NFL 2016 Week 9: Once You Go Dak, You Never Go Back

[sperry]

32 minutes ago, Rhom said:

Can you do flex scheduling for a Thursday game though?

At the beginning of the year, if you had scheduled Green Bay and Cincinnati for this week on a Thursday; wouldn't you expect two teams in the heat of a playoff race?  Instead, you would have two mediocre teams.

After typing that I decided to look at this week's games and get a real example... Monday Night Football this week.  Colts v Jets.  Before the season started, many people felt both of those teams would be solid playoff contenders.  Now here we are in week 13 and both are on the outside looking in.

Scheduling is tough in the NFL where everything is designed to allow teams to rise from the bottom to the top and vice versa.

 

Can't do much about Bengals Packers, but that's not hte games your'e getting for the most part.  Jagz-Titans for the second straight year, Zona San Francisco, Green Bay-Chicago, Miami-Cincinnati, Jets-Buffalo, Atlanta-Tampa Bay, Cleveland-Baltimore.

 

The only game that looked good on paper was Houston-New England.

[Jaime L]

How many of you stuck out Chiefs-Broncos to the end? I mean couldn't have been more dreary at halftime and I get why people would've given up on it, but the 4th quarter and OT were bonkers. So many great moments and maybe the most fitting end to that game imaginable. Hope I wasn't the only one watching it. 

23 hours ago, TickleMyToes said:

That Skins game scared the crap out of me. You guys look real good, too. Honestly, never thought much of Cousins, but Thursday he showed me what he can do. And Reed? Holy shit, is all i'll say about him. It was the game i was worried about most in the past 2 months, really. 

Reed doesn't possess the skill of "health" but it's impossible to say he's not tough after what he did on Thanksgiving in immense pain. Really gutty performance.

23 hours ago, Trebla said:

One interesting thing is the remaining teams on the NFC East's schedule:

The Giants have @Steelers, Cowboys, Lions, @Eagles, @Redskins.

Washington has @Cardinals, @Eagles, Panthers, @Bears, Giants. 

Philly has tonight vs Packers, @Bengals, Redskins, @Ravens, Giants, Cowboys

Dallas has @Minnesota, @Giants, Bucs, Lions, @Eagles

The Giants might have the toughest schedule and have Washington right behind them. Dallas' schedule is no cakewalk but they should have a big enough lead not to blow the division and still looking good for home field advantage, especially with Seattle about to lose to Tampa. Washington had the 1st place schedule from last year but the Packers and Cards have regressed big time. Philly is at .500 but still lurking. It will be interesting to see if the East can get not just 2 but 3 teams in the playoffs. 

 

With Seattle's loss I think Dallas already has homefield throughout the playoffs wrapped up. Actually considering Dallas' only loss is against the Giants, they could conceivably catch the Cowboys if they beat them again in 2 weeks but they're the only ones and I don't think they're good enough. 

I remain concerned about Washington's schedule. That game against the Eagles will be their third straight road game. Only 1 easy game in 5 and two sleeping giants in the Panthers and Cardinals who are good bets to run roughshod over this smoke and mirrors defense. It's starting to look like the Bucs have designs on that 2nd wildcard spot after "wow" wins over the Chiefs/Seahawks although their schedule the rest of the way isn't easy either. 

[Joe Pesci]

1 hour ago, Jaime L said:

How many of you stuck out Chiefs-Broncos to the end? I mean couldn't have been more dreary at halftime and I get why people would've given up on it, but the 4th quarter and OT were bonkers. So many great moments and maybe the most fitting end to that game imaginable. Hope I wasn't the only one watching it.

I did. It was insane in the best possible way. I liked Kubiak having the stones to go for the win despite the kick being over 60 yards, even though it ultimately backfired on him. Hell of an ending.

[Jaime L]

1 hour ago, Joe Pesci said:

I did. It was insane in the best possible way. I liked Kubiak having the stones to go for the win despite the kick being over 60 yards, even though it ultimately backfired on him. Hell of an ending.

Nice. Yeah, that's exactly my take. Santos banking in a FG off the freaking post was the only way a game that batshit could end. I was fine with him going for the kick too. Just felt like from everything we'd seen from him, McManus had at least a 50% chance of making it.

