Why haven't the Boltons been told about the Wights?

[Impbread]

3 hours ago, bent branch said:

I agree there is no plot hole. In fact, the NW requesting aid and being ignored or rejected is the story. The problem is that people don't believe what they are hearing, not that tagreedhe NW isn't trying to warn people.

agreed.Current conditions in the north wouldnt allow him to deal with the threat of the the others even if he did know and take it seriously

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

On 12/3/2016 at 6:02 PM, Lord Varys said:

It is a plot hole that this possibility is simply not discussed and then dismissed for some (strange and contrived) reason. The people at the Wall need all the help they can get. The wildlings wanted to cross the Wall to hide behind it. They know what's coming. They would want all the kneelers to know so that they can all defend that Wall together (or perhaps only the kneelers do that job while they enjoy the sun of Dorne).

Trying to convince me that this is not a plot hole with as contrived an explanation as Jon (or anyone at the Wall, really) deciding we send no envoys because we don't believe anybody will listen is not going to work. Why not just suggest that they all abandon their posts and take a ship to the Summer Isles because they all must know that they essentially stand no chance to defeat the Others on their own.

It is pretty clear that they are all very aware that they have way too few men to hold the Wall when push comes to shove. And from that point of view continuing the civil war is insane. What's the difference between Roose and Ramsay and the Weeper? I'll help you: None. Yet the latter gets a free pass from Jon while his last act was to declare war on Ramsay (and earlier on doing anything he could that Stannis would defeat the Boltons in battle).

The idea that the Boltons are less trustworthy than the Weeper (or any other cruel wildling chieftain) is insane and completely unjustified. Roose is a rational and calculating man. Many willdings might not be. Jon didn't even know most of the people who came through that gate, right? The idea that a decent percentage among those care as much about the brats they handed to him as hostages as Roose cares about Ramsay is not far-fetched at all. Those are all hard men, and the loss of family members should be very common every winter.

The thing is, which the wars cooling down at the end of ASoS there would have been a great opportunity to warn Westeros about the threat the Others pose. George earlier on found great ways how/why people ignore that threat but he really dropped the ball in AFfC and ADwD. Even if people in the end decide not to listen - they should have heard the stories coming from the Wall only to dismiss them as superstition, fairy-tales, lies, etc. But nobody hears any of those stories. And that simply is a plot hole.

I never said that. Jon did not send envoys for two reasons, I would assume. One. He was busy, or did you not read aDwD? He was doing a lot of planning and preparing a lot of things. According to the what GRRM has written it sounds like he was was working constantly through the day and even barely slept. Two. Jon Snow had a grudge against the Boltons. I never suggested Jon did not think the Boltons would listen, simply that he did not even consider asking for their help. He felt sickened asking the Iron Throne for help and only sent the letter at Maester Aemon and Sam's insistence. Considering he thinks the Boltons are forcing his beloved sister to marry the monster that is Ramsey, not only do I not think it is a stretch he would not send for aid, I think it is written purposely that way to show Jon's flaws. As far as why someone else didn't bring it up...well they were too focused on opposing Jon's Free Folk based decisions. Think about it, right now in America, fossil fuels are destroying our ecosystems and will soon cause the destruction of our coastal cities, yet do republicans think about or care about this? No. They want to start a Muslim census, or block immigration. They are so focused on this, they cannot focus on the bigger issues. The reason GRRM writes characters' that seem that stupid is because real people are that stupid! It is not a plot hole, it is how real people act. Oh, and I think they do hear the "fairy tales". It shows that several characters ignore these warnings as nothing important. And you are right, once again, the Weeper is much more horrible than Roose Bolton, but that does not mean Jon just realizes that easily, when Roose Bolton was directly involved his brothers' death. Again, Donald Trump is a million times worse than Hillary Clinton, yet people just voted Trump in. I hope you can see how GRRM's writing mirrors real life.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It certainly doesn't make any sense that Jon would not write a letter in his own hand to send it to Winterfell to Luwin and Bran, and another version to Robb directly (which he would address to Riverrun, or send to Winterfell with the request to send it to whatever castle Robb might stay later on).

We know from Bran's POV that such a letter never reached Winterfell, nor was such a letter forwarded to Robb. And any letter forwarded to Robb would have reached Catelyn at Riverrun not Robb in the field. Yet Catelyn also never received such a letter.

This is certainly George either not thinking things through or George making his character intentionally too stupid to not come up with a simple and obvious solution anybody in their situation would have come up with.

George apparently tries to divert our attention from that fact with the whole Alliser Thorne envoy job but that's simply not enough. Mormont and his officers annoyed Tyrion continuously with their pleas for help yet they never thought about using Jon's connection to Winterfell to spread the tale about the wights? That just doesn't make any sense.

The difference there is that many characters make realistic mistakes based on bad/insufficient information, fear, or other reasons. But this is just not one of them. This is people being dumb for no good reason.

