems likely that the pair fell in love, and we have some proof to support this. For example, at the tourney at Harrenhal in the year of the false spring, Rhaegar won the jousting contest. But instead of crowning his own wife Elia the queen of love and beauty, he crowned Lyanna (ASOS p486). Ned reflects on this while hallucinating:

Ned remembered the moment when all the smiles died, when Prince Rhaegar Targaryen urged his horse past his own wife, the Dornish princess Elia Martell, to lay the queen of beauty's laurel in Lyanna's lap. He could see it still: a crown of winter roses, as blue as frost.

Ned Stark reached out his hand to grasp the flowery crown, but beneath the pale blue petals, the thorns lay hidden...

AGOT p631

This is obviously a significant moment, for Eddard to remember it while locked in a cell. And we have another reference to Lyanna falling for Rhaegar at the Harrenhal tourney, from Meera's story about the Knight of the Laughing Tree:

"The dragon prince sang a song so sad it made the wolf maid sniffle, but when her pup brother teased her for crying she poured wine over his head."

ASOS p281

The dragon prince is Rhaegar; the wolf maid is Lyanna. It certainly seems implied that she is falling in love with him. And another hint from Meera:

"And the mystery knight should defeat all challengers and name the wolf maid the queen of love and beauty."

"She was," said Meera. "But that's a sadder story."

ASOS p283

And then we have several other references which are ambiguous, almost deliberately so:

Yet sometimes Dany would picture it the way it had been... Her brother Rhaegar battling the Usurper in the bloody waters of the Trident and dying for the woman he loved...

AGOT p30

And when Dany sees visions in the House of the Undying:

Rubies flew like drops of blood from the chest of a dying prince, and he sank to his knees in the water and with his last breath murmured a woman's name...

ACOK p706

In both these quotes, GRRM avoids using the word 'Elia' and instead uses 'the woman' or 'the woman he loved' suggesting that it could be someone besides Elia... Lyanna, perhaps?

The Kingsguard, the Tower of Joy and Lyanna's Death

On page 424 of A Game of Thrones, Eddard is dreaming while under the influence of the milk of the poppy for his injured leg. During this time, he has a dream about his fight with the Kingsguard at the Tower of Joy. GRRM has stated that this dream is not completely literal (Ned was dreaming, after all) but some basic facts can be gleaned from it.

One is that three men of the Kingsguard, Ser Arthur Dayne, Ser Gerold Hightower, and Ser Oswell Whent, were present at the Tower of Joy. This is curious since, as far as the reader knows, there is no royal blood present at the Tower of Joy--just Lyanna. Then why are they there, instead of with Viserys or Daenerys? (Rhaegar and Aerys are dead by this time.)

The obvious reason is, of course, that Lyanna is carrying Rhaegar's baby, and the Kingsguard are there to protect that portion of the royal blood. But would Rhaegar trust these men with such a secret? Probably. Barristan told Dany that Rhaegar's oldest and truest friend was Arthur Dayne (ASOS p90), so he was probably just the man to trust with such a secret.

The Kingsguard evidentally had an effect on Eddard. On AGOT p502, just the sight of three men in white cloaks sends a chill through him.

Then there comes the curious matter of Lyanna's death. From Eddard's thoughts on AGOT p43, we learn that she died of a fever, in a room that smelled of 'blood and roses.' Since the fighting took place outside the tower, we can theorize that the blood came from Lyanna's childbirth. We know the blood came from Lyanna, because on AGOT p424, Eddard remembers 'Lyanna in her bed of blood.' Her bed of blood--the blood came from her, and blood is not usually the effect of a fever. And GRRM has been known to liken this term to birthing--on AGOT p674, Mirri Maz Duur says she knows the secrets of the 'bloody bed,' meaning birthing.

c) "Promise Me, Ned"

"I was with her when she died," Ned reminded the king. "She wanted to come home, to rest beside Brandon and Father." He could still hear her at times. Promise me, she had cried, in a room that smelled of blood and roses. Promise me, Ned. The fever had taken her strength and her voice had been faint as a whisper, but when he gave his word, the fear had gone out of his sister's eyes.

AGOT p43

From the quote above, Eddard implies that his promise to Lyanna was to bury her at Winterfell. However, he recalls the quote throughout the book at the strangest times and places, suggesting that the promise meant something more. From above, the simple phrase 'the fear had gone out of his sister's eyes' suggests that the promise is something deeper--why should she be so scared about where she is buried? It has been suggested that what Eddard was really promising was to keep Jon's identity a secret, and this can be supported by the manner in which he recalls Lyanna's words.

"You avenged Lyanna at the Trident," Ned said, halting beside the king. Promise me, Ned, she had whispered.

AGOT p116

This quote could be explained away by the fact that Eddard referred to Lyanna. But Robert killing Rhaegar doesn't have much to do with anything if Ned promised to bury Lyanna at Winterfell. The quote fits better if Ned's promise was concerning Jon, because it would fit with Robert's hatred of Targaryens.

He remembered Rhaegar's infant son, the red ruin of his skull, and the way the king had turned away, as he had turned away in Darry's audience hall not so long ago. He could still hear Sansa pleading, as Lyanna had pleaded once.

AGOT p199

Now this is interesting. Why in the world would Eddard compare Sansa pleading for Lady's life to Lyanna pleading to be buried in Winterfell--especially in the context of Robert's hatred of Targaryens? This references makes absolutely no sense unless one accepts that Lyanna was pleading to keep Jon's identity secret from Robert.

"I will," Ned promised her. That was his curse. Robert would swear undying love and forget them before evenfall, but Ned Stark kept his vows. He thought of the promises he made to Lyanna as she lay dying, and the price he'd paid to keep them.

AGOT p380

Again, this doesn't make much sense in the context of Ned promising Lyanna to bury her at Winterfell. What price would he had to have paid to do this? If the promise concerned Jon, on the other hand, the quote makes sense. Ned has certainly paid a price by claiming Jon is his own son, especially with Catelyn.

The next quote comes from Eddard's dream:

"Promise me, Ned," Lyanna's statue whispered. She wore a garland of pale blue roses, and her eyes wept blood.

AGOT p501

Eddard seems to have a lot of violent and troubled dreams concerning his promise to Lyanna. Why? It seems unnatural for him to place that much importance on simply burying her at Winterfell.

"Eat the bastard. Don't care if you choke on him. Promise me, Ned." {said Robert.}

"I promise." "Promise me, Ned," Lyanna's voice echoed.

AGOT p505

This quote can simply be attributed to Eddard likening his promises to Robert on his deathbed to his promises to Lyanna on hers.

So with so many references to these promises, if seems like they were very important in Eddard's mind; certainly more important than ensuring Lyanna was buried at Winterfell. They could very well be about Jon; if not, then of something of equal importance.

d) Blue Winter Roses

Along with 'Promise me, Ned,' Eddard also remembers blue roses at the strangest times. This can also be attribuited to Lyanna. She loved the smell of blue winter roses. (AGOT p631) And the crown for the queen of love and beauty that Rhaegar tossed her was made of the flower. (AGOT p631). Of course, Ned's references to blue roses could just be due to his grief over how Lyanna died, but they could mean something more...

Promise me, she had cried, in a room that smelled of blood and roses. Promise me, Ned... Ned remembered the way she had smiled then, how tightly her fingers had clutched his as she gave up her hold on life, the rose petals spilling from her palm, dead and black... "I bring her flowers when I can," {Ned} said. "Lyanna was... fond of flowers."

AGOT p43

The room in which Lyanna died smelled of roses, and she held some in her hand. Interesting. If Rhaegar knew that they were her favorite flower, he could have been trying to make her happy.

