Varys' plan for the Tyrells

[HouseFossoway]

Varys is currently manipulating events in Kings Landing to go favorably for rAegon/fAegon to ascend to the Iron Throne. I wonder though what his plans are concerning the Tyrells, and whether he will want to turn them against Cersei and Tommen so that they declare for Aegon, or help another reach house overthrow the Tyrells in an effort to defeat any house with ties to the Lannister/Baratheons.

Turning the Tyrells against the Lannisters would gain them a bunch of man power, and the Lannisters would lose most of theirs. It would also be easier to win over just the Tyrells, rather than one lesser house of the reach one at a time. Also, since the Tyrells were nominally loyal during the rebellion, and the Tyrells still seem to be quite popular amongst the smallfolk, it might make sense from a PR standpoint to win them over to Aegon's side. It's true that the golden company members talked about having friends in the reach who might want to take down the Tyrells, but Varys isn't the golden company, and if he convinces the Tyrells to switch sides before too much reach/GC blood has been spilled, it would be too late for the golden company to overthrow them.

On the other hand, the Tyrells did throw their lot in with the Baratheons, and seem to be publicly supporting them and not Aegon at the moment, so Varys might deem that to be too difficult. And while the Tyrells aren't as spent a force as the Lannisters, they are spread out, and under the command of many different lords who might betray them. And highgarden would be a pretty good reward to promise someone who might want to switch, or one of the golden company generals.

[The Drunkard]

I think he'd be open to turning them, but I imagine Mace would be the unwilling one. As it stands he is the Hand, his daughter is the queen, and he controls a large portion of the Small Council, none of which he's likely to retain if Aegon comes to power (seeing as he has his own advisers and still wants to marry Dany, so a polygamous marriage is all Mace can hope for). 

Anyway, I expect the Tyrell side will seem far less appealing when TWOW begins.

Connington defeated Mathis Rowan at Storm's End and took the castle. Someone is leading a Tyrell army to face him, which I expect is Mace given his comments in the ADWD epilogue, and he'll no doubt screw up. And the Redwyne Fleet is sailing towards Euron which means they're probably doomed.

If they suffer a string of losses like that the "friends in the Reach" and other opportunistic lords may decide Aegon is more appealing and jump ship, leaving Mace nowhere near the powerhouse he currently is.

[dariopatke]

I actually think Varys wants to depose Tyrells for several reasons:

Mostly because they are too greedy, they will not change sides before Aegon marries Marge amd that price they shall not pay. So price for their support is too high, lets see is it worth it.

Aegon already has most of his SC, Illirio is MoC, Varys MoW, Jon is Hand and it os likely that he will at least to make Haldon Grandmaester. Mace wants more than ships and laws, he aldready has them along with Handship.

Tyrells are related to some powerful Reach Lords but they are despised n Reach, and if f.e. Tyrell children are treated fairly Hightowers would not opose (plus they have their own problems), if Garlans family is treated well Fossoways would not opose him, but remember that Fossoways backed Stannis and not Tyrells amd Hightowers seemed to stay neutral, they are not as loyal as it seems. So an ancient house gaining control of Reach could be popular.

Mace doesnt have that many men at his command, around 30k led by incompetent greedy commander, but Randyll has roughly the same number led by the best or second best commander in Westeros who has constantly been mistrated by Mace.

So if Varys makes an alliance with Randyll in KL it can be more than enough to crush Mace, secure support of Reach and force Vale into submission because LF would not attack in that case.

[Greywater-Watch]

37 minutes ago, dariopatke said:

Tyrells are related to some powerful Reach Lords but they are despised n Reach

I may have forgotten about this. Can you give evidence about the Tyrell's being despised in the Reach?

[chrisdaw]

Olenna is an isolationist who wanted nothing to do with the game of thrones and KL. Willas listens to Olenna and is pious. Mace is the only political ambition in House Tyrell. It is arranged so that Varys has only to knock Mace off (though MAce could very well get himself killed and save Varys the trouble) and have the HS declare for Aegon and the Tyrells will fall in place. Olenna will want out of KL and Willas will be inclined to go where the Faith lead. Better still if Varys can give Marge back to them in one piece.
 