People are this dumb. It happens. You have much more faith in humanity than I do. Rodrigo Duturte, Park Guen-hye, Donald Trump...all elected by rational human beings supposedly. 

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

On 12/3/2016 at 6:21 PM, The Sleeper said:

What is the alien concept and contrived notion? People failing to act in their own best interest because of personal preoccupations and enmities? Or other people ignoring a situation until it bites them in the ass?

Roose and the rest of the northern lords are aware of the situation at the Wall. It is impossible that they aren't. It is just not their immediate concern yet. And to be fair they have more immediate problems. Jon knows he is not supposed to take sides. He hates the Lannisters and the Boltons. It is visceral not rational. The difference between the Weeper and Ramsay is that the former has not hurt Jon's family. It is part of his arc that he is asking from others what he is not willing to even consider for himself.

Spot on! Wish I could give your comments a like.

[Lord Varys]

54 minutes ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

I never said that. Jon did not send envoys for two reasons, I would assume. One. He was busy, or did you not read aDwD? He was doing a lot of planning and preparing a lot of things.

Jon has enough time to spend hours on the practice yard each day, and he essentially does nothing when the first snow storm hits Castle Black (just before Jon goes out with the new recruits to weirwood grove where he then finds the wildling survivors).

In addition, what the hell is the stuff he is doing? Preparing the Wall for the war against the Others, right? Now, wouldn't it then cross his mind to try to inform the people he protecting (i.e. the realms of Men) about the threat they are in?

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to realize this. It is evidently obvious.

54 minutes ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

According to the what GRRM has written it sounds like he was was working constantly through the day and even barely slept. Two. Jon Snow had a grudge against the Boltons.

We are not only talking about the Boltons. Jon also thinks about buying food in the Vale in the future. Why not also ask them for help and inform them about the threat the Seven Kingdoms face? There is no war in the Vale, after all. Why not send an envoy to Lord Robert Arryn?

And no, Jon does not have a grudge against the Boltons. He doesn't think or condemn Roose all that much. He is only sickened later on when he receives Ramsay's letter and learns that the man is going to marry Arya. Jon Snow does not know that Roose murdered Robb.

54 minutes ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

I never suggested Jon did not think the Boltons would listen, simply that he did not even consider asking for their help. He felt sickened asking the Iron Throne for help and only sent the letter at Maester Aemon and Sam's insistence.

That wasn't a letter begging for help. It was a paper shield, trying preserve their neutrality. There is nothing in that letter that is trying to convince Tommen/Cersei/Tywin that the Others and the wights truly exist.

54 minutes ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

Considering he thinks the Boltons are forcing his beloved sister to marry the monster that is Ramsey, not only do I not think it is a stretch he would not send for aid, I think it is written purposely that way to show Jon's flaws. As far as why someone else didn't bring it up...well they were too focused on opposing Jon's Free Folk based decisions.

Again, Jon and the others don't have that information in the beginning of the book.

54 minutes ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

Think about it, right now in America, fossil fuels are destroying our ecosystems and will soon cause the destruction of our coastal cities, yet do republicans think about or care about this? No. They want to start a Muslim census, or block immigration. They are so focused on this, they cannot focus on the bigger issues.

That is not a good comparison. The American people voting for Trump are clearly more stupid and less educated than the elite of Westeros, including the elite at the Wall. Thus this is a faulty comparison.

In addition, we are not talking about 'home-schfooled' morons who think the world is only 6,000 years, and who don't even know what science is, we are talking about people who have actually seen the Others and the wights. This is a huge difference.

54 minutes ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

The reason GRRM writes characters' that seem that stupid is because real people are that stupid! It is not a plot hole, it is how real people act. Oh, and I think they do hear the "fairy tales". It shows that several characters ignore these warnings as nothing important.

The problem that this kind of stupidity doesn't come up. Jon never decides not to send envoys or make use of the many wildlings as witnesses because he concludes that nobody isn't going to believe him. It just never comes up. And if this wasn't a plot hole or bad writing it would have come up.

I mean, why not send Val on a grand tour of the Realm telling the tale of the Others and wights with some other believable/charismatic people. They would not have to go to KL but they could have gone to White Harbor, Gulltown, the Stormlands, Dorne, and Oldtown.

54 minutes ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

And you are right, once again, the Weeper is much more horrible than Roose Bolton, but that does not mean Jon just realizes that easily, when Roose Bolton was directly involved his brothers' death. Again, Donald Trump is a million times worse than Hillary Clinton, yet people just voted Trump in. I hope you can see how GRRM's writing mirrors real life.

