US Elections - Could this be an American Brexit?

[Boris the Blade]

4 minutes ago, Castel said:

Are people hanging on to this dream? 

Time to wake up if you seriously believe that anything like the spirited opposition Obama faced will be in the same neighborhood as Trump. 

 

Yea, they are. They are really naive or hoping that is what happens because they are terrified. 

4 minutes ago, Ordos said:

I propose a toast to eight  beautiful Obama years! It's going to be the greatest Christmas ever! Because Obama is still President for just a little while longer.

Yay, then the new year starts off with a bag of shit.

 

1 minute ago, Triskan said:

How could the poll professionals who were very accurate in the past be so wrong?  

No clue. I really have no clue. 

[Horus Ex Machina]

7 minutes ago, Castel said:

That's not happening though.

And frankly, as I said two days ago: it's not just the electoral system. A much simpler issue is people to not vote in lockstep with their party no matter what asshole is nominated.

On the other hand though...it's going to work out for them so maybe it was rational. 

It isn't happening because people never make it an issue.  Several cities already have ranked voting and Maine voted on it in this election.  And several states have already passed the popular vote compact (which will definitely be challenged in court if it ever gets enough states on board to become law) without any type of popular push or media coverage.  Imagine if people begin to champion these things as the heart of a cause.   We've ceded movement politics to a dangerous element of the Conservative ideology, but this is a movement I think that we should all push for.  

The Democrats failed here for the same reason that the Republicans should have.  There is no need for solutions and ideas when you can simply just try to make the alternative seem worse.  Right now that's the only change that I believe in, bringing back issue-based politics and killing the two-party stranglehold on our country.

[Ordos]

3 minutes ago, Altherion said:

But it was, was it not? Obviously, we cannot tell exactly how Clinton would have done against a non-Trump Republican, but I don't think it would have been this close.

I did not vote for Trump (or at all for that matter) and I don't know who your friends are, but please, try for some empathy. Imagine that you are a white man living in some city which has lost its manufacturing jobs (in, say, Ohio or whatever). You can't find a decent job and while you have options (extra education, move away from your hometown, etc.), all of them have up-front costs and none of them are all that likely to pan out simply because everybody else (of every race and gender) is competing for the same few good jobs. Politicians don't even bother pandering to you anymore and practically all of the cultural issues have gone against you. You feel powerless and see no relief anytime soon. To add insult to injury, much of the left (whom one would expect would take your side) refers to you as a deplorable, privileged oppressor and does its best to tilt the field against you.

Now, along comes Trump and speaks to you in a familiar way. Most of what he's promising is nonsense and you don't particularly trust him on the rest, but oh, what a chance to say "Fuck you" to the Clintons, the Bushes, the Kennedy clan, Romney, etc.! You are very, very unlikely to ever get another chance to tell it to them in a way that they will be have no choice but to listen to. And, realistically, Trump is not going to win (all of the poll aggregators agree on that), so it's not like you are actually even gambling on him. Why not vote for him?

I have no time for empathy towards climate change skeptics and people who cannot see that Drumpf is a threat democracy.

[Horus Ex Machina]

1 minute ago, Durckad said:

I believe Republicans were asking themselves this very same question back in 2012.

The polls at least had Obama winning that election.

[all swedes are racist]

Motherfuck... if I lived in almost any other state, I'd be out setting fires right now

[Durckad]

Just now, Horus Ex Machina said:

The polls at least had Obama winning that election.

Not the Republican polls though, IIRC.

[Centrist Simon Steele]

2 minutes ago, Castel said:

We've reached the point where every section of the populace will hold up the election for their particular side. Is there solid demographic info behind this? 

 

 

 

 

Yeah...it's all over the electoral map. Independent voters are fleeing the party.

[drawkcabi]

I don't drink.

I don't smoke.

I don't do drugs.

I eat.

I'm going to have a Tupperware bowl full of cereal now. (Special K and Basic 4 mix)

[Castel]

7 minutes ago, Triskan said:

How could the poll professionals who were very accurate in the past be so wrong?  

Nate Silver pointed out near the end that Trump was clearly in the margin of error and has been pointing out forever that Hillary has a worse position than Obama. Just because of how the electoral map shook out Hillary would gain support in areas that just weren't as favorable to her and it was probably made worse by the support fading as people went back to Trump.

