Why haven't the Boltons been told about the Wights?

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

Ned was a reasonable guy yet he didn't believe it when he was told. It's not the sort of thing you'd believe without seeing. If Jon told Ned, Ned would probably listen, but I agree, if he tells Roose it's dismissed out of hand as a trick. It's the equivalent of being told by someone you've severely wronged, Hey go grab your guns let's go fight a ghost. 

[Lord Varys]

On 6.12.2016 at 4:15 PM, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I was under the impression that Jon was still calling for support from other houses. At the very least we know he wrote to the Iron Throne asking for help (which Cersei understandably thought was a bit presumptuous).

We don’t really know what letters Jon wrote to who, but throughout the series the pattern seems to be: Night’s Watch have a problem – Night’s Watch writes to everyone asking for help – Night’s Watch’s letters are thrown in the bin. I think actually it’s become routine. My impression is that a Lord Commander spends about 50% of his working day writing letters to people asking for help. We don’t see that in the later books (except in Kings Landing), but I think it’s still going on.

We have no reason to believe Jon wrote letters that are not mentioned. That is my whole point. He wrote one letter to King Tommen, and that's it. Assuming he wrote other letters to other lords or kings isn't evidence. I think such letters would have been important enough to warrant being mentioned in the story. We got an entire chapter on the storerooms of the NW in ADwD, after all.

On 6.12.2016 at 4:15 PM, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Stannis not burying the hatchet with Roose is more easily explained. It would go against Stannis’s character to give an inch. All the letters he sends to the North are demanding allegiance, not offering alliances. His attitude is simple – he is the King, anyone who denies it is a traitor and deserves death. He would also consider Roose worse even than your average traitor, due to his involvement in the Red Wedding.

That is possible yet that just means that Stannis is a moron. Jon could have been the guy to tell Stannis 'Well, Your Grace, we actually need every help we can get in our fight against the ice demons. Perhaps a more diplomatic approach would be wiser...?'

On 6.12.2016 at 4:15 PM, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Roose, on the other hand, knows this to be the case with Stannis, and therefore would know that no accord could be reached. Stannis is a dangerous opponent who must be dealt with. He is clever and pragmatic, but even if he has a good knowledge of the threat of the Others, I think he would still think that Job 1 is to consolidate his power in the North.

I'm not be convinced by that. If Roose actually knew what kind of threat the Others were defeating/surviving them would become much more important than defeating Stannis or staying in charge in the North.

On 6.12.2016 at 4:15 PM, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I tend to agree that the another reason Jon does not try very hard to win Roose is that he really hasn’t shaken off the hatred of the man who was responsible for the Red Wedding and who are now working with his father’s killers. He might dutifully write a letter to Winterfell/Dreadfort/Iron Throne, but I think he knows a) they won’t listen, they won’t trust him because he’s Ned’s bastard, and c) they won’t forgive him sheltering Stannis (Jon acknowledges this to Sam). Given all that, there’s probably a big part of him that doesn’t want to work with them anyway, and therefore he’s not going to bend over backwards.

That certainly might be true but if it is then it should have been addressed. And the part about Jon knowing stuff about Roose is simply wrong. Jon wasn't at the Twins and he has no idea whatsoever what Roose did or didn't do during the Red Wedding. He can guess, sure, but he can't be sure.

On 6.12.2016 at 4:15 PM, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

All that being said, it could be a plot hole, but one that GRRM can easily fill. I think the same about the Wex thing. Often an author will leave a lot of things up in the air, and return to clear them up later when he gets the opportunity. (By-the-by, I think the Wex hole is so huge that GRRM has every intention of returning to it to give us an explanation, but a full blown account either wouldn’t have fit the pace of that chapter, or he hadn’t quite worked it out yet).

I tried to elaborate a little bit on the Wex thing in an earlier posting here. There are ways to salvage this. I think the best explanation is that Wex actually teamed up with Osha and Rickon for some time. Anything else wouldn't make a lot of sense.

The big mystery still is where the hell they caught a ship to Skagos and how Wex made it to White Harbor. It is pretty obvious he must have presented himself to Wyman or Robett or else neither of them would have realized that he knows stuff.

