Convince me that Brexit wasn't a terrible act of self-harm

[Maester of Valyria]

I live in the UK, and on 24th June this year I woke up to a different country than the one I'd gone to sleep in.

Brexit was, on every level, a catastrophe. Our economy is severely damaged with sterling down massively against major currencies and the prospect of losing access to the EU single market. The UK's standing internationally has been, perhaps irrevocably, damaged by our childish fit of xenophobia and isolationism. European security is now threatened by a weakened EU and a weakened UK, in the face of increased Russian aggression and a US President-elect who's commitment to NATO and collective defence is smaller than the 1 Euro-cent coin.

And all this for a pack of lies, fed to us by a lying media and a bunch of irresponsible politicians in it for the glory, in the quest for benefits which it is clear are never going to materialise!

I consider myself a citizen of Europe before I do a citizen of the United (ha) Kingdom, and for the past five months I have been constantly fretting over my future and that of my friends and family. So please, if there is someone there who is willing to try and convince me that Brexit was in fact a great decision, and not the greatest act of political and economic self-harm my country has ever made, then I'm all ears. Five months on, let's put our respective ideologies to the test.

 

[for the Mods: if this is in the wrong place then please move or delete: I couldn't find a politics thread and there are a lot of Trump topics in General Chatter]

[Pebble thats Stubby]

For Ref  this is the Politics thread you where looking for   http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/143440-uk-politics-the-overton-defenestration/

 

 

the plus sides of Brexit.

1.  We got to see Fararge resign again.  - With luck he will stay in the US.

2.  We get shorter? queues for boarder control when entering the country.  - I know one person who voted Brexit for this reason, and this reason only.

3.  Voting Brexit keeps up the tradition of 2016.   (not that its a good thing, but at least its consistent)

4.  Brexit has been so horrifying that we have not had any political slashfic in the UK thread all year.  - Has anyone checked that Lummel is ok?

5.  Maybe we we completely Tank our economy and with Trump in the US, this could trigger a complete collapse of the capitalist system and if we are really really lucky those of us that live through it all we may end up with a better fairer way system and we all get to live in a Star trek no money utopia?   

6.  Your living though a time period which will be of great interest to future historians.  keep a diary, you might be able to sell it for a fortune in years to come.

7.  By being a remainer you get to say "I told you so"

8.  By being a remainer, your probably not living in the most deprived areas of the UK or the areas that where getting the most EU grant money, but infact living in an area that was paying more into the EU and thus you are much better off than most of those who voted to leave.

9.   there probably was a small part of you that kinda wanted to know what would really happen if we made that stupid decisions to leave, well now at least your curiosity will be satisfied.   Curiosity never harmed the cat.

10.  Brexit has caused me to expand my imaginative abilities, beyond what they once where just to see a glimmer of a bright side.

[Werthead]

In order for Brexit to work, or make sense, then the rest of the EU needs to implode to put all of Europe on the same level pegging.

Without that, then at present it's not possible to say it isn't an act of self-harm. Membership of the European Union has been an underpinning of the British economy for 40 years. Removing that underpinning makes us a poorer country for the next generation or two. With the EU chief negotiator confirming that any kind of access to the single market means keeping freedom of movement, and us saying we'll ditch it, that really just completely closes down that possibility. We are probably screwed.

The only thing that'll offset it is if we do discover several trillion pounds worth of oil under the Falkland Islands (which will make that a fun place to be again) or if America gives us some ludicrously disproportionate favoured-status trading agreement to the detriment of the EU, but I can't see how Trump the Businessman would give that up.

[Theda Baratheon]

On the plus side, Trump being elected was so catastrophically awful that most people totally forgot about how stupid and shit brexit was for a short while! 

[Maithanet]

If the next fifteen years are as bad for the UK economy as forecast, is there much of a possibility of applying for re-admittance? 

[Hereward]

Did anyone remember to bring the biscuit?

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

53 minutes ago, Maester of Valyria said:

Brexit was, on every level, a catastrophe.

Steady on now, it's barely started! You ain't seen nothing yet.

I've seen it thrown around that UK citizens may be allowed to elect to remain EU citizens on an individual basis, but I think I  may have read that in a Independent headline I scrolled past on Facebook, so it's not at all reliable.

[williamjm]

6 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

If the next fifteen years are as bad for the UK economy as forecast, is there much of a possibility of applying for re-admittance? 