As they came together in a rush of steel and shadow, he could hear Lyanna screaming. "Eddard!" she called. A storm of rose petals blew across a blood-streaked sky, as blue as the eyes of death.

AGOT p425

Her {Cersei's} eyes burned, green fire in the dusk, like the lioness that was her sigil. "The night of our wedding feast, the first time we shared a bed, he called me by your sister's name. He was on top of me, in me, stinking of wine, and he whispered Lyanna."

Ned thought of pale blue roses, and for a moment he wanted to weep.

AGOT p480

"Promise me, Ned," Lyanna's statue whispered. She wore a garland of pale blue roses, and her eyes wept blood.

AGOT p501

The slim, sad girl who wore a crown of pale blue roses and a white gown spattered with gore could only be Lyanna.

ACOK p809

The real clincher comes with a vision Dany has in the House of the Undying.

A blue flower grew from a chink in a wall of ice, and filled the air with sweetness.

ACOK p707

This quote strongly implies that Lyanna's blue roses have something to do with the Wall (the 'wall of ice') This makes perfect sense because Jon, the product of Lyanna and her blue roses, is on the Wall.

One more final clue comes on ACOK p746. Ygritte tells Jon a story about Bael the Bard. Bael picked a blue winter rose from Winterfell's greenhouse unasked; a year later, he returned the son he fathered off Lord Stark's daughter in payment for that rose. Since Rhaegar is known to be a great fan of music and songs, it is likely that he heard this story, and was fulfilling his romantic outlook on life by imitating Bael in the blue roses.

e) Lies, Broken Promises and Troubled Dreams

Since Eddard is described as an honorable man, one would think that he would feel guilty over the fact that he is lying to the world about Jon's parentage. Well, he certainly feels guilty over something. Throughout the book, there are numerous references to the fact that he feels guilty for telling lies. These lies most likely have to do with Jon or something as equally serious.

Troubled sleep was no stranger to him {Ned}. He had lived lies for fourteen years, yet they still haunted him at night.

AGOT p115

Since Jon is fourteen years old at this time, this strongly implies that Eddard's fourteen years of lies are about Jon. The fact that they still haunt him at night fits in with Eddard's dreams about blue roses and the Tower of Joy.

"She whined and looked at me and a felt so 'shamed, but it was right, wasn't it? The queen would have killed her."

"It was right," her father said. "And even the lie was... not without honor."

AGOT p222

Eddard could easily be comparing Arya's honorable lies to his own.

Some secrets are safer kept hidden. So secrets are too dangerous to share, even with those you love and trust. {Ned thought}

AGOT p357

This seems to imply that Ned has secrets of his own.

The rain had driven everyone under their roofs. It beat down on Ned's head, warm and relentless as old guilts.

AGOT p379

The deceit made him {Ned} feel soiled. The lies we tell for love, he thought. May the gods forgive me.

AGOT p504

All these above quotes seen to suggest that Eddard has been lying about something for fourteen years. If not Jon, then what? There are probably other options, but Jon seems the most likely at this point.

f) Thoughts Concerning Jon

Most of the above quotes had to do with pointing evidence at Lyanna or Rhaegar. However, a sizeable number of quotes do suggest that Jon is more than just a normal bastard boy. For one, Eddard never seems to refer to Jon as his son, which is interesting.

"Never ask me about Jon," he said, cold as ice. "He is my blood, and that is all you need to know."

AGOT p65

Note that Eddard calls Jon 'my blood,' not 'my son.' This could be a hint that Eddard is still trying to tell as much truth as possible, because Jon is still his nephew if he is Lyanna's son. And then, on AGOT p486:

Ned thought, If it came to that, the life of some child I did not know, against Robb and Sansa and Arya and Bran and Rickon, what would I do? Even more so, what would Catelyn do, if it were Jon's life, against the children of her body. He did not know. He prayed he never would.

Eddard lists off all his children in his mind, but conveniently does not include Jon on the list. Interesting.

Eddard then has some more thoughts about Jon while locked in a cell underneath the Red Keep, waiting to die.

The thought of Jon filled Ned with a sense of shame, a sorrow too deep for words. If only he could see the boy again, sit and talk with him...

AGOT p635

Why, out of all his children, does Eddard want to talk with Jon before he dies? Could he finally want to reveal to him the secret of his parentage? Of course, Ned could be wanting to do this even if Jon's mother was someone else, so this quote does not just apply to the Lyanna-Rhaegar scenario. Two pages earlier, Eddard asks Varys if he would deliver a letter. Perhaps Eddard wanted to put the secret of Jon's mother in that letter for Varys to deliver.

Bran has an interesting dream which may add to the evidence.

"I dreamed about the crow last night. The one with three eyes. He flew into my bedchamber and told me to come with him, so I did. We went down to the crypts. Father was there, and we talked. He was sad."

"And why was that?" Luwin peered through his tube.

"It was something to do about Jon, I think." The dream had been deeply disturbing, more so that any of the other crow dreams.

AGOT p730

In the series thus far, most characters' dreams have hinted at being prophetic or somewhat magical. The fact that Eddard was trying to tell Bran that there was something about Jon in the crypts may suggest that a secret about Jon is down there--near Lyanna's statue, maybe?

Jon has a similar dream:

"I'm walking down this long empty hall... opening doors, shouting names... the castle is always empty... the stables are full of bones. That always scares me. I start to run, then, throwing open doors, climbing the tower three steps at a time, screaming for someone, for anyone. And then I find myself in front of the door to the crypts. It's black inside, and I can see the steps spiraling down. Somehow I know I have to go down there, but I don't want to. I'm afraid of what might be waiting for me... I scream that I'm not a Stark, that this isn't my place, but it's no good, I have to go down anyway, so I start down, feeling the walls as I descend, with no torch to light the way. It gets darker and darker, until I want to scream... that's when I always wake."

AGOT p267

This also seems to hint that Jon also has some sort of destiny in the crypts--again, perhaps his heritage? One more thing seems to hint at Jon's parents:

"King," croaked the raven. The bird flapped across the air to land on Mormont's shoulder. "King," it said again, strutting back and forth.

"He likes that word," Jon said, smiling.

"An easy word to say. An easy word to like."

"King," the bird said again.

"I think he means for you to have a crown, my lord."

"The realm has three kings already, and that's two too many for my liking." Mormont stroked the raven under the beak with his finger, but all the while his eyes never left Jon Snow.

ACOK p105

This could be the random spoutings of a raven. Or it could be a subtle clue that Jon, as the only surviving son of Rhaegar, would be the king of Westeros if the Targaryens still reigned.

Yet another possible clue comes in the physical appearances of the characters. It has been stated numerous times throughout the series that Jon and Arya are similar in physical appearance. Arya is also often compared to Lyanna, such as Eddard's statement on AGOT p221. Through logical sequence, Lyanna is indirectly being compared to Jon. (Lyanna looks like Arya and Arya looks like Jon.)

As one last tidbit of evidence, it can be said that if Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, it fits with the series name 'A Song of Ice and Fire.' Jon seems to be shaping as the main character, and it woudl fit the series title if his parents were Rhaegar (fire) and Lyanna (ice).

[Melifeather]

Heresy 192 - The Wheel of Time

[Melifeather]

2 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

That's a little bit dishonest. Yes, a fever dream is a part of the evidence. There's also, however, some other stuff, I'll take the liberty and just copy-paste it from the Tower of the Hand (which takes into account only the first three books, by the way):

2) The Evidence

a) Rhaegar's Personality--True Love With Lyanna?

