Heresy Project X+Y=J: Wrap up thread 4

[Black Crow]

2 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

I wonder if there weren't two quite separate power-plays going on there. One Rhaegar+Lannister+Martell, one Baratheon+Stark+Arryn, with the Tullys a prize both were interested in. By appointing Jaime to the KG, Aerys nipped the Lannister/Tully link up in the bud. Harrenhal may have been intended as an opportunity for Rheagar's faction to sound out the B/S/A bloc. 

That's very much what we've discussed with the crown of roses being an overture/warning to the Arryn lot rather than a sudden infatuation by his nibs

[maudisdottir]

I think "far away" refers to Kings Landing, ie "we weren't anywhere near the city because if we were it would have gone down differently".  I don't take from that passage that they were far away from the ToJ.

[LynnS]

9 hours ago, The Ned's Little Girl said:

Thank you for not assuming that I was being snarky. (Sometimes I am, mea culpa.) Because I really wasn't trying to be. The bulk of my argumentation in this particular series of topics has been, "What in the text led to this conclusion?" or "What is the basis for that belief?" I mean, it's one thing for a person to say "X means Y", I just want to know how that person came to that conclusion and what in the books supports that particular assertion. Especially if there is a reasonable, plausible explanation/interpretation already, in which case I'm interested in the question, "Why is this existing reasonable explanation insufficient?" That's kinda what I was getting at.

I'd be glad to hear your answers to my questions in that earlier post, if you're willing. (Unless @wolfmaid7 would consider it to be off-topic or outside the scope of this topic. I would of course comply with her judgement in this matter.)

 

8 hours ago, maudisdottir said:

I also don't mean to come across as snarky with all my question marks, but I'm honestly just looking for answers.  A lot of speculation gets thrown around, not based on anything in the text, but just "what if X happened?  It's not impossible".  Which can be fun to pass the time between books/seasons but it's difficult to debate and people get defensive when they can't produce evidence other than "the books don't say it DIDN'T happen", when in order for certain theories to work it requires a lot of contortion, coincidence and a twist of time travel.

That's very reasonable and I apologize for being a grumpkin and using profanity. I think that you are both intelligent, articulate and perceptive explorers of the subject matter.  I'm happy to continue the discussion with you.

[Frey family reunion]

9 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

I wonder if there weren't two quite separate power-plays going on there. One Rhaegar+Lannister+Martell, one Baratheon+Stark+Arryn, with the Tullys a prize both were interested in. By appointing Jaime to the KG, Aerys nipped the Lannister/Tully link up in the bud. Harrenhal may have been intended as an opportunity for Rheagar's faction to sound out the B/S/A bloc. 

The reaction to Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna seems to make more sense if it might be seen as an attempt to undermine the B/S/A bloc rather than work with it. There may also have been a feeling that Rhaegar was drawing his father's attention to the B/S/A "southron ambitions"   as a distraction from his own ambitions.

Of course there's the big unknown of Jon Arryn in this, who we know almost nothing about. He may have been an arch-manipulator up to all sorts of scheming. It's all a big unknown.

As is every servant in a big castle. There are no perfect hiding places, but out in the mountains is about as close as it comes. Let's face it, it's a whole lot more likely Varys would have a spy at Starfall, the seat of one of Aerys' main political opponents, than some random small mountain village. 

It would of course help if they made sure that the smallfolk in any nearby mountain villages were on their side. Smallfolk tend not to care much about politics, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't think there was some money in talking. However rather usefully we know that one of the 3KG has a track record in winning local smallfolk around to his side. 

 

Interesting point, but if so it appears that Aerys' intelligence (Varys) failed him badly because it appears that Joanna's death pretty much destroyed the Martell Lannister alliance years before the Harrenhal tourney.  With the enmity between Varys and Twin I think it was more likely that Jaime's knighting was used to block the Lannister Tully alliance.

I still have a hard time believing that Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna was a political move to block the Baratheon Stark Arryn alliance.  If it was it was an incredibly clumsy one.  It would have made more sense if Rhaegar had used a catspaw that wasn't already married to create a more legitimate wedge in Rickard's marriage plan for Lyanna.  Unless of course Rhaegar's plan was to merely raise questions of Lyanna's chasteness which perhaps would cause Robert to rethink the marriage.  But that really doesn't ring true for me.

[Kingmonkey]

9 hours ago, wolfmaid7 said:

Which based on the KGs answer to Ned indicates to me that not only were they not at the tower they were somewhere very far.

"I looked for you on the Trident,” Ned said to them. “We were not there,” Ser Gerold answered. “Woe to the Usurper if we had been,” said Ser Oswell. “When King's Landing fell, Ser Jaime slew your king with a golden sword, and I wondered where you were.” “Far away,” Ser Gerold said, “or Aerys would yet sit the Iron Throne,"

This was already debunked by @ravenous reader @JNR and @SFDanny a page or two back. "Far away" means "Far away from King's Landing", not "Far away from here (the toj)". This is unarguable if you consider that Gerold is saying "If we were not far away, Aerys would yet sit on the Iron Throne." Obviously he's not claiming that if they were at the toj then Jaime wouldn't have killed Aerys, that would make no sense.

That answers your points 1 & 2, so:

9 hours ago, wolfmaid7 said:

3. Then we have to think about a few  more things .If the new arguement about the toj being not close to the pass.They had a heavily pregnant woman riding through the mountains? That's reckless.You were better off at Starfall.

As has been pointed out before more than once, that assumes she was heavily pregnant whilst travelling. She may have been at the toj for some time.

There's also nothing to say that travel through the mountains has to be very rough. Remember this isn't about "the toj not being close to the pass", it's about the toj not being close to the main road running through the pass. There would doubtless be many other roads and pathways. Remember this is an area the size of a small country. It's perfectly possible for a route to be relatively easy for a small band to take but impractical to take an army through, and thus not likely to be watched.

