I thought Lysa/Petyr sent the assassin after Bran?

[ravenous reader]

On 12/3/2016 at 2:00 PM, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

I don't think it counts as "spoiling" if it's about the books already written and printed.

I think what @The Hammer of Justice meant by that was more in the sense of GRRM subsequently 'propping up' the text with explanations, instead of letting the text speak for itself.  To continue my building construction metaphor, the completed structure should be able to stand alone without being propped up by scaffolding added on after the fact!  But, then again, GRRM is a 'gardener not an architect'...

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

9 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Mayhaps LF entrusted the box to Joffrey with instructions to somehow get it to Luwin unobtrusively? Would he trust Joffrey with such a scheme?

No. I don't think LF would trust a message which implicates the Lannisters as the killers of Jon Arryn with a Lannister.

15 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I'm thinking that if LF had someone he trusted in WF to deliver the box, then that person would have sent the catspaw, not Joffrey.

Like I said earlier, this is difficult to argue against other than the evidence pointing to Joff.

I think the result GRRM wanted the reader to come up with is that it was Joff (however dissatisfying it may be). 

[ravenous reader]

37 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Mayhaps LF entrusted the box to Joffrey with instructions to somehow get it to Luwin unobtrusively? Would he trust Joffrey with such a scheme?

 

I think LF is perceptive enough to know he can't rely on Joffrey to intelligently execute any scheme!  Planning a hit on someone in their own heavily fortified home while one is a guest is more complicated than ordering a headsman to behead someone.

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I'm thinking that if LF had someone he trusted in WF to deliver the box, then that person would have sent the catspaw, not Joffrey.

This is the more likely scenario.  But then how did that person get hold of that ever-so-unique dagger...it always comes back to that Valyrian steel weapon which GRRM so carefully inserted!

[John Suburbs]

31 minutes ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

No. I don't think LF would trust a message which implicates the Lannisters as the killers of Jon Arryn with a Lannister.

Like I said earlier, this is difficult to argue against other than the evidence pointing to Joff.

I think the result GRRM wanted the reader to come up with is that it was Joff (however dissatisfying it may be). 

I hope not. If that is the plan, then there is still plenty of time to simply reveal LF as the instigator of the assassination. It would still conform perfectly with the plot -- even more perfectly that the "Joffrey-admires-Robert" theory.

I think the result he wanted to come up with is that the question of "who" has been solved, but the "why" is still unknown.

[John Suburbs]

24 minutes ago, ravenous reader said:

I think LF is perceptive enough to know he can't rely on Joffrey to intelligently execute any scheme!  Planning a hit on someone in their own heavily fortified home while one is a guest is more complicated than ordering a headsman to behead someone.

This is the more likely scenario.  But then how did that person get hold of that ever-so-unique dagger...it always comes back to that Valyrian steel weapon which GRRM so carefully inserted!

Yes to both, which is why I think it likely that LF sent someone in the royal party to deliver the box but do nothing more. At the same time, he lit the fire on Joffrey's mind that one of the Stark children must die.

[Colonel Green]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

At the same time, he lit the fire on Joffrey's mind that one of the Stark children must die.

That doesn't make any sense as a course of action for him, though.  His goal is to lure Ned south.  Trying to instigate a murder while the party is northward would run a high risk of, at best, Ned not taking the job, and at worst, Cersei, Jaime and co. all being seized by the Starks at Winterfell, at which point the whole plan to ruin House Stark goes belly up because Ned then has Tywin by the balls.

Littlefinger already set in motion his plan in regard of the Starks, which is to frame the Lannisters for Arryn's murder and thus insure that Ned comes south.  Anything else just gets in the way of that, potentially.

Moreover, if Littlefinger had any sort of calculated scheme about an assassin in advance, they would not have chosen a murder weapon that required an easily-disprovable lie on his part about its ownership.  He could have set up an appropriate weapon in advance that would survive any attempts at independent verification.

[The Hammer of Justice]

CRACKPOT ALERT!!!! 

Bloodraven orchestrated Bran's assassination attempt. He reached through Joffrey in his dreams and planted the idea that Bran should die (you know, like the movie Inception), resulting in a failed attempt because BR knew Summer would save him. The attempt would eventually cause a chain of events leading to the wotfk, the destruction of winterfell and Bran having to leave WF to meet the three eyed crow.

yeah..........probably not haha

On 03/12/2016 at 5:00 PM, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

I don't think it counts as "spoiling" if it's about the books already written and printed.

Yes, but if he had not said the matter would be solved on book 3, nobody would have believed that Joffrey was the responsible, so he directly influenced the readers interpretation of events. Also, I think GRRM said that before ASOS, so it is a spoiler. Or Am I mistaken?

On 03/12/2016 at 11:48 AM, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

The Bran assassination mystery has holes no matter who you try and put it on.