And I'm pretty sure Wex and Robett Glover will both accompany Davos to Skagos. Possibly even Wylla or Wynafryd Manderly. After all, the Skagosi, Osha, and Rickon need people to explain to them that Davos is a good guy. The idea that Davos alone could fetch Rickon back never made any sense. Lord Wyman needed Davos to captain the ship, not to do the talking with the Skagosi.

On 6.12.2016 at 5:50 PM, Bironic said:

It's true that lord walder violated guest right, but roose bolton was present there as well and helped him. Well Stannis thinks that the RW was orchestrated by freys and lannisters and he is intelligent enough to see that roose bolton got the position of warden and the legitimacy of his bastard son for some deed he did for the lannisters.

Could be. But then, can Stannis be sure Roose was one of the main architects behind the Red Wedding or can he not also believe that Roose just stood aside and allowed Lord Walder to kill Robb? The latter wouldn't be so bad, would it?

On 6.12.2016 at 5:50 PM, Bironic said:

He has no reason to fear jon snow, but jon stark is another matter. Stannis could do that, cersei or tywin wouldn't.

Roose could easily enough challenge the right of Jon to leave the NW. He can be named Jon Stark all day long but honor and law dictate that he never leave the Wall. Roose would have every right to execute Jon as an oathbreaker if he ever left the Wall.

On 6.12.2016 at 5:50 PM, Bironic said:

Yes he is dead but many of the alliances he and tyrion made are still intact early in ADWD. The wall is the last to know, so the news of tywins death and cerseis misrule reached them with considerable timelap. By the time roose or stannis knew it might have been to late.

To secede from a weak IT is something different than actually fight for it. Which would happen if Roose joins Stannis. It's easier to defend an independent north than conquer the south.

Roose could join Stannis just for the Others thing. He could refuse to assist him in any campaign in the South. After all, he doesn't have the men for such an adventure anyway.

On 6.12.2016 at 6:00 PM, Bironic said:

Stannis & Jon snow are actually letting the wildlings into the north. They aren't 100'000 anymore but still several thousands.

Yes he forgave them, but I am not convinced if he would forgive them again after the blackwater. Those guys have supported first renly, afterwards him. A single treason. Roose "betrayed" stannis twice, by declaring for robb and later joffrey. Also none of Renlys supporters were part of a crime as horrible as the RW.

If Stannis hadn't come 100,000 wildings would have passed the Wall, and there certainly were 10,000 or more professional soldiers among them.

Stannis will most likely also pardon those Northmen who fought first for Robb and then for Roose/Tommen. After all, he 

Spoiler

only executes the leading treasonous Karstark, not all the men. 

 

[The North Forgot]

This post made me remember my favourite crackpot, the Bolt-On theory. God I love that theory

[Bironic]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm not be convinced by that. If Roose actually knew what kind of threat the Others were defeating/surviving them would become much more important than defeating Stannis or staying in charge in the North.

One of the problems with the threat of the Others is that only a few men have actually witnessed the threat of the Others. most of these have only seen the wights not the Others. And these men are either wildlings (hated and believed to be unreliable throughout the North) or NW, most of them commoners or criminals. Not exactly the kind of people Roose or the average Lord gives much thought about.

The Others or the Wights have never attacked northern Lords sofar. If Say a Karstark or an Umber goes to Roose and says: I saw how my son got killed by an Other and rose again as a wight, this would probably convince men such as Ned or Roose that they are infact a threat. But as long as they remain on the other side of the wall, only occasionly killing some random wildlings or NW rangers, they're not perceived as a threat.

Look at how hard it is for Jon Snow to convince Bowen Marsh or Othell Yarwick that his policies are right, men who have almost firsthand knowledge of Wights and Others. Imagine how far fetched such a threat is for someone like Roose who lives hundreds of miles south of the wall, has never witnessed the horrors of Wights or Others. Furthermore he has much more pressuring problems at hand, such as Ironborn, disputes between his bannermen, death of his best allies such as Tywin, a marriage for his crazy son, or missing Starks.

