Could the Vale really have tipped the scales of the wotfk?

[John Doe]

Robb said the Vale could have made "all the difference" and many readers (partially) blame Lysa for the downfall in the Starks. But would the Vale really have made a difference? It doesn't have larger forces than the North and the Riverlands, and they had 20k each, which may be a logistical limit, but more than 30-40k should definitely be impossible. Meanwhile, the Tyrells alone are said to have 100k troops, and even if that figure is (as I suspect) incorrect, they would vastly outnumber any force the Vale could muster, and for all we know they have less money and no Randyll Tarly to balance their weak leadership (even though Royce may do that, at least politically, he is nowhere near as skilled a general for all we know). This means Robb would still be on the loosing side, since the Ironborn ravaged the North and his relationship with his bannerman was very fragile. Maybe the Red Wedding would have happened here too.

On the other hand it could be argued that, had the Vale joined him soon, the Tyrells wouldn't even have started to support Joffrey, and Robb may have even been able to use his numerical superiority for a direct attack on Tywin's forces, defeating the Westerlands in the process. This might have ended the war in one swift stroke. 

What do you think?

[Trigger Warning]

It would be much easier to fight to terms with 20,000 more men. Wars often weren't about fighting an enemy to unconditional surrender especially with castle warfare, the addition of the strength of the vale may simply make campaigning against Robb too difficult if they cannot force a decisive battle. The Castles of the Riverlands receiving fresh men and supplies from yet another Kingdom sat behind impenetrable natural defences could make all the difference in a drawn out campaign. Furthermore, the Reach wouldn't be able to maintain an army that size in a protracted campaign of siege warfare, they'd have to split up and a decisive defeat against even one army could instantly force the Iron Throne to make terms. The Riverlands, North and Vale all fighting on the defensive in unison may simply make the conquest too bloody and expensive and cause too much unrest amongst the Tyrell forces, that have little loyalty to House Lannister. 

I don't think Mace can raise that many men anyway, I suspect it had a lot more to do with Renly. Renly had a lot of influence in the Reach in general, not just at Highgarden. Penrose lists Tarly, Lady Oakheart and Mathis Rowan as "They that loved Renly best", the extent that Mace can hold together such a mighty army on an actual campaign has yet to be shown, I think that huge host was lightning in  abottle that had everything to do with Renly being the one gathering it. 

Basically adding the Vale to the mix may bring about a stalemate or simply make it too difficult for either side to prevail outright without decisive battles or long drawn out campaigns that cost men, food and coin and stir up unrest at home. Add the campaigning season coming to an end and that prospect gets even more dire. 
 

[JLE]

With the Vale forces, Robb might have had enough men to besiege Tywin in Harrenhall and prevent him ever leaving, while making his punitive raid on the Westerlands.

Without them, Robb still had to take his own army to the Westerlands - partly in search of revenge, partly in search of plunder, and partly in search of *food* because the ravaged countryside could not feed his army - and that did not leave Edmure Tully and Roose Bolton, between them, with enough men to keep Tywin besieged in Harrenhall (at first), or even wherever else he found quarter once Harrenhall was taken by treachery. (Rather importantly: Even when Harrenhall was taken by Roose Bolton, Tywin and his occupying forces were mostly away from the place, rather than shut up in it - they had freedom of movement, which the addition of the Vale armies would have denied them.)

If Robb had remained behind trying to besiege Tywin with his smaller numbers, Tywin had ravaged the countryside so his supplies inside Harrenhall would outlast Robb's - this is why Robb needed to make his strike west on the Westerlands, to feed his army.

Hence, instead, hoping that Tywin would pursue him to the Westerlands and that Robb would lead him a merry dance and avoid him until he could fight on a battlefield of his own choosing - a strategy which *so nearly* worked, and would have done if Tywin had manage to pass Edmure's blockade of the Trident, or if Edmure had made no attempt to prevent Tywin moving west.

