Could the Vale really have tipped the scales of the wotfk?

[Coolbeard the Exile]

2 hours ago, devilish said:

Your numbers are a bit wrong. According to AWOIF, Robb had 20k which included the Freys. The Vale can raise 45k but their numbers will be closer to 20k considering that Lysa will want to have her sweet robin heavily defended + time is a bit of an essence here. The Lannisters have more then 35k (20k under Tywin’s command, 15k under Jamie and an unknown amount of soldiers lead by Steffon).

Also Stannis sacking KL would not be the end of the war. Tommen is at Rosby and will probably find his way back to CR.  Mycella is in Dorne. The Tyrells are frightened about Stannis and for good reason

a-    They nearly starved him to death and they refused to bend the knee despite being the rightful ruler
b-    He’s married to a Florent, who have got equal claim to the reach then they do and had fought at Stannis side.
c-    Stannis killed Mace’s son in law
Therefore Mace would probably side still side with Tywin unless he’s convinced by the Northern coalition to do something else. (It’s possible, Royce will have a big say in the Northern army and his son had declared with Renly)
In this timeline I can see
a-    The Vale will be the heroes that save the day. Unlike Robb, Royce/Brynden have no Walder keeping them away from saving Edmure and can therefore march in the Riverlands with little opposition
b-    Tywin will be more cautious. He’ll avoid going too deep into the Riverlands territory to avoid a confrontation with the Vale.Whent will not forfeit Harrenhal, the Riverlands will be able to raise more troops and the Vale army numbers will swell considerably.
c-    Once Robb marches South, Tywin will retreat his troops to the Westerlands taking Edmure with them. Brynden will be appointed Lord Protector of the Riverlands with both him and Royce becoming the main leaders of the campaign. (Robb will be seen as too young and green to lead the council let alone put a crown on his head)
d-    Royce who will be backed by grateful Riverland Lords will probably push the Northern coalition to declare to Renly. His boy is at Renly’s side. 
e-    Renly’s plan change. He won’t wait for the wolf and the lion to skin one another because the wolf had declared to him. Therefore he will march to KL while ordering the Northern coalition to engage to war with Tywin if he dares leaving the Westerlands.
f-    Renly sacks KL, capturing Cersei, Joffrey and the Imp. He’ll probably execute Joffrey on the spot and he’ll offer a pardon to anyone who brings the usurpers home. Rosby might or might not be swayed to accept Renly’s offer (he probably won’t, there’s must be a reason why both Cersei and the Imp trusted the city) Negotiations start with both Tywin and Stannis. Stannis will of course refuse. Tywin would probably accept a sort of parlay especially since Cersei and the imp are in danger. 
g-    Arya finds her way to a Riverland’s Lord house. He will bring her to Robb
h-    Stannis may use magic to get rid of his brother. The crown is in disarray and discussions are made with Brynden, Mace, Royce, Mace, Robb, the stormlands lords on who should sit on the IT. Robb and the Stormlanders would probably push for Stannis. Royce, Mace and probably Brynden (who want his nephew back and he knows that Stannis will have Cersei and Tyrion executed which would lead to Tywin executing Edmure) will probably push for someone else.  Mace might come with a solution with Willas being declared king and Arya marrying him.  A chunk of the Stormlanders will flee to join Stannis down south only to be crushed by superior numbers.  Tywin will eventually bend the knee to King Willas in exchange of a pardon and Cersei marrying either Loras or Edmure.

I didn't know the Freys counted on Robb's 20,000 strong army but that dosn't change the overall numbers and i am right on the numbers.

[Free Northman Reborn]

4 hours ago, devilish said:

Your numbers are a bit wrong. According to AWOIF, Robb had 20k which included the Freys. The Vale can raise 45k but their numbers will be closer to 20k considering that Lysa will want to have her sweet robin heavily defended + time is a bit of an essence here. The Lannisters have more then 35k (20k under Tywin’s command, 15k under Jamie and an unknown amount of soldiers lead by Steffon).

Also Stannis sacking KL would not be the end of the war. Tommen is at Rosby and will probably find his way back to CR.  Mycella is in Dorne. The Tyrells are frightened about Stannis and for good reason