I'd suspect it would be more likely the UK would rejoin the single market (assume it leaves in the first place) rather than the EU, since I think even a lot of people who think Brexit is a mistake aren't necessarily that enthusiastic about some of the other bits of the EU. There's no reason they couldn't reapply to the EU, but it would probably have a worse deal than at the moment, I can't imagine the EU being in a hurry to offer to reinstate the UK's rebate if they tried to rejoin. 

I've seen it thrown around that UK citizens may be allowed to elect to remain EU citizens on an individual basis, but I think I  may have read that in a Independent headline I scrolled past on Facebook, so it's not at all reliable.

I think I read the same story. I think there's a proposed bill in the European Parliament to allow this, but I don't know if there's any prospect that it passes or if it's just an idea a few MEPs had.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

9 minutes ago, Stannis Eats No Peaches said:

Steady on now, it's barely started! You ain't seen nothing yet.

I've seen it thrown around that UK citizens may be allowed to elect to remain EU citizens on an individual basis, but I think I  may have read that in a Independent headline I scrolled past on Facebook, so it's not at all reliable.

There is a petition for that.  but it won't happen.

 

[Stalker]

1 hour ago, Maester of Valyria said:

Brexit was, on every level, a catastrophe. Our economy is severely damaged with sterling down massively against major currencies and the prospect of losing access to the EU single market.

 

I doubt it. Currency value simply reflects the markets reactions, which based on expectations of the future, not the current state of the economy. Nor is it realistic to think the Tories would accept a loss of access to the single market. Too many corporation rely on it.

Most likely, what we will see is a pseudo membership, like Switzerland and Norway have. Very little will change, except that the UK loses some influence over both its own policies, and internationally.   

 

 

[Prue]

Norway accepted all the features of the EU the Brexit-fans rejected, though, without having a say in the EU parliament. I.e. they agreed to allow migrants from the EU.

I doubt that individual EU-membership will be allowed. But I read that many British persons who live in Germany are panicking and apply for German citizenship. And that might be the case for many Brits in other EU-states, too. Today they said on the radio, that 96 % of people in Gibraltar voted in favour of staying in the EU, and many consider getting Spanish citizenship now.

 

[Maltaran]

20 minutes ago, Prue said:

But I read that many British persons who live in Germany are panicking and apply for German citizenship

 

Not just those who live there - apparently a lot of British Jews whose grandparents fled Germany in the 30s are using that relationship to apply for German citizenship, plus post offices in Northern Ireland ran out of Irish passport application forms.

[mormont]

Can't be done. Brexit was and is a disaster. The government have no idea how to square the circle of free trade but no free movement, let alone deal with ancillary problems such as the Irish land border. Fools that they were, they went into a referendum with no plan for one of the outcomes. This is the major reason Leave won, IMO: Leave campaigners could say anything they liked, because there was no white paper realistically setting out what Leave actually meant.

[Stannis is the man....nis]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

In order for Brexit to work, or make sense, then the rest of the EU needs to implode to put all of Europe on the same level pegging.

Without that, then at present it's not possible to say it isn't an act of self-harm. Membership of the European Union has been an underpinning of the British economy for 40 years. Removing that underpinning makes us a poorer country for the next generation or two. With the EU chief negotiator confirming that any kind of access to the single market means keeping freedom of movement, and us saying we'll ditch it, that really just completely closes down that possibility. We are probably screwed.

The only thing that'll offset it is if we do discover several trillion pounds worth of oil under the Falkland Islands (which will make that a fun place to be again) or if America gives us some ludicrously disproportionate favoured-status trading agreement to the detriment of the EU, but I can't see how Trump the Businessman would give that up.

That could be were Bannon comes in

[Liffguard]

I voted to remain, but I don't think that Brexit necessarily has to be a complete disaster at the conceptual level.

No, I simply think it will be a disaster since it seems that no one knows what they're doing. There's no plan, no unified negotiation strategy, not even the basic organisational infrastructure to pull it off in the alotted time. This is the single largest national undertaking by the UK since the Second World War. It needs to be all hands on deck, total comittment from every level of civil society. Instead, our leaders are fucking about trying to ban bondage porn. What kind of fucked up priorities are those? Does no one appreciate the sheer scale of what we've decided to take on?

[HexMachina]

13 minutes ago, mormont said:

Can't be done. Brexit was and is a disaster. The government have no idea how to square the circle of free trade but no free movement, let alone deal with ancillary problems such as the Irish land border. Fools that they were, they went into a referendum with no plan for one of the outcomes. This is the major reason Leave won, IMO: Leave campaigners could say anything they liked, because there was no white paper realistically setting out what Leave actually meant.

Sure there was. Brexit means Brexit, obviously...