[Jadakiss]

On 12/2/2016 at 0:53 PM, devilish said:

Roose knows about oaths but he also knows that young men who hold a grudge can be reckless and dangerous. He is also a man of his time ie he’s superstitious. He probably believes that bastards are born treacherous and dangerous and he can testify to that himself. Ramsey Snow had been trouble for Roose and had probably robbed him from his heir. 

What is protecting both Roose and Jon Snow from skinning one another is the distance between them. Roose is 100% sure that Jon won’t kill him because he can’t march armies to the South without breaking his vows. Jon Snow knows that Roose won’t kill him because he can’t march armies to the Wall without causing a diplomatic scandal of epic proportions. If that boundaries break then Roose can ‘accidently’ kill Jon and Jon can ‘accidently’ kill Roose. After all, battles can be messy and friendly fire is common.

Not to forget that Roose know that Jon Snow can be released from his vows and end up being legitimised if a king wants it. He also knows that Robb Stark died as a king which makes his heirs king. It only takes 1 king or queen to declare Jon Snow free from his vows and a Stark (Stannis, Sansa, Faegon, Danny or even an older Sweet Robin who decides to revenge his family by declaring the Vale independent) to cause havoc in the North.  If Jon Snow is wise enough to win back Lannister’s support he might well end up becoming their own nuke option against Roose if the Bolton decide to stop playing to the crown’s tune.
So as a resume Jon Snow can’t trust Roose because he’s a turncoat and a usurper who already broke his vows. Roose can’t trust Jon because he’s a bastard, who got Stark’s blood in him and who have every motive to stick his sword inside his throat. 
 

 

If there was a battle roose would be nowhere near jon, nowhere near the battle. he would be safe in WF with a garrison of guards

[Bironic]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

That certainly might be true but if it is then it should have been addressed. And the part about Jon knowing stuff about Roose is simply wrong. Jon wasn't at the Twins and he has no idea whatsoever what Roose did or didn't do during the Red Wedding. He can guess, sure, but he can't be sure.

No he can't. He has heard rumors. He heard rumors about Ramsay as well I suppose.

But Jon knows some basic facts: Robb got killed at Edmures Wedding under guest right at the Twins. Roose is married to a Frey, he has Frey men at his side, he has been made Warden of the North by the Lannisters, his bastard son has been legitimized by the Lannisters. He is bound to marry Arya Stark, his most beloved sister. The Lannisters were Robb's enemies. The Freys are related to Lannisters and Crakehalls. The Freys and Boltons are known for treachery, deceit, etc.

I am not sure if Jon knew all about Janos Slynt's part in Ned's fall as well. But it's rather obvious for Jon that he was somehow involved, if you look at his sudden rise to Lord of Harrenhal and member of the SC. Tywin calls him friend as well. 2 + 2 = 4.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I tried to elaborate a little bit on the Wex thing in an earlier posting here. There are ways to salvage this. I think the best explanation is that Wex actually teamed up with Osha and Rickon for some time. Anything else wouldn't make a lot of sense.

The big mystery still is where the hell they caught a ship to Skagos and how Wex made it to White Harbor. It is pretty obvious he must have presented himself to Wyman or Robett or else neither of them would have realized that he knows stuff.

And I'm pretty sure Wex and Robett Glover will both accompany Davos to Skagos. Possibly even Wylla or Wynafryd Manderly. After all, the Skagosi, Osha, and Rickon need people to explain to them that Davos is a good guy. The idea that Davos alone could fetch Rickon back never made any sense. Lord Wyman needed Davos to captain the ship, not to do the talking with the Skagosi.

Somehow I don't see Osha and Rickon and Shaggydog teaming up with a mute Ironborn. Unlikely bedfellows IMHO.

Wex making it to WH isn't that difficult to imagine, he is a grown man skilled at arms. I think he can provide himself with enough food to reach the city from Winterfell.