a-    They nearly starved him to death and they refused to bend the knee despite being the rightful ruler
b-    He’s married to a Florent, who have got equal claim to the reach then they do and had fought at Stannis side.
c-    Stannis killed Mace’s son in law
Therefore Mace would probably side still side with Tywin unless he’s convinced by the Northern coalition to do something else. (It’s possible, Royce will have a big say in the Northern army and his son had declared with Renly)
In this timeline I can see
a-    The Vale will be the heroes that save the day. Unlike Robb, Royce/Brynden have no Walder keeping them away from saving Edmure and can therefore march in the Riverlands with little opposition
b-    Tywin will be more cautious. He’ll avoid going too deep into the Riverlands territory to avoid a confrontation with the Vale.Whent will not forfeit Harrenhal, the Riverlands will be able to raise more troops and the Vale army numbers will swell considerably.
c-    Once Robb marches South, Tywin will retreat his troops to the Westerlands taking Edmure with them. Brynden will be appointed Lord Protector of the Riverlands with both him and Royce becoming the main leaders of the campaign. (Robb will be seen as too young and green to lead the council let alone put a crown on his head)
d-    Royce who will be backed by grateful Riverland Lords will probably push the Northern coalition to declare to Renly. His boy is at Renly’s side. 
e-    Renly’s plan change. He won’t wait for the wolf and the lion to skin one another because the wolf had declared to him. Therefore he will march to KL while ordering the Northern coalition to engage to war with Tywin if he dares leaving the Westerlands.
f-    Renly sacks KL, capturing Cersei, Joffrey and the Imp. He’ll probably execute Joffrey on the spot and he’ll offer a pardon to anyone who brings the usurpers home. Rosby might or might not be swayed to accept Renly’s offer (he probably won’t, there’s must be a reason why both Cersei and the Imp trusted the city) Negotiations start with both Tywin and Stannis. Stannis will of course refuse. Tywin would probably accept a sort of parlay especially since Cersei and the imp are in danger. 
g-    Arya finds her way to a Riverland’s Lord house. He will bring her to Robb
h-    Stannis may use magic to get rid of his brother. The crown is in disarray and discussions are made with Brynden, Mace, Royce, Mace, Robb, the stormlands lords on who should sit on the IT. Robb and the Stormlanders would probably push for Stannis. Royce, Mace and probably Brynden (who want his nephew back and he knows that Stannis will have Cersei and Tyrion executed which would lead to Tywin executing Edmure) will probably push for someone else.  Mace might come with a solution with Willas being declared king and Arya marrying him.  A chunk of the Stormlanders will flee to join Stannis down south only to be crushed by superior numbers.  Tywin will eventually bend the knee to King Willas in exchange of a pardon and Cersei marrying either Loras or Edmure.

Robb had 19500 excluding the Freys. But as we all know, that is not the full power of the North. The full strength of the North is equal to that of the Vale.

And the Riverlands can raise a lot more than 15k men. If Tywin was soundly defeated and the Riverlands had time to consolidate their strength, they would raise similar numbers to the Vale and North. Essentially you are looking at a 120,000 men capability between these three kingdoms. Of that, maybe 60k is an offensive capability, with the rest their defensive strength.

 

[Coolbeard the Exile]

52 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Robb had 19500 excluding the Freys. But as we all know, that is not the full power of the North. The full strength of the North is equal to that of the Vale.

And the Riverlands can raise a lot more than 15k men. If Tywin was soundly defeated and the Riverlands had time to consolidate their strength, they would raise similar numbers to the Vale and North. Essentially you are looking at a 120,000 men capability between these three kingdoms. Of that, maybe 60k is an offensive capability, with the rest their defensive strength.

 

Yes i know Riverrlands have a lot more men but they were defeated twice by Jamie before they got reinforcements.

[devilish]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Robb had 19500 excluding the Freys. But as we all know, that is not the full power of the North. The full strength of the North is equal to that of the Vale.

And the Riverlands can raise a lot more than 15k men. If Tywin was soundly defeated and the Riverlands had time to consolidate their strength, they would raise similar numbers to the Vale and North. Essentially you are looking at a 120,000 men capability between these three kingdoms. Of that, maybe 60k is an offensive capability, with the rest their defensive strength.

 

I took both into account using a bit of common sense

a- Robb will never be able to use the full might of the North especially with the Greyjoys hitting him at the side
b- Lysa being the cowards she is will make sure to only dedicate around half the Vale army to the cause with the remaining half remaining at the Vale to protect Sweet Robin. That means that Royce-Brynden will probably lead a 20k army

Id say that in total there would be

20k - Robb
20k - Royce
15-20k - Riverland Lords under Brynden

 That means a 60-70k maximum army. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

16 hours ago, devilish said:

I took both into account using a bit of common sense

a- Robb will never be able to use the full might of the North especially with the Greyjoys hitting him at the side
b- Lysa being the cowards she is will make sure to only dedicate around half the Vale army to the cause with the remaining half remaining at the Vale to protect Sweet Robin. That means that Royce-Brynden will probably lead a 20k army

Id say that in total there would be

20k - Robb
20k - Royce
15-20k - Riverland Lords under Brynden

 That means a 60-70k maximum army. 

But at the same time, Renly was killed by Stannis, resulting in the split of the Reach forces. So just like Robb would not have the full strength of the Northern Kingdoms, similarly Stannis did not have the full strength of the Reach and Stormlands behind him either. If Robb crushed Tywin before he could head to King's Landing, then Stannis would have won King's Landing, with whatever the force was he had at the Blackwater. How big was that force exactly? 40k men or thereabouts, I can't quite recall.

But the point is we would then have the 60-70k offensive force you refer to above for Robb, and Stannis with arguably a smaller force in control of King's Landing, and then maybe half or more of the Reach as dissidents sitting in the South. And then Dorne as a wildcard.