[Lordsteve666]

It pisses me off no end that when the world would really be pulling together for the better of the planet and humanity we're busy splitting off into isolationist colonies still, as if we're all living 200 years ago.

The right wing isolationist bollocks that the likes of Farage, Trump , Le Pen and a whole load of other spout is the biggest threat to humanity ever actually getting anywhere on this miserable rock. We have the tech and the minds to do great things, but some parts of society at large seem content to just sit in their cave glaring at the foreigners next door and dreaming up all sorts of crazy reasons why their way of life must be preserved.

Humanity has come along way in 5000 year and splitting off into smaller groups and tribes is in my view going backwards. Jesus we've landed on the Moon and put probes on the moons of Saturn, why the crap are we arguing splitting up because we can't possibly work together about how to look after refugees or care for the environment etc. Jesus...

[Rippounet]

There is one way for the Brexit to work out: if a major European country elects an anti-European leader who proposes a referendum to leave the EU, the country leaves, and the single market crumbles.

But the possibility is rather slim. Many people from the alt-right think Le Pen can win the election in France and pull the country out of the EU. But now that Sarkozy is out of the picture it won't be easy for Le Pen to win, since she'll have a credible right-wing opponent at least (either Fillon or Juppé). And even if she somehow won, there's no guarantee that a majority would vote for Frexit, precisely because Brexit showed the dangers of abstentionism to everyone.

18 minutes ago, Liffguard said:

I voted to remain, but I don't think that Brexit necessarily has to be a complete disaster at the conceptual level.

And yet... Right now I believe you can't have access to the single market without accepting immigration from the EU...

Even assuming Britain managed to negotiate such a deal, it would have to pay colossal amounts of money in exchange, which would make it a mediocre deal at best.

Also, now that the British courts seem to be bent on enforcing parliamentary sovereignty, the ability of Britain to negotiate a good deal with the EU doesn't seem great, especially since the European authorities want to make an example out of it.

So no, I'm afraid even on the conceptual level, Brexit was always a terrible idea. Britain had a much better potential of using its influence to change the EU from the inside. Which is exactly what Cameron tried to do after all. But his plan to use British euroskepticism to get a better deal with the EU backfired spectacularly. I'll daresay he (and many of his Conservative friends) were too greedy.

1 minute ago, Lordsteve666 said:

It pisses me off no end that when the world would really be pulling together for the better of the planet and humanity we're busy splitting off into isolationist colonies still, as if we're all living 200 years ago.

And yet, it's precisely because humanity has never been so closely knit that isolationism is on the rise. Many people are terrified of the perspective of a unified world in which national identity becomes anecdotal. Many Westerners are already terrified of anyone whose skin is darker than their own. Unfortunately, it's not easy for humans to be tolerant of differences, even when said differences (looks, culture, religion... etc) are actually quite minor.

And of course, the dominant economic system is unpopular with the masses... With good reason too. Why would unskilled workers in the West want to compete with unskilled workers in developing countries? People are not utter fools. They're aware that globalism means workers competing for jobs, and that it's the corporations that reap the benefits of it (not the individuals as customers).

I'm biased, but I think the problem is that both the EU and globalism were founded on bad economic grounds. Free trade is great on paper, but in practice it doesn't benefit the masses (or at least, not as much as it was supposed to). I believe on some level there's a structural economic problem: it's impossible for all countries to simultaneously experience significant economic growth in a globalized world (or even in a large single market). It should be possible in theory, but it just doesn't work that way today.

[Hereward]

14 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Also, now that the British courts seem to be bent on enforcing parliamentary sovereignty, the ability of Britain to negotiate a good deal with the EU doesn't seem great, especially since the European authorities want to make an example out of it.

They may well want to make an example of it, as they did with Greece. But they should be careful of that, as there are still many things the EU countries, if not the EU bureaucracy itself, want from Britain. Take military cooperation and commitment, take intelligence provision, take the UK's relationship with the US, the significant contribution to eastern EU countries of their citizens in the UK. The UK citizens made a major error in deciding that they could take the bits of the relationship they liked as givens and reject the rest. The EU is in danger of doing the very same thing.

[Castel]

1 hour ago, mormont said:

Can't be done. Brexit was and is a disaster. The government have no idea how to square the circle of free trade but no free movement, let alone deal with ancillary problems such as the Irish land border. Fools that they were, they went into a referendum with no plan for one of the outcomes. This is the major reason Leave won, IMO: Leave campaigners could say anything they liked, because there was no white paper realistically setting out what Leave actually meant.

That's what yes/no propositions on something that open-ended get you