 

[Kingmonkey]

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

Interesting point, but if so it appears that Aerys' intelligence (Varys) failed him badly because it appears that Joanna's death pretty much destroyed the Martell Lannister alliance years before the Harrenhal tourney.  With the enmity between Varys and Twin I think it was more likely that Jaime's knighting was used to block the Lannister Tully alliance.

That's what I said!

I agree it looks like things weren't going well between the Martells and Lannisters, and that might be why Tywin considered a match with the Tullys to be important. Interesting that it was Lysa that Jaime was linked to -- the younger daughter being a lesser prize. That Tywin was content to marry his heir to Hoster's third child might imply that he considered a link to the Tullys to be particularly important. Aerys' move seems to have smartly limited Lannister alliances during this period, which may be why the Lannisters stayed out of the war so long -- Tywin perhaps had little choice but see which way the winds were blowing before picking sides.

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

I still have a hard time believing that Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna was a political move to block the Baratheon Stark Arryn alliance.  If it was it was an incredibly clumsy one.  It would have made more sense if Rhaegar had used a catspaw that wasn't already married to create a more legitimate wedge in Rickard's marriage plan for Lyanna.  Unless of course Rhaegar's plan was to merely raise questions of Lyanna's chasteness which perhaps would cause Robert to rethink the marriage.  But that really doesn't ring true for me.

I agree that it's hard to make much sense of it, or indeed of any useful political purpose to the gesture. I think we just don't have enough info here to understand the action. It could be that Rhaegar's thinking was based on some negotiations that we're not privy to yet, and that he felt there was a possibility of sowing distrust in the BSA block. Perhaps he was trying to raise suspicions of a secret deal between him and the Starks. 

I slightly prefer the notion that the "southron ambitions" group were trying to build a power base while Aerys was distracted by the conflict with Rhaegar. Thus when Aerys turned up at Harrenhal suspecting Rhaegar was plotting against him, Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna would direct Aerys' attention towards the Starks, and towards the growing alliances they were developing, rather than towards Rhaegar's actual allies. 

 

[Frey family reunion]

41 minutes ago, Kingmonkey said:

That's what I said!

I agree it looks like things weren't going well between the Martells and Lannisters, and that might be why Tywin considered a match with the Tullys to be important. Interesting that it was Lysa that Jaime was linked to -- the younger daughter being a lesser prize. That Tywin was content to marry his heir to Hoster's third child might imply that he considered a link to the Tullys to be particularly important. Aerys' move seems to have smartly limited Lannister alliances during this period, which may be why the Lannisters stayed out of the war so long -- Tywin perhaps had little choice but see which way the winds were blowing before picking sides.

I agree that it's hard to make much sense of it, or indeed of any useful political purpose to the gesture. I think we just don't have enough info here to understand the action. It could be that Rhaegar's thinking was based on some negotiations that we're not privy to yet, and that he felt there was a possibility of sowing distrust in the BSA block. Perhaps he was trying to raise suspicions of a secret deal between him and the Starks. 

I slightly prefer the notion that the "southron ambitions" group were trying to build a power base while Aerys was distracted by the conflict with Rhaegar. Thus when Aerys turned up at Harrenhal suspecting Rhaegar was plotting against him, Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna would direct Aerys' attention towards the Starks, and towards the growing alliances they were developing, rather than towards Rhaegar's actual allies. 

 

Neither the political explanation makes much sense to me, nor does the generally accepted version (generally accepted by both the readers and the denizens of Westeros) that Rhaegar was so smitten by Lyanna, that he jeopardized his marriage and the Targaryen kingdom as a whole. 

I've often wondered if Rhaegar was blessed/cursed with prophetic dreams which may have motivated many of his actions.  Rhaegar's melancholy aspect often reminds me of Jojen, someone else who seems burdened by the knowledge of what is to come.  If we just looked at Jojen's actions, i.e. leading Bran north of the Wall, without knowing Jojen's motivations, we would be left with many unanswered questions.  Once we realize that Jojen is acting upon what he believes are prophetic dreams, then seemingly bizarre choices start to make sense.

(of course Rhaegar telling Jaime his plans upon his return from the Trident does seem to cast doubt upon Rhaegar being prophetic, unless of course like Melisandre he misread the tea leaves).

[SFDanny]

5 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

That's what I said!

I agree it looks like things weren't going well between the Martells and Lannisters, and that might be why Tywin considered a match with the Tullys to be important. Interesting that it was Lysa that Jaime was linked to -- the younger daughter being a lesser prize. That Tywin was content to marry his heir to Hoster's third child might imply that he considered a link to the Tullys to be particularly important. Aerys' move seems to have smartly limited Lannister alliances during this period, which may be why the Lannisters stayed out of the war so long -- Tywin perhaps had little choice but see which way the winds were blowing before picking sides.

I agree that it's hard to make much sense of it, or indeed of any useful political purpose to the gesture. I think we just don't have enough info here to understand the action. It could be that Rhaegar's thinking was based on some negotiations that we're not privy to yet, and that he felt there was a possibility of sowing distrust in the BSA block. Perhaps he was trying to raise suspicions of a secret deal between him and the Starks. 

I slightly prefer the notion that the "southron ambitions" group were trying to build a power base while Aerys was distracted by the conflict with Rhaegar. Thus when Aerys turned up at Harrenhal suspecting Rhaegar was plotting against him, Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna would direct Aerys' attention towards the Starks, and towards the growing alliances they were developing, rather than towards Rhaegar's actual allies. 

 

The match between Jaime and Lysa is negotiated after Rhaegar and Elia are married. It is after Tywin's plans of a Rhaegar and Cersei match are thwarted by Aerys in very degrading terms. And it is after Tywin's hopes for Aerys's death in Duskendale are dashed. We have a growing power base in the Stark-Tully-Arryn-Baratheon alliances of marriage pacts and fosterings. It's pretty clear Tywin moves to join these alliances when his own plans are ruined. The question is what could the alliance have offered Tywin to get him to join?