With the Vale armies, Tywin would have much less freedom of movement, and could be properly besieged somewhere: Robb's raiders can strike west, while the remaining Vale / North / Riverlands forces can import food through the Vale via Gulltown and the High Road (an option clearly not available if the Vale remains neutral) or even make a strike for Maidenpool or Saltpans to ensure the ability to import food by sea - and Tywin never manages to break his siege to come to the assistance of King's Landing, which then falls to Stannis (the Tyrells, although they had a large army, would never have moved without assurances from Tywin, who would have been cut off from communication with them if he could be properly prevented from moving.)

[Greywater-Watch]

I think the forces of The Vale would have made the difference. Tywin Lannisters military weakness, as well analysed by Robb Stark, was that he had a lot of infantry on foot and thus was less mobile than horsed armies. The Vale could surely have risen some thousand horsed fighters. These could have circled Harrenhal to the east, cutting Tywin Lannister off from a retreat to the south, and would have been able to rejoin Robbs army in short time by evading an attack by heading north-west direction Riverrun. Tywin Lannister's army was most fragile when shipping for Kings Landing at the head of Blackwater Rush. That would have been noted in time by any army occupying that area.

[Adam Yozza]

After the Tyrell's joined the Lannister's then the Vale being on side with the Stark's may not have made all that much difference. Although, as Trigger Warning said, the Reach would have had to divide it's forces into several smaller forces in order to fight effectively. That added to the fact that the Reach actually only had about 70,000 men at the Blackwater, and the odds of Mace holding such an army together is extremely thin, so the Reach would probably only field about 40,000 men. If that got split into two armies, then Robb's cavalry would likely be able to pull a Whispering Wood on one army (whichever is not lead by Tarly), while his infantry would, collectively, outnumber the other army. It's possible, therefore, that having the Vale join them after the Blackwater could tip the scales, but it could go either way at that point.

Prior to the Blackwater, though, the Vale could have made all the difference. While Robb's cavalry force raids the West for food and to take out Stafford Lannister's army, the Riverlords, Bolton's infantry and the Vale forces would together have the strength to force a direct confrontation with Tywin/keep him besieged in Harrenhal. If Tywin is stuck in the Riverlands and Robb battering the Westerlands I doubt the Tyrell's would march against Stannis if they didn't have the assurance of Tywin being able to back them up. So Stannis takes KL. After that it would be the simple matter of defeating Stannis' depleted army and forcing him to allow the secession of the North, Riverlands and Vale.

[Yukle]

Agreed with the other arguments.

Robb defeated all of the forces he led due to his superior strategies despite being outnumbered. However, he also faced defeat of his banner men left under Roose Bolton's command. In that instance, it seemed Roose wasn't as creative a leader (even before he changed sides).

On the other hand, had the Vale risen to the Riverlands' aid, that would have left the North in a very stable position to sue for peace. Similarly, it may have discouraged the Iron Islands from raiding the North. If Balon Greyly knew that the North had two great regions supporting its claim, it would have been much more likely he'd have let them be - especially because the Vale's ports and fleets would've meant capturing Moat Cailin wasn't as strategically significant.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

It depends . At the start of hostilities . The Westerlands vs the North ,Riverlands  , the Vale , Dragonstone , Stormlands and the Reach and eventually The Iron Islands  . Advantage Robb.

Post Renly . Stormlands , the North ,The Vale and the Riverlands  vs Westerlands and the Reach .Slight Advantage Robb .

Post Jeyne Westerling .  The North , Vale ,Riverlands  vs Westerlands and Reach . Slight Advantage Robb .

Here are my reasons ; The Vale would give them access to more troops , Foodstuff , and  battle lords who fought in Robert's Rebellion .

[Bretwalda]

Important to the question is not only IF the Vale joined the Robb's Alliance but WHEN.

If the Vale joined very early on in the WOTFK, then certain political decisions might have been made differently, due to Robb Stark having a larger military force at his command.

Would Balon Greyjoy have attacked the North as Yukle just posted and instead maybe seen Lannisport as more attractive "easy" target ?

Would Robb Stark felt the need to pacify Walder Frey and arm twist Edmure to marry one of his daughters (no Red Wedding !) ?

Would Roose Bolton think that Robb would be on the losing side and make his opportunistic alliance with Tywin and Walder Frey?

Would Mace Tyrell want to join the Lannisters if they are seen to be in a quagmire in the Riverlands and decide to adopt a more "neutralist" position and wait and see ?