So, to the general public who is bombarded with polls, you see a lot of stunning headlines that just don't matter, telling you red states are in play. But that's a fundamentally weaker position than blue states or battleground states being out of play. Texas going purple is the one that comes to mind. Tactically you'd rather trade every vote there for a tenth as many in say...Florida.

 

People want to Brexit this but the polls were not that insane. The race tightened more than once and clearly tightened near the end, if you kept watch.

[Jaxom 1974]

I gotta work tomorrow...while I still can...I'm not waiting for the speeches...hopefully it isn't all burned down by tomorrow...so I'm going to try to sleep and not have nightmares...

[Eponine]

6 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

The arrogance of the democratic party has turned them away.

Every time I see people blaming this all on "stupid people", it's easy to understand why they wanted to burn the whole thing down.

[A True Kaniggit]

So for anyone that lives in California, unless the internet is lying to me you did legalize the recreational use of marahwana. Good for you.

[Castel]

4 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

Yeah...it's all over the electoral map. Independent voters are fleeing the party.

Were we talking about Bernie voters or independents? Cause 1)the actual amount of true independents is a question in the US and 2) Bernie voters being actual true independents is not at all something to be taken for granted. 

[JonSnow4President]

Well, according to google (tracker I'm watching), we're getting close to Penn being done with a current 45k lead to Trump (that was at 2k a short big ago).  Virtually guarantees it being over at that point. 

[Castel]

8 minutes ago, Eponine said:

Every time I see people blaming this all on "stupid people", it's easy to understand why they wanted to burn the whole thing down.

Then they are stupid.

But I don't even like to argue on those terms because I don't accept the framing,I think the entire  "people are voting cause coastal elites mock them" is far, far more elitist and arrogant. At least disdain is honest, this comes wrapped in the cloak of piety with some pretty bad presuppositions when you really look at it. Not to mention some of which are just dubious in general: we have this discussion once a week: the strongest Trump supporters in the primary were not the downtrodden, no matter how much people want it to be so. 

As I was saying yesterday, Democrats would rather frame these people that way, to infantilize them, cause it's an almost twisted form of power. 

[Altherion]

4 minutes ago, Castel said:

People want to Brexit this but the polls were not that insane. The race tightened more than once and clearly tightened near the end.

Brexit polls weren't really that insane either. The issue is that in both cases, practically everybody expected that if the polls were wrong, they'd be wrong in a way that causes the result to be better for the establishment (recall Clinton's overwhelming ground game advantage and the like).

[ljkeane]

3 minutes ago, Eponine said:

Every time I see people blaming this all on "stupid people", it's easy to understand why they wanted to burn the whole thing down.

I think there's a bit of a tendency for supporters of left leaning parties to do that whenever people for candidates to the right of centre, which is perhaps a bit over the top, but Trump is absolutely horrific, I really can't see how people can vote for him. Still, it's looking very misguided of the DNC to so heavily back a candidate in Clinton who was so unpopular with a significant number of voters.

[A True Kaniggit]

Not much of a Silver Lining for me, but at least Caddo seems to be 1 of the 10 out of 64 Louisiana Parishes that went blue.

Edit: But really, what could I actually expect from a state that when I was in high school used to separate teams during gym class by "salt vs pepper" ?

[TheKitttenGuard]

25 minutes ago, zelticgar said:

I was afraid this was going to happen. You people sit in here and talk to each other all day but this place has turned into an echo chamber with no diversity of thought. Hillary was such an awful candidate but everyone convinced themselves she was a lock to win. It's not over yet but it is not looking good. 

fivrthirtyeight was started to be hounded for being cautious when it there was a high undecided voter.  That was definitely some part of a hive mind.

People just want to show someone that they are not as smart as they think they are.  There is a wide swath of this country that belief they are left behind and people just want them to die off and quickly.  They are not polled much for they are not young and interesting.

Clinton lost states that truely believed they were left behind with NAFTA and other trade deals.  It is some payback for the shift of the Democratic Party from a Labor to a Corporate Party.  Donald Trump really knew what to exploit which the Democratic Party and the Media badly missed.

I underestimated this as well.  I knew there was this rage and disdain but did not think it was deep enough to give us this result.

[Altherion]

15 minutes ago, Ordos said:

I have no time for empathy towards climate change skeptics and people who cannot see that Drumpf is a threat democracy.

That is unfortunate, partly because this attitude is what caused the mess in the first place. It's easy to have empathy for starving orphaned toddlers and the like -- much harder for people who are not like you and whom you do not particularly care for.