The wisest post so far!

That's why I think GRRM should write something else in the upcoming books to make it more clear.

[Red Man Racey]

13 hours ago, The Hammer of Justice said:

CRACKPOT ALERT!!!! 

Bloodraven orchestrated Bran's assassination attempt. He reached through Joffrey in his dreams and planted the idea that Bran should die (you know, like the movie Inception), resulting in a failed attempt because BR knew Summer would save him. The attempt would eventually cause a chain of events leading to the wotfk, the destruction of winterfell and Bran having to leave WF to meet the three eyed crow.

yeah..........probably not haha

Ahhhh, but you're missing the most important part - how did BR know that Summer would save Bran? The answer is quite obvious:  because BR was warging Summer.

The logic is undeniable:  Summer is named after the season, summer is hot, fire is also hot, fire is associated with the color red, blood is red, Bloodraven!!!!!

LOL

[John Suburbs]

On ‎12‎/‎5‎/‎2016 at 6:13 PM, Colonel Green said:

That doesn't make any sense as a course of action for him, though.  His goal is to lure Ned south.  Trying to instigate a murder while the party is northward would run a high risk of, at best, Ned not taking the job, and at worst, Cersei, Jaime and co. all being seized by the Starks at Winterfell, at which point the whole plan to ruin House Stark goes belly up because Ned then has Tywin by the balls.

Littlefinger already set in motion his plan in regard of the Starks, which is to frame the Lannisters for Arryn's murder and thus insure that Ned comes south.  Anything else just gets in the way of that, potentially.

Moreover, if Littlefinger had any sort of calculated scheme about an assassin in advance, they would not have chosen a murder weapon that required an easily-disprovable lie on his part about its ownership.  He could have set up an appropriate weapon in advance that would survive any attempts at independent verification.

Do we know that LF wanted Ned as hand? I can't find anything in the text to support that. It seems to me that Ned is a virtual unknown to LF, while Jaime is someone whom he has already sized up as erratic and hot-headed -- just the kind of person to sow chaos in the 7 kingdoms.

How can you be so sure the frame-up was meant to draw Ned south? We never see the contents of the letter. For all we know, the hope was that Cat would get so scared she would prevail on Ned to reject the appointment. Besides, preventing Ned from taking the job is only the story that LF would give to Joff to get him to act. It probably didn't matter to LF at all what Ned did, as long as his suspicion of Lannisters is red-hot.

If Ned finds out the Lanns killed JA, that would spark a major conflict, but it would most likely be handled in court with Robert as judge. But if Ned finds out that they killed his son, that has all the makings for open war.

Only a VS knife that can easily be traced back to the royal party is sufficient to cast blame on the Lannisters. An ordinary knife could have come from anywhere.Why LF chose to tell the lie about the ownership is beyond me. He could just as easily have said it was Robert's, which would implicate the Lannisters, since Ned would not believe that Robert would kill one of his children. LF pinned it specifically on Tyrion -- probably because he recognizes that T is one of the few people that can match wits with him. But it was a huge risk nonetheless, subverted by nothing more than a chance encounter with Cat on the King's Road. 

 

[Colonel Green]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Do we know that LF wanted Ned as hand? 

Yes, we do.  The whole plan with Jon Arryn makes no sense otherwise.  He doesn't know Ned personally, but he knows his reputation, and he certainly would know that Ned is not going to ignore the murder of his second father and the apparent threat to his foster brother.  Littlefinger's whole plan hinges on pitting factions against each other to trigger an open war, and to destroy all the houses he considers to have spited him.  Jaime as Hand makes no sense from that angle; Jaime is obviously not going to investigate his own incestuous relationship with his sister.  Moreover, if Ned doesn't go south where he can be cut off from his support base and destroyed, he's sitting pretty in Winterfell with a large army, completely immune to Littlefinger.

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If Ned finds out the Lanns killed JA, that would spark a major conflict, but it would most likely be handled in court with Robert as judge. But if Ned finds out that they killed his son, that has all the makings for open war.

Ned finding out the Lannisters killed Jon Arryn would only be handled in court with Robert as a judge if Ned and Robert win.  Littlefinger intends that they lose.  

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Only a VS knife that can easily be traced back to the royal party is sufficient to cast blame on the Lannisters. 

Also, to this point, the knife is only recovered if the assassin fails or is caught, which he couldn't have known about.  Then you're just left with a kid dying, and Littlefinger knows absolutely nothing about the circumstances that would lead the Starks to ever connect it to the Lannisters.

