What If: Renly backs Stannis

[DominusNovus]

When Robert was still alive and kicking, Renly clearly was content to try to play queenmaker, and oust Cersei in favor of Margaery.  What if he tried the same strategy with Stannis?  They make an agreement that Stannis will set aside Selyse in favor of Margaery, under the pretext of Selyse having given him no sons (they can wait on the divorce until they secure the capital, if they feel the need to secure their footing first).  If this is worked out while Ned is still alive, it presents the golden opportunity, presuming Renly can convince Ned.  Ned backs Renly's plan to seize the Lannisters (technically, Renly hadn't pitched himself as King to Ned yet, so this wouldn't be much of a stretch from canon), putting the North, the Riverlands, the Reach, and the Stormlands all in the Stannis camp.  If they want to shore up their support even more, they can promise some retribution against the Lannisters for Dorne.

Other than the Lannisters/Littlefinger outmanuevering them in the immediate aftermath, this seems to be a pretty solid plan of action.

[velo-knight]

Honestly, I always thought that it wasn't very smart of Renly to make his move at the time he did. By claiming the throne when he did, he laid his personal ambition - and lack of regard for the laws of succession - bare, in a way that I think many lords would find deeply unappealing. By supporting Stannis, he could have given the impression that it wasn't about him - and once Stannis sent his letter, it would clear any suspicion of a personal motive whatsoever from Renly. Openly supporting Stannis wouldn't have prevented him from making a similar pact with the Tyrells, as he and his children with Margaery were the likely heirs of Stannis - and he always could've betrayed Stannis once the Lannisters were defeated (or poisoned King Stannis some months or years later). For a character shown to have ruthlessness and political skill, you'd think Renly would have seen the opportunity to win the crown while remaining the golden boy of Westeros.

[Trigger Warning]

17 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

Honestly, I always thought that it wasn't very smart of Renly to make his move at the time he did. By claiming the throne when he did, he laid his personal ambition - and lack of regard for the laws of succession - bare, in a way that I think many lords would find deeply unappealing. By supporting Stannis, he could have given the impression that it wasn't about him - and once Stannis sent his letter, it would clear any suspicion of a personal motive whatsoever from Renly. Openly supporting Stannis wouldn't have prevented him from making a similar pact with the Tyrells, as he and his children with Margaery were the likely heirs of Stannis - and he always could've betrayed Stannis once the Lannisters were defeated (or poisoned King Stannis some months or years later). For a character shown to have ruthlessness and political skill, you'd think Renly would have seen the opportunity to win the crown while remaining the golden boy of Westeros.

How is he supposed to back Stannis before Stannis even declares? It's not even an option. 

He claimed the throne while the Lannisters and Starks were at each other's throats, what reason does he have to delay without the reader's hindsight that Stannis will make a claim based on the legitimacy of Robert's children. You're asking him to wait for something to happen that he has no inkling about. 

 

[velo-knight]

Just now, Trigger Warning said:

How is he supposed to back Stannis before Stannis even declares? It's not even an option. 

He claimed the throne while the Lannisters and Starks were at each other's throats, what reason does he have to delay without the reader's hindsight that Stannis will make a claim based on the legitimacy of Robert's children. You're asking him to wait for something to happen that he has no inkling about. 

 

People were talking all through AGoT about how noticeable it was that Stannis left the capital and was hiring sellswords. Robb and Catelyn might not have pieced together what that meant, but I'd hope someone as shrewd as Renly would expect such a bid. Plus, even if Stannis hadn't declared, Renly could still declare for him, and at the worst been seen to be publicly supporting his brother.

[Trigger Warning]

Without the legitimacy in question he's still usurping his nephews, Robert's rightful heirs. 

Renly obviously has a lot of the clout in the Reach beyond the Tyrells, Penrose lists several prominent reach lords and ladies as his greatest friends and is himself Lord of Storm's End, Stannis is married and married to a Florent at that. Renly can bring the entire Reach to bear to push his own claim, there's no guarantee he could do that to support Stannis. 

Now why, if he's already stealing the throne from Robert's children should he back his brother (whose declaration is only anticipated) when he can just declare himself and take the path of least resistance. If you're committing treason there's no point in holding to the succession beyond Robert's children, Stannis' and Renly's claims are basically as good as each other's in that regard. Renly is the greater lord, commanding greater power with alliances already in place, supporting a man that's not declared his intentions and risking those alliances when he can just claim the throne himself would be silly. 

 

[devilish]

If Renly backed Stannis then the Tyrells would have sealed an alliance with the Lannisters and the story would have ended up pretty much in the same way. On the other hand if Stannis backed Renly....

[Lord Vance II]

The brothers really should have communicated even a little bit on this...I think if Stannis had gone to Renly and said "back me, you'll be 2nd in the Kingdom," Renly would have at least mulled it over. If the Lannister-Tyrell alliance could be busted before it began, the Lannisters would be screwed. 