A stronger Northern-based alliance would have made some of the more opportunistic lords (esp. Mace Tyrell and Roose Bolton) decide to make different decisions than what they did.

[Free Northman Reborn]

These wars aren't a case of adding all the men on each side together and then lining them up against the enemy in a battle of attrition.

The Tyrells don't have an offensive force of 100k men. At least, not for anything more than a leisurely march up the Kingsroad, and then only in very unwieldy formation.

With the Vale participating from the start, Robb would have won the war against the Lannisters and Balon would have seriously reconsidered his invasion of the North. If Balon had not invaded, Roose would not have betrayed Robb, and the Red Wedding would not have happened.

In that case, the Tyrells would have captured King's Landing and the North-Vale-Riverlands alliance would have ruled everything North of that.

What transpired after that would be a drawn out stalemate, and likely to a large degree dependent on which side Dorne decided to join. Given their history, they would almost certainly have joined the side opposing the Reach.

 

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

The army-fielding-potential figures are somewhat imprecise and inconsistent (as in real life, I imagine), but Renly's huge host consisted of people from the Reach, from the Stormlands and some glory-seeking extras like Robar Royce. There's this SSM, where the Reach is stated to have similar manpower as Tywin Lannister's domain, and the Vale is on par with the North and the Riverlands; and there's that Small Council meeting, where Littlefinger submits, uncontested, that with marrying Margaery Tyrell comes fifty thousand swords.

[The Sleeper]

Would an extra army with experienced fighters make a difference? Of course. How much so would depend on when they joined the fight.

For instance, if after the battle of the Green Fork the Vale army had closed the Ruby Ford behind Tywin, he would have been trapped and it would have been almost game over. He would have no good options.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

Let's not forget that the value of the Vale isn't only in the swords, it's also political. With the Vale firmly in Robb's corner, instead of its actual "Please leave a raven after the signal and we'll get back to you" position, Tywin's hold of the Seven Kingdoms would look weak as shit, which in turn could start a domino effect. Sunspear could renounce House Lannister. Tywin's own lords banneremen could individually think of abandoning him (basically what Bolton did to Robb, when the wind changed direction). Now, how would that look from Mace Tyrell's point of view? Going to bed with Joffrey Lannister certainly appears much less attractive!

Or not. Dunno, many things could happen. That's how it is with them hypotheticals. But Tyrion observed, even after Renly's death and after the Blackwater, “offend Tyrell and you offend Redwyne, Tarly, Rowan, and Hightower as well, and perhaps start them wondering whether Robb Stark might not be more accommodating of their desires”. If it was possible when Robb's position looked quite crappy, then it certainly would've been more likely with the power of the Vale of Arryn behind the Young Wolf.

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

I think it makes a huge difference. Here is just my opinion of whst could go down. Robb sends to Lysa Arryn while his forces are moving south. At this point we will say the Lannister have already moved into the Riverlands, but Lysa is ill lets say, and Lord Yohn Royce has taken over the protectorate of the Vale simply with an army. Lord Yohn immidiatly reaponds to Robb (with his own misgivings of what happened to hus liege Lord, Jon Arryn in mind) and moves to join Robb's foces somewhere near Darry or the crossroads. He brings most of the armies pf the Vale with him. As Robb is approaching the Twins, he now knows the Valish forces will he joining him, perhaps at this point there have even been some small skirmishes between Valish and Westerland forces. Now at the Twins, Walder Frey has different options. He has much less leverage. Robb can move against Tywin without crossing the river. I would guess at several options. One. Offer the Arya marriage, it should be enough to appease Walder Frey when he has much less to bargain with. Two. Simply leave the Freys out until after he confronta Tywin with a combo Northern/Valish army. Presumbly, since Robb is a great strategist, he may eevn win this. However I think Walder Frey, a man whi takes opportunities sees where the tide is going and takes the minor marriage offer to Arya. Robbs army gets through, whispering woods still happens but now Yohn Royce is in charge of the battle at the Green Fork (that is wheee it was?) against Tywin. He doesn't lead the men into purposeful slaighter like Roose and perhaps even wins the battle. I know this for sure, Tywin's losses will be far greater without a leader who is sabatoging their own army as his opponent. Let's take worse case and says Yohn Royce still loses but retreats with most of the army intact (after all the Whispering Woods is still the main battle). Tywin falls back to Harrenhall but this time after taking Riverrun, Robb sends Northern forces and Riverlandish forcss ro meet the Valish forces and surround Harrenhall. Catelyn is sent with a paltry force to speak to Renly. Things go basically the same. However afterwords either Catelyn thinks of or someone else semds word, and Margaerry Tyrell is offered a marriage to Robb. The Reach join Robb now, but Robb will only be interested in the West. I think perhaps after Stannis takes King's Landing and Robb crushes the Westerlands (killing or capturing Tywin in the process) they work out something. But as some said above they may have to fight but Robb will have a clear advantage. Even though Robb has always been honerable, perhaps someone like Margaery Tyrell will even convince him to stay in King's Landing himself. If Sansa is alive, maybe she is married to Trystan Martell or Harrold Arryn (Hardying). 