[aryagonnakill#2]

6 hours ago, dariopatke said:

I actually think Varys wants to depose Tyrells for several reasons:

Mostly because they are too greedy, they will not change sides before Aegon marries Marge amd that price they shall not pay. So price for their support is too high, lets see is it worth it.

Aegon already has most of his SC, Illirio is MoC, Varys MoW, Jon is Hand and it os likely that he will at least to make Haldon Grandmaester. Mace wants more than ships and laws, he aldready has them along with Handship.

Tyrells are related to some powerful Reach Lords but they are despised n Reach, and if f.e. Tyrell children are treated fairly Hightowers would not opose (plus they have their own problems), if Garlans family is treated well Fossoways would not opose him, but remember that Fossoways backed Stannis and not Tyrells amd Hightowers seemed to stay neutral, they are not as loyal as it seems. So an ancient house gaining control of Reach could be popular.

Mace doesnt have that many men at his command, around 30k led by incompetent greedy commander, but Randyll has roughly the same number led by the best or second best commander in Westeros who has constantly been mistrated by Mace.

So if Varys makes an alliance with Randyll in KL it can be more than enough to crush Mace, secure support of Reach and force Vale into submission because LF would not attack in that case.

 

5 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

I may have forgotten about this. Can you give evidence about the Tyrell's being despised in the Reach?

Randyl may harbor some resentment on Mace for taking the glory of his victories, and a few other houses all had better claims on Highgarden than the Tyrells did, but only 1 of them could be appeased with the castle, the rest would just become bitter at the new lords.

That hardly equals them being despised.

[Seams]

It's pretty clear that alienating the Tyrells from the Lannisters is one of Varys' primary goals in the Epilogue of ADwD:

...you were threatening to undo all the queen's good work, to reconcile Highgarden and Casterly Rock, bind the faith to your little king, unite the Seven Kingdoms under Tommen's rule. So...

I thought the crossbow fitting. You shared so much with Lord Tywin, why not that? Your niece will think the Tyrells had you murdered, mayhaps with the connivance of the Imp. The Tyrells will suspect her. Someone somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishmen. Doubt, division, and mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm's End and the lords of the realm gather round him.

If people figure out that Cersei deliberately sent Ser Loras into the teeth of a tremendous battle, leading to his torturous injuries, or trumped up the evidence to put Margaery on trial; or if (when) she replaces Mace Tyrell with a new Hand of the King, the alliance will be broken. As others pointed out, Willas might lead an anti-Lannister House Tyrell, and I suspect that Ser Garlan could also take on that role. He was probably a spy for Olenna while he was in King's Landing, and could have been building alliances behind the scenes while she was having tea with Sansa or with Cersei.

Margaery will probably leave King's Landing and, when she is safely away at Highgarden, will claim that she is pregnant with Tommen's child. (I suspect she was pregnant with Joffrey's - or someone's - child before their wedding, which is why she needed the moon tea from Pycelle when Joffrey was killed before the bedding.) This creates a crisis in the succession, even if Tommen is still alive, destabilizing the Lannister hold on the Iron Throne.

Of course, Tyrells controlling a Baratheon (Lannister) heir would not be something Varys would want, but he probably knows who is the real father of Margaery's child, and can reveal that information when it serves his purpose. If she is not pregnant, he can assure the Tyrells that Margaery's marriage to Tommen can be annulled and (falsely) promise that Aegon will marry her after he has things under control in the Seven Kingdoms. First, he wants Aegon on the throne.

[LordImp]

Depose them and install the Tarlys as Lord paramounts of the Reach . 