Again, Jon Snow is some stupid moron voting for the funny guy you know from TV, expecting that the rich guy's kid is going to champion the cause of common workman. He is part of the ruling class. Jon Snow is Trump, he is not voting for him. He got a decent education alongside his siblings, and while he really loathes the Lannisters and the Boltons (once he learns of Arya and guesses they must have had a hand in the Red Wedding) he does not allow that interfere with his politics. At least not at first. And we are not talking about why he fell for Ramsay's provocation and got killed, we are wondering why neither he nor anybody else did not try to prevent that civil war between Stannis and the Boltons. Nor why nobody even tried to really convince the people farther down south what was actually going on.

Guess what, if letters aren't enough you should perhaps send an envoy or go yourself. That's the case in the real world, too. If nobody picks up the phone or answers your (e)mails then you should perhaps just visit the person you want to contact.

[Amris]

Lord Varys:

First we don't know that the Boltons have not received any requests for aid by the Night's Watch. In fact I think your assumption is probably wrong. Throughout the books we get told that the Nights Watch desperately is asking all the Lords for help and no one is interested (except Stannis). This whole 'plot hole' you discuss is made up by you in the first place.

Secondly the notion that Stannis and Roose Bolton might ally in any conceivable situation (short of standing directly in front of a attacking White Walker army - and they are definitely not standing in front of a White Walker army atm) is frankly ridiculous. We seem to have been reading different books.

And finally I remind you that the Battle of Hardhome has not happened in the books. The case for the White Walker threat is far less clear-cut in the books than in the film series. The Walkers have not attacked The Wall at all. The wildlings have. It is not hard to see how a house which has just overthrown a very old dynasty and not yet really secured their usurped position (the Boltons) find their immediate troubles more important than hearsay about magical zombies in small numbers far beyond the wall. 

[Lord Varys]

6 minutes ago, Amris said:

Lord Varys:

First we don't know that the Boltons have not received any requests for aid by the Night's Watch. In fact I think your assumption is probably wrong. Throughout the books we get told that the Nights Watch desperately is asking all the Lords for help and no one is interested (except Stannis). This whole 'plot hole' you discuss is made up by you in the first place.

If you read the books then those letters probably did not include details on the attacks of the wights. Sam did not send any letters from the Fist, after all, and the threat they wanted help to fight off were Mance's wildlings, not the Others.

But once Jon, Mance, Stannis, Sam, and the other survivors of the Fist and Craster's were actually back at Castle Black there was more than enough to write new detailed letters about the actual threat they are facing or sending out envoys who actually saw Others and wights and can testify to this in conversation with Roose and other lords.

6 minutes ago, Amris said:

Secondly the notion that Stannis and Roose Bolton might ally in any conceivable situation (short of standing directly in front of a attacking White Walker army - and they are definitely not standing in front of a White Walker army atm) is frankly ridiculous. We seem to have been reading different books.

What issue does Stannis personally have with Roose Bolton? None, pretty much. Roose actually killed the false king and traitor, Robb Stark, Stannis himself declared he would eventually take out to Catelyn's face in ACoK. Roose wasn't Stannis' rival, he just was the new Warden of the North. Once the news about Tywin's death reached the North Stannis and Roose could actually have found an understanding - and the real threat could have been a powerful incentive to reach such an understanding, especially on Stannis' side.

6 minutes ago, Amris said:

And finally I remind you that the Battle of Hardhome has not happened in the books. The case for the White Walker threat is far less clear-cut in the books than in the film series. The Walkers have not attacked The Wall at all. The wildlings have. It is not hard to see how a house which has just overthrown a very old dynasty and not yet really secured their usurped position (the Boltons) find their immediate troubles more important than hearsay about magical zombies in small numbers far beyond the wall. 

Sure, but is anybody even trying to tell the Boltons about those threats? Not in ADwD, that much is obvious.

[Free Northman Reborn]

3 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If you read the books then those letters probably did not include details on the attacks of the wights. Sam did not send any letters from the Fist, after all, and the threat they wanted help to fight off were Mance's wildlings, not the Others.

But once Jon, Mance, Stannis, Sam, and the other survivors of the Fist and Craster's were actually back at Castle Black there was more than enough to write new detailed letters about the actual threat they are facing or sending out envoys who actually saw Others and wights and can testify to this in conversation with Roose and other lords.

What issue does Stannis personally have with Roose Bolton? None, pretty much. Roose actually killed the false king and traitor, Robb Stark, Stannis himself declared he would eventually take out to Catelyn's face in ACoK. Roose wasn't Stannis' rival, he just was the new Warden of the North. Once the news about Tywin's death reached the North Stannis and Roose could actually have found an understanding - and the real threat could have been a powerful incentive to reach such an understanding, especially on Stannis' side.

Sure, but is anybody even trying to tell the Boltons about those threats? Not in ADwD, that much is obvious.

If I understand you correctly, you are not criticizing Jon or any particular individual for the (supposed) lack of communication. Instead, you are criticizing Martin for not presenting the situation realistically.