[Rob Storm]

Yes, I agree with many of the posts above.  The only thing I would like to add is that you could see the momentum changes with even the loss of the Karstarks and Freys.  Both of those two combined losses would have been bolstered 4-fold.  My point is morale can change in any battle when a major to above average sized house can make a difference.  

The Vale could have potentially influenced Roose and his belief that Robb could prevail.  Or influence Walder.  

Not sure if Gulltown has a significant fleet but that could have also been something to use after Moat Cailin was lost.  Send a squad back to White Harbor to retake the North from IB would have been easier. 

[Stormking902]

If the Vale joined from the beginning I dont think Roose Bolton or Walder Frey for that matter would betray Robb since he has a very high prospect of winning the war especially if he played defensivly. Also when Cat treated with Renly he would have takin her much more seriously and maybe a Sansa and Willas type deal is proposed to seal the Tyrells with the Starks so when Renly dies house Tyrell might not jump to team Lannister so fast, everyone knows Mace wants the crown so hell give it to him and return back North to Robbs new kingdom of the North, Trident and Vale the end lol.

[devilish]

As Robb showed, victories mean nothing unless there’s a so called domino effect. The battle of the trident just a generation earlier brought that domino effect with the Tyrells losing heart + the Lannisters, the Freys and the Greyjoys joining the fray. That topped the rebel’s army with the necessary numbers needed for Robert to outmuscle the Royalists.

Now would the Vale army have the same effect? I doubt it. However it would certainly have an impact on the course of history.  Considering that Lysa is a bit of a coward, then neither she nor her boy will march to battle. She’ll probably leave the war in her uncle’s and Royce’s hands.

The Knights of the Vale would reach Harrenhal first, securing it and providing protection to the Eastern side of the Riverlands. Their numbers will swell considerably with the Riverland Lords joining the Vale army as they prepare to march to Riverrun.  Tywin would have a choice here. Either he retreats while taking Edmure as a hostage or else he can march against the Vale hoping his superior numbers would be enough to crush the Knights of the Vale before Robb can step in. If he chooses the latter option then he’ll end up being caught between a rock and a hard place, with the Vale in front of him and the Northern army at his back. In my opinion he’ll probably choose to retreat behind the Westerlands line

Robb’s victory would become Brynden’s and Royce’s victory which means that the boy will have no opportunity to put a crown over his head. Bynden influence will increase and he’ll be named protector of the Riverlands (with many Lords hoping that Edmure would die so he’ll be appointed as LP in his stead). The Vale would dominate the war council since 

a-    They had provided Brynden (now temporary protector of the Riverlands) with the necessary troops he needed to liberate the Riverlands
b-    They had committed most of the troops (Vale has 20k, Robb brought 12k).
That means that Royce will dominate the council, backed by Brynden and Cat who are grateful for his leadership during the war. That mean, that Royce will probably persuade the rest to declare to Renly, boosting the younger Baratheon’s army from around 100k to around 140k. 

Considering that a king hates losing the shine to one of his subjects, he’ll probably march to KL knowing fully well, that his rear is protected by Vale+Riverlands+Northern army forces. Brynden will slow Tywin down, while Renly conquers KL with little effort, arresting the royal family and killing off all her children. Tywin will bend the knee, with Jamie appointed as his heir and Cersei+Tyrion kept as hostages for the rest of their lives. 