What puzzles me is how he managed to reach Robett or Wyman. He is illiterate, he can't just write a letter to Lord Manderly, he is a mute he can't make his case clear infront of the court as Davos did. I mean the city guard and the smallfolk of WH must have realized that this guy was a mute and not a northman. Why didn't they just kill him?

Yes it's hard to imagine that Osha, rickon and a friggin Direwolf just walked into White Harbor and booked a passage on the monthly ferry to Skagos.  The only option here is that they somehow reached the lans more to the east/northeast. The Umber lands for example and took some wildling smuggler boat from a town there. Maybe the same boat that Osha and her band used to go south in the first place. But if they went so far north, then I think it's very hard for Wex to double back to WH without dying or getting captured.

Good argument about Wex and Robett accompanying Davos, I agree completely. Why should the Skagosi trust a complete stranger such as Davos, Robett is the man for such a mission, and wex is useful as witness and sailor.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Could be. But then, can Stannis be sure Roose was one of the main architects behind the Red Wedding or can he not also believe that Roose just stood aside and allowed Lord Walder to kill Robb? The latter wouldn't be so bad, would it?

Roose could easily enough challenge the right of Jon to leave the NW. He can be named Jon Stark all day long but honor and law dictate that he never leave the Wall. Roose would have every right to execute Jon as an oathbreaker if he ever left the Wall.

Roose could join Stannis just for the Others thing. He could refuse to assist him in any campaign in the South. After all, he doesn't have the men for such an adventure anyway.

If Stannis hadn't come 100,000 wildings would have passed the Wall, and there certainly were 10,000 or more professional soldiers among them.

Stannis will most likely also pardon those Northmen who fought first for Robb and then for Roose/Tommen.

Why was Roose rewarded with Warden of north,got his bastard son legitimized and got a Stark girl? All of this just for standing by, while Lord Walder did all the work. That's not how Lannisters pay their debts.

Robb thought that he could free Jon from his vows. If Robb can do it, Stannis can as well.

He has men: More than 4000 Boltons and even more if you count the other northmen. Stannis tried to get Storms End with fewer men, he made his adventure to the Wall with fewer men, he marched to Deepwood Motte with fewer men, why should Stannis not attempt to take the IT with a few northmen? Why should he accept Roose's refusal? He could name another Warden of the north, one who is more willingly to support his adventures.

Still after he destroyed their main power he let them through the Wall. Not exactly what northerners did for thousands of years.

He most likely will. But will he pardon Arnolf Karstark or Theon? I doubt it. Roose' betrayal might not be as bad as these two in Stannis/Jons eyes, but it is significantly worse than say the Manderlys, Ryswells, or Cerwyns change of allegiance after Robbs death.

[Jadakiss]

To the people saying that Jon doesn't know that Roose betrayed him for sure ect

 

just put 2 and 2 together. Roose is alive, Robb is dead. Roose is Warden of the North, he obviously did something in favor of the crown........ roose is married to a frey.... no need to go on

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Lord Wyman needed Davos to captain the ship, not to do the talking with the Skagosi.

That bit I don't get either. White Harbour is most definitely not short of sailors? I thought the reason that Manderly wants Davos for the mission is that it keeps him at arms length - if Boltons or Lannisters find out that someone's on a mission to find Rickon to reinstate the Starks in the North, it can be blamed on Stannis, not Wyman. Also, by sending Stannis's Hand (who was also sent as an envoy), it helps to commit Stannis to reinstating a Stark, rather than one of his own, as Lord of Winterfell. That he's a sailor and a smuggler is obviously useful, but not the only reason.

11 hours ago, Bironic said:

One of the problems with the threat of the Others is that only a few men have actually witnessed the threat of the Others. most of these have only seen the wights not the Others. And these men are either wildlings (hated and believed to be unreliable throughout the North) or NW, most of them commoners or criminals. Not exactly the kind of people Roose or the average Lord gives much thought about.

The Others or the Wights have never attacked northern Lords sofar. If Say a Karstark or an Umber goes to Roose and says: I saw how my son got killed by an Other and rose again as a wight, this would probably convince men such as Ned or Roose that they are infact a threat. But as long as they remain on the other side of the wall, only occasionly killing some random wildlings or NW rangers, they're not perceived as a threat.