So what it comes down to is that Martin's goal is to have the Boltons set up as antagonists for the duration of their continued existence, and wants Jon to be set up as the one who sees the real enemy. And therefore he wants the conflict to play out as Jon being on the side of "right', and the Boltons being on the side of "wrong". For that to be the case, he needs Jon to see and pursue the higher cause, while the Boltons don't.

If the Boltons were to suddenly become the protectors of the North against the Others, it would upset Martin's desired plot path.

So I guess your fight is with Martin, in that you don't believe he crafted the plot cleverly enough to bring about these developments believably.

[Lord Varys]

12 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So I guess your fight is with Martin, in that you don't believe he crafted the plot cleverly enough to bring about these developments believably.

Yeah, it is bad writing to create antagonists who don't even get the chance to decide whether they want to antagonists. I mean, we get a little bit of insight into the Bolton alliance in Theon's chapters at Barrowton and Winterfell. Do the Others/wights come up even once? No. Surely people who have talked about this if many lords had received such letters from the NW over and over again, if only to dismiss them as lies/fairy-tales, etc.

They don't even discuss the fact that Stannis defeated Mance Rayder and his wildlings and thus actually saved their asses. The North most definitely wouldn't have been able to properly deal with 100,000 refugees in the coming winter. 

I'm not saying the Boltons should team up with Jon/Stannis (although it would have been an interesting twist) I'm saying George should have addressed this problem and then included a reason why the Boltons would not want to submit to Stannis, etc.

This could have worked fine - Roose dismissing the stories as fairy-tales/lies, Roose declaring that Stannis could not be trusted due to his tendency never to forgive anything, etc. But we don't get any of that sort. Roose and Ramsay don't even have the chance to understand the threat the Others pose to them all because nobody tries to tell them.

Stannis and Jon could also have decided to not try to talk to Roose at all - because they hate him and want him dead (would have been a stupid way to do it but it could have worked if it was in the story) - the problem is just that the way they deal with their knowledge about the true enemy of mankind - and Stannis and Jon both think and talk about the true enemy and the eventual war to come - just doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

[Free Northman Reborn]

10 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, it is bad writing to create antagonists who don't even get the chance to decide whether they want to antagonists. I mean, we get a little bit of insight into the Bolton alliance in Theon's chapters at Barrowton and Winterfell. Do the Others/wights come up even once? No. Surely people who have talked about this if many lords had received such letters from the NW over and over again, if only to dismiss them as lies/fairy-tales, etc.

They don't even discuss the fact that Stannis defeated Mance Rayder and his wildlings and thus actually saved their asses. The North most definitely wouldn't have been able to properly deal with 100,000 refugees in the coming winter. 

I'm not saying the Boltons should team up with Jon/Stannis (although it would have been an interesting twist) I'm saying George should have addressed this problem and then included a reason why the Boltons would not want to submit to Stannis, etc.

This could have worked fine - Roose dismissing the stories as fairy-tales/lies, Roose declaring that Stannis could not be trusted due to his tendency never to forgive anything, etc. But we don't get any of that sort. Roose and Ramsay don't even have the chance to understand the threat the Others pose to them all because nobody tries to tell them.

Stannis and Jon could also have decided to not try to talk to Roose at all - because they hate him and want him dead (would have been a stupid way to do it but it could have worked if it was in the story) - the problem is just that the way they deal with their knowledge about the true enemy of mankind - and Stannis and Jon both think and talk about the true enemy and the eventual war to come - just doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

Well, consider that the Stannis/Jon interaction at the Wall was originally intended to last through the 5 year gap, so Roose would have needed to stay out of the way for at least that long. I come back to the Wex Pyke-issue, which appears to be an example of forcing the plot in a certain way, at least to me. These things do occur in ASOIAF, yes. I don't have a problem acknowledging that. I must admit though, the Jon/Roose issue is not such a glaring example of this in my view. In fact, I think it is more a case of so much shit going down in the North that fairy tales from the Wall are way down the priority list. After the wight hand was laughed at in Kings  Landing, and the raven messages requesting help was ignored, it seems they kind of got the idea that they are on their own up at the Wall.

Also, with Stannis there, Jon seems to have sub-consciously decided that appealing to any other "kings" or their wardens is likely not a good idea. It appears to have been Stannis or nobody.

In any case, I don't dismiss Roose Bolton still teaming up with Jon. That would be the type of bittersweet, unwelcome yet forced alliance that Martin likes to dream up. I would not discount the possibility that Roose throws Ramsay under the bus and offers his Bolton troops to Winterfell once he sees the writing is on the Wall. Effectively submitting again like the Boltons have done so many times in the past after a failed rebellion.

And given the dire situation Jon/Bran/Rickon might just be forced to grudgingly accept 3000 Bolton troops and Roose as a vassal, rather than lose more men squabbling to rule the North. I'm not saying it will play out this way, but it would certainly be an interesting twist to have a repeat of Theon Stark having a "Pink Pavillion" Clegane type Bolton Dog of War in his service.