[Jaime L]

Doug Pederson just challenged a 2 yard completion that would've made it 2nd and 8. I don't even have a joke here. 

[Guest]

DeVonte Adams looks very Dez-like when he's playing confident and making plays.

 

ETA;  Did I seriously just hear that this is Green Bay's first rushing TD by a running back all season?  Holy shit, I knew it was bad but...

[Maithanet]

10 hours ago, Jaime L said:

Doug Pederson just challenged a 2 yard completion that would've made it 2nd and 8. I don't even have a joke here. 

Not to mention punting from Packers territory when down 11 with 10 minutes left in the game.  The Packers responded to such generosity with an 8 minute field goal drive that ended any hope of a comeback. 

Watching that game I just could not understand how the Eagles have the #1 defense in DVOA.  Nothing about that defense looked good.  The Packers only had the ball for 6 meaningful possessions (not counting kneeldowns).  Those were: 10 play td, 9 play td, 12 play punt, 5 play fg, 13 play td, 17 play fg.  Three touchdowns, two field goals, one punt, 0 turnovers, 25 first downs surrendered.  That is the #1 defense in the league?!

[JonSnow4President]

16 hours ago, Jaime L said:

How many of you stuck out Chiefs-Broncos to the end? I mean couldn't have been more dreary at halftime and I get why people would've given up on it, but the 4th quarter and OT were bonkers. So many great moments and maybe the most fitting end to that game imaginable. Hope I wasn't the only one watching it. 

 

I just got made a mod for a fantasy forum, and primetime games are by far the highest traffic coupled with the highest likelihood of posts that need to be taken care of to keep things organized (like I imagine the mods here have to do during show season in the book threads).  Means I watch what I can without really watching.  

Like Pesci, I love the call.  McManus has a leg on him, and has been fairly accurate.  A punt still isn't a guarantee of a tie by any stretch.  It didn't work out, but I admire the mentality of playing to win.  Don't think I've ever seen an OT gamewinner bounce off the upright and still go through the uprights though.  

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

Eric Dickerson Joins the Jeff Fisher Fan Club...

http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/dickerson-ill-never-go-to-rams-games-as-long-as-fisher-is-coaching/ar-AAkTzvu?li=BBnb7Kz&utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

[Bronn Stone]

6 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Watching that game I just could not understand how the Eagles have the #1 defense in DVOA.  Nothing about that defense looked good.  The Packers only had the ball for 6 meaningful possessions (not counting kneeldowns).  Those were: 10 play td, 9 play td, 12 play punt, 5 play fg, 13 play td, 17 play fg.  Three touchdowns, two field goals, one punt, 0 turnovers, 25 first downs surrendered.  That is the #1 defense in the league?!

I would not put too much emphasis on one game.  The Packers went into that game far more motivated than an "average" NFL team.  They'd been humiliated several weeks in a row.  That performance was pure pride on the part of Rodgers and the gang.  They were fired up like a college team during rivalry week.

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, Bronn Stone said:

I would not put too much emphasis on one game.  The Packers went into that game far more motivated than an "average" NFL team.  They'd been humiliated several weeks in a row.  That performance was pure pride on the part of Rodgers and the gang.  They were fired up like a college team during rivalry week.

Why weren't the Eagles fired up?  I mean, they were 5-5, and with a win would be only half a game back from the playoffs.  Now they're in ninth, and with three tough divisional games left, they're probably finished.

I don't think I'm putting too much emphasis on one game, I expect the purported #1 defense in the league to be consistently good.  Sure, some weeks they may only be OK and others dominant, but there is no way you could describe that effort as OK.  They were terrible, playing at home, on prime time. 

[Bronn Stone]

NFL teams as fired up as that are as rare as overtime games.  Most teams have zero per year.  Fired up like a college team is not the recipe for winning consistently.

[TickleMyToes]

How can Philly be the #1 defense when Eagles, Cowboys and Giants have all three allowed 213 points through 11 games, which is a weird stat by the way. lol 

4 out of their last 5 games Philly has allowed 26 or more points. Not really #1 material. 

[Joe Pesci]

4 hours ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

Eric Dickerson Joins the Jeff Fisher Fan Club...

http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/dickerson-ill-never-go-to-rams-games-as-long-as-fisher-is-coaching/ar-AAkTzvu?li=BBnb7Kz&utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

What a shit show. I'd say Dickerson shouldn't have to worry about this for next season, but it is Jeff Fisher, and the Anti-Christ fools all so he'll probably be coaching the Rams again...