Look at how hard it is for Jon Snow to convince Bowen Marsh or Othell Yarwick that his policies are right, men who have almost firsthand knowledge of Wights and Others. Imagine how far fetched such a threat is for someone like Roose who lives hundreds of miles south of the wall, has never witnessed the horrors of Wights or Others. Furthermore he has much more pressuring problems at hand, such as Ironborn, disputes between his bannermen, death of his best allies such as Tywin, a marriage for his crazy son, or missing Starks.

I think that's spot on actually. Whenever the issue is raised it's dismissed as the usual "grumkins and snarks" stuff.

[Lord Varys]

11 hours ago, Bironic said:

No he can't. He has heard rumors. He heard rumors about Ramsay as well I suppose.

Now, we have to consider the time line. Jon only hears about the Arya-Ramsay match from Ramsay himself, in his letter. Jon is told about Robb's death in ASoS, I think, by Sam, who has heard rumors about it, but there is chapter actually covering him inquiring about it any further. Keep in mind that Jon still doesn't want to look weak by publicly showing anger or grief over the death of his family members. If he asked Aemon about any reliable news about the whole thing he did so without it being mentioned in the books. And he clearly would never ask Stannis directly about that, either, less to appear weak in his eyes. Especially not after he became the new Lord Commander.

Thus, I think, we cannot really assume all the Bolton stuff we know from ADwD would figure into a discussion of the threats the Others pose immediately after the defeat of the wilidings. And that's when this whole thing should have come up. Late in ASoS or early on in ADwD, not later in the story.

Oh, and Roose being married to a Frey isn't evidence against him. He married Lady Walda long before he even contemplated open betrayal (which was after the Blackwater and became clear only after the news of Robb's wedding arrived - Roose most likely wouldn't have worked with the Freys had they stuck with Robb in a scenario in which Robb actually had married a Frey girl).

11 hours ago, Bironic said:

Somehow I don't see Osha and Rickon and Shaggydog teaming up with a mute Ironborn. Unlikely bedfellows IMHO.

Oh, it wouldn't have been an easy thing. I assume Wex followed them and then Shaggy and Osha sniffed him out, captured him, and allowed him to accompany them. After all, Wex is only 14 in 300 AC, being born in 286 AC. He is still very much a boy, and as an Ironborn survivor not likely to betray them to the Boltons. Not to mention that him being a mute would make treason rather difficult in any case.

11 hours ago, Bironic said:

Wex making it to WH isn't that difficult to imagine, he is a grown man skilled at arms. I think he can provide himself with enough food to reach the city from Winterfell.

Well, Wex Pyke isn't a man grown. And while he might be pretty skilled at arms for his age as well as a capable sailor he is most likely not a skilled huntsman or forager in the lands of the North. He is very unlikely to have survived on his own. Not unless we assume he was captured by Manderly men in the near vicinity of Winterfell - and that's not very likely.

11 hours ago, Bironic said:

What puzzles me is how he managed to reach Robett or Wyman. He is illiterate, he can't just write a letter to Lord Manderly, he is a mute he can't make his case clear infront of the court as Davos did. I mean the city guard and the smallfolk of WH must have realized that this guy was a mute and not a northman. Why didn't they just kill him?

I see no reason to assume that Wex could be identified as an Ironborn or non-Northman on sight. I mean, do you think every Northman wears a T-Shirt which reads 'I love the North' or every Ironborn has written 'We do not sow you morons' on his forehead?

And since Wex is mute they can't even identify him going by his accent. Unless he was running around with the Greyjoy kraken or the Botley fish on his clothes there is no chance that they would realized he was an Ironborn.

I guess regardless where Wex joined the Manderlys men it is very likely he was arrested on their initiative but instead sought them out and gave them some evidence - perhaps something from Winterfell - that identified him as a survivor from the battle of Winterfell. That would have made him very interesting for the Manderlys.