[John Suburbs]

On ‎12‎/‎6‎/‎2016 at 11:05 PM, Colonel Green said:

Yes, we do.  The whole plan with Jon Arryn makes no sense otherwise.  He doesn't know Ned personally, but he knows his reputation, and he certainly would know that Ned is not going to ignore the murder of his second father and the apparent threat to his foster brother.  Littlefinger's whole plan hinges on pitting factions against each other to trigger an open war, and to destroy all the houses he considers to have spited him.  Jaime as Hand makes no sense from that angle; Jaime is obviously not going to investigate his own incestuous relationship with his sister.  Moreover, if Ned doesn't go south where he can be cut off from his support base and destroyed, he's sitting pretty in Winterfell with a large army, completely immune to Littlefinger.

 

Sorry, but we don't "know" any of that. Bringing Ned south separates him from his army, so LF could just as easily been counting on Ned to stay put and then march on the Lannisters when Bran or one of his other children were killed. Just because Ned decided to take the job doesn't mean that was LF's plan all along. Jaime as hand, meanwhile, puts even more chaos in the heart of King's Landing because Robert would support Ned while his Queen and his Hand would support their father.

On ‎12‎/‎6‎/‎2016 at 11:05 PM, Colonel Green said:

Ned finding out the Lannisters killed Jon Arryn would only be handled in court with Robert as a judge if Ned and Robert win.  Littlefinger intends that they lose.  

I'm not sure what you mean by "lose." Lose what, the power struggle in KL? Petyr betrayed Ned only after Ned rejected his proposal to support Joffrey, so to say that he was setting Ned up to lose right from the start is unfounded. My point was, the murder of Jon Arryn might not have been enough to spark the conflict that LF wants, but the murder of one of Ned's children would if the blame were to fall on the Lannisters. It was in response to your earlier statement that LF doesn't need to assassinate a Stark child because the Arryn frame-up was already underway.

On ‎12‎/‎6‎/‎2016 at 11:05 PM, Colonel Green said:

Also, to this point, the knife is only recovered if the assassin fails or is caught, which he couldn't have known about.  Then you're just left with a kid dying, and Littlefinger knows absolutely nothing about the circumstances that would lead the Starks to ever connect it to the Lannisters.

A child dying by some random cause would not implicate the Lannisters, but a letter implicating the Lannisters of murder in KL and then a Stark child being murdered in Winterfell gets the ball rolling. Who knows what else LF may have planned to sow further discord between the houses.

[Colonel Green]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but we don't "know" any of that. Bringing Ned south separates him from his army, so LF could just as easily been counting on Ned to stay put and then march on the Lannisters when Bran or one of his other children were killed. Just because Ned decided to take the job doesn't mean that was LF's plan all along. Jaime as hand, meanwhile, puts even more chaos in the heart of King's Landing because Robert would support Ned while his Queen and his Hand would support their father.

If Ned had evidence that the Lannisters killed his son sufficient to mobilize an army and march south, then Robert would imprison Cersei and Jaime and the Starks win, end of story.  Ned is only vulnerable in the south when he's not in the field.

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I'm not sure what you mean by "lose." Lose what, the power struggle in KL? Petyr betrayed Ned only after Ned rejected his proposal to support Joffrey, so to say that he was setting Ned up to lose right from the start is unfounded. 

Littlefinger never intended to side with Ned.  He was dangling a suggestion that Ned would never have taken, and regardless, that wouldn't have stopped him from betraying Ned even if he had.  It's a personal matter for him.

[the trees have eyes]

On 03/12/2016 at 0:37 PM, The Hammer of Justice said:

you know, It's been awhile since I visited this thread because I had anything else to say. But it turns out, as I started my first re-read of the series a couple of days ago and I reached a very interesting passage in the book which I had not catch on the first read. This is from AGOT: Catelyn II, when master Luwin arrives to give Catelyn the letter from Lysa accusing the Lannisters of killing Jon Arryn.

 

This is interesting because, we know Lysa wrote the letter at LF's command, and it was left there by someone. So, it must have been delivered by someone working for LF, he would never trust this letter to anyone else. This implies that LF did have an agent at Winterfell. This agent could easily have hired the catspaw on LF's behalf.

oh right, but GRRM "said" it was joffrey right. So we should just swallow it and move on.

My conclusion: GRRM messed up the narrative and have to come up with a way to close this subject. But, there are 2 books left (so far....) and I hope GRRM realizes the inconsistency in the plot and write something else to help make things more clear.

Also, I think GRRM should shut up and stop spoiling his own books. =/

Well, what are you asking us to swallow?  If the author says it's x then it's x whether or not it's a particularly satisfying answer.  For the record he did not "say" it was Joffrey, he wrote both Jaime and Tyrion independently coming to the conclusion that it was Joffrey.  To those who still persist in doubting it was Joffrey some forum posters link the statement he made where he "said" we would find out who was responsible in ASOS.

IMO the reader is meant to deuce from the text that it was Joffrey as this is where the author and the text lead us.  The reader is not meant to be stumped by this as if it was advanced mathematics or a particularly difficult passage of foreign language translation and appeal to the author as teacher / umpire to explain what it means or insist that the issue is not resolved.  The answers are all in the text.