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

Lord Varys, 

We disagree on practically every point, but I do not think either of us will moveeach other on this argument. I think it was good writing, you think poor, so I will bow out of this little fude. I see this is the beginning of a back and forth with no solution, and unlike most of my opponents on here, I respect your ability to back up your arguments. Again, when two logical people disagree on the most basic part of an argument, its difficult to ever come to an agreement. And since we are not discussing anything massively important here like racism, war, or the environment (in real life, not book), I think it is best to just say repectively, 'Can we just agree to disagree?'

[Lord Varys]

26 minutes ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

Lord Varys, 

We disagree on practically every point, but I do not think either of us will moveeach other on this argument. I think it was good writing, you think poor, so I will bow out of this little fude. I see this is the beginning of a back and forth with no solution, and unlike most of my opponents on here, I respect your ability to back up your arguments. Again, when two logical people disagree on the most basic part of an argument, its difficult to ever come to an agreement. And since we are not discussing anything massively important here like racism, war, or the environment (in real life, not book), I think it is best to just say repectively, 'Can we just agree to disagree?'

Of course. I like the books despite that whole thing as should be obvious.

But I've been thinking right now about the Gared thing in the beginning and the later talk that must have happened between Ned and Benjen. Does it make really a lot of sense that these guys never correctly guessed what this was all about? Bran doesn't remember what Gared said yet Ned clearly would have, actually questioning the man.

I just find that the overall portrayal of the real threat and people ignoring it could have been done much better.

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well, consider that the Stannis/Jon interaction at the Wall was originally intended to last through the 5 year gap, so Roose would have needed to stay out of the way for at least that long.

One assumes George rewrote all that when he scrapped the gap.

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I come back to the Wex Pyke-issue, which appears to be an example of forcing the plot in a certain way, at least to me.

I've thought a little bit about that and I think George can still salvage this whole thing. Wex is mute and might not have been able to tell everything he knows nor is it necessary for us to believe he wanted to tell them everything he knows. It is not impossible that Osha actually captured him (and he did not reveal that to Wyman and Robett) and took him along to whatever smuggler's port or hidden harbor from which they left for Skagos.

And we also don't know how the hell Wex got to White Harbor or why he went there. Did Osha sent him there because she wanted him to contact Robb and Catelyn and inform them about what had transpired at Winterfell? I mean, back then they were still alive and if Wex had spent some time with Osha she might have started to trust him, not to mention his obvious inability to blurt out his knowledge to the wrong people.

With Theon's men all being butchered by Ramsay it is not very difficult to assume that Wex would rat them out to the Boltons.

The idea that Glover or Manderly men just chanced on Wex and weren't sought out by him makes little sense. After all, they would have had no means to realize what he had witnessed without him trying to make them understand first.

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

These things do occur in ASOIAF, yes. I don't have a problem acknowledging that. I must admit though, the Jon/Roose issue is not such a glaring example of this in my view. In fact, I think it is more a case of so much shit going down in the North that fairy tales from the Wall are way down the priority list. After the wight hand was laughed at in Kings  Landing, and the raven messages requesting help was ignored, it seems they kind of got the idea that they are on their own up at the Wall.

But the Northmen are friends of the NW and have no idea that Thorne was laughed at in KL. I see simply no conceivable reason why Jon and Stannis should not write letters detailing the dangers they are all facing to as many (Northern) lords as possible. They need help, do they not?

The Boltons are just one of them. If they felt they could not go through Roose why not address letters/send envoys to his allies?

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Also, with Stannis there, Jon seems to have sub-consciously decided that appealing to any other "kings" or their wardens is likely not a good idea. It appears to have been Stannis or nobody.

We are not talking about kings (although sending additional letters to KL would also have been a good idea) we are talking about all the lords in the Realm.

3 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

In any case, I don't dismiss Roose Bolton still teaming up with Jon. That would be the type of bittersweet, unwelcome yet forced alliance that Martin likes to dream up. I would not discount the possibility that Roose throws Ramsay under the bus and offers his Bolton troops to Winterfell once he sees the writing is on the Wall. Effectively submitting again like the Boltons have done so many times in the past after a failed rebellion.

And given the dire situation Jon/Bran/Rickon might just be forced to grudgingly accept 3000 Bolton troops and Roose as a vassal, rather than lose more men squabbling to rule the North. I'm not saying it will play out this way, but it would certainly be an interesting twist to have a repeat of Theon Stark having a "Pink Pavillion" Clegane type Bolton Dog of War in his service.

I don't think that has a chance of happening after the Pink Letter and the clansmen committment to bathe in Bolton blood before they die. Things are set now, and there is little chance that they resolve the whole thing peacefully thanks to some stalemate thing that draws out.