But to answer the question, the whole Margery thing kind of ruins it for me. I just don't see Stannis doing that, but then again if it meant 75,000 swords he might. 

[devilish]

34 minutes ago, Lord Vance II said:

The brothers really should have communicated even a little bit on this...I think if Stannis had gone to Renly and said "back me, you'll be 2nd in the Kingdom," Renly would have at least mulled it over. If the Lannister-Tyrell alliance could be busted before it began, the Lannisters would be screwed. 

But to answer the question, the whole Margery thing kind of ruins it for me. I just don't see Stannis doing that, but then again if it meant 75,000 swords he might. 

Mace wanted a Tyrell sitting on the iron throne. If Renly couldn't provide that then they would have directed their 70k army to someone who did. I am actually surprised that Mace opted for Renly instead of courting the much stronger ally (the Lannisters). Together they would had turned the rebellion in a non story. 

The only way a Baratheon could sit (and retain) the IT was if Stannis bent the knee to Renly. Sure, he could have asked him for concessions (the Stormlands for example + a good marriage for Shireen) but that is all.

 

 

 

 

[The hairy bear]

9 hours ago, DominusNovus said:

When Robert was still alive and kicking, Renly clearly was content to try to play queenmaker, and oust Cersei in favor of Margaery.  What if he tried the same strategy with Stannis?

Because Robert was a king who left the ruling to the small council, and thus allowed the likes of Renly a great deal of power and personal freedom. If Stannis was king, the best Renly could hope for was becoming a mere executor of Stannis' will, without any chance of getting rewards or personal gain in the process. At worst, he would be dismissed from his post and Stannis would name a new Small Council of stubborn old school advisors. I honestly believe that Renly could have obtained more benefits negotiating with Tywin than with Stannis.

It can't also be taken for granted that anyone who would have declared for Renly would do so for Stannis. Stannis is unpopular, uncharismatic, has a lot of old enemies, is not willing to play the political game of promises and favours, and it's a known supporter of controversial polices (such as banning whoring). Lords Tyrells and Redwynes would have reason to fear, after besieging Storm's End in the war and mocking Stannis by having feasts beneath his walls while he was being forced to eat rats.

And in any case, I very much doubt that Stannis would have accepted to set aside Selyse and marry Margaery. Even if his marriage is not a happy one, he's all about duty and tradition.

8 hours ago, velo-knight said:

Honestly, I always thought that it wasn't very smart of Renly to make his move at the time he did. By claiming the throne when he did, he laid his personal ambition - and lack of regard for the laws of succession - bare, in a way that I think many lords would find deeply unappealing. By supporting Stannis, he could have given the impression that it wasn't about him - and once Stannis sent his letter, it would clear any suspicion of a personal motive whatsoever from Renly. Openly supporting Stannis wouldn't have prevented him from making a similar pact with the Tyrells, as he and his children with Margaery were the likely heirs of Stannis - and he always could've betrayed Stannis once the Lannisters were defeated (or poisoned King Stannis some months or years later). For a character shown to have ruthlessness and political skill, you'd think Renly would have seen the opportunity to win the crown while remaining the golden boy of Westeros.

When Renly crowned himself he didn't know that Stannis had discovered that Cersei's sons were bastards, and thus he considered his duty to claim the throne. If it weren't for this, he would have probably remained out of the conflict.

He also didn't know that Stannis had a sorceress at his service that could send shadow assassins and cause de dead of rival claimants. If it weren't for this, Renly would have just taken Storm's End and continued to King's Landing

When he proclaimed himself king, he knew that the Lannisters were alone. King Joffrey could not count with the support of the North (he had killed Ned), the Riverlands (they had just been attacked by the Lannisters), Dorne (for the murder of Elia and sons), the Iron Islands (traditional enemies) and the Vale (connections with North/Riverlands). All those regions would either join him or remain neutral. Meanwhile, he had the backing of the Reach and the Stormlands. His path to the Iron Throne was a clear one.

This course of action would be preferable to crowning a brother you didn't get along with, with the dubious prospect of poisoning him in the future.

[Coolbeard the Exile]

9 hours ago, DominusNovus said:

When Robert was still alive and kicking, Renly clearly was content to try to play queenmaker, and oust Cersei in favor of Margaery.  What if he tried the same strategy with Stannis?  They make an agreement that Stannis will set aside Selyse in favor of Margaery, under the pretext of Selyse having given him no sons (they can wait on the divorce until they secure the capital, if they feel the need to secure their footing first).  If this is worked out while Ned is still alive, it presents the golden opportunity, presuming Renly can convince Ned.  Ned backs Renly's plan to seize the Lannisters (technically, Renly hadn't pitched himself as King to Ned yet, so this wouldn't be much of a stretch from canon), putting the North, the Riverlands, the Reach, and the Stormlands all in the Stannis camp.  If they want to shore up their support even more, they can promise some retribution against the Lannisters for Dorne.