It's worth remembering that AGOT was written in the early 1990s so these events are over 20 years old and the mystery was resolved in ASOS published in 2000.  Given the extent of the writing task to finish the series I think it highly unlikely that GRRM is aware that certain readers want "clarification" over this any more than over whether Rhaegar is dead or any other incident in the story we pick over on the forums.

On 03/12/2016 at 6:33 PM, ravenous reader said:

I never said he's not fond of Robert.  If you've read some of my other observations regarding their relationship on other threads, you'll see I go even further in asserting that Robert, not Catelyn nor Lyanna nor any other, was the person Ned most loved in this world and that this love destroyed him (because, as GRRM has noted, the things we love are our downfall).  I would even say Robert is the love of Ned's life, although not in a sexual sense!  It's possible to love someone, however, yet at the same time come to realize you can't really trust that person, can't rely on that person to act in your best interests, maybe even realize you fear that person and his dangerous foibles.  I surmise that's the dilemma Ned found himself in with Robert.

Frankly, what concerns me is not so much the credibility of Cersei being dumb or not being dumb enough to choose the wrong dagger, but Cersei being so dumb she failed to plan Bran's demise at all!  Failing to eliminate Bran has been the dumbest move of all -- and it's going to come back to haunt her (as I said, her words to Jaime are prescient, 'an angry cripple, how terrifying...').  It's just so strange that GRRM would otherwise paint her as a caricature of the relentlessly wicked witch, consumed by envy, fear, malice and avarice, hypervigilant, controlling, vindictive and hellbent on eliminating the slightest competition with her trademark paranoiac pre-emptive strike -- yet in this one most critical instance, she just accepts that Jaime has refused her request to kill Bran, based on Catelyn being at the bedside day and night so nothing can be done, therefore she must accept her fate.  When have you ever known Cersei to accept her fate with equanimity?  That is the whole point of her prophecy obsession in the good old Targaryen tradition, where she just can't resist opening that door and is most scathing when Pycelle cautions her not to 'go there'. 

Except the answer isn't useless -- it's the lesson she needs to learn and consistently fails at.  Refraining from opening that door is equivalent to giving Bran a reprieve.  Just very out of character-- to the point of not being very believable.  

I agree it's a long shot.  Another remote possibility is that she got Joff to steal it for her and give it to the guy, with the instruction he should choose something plain, not realising his fatal affliction of Valyrian steel unfamiliarity would zone in on Littlefinger-now-Robert's one-and-only special knife.  

I'm not sure Joff knows exactly what Tyrion means, since ellipses mean something is left unspoken!  However, we can say that the description of the dagger triggers some insecurity in Joffrey, puts him on edge and on the defensive, from which we may intuit (as GRRM intended us to do) -- Aha! Gotcha!  That doesn't necessarily mean that Joffrey knows it was used to kill Bran, or if he does, that he's the only one implicated in setting up the plot.  Perhaps he knows he stole it for his mother (or another).   

I did acknowledge the ellipsis was significant, as I believe all his ellipses are, especially the ones I highlighted.  Where the confusion creeps in is that I'm approaching the text from a dual position, assuming a meta-position in addition to suspending my disbelief and immersing myself in the story as if it 'really happened.'  Because I think the way GRRM has manipulated us into arriving at the Joffrey-conclusion is flimsy and forced, meaning I'm finding it difficult to suspend disbelief, I'm therefore resorting to the meta-position of critiquing the text, which implies that part of the text hasn't been constructed seamlessly.  In other words, if the construction is seamless then one would not normally be distracted by the awareness that it's been constructed by someone who has put various building blocks together in a certain way according to their own agenda.  I'm sorry if it causes offense to some that I don't think he's an infallible writer.  That doesn't mean I don't find the saga enchanting, or I wouldn't be on this forum, but sometimes he slips up a bit.  It's hard convincing your audience of the fidelity of the illusion you're weaving for them; it's hard keeping all those balls in the air without dropping one; if it weren't, then more of us would be writers. 

 

Ned and Robert were fosterd together as brothers.  I don't see any reason to think that Ned loved Robert any more than, say Lyanna, or Catelyn and his children.  The difference in their personalities is striking and as adults they have grown into very different characters.  It's like the childhood best friend or university buddy who was ever present for a few years but then you grew up, moved on with your life and the friendship faded as you realised you don't have as much in common as it seemed.  I'm not buying the bromance as an enduring obsession.

Cersei is not being dumb though as I've addressed before. She is making the calculation that 1) Bran will not wake and talk, 2) if he does wake he will not remember or understand what he saw, 3) that if he does remember and can talk he will be dismissed as unreliable, perahps even put up to it by the grasping Ned Stark, enemy of the Lannisters - this is how factions and politics works after all.4) that even if Ned believes Bran he has zero evidence and lacks the political position or allies to take on the Queen - who is on his side at KL after all?  There are good reasons to do nothing.  Though your personal reading of the situation is different it doesn't mean it isn't pragmatic and sensible.