11 hours ago, Bironic said:

Yes it's hard to imagine that Osha, rickon and a friggin Direwolf just walked into White Harbor and booked a passage on the monthly ferry to Skagos.  The only option here is that they somehow reached the lans more to the east/northeast. The Umber lands for example and took some wildling smuggler boat from a town there. Maybe the same boat that Osha and her band used to go south in the first place. But if they went so far north, then I think it's very hard for Wex to double back to WH without dying or getting captured.

It actually seems more likely that Osha and her gang crossed the Bay of Ice and the West not the Bay of Seals/waters near Skagos in the East. They were on their way down south when they crossed the Wolfswood in AGoT. However, Osha still can originally be from Skagos, have relations there, or at least know how to get there from her earlier days. The wildling raiders aren't bound to some stupid all their life, after all.

And no, there don't seem to be any ships in White Harbor that routinely go to Skagos. That's why Wyman needs Davos. And it is not even very likely that smugglers go to Skagos, either. After all, Davos apparently never was on Skagos, and he is a former smuggler.

I guess the story of Osha/Rickon/Wex could be pretty interesting in their own right. I doubt they originally intended to go to Skagos. Perhaps they met somebody on the road who intended to go there or they got the chance to go there when they arrived at whatever harbor they left the mainland from.

My idea would be that Wex only left them at this point because he could never be actually certain that they would be on Skagos if never saw them leave for the island. Him overhearing Osha that they intend to go there doesn't make it so in the end. Perhaps he even accompanied them to Skagos and only left them there? In any case, I'm pretty sure Osha sent him to the Manderlys to ensure that the news about Rickon's whereabouts would reach Robb and Catelyn.

12 hours ago, Bironic said:

Good argument about Wex and Robett accompanying Davos, I agree completely. Why should the Skagosi trust a complete stranger such as Davos, Robett is the man for such a mission, and wex is useful as witness and sailor.

I think we can take Robett accompanying Davos as a given because he simply disappears from the story after Davos' last chapter.

12 hours ago, Bironic said:

Why was Roose rewarded with Warden of north,got his bastard son legitimized and got a Stark girl? All of this just for standing by, while Lord Walder did all the work. That's not how Lannisters pay their debts.

Certainly a possible scenario. But they needed somebody to take over the North in any case. Why not Roose?

12 hours ago, Bironic said:

Robb thought that he could free Jon from his vows. If Robb can do it, Stannis can as well.

No, Robb intended to buy Jon out of his vows by offering the NW as many men as they demanded in exchange for Jon. Robb was the King of the North at the time of his death and commanded the fealty of all the Northmen at this point. If he he freed him brother from the NW vows that might have been accepted because he was the king.

But Stannis isn't a Stark nor the accepted king of the Northmen at this point. Roose could very easily challenge Stannis' right to do this and many Northmen might agree - all those who would quietly disapprove of Robb Stark freeing his brother from his oaths as well. In Stannis case they might openly object, especially considering that they would now be forced to accept this oath-breaking Stark bastard as their new overlord. It is very unlikely that this would have worked.

Even less so in the scenario Stannis suggested to Jon where he was supposed to burn the godswood of Winterfell as a sign of fealty to Stannis and R'hllor. That way both Stannis and Jon would have quickly lost the North to Roose Bolton.

12 hours ago, Bironic said:

He has men: More than 4000 Boltons and even more if you count the other northmen. Stannis tried to get Storms End with fewer men, he made his adventure to the Wall with fewer men, he marched to Deepwood Motte with fewer men, why should Stannis not attempt to take the IT with a few northmen? Why should he accept Roose's refusal? He could name another Warden of the north, one who is more willingly to support his adventures.

Well, he could name anybody he likes but the chances simply are that only a tiny fraction of the Northmen would follow him on a campaign in the middle of winter.

48 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

That bit I don't get either. White Harbour is most definitely not short of sailors? I thought the reason that Manderly wants Davos for the mission is that it keeps him at arms length - if Boltons or Lannisters find out that someone's on a mission to find Rickon to reinstate the Starks in the North, it can be blamed on Stannis, not Wyman. Also, by sending Stannis's Hand (who was also sent as an envoy), it helps to commit Stannis to reinstating a Stark, rather than one of his own, as Lord of Winterfell. That he's a sailor and a smuggler is obviously useful, but not the only reason.