At the beginning of the series, the reader comes off with a general disliking of Rhaegar Targaryen. However, most opinions about Rhaegar comes from Robert. While Robert makes Rhaegar out to be an evil man and a rapist, this could be because Rhaegar stole away Lyanna, Robert's true love. Clearly, no other character has this dislike for Rhaegar, and most other characters seems to repsect and adore him. Just a brief selection:

He {Ned} wondered if Rhaegar had frequented brothels. Somehow he thought not.

AGOT p381

The knight {Jorah} gave her a curious look. "You are your brother's sister, in truth."

"Viserys?" She {Dany} did not understand.

"No," he answered. "Rhaegar."

AGOT p668

{Dany said,} "There is some good to be said of my father, surely?"

"There is, Your Grace. Of him, and those who came before him. Your grandfather Jaehaerys and his brother, their father Aegon, your mother... and Rhaegar. Him most of all."

ASOS p815

So it appears that Eddard, Jorah and Barristan all disagree with Robert and think that Rhaegar was a fine, upstanding citizen... hardly the sort of man who would abduct a young girl against her will. Perhaps even Robert realizes this:

Confused, the king shook his head. "Rhaegar... Rhaegar won, damn him. I killed him, Ned, I drove that spike right through his black armor into his black heart and he died at my feet... Yet somehow he still won. He has Lyanna now, and I have her."

AGOT p430

The quote might possibly be interpreted as Robert admitting that Lyanna went willingly with Rhaegar. For this seems like a likely possibility--Lyanna fell in love with Rhaegar, and went off with him. We know she had no great love for Robert:

"Robert will never keep to one bed," Lyanna had told him at Winterfell, on the night long ago when their father had promised her hand to the young Lord of Storm's End. "I hear he has gotten a child on some young girl in the Vale." Ned had held the babe in his arms; he could scarcely deny her, nor would he lie to his sister, but he assured her that what Robert did before their betrothal was of no matter, that he was a good man and true who would love her with all his heart. Lyanna had only smiled. "Love is sweet, dearest Ned, but it cannot change a man's nature."

AGOT p379

So clearly Lyanna did not truly love Robert, and Rhaegar was not the evil man who Robert made him out to be. So it seems likely that the pair fell in love, and we have some proof to support this. For example, at the tourney at Harrenhal in the year of the false spring, Rhaegar won the jousting contest. But instead of crowning his own wife Elia the queen of love and beauty, he crowned Lyanna (ASOS p486). Ned reflects on this while hallucinating:

Ned remembered the moment when all the smiles died, when Prince Rhaegar Targaryen urged his horse past his own wife, the Dornish princess Elia Martell, to lay the queen of beauty's laurel in Lyanna's lap. He could see it still: a crown of winter roses, as blue as frost.

Ned Stark reached out his hand to grasp the flowery crown, but beneath the pale blue petals, the thorns lay hidden...

AGOT p631

This is obviously a significant moment, for Eddard to remember it while locked in a cell. And we have another reference to Lyanna falling for Rhaegar at the Harrenhal tourney, from Meera's story about the Knight of the Laughing Tree:

"The dragon prince sang a song so sad it made the wolf maid sniffle, but when her pup brother teased her for crying she poured wine over his head."

ASOS p281

The dragon prince is Rhaegar; the wolf maid is Lyanna. It certainly seems implied that she is falling in love with him. And another hint from Meera:

"And the mystery knight should defeat all challengers and name the wolf maid the queen of love and beauty."

"She was," said Meera. "But that's a sadder story."

ASOS p283

And then we have several other references which are ambiguous, almost deliberately so:

Yet sometimes Dany would picture it the way it had been... Her brother Rhaegar battling the Usurper in the bloody waters of the Trident and dying for the woman he loved...

AGOT p30

And when Dany sees visions in the House of the Undying:

Rubies flew like drops of blood from the chest of a dying prince, and he sank to his knees in the water and with his last breath murmured a woman's name...

ACOK p706

In both these quotes, GRRM avoids using the word 'Elia' and instead uses 'the woman' or 'the woman he loved' suggesting that it could be someone besides Elia... Lyanna, perhaps?

The Kingsguard, the Tower of Joy and Lyanna's Death

On page 424 of A Game of Thrones, Eddard is dreaming while under the influence of the milk of the poppy for his injured leg. During this time, he has a dream about his fight with the Kingsguard at the Tower of Joy. GRRM has stated that this dream is not completely literal (Ned was dreaming, after all) but some basic facts can be gleaned from it.

One is that three men of the Kingsguard, Ser Arthur Dayne, Ser Gerold Hightower, and Ser Oswell Whent, were present at the Tower of Joy. This is curious since, as far as the reader knows, there is no royal blood present at the Tower of Joy--just Lyanna. Then why are they there, instead of with Viserys or Daenerys? (Rhaegar and Aerys are dead by this time.)

The obvious reason is, of course, that Lyanna is carrying Rhaegar's baby, and the Kingsguard are there to protect that portion of the royal blood. But would Rhaegar trust these men with such a secret? Probably. Barristan told Dany that Rhaegar's oldest and truest friend was Arthur Dayne (ASOS p90), so he was probably just the man to trust with such a secret.

The Kingsguard evidentally had an effect on Eddard. On AGOT p502, just the sight of three men in white cloaks sends a chill through him.

Then there comes the curious matter of Lyanna's death. From Eddard's thoughts on AGOT p43, we learn that she died of a fever, in a room that smelled of 'blood and roses.' Since the fighting took place outside the tower, we can theorize that the blood came from Lyanna's childbirth. We know the blood came from Lyanna, because on AGOT p424, Eddard remembers 'Lyanna in her bed of blood.' Her bed of blood--the blood came from her, and blood is not usually the effect of a fever. And GRRM has been known to liken this term to birthing--on AGOT p674, Mirri Maz Duur says she knows the secrets of the 'bloody bed,' meaning birthing.

c) "Promise Me, Ned"

"I was with her when she died," Ned reminded the king. "She wanted to come home, to rest beside Brandon and Father." He could still hear her at times. Promise me, she had cried, in a room that smelled of blood and roses. Promise me, Ned. The fever had taken her strength and her voice had been faint as a whisper, but when he gave his word, the fear had gone out of his sister's eyes.

AGOT p43

From the quote above, Eddard implies that his promise to Lyanna was to bury her at Winterfell. However, he recalls the quote throughout the book at the strangest times and places, suggesting that the promise meant something more. From above, the simple phrase 'the fear had gone out of his sister's eyes' suggests that the promise is something deeper--why should she be so scared about where she is buried? It has been suggested that what Eddard was really promising was to keep Jon's identity a secret, and this can be supported by the manner in which he recalls Lyanna's words.

"You avenged Lyanna at the Trident," Ned said, halting beside the king. Promise me, Ned, she had whispered.

AGOT p116

This quote could be explained away by the fact that Eddard referred to Lyanna. But Robert killing Rhaegar doesn't have much to do with anything if Ned promised to bury Lyanna at Winterfell. The quote fits better if Ned's promise was concerning Jon, because it would fit with Robert's hatred of Targaryens.

He remembered Rhaegar's infant son, the red ruin of his skull, and the way the king had turned away, as he had turned away in Darry's audience hall not so long ago. He could still hear Sansa pleading, as Lyanna had pleaded once.

AGOT p199

Now this is interesting. Why in the world would Eddard compare Sansa pleading for Lady's life to Lyanna pleading to be buried in Winterfell--especially in the context of Robert's hatred of Targaryens? This references makes absolutely no sense unless one accepts that Lyanna was pleading to keep Jon's identity secret from Robert.

