Jump to content

US Elections: Day dawns on Trump.


DreamSongs

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, Red Tiger said:

Dont remind me. Both O'Malley and Sanders would have done better.

Just you wait until more knowledgeable people come along and calmly explain to you that your hypothetical assertion of a possible Sanders win is conjectural, factually suspect, and at odds with the accepted scientific methodology and the exact science that is reading the minds of US electorate all the while insinuating you are a raging bigot who doesn't even know it. Or at least a communist who would have invited Raul Castro in the White House.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Well that and massive systematic voter suppression allowed by the gutting of the Voting Rights act.

I see that this will be a tough pill to swallow for liberals.  

 

Thank you for Donald Trump, Mexal.

 

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

You and others thought his nomination by the Republicans was wonderful you went on and on about how he couldn't win and stratigicily supporting him in the primaries was smart by the Democrats.  

You laughed when I said the POS could win. You laughed.

 

I remember.

 

Thank you for Donald Trump, Shryke.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the french government is totally against Trump's victory :

Hollande calls for 'united Europe' to defend values after Trump win

http://usa.liveuamap.com/en/2016/9-november-hollande-calls-for-united-europe-to-defend-values

Trump win 'opens period of uncertainty': France's Hollande

http://usa.liveuamap.com/en/2016/9-november-trump-win-opens-period-of-uncertainty-frances

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"Just you wait until more knowledgeable people come along and calmly explain to you that your hypothetical assertion of a possible Sanders win is conjectural, factually suspect, and at odds with the accepted scientific methodology and the exact science that is reading the minds of US electorate all the while insinuating you are a raging bigot who doesn't even know it."

Too bad that's pure bs and Sanders would have crushed it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To answer the earlier question of how this relates to other polling and predictive screw-ups, you've got 1980, where Reagan's narrow lead turned into a landslide, and 1948, where Dewey lost to Truman. The point with the first is that the decisive debate happened so late that there was little time for polls to pick it up, and with the second, the polls stopped towards the end of the campaign, thereby ignoring Truman's momentum. 

I'd say this is unprecedented in a US Presidential election.

(Compared with Britain in 2015 and 1992, it's pretty tame though).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Bold Barry Whitebeard said:


He's getting rid of environmental regulations that are killing business and allowing foreign competitors to corner the markets on minerals.  Rather than giving NATO the finger, he's actually going to hold them accountable for their treaty obligations.  The accords he's going to tear up are ones that were never ratified by the Senate.  As for the people who were allegedly silenced or threatened, at least he didn't have them killed like the Clintons have done.  (That last bit is hyperbole, I don't actually believe the Clintons have ordered people killed.  But suggesting that the accusations against him fell apart because of supposed threats is as scurrilous as saying the Clintons murder anyone who tries to testify against them.)

Plus, the women who made accusations against Trump only at the most convenient period were overwhelmingly affiliated with the Dems via the Clinton Foundation, and broke their stories to Dem owned media. Plus, there are emails pretty much attesting to the fact Podesta and Co were planning something like this, if need be, as a slander strategy as far ago as March.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, The Killer Snark said:

Plus, the women who made accusations against Trump only at the most convenient period were overwhelmingly affiliated with the Dems via the Clinton Foundation, and broke their stories to Dem owned media. Plus, there are emails pretty much attesting to the fact Podesta and Co were planning something like this, if need be, as a slander strategy as far ago as March.

Trump provided corroborating evidence for these claims himself, though... both back in '05 and then, when the story broke, on the campaign trail.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, I was wrong. Almost completely and totally wrong. All I can say in my defense is that I was hardly the only one. This election has shown us that nearly everything we think about political campaigns is wrong; and either by luck or by insight Trump knew this. The question is, can Democrats learn this lesson too?

As for Trump, the only thing to do is hope that the awesome weight and responsibility of the office he now has fundamentally changes him. Its not a preposterous idea, but I have no idea what the odds of it happening are. His victory speech was surprisingly encouraging though; focusing on uniting the country again and naming infrastructure improvement as his number one priority. That doesn't mean much on its own of course, but it wasn't something he needed to do; he could've just gloated.

The questions going forward are:

What issues does Trump personally care about, where does he stand on them, and will he push back against Ryan and McConnell when they disagree? 