A finely balanced situation with Robb arguably the strongest of the lot. Certainly not a situation where the Northern Alliance could be defeated in the foreseeable future, if ever.

 

[devilish]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

But at the same time, Renly was killed by Stannis, resulting in the split of the Reach forces. So just like Robb would not have the full strength of the Northern Kingdoms, similarly Stannis did not have the full strength of the Reach and Stormlands behind him either. If Robb crushed Tywin before he could head to King's Landing, then Stannis would have won King's Landing, with whatever the force was he had at the Blackwater. How big was that force exactly? 40k men or thereabouts, I can't quite recall.

But the point is we would then have the 60-70k offensive force you refer to above for Robb, and Stannis with arguably a smaller force in control of King's Landing, and then maybe half or more of the Reach as dissidents sitting in the South. And then Dorne as a wildcard.

A finely balanced situation with Robb arguably the strongest of the lot. Certainly not a situation where the Northern Alliance could be defeated in the foreseeable future, if ever.

 

That is why I say that Renly remains the most important player in the war of 5 kings. In the current timeline the Vale remains neutral, the Riverlands army are greatly weakened by the Lannisters and Robb saves the day and declare himself king. That pushes Renly into defensive mode and he overstays in the Stormlands to allow the lion and the wolf to skin one another and him to take the spoils. Renly meets Stannis, Stannis kills him, the Tyrells join the Lannisters and its game over. 

In the alternative timeline, the Vale saves the day because, unlike Robb, it can raise troops more quickly + its not stuck at the twins. Tywin doesn't go so deep in the Riverlands for fear of encountering the knights of the Vale in open combat. A big chunk of the Riverlands is spared including Harrenhal (its closer to the Vale then to the Westerlands) which gives Brynden a bigger say on the matter. Royce and Brynden saves the day, Robb doesn't put a crown in his head and the war council is lead by adults instead. 

Now considering that Royce is pro Renly (his son is part of Renly's rainbow guard), he's the general of the biggest army in the Northern coalition and Brynden owns him big time (he saved the Riverlands), then we can assume that he will sway the argument towards Renly's claim. The North coalition will declare to Renly, Renly will march the Stormlands-Reach horde to KL and Stannis will miss Renly at the Stormlands. 

If Stannis still nail Renly then the story will be different. With the Northern coalition being pro Renly + Robb hasn't declare himself king then we assume that the Tyrells won't blame the North for Renly's death and would therefore negotiate with them. The North is inflexible but they will have little say because negotiations will be mostly done by Brynden and Royce. Will they come to a conclusion for a new order of things with Willas becoming king possibly marrying Arya/Sansa in the process? Thats a far better deal than what Tywin can offer. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

51 minutes ago, devilish said:

That is why I say that Renly remains the most important player in the war of 5 kings. In the current timeline the Vale remains neutral, the Riverlands army are greatly weakened by the Lannisters and Robb saves the day and declare himself king. That pushes Renly into defensive mode and he overstays in the Stormlands to allow the lion and the wolf to skin one another and him to take the spoils. Renly meets Stannis, Stannis kills him, the Tyrells join the Lannisters and its game over. 

In the alternative timeline, the Vale saves the day because, unlike Robb, it can raise troops more quickly + its not stuck at the twins. Tywin doesn't go so deep in the Riverlands for fear of encountering the knights of the Vale in open combat. A big chunk of the Riverlands is spared including Harrenhal (its closer to the Vale then to the Westerlands) which gives Brynden a bigger say on the matter. Royce and Brynden saves the day, Robb doesn't put a crown in his head and the war council is lead by adults instead. 

Now considering that Royce is pro Renly (his son is part of Renly's rainbow guard), he's the general of the biggest army in the Northern coalition and Brynden owns him big time (he saved the Riverlands), then we can assume that he will sway the argument towards Renly's claim. The North coalition will declare to Renly, Renly will march the Stormlands-Reach horde to KL and Stannis will miss Renly at the Stormlands. 

If Stannis still nail Renly then the story will be different. With the Northern coalition being pro Renly + Robb hasn't declare himself king then we assume that the Tyrells won't blame the North for Renly's death and would therefore negotiate with them. The North is inflexible but they will have little say because negotiations will be mostly done by Brynden and Royce. Will they come to a conclusion for a new order of things with Willas becoming king possibly marrying Arya/Sansa in the process? Thats a far better deal than what Tywin can offer. 

Way too complicated.

Instead, just assume that the Vale joins Robb just in time to wipe Tywin out after Edmure stopped him from crossing back to the Westerlands. In other words, just before Tywin decides to head to King's Landing.

Then the Stannis and Renly storyline plays out exactly as it did in the books, except Tywin is not there to broker the deal with the Tyrells and  Stannis ends up winning the Battle of the Blackwater.

At that point, there is a stalemate, and the Robb-Riverlands-Vale alliance controls the Northern half of Westeros

[devilish]

20 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Way too complicated.