"I will," Ned promised her. That was his curse. Robert would swear undying love and forget them before evenfall, but Ned Stark kept his vows. He thought of the promises he made to Lyanna as she lay dying, and the price he'd paid to keep them.

AGOT p380

Again, this doesn't make much sense in the context of Ned promising Lyanna to bury her at Winterfell. What price would he had to have paid to do this? If the promise concerned Jon, on the other hand, the quote makes sense. Ned has certainly paid a price by claiming Jon is his own son, especially with Catelyn.

The next quote comes from Eddard's dream:

"Promise me, Ned," Lyanna's statue whispered. She wore a garland of pale blue roses, and her eyes wept blood.

AGOT p501

Eddard seems to have a lot of violent and troubled dreams concerning his promise to Lyanna. Why? It seems unnatural for him to place that much importance on simply burying her at Winterfell.

"Eat the bastard. Don't care if you choke on him. Promise me, Ned." {said Robert.}

"I promise." "Promise me, Ned," Lyanna's voice echoed.

AGOT p505

This quote can simply be attributed to Eddard likening his promises to Robert on his deathbed to his promises to Lyanna on hers.

So with so many references to these promises, if seems like they were very important in Eddard's mind; certainly more important than ensuring Lyanna was buried at Winterfell. They could very well be about Jon; if not, then of something of equal importance.

d) Blue Winter Roses

Along with 'Promise me, Ned,' Eddard also remembers blue roses at the strangest times. This can also be attribuited to Lyanna. She loved the smell of blue winter roses. (AGOT p631) And the crown for the queen of love and beauty that Rhaegar tossed her was made of the flower. (AGOT p631). Of course, Ned's references to blue roses could just be due to his grief over how Lyanna died, but they could mean something more...

Promise me, she had cried, in a room that smelled of blood and roses. Promise me, Ned... Ned remembered the way she had smiled then, how tightly her fingers had clutched his as she gave up her hold on life, the rose petals spilling from her palm, dead and black... "I bring her flowers when I can," {Ned} said. "Lyanna was... fond of flowers."

AGOT p43

The room in which Lyanna died smelled of roses, and she held some in her hand. Interesting. If Rhaegar knew that they were her favorite flower, he could have been trying to make her happy.

As they came together in a rush of steel and shadow, he could hear Lyanna screaming. "Eddard!" she called. A storm of rose petals blew across a blood-streaked sky, as blue as the eyes of death.

AGOT p425

Her {Cersei's} eyes burned, green fire in the dusk, like the lioness that was her sigil. "The night of our wedding feast, the first time we shared a bed, he called me by your sister's name. He was on top of me, in me, stinking of wine, and he whispered Lyanna."

Ned thought of pale blue roses, and for a moment he wanted to weep.

AGOT p480

"Promise me, Ned," Lyanna's statue whispered. She wore a garland of pale blue roses, and her eyes wept blood.

AGOT p501

The slim, sad girl who wore a crown of pale blue roses and a white gown spattered with gore could only be Lyanna.

ACOK p809

The real clincher comes with a vision Dany has in the House of the Undying.

A blue flower grew from a chink in a wall of ice, and filled the air with sweetness.

ACOK p707

This quote strongly implies that Lyanna's blue roses have something to do with the Wall (the 'wall of ice') This makes perfect sense because Jon, the product of Lyanna and her blue roses, is on the Wall.

One more final clue comes on ACOK p746. Ygritte tells Jon a story about Bael the Bard. Bael picked a blue winter rose from Winterfell's greenhouse unasked; a year later, he returned the son he fathered off Lord Stark's daughter in payment for that rose. Since Rhaegar is known to be a great fan of music and songs, it is likely that he heard this story, and was fulfilling his romantic outlook on life by imitating Bael in the blue roses.

e) Lies, Broken Promises and Troubled Dreams

Since Eddard is described as an honorable man, one would think that he would feel guilty over the fact that he is lying to the world about Jon's parentage. Well, he certainly feels guilty over something. Throughout the book, there are numerous references to the fact that he feels guilty for telling lies. These lies most likely have to do with Jon or something as equally serious.

Troubled sleep was no stranger to him {Ned}. He had lived lies for fourteen years, yet they still haunted him at night.

AGOT p115

Since Jon is fourteen years old at this time, this strongly implies that Eddard's fourteen years of lies are about Jon. The fact that they still haunt him at night fits in with Eddard's dreams about blue roses and the Tower of Joy.

"She whined and looked at me and a felt so 'shamed, but it was right, wasn't it? The queen would have killed her."

"It was right," her father said. "And even the lie was... not without honor."

AGOT p222

Eddard could easily be comparing Arya's honorable lies to his own.

Some secrets are safer kept hidden. So secrets are too dangerous to share, even with those you love and trust. {Ned thought}

AGOT p357

This seems to imply that Ned has secrets of his own.

The rain had driven everyone under their roofs. It beat down on Ned's head, warm and relentless as old guilts.

AGOT p379

The deceit made him {Ned} feel soiled. The lies we tell for love, he thought. May the gods forgive me.

AGOT p504

All these above quotes seen to suggest that Eddard has been lying about something for fourteen years. If not Jon, then what? There are probably other options, but Jon seems the most likely at this point.

f) Thoughts Concerning Jon

Most of the above quotes had to do with pointing evidence at Lyanna or Rhaegar. However, a sizeable number of quotes do suggest that Jon is more than just a normal bastard boy. For one, Eddard never seems to refer to Jon as his son, which is interesting.

"Never ask me about Jon," he said, cold as ice. "He is my blood, and that is all you need to know."

AGOT p65

Note that Eddard calls Jon 'my blood,' not 'my son.' This could be a hint that Eddard is still trying to tell as much truth as possible, because Jon is still his nephew if he is Lyanna's son. And then, on AGOT p486:

Ned thought, If it came to that, the life of some child I did not know, against Robb and Sansa and Arya and Bran and Rickon, what would I do? Even more so, what would Catelyn do, if it were Jon's life, against the children of her body. He did not know. He prayed he never would.

Eddard lists off all his children in his mind, but conveniently does not include Jon on the list. Interesting.

Eddard then has some more thoughts about Jon while locked in a cell underneath the Red Keep, waiting to die.

The thought of Jon filled Ned with a sense of shame, a sorrow too deep for words. If only he could see the boy again, sit and talk with him...

AGOT p635

Why, out of all his children, does Eddard want to talk with Jon before he dies? Could he finally want to reveal to him the secret of his parentage? Of course, Ned could be wanting to do this even if Jon's mother was someone else, so this quote does not just apply to the Lyanna-Rhaegar scenario. Two pages earlier, Eddard asks Varys if he would deliver a letter. Perhaps Eddard wanted to put the secret of Jon's mother in that letter for Varys to deliver.

Bran has an interesting dream which may add to the evidence.

"I dreamed about the crow last night. The one with three eyes. He flew into my bedchamber and told me to come with him, so I did. We went down to the crypts. Father was there, and we talked. He was sad."

"And why was that?" Luwin peered through his tube.

"It was something to do about Jon, I think." The dream had been deeply disturbing, more so that any of the other crow dreams.

AGOT p730

In the series thus far, most characters' dreams have hinted at being prophetic or somewhat magical. The fact that Eddard was trying to tell Bran that there was something about Jon in the crypts may suggest that a secret about Jon is down there--near Lyanna's statue, maybe?

