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US Elections: The Last Trump


mormont

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2 hours ago, Return of the Cookies said:

It depends on what type of offensiveness it is. As an example, offending the MSM appeals to a lot of disaffected Americans. They're rather smug and officious, and expect politicians to 'kiss the ring'. Trump just ignores this tradition.

Making fun of a reporter's physical disabilities? Not so much.

 

[sarcasm]Yeah, who doesn't enjoy a good joke at the expense of the disabled or minorities?[/sarcasm]

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57 minutes ago, Altherion said:

I've definitely found some of what he said personally offensive and I don't think insulting significantly more than half the population is the way to win elections (it's part of why he will almost certainly lose), but on the whole, I've enjoyed his performance simply because somebody finally showed the "I'm so offended and now you will suffer!" crowd that a large part of the population simply does not care.

If you think anyone was unaware of this, you've been asleep for years.

I'm not sure why the fact that people don't care about being assholes is supposed to be a good thing, but yeah, the people Trump has been insulting - generally, the people who do not have power in US society - are well aware that the people insulting them don't care about their feelings and don't like it when their victims stand up for themselves. Bullies never do.

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8 minutes ago, mormont said:

If you think anyone was unaware of this, you've been asleep for years.

Many people certainly suspected it, but the assumption was never put to a test on such a scale before. There are very, very few politically incorrect politicians. The reason the media initially reacted as they did is that the typical course of events is that the public shaming would be followed by a groveling apology and defeat. Even if Trump loses (as he almost certainly will), political correctness is not going to be as binding as it was before him.

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13 minutes ago, Altherion said:

Many people certainly suspected it, but the assumption was never put to a test on such a scale before. There are very, very few politically incorrect politicians. The reason the media initially reacted as they did is that the typical course of events is that the public shaming would be followed by a groveling apology and defeat. Even if Trump loses (as he almost certainly will), political correctness is not going to be as binding as it was before him.

The funny thing is, the major thing that "should" have sunk Trump cut against right-wing political correctness. 

Who appointed themselves guardians of the military, for example? Who lost their shit when Obama didn't salute with a coffee cup in hand? And yet they sat around and watched Trump drag John McCain in a gimp suit into unwilling scat games.

But yes, no one has ever been convinced that left-wing political correctness totally ruled the roost. Actors losing gigs for saying some dumb shit  (the most reliable form of the PC reaction) about "those people"  doesn't mean that the entire nation has its own beliefs calibrated that way (though,again, the other side has its sacred cows) even if it seems to feel that way to some people, the same way certain demographics export their problems with college campuses into a national issue.

 

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1 hour ago, Return of the Cookies said:

Obama's message was good, I agree with it* 100%. The thing is, Obama couldn't get his crowd to follow it. He didn't show leadership, which works in Trumps favor. It's a subconscious thing, but it's there. 

*If Trump had preached non violence at his rallies, he could have had a great talking point. The violence in San Bernadino and the Project Veritas videos could have been a great commercials. Instead, he told his supporters to punch protestors in the face. Genius.

That's not what Trump said happened. He said Obama was screaming at a protester. Screaming at him for a long time. "Frankly, it was a disgrace." Never happened. Bald faced lie.

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2 hours ago, Altherion said:

 I've enjoyed his performance simply because somebody finally showed the "I'm so offended and now you will suffer!" crowd that a large part of the population simply does not care.

Of course the cis white male enjoyed his bigotry. All he did was show a large population of this country is shit and that those ignorant pieces of shit will find it enjoyable and laugh at it or agree with it since they are not impacted by bigotry and on the receiving end of oppression.

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9 hours ago, Dr. Pepper said:

I'm now curious how they went in 2000. ;)

Anyway, poll out of Iowa has Trump +7. Not pretty, but sadly not unexpected. I'd trade it for North Carolina anyway.

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1 hour ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

That's not what Trump said happened. He said Obama was screaming at a protester. Screaming at him for a long time. "Frankly, it was a disgrace." Never happened. Bald faced lie.

At this point what I'm reading has gone so far off track that I don't even know if we can call it "grading on a curve". Trump outright lies and somehow he is the one who pulls some "subconscious" win out of this scenario?

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I just finished my mail-in ballot.  It took a couple of hours because there were so many minor decisions, especially judicial retentions, that were well below my radar until I got started.  It seems impossible that anyone in a polling booth could make anything other than broad brush or random decisions on all of those unless they brought notes with them -- just so many names.

Thankfully voting from home means I can research in real time.  Injustice Watch was pretty useful as a starting point, although always tricky to ask lawyers to rate judges.  

I wonder how many people will write-in Theo Epstein or Joe Maddon for the couple of local races for which it's permitted.  There's a not insignificant chance that one or both of them will find themselves elected to a minor public office next week. 

Civic duty done for now.  These are my first votes cast this millennium.  I finally have a voice in my country of residence. 

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18 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

I'm now curious how they went in 2000. ;)

Anyway, poll out of Iowa has Trump +7. Not pretty, but sadly not unexpected. I'd trade it for North Carolina anyway.

The national Scholastic poll of elementary students has correctly predicted the winner every time since around 1968. Sam Wang had the electoral vote map that would result from how the kids voted this year up on his site a few days ago and not only did South Carolina and Georgia go for Clinton but Utah and Idaho did too! Obviously Mormon kids have been hearing a lot of bad stuff about Trump from their parents. 

I do wonder if the kids will be as good predictors this year, though, simply because the ethnic distribution among kids is so different than that among adults now, with Hispanics being such a great part of the child population.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/02/demographics/#more-18439

 

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33 minutes ago, Iskaral Pust said:

 

 

Civic duty done for now.  These are my first votes cast this millennium.  I finally have a voice in my country of residence. 

Congrats. Sent mine in on Tuesday, normally I like to go in person, but my schedule is too weird right now.

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1 hour ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

I'm now curious how they went in 2000. ;)

Anyway, poll out of Iowa has Trump +7. Not pretty, but sadly not unexpected. I'd trade it for North Carolina anyway.

They predicted Bush.  Accurate predictions since Nixon. 

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