My own thoughts are that it is also clear this is not an offer for Tywin to become their new king. A marriage of Tywin's heir to the second daughter of House Tully isn't an indication of this. And we know the rebels themselves had no decision of who would replace Aerys until right before the Trident. So what binds the alliance together? I think the answer is clear. The one thing that could bind all these High Lords together is a future without Targaryen rule. A future without any rule from King's Landing. The rebirth of the Seven Kingdoms into truly independent kingdoms once again. That prize would interest Tywin, once he knows he can no longer hang on to his dreams of a Lannister sitting the Iron Throne. Being part of a power block pledged to bring this about, and sealed through bonds of marriage, would be attractive to him, particularly because it also entails destroying Aerys. Power and revenge are the keys to understanding Tywin Lannister.

Rhaegar's action at Harrenhal has to be seen through this lens. He organizes the event to test the waters for replacing his father through a Great Council. It ends in disaster, not only because Aerys attends, but because so few of the Great Lords do. We have no indication that any of the STAB alliance High Lords are there, and we know Tywin is absent because of his rupture with the king. Then it looks like Rhaegar is sent a rebuke by Brandon Stark in very personal way. He likely seduces the Lady-in-waiting of Rhaegar's wife and the sister to his best friend and guardian Ser Arthur Dayne. Brandon then challenges the Crown Prince and falls before him. And Rhaegar's plans of a Grand Council are dashed as he becomes aware that getting rid of his mad father is not enough for these High Lords and their "Southron Ambitions." His reply to all of this is to speak to the assembled crowd in the same language his father uses with Jaime.

Aerys "honored" Jaime by making him a knight of the Kingsguard. He also stops the Jaime / Lysa betrothal and the entrance of the Lannisters into the STAB alliance by this "honor." Rhaegar "honors" Lyanna in his crowning of her as his Queen of Love and Beauty. He also says in this one act that he stands with his father against these marriage alliances between the Great Houses. He stands with his father in the continuance of Targaryen rule, and stakes his claim with Lyanna in opposition of Robert's claim. It is not a claim of marriage, but it is a clear placement of himself between these alliances taking place. Brandon's anger at the crowning isn't so much at any romantic interest between Rhaegar and Lyanna - this may be true as well - but in the declaration by the Targaryens that they will not allow the alliances to be sealed by marriage. A intervention in the marriage rights of the Great Houses that hasn't been seen since the arranged marriages at the start of Targaryen rule.

In short, what we see at Harrenhal is the political realignment of all of Westeros played out in one great tournament. It starts with Rhaegar's open hand to the nobility to replace his father in a peaceful way, and thereby deal with the concerns about his madness. It ends with the consolidation of the Targaryen family against any attempt to end their reign. Signified by a crown of blue roses placed on a young girl's head.

[Noel E Mahc]

23 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

it's one of my crackpot theories that Lyanna and Ned were incestuous like Cersei and Jaime

Same here, lol.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

7 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

The match between Jaime and Lysa is negotiated after Rhaegar and Elia are married. It is after Tywin's plans of a Rhaegar and Cersei match are thwarted by Aerys in very degrading terms. And it is after Tywin's hopes for Aerys's death in Duskendale are dashed. We have a growing power base in the Stark-Tully-Arryn-Baratheon alliances of marriage pacts and fosterings. It's pretty clear Tywin moves to join these alliances when his own plans are ruined. The question is what could the alliance have offered Tywin to get him to join?

My own thoughts are that it is also clear this is not an offer for Tywin to become their new king. A marriage of Tywin's heir to the second daughter of House Tully isn't an indication of this. And we know the rebels themselves had no decision of who would replace Aerys until right before the Trident. So what binds the alliance together? I think the answer is clear. The one thing that could bind all these High Lords together is a future without Targaryen rule. A future without any rule from King's Landing. The rebirth of the Seven Kingdoms into truly independent kingdoms once again. That prize would interest Tywin, once he knows he can no longer hang on to his dreams of a Lannister sitting the Iron Throne. Being part of a power block pledged to bring this about, and sealed through bonds of marriage, would be attractive to him, particularly because it also entails destroying Aerys. Power and revenge are the keys to understanding Tywin Lannister.

Could it also be possible that replacing the Targaryens with a new king was always in the works, and Tywin, realising this, hoped to marry Cersei to whoever would be the replacement chosen, after his plans with Rhaegar were dashed? Ned, Robert and the likes may not have known these details, but we have no idea what Jon Arryn, Hoster Tully, Rickard Stark were thinking. I think the point of Rickard Stark nursing "Southron Ambitions" seems to have been intended to increase Stark influence and political power in the South, not secede from it. 

[Sly Wren]

18 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

I wonder if there weren't two quite separate power-plays going on there. One Rhaegar+Lannister+Martell, one Baratheon+Stark+Arryn, with the Tullys a prize both were interested in. By appointing Jaime to the KG, Aerys nipped the Lannister/Tully link up in the bud. Harrenhal may have been intended as an opportunity for Rheagar's faction to sound out the B/S/A bloc. 

I could see this. It might have been a bit tense, though, with Tywin's not going along with Doran's wife initially wanting one of her kids to marry a Lannister--apparently Joanna wanted the same.

I also wonder how much Aerys realized he was nipping things in the bud. He may just have though he was thwarting Tywin, not realizing that would only make Tywin more dangerous.

Quote

The reaction to Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna seems to make more sense if it might be seen as an attempt to undermine the B/S/A bloc rather than work with it. There may also have been a feeling that Rhaegar was drawing his father's attention to the B/S/A "southron ambitions"   as a distraction from his own ambitions.

I like this. I've often thought the crowning was an "I see you! Back off!" to the Starks.

But the idea that Rhaegar saw an opportunity in the KotLT and the Starks' plotting, saw them as a way to redirect his father's anger so that he and Tywin can keep up their plans. . . Yes. I could definitely see this.

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Of course there's the big unknown of Jon Arryn in this, who we know almost nothing about. He may have been an arch-manipulator up to all sorts of scheming. It's all a big unknown.