[Lord Varys]

10 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

Olenna is an isolationist who wanted nothing to do with the game of thrones and KL. Willas listens to Olenna and is pious. Mace is the only political ambition in House Tyrell. It is arranged so that Varys has only to knock Mace off (though MAce could very well get himself killed and save Varys the trouble) and have the HS declare for Aegon and the Tyrells will fall in place. Olenna will want out of KL and Willas will be inclined to go where the Faith lead. Better still if Varys can give Marge back to them in one piece.

That is not very likely. TWoIaF makes it pretty clear that the Tyrell ambition to control the Iron Throne comes from Luthor and Olenna being slighted by the Targaryens. Whatever ambitions Mace has must go back to his parents, and especially his mother.

Olenna being against the stupid Renly plan (which would only have caused problems in the long run even if it was successful at first) doesn't mean she doesn't want to see House Tyrell in control of the Iron Throne, quite the opposite, actually.

Right now the ace up House Tyrell's sleeve actually is Euron Greyjoy and the Ironborn threat. Even if there are some friends of the Golden Company in the Reach the chance that those men will go to war over the issue who should be King on the Iron Throne while the Reach itself is threatened by invaders just isn't very likely. Right now, Willas and Garlan are mustering armies to deal with the Ironborn, and regardless whether they succeed or fail the men of the Reach won't forget that the Tyrells stood by their side and defended their lands.

And how loyal Mace and Tarly will remain to Tommen should also depend on Cersei's future behavior and actions. If Tommen dies, the alliance is over. If Margaery dies, the alliance is over. If Cersei tries to kill (or actually kills) Mace, the alliance is over. And so on.

Varys should have no issues with the Tyrells if they decide that Aegon might be a better king than Tommen.

[Curled Finger]

46 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys should have no issues with the Tyrells if they decide that Aegon might be a better king than Tommen.

My only problem with the Tyrells changing allegiance is that it's obvious Mace is a climber.   Marg has been sold to 3 kings--she is the Tyrell price.  Mace is an opportunist, I haven't seen anything in his actions indicate that he is even aware there are problems in Kings Landing.   He seems very focused on having Marg, his stake, cleared of the charges against her.   Most Mace just blusters and seems not to have any clear opinions regarding the threat of the Faith Militant, Jamie's disappearance, Vary's disappearance.   It's like he has considered everything only as it relates to him and his power grab.   I've heard plenty of talk about rewarding sell swords, but nothing about how Aegon plans to deal with Westerosi houses that jump on his bandwagon.   I mean, we know what the price of Mace's loyalty is.    I could be wrong and I'm sure you can straighten me out on this.   But this is how it reads to me. 

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Curled Finger said:

My only problem with the Tyrells changing allegiance is that it's obvious Mace is a climber.   Marg has been sold to 3 kings--she is the Tyrell price.  Mace is an opportunist, I haven't seen anything in his actions indicate that he is even aware there are problems in Kings Landing.   He seems very focused on having Marg, his stake, cleared of the charges against her.   Most Mace just blusters and seems not to have any clear opinions regarding the threat of the Faith Militant, Jamie's disappearance, Vary's disappearance.   It's like he has considered everything only as it relates to him and his power grab.   I've heard plenty of talk about rewarding sell swords, but nothing about how Aegon plans to deal with Westerosi houses that jump on his bandwagon.   I mean, we know what the price of Mace's loyalty is.    I could be wrong and I'm sure you can straighten me out on this.   But this is how it reads to me. 

Right now, with the power in KL falling into Mace's lap thanks to Kevan's untimely demise I'm completely with you. He and Tarly will be calling the shots now, at least officially (I'm pretty sure most of the mid-tier men in the city are either Varys' men or Targaryen loyalists - which would be the same - with Mace and Randyll lacking the knowledge or skill to replace them with their own).

But that's not going to stay that way for long. The trials approach, the Dornish will arrive soon (if they weren't captured by the Golden Company), and Aegon has to be dealt with. Cersei is going to try to do something, and so on. Things could get messy and bloody pretty fast, especially if the Faith and the sparrows get drawn into all that (say, perhaps because Mace declares Margaery's innocence through Tommen, angering the High Septon).