Jon has a similar dream:

"I'm walking down this long empty hall... opening doors, shouting names... the castle is always empty... the stables are full of bones. That always scares me. I start to run, then, throwing open doors, climbing the tower three steps at a time, screaming for someone, for anyone. And then I find myself in front of the door to the crypts. It's black inside, and I can see the steps spiraling down. Somehow I know I have to go down there, but I don't want to. I'm afraid of what might be waiting for me... I scream that I'm not a Stark, that this isn't my place, but it's no good, I have to go down anyway, so I start down, feeling the walls as I descend, with no torch to light the way. It gets darker and darker, until I want to scream... that's when I always wake."

AGOT p267

This also seems to hint that Jon also has some sort of destiny in the crypts--again, perhaps his heritage? One more thing seems to hint at Jon's parents:

"King," croaked the raven. The bird flapped across the air to land on Mormont's shoulder. "King," it said again, strutting back and forth.

"He likes that word," Jon said, smiling.

"An easy word to say. An easy word to like."

"King," the bird said again.

"I think he means for you to have a crown, my lord."

"The realm has three kings already, and that's two too many for my liking." Mormont stroked the raven under the beak with his finger, but all the while his eyes never left Jon Snow.

ACOK p105

This could be the random spoutings of a raven. Or it could be a subtle clue that Jon, as the only surviving son of Rhaegar, would be the king of Westeros if the Targaryens still reigned.

Yet another possible clue comes in the physical appearances of the characters. It has been stated numerous times throughout the series that Jon and Arya are similar in physical appearance. Arya is also often compared to Lyanna, such as Eddard's statement on AGOT p221. Through logical sequence, Lyanna is indirectly being compared to Jon. (Lyanna looks like Arya and Arya looks like Jon.)

As one last tidbit of evidence, it can be said that if Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, it fits with the series name 'A Song of Ice and Fire.' Jon seems to be shaping as the main character, and it woudl fit the series title if his parents were Rhaegar (fire) and Lyanna (ice).

First let me preface this by saying this is an alternate X+Y=J thread. There is already an R+L thread.

Secondly, whether one character likes or dislikes another is not evidence. On the contrary emotions create bias leading to assumptions and a dismissive attitude towards evidence contrary to the emotional investment.

Thirdly, sniffling at a sad song does not equate falling in love.

Fourth, dying with the name of a woman on his lips is not evidence. See emotional bias explanation above.

Fifth, crowning a woman other than your wife casts suspicion, but requires speculating the intent. Again, this is circumstantial and emotional bias, therefore not evidence.

Sixth, a fever dream is not evidence.

Seventh, symbolism is open to interpretation, and not confirmed evidence.

Eighth, that Ned recalls during waking hours that Lyanna pleaded with him, that he's kept lies for 14 years because of these promises, are still not evidence that Rhaegar kidnapped her.

Ninth, the likelihood that Ned is not Jon's father is not evidence that Rhaegar is.

Tenth, you cannot know what Ned wanted to write when he asked Varys to help him.

Eleventh, Bran doesn't remember what his father told him about Jon in the dream. Again, this is not evidence.

Twelfth, Jon's dream about not belonging in the crypts is just a dream, plus if Lyanna is his mother, her Stark blood makes the family crypt his place too.

Thirteenth, the raven calling Jon "King" could just as easily mean Nights King or King in the North just as easily as any other kind of king. 

Fouteenth, Jon looking like Arya may suggest Stark genes, but zero evidence for Targaryen.

Fifteenth, Dany is just as much a main character as Jon, so why have one full Fire character and one half and half? Still, this is not evidence.

I'm afraid you've posted a whole lot O nuttin. Not one bit of solid evidence. Just emotional bias, heresay, and gossip.

[Kingmonkey]

10 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

You spanked me the first time, Kingmonkey. No need to do it twice. 

Hey, I tried to soften the blow but you weren't having it! 

10 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Unless you like that sort of thing?

Why Feather! We've barely met.

7 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

 Where's Kingmonkey? He's already spanked me twice. May as well go for three.

Feather!

 

[Kingmonkey]

1 hour ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

That's a little bit dishonest. Yes, a fever dream is a part of the evidence. There's also, however, some other stuff, I'll take the liberty and just copy-paste it from the Tower of the Hand (which takes into account only the first three books, by the way):

Allow me add as a source the RLJ essay I wrote for this very XYJ project has barely any reliance on the dream. I describe it as the "bingo moment" that first gives us enough to put RLJ together, but nothing that's a part of the dream itself is used as evidence. Only the fact of the Ned having the dream, and the way Ned describes it.

I wrote it with answering exactly this kind of challenge in mind. There are questionable things that are often woven into the fabric of RLJ in discussion of the theory. How literally you take different elements of the dream, for example. How reliable the sources of the love story are. Protect vs. Obey. I've avoided these to show that the fabric is not reliant on those threads. RLJ simply doesn't rely on that stuff at all, it's speculative additions to the core theory.

[kimim]

16 hours ago, Ygrain said:

He is definitely not. Illyrio says outright that Dany was expected to die on the Dothraki sea, and I believe that when he told Viserys not to go, it was merely a mind game to make Viserys go and get himself killed.

I think he's surprised that she survived, but idk if sending her off was just an attempt to kill her. If they had wanted Dany and Viserys dead, they would have killed them while they had them in their house; there was no need to involve Drogo.

16 hours ago, Ygrain said:

And spend their forces, not to mention a couple of convenient casualties in the high ranks, so that Aegon remains unopposed when he sweeps in to save the day.

There are ways of getting Westeros to spend its forces, and civil war is one of them. When Aegon lands, Varys kills Kevan in order to create civil war. With Dany and Drogo, he wants to stop exactly the kind of thing he starts by killing Kevan.

Arya overhears Varys back in Game. Varys is worried that the realm will fall apart before Drogo gets there. His concerns are potential rifts in Westeros:

• Stannis and Lysa have "fled beyond" Varys's "reach," and are "gathering swords around them." This can split the Baratheons.
• Renly and Loras want Robert to wed Margaery, getting rid of Cersei and creating strife between Lannisters and Baratheons.
• Ned is about to discover twincest, which will again create strife between Lannisters and Baratheons. 
• Starks and Lannisters are on the verge of war and Tullys are getting dragged in.

Illyrio wants Varys to delay:

Quote

"Too soon, too soon," the voice with the accent complained. "What good is war now? We are not ready. Delay."

Varys wants to make haste:

Quote

If the Lannisters move north, that will bring the Tullys in as well. Delay, you say. Make haste, I reply.

Next chapter, Varys encourages Robert to assassinate Dany. The failed assassination attempt forces Drogo to move on Westeros immediately as revenge. Drogo is hastened.

Varys is trying to prevent the civil war long enough for Drogo to land on Westeros. WHY? If he's working for Aegon (if Aegon was still a concept so early in the series) why would he want Drogo to face a united Westeros? There are many scenarios for how that would go, but the only thing that's certain is that Drogo would not be guaranteed a victory under those conditions. Westerosi might not need outsider help from Aegon. That they'd welcome Aegon after defeating Drogo and his Targ wife is a long shot; that Aegon and his sellswords could win over a newly victorious and united Westeros, with Robert, Ned, Tywin all potentially alive, is dubious. Yet that is the scenario Varys is encouraging by "juggling" to prevent the civil war he thinks is coming while hastening Drogo.

Ned, in prison, asks Varys what he wants:

Quote

"Peace," Varys replied without hesitation. "If there was one soul in King's Landing who was truly desperate to keep Robert Baratheon alive, it was me."

This is consistent with the conversation Arya overhears, so long as we assume that by "peace" Varys means "no games, no civil war."