Agreed. But We do have that he was proud. And willing to marry Lysa to get an heir and an alliance. And ended up Hand, which I'm dead sure is the job Tywin wanted back if/when he could get Rhaegar on the throne.

My guess is that Jon Arryn was plotting, too.

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As is every servant in a big castle. There are no perfect hiding places, but out in the mountains is about as close as it comes. Let's face it, it's a whole lot more likely Varys would have a spy at Starfall, the seat of one of Aerys' main political opponents, than some random small mountain village. 

Agreed on the spies--though we don't know what Varys' role in all of this was. One of the key pluses of a castle is that if something goes wrong, you have help. Not to mention regular, easy communication.

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It would of course help if they made sure that the smallfolk in any nearby mountain villages were on their side. Smallfolk tend not to care much about politics, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't think there was some money in talking.

Right--but that also means they can be bought. And this is where the World Book's take on the stony Dornish and their sense of independence might come in.

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However rather usefully we know that one of the 3KG has a track record in winning local smallfolk around to his side. 

Very true! Though this brings us back to my point: if Arthur could get small groups of settlers and villagers on his side even in fractured Dorne, seems like he'd likely be able to inspire even more loyalty at home.

[SFDanny]

16 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Could it also be possible that replacing the Targaryens with a new king was always in the works, and Tywin, realising this, hoped to marry Cersei to whoever would be the replacement chosen, after his plans with Rhaegar were dashed? Ned, Robert and the likes may not have known these details, but we have no idea what Jon Arryn, Hoster Tully, Rickard Stark were thinking. I think the point of Rickard Stark nursing "Southron Ambitions" seems to have been intended to increase Stark influence and political power in the South, not secede from it. 

To your last point, I don't think so. Here is why.

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Yet the house continued with its fortunes mostly unchanged - likely because of the firm resolve of most Lords of Winterfell not to become embroiled in the intrigues of the southron court. When the Stark line was nearly obliterated by Mad King Aerys after Rhaegar's abduction of Lyanna, some misguided men laid the blame at the feet of the late Lord Rickard, whose alliance by blood and friendship tied the great houses together and ensured that they would act together in response to the Mad King's crimes. (TWoI&F 141-142) bold emphasis added

We know this history is written by a maester with a rebel bent to his views - Baratheon / Lannister in particular. So when I read something written from such a source that gives us information counter to those interests, I pay particular attention. We learn here that there are some who blame Lord Rickard and his alliances he is critical in creating, but what our maester tells us in his dismissal of those unnamed sources about those claims is also critical. He states the aim of those alliances are not just an attempt to gain more influence in the royal court, but are aimed at getting the Great Houses to act together against "the Mad King's crimes." This man who is writing a book for the rebel kings that follow Aerys, thinks it is entirely ok to characterize the STAB alliance as formed against Aerys. Indeed, he makes it clear that was the purpose of the alliances. He lays the blame entirely at the feet of Aerys and his mad crimes. The problem here is not only that these same lords have sworn oaths of fealty to Aerys, including to accept his justice, but they have formed this alliances against Aerys before Aerys commits any crime against them. The first "crime" comes in the form of interfering in Jaime and Lysa's betrothal plans by stealing Jaime away from his father by making him a member of the Kingsguard. All the other crimes follow this, but all the alliances are formed before it. Far from being "misguided" these unnamed critics are clearly onto something.

more later

[Sly Wren]

17 hours ago, wolfmaid7 said:

Secondly,its very obvious that if its a one time then Robert very well knows that the one time fathered Jon.He was fishing for her name. Based on his "knowledge" that Ned had a one time encounter with a girl throwing in "you know the one i mean" was othing more than a prod for Ned to give up the woman he slept with name.

But Ned,never told Robert Wylla was Jon's mom.Robert already believed that based on him knowing that Ned had one encounter with a girl.The subject wasn't Jon mom in truth,its the woman he had the one time with. That Robert assumed she was Jon's mother was his reasoning based on what he thought he knew.

I can't see how it's "very obvious" they haven't discussed this before.

But I can see that one way or another, Ned's letting Robert believe what he wants to believe.

7 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

Aerys' move seems to have smartly limited Lannister alliances during this period, which may be why the Lannisters stayed out of the war so long -- Tywin perhaps had little choice but see which way the winds were blowing before picking sides.

Agreed--but I think it wasn't just that he was forced to see which way the winds were blowing. I think there's an excellent chance he had actively set himself up to play both sides. Not unlike what he did when Duskendale came up. And that's why both he and Rhaegar (plus the Freys--with their Lannister ties) stayed out of the war until the opportune moment.

7 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

I slightly prefer the notion that the "southron ambitions" group were trying to build a power base while Aerys was distracted by the conflict with Rhaegar. Thus when Aerys turned up at Harrenhal suspecting Rhaegar was plotting against him, Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna would direct Aerys' attention towards the Starks, and towards the growing alliances they were developing, rather than towards Rhaegar's actual allies. 

The more I read this, the more I like it. It fits with the plotting he seems to have done beforehand. Fits with his potential alliance with Tywin--it's a very clever move. Entering the lists unexpectedly to protect his own interests and throw suspicion onto others--yes, this works very well.

2 hours ago, SFDanny said:

My own thoughts are that it is also clear this is not an offer for Tywin to become their new king. A marriage of Tywin's heir to the second daughter of House Tully isn't an indication of this. And we know the rebels themselves had no decision of who would replace Aerys until right before the Trident. So what binds the alliance together? I think the answer is clear. The one thing that could bind all these High Lords together is a future without Targaryen rule. A future without any rule from King's Landing. The rebirth of the Seven Kingdoms into truly independent kingdoms once again. That prize would interest Tywin, once he knows he can no longer hang on to his dreams of a Lannister sitting the Iron Throne. Being part of a power block pledged to bring this about, and sealed through bonds of marriage, would be attractive to him, particularly because it also entails destroying Aerys. Power and revenge are the keys to understanding Tywin Lannister.

I agree that they all want Aerys gone, but I don't think they all want an end to Targaryen rule. Tywin never moves to become king. He moves to be Hand to the King that he wants (vs. Aerys) and to marry his daughter to that king.