Instead, just assume that the Vale joins Robb just in time to wipe Tywin out after Edmure stopped him from crossing back to the Westerlands. In other words, just before Tywin decides to head to King's Landing.

Then the Stannis and Renly storyline plays out exactly as it did in the books, except Tywin is not there to broker the deal with the Tyrells and  Stannis ends up winning the Battle of the Blackwater.

At that point, there is a stalemate, and the Robb-Riverlands-Vale alliance controls the Northern half of Westeros

You can't wipe out a person's character and how he would react in different circumstances. Tywin is not Jamie. He's a cautious general which means he will never go too deep in the Riverlands knowing that the Vale are infront of him and Robb might soon be at his back. That means that he will be in an excellent position to retreat to the Westerlands once both armies cross into the Riverlands especially since the Lannisters had already captured Edmure. That means that Robb is not able to do any victories and he will enter in the war council as a milk sop who just lost daddy and will soon marry a Frey girl rather then as a conqueror.

Royce and Brynden will have a bigger say, especially the former whose armies saved the Riverlands from more misery. Royce whose son is part of Renly's KG will sway the argument to Renly's favour. That mean that the Northern co-alition will not pose any obstacle to Renly, which consequently will motivate him to raise his lazy arse from the Stormlands and march to KL. As a milksop himself, Renly would want to be seen as a conqueror as his brothers are/were and can't allow the Northern coalition to win the war on his behalf especially since he now has the numbers to crush the Lannisters. 

The argument is, will he avoid Stannis in the Stormlands? If yes, then Renly will march to KL, he will sack the city and he will become king. If not, then Renly dies, the Tyrells will join the Lannisters, a confident Stannis will still march to KL, Tywin will probably convince the furious Tyrells to defend the city, Stannis is defeated and then the Tyrells-Lannisters will fight the Northern co-alition with superior numbers. That, unless, the NC can give the Tyrells a deal which the Lannisters can never match. 

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

16 minutes ago, devilish said:

You can't wipe out a person's character and how he would react in different circumstances. Tywin is not Jamie. He's a cautious general which means he will never go too deep in the Riverlands knowing that the Vale are infront of him and Robb might soon be at his back. That means that he will be in an excellent position to retreat to the Westerlands once both armies cross into the Riverlands especially since the Lannisters had already captured Edmure. That means that Robb is not able to do any victories and he will enter in the war council as a milk sop who just lost daddy and will soon marry a Frey girl rather then as a conqueror.

Royce and Brynden will have a bigger say, especially the former whose armies saved the Riverlands from more misery. Royce whose son is part of Renly's KG will sway the argument to Renly's favour. That mean that the Northern co-alition will not pose any obstacle to Renly, which consequently will motivate him to raise his lazy arse from the Stormlands and march to KL. As a milksop himself, Renly would want to be seen as a conqueror as his brothers are/were and can't allow the Northern coalition to win the war on his behalf especially since he now has the numbers to crush the Lannisters. 

The argument is, will he avoid Stannis in the Stormlands? If yes, then Renly will march to KL, he will sack the city and he will become king. If not, then Renly dies, the Tyrells will join the Lannisters, a confident Stannis will still march to KL, Tywin will probably convince the furious Tyrells to defend the city, Stannis is defeated and then the Tyrells-Lannisters will fight the Northern co-alition with superior numbers. That, unless, the NC can give the Tyrells a deal which the Lannisters can never match. 

 

You seem to misinterpret my last post.

The scenario is that everything transpires exactly as it did up to midway through Clash of Kings. The Vale is initially hesitant in joining with Robb. Then, when Robb is in the West, Tywin tries to bulldoze his way through across the fords, exactly like he did in the books, and is repelled by Edmure with heavy losses to the Lannister forces - again, exactly like in the books.

At that point, the Vale joins the fight and hits Tywin's retreating forces (from the fords) from the East with a 25k army of fresh Vale troops. Tywin's army is already exhausted, and has already suffered heavy losses at Edmure's hands at the fords. The Vale knights are fresh and hits Tywin while on the move.

I expect a similar outcome to the Battle of the Green Fork, only with Tywin this time on the losing end, and what's more, unlike Roose at the Green Fork, Tywin has nowhere to retreat to. His 15k force is likely slaughtered, with say 5k losses to the Vale army.

That leaves Robb with Roose's 10k surviving force from the Green Fork, about 6k with Robb (mostly mounted) and another 10k or so with Edmure. That's a force of about 26k, plus about 20k Vale soldiers, for around 46k total, marshalled for battle in the Riverlands.

Robb can then leave the Riverlands and Vale forces in the South, and return North with his approximately 14k surviving Northmen to deal with the Ironborn.

Meanwhile, Stannis takes King's Landing, and half the Tyrell forces return to Highgarden, remaining enemies of Stannis. That leaves a situation where you have Stannis with about 40k men at King's Landing, and about 30k Vale/Riverland soldiers in the Riverlands. Meanwhile the Riverlands, now stabilized, can gather more soldiers, which they surely have but which they were unable to gather before due to division and lack of organization.