Effectively, Stannis or his allies at the village right now have to defeat the Boltons. If they don't take Winterfell then they should all die in the snow sooner or later. They have no provisions, and the gang at the Wall is out of trained and prepared men. The wildlings cannot storm or besiege a castle - not without proper training, siege engines, and ample provisions.

I could see Roose escaping the whole thing if he cuts his way out and retreats to the Dreadfort with his most trusted men. But if he did that he would essentially become a non-factor militarily.

[Bironic]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But the Northmen are friends of the NW and have no idea that Thorne was laughed at in KL. I see simply no conceivable reason why Jon and Stannis should not write letters detailing the dangers they are all facing to as many (Northern) lords as possible. They need help, do they not?

Just for playing the advocatus diaboli, but do the northmen care that much about the NW? Not one of the northern lords sent men to the NW when Mance attacked the Wall, the mountain clans sent a few men after Stannis visited them. And some of the more "southern" lords in the north don't suffer from wildling raids as the northern Mountain clans or the Umbers do. So they have even less reason to support the NW. The support of the NW in the north seems to boil down to food and this only in summer.

I like the idea of the Jon Snow & Stannis - Bolton alliance as well.

Points why it didn't happen: (other than GRRM's will of course)

1. Stannis dislikes traitors and Roose knows that, Roose has supported the wrong king at least twice: first because he supported Robb, second because he switched to Joffrey and later Tommen.

2. Roose is married to a Frey, the Freys are despised in the North and the Riverlands, as soon as Stannis joins an alliance with them some rivermen and northmen will abandon him.

3.Stannis has the habit of punishing past crimes while rewarding good deeds, so he probably would reward Roose for killing the usurper Robb and then proceed to execute him for violating guest right...

4. Roose could fear that Stannis legitimizes Jon Snow if he doesn't follow his orders, something Tywin or Cersei would never do.

5. Roose thinks that Stannis has lost the war at the Blackwater, why should he join another doomed pretender?

6. Roose could think that the Lannister-Tyrell-Baratheon of KL-Frey-Martell-Baelish-Arryn alliance is too strong to overcome.

7. There are rumors about Ramsay in the north, why should Stannis make common cause with such a man? (also he would probably punish Ramsay for some of his crimes at the very least)

8. the Boltons fear that some of the Stark kids have survived, the Lannisters wouldn't mind if they kill them, Jon Snow, the other northmen or Stannis might.

 

[John Suburbs]

On ‎12‎/‎1‎/‎2016 at 10:14 PM, Jadakiss said:

Yes stannis seems to be the only one who knows about the real threat and cares about the real threat. He makes comments that humans are only making themselves weaker for when the real fight comes. Roose is a dick, but he is not stupid in big matters. He is still alive in a powerful position for a reason.

Yes I know ravens were sent out everywhere. But why has there not been anyone who went and talked to Roose and provided the same evidence they showed to other people about the wights? Him and stannis wouldnt be dumb enough to fight each other first before the living vs dead battle.

Has there been any section where someone goes and tries to persuade roose? or even explain the situation? if so I cant find it

The wights are Roose's allies. Roose is the last surviving son of the Nights King, which makes him half-Other. He survives by fathering children on human wives, then, when they come of age, he kills them, dons their skins and assumes their identity as the new lord of whatever castle he happens to be occupying.

Ramsey is next: watch for Roose to die and then Rams will suddenly calm down, become more thoughtful, start speaking in whispers, leeching himself...

[aryagonnakill#2]

@Lord Varys Perhaps Jon did not send letters/emissaries to the Boltons because he knew they would not send any help until after Stannis was defeated(If ever), and that if Stannis won he would definitely send help.  So he could have simply been waiting for that conflict to play out.  I think realistically he would be right under this assumption.  No help would be sent with an army at their doorstep.

[The Drunkard]

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But the Northmen are friends of the NW and have no idea that Thorne was laughed at in KL. I see simply no conceivable reason why Jon and Stannis should not write letters detailing the dangers they are all facing to as many (Northern) lords as possible. They need help, do they not?

The Boltons are just one of them. If they felt they could not go through Roose why not address letters/send envoys to his allies?

Stannis never seems to discuss the Others with his men, either. He talks about it with Mel, Davos, Jon and the NW leaders, people who know about the threat or whom he trusts to believe him, but whenever he's in a war council (whether it be solely southerners or with the northmen as well) the discussions stay purely on mundane matters. I get the impression he doesn't trust people to take it seriously, and instead thinks he'll only win them over by appealing to their desire for revenge/justice/safety.