And, far as I can remember, no one proposes such a break-up of power and to decentralize Westeros. Robert's king with Jon Arryn being mostly in charge as Hand. I don't think any of the key players is arguing for independence. The question is who will have the iron throne. 

Tywin would have been very happy to "serve" as Hand to King Rhaegar.  A king with a sickly wife who could tragically die at any moment and thus need a beautiful young lioness to comfort him. All while Tywin is Hand. That really seems like that's Tywin's best scenario.

He settled for second best when Rhaegar failed--marrying his daughter to the new king while Arrryn was Hand. But that still leaves Tywin room to influence the centralized power of th iron throne.

1 hour ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Could it also be possible that replacing the Targaryens with a new king was always in the works, and Tywin, realising this, hoped to marry Cersei to whoever would be the replacement chosen, after his plans with Rhaegar were dashed? Ned, Robert and the likes may not have known these details, but we have no idea what Jon Arryn, Hoster Tully, Rickard Stark were thinking. I think the point of Rickard Stark nursing "Southron Ambitions" seems to have been intended to increase Stark influence and political power in the South, not secede from it. 

Agreed. And I also think putting Rhaegar on the throne was definitely on the table for Tywin.

[SFDanny]

9 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

I agree that they all want Aerys gone, but I don't think they all want an end to Targaryen rule. Tywin never moves to become king. He moves to be Hand to the King that he wants (vs. Aerys) and to marry his daughter to that king.

And, far as I can remember, no one proposes such a break-up of power and to decentralize Westeros. Robert's king with Jon Arryn being mostly in charge as Hand. I don't think any of the key players is arguing for independence. The question is who will have the iron throne. 

Tywin would have been very happy to "serve" as Hand to King Rhaegar.  A king with a sickly wife who could tragically die at any moment and thus need a beautiful young lioness to comfort him. All while Tywin is Hand. That really seems like that's Tywin's best scenario.

He settled for second best when Rhaegar failed--marrying his daughter to the new king while Arrryn was Hand. But that still leaves Tywin room to influence the centralized power of th iron throne.

Agreed. And I also think putting Rhaegar on the throne was definitely on the table for Tywin.

I'm not sure what you mean by "all". If we are only talking of the High Lords, then we have to eliminate the Martells from the equation. They have a special relationship between the Targaryens and themselves - different than all the other houses. Rhaegar's marriage to Elia reinforces this special relationship, and it would be diametrically in opposition to Dorne's interests to join such an alliance.

Tywin obviously wants to continue Targaryen rule without Aerys up until he opens up negotiations with Hoster Tully for Jaime's marriage to Lysa. So, while his interest is mostly in line with replacing what the Martells have with the Targaryens with a special relationship between the Lannisters and the Targaryens, he changes the specifics of that as his relationship with Aerys falls apart. And then he tries to join with the Starks, Tullys, Arryns, and Baratheons in what appears to be a new venture for the Lannisters.

No, it is the STAB alliance of four houses that set themselves up as a bloc against Aerys, I believe.

I think one has to ask, if Maester Yandel is correct about the purpose of the STAB alliance being to get rid of Aerys, then one has to ask what do they plan to do after they accomplish this extraordinary task? Who do they wish to put on the Iron Throne that unites them in a common cause? Is it Lord Rickard? Jon Arryn? Young Robert? I think we can rule out some of these candidates because of Martin's comments about not having chose Robert for the kingship until right before the Trident. Only Rickard and Brandon Stark die before the Trident, so they would be the only candidates of the STAB alliance that could have been tapped for the Kingship before then. But would Jon Arryn, Hoster Tully, or Robert Baratheon risk their lives and the fortunes of their houses to put Lord Rickard on the Iron Throne? It seems very, very unlikely. Would Tywin Lannister consider joining a political bloc that has the ambition of the Lord of Winterfell as its prime motivation? That seems even more unlikely. No, it seems much more likely the goal of the alliance is something they all can benefit from. That means one of two options to me. Either the alliance wants to replace Aerys with another Targaryen, or they want to replace him with nobody.

I've already given my thinking of what happens at Harrenhal, so I see the idea of the STAB alliance being built to bring Rhaegar to the throne as particular out of touch with what we see in the books. If that was the case they would be celebrating Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna, not having to be held back from killing him.

That kind of leaves the idea the STAB alliance is for placing Viserys on the throne and controlling him, or they are about doing away with Targaryen rule. I think there are many reasons to believe the latter and next to none to believe the former.

more later

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Tywin obviously wants to continue Targaryen rule without Aerys up until he opens up negotiations with Hoster Tully for Jaime's marriage to Lysa. So, while his interest is mostly in line with replacing what the Martells have with the Targaryens with a special relationship between the Lannisters and the Targaryens, he changes the specifics of that as his relationship with Aerys falls apart. And then he tries to join with the Starks, Tullys, Arryns, and Baratheons in what appears to be a new venture for the Lannisters.

I'm not entirely sure about this.

Jaime could see archers moving behind the merlons on the castle ramparts. Above them streamed the banners of House Tully, the silver trout defiant on its striped field of red and blue. But the highest tower flew a different flag; a long white standard emblazoned with the direwolf of Stark. “The first time I saw Riverrun, I was a squire green as summer grass,” Jaime told his cousin. “Old Sumner Crakehall sent me to deliver a message, one he swore could not be entrusted to a raven. Lord Hoster kept me for a fortnight whilst mulling his reply, and sat me beside his daughter Lysa at every meal.”

I think that this occurred during the really early stages of the discussions concerning a Jaime/Lysa match. What message could Lord Sumner have had for Hoster, and why was it so essential that it was Jaime who went to Riverrun to deliver it? I suspect that the message Sumner sent had been ordered by Tywin, so there would be an excuse to sent Jaime to the riverlands. Hoster taking a fortnight to write a reply is simply him stalling before sending Jaime back to Crakehall, and it goes without saying that seating Jaime and Lysa together as often as possible was on purpose as well.