Once Robb has dealt with the Ironborn, he can return with about 10k Northern troops to the South, to bring the allied army in the Riverlands to around 50k.

The war is effectively stalemated at this point, with Stannis controlling the Crownlands and Stormlands, the Reach sitting to one side, and Dorne waiting to pounce in the distant South.

 

[devilish]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

You seem to misinterpret my last post.

The scenario is that everything transpires exactly as it did up to midway through Clash of Kings. The Vale is initially hesitant in joining with Robb. Then, when Robb is in the West, Tywin tries to bulldoze his way through across the fords, exactly like he did in the books, and is repelled by Edmure with heavy losses to the Lannister forces - again, exactly like in the books.

At that point, the Vale joins the fight and hits Tywin's retreating forces (from the fords) from the East with a 25k army of fresh Vale troops. Tywin's army is already exhausted, and has already suffered heavy losses at Edmure's hands at the fords. The Vale knights are fresh and hits Tywin while on the move.

I expect a similar outcome to the Battle of the Green Fork, only with Tywin this time on the losing end, and what's more, unlike Roose at the Green Fork, Tywin has nowhere to retreat to. His 15k force is likely slaughtered, with say 5k losses to the Vale army.

That leaves Robb with Roose's 10k surviving force from the Green Fork, about 6k with Robb (mostly mounted) and another 10k or so with Edmure. That's a force of about 26k, plus about 20k Vale soldiers, for around 46k total, marshalled for battle in the Riverlands.

Robb can then leave the Riverlands and Vale forces in the South, and return North with his approximately 14k surviving Northmen to deal with the Ironborn.

Meanwhile, Stannis takes King's Landing, and half the Tyrell forces return to Highgarden, remaining enemies of Stannis. That leaves a situation where you have Stannis with about 40k men at King's Landing, and about 30k Vale/Riverland soldiers in the Riverlands. Meanwhile the Riverlands, now stabilized, can gather more soldiers, which they surely have but which they were unable to gather before due to division and lack of organization.

Once Robb has dealt with the Ironborn, he can return with about 10k Northern troops to the South, to bring the allied army in the Riverlands to around 50k.

The war is effectively stalemated at this point, with Stannis controlling the Crownlands and Stormlands, the Reach sitting to one side, and Dorne waiting to pounce in the distant South.

 

 

If Lysa doesn't send troops despite her brother is captured  by the Lannisters, her father wis dying while Riverrun is besieged and her loyal uncle is harassing her to do something about it then I doubt she will do it once her uncle has fecked of the Riverlands, her father is dead, her brother is safe and her stupid nephew had declared himself king. She'll certainly won't bend the knee to Robb (why should she?) and since she certainly doesn't have the army to keep the future King of Westeros at bay then she'll probably stay neutral at that point.

The only way she may be swayed to do that is if her beloved Littlefinger convinces her to do it. That means that Robb must learn and acknowledge LF worth and find a way how to lure them to their side.  Strictly speaking they have the tools to do so. Robb can offer him a hush hush marriage with Cat as queen assuming LF can drag Sansa out of KL + he convinces Lysa to drag the armies of the Vale to the cause. Meanwhile Edmure can offer him the Lordship of Harrenhal. A top up (Warden of the Westerlands + CR?) can be offered to him if LF can also convince Mace to join the NC (Willas as the Southern King (Dorne, Reach, Westerlands, Iron islands and Vale) with Arya or Sansa as his queen + Robb King in the North and the Rivers with Margaery as his queen + Garlan LP of the Stormlands). The Northerners lack the IQ to come with such deal but LF will come with it quite easily. 

 

Lysa will be duped to join the fight she avoided for so long, thinking that she'll marry LF once the dust settles, only for LF to marry Sansa once the war is over, the Lannisters are crushed and LF is declared warden of the Westerlands and Lord of CR. She will be pissed off of course but by that time Robin would be an adult and she would have lost all power over the Vale. 

If that happens, LF would flee before KL is sacked by Stannis, taking Sansa with him. The NC and Mace will make sure that Tywin won’t arrive in time to save KL. Stannis sacks KL, he kills most of the Lannister offspring and declares himself king. Willas marries Sansa or Arya (depending if LF drives a hard bargain) and he declares himself king. He marches with the Tyrell 70k army to free KL with Tywin still stuck either in the Westerlands or at Harrenhal. KL is liberated and Tywin ends up executed. The Westerlands will probably resist the crown for a couple of years but soon enough they will surrender and LF can become LP of the Westerlands and get his little fingers on CR. 

The crux of the story would be if the North know how powerful LF is and how much they are willing to bend the rules to accommodate him.  LF will have to be offered quite a lot of perks to be swayed to the NC side which means a prestigious station (CR and warden of the westerlands), a controversial marriage with either Robb’s mum and his sister and the full knowledge that Lysa will be betrayed. Would the honourable North do that? I doubt it. 
 