When does she request Jaime kill Bran and when does he refuse?  I don't recollect this happening.  And clearly she is not "accepting her fate", she is banking on the Starks not knowing what happened and if they do find out she is banking on being able to defeat Robert and them before they can defeat her.  And guess what?  This is exactly what happens........

No.  What's out of character is the idea she would involve her precious Joffrey in a harebrained plot to murder Bran, a boy in a coma, while surrounded by guards in Winterfell.  This is not remotely plausible.

On the contrary.  We do not need to intuit "Aha Gotcha!" as we have both Tyrion and Jaime reach the conclusion separately.  You can try and bend over backwards and say Tyrion got it wrong and that Joffrey snitched a dagger and is worried that his now dead father or indulgent mother will reprimand him, the king, for this minor and insignificant act (everything in the royal armoury is now his after all) or we can accept that GRRM is leading us to the conclusion that Tyrion has rumbled Joffrey's act.  And that he confirms that with Jaime and Cersei discussing how Joffrey, the callous boy who cut open a pregnant cat and showed his father the dead foetal kittens, heard his father talking about it being better that Bran was dead and putting down wounded animals and decided to do just that.  I get that you don't like this exaplantion and may never accept it but it's remarkably straightforward.

Is the last an acceptance of Joffrey's guilt despite your general dissatisfaction with GRRM's explanations for his and Cersei's actions / non-actions or is this still a live one for you with LF ready to spill the beans as Lysa did about Jon Arryn in ASOS?

On 05/12/2016 at 8:05 PM, John Suburbs said:

This is what I mean, though, when I say there are all these disconnects when it comes to pinning the deed on Cersei. But there aren't any with Littlefinger:

He doesn't need to know anything about Bran's fall or anything else going on at Winterfell

It leaves Joffrey free to come up with his own stupid plan

It explains Joff's behavior toward Tyrion at the wedding and his casual attitude toward Robert's death

It fulfills the objectives of the Game's most talented player

It conforms to Jaime and Cersei's denials of involvement

And it satisfies everything that GRRM has said on the matter

LF has Lysa in his pocket and Lysa has told Catelyn the Lannisters murdered Jon Arryn.  Ned's whole arc in AGOT is finding out who killed Jon Arryn and even though he never does he uncovers the explosive cause of conflict - the illegitimacy of Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella.  There simply is no reason or need to try and kill one of Ned's children to sow the seeds of chaos, they were sowed long ago and are ripening now.  LF exploits certain situations, Jon Arryn intends to foster Robet with Stannis so he has Lysa off him and blame the Lannisters to set things up, but he is not behind every event that happens.  Bran happened upon Jaime and Cersei and Jaime reacted.  There is zero reason for LF to have planned any hit on Bran before his fall and indeed, having Bran alive afterwards to blame Jaime is a more certain way of causing conflict than having Bran murdered and silenced.  LF is smart.  Having Lysa slip poison in Jon's wine is low risk - no one ever suspects either of them.  Having Joffrey or a some footpad try to murder Bran half a continent away in his father's stronghold is high risk and completely unnecessary for his plans.

On 05/12/2016 at 8:37 PM, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

No. I don't think LF would trust a message which implicates the Lannisters as the killers of Jon Arryn with a Lannister.

Like I said earlier, this is difficult to argue against other than the evidence pointing to Joff.

I think the result GRRM wanted the reader to come up with is that it was Joff (however dissatisfying it may be). 

Indeed.  It's not really an open issue given all the main plot pionts of AGOT - who killed Jon Arryn and why, who set the Starks and Lannisters at each other's throats and why - are resolved in ASOS and the story then broadens and moves beyond the Stark-Lannister conflict / War of the five kings into the second dance of the dragons and the new war for the dawn.  Well it was meant to but we're slowly getting there.......

[ravenous reader]

43 minutes ago, the trees have eyes said:

Ned and Robert were fosterd together as brothers.  I don't see any reason to think that Ned loved Robert any more than, say Lyanna, or Catelyn and his children.  The difference in their personalities is striking and as adults they have grown into very different characters.  It's like the childhood best friend or university buddy who was ever present for a few years but then you grew up, moved on with your life and the friendship faded as you realised you don't have as much in common as it seemed.  I'm not buying the bromance as an enduring obsession.

He was unfailingly loyal to Robert on many occasions, preferentially taking his side and following him blindly, often to the detriment of his own family.  The only time he put someone else ahead of Robert, forcing him into a confrontation with Robert even if only tacit, was in the case of the promise he made to Lyanna (which I'm assuming was to take care of Jon son of Robert's nemesis Rhaegar).