So if this was indeed part of the negotiations (an early part, I would assume), then we know roughly when it happened.

Jaime began squiring for Lord Sumner at the age of eleven, so this cannot have been earlier than 277 AC, the year he turned eleven. 

At table he had ignored poor Lysa, whilst pressing Brynden Tully for tales of Maelys the Monstrous and the Ebon Prince. Ser Brynden was younger then than I am now, Jaime reflected, and I was younger than Peck.

Jaime recalls this in 300 AC, when he is thirty-three/thirty-four years old. Peck's age at that moment tells us little, as he is fifteen, but Brynden's age might tell us more. Brynden had been younger than thirty-four (the eldest Jaime can be at the moment), making him thirty-three or younger when Jaime visited Riverrun (assuming that Jaime is correct, of course), though we should assume that it would still have been possible for Brynden to have turned thirty-four later that year.

We also know that Brynden was born in or between 243 AC and 245 AC, which tells us that Jaime's visit to Riverrun cannot have occured any later than 279 AC (the last possible moment Brynden could have been thirty-three turning thirty-four - in this case he would have been born in 245 AC; having been born earlier would place Jaime's visit to Riverrun earlier as well). That's two years before Tywin and Hoster reached the "let's discuss the dowry" stage, at least.

So Jaime visited Riverrun in the 277-279 AC time window, as far as I can tell. During which Tywin brought Cersei to court as well (278 AC, IIRC), in an attempt to get a royal marriage, according to Jaime, despite the fact that Aerys had already turned down the suggestion in 276 AC.

So if Tywin had been interested in joining the alliance against Aerys so early on, why insist bringing Cersei to court and refusing every single offer for her hand? Was this simply a case of Tywin trying to keep both options open? What message did that send to the alliance between the Starks, Baratheons, Arryns and Tully's? And why did these negotiations take so long?

 

Quote

That kind of leaves the idea the STAB alliance is for placing Viserys on the throne and controlling him, or they are about doing away with Targaryen rule. I think there are many reasons to believe the latter and next to none to believe the former.

Why Viserys? Would Aegon not make more sense? Or Rhaegar? That would allow for them to keep the Dornish on their side as well. The more Kingdoms join them, the stronger they are, so why risk the anger of the Dornish (who are not at all likely with placing Viserys on the throne over one of their own (Aegon))? If they can get Dorne on their side, that would make it six regions versus two (the Reach and the Iron Islands), instead of five versus three. Better odds, I'd say. Especially considering the enormous strenght of the Reach, and the fact that, even if the Great Houses commit to a rebellion, it is by no means an assurance that all of their bannermen will follow them in battle (as seen during Robert's Rebellion in the stormlands, riverlands, and Vale).

And if the STAB alliance wants to put an end to the Targaryen rule, why had there been no idea whatsoever as to who to place on the throne? It took months and months of war before that decision was ever made. Yet, that sounds like something you'd discuss early on while forming the alliance.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

19 hours ago, SFDanny said:

To your last point, I don't think so. Here is why.

We know this history is written by a maester with a rebel bent to his views - Baratheon / Lannister in particular. So when I read something written from such a source that gives us information counter to those interests, I pay particular attention. We learn here that there are some who blame Lord Rickard and his alliances he is critical in creating, but what our maester tells us in his dismissal of those unnamed sources about those claims is also critical. He states the aim of those alliances are not just an attempt to gain more influence in the royal court, but are aimed at getting the Great Houses to act together against "the Mad King's crimes." This man who is writing a book for the rebel kings that follow Aerys, thinks it is entirely ok to characterize the STAB alliance as formed against Aerys. Indeed, he makes it clear that was the purpose of the alliances. He lays the blame entirely at the feet of Aerys and his mad crimes. The problem here is not only that these same lords have sworn oaths of fealty to Aerys, including to accept his justice, but they have formed this alliances against Aerys before Aerys commits any crime against them. The first "crime" comes in the form of interfering in Jaime and Lysa's betrothal plans by stealing Jaime away from his father by making him a member of the Kingsguard. All the other crimes follow this, but all the alliances are formed before it. Far from being "misguided" these unnamed critics are clearly onto something.

more later

Hmm...we also need to account here for Yandel covering for the Maesters' conspiracy. The idea of "Southron Ambitions", whatever that may be, was put into Rickard's head (and the other LP's heads' too, I suspect) by the maesters. So there might be an element here of Yandel deflecting the blame on Rickard for coming together with these alliances, while in reality, it was Walys who actually suggested the Brandon - Catelyn alliance, and I'm guessing quite possibly had suggested that Ned be fostered in the Vale some years before.

So if "Southron Ambitions" was about secession, we need to now wonder why the maesters would be interested in such a thing as well, for them to have planted the seeds of this conspiracy in the heads of all the LPs in the first place. A possibility is that the Citadel just wanted to see the Targs off the throne and didn't care much what happened after that, and maybe the best way to get all the LPs to agree to this goal was to entice them with the prospect of being kings again.

It's interesting though that Yandel attributes this to Lord Rickard specifically,  and not the other LPs, for coming together with these alliances - why is he being posited as the "head" of this group? Quite curious. Was Steffon Baratheon involved too?

6 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

So Jaime visited Riverrun in the 277-279 AC time window, as far as I can tell. During which Tywin brought Cersei to court as well (278 AC, IIRC), in an attempt to get a royal marriage, according to Jaime, despite the fact that Aerys had already turned down the suggestion in 276 AC.

So if Tywin had been interested in joining the alliance against Aerys so early on, why insist bringing Cersei to court and refusing every single offer for her hand? Was this simply a case of Tywin trying to keep both options open? What message did that send to the alliance between the Starks, Baratheons, Arryns and Tully's? And why did these negotiations take so long?

Excellent rundown, RT - It's highly in character for Tywin to have been playing both sides. Fits with what he did in RR itself - sit out till you know who's winning.