Tommen, Margaery, or Mace might not live through all that, and the death of any of those would change the power dynamics quite severely. It is pretty clear that Mace would never lead the Reach into an alliance with Aegon - he would do that to save his skin, his titles, and his power. But if those are threatened and if the alliance with the Lannisters is definitely over he would simply have no other choice. He cannot crown himself. Throwing Margaery at Aegon now would look pretty ridiculous. That could only work if Mace had saved Aegon's throne - but that's not likely to happen.

If you read the Epilogue there are some strong hints that things are really chilly between the Tyrells and Lannisters. Kevan and Mace could work with each other because both knew and acknowledged that Cersei was the one who was trying to ruin everything. But Kevan is gone now, and Mace must know that Cersei send his son to Dragonstone to die and schemed to see his precious daughter executed. He is not going to forget that.

We can safely say that the alliance is already over because Mace is not going to work with Cersei. They are now as much at odds with each other as Aegon is with them. And I'm pretty sure both will fail to realize the danger Aegon poses until the Tyrell army that's going to march against Storm's End is defeated. And then it will be too late.

I expect especially new twists during the coming trials (if they take place - were I Mace I would seize Cersei immediately and take the Regency, and were I Cersei I'd take Tommen as soon as I could and flee the city before *they* killed me and Tommen, too). Those would be ideal occasions for Varys to mess with them even more, eventually resulting in a civil war in KL. Not to mention that Cersei might just snap and command Ser Robert to kill every Tyrell in the castle to save Tommen from their evil influence. I guess he could do that.

[chrisdaw]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

That is not very likely. TWoIaF makes it pretty clear that the Tyrell ambition to control the Iron Throne comes from Luthor and Olenna being slighted by the Targaryens. Whatever ambitions Mace has must go back to his parents, and especially his mother.

No it doesn't, ASOIAF makes it blatantly clear Olenna is an isolationist whose primary concern is her familial safety and that she looks down on Mace's ambition. It is made clear by Olenna's own energetic and long winded explanation the very first time we meet her.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, chrisdaw said:

No it doesn't, ASOIAF makes it blatantly clear Olenna is an isolationist whose primary concern is her familial safety and that she looks down on Mace's ambition. It is made clear by Olenna's own energetic and long winded explanation the very first time we meet her.

While there is an outsider, Sansa Stark, in their midst. What makes you believe Olenna Redwyne would be honest to such a person? She later used her as her pawn in a plot to assassinate the king and had no issue with framing her for the entire thing.

The Renly plan was stupid. The Joffrey plan was stupid, too, although she took care of the obstacles there. Tommen was workable, and that's why the Lannister-Tyrell alliance was made in the first place.

But even if she was an isolationist - the war has come to the Reach with the Ironborn now. The Tyrells cannot ignore that. They will have to choose sides, and Olenna and Willas are not likely the people to make those decision. It will fall to Mace, at least while he yet lives. Willas and Garlan are occupied with the Ironborn already. They won't be able to influence events in KL.

[Curled Finger]

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If you read the Epilogue there are some strong hints that things are really chilly between the Tyrells and Lannisters. Kevan and Mace could work with each other because both knew and acknowledged that Cersei was the one who was trying to ruin everything. But Kevan is gone now, and Mace must know that Cersei send his son to Dragonstone to die and schemed to see his precious daughter executed. He is not going to forget that.

We can safely say that the alliance is already over because Mace is not going to work with Cersei. They are now as much at odds with each other as Aegon is with them. And I'm pretty sure both will fail to realize the danger Aegon poses until the Tyrell army that's going to march against Storm's End is defeated. And then it will be too late.

I expect especially new twists during the coming trials (if they take place - were I Mace I would seize Cersei immediately and take the Regency, and were I Cersei I'd take Tommen as soon as I could and flee the city before *they* killed me and Tommen, too). Those would be ideal occasions for Varys to mess with them even more, eventually resulting in a civil war in KL. Not to mention that Cersei might just snap and command Ser Robert to kill every Tyrell in the castle to save Tommen from their evil influence. I guess he could do that.