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Cersei is not being dumb though as I've addressed before. She is making the calculation that 1) Bran will not wake and talk, 2) if he does wake he will not remember or understand what he saw, 3) that if he does remember and can talk he will be dismissed as unreliable, perahps even put up to it by the grasping Ned Stark, enemy of the Lannisters - this is how factions and politics works after all.4) that even if Ned believes Bran he has zero evidence and lacks the political position or allies to take on the Queen - who is on his side at KL after all?  There are good reasons to do nothing.  Though your personal reading of the situation is different it doesn't mean it isn't pragmatic and sensible.

Your point is taken.  I guess I might have been overestimating Cersei's irrationality.

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When does she request Jaime kill Bran and when does he refuse?  I don't recollect this happening.  And clearly she is not "accepting her fate", she is banking on the Starks not knowing what happened and if they do find out she is banking on being able to defeat Robert and them before they can defeat her.  And guess what?  This is exactly what happens........

 

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A Clash of Kings - Catelyn VII

"And when he did not, you knew your danger was worse than ever, so you gave your catspaw a bag of silver to make certain Bran would never wake."

"Did I now?" Jaime lifted his cup and took a long swallow. "I won't deny we talked of it, but you were with the boy day and night, your maester and Lord Eddard attended him frequently, and there were guards, even those damned direwolves . . . it would have required cutting my way through half of Winterfell. And why bother, when the boy seemed like to die of his own accord?"

"If you lie to me, this session is at an end." Catelyn held out her hands, to show him her fingers and palms. "The man who came to slit Bran's throat gave me these scars. You swear you had no part in sending him?"

The twins discussed a follow-up assassination of Bran at the time.  Additionally, I'm 'reading between the lines,' based on her pattern of enlisting catspaws and swords-for-hire to do her dirty work for her, particularly the scene where she attempts to seduce Jaime into killing Tyrion, that it was she not he who initiated the discussion while still at Winterfell. 

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No.  What's out of character is the idea she would involve her precious Joffrey in a harebrained plot to murder Bran, a boy in a coma, while surrounded by guards in Winterfell.  This is not remotely plausible.

I agree.  Plausibly is lacking for the most part.

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On the contrary.  We do not need to intuit "Aha Gotcha!" as we have both Tyrion and Jaime reach the conclusion separately. 

That's the strongest bit of evidence for it being Joffrey -- the fact that two reliable narrators with intimate knowledge of all the players implicated, being Lannisters, both independently reach that conclusion.

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You can try and bend over backwards and say Tyrion got it wrong and that Joffrey snitched a dagger and is worried that his now dead father or indulgent mother will reprimand him, the king, for this minor and insignificant act (everything in the royal armoury is now his after all) or we can accept that GRRM is leading us to the conclusion that Tyrion has rumbled Joffrey's act. 

Yes, he is leading us there; but I don't like being led! 

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And that he confirms that with Jaime and Cersei discussing how Joffrey, the callous boy who cut open a pregnant cat and showed his father the dead foetal kittens, heard his father talking about it being better that Bran was dead and putting down wounded animals and decided to do just that.  I get that you don't like this exaplantion and may never accept it but it's remarkably straightforward.

 @John Suburbs raised an interesting point upthread:

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Another question: if Joffrey is cruel and likes hurting people, then why is he doing a kindness by giving Bran the gift of mercy? Seems out of character, no?

This is my favorite question!  Especially when good kings are supposed to be bold, not merciful.  Had he been merciful, he would have allowed Ned to take the black instead of beheading him.  Much of this case perplexes me!

From most arguments brought on this thread, I've gleaned that Robert would have focused on doing a 'kindness' for Bran. In his shared grief with Ned over this time, the sincerity of which I'm convinced, Robert would have focused on the compassion, mercy and relief of suffering attending such an act, rather than their opposites, and would have expressed these in the manner of someone overcome with grief for someone they care about.  Since Joffrey is not concerned with these values -- choosing instead to espouse their opposites at every turn -- it doesn't make sense that he would then act out of mercy to impress his father.

It's just occurred to me, however, one way one might explain Joffrey's motivation is by jealousy.  Perhaps Joffrey was jealous at the direction of Robert's emotional attention away from him and onto Bran, whom he may have resented for monopolizing resources he considers are rightly his;  and therefore acted to eliminate his rival for Robert's attention if not affections.  

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Is the last an acceptance of Joffrey's guilt despite your general dissatisfaction with GRRM's explanations for his and Cersei's actions / non-actions or is this still a live one for you with LF ready to spill the beans as Lysa did about Jon Arryn in ASOS?