Varys says Ned should have put aside the rules on who should inherit and supported Joffrey's succession. The only clear result of that would have been no civil war, no Stannis and Ned battling the Lannisters. Varys wants Ned to put aside his desire for personal vengeance, make a deal with Cersei, take the black and return North. Again, the result would end an impending war between great families. Ned asks why he should do this:

Quote

"You want me to serve the woman who murdered my king, butchered my men, and crippled my son?" Ned's voice was thick with disbelief.

"I want you to serve the realm," Varys said.

Varys is a moral touchstone in this conversation. Westeros has always faced civil war and misery because of feudal lords and their power games and their vengeance. Varys reminds Ned of the deaths of Rhaegar's children, that when civil war happens, innocents suffer:

Quote

Lord Eddard, tell me...why is it always the innocents who suffer most, when you high lords play your game of thrones?

Varys wants Ned to act unselfishly, to put aside his pride, and do whatever he needs to in order to prevent civil war. Stability, the realm are more important than Joffrey's actual parentage, more important than Robert's death, especially important as Varys knows what Ned does not: Drogo is coming (or so he thinks). 

When Ned asks "who do you truly serve," Varys says

Quote

"why, the realm, my good lord, however could you doubt that? I swear it by my lost manhood. I serve the realm, and the realm needs peace."

I think Varys is being honest here. I believe that Aegon is a retcon created late in the novel. Back in Game, possibly even in Clash, Varys is Littlefinger's opposite. LF encourages wars between the lords, and uses the ensuing chaos for personal advancement; he doesn't care about the realm, or "innocents." Varys will use chaos, not for personal advancement, but in order to change the system. At this point, I don't believe he is loyal to a specific family; I think he is loyal to the realm, a situation symbolized by his "lost balls." He has no family to support.

I believe he is trying to use Dany and Drogo as his very own Walkers and zombies, as the alien "other" that will force Westeros to unite.

In Clash, Dany tells Jorah that a "mummer's dragon" is

Quote

a cloth dragon on poles...Mummers use them in their follies, to give the heroes something to fight."

Varys knows the lords, our "heroes" are about to go to war with one another yet again, so he'll give them something "other" to fight. He'll send in Dany and Drogo, his cloth dragons. This will cause bloodshed, obviously, but it could, eventually, unite the land which has known little peace thanks to these games. And that, of course, is what will happen once the Walkers get past the Wall.

 

 

[SFDanny]

On 11/30/2016 at 6:51 PM, Kingmonkey said:

Or he wasn't under any protection. He could just avoid any major towns on the way, and take the tiny risk.

Travelling through enemy territory just isn't a big deal when you're talking about small groups in huge land at a medieval level of social organisation and technology. It happens quite a bit in ASOIAF. There's the BWB, who've been at loose in a war zone for years. Arya & the Hound, Bran & co's whole journey. Brienne and Jaime did get caught eventually, but even that took a while and they were being chased by people who knew not only that they were actually there to chase, but roughly where they were going. 

It's a huge risk to the rebellion if he is caught. He is a immediate hostage to be used towards forcing the North's surrender. I think you vastly overstate the ease of travel when every local noble is looking for rebels. This is a very active war zone Ned would have to cross through, and assuming he is good at it still is a hell of a risk. For what, a chance to have sex with his sister? A chance to betray his fellow rebels? Does any of this remotely resemble Ned Stark?

And most importantly, you have not one shred of evidence to suggest it took place.

On 11/30/2016 at 6:51 PM, Kingmonkey said:

Only if they knew.

It's treason against his closest allies if they knew and didn't approve. Do you imagine Ned could just disappear for weeks, if not months, at a time to sneak into enemy territory, hold secret talks, shag his sister, and return without Robert, Jon Arryn, or Hoster Tully noticing his absence? That is nigh on impossible.

On 11/30/2016 at 6:51 PM, Kingmonkey said:

You've dismissed one scenario for an agreement between Ned and Rhaegar, but what about all the other possible scenarios one can imagine for them having a reason for talks? Maybe Rhaegar didn't want them to dismiss their banners at all, but rather wanted them to put him, rather than Robert, on the throne? Maybe Rhaegar offered to hand Lyanna back in exchange for an agreement to exile rather than kill Aerys? Who knows. Rhaegar's actions are frankly so mysterious there's no end to the possible reasons he might have had for proposing secret talks with Ned.

I think one of the biggest errors here is not understanding what kind of a Rubicon all the rebel lords have crossed once they have raised their banners and led them into battle against their sworn king. I'm sure Ned wants Lyanna back safely, but would he do anything to betray the men who rose in rebellion with them to save his head as well as their own, in order to get her back? That would be betrayal on a colossal scale, and not anything like the Ned we know. But more important than that is the idea that such an agreement could possibly be worked out by Rhaegar against his father with these men. At this point, none of them wants anything to do with Rhaegar's Great Council plan, even if they ever did. At this point it is either they die or the Targaryens do, and that is especially true of Rhaegar and Robert. It's that simple.

 

On 11/30/2016 at 6:51 PM, Kingmonkey said:

I make no assumption on how close the KG's noses were to Lyanna at the time. Before you could reasonably answer that, you'd have to determine whether Lyanna was being guarded or protected at the time. Until we know that, all bets are off.

Why? Guarded or protected means the same in terms of letting some one they don't want to get close to Lyanna to do so.

 

On 11/30/2016 at 6:51 PM, Kingmonkey said:

Benjen the guy who mysteriously rushed off to the wall for unexplained reasons shortly afterwards, you mean? 

The guy who's sister and eldest brother had more than a touch of the wolf blood that lead them to early graves?

The guy who seems to have been actively defying his father's wishes  for years by secretly helping Lyanna train at combat?

I don't think it's that unlikely, to be honest!

It is one thing to observe that there maybe unexplained reasons for Benjen to have left his family and joined the Night's Watch. In fact, I think the author's comments make it clear that there are questions to be answered about this. It is another thing altogether to assume it likely that Benjen did not do his duty to his father and family by being the Stark in Winterfell when it was his responsibility to do so. We know from the quote he actually does take on this responsibility for Ned, but there is nothing that hints he wouldn't do so for his father, especially to spend the time instead fucking his sister. Instead of your view of it not being unlikely, it is very, very likely Benjen is in Winterfell from the time of his father's departure to the time of Ned's arrival, no matter what problems he had with his family or what unknown reasons led him to join the Watch.

On 11/30/2016 at 6:51 PM, Kingmonkey said:

I think you have the order the wrong way around. We can already see similarities. The three main characters from the three main families, all in some degree of exile, the bastards and broken things. It's because we're already looking for similarities that we notice a similarity between two of those characters -- Tyrion and Dany's mothers both died in childbirth. Obviously to confirm it's part of the pattern, you'd look to see if that same similarity was shared by the third. In this case we don't know for sure, but we do know that it would match in the third case as well if the prime suspect for Jon's mother turns out to have actually been his mother. 

More to my point is that to find these kind of parallels between any characters should make one ask what does it mean, if anything? Not that this means there must be further parallels between them or that it is predictive of anything because one such thing exists. It is plainly illogical to do so.

On 11/30/2016 at 6:51 PM, Kingmonkey said:

The point I'm making is that those facts you discuss that we know do not hint at Cersei having sex with any of her family either.

And my point is that actually they do, especially in combination clearly hint at Jaime being the father. What they don't do is provide proof that it is Jaime, but that is very different. Ned is searching for the meaning of Jon Arryn's own searches including with Robert's bastard children. He is under the assumption that the Lannister's tried to kill Bran in order to silence him and that they did kill Lord Arryn, and he knows Jaime didn't go on the hunt the day Bran fell. He has observed the closeness of the twins and aa far as we know, there are few candidates for men who have much private time with Cersei. Ned makes a guess. A educated guess based on all of the above, and he confronts Cersei and asks her. He doesn't say I know it is Jaime, but he does ask her if her brother is also her lover. Note the question mark in the text.There really isn't a great mystery here about how Ned comes to his guess or what he does to confirm it. It is only looking for Ned to have some special insight into incest between a sister and brother that makes one try to add this into the reasons he guesses it is Jaime. We have no evidence that is so.