The reason Wyman gives is that he actually does not have experienced sailors. Could be a lie but then White Harbor doesn't have a long history of experienced deep-sea navigators. The Manderlys aren't the Redwynes. They don't have a merchant nor a war fleet. They just maintain and defend a coastal city with a big harbor and apparently ship the goods reaching their city up and down the White Knife.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

35 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The reason Wyman gives is that he actually does not have experienced sailors. Could be a lie but then White Harbor doesn't have a long history of experienced deep-sea navigators. The Manderlys aren't the Redwynes. They don't have a merchant nor a war fleet. They just maintain and defend a coastal city with a big harbor and apparently ship the goods reaching their city up and down the White Knife.

I actually didn’t remember him saying that, fair enough. He was building warships though, and given he controls a port you would assume he could rustle up a sailor or two, so that seems odd to me.

I don’t think he’s lying, I just think it’s a bit of a strange explanation for why he’s sending Davos. I never really questioned his choice in sending Davos though. He wants to secretly retrieve Rickon in a remote place inaccessible other than by boat, as part of a plot to take revenge on the Freys and the Boltons, and reinstate the Stark dynasty he’s loyal to…and along comes the right-hand man of Stannis, one of the Freys and Boltons implacable enemies, who is renowned for his ability to sail to remote places secretly. Davos is the obvious choice, I just think it’s strange that the only stated reason is that he knows how to handle a ship, and the master of the region’s chief port who is building a fleet can’t find a sailor.

[bent branch]

15 hours ago, Bironic said:

One of the problems with the threat of the Others is that only a few men have actually witnessed the threat of the Others. most of these have only seen the wights not the Others. And these men are either wildlings (hated and believed to be unreliable throughout the North) or NW, most of them commoners or criminals. Not exactly the kind of people Roose or the average Lord gives much thought about.

The Others or the Wights have never attacked northern Lords sofar. If Say a Karstark or an Umber goes to Roose and says: I saw how my son got killed by an Other and rose again as a wight, this would probably convince men such as Ned or Roose that they are infact a threat. But as long as they remain on the other side of the wall, only occasionly killing some random wildlings or NW rangers, they're not perceived as a threat.

Look at how hard it is for Jon Snow to convince Bowen Marsh or Othell Yarwick that his policies are right, men who have almost firsthand knowledge of Wights and Others. Imagine how far fetched such a threat is for someone like Roose who lives hundreds of miles south of the wall, has never witnessed the horrors of Wights or Others. Furthermore he has much more pressuring problems at hand, such as Ironborn, disputes between his bannermen, death of his best allies such as Tywin, a marriage for his crazy son, or missing Starks.

Exactly! The idea that there is some supernatural threat coming from beyond the Wall is probably near as hard as sell to most people in the story as it would be to people in our world. Of all the ravens sent to this point only one person, Stannis, didn't dismiss the tales as the Wildlings being particularly difficult. And Stannis almost didn't find out about the Others as Maester Pylos had decided not to tell Stannis about them.

1 hour ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I actually didn’t remember him saying that, fair enough. He was building warships though, and given he controls a port you would assume he could rustle up a sailor or two, so that seems odd to me.

I don’t think he’s lying, I just think it’s a bit of a strange explanation for why he’s sending Davos. I never really questioned his choice in sending Davos though. He wants to secretly retrieve Rickon in a remote place inaccessible other than by boat, as part of a plot to take revenge on the Freys and the Boltons, and reinstate the Stark dynasty he’s loyal to…and along comes the right-hand man of Stannis, one of the Freys and Boltons implacable enemies, who is renowned for his ability to sail to remote places secretly. Davos is the obvious choice, I just think it’s strange that the only stated reason is that he knows how to handle a ship, and the master of the region’s chief port who is building a fleet can’t find a sailor.