[Free Northman Reborn]

28 minutes ago, devilish said:

 

If Lysa doesn't send troops despite her brother is captured  by the Lannisters, her father wis dying while Riverrun is besieged and her loyal uncle is harassing her to do something about it then I doubt she will do it once her uncle has fecked of the Riverlands, her father is dead, her brother is safe and her stupid nephew had declared himself king. She'll certainly won't bend the knee to Robb (why should she?) and since she certainly doesn't have the army to keep the future King of Westeros at bay then she'll probably stay neutral at that point.

The only way she may be swayed to do that is if her beloved Littlefinger convinces her to do it. That means that Robb must learn and acknowledge LF worth and find a way how to lure them to their side.  Strictly speaking they have the tools to do so. Robb can offer him a hush hush marriage with Cat as queen assuming LF can drag Sansa out of KL + he convinces Lysa to drag the armies of the Vale to the cause. Meanwhile Edmure can offer him the Lordship of Harrenhal. A top up (Warden of the Westerlands + CR?) can be offered to him if LF can also convince Mace to join the NC (Willas as the Southern King (Dorne, Reach, Westerlands, Iron islands and Vale) with Arya or Sansa as his queen + Robb King in the North and the Rivers with Margaery as his queen + Garlan LP of the Stormlands). The Northerners lack the IQ to come with such deal but LF will come with it quite easily. 

 

Lysa will be duped to join the fight she avoided for so long, thinking that she'll marry LF once the dust settles, only for LF to marry Sansa once the war is over, the Lannisters are crushed and LF is declared warden of the Westerlands and Lord of CR. She will be pissed off of course but by that time Robin would be an adult and she would have lost all power over the Vale. 

If that happens, LF would flee before KL is sacked by Stannis, taking Sansa with him. The NC and Mace will make sure that Tywin won’t arrive in time to save KL. Stannis sacks KL, he kills most of the Lannister offspring and declares himself king. Willas marries Sansa or Arya (depending if LF drives a hard bargain) and he declares himself king. He marches with the Tyrell 70k army to free KL with Tywin still stuck either in the Westerlands or at Harrenhal. KL is liberated and Tywin ends up executed. The Westerlands will probably resist the crown for a couple of years but soon enough they will surrender and LF can become LP of the Westerlands and get his little fingers on CR. 

The crux of the story would be if the North know how powerful LF is and how much they are willing to bend the rules to accommodate him.  LF will have to be offered quite a lot of perks to be swayed to the NC side which means a prestigious station (CR and warden of the westerlands), a controversial marriage with either Robb’s mum and his sister and the full knowledge that Lysa will be betrayed. Would the honourable North do that? I doubt it. 
 

I'm confused.

The premise of this thread is that the Vale joins forces with Robb at some point during the War. Assigning various pre-conditions to them joining is not part of the scenario building exercise. For purposes of my scenario, simply assume that Lysa is dead and that Yohn Royce has taken command of the Vale. Problem solved.

The point is, the Vale's forces are available to Robb. The questions of this thread is, what difference does this make to Robb's cause.

[devilish]

20 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I'm confused.

The premise of this thread is that the Vale joins forces with Robb at some point during the War. Assigning various pre-conditions to them joining is not part of the scenario building exercise. For purposes of my scenario, simply assume that Lysa is dead and that Yohn Royce has taken command of the Vale. Problem solved.

The point is, the Vale's forces are available to Robb. The questions of this thread is, what difference does this make to Robb's cause.

My point is that the Vale won't simply join the war out of magic. Something must happen for it to happen. We can't discuss armies without discussing their restrictions which include limitations because of their geographic location, their leaders etc. 

If Robb and Royce could teleport every single soldier they have in front of KL before Stannis, Tywin and Mace could act then they will win the war. There's no way KL could resist an attack from 100K+ army. We know its not possible.

[the trees have eyes]

40 minutes ago, devilish said:

My point is that the Vale won't simply join the war out of magic. Something must happen for it to happen. We can't discuss armies without discussing their restrictions which include limitations because of their geographic location, their leaders etc. 

If Robb and Royce could teleport every single soldier they have in front of KL before Stannis, Tywin and Mace could act then they will win the war. There's no way KL could resist an attack from 100K+ army. We know its not possible.

I know from a previous thread that you have a thing about the Tyrells being dominant in Westeros and don't consider the Stormlands or the Vale to matter but thread is specifically

"Could the Vale really have tipped the scales of the wotfk?"

Answer for military reasons (numerical, logistical, strategic and morale), political (projection of strength, alliance building, diplomacy and negotiation both in Westeros and Essos) as well as resources - food in great part with the Riverlands and KL starving - is yes.

You can argue that they would decide not to but we know that from the books so it's not a question at all.  We also know that Lysa's bannermen were growing restless at her refusal to join in so it's not a question of magic either, it's what their loyalties lead them to wish to do.