Other than the Lannisters/Littlefinger outmanuevering them in the immediate aftermath, this seems to be a pretty solid plan of action.

First thing i dont think Stannis would ever set aside Selyse in favour of Margery but presuming he did and married Margery.

First thing is that Tywin would not mess around in the Riverlands. He would engage Robb's forces and destroy him. He would make House Frey Lords Paramount of the Trident and House Bolton Warden of the North and concolidate his Forces. He would send the Bolton's and the Northmen up to retake the North and White Harbour. He could possibly use the White Harbour navy to reinforce King's Landing. 

Tywin would now have around 30,000 Westermen aswell as around 10,000 Rivermen. 

With Stannis forces marching on King's Landing Tywin would send forces down to the Reach to pillage, burn and spread terror but the objective would be to sack as many castles as possible and to take HOSTAGES. The Reachmen in Stannis army would be demoralised and would want to march home to defend their families but Stannis would be Iron and continue with the attack on King's Landing.

By the time King's Landing would be attacked it would be heavily reinforced with veteran westermen and possibly the White Harbour fleet. The wildfire would devastate Stannis fleet and there would be no way for Stannis to take it with so many lannister swords defending it. Tywin would let know to the Reach lords that he has all their families and will kill them unless they kill Stannis and Renly and submit to the Iron Throne. 

I cant believe the Reachmen would stick with Stannis and they would attack him and Renly like Robb got attacked at the Red Wedding. They would all swear fealty to the Iron Throne and Tywin would release their families but he would keep a substantial amount of hostages to deter them from doing anything stupid. 

Tywin would now have a chat with Petyr Baelish and the Vale would be his. 

Tywin would now have Westeros reunited.

This is what i think would happen what do you guys think of this?

 

[the trees have eyes]

3 hours ago, devilish said:

If Renly backed Stannis then the Tyrells would have sealed an alliance with the Lannisters and the story would have ended up pretty much in the same way. On the other hand if Stannis backed Renly....

This.  Mace wants something and Renly can offer him a grandson on the throne.  If Renly backs Stannis that is not on the table and all Renly has is his personal connection with Loras which won't count for much in Mace's eyes*.

But we should not underestimate the fact that Stannis woud have the Stormlands on his side and the impact that would have.

Or the possibiity that Renly's decision-making would have been different from the start: would he have abandoned Ned in KL or helped? And would Ned have been able to secure Cersei and the children and effectively hand the throne to Stannis as he had planned?

*We can hypothesise that Stannis would put Selyse aside for Margaery but this does not seem in character for Stannis.  And if Renly helped Ned crown Stannis then the whole question of the Tyrell's ambition is moot anyway as they have no opportunity to play kingmaker.  Not to mention hat the whole Margaery scheme apparently rested on her resembling Lyanna and what might tempt Bob won't work on Stan.

[The hairy bear]

51 minutes ago, Lord Vance II said:

I think if Stannis had gone to Renly and said "back me, you'll be 2nd in the Kingdom," Renly would have at least mulled it over.

Stannis could never do that. In his mind, Renly should have helped him in the war because it was his duty. And therefore, he didn't deserve any reward. After all, Stannis wasn't rewarded for supporting Robert during the war.

[Ser Scott Malkinson]

3 hours ago, devilish said:

If Renly backed Stannis then the Tyrells would have sealed an alliance with the Lannisters and the story would have ended up pretty much in the same way. On the other hand if Stannis backed Renly....

I'm not so sure. It is mentioned in the books I believe that Loras is Mace's favourite, and Loras wouldn't abandon Renly, much less fight against him. Therefore, I don't think Mace would ally with the Lannisters. He'd rather sit it out like he did in RR.

[devilish]

7 minutes ago, the trees have eyes said:

This.  Mace wants something and Renly can offer him a grandson on the throne.  If Renly backs Stannis that is not on the table and all Renly has is his personal connection with Loras which won't count for much in Mace's eyes*.

But we should not underestimate the fact that Stannis woud have the Stormlands on his side and the impact that would have.

Or the possibiity that Renly's decision-making would have been different from the start: would he have abandoned Ned in KL or helped? And would Ned have been able to secure Cersei and the children and effectively hand the throne to Stannis as he had planned?

*We can hypothesise that Stannis would put Selyse aside for Margaery but this does not seem in character for Stannis.  And if Renly helped Ned crown Stannis then the whole question of the Tyrell's ambition is moot anyway as they have no opportunity to play kingmaker.  Not to mention hat the whole Margaery scheme apparently rested on her resembling Lyanna and what might tempt Bob won't work on Stan.