[devilish]

The reasons are basically 2

a- Roose doesn't trust Robb and Robb doesn't trust Roose. You can keep on repeating that Roose would never hurt a LC of the NW and that a LC of the NW would never hurt a Warden of the North until forever. That means nothing. Roose is a turncoat who betrayed Jon's half brother. Jon is a bastard who lost most of his family thanks to Roose. Roose have learnt/experienced enough bastards to know not to trust them (medieval people are very suspicious and bastards have a negative stigma trust upon them). No one likes to watch his back while fighting

b- Any bannermen going to the rescue would be potrayed as a Stark Loyalist (since Jon has Stark blood). Sure, Roose won't march his armies against them because they did that. That would make him look bad. However once he consolidated his grip over the North he will search for any tiny excuse to march their armies against them and have them flayed. Better safe then sorry kind of thing.

[Lord Varys]

16 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The wights are Roose's allies. Roose is the last surviving son of the Nights King, which makes him half-Other. He survives by fathering children on human wives, then, when they come of age, he kills them, dons their skins and assumes their identity as the new lord of whatever castle he happens to be occupying.

Ramsey is next: watch for Roose to die and then Rams will suddenly calm down, become more thoughtful, start speaking in whispers, leeching himself...

And I thought that was the modus operandi of Ephraim Waite.

18 hours ago, Bironic said:

Just for playing the advocatus diaboli, but do the northmen care that much about the NW? Not one of the northern lords sent men to the NW when Mance attacked the Wall, the mountain clans sent a few men after Stannis visited them. And some of the more "southern" lords in the north don't suffer from wildling raids as the northern Mountain clans or the Umbers do. So they have even less reason to support the NW. The support of the NW in the north seems to boil down to food and this only in summer.

It is true that they didn't send a single man to defend the Wall against the wildlings but that whole thing should be the reason why many of them should now actually look favorably on Stannis who essentially saved their asses. Now they don't have to fight off 100,000 refugees trying to steal their winter provisions.

The Northmen are willing to send men to Winterfell and Barrowton now, when they had none for the NW. That is very odd indeed.

18 hours ago, Bironic said:

1. Stannis dislikes traitors and Roose knows that, Roose has supported the wrong king at least twice: first because he supported Robb, second because he switched to Joffrey and later Tommen.

Sure, but Stannis also forgave a lot of the followers of Renly. If Roose finally saw the light and declared for Stannis after he had taken out the pretender Robb he should be welcome. In addition, Roose doesn't really know Stannis. There is no reason to believe he ever met the man.

18 hours ago, Bironic said:

2. Roose is married to a Frey, the Freys are despised in the North and the Riverlands, as soon as Stannis joins an alliance with them some rivermen and northmen will abandon him.

That is pretty good reason why things could get difficult, yes.

18 hours ago, Bironic said:

3.Stannis has the habit of punishing past crimes while rewarding good deeds, so he probably would reward Roose for killing the usurper Robb and then proceed to execute him for violating guest right...

Roose never violated guest right. Lord Walder did. And Stannis is not necessarily aware of (or can prove) that Roose had a hand in the Red Wedding. Couldn't they spin a tale making Roose a victim of Frey treason? The Lannisters and Freys conspired to murder Robb and Roose was caught alive defending his king and later had to accept to become the new Warden of the North in the name King Tommen to save his life.

18 hours ago, Bironic said:

4. Roose could fear that Stannis legitimizes Jon Snow if he doesn't follow his orders, something Tywin or Cersei would never do.

Roose has no reason to fear Jon Snow.

18 hours ago, Bironic said:

5. Roose thinks that Stannis has lost the war at the Blackwater, why should he join another doomed pretender?

Because things have changed now? Tywin Lannister is dead, after all.

18 hours ago, Bironic said:

6. Roose could think that the Lannister-Tyrell-Baratheon of KL-Frey-Martell-Baelish-Arryn alliance is too strong to overcome.

Barbrey Dustin thinks Roose will take another round on the secessionist thing. That would also mean another conflict with the Iron Throne.

18 hours ago, Bironic said:

7. There are rumors about Ramsay in the north, why should Stannis make common cause with such a man? (also he would probably punish Ramsay for some of his crimes at the very least)

That is a good point.

18 hours ago, Bironic said:

8. the Boltons fear that some of the Stark kids have survived, the Lannisters wouldn't mind if they kill them, Jon Snow, the other northmen or Stannis might.

That's another good reason. There are certainly reasons why Roose wouldn't want to work with either Stannis or Jon but the whole wight/Others thing should put things into a different perspective, basically. And the opportunity to try this isn't even brought up by anyone.

13 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

@Lord Varys Perhaps Jon did not send letters/emissaries to the Boltons because he knew they would not send any help until after Stannis was defeated(If ever), and that if Stannis won he would definitely send help.  So he could have simply been waiting for that conflict to play out.  I think realistically he would be right under this assumption.  No help would be sent with an army at their doorstep.

The idea is that Jon and Stannis would do that together. Jon wouldn't have been able to do it against Stannis' will.