[Wrl6199]

3 minutes ago, the trees have eyes said:

I know from a previous thread that you have a thing about the Tyrells being dominant in Westeros and don't consider the Stormlands or the Vale to matter but thread is specifically

"Could the Vale really have tipped the scales of the wotfk?"

Answer for military reasons (numerical, logistical, strategic and morale), political (projection of strength, alliance building, diplomacy and negotiation both in Westeros and Essos) as well as resources - food in great part with the Riverlands and KL starving - is yes.

You can argue that they would decide not to but we know that from the books so it's not a question at all.  We also know that Lysa's bannermen were growing restless at her refusal to join in so it's not a question of magic either, it's what their loyalties lead them to wish to do.

Yeah i agree with that. I mean the tyrells are still pretty dominant but as you said the storm lands and the vale still matter obvious. I was surprised though that nobody rebelled against lysa before the war. I mean i know they were loyal and all but i figured someone would see that she was cray..

[The hairy bear]

15 minutes ago, Wrl6199 said:

I was surprised though that nobody rebelled against lysa before the war. I mean i know they were loyal and all but i figured someone would see that she was cray..

Jon Arryn dies at the begining of the books, so Lysa had only been ruling for some months. There was no time.

 

[the trees have eyes]

26 minutes ago, Wrl6199 said:

Yeah i agree with that. I mean the tyrells are still pretty dominant but as you said the storm lands and the vale still matter obvious. I was surprised though that nobody rebelled against lysa before the war. I mean i know they were loyal and all but i figured someone would see that she was cray..

The eligible Vale Lords are all falling over themselves to marry Lysa and rule in her place in little Lord Robert's name.  It's a much easier way to push her aside - provided they can woo her successfully of course.

The likes of Yohn Royce are getting very restless but sparking a civil war by trying to topple her while her suitors rallied around her to prove their loyalty and press their suit for her hand doesn't look a good move.

It's only when Baelish marries her and they realise their prize is lost that they finally unite as the Lords Declarant to push her aside but with LF in power they missed their chance due to selfish / dynastic considerations.

[devilish]

54 minutes ago, the trees have eyes said:

I know from a previous thread that you have a thing about the Tyrells being dominant in Westeros and don't consider the Stormlands or the Vale to matter but thread is specifically

"Could the Vale really have tipped the scales of the wotfk?"

Answer for military reasons (numerical, logistical, strategic and morale), political (projection of strength, alliance building, diplomacy and negotiation both in Westeros and Essos) as well as resources - food in great part with the Riverlands and KL starving - is yes.

You can argue that they would decide not to but we know that from the books so it's not a question at all.  We also know that Lysa's bannermen were growing restless at her refusal to join in so it's not a question of magic either, it's what their loyalties lead them to wish to do.

I do not have a thing about the Tyrells. The Reach has multiple weaknesses including

a-    It shares too many borders
b-    It has too many people who has a claim to the LP
c-    Not enough choke points. There’s no deserts, CR or Storm’s end like fortress or Moat Cailins to keep it safe
d-    Unlike the Lannisters whose wealth can’t be taken away (ie its dug underground) the Tyrells wealth can be easily stripped away from them. Crops and war do not mix together.
Basically the Reach is the Riverlands on steroids. 

However how the war shaped up, at least at the beginning, it gives the Tyrells clear advantages over others
A-    They haven’t burnt bridges with anybody.  The Reach itself have been the Lannisters historical allies against the Targs, they have no grievances with the Starks, the Arryns or the Tullys (Sansa wets herself whenever she sees Sir Loras), they were loyal to the Targs and even Oberyn Martell likes them. Regarding the Baratheons, well, Stannis doesn’t like them very much but his brother loves them to bits and he’s got too many enemies to take care off.
B-    The Tyrells are the second richest family in the kingdom. They seem to be the Kingdom’s food basket which is handy to have in times of war. Just ask KL
C-    Their army is huge. 70k is a big army considering that the Lannisters can raise around 50k and Robb is leading 20k.
D-    None of the contenders can raise an army that will guarantee him full success on the other. Robb+Edmure raised around 20-30k, The Baratheons can raise 20k, Tywin can raise 35-40k. That means that Mace’s 70k is the determining factor
E- Most of the Tyrells are unmarried. 

Things would have been different if everything went according to plan. Stannis would declare himself king (4k), Renly would bend the knee to his brother as he should have done as a younger brother (20k), meanwhile Lysa and Robb march to save their relatives in Riverrun (40k-60k) only to bend the knee to his rightful king once he rescues Edmure (100k army in total). Balon is reminded that Theon is a Stark ward and will lose if head if the Greyjoys do not participate in war (another 20k). Under such circumstances Mace’s intervention would be unimportant either way and he would be crazy to join the Lannister side as war would come to his home, destroying his wealth.

It didn’t turned out that way. The Baratheons brothers and Robb put a crown on their head + Dorne, Vale and the Greyjoys decided to stay out of the way (actually the latter foolishly attacked the North when they were richer lands down South). Hence it created a situation where the Tyrells became the catalyst of the war.