The Stormlands produces some of the finest warriors in Westeros (Robert, Selmy etc). However its also the smallest region in the kingdom. There's no chance in hell that the Stormlands or anybody could beat the Tyrell-Lannister combination even if the Baratheon brothers could convince Robb and Edmure to bend the knee.  

Ned's fate was sealed the day littlefinger made a deal with the crown. Renly's 100 swords + Eddard's depleted force were no match against thousands of gold cloaks + the KG + the Lannister force + the hound. Renly and Ned would have ended arrested and both would lose their heads. Mace would reluctantly marry off Margaery to Joffrey and we'll end back to square 1.

 

 

[devilish]

8 minutes ago, Ser Scott Malkinson said:

I'm not so sure. It is mentioned in the books I believe that Loras is Mace's favourite, and Loras wouldn't abandon Renly, much less fight against him. Therefore, I don't think Mace would ally with the Lannisters. He'd rather sit it out like he did in RR.

He has to. Stannis is married to a Florent whose got equal claim to the Reach to the Tyrells and who had always been fiercely loyal to Stannis. The Tyrells nearly starved the Baratheons to death. Loras might be Renly's favourite but he wouldn't risk losing his LP status for him

[Ser Scott Malkinson]

4 minutes ago, devilish said:

He has to. Stannis is married to a Florent whose got equal claim to the Reach to the Tyrells and who had always been fiercely loyal to Stannis. The Tyrells wouldn't risk losing their LP status because Loras like Renly very much. 

Why does he have to? I'm not saying Mace joins Stannis or the Lannisters, I'm saying he sits it out, like the Arryns and Martells are doing in our story. They didn't lose their LP-status because of this.

EDIT: The Tyrells are heavily intermarried with half the Reach. Stannis would be crazy if he'd make the Florents LP without good reason and risk a war with the might of the Reach.

[devilish]

11 minutes ago, Ser Scott Malkinson said:

Why does he have to? I'm not saying Mace joins Stannis or the Lannisters, I'm saying he sits it out, like the Arryns and Martells are doing in our story. They didn't lose their LP-status because of this.

EDIT: The Tyrells are heavily intermarried with half the Reach. Stannis would be crazy if he'd make the Florents LP without good reason and risk a war with the might of the Reach.

The Tyrells nearly starved the Baratheons to death + they would be sitting out of a war when their rightful king needed them the most. That's quite a good reason of stripping them off from their LP status

 

[Ser Scott Malkinson]

Just now, devilish said:

The Tyrells nearly starved the Baratheons to death + they would be sitting out of a war when their rightful king needed them the most. That's quite a good reason of stripping them off from their LP status

TBF, I could see Stannis doing it. When I originally posted my previous comment, I misunderstood your post (shoulda read it twice before commenting) and I tried to fix it with edits but that didn't fully work.

Still don't think it would be smart though. Stannis has also shown he's not beyond forgiving his enemies in our story (but he is beyond forgetting it), so I don't actually think he would do it, however much he'd want to.

[Coolbeard the Exile]

Guys respond to me

[Ser Scott Malkinson]

1 hour ago, BeastMaster64 said:

First thing i dont think Stannis would ever set aside Selyse in favour of Margery but presuming he did and married Margery.

First thing is that Tywin would not mess around in the Riverlands. He would engage Robb's forces and destroy him. He would make House Frey Lords Paramount of the Trident and House Bolton Warden of the North and concolidate his Forces. He would send the Bolton's and the Northmen up to retake the North and White Harbour. He could possibly use the White Harbour navy to reinforce King's Landing. 

Tywin would now have around 30,000 Westermen aswell as around 10,000 Rivermen. 

With Stannis forces marching on King's Landing Tywin would send forces down to the Reach to pillage, burn and spread terror but the objective would be to sack as many castles as possible and to take HOSTAGES. The Reachmen in Stannis army would be demoralised and would want to march home to defend their families but Stannis would be Iron and continue with the attack on King's Landing.

By the time King's Landing would be attacked it would be heavily reinforced with veteran westermen and possibly the White Harbour fleet. The wildfire would devastate Stannis fleet and there would be no way for Stannis to take it with so many lannister swords defending it. Tywin would let know to the Reach lords that he has all their families and will kill them unless they kill Stannis and Renly and submit to the Iron Throne. 

I cant believe the Reachmen would stick with Stannis and they would attack him and Renly like Robb got attacked at the Red Wedding. They would all swear fealty to the Iron Throne and Tywin would release their families but he would keep a substantial amount of hostages to deter them from doing anything stupid. 

Tywin would now have a chat with Petyr Baelish and the Vale would be his. 

Tywin would now have Westeros reunited.

This is what i think would happen what do you guys think of this?

 

I don't think this would happen.

2 minutes ago, BeastMaster64 said:

Guys respond to me

This ok?