---------

In my opinion the catalyst remain Renly and the Tyrells. Would Renly leave the Stormlands and therefore avoid Stannis altogether if the Northern axis declare loyalty to him? After all he remains there only to see his enemies destroy one another! If the answer is no and Renly still die, would the Tyrells still join the Lannisters despite knowing that they would have to fight off 3 regions instead of 2?
 
 

[John Doe]

6 hours ago, devilish said:

 Tywin would have a choice here. Either he retreats while taking Edmure as a hostage or else he can march against the Vale hoping his superior numbers would be enough to crush the Knights of the Vale before Robb can step in.

The Lord's Declarant alone can raise 20k men, which is about the same amount Tywin had, he wouldn't have superior numbers. 

[Coolbeard the Exile]

If the Knights of the Vale would have joined Robb Stark i am confident he would be able to bring the Lannisters to justice, retake the North and rule the North and the Riverlands as king of the North and the Riverlands or perhaps as King of the Seven Kingdoms.

The Vale has around 30,000 soldiers and they would add to the 22,000 Northmen and 15,000 Rivermen and that would add up to 67,000 troops going against the 45,000 Westermen and 8000 Crownlanders combining 53,000. Robb Stark would have 14,000 more soldiers than Tywin Lannister. 

Events would play out Robb Stark would lead his cavalry to Riverrun and defeat and capture Jaime Lannister. Roose Bolton and Yohn Royce would try to engage Tywin Lannister but Tywin would retreat to Harrenhal. Robb Stark would take his Northern cavalry and the Rivermen troops to invade the Westerlands whilst Roose Bolton and Yohn Royce contain Tywin Lannister. Tywin would be unable to defend the Westerlands and so Robb Stark would take all of the Westerlands and the hostages. 

Tywin would have no chance at all of winning and the Tyrells wouldnt want to side with him because they can see he is getting his ass whopped so Tywin would be defeated around now in a battle. Robb would now retake the North real quick.

Stannis Baratheon would take King's Landing without Tywin and Mace attacking him and he would become king. Because many lords of the Reach had allready joined Stannis Mace and because he is a coward and because he dosnt want civil war inside the Reach he would accept him as his king and bend the knee and so Stannis army would rise to 100,000 Soldiers. 

It would be Robb Stark vs Stannis Baratheon and i think Robb Stark would bend the knee and accept Stannis as his King. Robb Stark and his army would have been very tired of war by now and everyone think that Stannis is a just, honest and honourable man and they wouldnt mind him being their king especially because he is next in the line of succession,

STANNIS THE MANNIS KING OF WESTEROS IF ARRYN JOIN ROBB CONFIRMED!

 

[devilish]

10 hours ago, John Doe said:

The Lord's Declarant alone can raise 20k men, which is about the same amount Tywin had, he wouldn't have superior numbers. 

Tywin had 20k under his command while Jamie had around 15k

[devilish]

9 hours ago, BeastMaster64 said:

If the Knights of the Vale would have joined Robb Stark i am confident he would be able to bring the Lannisters to justice, retake the North and rule the North and the Riverlands as king of the North and the Riverlands or perhaps as King of the Seven Kingdoms.

The Vale has around 30,000 soldiers and they would add to the 22,000 Northmen and 15,000 Rivermen and that would add up to 67,000 troops going against the 45,000 Westermen and 8000 Crownlanders combining 53,000. Robb Stark would have 14,000 more soldiers than Tywin Lannister. 

Events would play out Robb Stark would lead his cavalry to Riverrun and defeat and capture Jaime Lannister. Roose Bolton and Yohn Royce would try to engage Tywin Lannister but Tywin would retreat to Harrenhal. Robb Stark would take his Northern cavalry and the Rivermen troops to invade the Westerlands whilst Roose Bolton and Yohn Royce contain Tywin Lannister. Tywin would be unable to defend the Westerlands and so Robb Stark would take all of the Westerlands and the hostages. 