I think the Brandon - Catelyn betrothal also took place during the same time period or slightly earlier (276 - 277 AC), so SA (Southron Ambitions) plan was definitely afoot when Jaime was sent to Riverrun.

6 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Why Viserys? Would Aegon not make more sense? Or Rhaegar? That would allow for them to keep the Dornish on their side as well. The more Kingdoms join them, the stronger they are, so why risk the anger of the Dornish (who are not at all likely with placing Viserys on the throne over one of their own (Aegon))? If they can get Dorne on their side, that would make it six regions versus two (the Reach and the Iron Islands), instead of five versus three. Better odds, I'd say. Especially considering the enormous strenght of the Reach, and the fact that, even if the Great Houses commit to a rebellion, it is by no means an assurance that all of their bannermen will follow them in battle (as seen during Robert's Rebellion in the stormlands, riverlands, and Vale).

This would involve Rhaegar knowing of the S.T.A.B alliance. In that case, was the Great Council of the Lords Rhaegar meant to call somehow related to this? Was he in talks with them previously itself to support him as king at such a council? Was the Tourney at Harrenhal supposed to be somewhat like the Whitewalls tourney, where Rhaegar had gathered his supporters for this purpose? I wonder.

There's a small issue with getting the Dornish on the side of the alliance however  - Tywin wanted to see one of his grandchildren on the throne. With married Rhaegar and Elia as King and Queen those hopes of his would be dashed. He could still have betrothed one of his great grandchildren to Aegon, maybe.

As an aside, do we know when exactly Hoster Tully proposed the marriage of his brother Brynden Tully to Bethany Redwyne? I'm guessing it might have been a couple of years after the War of Ninepenny Kings (he would have been around 18 at the time.) That would have brought in a strong additional link to the Reach. 

The Reach behaved very curiously during RR - Mace chose to take his huge army and sit outside Storm's End rather than make a meaningful contribution to the war. It seemed rather like he was waiting it out to see who wins as well, but didn't want to make it as obvious as Tywin.

Quote

And if the STAB alliance wants to put an end to the Targaryen rule, why had there been no idea whatsoever as to who to place on the throne? It took months and months of war before that decision was ever made. Yet, that sounds like something you'd discuss early on while forming the alliance.

Exactly. I'd say that Rickard Stark, Jon Arryn, Hoster Tully and possibly Steffon would definitely have discussed this during the formation of the alliance itself. If there was a plan to put a different king on the throne (I'm guessing it might have been Robert all along) they would have decided on it before moving against Aerys. If it was about secession, why did they change their plans all of a sudden just before the Trident? Robert never really wanted to be king, it must have been someone else (Jon Arryn is my best guess) who even put the idea into his head.

19 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Agreed. And I also think putting Rhaegar on the throne was definitely on the table for Tywin.

Yeah, I don't think we can rule out the possibility. The most likely one as I see it was that Tywin was playing both sides.

[SFDanny]

7 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I'm not entirely sure about this.

Jaime could see archers moving behind the merlons on the castle ramparts. Above them streamed the banners of House Tully, the silver trout defiant on its striped field of red and blue. But the highest tower flew a different flag; a long white standard emblazoned with the direwolf of Stark. “The first time I saw Riverrun, I was a squire green as summer grass,” Jaime told his cousin. “Old Sumner Crakehall sent me to deliver a message, one he swore could not be entrusted to a raven. Lord Hoster kept me for a fortnight whilst mulling his reply, and sat me beside his daughter Lysa at every meal.”

I think that this occurred during the really early stages of the discussions concerning a Jaime/Lysa match. What message could Lord Sumner have had for Hoster, and why was it so essential that it was Jaime who went to Riverrun to deliver it? I suspect that the message Sumner sent had been ordered by Tywin, so there would be an excuse to sent Jaime to the riverlands. Hoster taking a fortnight to write a reply is simply him stalling before sending Jaime back to Crakehall, and it goes without saying that seating Jaime and Lysa together as often as possible was on purpose as well.

So if this was indeed part of the negotiations (an early part, I would assume), then we know roughly when it happened.

Jaime began squiring for Lord Sumner at the age of eleven, so this cannot have been earlier than 277 AC, the year he turned eleven. 

At table he had ignored poor Lysa, whilst pressing Brynden Tully for tales of Maelys the Monstrous and the Ebon Prince. Ser Brynden was younger then than I am now, Jaime reflected, and I was younger than Peck.

Jaime recalls this in 300 AC, when he is thirty-three/thirty-four years old. Peck's age at that moment tells us little, as he is fifteen, but Brynden's age might tell us more. Brynden had been younger than thirty-four (the eldest Jaime can be at the moment), making him thirty-three or younger when Jaime visited Riverrun (assuming that Jaime is correct, of course), though we should assume that it would still have been possible for Brynden to have turned thirty-four later that year.

We also know that Brynden was born in or between 243 AC and 245 AC, which tells us that Jaime's visit to Riverrun cannot have occured any later than 279 AC (the last possible moment Brynden could have been thirty-three turning thirty-four - in this case he would have been born in 245 AC; having been born earlier would place Jaime's visit to Riverrun earlier as well). That's two years before Tywin and Hoster reached the "let's discuss the dowry" stage, at least.

So Jaime visited Riverrun in the 277-279 AC time window, as far as I can tell. During which Tywin brought Cersei to court as well (278 AC, IIRC), in an attempt to get a royal marriage, according to Jaime, despite the fact that Aerys had already turned down the suggestion in 276 AC.

So if Tywin had been interested in joining the alliance against Aerys so early on, why insist bringing Cersei to court and refusing every single offer for her hand? Was this simply a case of Tywin trying to keep both options open? What message did that send to the alliance between the Starks, Baratheons, Arryns and Tully's? And why did these negotiations take so long?