That's a really good point, Kevan is the one who smoothed things over between Mace and the Lannisters.    And Mace is Hand.   I am unclear how many men Mace really has at his beck and call, but I would imagine his resources have been tasked in the Battle at Blackwater, Dragonstone and Euron's buggery in the islands.   I am also under the impression the Lannister forces were basically sent with either Jamie or back to the Westerlands.   Mace has Tarly's men in Kings Landing (this is why I think the Tyrell forces have shrunk) and many of them will be sent to deal with either Aegon or even more Iron Born zaniness in the south.   Mace will probably need some Lannister reenforcement in Kings Landing if nowhere else.    I can just see Cersei sabotaging that.  She is after all, the Lady of the Rock.   

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Curled Finger said:

That's a really good point, Kevan is the one who smoothed things over between Mace and the Lannisters.    And Mace is Hand.   I am unclear how many men Mace really has at his beck and call, but I would imagine his resources have been tasked in the Battle at Blackwater, Dragonstone and Euron's buggery in the islands.   I am also under the impression the Lannister forces were basically sent with either Jamie or back to the Westerlands.   Mace has Tarly's men in Kings Landing (this is why I think the Tyrell forces have shrunk) and many of them will be sent to deal with either Aegon or even more Iron Born zaniness in the south.   Mace will probably need some Lannister reenforcement in Kings Landing if nowhere else.    I can just see Cersei sabotaging that.  She is after all, the Lady of the Rock.   

Mace has right now two large armies in the city. In my estimation at least about 30,000 men, most of them Reach men. He owns the place. Kevan had pretty much no men, he admits himself he cannot move against the Golden Company on his own, and Cersei is not likely to command even the loyalty of those men after her walk. After all, they saw her naked, dirty, and humiliated. Not to mention that she actually confessed to have committed adultery.

Tarly's men are essentially Mace's men. They just gave Tarly command over them when they tasked him with defeating the Northmen near Duskendale in ASoS.

The Lannister forces were sent home back in AFfC.

Depending on the time line and events in the city I think Mace's problem will be that he is going to be forced to keep a good portion, perhaps even half of the Tyrell forces, in KL to keep the peace which is going to be the reason why Aegon's men will crush the Tyrell army marching against Storm's End.

The sparrows are very numerous in KL and with enemies out there Mace cannot risk riots or a civil war in the city. But when the news about Aegon's victory arrive everything might go to hell for him.

Not to mention that Mace also needs men in KL to ensure Margaery's safety should her trial take place and not be over when the army is going to march against Aegon. Mace is not going to give the Faith the opportunity to actually seize or execute his daughter regardless how the trial goes.

And if there is no trial or if Mace or Cersei anger the High Septon (say, by not going along with the Margaery trial or by using some zombie as a cop-out during the trial-by-combat - I don't think the Seven look kindly on black magic monsters) then the Tyrell men might be needed to keep the peace in the city or fight the civil war in the streets and protect the Red Keep from the rioters/sparrows/Faith Militant.

It really depends how things turn out. However, my guess is that Cersei will soon be forced to flee the capital and eventually hook up (and marry) Euron to take her revenge. Tommen (and Myrcella, if she has arrived by then?) might die during that escape. A very powerful scenario could be if Cersei jumps on the chance to get away in the wake of her trial-by-combat. She might get out of the Red Keep and into the Great Sept for that. If Tommen is going to present she could make a grab for him and just run to a ship.

If something like that happened the Tyrell cause would quickly disintegrate and they would have to hand the city and the throne to Aegon because they cannot hold it without a pretender king.

[chrisdaw]

40 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

While there is an outsider, Sansa Stark, in their midst.