[devilish]

18 minutes ago, the trees have eyes said:

The eligible Vale Lords are all falling over themselves to marry Lysa and rule in her place in little Lord Robert's name.  It's a much easier way to push her aside - provided they can woo her successfully of course.

The likes of Yohn Royce are getting very restless but sparking a civil war by trying to topple her while her suitors rallied around her to prove their loyalty and press their suit for her hand doesn't look a good move.

It's only when Baelish marries her and they realise their prize is lost that they finally unite as the Lords Declarant to push her aside but with LF in power they missed their chance due to selfish / dynastic considerations.

exactly

Also, if Lysa was weak then Royce would probably took over which means that the Vale would  use its might to first smash the Lannisters in the Riverlands and then use their influence for being the saviors of the Riverlands to sway the NC to declare for Renly. There's no way the Vale lords would bend the knee to Robb. Royce son is fighting at Renly's side + Lysa will refuse being second best to Cat once again.

[the trees have eyes]

1 hour ago, devilish said:

exactly

Also, if Lysa was weak then Royce would probably took over which means that the Vale would  use its might to first smash the Lannisters in the Riverlands and then use their influence for being the saviors of the Riverlands to sway the NC to declare for Renly. There's no way the Vale lords would bend the knee to Robb. Royce son is fighting at Renly's side + Lysa will refuse being second best to Cat once again.

Why would Robb want the Vale need to bend the knee to him?  He wants their support not their allegiance and the obvious family bonds between Cat and Lysa, the more distant connection between the Royces and the Starks and the recent history of the Stark-Tully-Arryn-Barratheon alliance all lean this way.  Lysa torpedoes this for reasons we learn in ASOS.

There is no particular reason for the Vale to declare for Renly (or the NC?) or any hints of connections in story but there is a strong connection to the Starks.  In the event it would be pretty irrelevant any way as there is also no reason for Robb and Renly to fight: Ned bent the knee to one Barratheon, Robb could easily do so once the Lannisters are defeated and Ned avenged as those are his aims not independence which was more a rejection of the Lannisters than anything else.

[devilish]

On 23/11/2016 at 5:15 PM, the trees have eyes said:

Why would Robb want the Vale need to bend the knee to him?  He wants their support not their allegiance and the obvious family bonds between Cat and Lysa, the more distant connection between the Royces and the Starks and the recent history of the Stark-Tully-Arryn-Barratheon alliance all lean this way.  Lysa torpedoes this for reasons we learn in ASOS.

There is no particular reason for the Vale to declare for Renly (or the NC?) or any hints of connections in story but there is a strong connection to the Starks.  In the event it would be pretty irrelevant any way as there is also no reason for Robb and Renly to fight: Ned bent the knee to one Barratheon, Robb could easily do so once the Lannisters are defeated and Ned avenged as those are his aims not independence which was more a rejection of the Lannisters than anything else.

If the Vale gives their support to Robb, then they are supporting his claim to his crown which goes against the will of any Westerosi king (Joffrey, Stannis or Renly) who condemn Robb’s decision of crowning himself as king. That would be treason. Sure the Vale can declare itself independent, something Robb would probably support. There again, once the dust settles and theking/queen sitting on the iron throne had consolidated power, then rest assured that he will send armies to reconquer the lands lost. Given the choice, Robb would rather defend his own territory then defend an independent Vale. Irrespective of Robb’s decision at the time, the North coalition (NC) could never beat the Southern Kingdom in battle (Reach, Dorne, the Westerlands and the Stormlands) in an open battlefield. They simply lack the numbers to do so.
It would have made sense for the Vale to join the war if

a-    Robb had never declared himself King in the North. That would have given the North Coalition the flexibility to negotiate with the king of their own choosing (Renly or Stannis) better terms in exchange of their support
b-    Other regions would have declared themselves independent and pro Robb (Dorne and the Iron islands). Under such circumstances a set of bilateral treaties could be sealed with the independent regions going into war against anyone trying to breach a region’s independence. If lets say the Iron islands are invaded by King Stannis’s troops then Arryn, Martells, Starks and Tullys will raise their banners to put the IK in place

It makes so much sense for the NC to declare to Renly.  See it from a noblemen’s prospective. War is bad for business and the quicker it ends the better. A change in power is risky as noblemen on the losing side might easily lose their lands.Also they wouldn’t want someone whose incompetent (ie Joffrey) or a zealot who micromanage them (Stannis) because these people would probably drag the land into another war

Renly is young, he’s all in favour of the status quo and he’s got the biggest army in Westeros. Robar Royce is part of his king’s guard which gives the Vale an edge.  If the Vale declared to Renly the tide of war will be heavily stacked into his favour. Renly would crush Stannis easily (ok he died with magic, but that’s something no one can see it coming) while the war between the wolf and the lion will weaken them both enough for him to get rid of the victor quite easily. Lysa might retire from regency knowing her boy will live the rest of her days safe in a world without war.