Yes, I accept Joffrey's guilt -- especially now that I've identified a more compelling motivation in the envy Joffrey likely harbors, as does Cersei.  It's also, as I indicated, difficult to base a scientific theory on the lack of evidence (basically the absence of measurable data) rather than its presence, so my focus on Cersei's 'non actions' as a basis for constructing a likely scenario was always flawed from the start!  At least exploring these avenues has provoked a lively debate

Thanks for contributing to the discussion!

[the trees have eyes]

12 minutes ago, ravenous reader said:

He was unfailingly loyal to Robert on many occasions, preferentially taking his side and following him blindly, often to the detriment of his own family.  The only time he put someone else ahead of Robert, forcing him into a confrontation with Robert even if only tacit, was in the case of the promise he made to Lyanna (which I'm assuming was to take care of Jon son of Robert's nemesis Rhaegar).

Your point is taken.  I guess I might have been overestimating Cersei's irrationality.

 

The twins discussed a follow-up assassination of Bran at the time.  Additionally, I'm 'reading between the lines,' based on her pattern of enlisting catspaws and swords-for-hire to do her dirty work for her, particularly the scene where she attempts to seduce Jaime into killing Tyrion, that it was she not he who initiated the discussion while still at Winterfell. 

I agree.  Plausibly is lacking for the most part.

That's the strongest bit of evidence for it being Joffrey -- the fact that two reliable narrators with intimate knowledge of all the players implicated, being Lannisters, both independently reach that conclusion.

Yes, he is leading us there; but I don't like being led! 

 @John Suburbs raised an interesting point upthread:

From most arguments brought on this thread, I've gleaned that Robert would have focused on doing a 'kindness' for Bran. In his shared grief with Ned over this time, the sincerity of which I'm convinced, Robert would have focused on the compassion, mercy and relief of suffering attending such an act, rather than their opposites, and would have expressed these in the manner of someone overcome with grief for someone they care about.  Since Joffrey is not concerned with these values -- choosing instead to espouse their opposites at every turn -- it doesn't make sense that he would then act out of mercy to impress his father.

It's just occurred to me, however, one way one might explain Joffrey's motivation is by jealousy.  Perhaps Joffrey was jealous at the direction of Robert's emotional attention away from him and onto Bran, whom he may have resented for monopolizing resources he considers are rightly his;  and therefore acted to eliminate his rival for Robert's attention if not affections.  

Yes, I accept Joffrey's guilt -- especially now that I've identified a more compelling motivation in the envy Joffrey likely harbors, as does Cersei.  It's also, as I indicated, difficult to base a scientific theory on the lack of evidence (basically the absence of measurable data) rather than its presence, so my focus on Cersei's 'non actions' as a basis for constructing a likely scenario was always flawed from the start!  At least exploring these avenues has provoked a lively debate

Thanks for contributing to the discussion!

Yes, he was loyal to Robert as you would be to an old friend.  I'm not attempting to say their friendship ended - and most friendships are tested at some point - just that he did not put Robert above the other people he cared about.  The friendship was tested by Robert's shocking indifference to the murder of Aegon and Rhaenys, and later by Robert's capitulation to Cersei over Lady after the Trident (as you illustrated so well) and by Ned resigning the Handship over Robert sending assassins after Dany.  This last is hugely important: Ned rejected Robert and refused to serve him.  Though they made up later Robert is not someone Ned follows blindly.  Ned planned to leave KL and get his daughters out of harm's way so he was not prepared to put loyalty to Robert over his own family that I can see.

She's not being irrational though.  The thought process is entirely rational and is what you would expect from a powerful figure used to getting their own way and being able to browbeat others.  Arya told the truth about he incident on the Trident but it didn't matter: Cersei won out there with Robert as "judge".  Ned would have to take an enormous risk to accuse Cersei of incest and attempting to murder his son with no evidence or witnesses to back up the accusation other than a crippled eight year old.

Ok.  Yes, they discussed it but decided agaisnt it.  Cersei is the thinker, Jaime the doer, the impulsive one who threw Bran out the window when Cersei wanted to threaten him into silence instead.  But why make this out to be a mystery at all if their discussion was intended to hint that they decided to kill him rather than deciding it was too risky?  The point seems that they didn't act.

I don't think Joffrey was remotely interested in doing Bran a kindness or in earning his father's approval.  Why did he cut open the pregnant cat?  Why did he fire a crossbow off the castle walls at starving smallfolk?  He's a nasty piece of work who seems to have acted on a whim when the idea was accidentally planted by his drunken father.  He seems indifferent to other people's suffering or hardships so it seems more he thought he was "doing what a bold king should" and making the decision that all the others were too weak to make.  I imagine he felt empowered by and quite proud of his actions.