[JonSnow4President]

3 hours ago, TickleMyToes said:

How can Philly be the #1 defense when Eagles, Cowboys and Giants have all three allowed 213 points through 11 games, which is a weird stat by the way. lol 

4 out of their last 5 games Philly has allowed 26 or more points. Not really #1 material. 

I'm not one of the guys that watches all the tape, but the defense is judged independently of the offense, while points are a total team effort is my understanding. A defense set up with a turnover that has to defend a 10 yard field and is on the field all game isn't judged the same as a defense that is constantly set up with long fields and plenty of resting time.  

FWIW, 213 points is good for 5-7th in points allowed, so it's not like they're playing awfully in that stat. 

[TickleMyToes]

1 hour ago, JonSnow4President said:

I'm not one of the guys that watches all the tape, but the defense is judged independently of the offense, while points are a total team effort is my understanding. A defense set up with a turnover that has to defend a 10 yard field and is on the field all game isn't judged the same as a defense that is constantly set up with long fields and plenty of resting time.  

FWIW, 213 points is good for 5-7th in points allowed, so it's not like they're playing awfully in that stat. 

I agree, not saying they are bad at all, just that to me a number 1 defense doesn't allow that many points in 4 out of 5 games, no matter the situation. Only reason they were rated that high in the first place, to me anyways, is they cause turnovers. Which is great and all, but if you let teams constantly score 26+ points, it'll be tough to win every game, especially with a dink and dunk offense like they have. 

[unJon]

Philly doesn't have the best defense by any real metric I'm aware of. And their rush defense is very middle of the pack. 

[Jaime L]

So, who's the MVP at this point?

At one point it looked like it was clearly going to be Brady who despite missing 4 games was so far and away better than everyone, that he still seemed deserving. But now that he's slowed down, doesn't seem as compelling. 

Feel like the contenders at this point are: Dak, Zeke, Brady, Matt Ryan and Derek Carr. I talked about Brady already. Feel like Dak and Zeke are set to split votes and Matt Ryan and Derek Carr are having very good seasons but if either became MVP, they'd feel like among the weakest MVPs in recent memory.

But was looking at FO's stats, which are far from perfect, but thought it was interesting Dak is now #3 in DYAR and #1 in DVOA. On a per play basis he's the most efficient QB in football. More than that, if you strip out the running game and look at Dallas' passing offense alone, it's the 2nd most efficient in football behind NE. But setting aside what NE has done this year, it's the most efficient passing offense in the NFL since the Broncos in 2013 when Peyton Manning threw 55 TDs and set all kinds of records. 

It's a long way of saying Dak is really good. Yeah he has a ton of help but what QB in a great offense doesn't? Zeke is a huge benefit to him, but his running skills make him a huge benefit to Zeke too. Heck, I don't even know if he's the OROY because of Zeke. But is he the MVP?

Or is it Brady? With Gronk ailing, Brady's the only real difference maker on the Patriots, no? And his numbers in 8 games are eerily similar across the board to Dak's in 12 games. So very likely could be overthinking it. It's like the Mike Trout caveat - let's stop twisting ourselves into pretzels to argue for someone else because of "context" when the guy who is the best, and has always been the best, is right in front of our faces. 

Just two things: 1) Dak's numbers are insanely good - FO went through the numbers and there's never been a rookie QB performance, statistically, close to this good (not even RG3) 2) voters will want to reward the Cowboys for this completely unexpected season. 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

 I'd vote Dak, but maybe kinda sorta cause I'd hate to see Brady win another. Also I think it's fair to say that he's operating at somewhat of an advantage in missing a quarter of the season. His attrition rate isn't as harsh as everyone else, right?

[Joe Pesci]

I'd normally say I don't see them giving the MVP to a rookie, but there is a glaring lack of big time performances this year. Is Dak the most efficient due to the system they run and not taking chances? Someone who watches the Cowboys regularly could maybe answer this since I honestly don't know. If they keep winning I think it's hard to not give it to him. Maybe Cousins comes into the conversation if he keeps putting up big numbers and the Skins keep winning as well.