3 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

Stannis never seems to discuss the Others with his men, either. He talks about it with Mel, Davos, Jon and the NW leaders, people who know about the threat or whom he trusts to believe him, but whenever he's in a war council (whether it be solely southerners or with the northmen as well) the discussions stay purely on mundane matters. I get the impression he doesn't trust people to take it seriously, and instead thinks he'll only win them over by appealing to their desire for revenge/justice/safety.

That is an interesting point. But then, the survivors of the Fist saw the wights and the Others. They know what the whole thing is about, and the wildlings all know it, too. It should have had an impact on things.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

I was under the impression that Jon was still calling for support from other houses. At the very least we know he wrote to the Iron Throne asking for help (which Cersei understandably thought was a bit presumptuous).

We don’t really know what letters Jon wrote to who, but throughout the series the pattern seems to be: Night’s Watch have a problem – Night’s Watch writes to everyone asking for help – Night’s Watch’s letters are thrown in the bin. I think actually it’s become routine. My impression is that a Lord Commander spends about 50% of his working day writing letters to people asking for help. We don’t see that in the later books (except in Kings Landing), but I think it’s still going on.

Stannis not burying the hatchet with Roose is more easily explained. It would go against Stannis’s character to give an inch. All the letters he sends to the North are demanding allegiance, not offering alliances. His attitude is simple – he is the King, anyone who denies it is a traitor and deserves death. He would also consider Roose worse even than your average traitor, due to his involvement in the Red Wedding.

Roose, on the other hand, knows this to be the case with Stannis, and therefore would know that no accord could be reached. Stannis is a dangerous opponent who must be dealt with. He is clever and pragmatic, but even if he has a good knowledge of the threat of the Others, I think he would still think that Job 1 is to consolidate his power in the North.

I tend to agree that the another reason Jon does not try very hard to win Roose is that he really hasn’t shaken off the hatred of the man who was responsible for the Red Wedding and who are now working with his father’s killers. He might dutifully write a letter to Winterfell/Dreadfort/Iron Throne, but I think he knows a) they won’t listen, they won’t trust him because he’s Ned’s bastard, and c) they won’t forgive him sheltering Stannis (Jon acknowledges this to Sam). Given all that, there’s probably a big part of him that doesn’t want to work with them anyway, and therefore he’s not going to bend over backwards.

All that being said, it could be a plot hole, but one that GRRM can easily fill. I think the same about the Wex thing. Often an author will leave a lot of things up in the air, and return to clear them up later when he gets the opportunity. (By-the-by, I think the Wex hole is so huge that GRRM has every intention of returning to it to give us an explanation, but a full blown account either wouldn’t have fit the pace of that chapter, or he hadn’t quite worked it out yet).

[Bironic]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Roose never violated guest right. Lord Walder did. And Stannis is not necessarily aware of (or can prove) that Roose had a hand in the Red Wedding. Couldn't they spin a tale making Roose a victim of Frey treason? The Lannisters and Freys conspired to murder Robb and Roose was caught alive defending his king and later had to accept to become the new Warden of the North in the name King Tommen to save his life.

Roose has no reason to fear Jon Snow.

Because things have changed now? Tywin Lannister is dead, after all.

It's true that lord walder violated guest right, but roose bolton was present there as well and helped him. Well Stannis thinks that the RW was orchestrated by freys and lannisters and he is intelligent enough to see that roose bolton got the position of warden and the legitimacy of his bastard son for some deed he did for the lannisters.

He has no reason to fear jon snow, but jon stark is another matter. Stannis could do that, cersei or tywin wouldn't.

Yes he is dead but many of the alliances he and tyrion made are still intact early in ADWD. The wall is the last to know, so the news of tywins death and cerseis misrule reached them with considerable timelap. By the time roose or stannis knew it might have been to late.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Barbrey Dustin thinks Roose will take another round on the secessionist thing. That would also mean another conflict with the Iron Throne.

 

To secede from a weak IT is something different than actually fight for it. Which would happen if Roose joins Stannis. It's easier to defend an independent north than conquer the south.

[Bironic]

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is true that they didn't send a single man to defend the Wall against the wildlings but that whole thing should be the reason why many of them should now actually look favorably on Stannis who essentially saved their asses. Now they don't have to fight off 100,000 refugees trying to steal their winter provisions.

The Northmen are willing to send men to Winterfell and Barrowton now, when they had none for the NW. That is very odd indeed.

Sure, but Stannis also forgave a lot of the followers of Renly. If Roose finally saw the light and declared for Stannis after he had taken out the pretender Robb he should be welcome. In addition, Roose doesn't really know Stannis. There is no reason to believe he ever met the man.

Stannis & Jon snow are actually letting the wildlings into the north. They aren't 100'000 anymore but still several thousands.

Yes he forgave them, but I am not convinced if he would forgive them again after the blackwater. Those guys have supported first renly, afterwards him. A single treason. Roose "betrayed" stannis twice, by declaring for robb and later joffrey. Also none of Renlys supporters were part of a crime as horrible as the RW.