Ok then   Personally I think GRRM wrongfoots us in AGOT but either reveals the truth later or in ASOS.  So we start off thinking Cersei murdered Jon Arryn, which seems confirmed when Ned discovers the twincest but it's misdirection we only truly understand when Lysa reveals the truth in ASOS.  Similarly we see Jaime push Bran out the window so are in no doubt that Jaime and Cersei have a reason to kill him and thus they are the natural suspects after the attempted assassination with the dagger but while they both admit the twincest and Bran's "fall" they both deny the dagger.  Why would they confess to two capital crimes and lie about a third?  Answer revealed in ASOS: they didn't do it, it was Joffrey whether that's a satisfying answer or whether the joints are left exposed.

[The Hammer of Justice]

2 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

IMO the reader is meant to deuce from the text that it was Joffrey as this is where the author and the text lead us

Except that the text don't lead us to conclude it was Joffrey, that's what I'm trying to say. The conclusion to this subject was given by GRRM, not the text.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

23 minutes ago, The Hammer of Justice said:

Except that the text don't lead us to conclude it was Joffrey, that's what I'm trying to say.

From a certain point of view, that's accurate. Instead of "leading", it serves the solution on a platter, in the dialogue between Jaime and Cersei.

23 minutes ago, The Hammer of Justice said:

The conclusion to this subject was given by GRRM, not the text.

Not true. It's given in the text. The SSM, in threads like this one, in invoked only to support claims that the conclusion is indeed the conclusion. What it is, we learned from the books.

On 6.12.2016 at 2:17 AM, The Hammer of Justice said:

Yes, but if he had not said the matter would be solved on book 3, nobody would have believed that Joffrey was the responsible,

Nobody?

So, you mean to say, if not for some interview most of the readers aren't even aware of, nobody would read the Jaime-Cersei exchange: "I got it! Joffrey hired the assassin" - "Funny story, I have additional information that gives Joffrey some motive for killing Bran", as a hint pointing somewhere at Joffrey's direction?

I believe that you're overrating us, and most of us are simpler creatures than you think. "They agree it was Joffrey, they say why it was Joffrey - oh, damn, now it seems Tyrion thought it was Joffrey, too, and they didn't even discuss it with Tyrion! - well, pshaw, so be it, it was Joffrey" - that, I think, is more realistic expected reaction of an average reader.

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

41 minutes ago, The Hammer of Justice said:

Except that the text don't lead us to conclude it was Joffrey, that's what I'm trying to say. The conclusion to this subject was given by GRRM, not the text.

Tyrion and Jaime independently figuring out it was Joff is in the text.

 

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

If Ned had evidence that the Lannisters killed his son sufficient to mobilize an army and march south, then Robert would imprison Cersei and Jaime and the Starks win, end of story.  Ned is only vulnerable in the south when he's not in the field.

Littlefinger never intended to side with Ned.  He was dangling a suggestion that Ned would never have taken, and regardless, that wouldn't have stopped him from betraying Ned even if he had.  It's a personal matter for him.

That's the thing, though, there is no evidence. Just a knife (if even that) and a suspicion, which is all LF needs at the moment. That way, it doesn't matter whether Ned stays or goes; a few more nudges either way and the armies take the field.

And again, you're claiming knowledge of LF's intentions that simply does not exist on the page. LF could very well have meant for Ned to support Joffrey, otherwise he never would have risked his own neck by suggesting they eventually depose the king. And, of course, eventually Ned would have been betrayed some other way.

[John Suburbs]

4 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

LF has Lysa in his pocket and Lysa has told Catelyn the Lannisters murdered Jon Arryn.  Ned's whole arc in AGOT is finding out who killed Jon Arryn and even though he never does he uncovers the explosive cause of conflict - the illegitimacy of Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella.  There simply is no reason or need to try and kill one of Ned's children to sow the seeds of chaos, they were sowed long ago and are ripening now.  LF exploits certain situations, Jon Arryn intends to foster Robet with Stannis so he has Lysa off him and blame the Lannisters to set things up, but he is not behind every event that happens.  Bran happened upon Jaime and Cersei and Jaime reacted.  There is zero reason for LF to have planned any hit on Bran before his fall and indeed, having Bran alive afterwards to blame Jaime is a more certain way of causing conflict than having Bran murdered and silenced.  LF is smart.  Having Lysa slip poison in Jon's wine is low risk - no one ever suspects either of them.  Having Joffrey or a some footpad try to murder Bran half a continent away in his father's stronghold is high risk and completely unnecessary for his plans.

The murder of JA might not bring Lannisters and Starks into open conflict. If not for the bore, then Ned would have made his accusations in court, Cersei and Jaime would deny them, and since the only evidence is a knife of unknown provenance, that would have been the end of it.

But the murder of a Stark child at the hands of a Lannister -- even if it can't be proven but Ned and Cat are convinced of it anyway -- is a much greater point of conflict between the houses and can be much more easily leveraged into open warfare.

So LF does not need to plan a hit on Bran; any of the Stark children would do. That would have been Joffrey's job: determine the target and the means to do it -- clumsily, of course.