So Olenna concocted this plan where she'd falsely talk down Mace as an oaf for seeking power and say how the Lannisters are blindly leading them all to disaster, in case she might be overheard, because that serves her super ambitions . . . how exactly? 

It's all absurd. Olenna hates the whole thing, hates the whole place, gives no shits for any of it and is only there to safeguard against the stories of Joff, because her only concern is family and Joff seemed a  direct threat to Marge's safety. Once he's out of the picture Olenna is off too.

[John Doe]

43 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

So Olenna concocted this plan where she'd falsely talk down Mace as an oaf for seeking power and say how the Lannisters are blindly leading them all to disaster, in case she might be overheard, because that serves her super ambitions . . . how exactly? 

It's all absurd. Olenna hates the whole thing, hates the whole place, gives no shits for any of it and is only there to safeguard against the stories of Joff, because her only concern is family and Joff seemed a  direct threat to Marge's safety. Once he's out of the picture Olenna is off too.

Agreed. 

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

So Olenna concocted this plan where she'd falsely talk down Mace as an oaf for seeking power and say how the Lannisters are blindly leading them all to disaster, in case she might be overheard, because that serves her super ambitions . . . how exactly? 

It's all absurd. Olenna hates the whole thing, hates the whole place, gives no shits for any of it and is only there to safeguard against the stories of Joff, because her only concern is family and Joff seemed a  direct threat to Marge's safety. Once he's out of the picture Olenna is off too.

Olenna does not falsely talk down Mace as an oaf. She might very well think her son isn't very smart. However, that doesn't mean she does not share his ambitions. She is later as crucial in the Tommen-Margaery marriage as Mace is. If her only concern was her family she would have decided that Margaery should not marry King Tommen after Joff's death, and that she would return home with her to marry some other guy.

Keep in mind that it is Olenna and her poisoning plot that ensures the success of Tyrell ambition, nothing else.

[Daemon The Black Dragon]

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is not very likely. TWoIaF makes it pretty clear that the Tyrell ambition to control the Iron Throne comes from Luthor and Olenna being slighted by the Targaryens. Whatever ambitions Mace has must go back to his parents, and especially his mother.

Olenna being against the stupid Renly plan (which would only have caused problems in the long run even if it was successful at first) doesn't mean she doesn't want to see House Tyrell in control of the Iron Throne, quite the opposite, actually.

Right now the ace up House Tyrell's sleeve actually is Euron Greyjoy and the Ironborn threat. Even if there are some friends of the Golden Company in the Reach the chance that those men will go to war over the issue who should be King on the Iron Throne while the Reach itself is threatened by invaders just isn't very likely. Right now, Willas and Garlan are mustering armies to deal with the Ironborn, and regardless whether they succeed or fail the men of the Reach won't forget that the Tyrells stood by their side and defended their lands.

 

If the Tyrells fail defending the Reach against the IB and Aegon and his army come in and defeat/stop the IB. I would think most of the Reach would throw their support behind Aegon as their King. Cersei isn't going to help them with their IB problem. 

[Lord Varys]

14 minutes ago, Daemon The Black Dragon said:

If the Tyrells fail defending the Reach against the IB and Aegon and his army come in and defeat/stop the IB. I would think most of the Reach would throw their support behind Aegon as their King. Cersei isn't going to help them with their IB problem. 

Aegon doesn't have a fleet. He cannot stop or defeat the Ironborn. Aegon wants the Iron Throne. He does not want to get entangled in some longterm campaign against the Ironborn while his enemies can regroup. He is way too close to KL right now to go anywhere else, especially if Dorne joins him.

Without ships even 20,000 additional Dornish spears wouldn't help him against the Ironborn. Which is why Aegon is going to ignore this whole crisis, at least until he has taken the Iron Throne. Then he might begin a campaign to help the Lords of the Reach and they will then have no other choice but to acknowledge him as their king because Cersei's children will be dead/deposed, not to mention that the Lords of the Reach are most likely going to need his (or rather: anybody's) help against the Ironborn.