RT, I should have been clearer about the time I was referring to in the previous post. I'm sorry for any confusion, but what I meant by the sentence ending "he opens up negotiations with Hoster Tully for Jaime's marriage to Lysa" is not when Jaime is sent to Riverrun, but when Lord Hoster is invited to come and negotiate dowry. The first can be nothing more than a compliment to another High Lord, but the latter represents a serious interest by Tywin to join the STAB alliance. I take no issue with your reasoning here around the range possible for when Jaime goes to Riverrun; as usual you do a great job in laying out the timeline. I think it important to note, as you do so well, how early Tywin was looking into a possible marriage into the alliance. I would point out that the latest date in your range corresponds with the year in which Rhaegar's betrothal to Elia is announce. I can't say whether Tywin anticipates the announcement with sending Jaime to Riverrun or he reacts to it, or if there is no direct connection between the two events. I do think it is worthy of note in trying to figure out Tywin's mindset to keep both in mind. I would love to know whose idea it was - Tywin's or Hoster's - that Jaime come on that visit.

To your point of Cersei's sojourn with her father in King's Landing,I think there can be little doubt Tywin brings his daughter to court to show off her beauty to the still unmarried Rhaegar. Perhaps in the vain hope that some attraction could get the Prince to persuade Aerys where Tywin could not.

Regardless, Cersei's time at court ends in 281 before Harrenhal when her father hears of Aerys's offer of a white cloak to Jaime. During this time we know the negotiations between Hoster and Tywin are on going, and we have reason to believe Tywin's plans  for Cersei had changed or been put on hold. After all, it is the year before this that Rhaegar marries Elia. Perhaps Tywin had given up on his plans to marry her to the Crown Prince, or perhaps he was waiting for Elia to die. We don't know, but the marriage would be a reason to pursue other avenues for power. So, was he keeping "both options open"? I would put it more like he had put one plan on the back burner to see what time would hold, and pursued the new track. What he asked for a dowry is what interests me most from his activities during the period.

I would also love to know if there is any discussion with Jon Arryn regarding Elbert Arryn's status. I don't think we even know if he was married, but if he was not, it would make an awful lot of sense for the alliance to offer his hand to Cersei to bring Tywin into the fold. Ned or Stannis would have been of interest as well, but as second sons not as prestigious.

More later.

[Bael's Bastard]

It is clear that most of the ties between Great Houses were made before Aerys could have possibly been considered a threat to them. It is a claim made in hindsight but which doesn't really hold up.

Ned and Robert were fostered with Jon when Ned was nine, long before Aerys could have been considered a threat to any of them.

Robert's father seem to have remained Aerys' most trusted confidant pretty much up to his death in the late 270s, and even as late as TKOTLT indicent at Harrenhal Robert appears to have no opposition to Aerys.

The Brandon/Cat betrothal appears to have been around the time of Duskendale, though not clear whether it was before Aerys was captured, during, or after he wiped out those houses.

The Robert/Lyanna betrothal seems to be post-Duskendale, but it still isn't clear the Starks/Baratheons/Arryns had any reason to think Aerys was a danger to them, and the betrothal makes sense as a continuation of the relationships established in the early 270s, before Aerys would have been considered a threat. If Rickard, Jon, and Hoster have such intentions they don't seem to be known to Robert.

I think that the Tullys had to be brought into the war with marriages to two of the rebellion's three leaders only further demonstrates that there was no long planned, deep reasoned alliance formed between all these houses. Though it is entirely possible Aerys eventually came to believe they were formed against him, and the alliances did ultimately create the framework for the houses to come together against Aerys.

As for Rickard's southron ambitions, he betrothed his heir to a daughter of the house (Tully) that was previously set to marry a daughter to Jaehaerys (II), and betrothed his daughter to the lord of a house (Baratheon) that was previously set to marry a daughter to heir to the Iron Throne Duncan. If anything, he had positioned his descendants in the best positions to eventually marry into the Iron Throne.

But the bonds formed between Jon, Ned, and Robert ensured that they would band together after Ned's sister was kidnapped, his father and brother and Jon's nephew/heir were executed. And Ned and Jon were later able to add the Tullys to their side after the war had already started.

[wolfmaid7]

21 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

I can't see how it's "very obvious" they haven't discussed this before.

But I can see that one way or another, Ned's letting Robert believe what he wants to believe.

Oh i have no doubt Ned's letting Robert believe what he wants,the same with Cersie and even Cat.Everyone who cares to think about it can have at it.He's not saying nothing.

On 10/28/2016 at 7:14 AM, Kingmonkey said:

As has been pointed out before more than once, that assumes she was heavily pregnant whilst travelling. She may have been at the toj for some time.

There's also nothing to say that travel through the mountains has to be very rough. Remember this isn't about "the toj not being close to the pass", it's about the toj not being close to the main road running through the pass. There would doubtless be many other roads and pathways. Remember this is an area the size of a small country. It's perfectly possible for a route to be relatively easy for a small band to take but impractical to take an army through, and thus not likely to be watched.

I'm going with majority thinking on the matter for arguement sake and for showing how it doesn't make sense.The thinking is that she gave birth within 1-2 mths of the sack she either was traveling or we are going with her being there with the KGs for the entirety of her disappearance being at the toj.And as i pointed out their reply to Ned about them being far away when the sack happened makes this problematic because it doesn't sound as if they were at the toj when the sack happened.You see what i'm saying?

[wolfmaid7]

4 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Exactly. I'd say that Rickard Stark, Jon Arryn, Hoster Tully and possibly Steffon would definitely have discussed this during the formation of the alliance itself. If there was a plan to put a different king on the throne (I'm guessing it might have been Robert all along) they would have decided on it before moving against Aerys. If it was about secession, why did they change their plans all of a sudden just before the Trident? Robert never really wanted to be king, it must have been someone else (Jon Arryn is my best guess) who even put the idea into his head.

Coming in late to this,so i may be missing some key info in the discussions.I think Robert not wanting to be King is exactly the reason.He would be more  inclined to let others take the reigns on this one which is exactly what he did anyway.Right blood without the desire to rule and would be happy just to leave that to others.Robert himself said Ned or Jon should have been king.That choice i think was taken from him to be honest.He was going to be king no matter how much he hated it.