What issues does Trump not care about, and will he just sign whatever Ryan and McConnell send him?

Will the Republican foreign policy establishment, who were the primary #NeverTrumpers, and Trump reconcile and allow them to keep US foreign policy at least within the boundaries of what has been mainstream up until now?

I have no idea what the answers to those questions are, but they will decide what the next four years are like. And there's a pretty diverse set of possibilities here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Mr Fixit said:

Just you wait until more knowledgeable people come along and calmly explain to you that your hypothetical assertion of a possible Sanders win is conjectural, factually suspect, and at odds with the accepted scientific methodology and the exact science that is reading the minds of US electorate all the while insinuating you are a raging bigot who doesn't even know it. Or at least a communist who would have invited Raul Castro in the White House.

Eh, I have a thick skin, it's all good.

 

17 minutes ago, Bold Barry Whitebeard said:


He's getting rid of environmental regulations that are killing business and allowing foreign competitors to corner the markets on minerals.  Rather than giving NATO the finger, he's actually going to hold them accountable for their treaty obligations.  The accords he's going to tear up are ones that were never ratified by the Senate.  As for the people who were allegedly silenced or threatened, at least he didn't have them killed like the Clintons have done.  (That last bit is hyperbole, I don't actually believe the Clintons have ordered people killed.  But suggesting that the accusations against him fell apart because of supposed threats is as scurrilous as saying the Clintons murder anyone who tries to testify against them.)

Okay, i'll hold off on judgement for now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Future Null Infinity said:

Looks like the french government is totally against Trump's victory :

Hollande calls for 'united Europe' to defend values after Trump win

http://usa.liveuamap.com/en/2016/9-november-hollande-calls-for-united-europe-to-defend-values

Trump win 'opens period of uncertainty': France's Hollande

http://usa.liveuamap.com/en/2016/9-november-trump-win-opens-period-of-uncertainty-frances

 

But aren't the French people basically totally against the French government? What is Hollande's approval rating at? Like, 15% or something? Seems to me the Brexit, Trump, "look after your own first", movement is gaining steam, and more countries in Europe will be emboldened to follow the example. Isn't Merkel's position severely weakened now as it stands, thanks to the refugee issue? Trump is building a wall. Germany will probably at least build a nice fence soon. Efficiently, of course.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Fez said:

Well, I was wrong. Almost completely and totally wrong. All I can say in my defense is that I was hardly the only one.

Hey, I was even more wrong. I simply put too much faith in polling data and the importance of ground game.

There's a lot to digest from this election though - I'm really hesitant about throwing around snap-judgements.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Michael Seswatha Jordan said:

I guarantee 90% of the promises he made will not come to fruition and I don't see anything being done like building a wall or deporting 1000's of people. Presidential Nominees make a lot of promises, rarely follow through with them. I think when they become president and have all their meetings and realize what's REALLY going on and what's at stake, their attitudes tend to change.

Remember Obama's promise of bringing all the soldiers home? How's that one worked out?

That's the wrong direction, though; people are on their best behaviour during the campaign. We're now hoping that Trump will be the opposite of that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

Hey, I was even more wrong. I simply put too much faith in polling data and the importance of ground game.

There's a lot to digest from this election though - I'm really hesitant about throwing around snap-judgements.

What was the Clinton/Trump campaign spending ratio in the end? Like 3-1 or something when I last heard? More? Surely the crusaders for the downtrodden should be ecstatic that the small guy won here against the champion of the rich donors? After all, we don't want money buying electoral victory, do we...Or do we only want that when its the Democrats doing the buying?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Bold Barry Whitebeard said:

He's getting rid of environmental regulations that are killing business\

This is such utter horseshit. And doesn't have any basis in reality with respect to our economic problems over the last 8 years, which have been driven largely by lack of aggregate demand and the fact we've been at the zero lower bound for yeas.

This might be remotely plausible if we we're running a high amount of inflation over the last few years. But, that isn't what happened. 

The regulation killing business story pushed by Republicans is nonsense. Republican stupidity and ignorance and austerity has been the problem here.

There's reason why people lie Robert Lucas and Thomas Sargeant endorsed Hillary. That's because Trump was selling utter horseshit, a lot of which he got from the Republican Party.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...