 

[Kingmonkey]

On 01/12/2016 at 6:53 AM, SFDanny said:

No, I haven't forgotten the away party to the Tower of Joy. In the paragraph you don't quote, I did describe the changing nature of Ned's situation as he calls his banners and takes up command of the northern army during the rebellion? Did I not? How the Fisherman's daughter's time period is different than when he is in charge of an army? I thought I did, anyway. The same is true after the surrender at Storm's End. With the last surrender of massed loyalist forces, Ned is free to sneak away on his personal mission. Not so likely during the year long rebellion itself.

I was establishing the fact of Ned T Kirk first. He does go on away missions -- and when he went to the Tower of Joy, he was in charge of an army. 

As you say, conditions change. What were the conditions at the time Jon was conceived? Was Ned actually leading an army in battle, or, like the situation after the surrender at Storm's End, is it possible he was able to go off on an away mission? Well here's the bit I think we both knew this line of discussion was going to end up at:  we don't know.

Look at Ned's timeline. He married Cat, hung out with her for two weeks, and then had to leave her to... what? The next time we actually know what he was up to was the battle of the Trident, a good half year later. There really is an awful lot of scope there for the situation to change.

When Ned and Jon Arryn were at Riverrun getting married, where do you think the armies of the Vale and the North were? I'd say it's a very good bet that they weren't all camped around Riverrun drinking toasts. There was a war on, there was territory to guard, there were enemy forces to chase. There would be commanders under Ned to deal with this while he was busy getting to know his new wife.

After the two weeks with Cat were over, Ned was off doing things we haven't had revealed to us. Where were his forces? What lands were technically rebel-held at the time? Where were Rhaegar and Lyanna? We don't know. It's some time about then that Jon was conceived. Can we exclude Ned having met up with Rhaegar and Lyanna somewhere shortly after leaving Cat? No, because we have basically zero information about Ned's movements at this time. 

[Kingmonkey]

8 hours ago, SFDanny said:

This is a very active war zone Ned would have to cross through, and assuming he is good at it still is a hell of a risk. For what, a chance to have sex with his sister? A chance to betray his fellow rebels? Does any of this remotely resemble Ned Stark?

As I showed, there are plenty of examples of people travelling through war zones. Indeed, technically Ned did exactly that when going to the ToJ.

For what? I already answered that. To try to forestall a disaster.

8 hours ago, SFDanny said:

And most importantly, you have not one shred of evidence to suggest it took place.

Absolutely agreed. However we have no shred of evidence that it didn't happen either, so it cannot be excluded. That's why I excluded Brandon as a possibility but didn't exclude Ned.

8 hours ago, SFDanny said:

It's treason against his closest allies if they knew and didn't approve. Do you imagine Ned could just disappear for weeks, if not months, at a time to sneak into enemy territory, hold secret talks, shag his sister, and return without Robert, Jon Arryn, or Hoster Tully noticing his absence? That is nigh on impossible.

It wouldn't have to be weeks. Where was Ned going when he left Riverrun after the wedding? The last major battle was Stoney Sept. Connington's forces retreated and Darry and Selmy were sent there to round up the royalist forces. That gives us a general idea of the contested zone (no clear front lines when you don't have trench warfare or walls). It's pretty reasonable to assume that Ned's forces would be scattered around strategic points in the vicinity. It wouldn't have to be a long journey to sneak into somewhere nearby where Rhaegar could be hiding out. Would it be that much of a surprise if Rhaegar stopped say at Hollow Hill for a while after the abduction? Or God's Eye Village? Might Ned have had an army at Tumbler's Falls, guarding the way from Stoney Sept into the rebel held Riverlands, and popped across to the sept where later Arya saw the Bloody Mummers?

This just doesn't have to be that much of a problem unless we chose to make it so.

8 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I'm sure Ned wants Lyanna back safely, but would he do anything to betray the men who rose in rebellion with them to save his head as well as their own, in order to get her back? That would be betrayal on a colossal scale, and not anything like the Ned we know.

Would he do "anything"? No, of course not. But that doesn't mean he wouldn't do something. If there was a possibility of getting Lyanna back and possibly even ending the war, don't you think he'd at least want to explore that possibility?

8 hours ago, SFDanny said:

But more important than that is the idea that such an agreement could possibly be worked out by Rhaegar against his father with these men. At this point, none of them wants anything to do with Rhaegar's Great Council plan, even if they ever did. At this point it is either they die or the Targaryens do, and that is especially true of Rhaegar and Robert. It's that simple.

Rhaegar and Robert, probably. However all those years on, Ned still felt that it was worth trying to intercede with Robert and get him to NOT go killing every Targaryen that he saw. Why shouldn't that have been true at the time, as well?

Robert's animosity towards Rhaegar is reason why Ned might be persuaded to do this on his own, but would he overlook the possibility (if he could persuade Robert) of avoiding massive bloodshed? I don't think so.

8 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Why? Guarded or protected means the same in terms of letting some one they don't want to get close to Lyanna to do so.

Right, "someone they don't want". That's the missing part of the equation. If they were trying to bring Ned around, why wouldn't they let him and his sister have some time together? The difference between guarded and protected is simple enough -- if they are guarding her as a prisoner, they wouldn't want Ned there. If they were protecting her, why would they refuse to let her see Ned?

8 hours ago, SFDanny said:

It is one thing to observe that there maybe unexplained reasons for Benjen to have left his family and joined the Night's Watch. In fact, I think the author's comments make it clear that there are questions to be answered about this. It is another thing altogether to assume it likely that Benjen did not do his duty to his father and family by being the Stark in Winterfell when it was his responsibility to do so.

It's not an assumption I'm making. You questioned whether Benjen might go against his father's wishes, and the answer is that yes, he might have. He had done so in the past, and there's a question mark about him being sent to the wall. Dismissing the possibility that he did something bad seems rather silly.

8 hours ago, SFDanny said:

 Instead of your view of it not being unlikely, it is very, very likely Benjen is in Winterfell from the time of his father's departure to the time of Ned's arrival, no matter what problems he had with his family or what unknown reasons led him to join the Watch.

Why is it "very, very likely"? It's based on nothing. We have no idea where Benjen was at the time, or what he was doing. He could have been in Winterfell all along. He might have been Lyanna's escort when she was abducted, and afterwards ran to find Brandon instead of returning to Winterfell as he was supposed to. Lyanna might have run away from home and Benjen went with her. We just don't know, so there's no basis for saying any one thing is "very likely". 

8 hours ago, SFDanny said:

More to my point is that to find these kind of parallels between any characters should make one ask what does it mean, if anything? Not that this means there must be further parallels between them or that it is predictive of anything because one such thing exists. It is plainly illogical to do so.

If you had a single element you knew about one of the parallel characters and assumed it must be shared by the others, that would be illogical. To observe that there are a number of known parallels between three characters and then see that there is a third thing that is a known parallel between two of them and just happens to be a mystery in the case of the third? Really not the same thing. 

8 hours ago, SFDanny said:

And my point is that actually they do, especially in combination clearly hint at Jaime being the father. What they don't do is provide proof that it is Jaime, but that is very different.

How do they even hint at it? To hint at something, they would have to be suggestive of that thing, not simply be compatible with that thing. They are equally compatible with any number of possibilities for Cersei's lover.