Tywin would have no chance at all of winning and the Tyrells wouldnt want to side with him because they can see he is getting his ass whopped so Tywin would be defeated around now in a battle. Robb would now retake the North real quick.

Stannis Baratheon would take King's Landing without Tywin and Mace attacking him and he would become king. Because many lords of the Reach had allready joined Stannis Mace and because he is a coward and because he dosnt want civil war inside the Reach he would accept him as his king and bend the knee and so Stannis army would rise to 100,000 Soldiers. 

It would be Robb Stark vs Stannis Baratheon and i think Robb Stark would bend the knee and accept Stannis as his King. Robb Stark and his army would have been very tired of war by now and everyone think that Stannis is a just, honest and honourable man and they wouldnt mind him being their king especially because he is next in the line of succession,

STANNIS THE MANNIS KING OF WESTEROS IF ARRYN JOIN ROBB CONFIRMED!

 

Your numbers are a bit wrong. According to AWOIF, Robb had 20k which included the Freys. The Vale can raise 45k but their numbers will be closer to 20k considering that Lysa will want to have her sweet robin heavily defended + time is a bit of an essence here. The Lannisters have more then 35k (20k under Tywin’s command, 15k under Jamie and an unknown amount of soldiers lead by Steffon).

Also Stannis sacking KL would not be the end of the war. Tommen is at Rosby and will probably find his way back to CR.  Mycella is in Dorne. The Tyrells are frightened about Stannis and for good reason

a-    They nearly starved him to death and they refused to bend the knee despite being the rightful ruler
b-    He’s married to a Florent, who have got equal claim to the reach then they do and had fought at Stannis side.
c-    Stannis killed Mace’s son in law
Therefore Mace would probably side still side with Tywin unless he’s convinced by the Northern coalition to do something else. (It’s possible, Royce will have a big say in the Northern army and his son had declared with Renly)
In this timeline I can see
a-    The Vale will be the heroes that save the day. Unlike Robb, Royce/Brynden have no Walder keeping them away from saving Edmure and can therefore march in the Riverlands with little opposition
b-    Tywin will be more cautious. He’ll avoid going too deep into the Riverlands territory to avoid a confrontation with the Vale.Whent will not forfeit Harrenhal, the Riverlands will be able to raise more troops and the Vale army numbers will swell considerably.
c-    Once Robb marches South, Tywin will retreat his troops to the Westerlands taking Edmure with them. Brynden will be appointed Lord Protector of the Riverlands with both him and Royce becoming the main leaders of the campaign. (Robb will be seen as too young and green to lead the council let alone put a crown on his head)
d-    Royce who will be backed by grateful Riverland Lords will probably push the Northern coalition to declare to Renly. His boy is at Renly’s side. 
e-    Renly’s plan change. He won’t wait for the wolf and the lion to skin one another because the wolf had declared to him. Therefore he will march to KL while ordering the Northern coalition to engage to war with Tywin if he dares leaving the Westerlands.
f-    Renly sacks KL, capturing Cersei, Joffrey and the Imp. He’ll probably execute Joffrey on the spot and he’ll offer a pardon to anyone who brings the usurpers home. Rosby might or might not be swayed to accept Renly’s offer (he probably won’t, there’s must be a reason why both Cersei and the Imp trusted the city) Negotiations start with both Tywin and Stannis. Stannis will of course refuse. Tywin would probably accept a sort of parlay especially since Cersei and the imp are in danger. 
g-    Arya finds her way to a Riverland’s Lord house. He will bring her to Robb
h-    Stannis may use magic to get rid of his brother. The crown is in disarray and discussions are made with Brynden, Mace, Royce, Mace, Robb, the stormlands lords on who should sit on the IT. Robb and the Stormlanders would probably push for Stannis. Royce, Mace and probably Brynden (who want his nephew back and he knows that Stannis will have Cersei and Tyrion executed which would lead to Tywin executing Edmure) will probably push for someone else.  Mace might come with a solution with Willas being declared king and Arya marrying him.  A chunk of the Stormlanders will flee to join Stannis down south only to be crushed by superior numbers.  Tywin will eventually bend the knee to King Willas in exchange of a pardon and Cersei marrying either Loras or Edmure.