8 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Ned is searching for the meaning of Jon Arryn's own searches including with Robert's bastard children. He is under the assumption that the Lannister's tried to kill Bran in order to silence him and that they did kill Lord Arryn, and he knows Jaime didn't go on the hunt the day Bran fell.

That hints that Jaime killed Bran in order to silence him. Ned believes that the Lannisters were responsible for killing Jon Arryn, as you say. So why would Ned jump to the conclusion that Bran found out that Cersei and Jaime were fucking, rather than that he found out that they had killed Jon Arryn? Or even that he overheard Jaime and Cersei talking about Cersei's secret lover back in King's Landing? There is nothing to suggest incest.

8 hours ago, SFDanny said:

He has observed the closeness of the twins and aa far as we know, there are few candidates for men who have much private time with Cersei.

There are plenty of candidates who would have the opportunity for private time with Cersei at some point over the previous 14 years. Particularly if her personal guard and twin brother was happily turning a blind eye to her infidelities. The mere fact that Jaime is Cersei's twin brother means that he should naturally be the last person on that list that would be a suspect, because twins do not usually shag each other. Jaime has the best of all possible reasons for having private time with Cersei without shagging her, so again there is nothing to suggest incest.

8 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Ned makes a guess. A educated guess based on all of the above, and he confronts Cersei and asks her. He doesn't say I know it is Jaime, but he does ask her if her brother is also her lover. Note the question mark in the text.

If you're going to take that question mark as indicating uncertainty, what does Ned actually ask?

Quote

"Your brother?" Ned said. "Or your lover?"

Notice that he doesn't actually specify that this is the same person? Cersei however knows perfectly well what Ned means when she confirms:

Quote

"Both." She did not flinch from the truth.

She knows he's already figured it out. After all, he already told her he'd figured it out:

Quote

"I know the truth Jon Arryn died for," he told her.

Ned is not asking, he's already figured it out. He's fishing for a confession:

Quote

 

"Why here?" Cersei Lannister asked as she stood over him.

"So the gods can see."

 

But where does this educated guess come from? Ned hasn't narrowed down the field of suspects very far at all. Jaime was close to Cersei, but that's to be expected -- if he wasn't shagging her, he'd still have been close to her. Jaime probably pushed Bran, but that's to be expected -- if he wasn't shagging her, he'd still have pushed Bran out of a window to conceal secrets that could be the downfall of the Lannisters.

There is nothing at all that explains why Ned narrowed down the field to such an unlikely father as Cersei's own brother. I agree completely that the possibility I proposed that Ned made the jump out of personal experience is based on nothing, but at least it is an explanation for Ned's jump, which is otherwise totally lacking. 

 

[SFDanny]

27 minutes ago, Kingmonkey said:

I was establishing the fact of Ned T Kirk first. He does go on away missions -- and when he went to the Tower of Joy, he was in charge of an army. 

As you say, conditions change. What were the conditions at the time Jon was conceived? Was Ned actually leading an army in battle, or, like the situation after the surrender at Storm's End, is it possible he was able to go off on an away mission? Well here's the bit I think we both knew this line of discussion was going to end up at:  we don't know.

Look at Ned's timeline. He married Cat, hung out with her for two weeks, and then had to leave her to... what? The next time we actually know what he was up to was the battle of the Trident, a good half year later. There really is an awful lot of scope there for the situation to change.

When Ned and Jon Arryn were at Riverrun getting married, where do you think the armies of the Vale and the North were? I'd say it's a very good bet that they weren't all camped around Riverrun drinking toasts. There was a war on, there was territory to guard, there were enemy forces to chase. There would be commanders under Ned to deal with this while he was busy getting to know his new wife.

After the two weeks with Cat were over, Ned was off doing things we haven't had revealed to us. Where were his forces? What lands were technically rebel-held at the time? Where were Rhaegar and Lyanna? We don't know. It's some time about then that Jon was conceived. Can we exclude Ned having met up with Rhaegar and Lyanna somewhere shortly after leaving Cat? No, because we have basically zero information about Ned's movements at this time. 

Our lack of detailed information doesn't make all things equally possible, does it my friend? I don't think so anyway. I'm going to assume the two weeks after his marriage to Catelyn are some of the most unlikely times for Ned to have gone away on a away mission to see his sister. Why? Because I know he had other responsibilities that kept him in Riverrun with Cat. The need to make Robb babies being at his top priority during this time. 

We can do the same for much of the rest of the war. Ned is one of the rebel commanders in charge of fighting the rebellion. That fact makes it much less likely he is going to be on an away mission behind enemy lines than when he was trying to sneak back to Winterfell, or when the fighting is done following Storm's End. So, yes, is it possible that Ned did so, but it is as unlikely as all hell he did so. Please show me an indication - a memory from a contemporary of when Ned couldn't be found during this period, for instance - and I'd be happy to readjust my estimates of what is likely and what is not. Without that we have Ned's responsibilities as a general of troops setting the frame of what is likely and what is not. Surely, you can agree that is so?

Which is why it is much more likely that an Ashara, or a Wylla, or Fisherman's daughter visits Ned in his army encampment than he sneaks off and visits them. It is the same with Lyanna except with Lyanna we know she has other encumbrances that it make it unlikely she visits Ned. Ashara, Wylla, and the Fisherman's daughter are free to roam - or as Martin famously puts it they are not "nailed to the floor in Dorne." Lyanna could well have been under lock and key in Dorne, or hidden away so the effect would be the same even if she has her own key. If we are figuring out what is more likely of these possibilities then these frameworks must be taken into account. Not just that all things are possible and we don't know enough detail. The detail we know should color our estimates of what is likely.

[Kingmonkey]

7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Our lack of detailed information doesn't make all things equally possible, does it my friend?

Of course not. You KNOW I agree with you on this!  I placed Ned well behind Benjen as a possibility for this reason. I also place Starkcest well behind RLJ as a possibility. I completely agree that it's not a probable thing. However it is a possible thing.

There is a window of opportunity that stop us from being able to dismiss Ned/Lyanna on timeline issues. That's a simple falsification process we can use for any of these theories -- whether there is a credible possibility for X and Y to have met at the right time. If we can show there isn't, the theory can be put aside. Ned is a squeaker here, but he does pass. 

7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I don't think so anyway. I'm going to assume the two weeks after his marriage to Catelyn are some of the most unlikely times for Ned to have gone away on a away mission to see his sister. Why? Because I know he had other responsibilities that kept him in Riverrun with Cat. The need to make Robb babies being at his top priority during this time. 

Right, but after those two weeks were over? All we know is that Jon and Ned left Riverrun "to rejoin the rebellion." That means they went out into the field to take charge of their forces that had been active (at least on guard) elsewhere. That's a very simple opportunity for Ned to slip away for a day or two. 

7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

If we are figuring out what is more likely of these possibilities then these frameworks must be taken into account. Not just that all things are possible and we don't know enough detail. The detail we know should color our estimates of what is likely.

Fully agreed, but I maintain there's a clear window where we simply don't have sufficient detail to colour our estimates of what is likely. How many people were with Ned when he left Riverrun? Where did he set out for? What was the state of the land around? Was Rhaegar friendly enough with Tywin that he could have set up a meeting on "neutral" Lannister territory, a short distance from encamped Norther armies? These kinds of things could let us know, or at least give us a strong indicator, of the possibility of a Ned Away Mission. They're all complete unknowns, so we really can't make any strong judgement of probability. 

On the subject of Ned T. Stark, Lannister red-cloaks are Lannister red-shirts, right? I mean it's not just me?