 

 

 

It is not at all strange that Manderly couldn't find someone to take mission. The sailors that worked out of White Harbor were not skilled at open ocean sailing and Skaagos being a difficult island to approach, made it unlikely that he was going to find a skilled captain willing to go there in fall when ocean travel was its most treacherous. The only reason Davos agreed to undertake such a dangerous mission is because Manderly promised to pledge fealty to Stannis if he managed to bring back Rickon. Only a motive greater than money could convince someone to go.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

Just now, bent branch said:

The only reason Davos agreed to undertake such a dangerous mission is because Manderly promised to pledge fealty to Stannis if he managed to bring back Rickon. Only a motive greater than money could convince someone to go.

Yeah that's a good point. There are lots of perfectly good reasons why Davos is the ideal choice, I'm just saying that the (important) fact he knows how to handle a boat isn't the only one.

[Bironic]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, and Roose being married to a Frey isn't evidence against him. He married Lady Walda long before he even contemplated open betrayal (which was after the Blackwater and became clear only after the news of Robb's wedding arrived - Roose most likely wouldn't have worked with the Freys had they stuck with Robb in a scenario in which Robb actually had married a Frey girl).

Yes he married her long before, but when does the NW learn about this marriage? before or after the RW? And being married to a frey is enough evidence for some people...

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I see no reason to assume that Wex could be identified as an Ironborn or non-Northman on sight. I mean, do you think every Northman wears a T-Shirt which reads 'I love the North' or every Ironborn has written 'We do not sow you morons' on his forehead?

No but maybe he has a baseball cap with Make The Ironborn Great Again written on it.

Seriously though if he gets captured and has Ironborn armor/weapons/clothing on him, the easiest explanation would be that he is an Ironborn.  If they are able to interrogate him, they will find out the truth. I mean Wex knows so little about northern customs, religion, geography, culture that he can't pose as a northerner. I mean he could certainly make them believe that he is from the Wintertown for example, but they will find out that he is lying.

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Certainly a possible scenario. But they needed somebody to take over the North in any case. Why not Roose?

No, Robb intended to buy Jon out of his vows by offering the NW as many men as they demanded in exchange for Jon. Robb was the King of the North at the time of his death and commanded the fealty of all the Northmen at this point. If he he freed him brother from the NW vows that might have been accepted because he was the king.

But Stannis isn't a Stark nor the accepted king of the Northmen at this point. Roose could very easily challenge Stannis' right to do this and many Northmen might agree - all those who would quietly disapprove of Robb Stark freeing his brother from his oaths as well. In Stannis case they might openly object, especially considering that they would now be forced to accept this oath-breaking Stark bastard as their new overlord. It is very unlikely that this would have worked.

Even less so in the scenario Stannis suggested to Jon where he was supposed to burn the godswood of Winterfell as a sign of fealty to Stannis and R'hllor. That way both Stannis and Jon would have quickly lost the North to Roose Bolton.

Well, he could name anybody he likes but the chances simply are that only a tiny fraction of the Northmen would follow him on a campaign in the middle of winter.

Prior to Purple Wedding: Why not Tyrion Lannister? After PW: Why not Harrion or Arnolf Karstark? Why not marrying FArya to a Westerman? Why not some northern hostage?

No Robb didn't command the fealty of all Northmen: The Karstarks have abandoned him at this point, and unbeknownst to him the Boltons as well.

Stannis himself thinks that the north would rally around every son/child of their precious Ned Stark. He thinks that the easiest way to get the north is Jon Snow. Ok Stannis isn't Tyrion or Varys when it comes to play the game, but if he thinks it's a good way, I am inclined to agree.

Yes burning the weirwoods would have pissed of the majority of northmen. But since this is a speculative scenario, Jon, Davos, Justin Massey etc might have had a chance to talk Stannis out of this madness. Stannis isn't a religious fanatic after all.

Well they followed him to free FArya in the middle of Winter. As we see there are lots of northerners who prefer to die in a battle rather than starve from cold and hunger, which is what happens if they stay in the north. Usually they go hunting, never to return. Stannis gives them a more honorable reason: come with me to kill some lannisters. Rodrick Dustin and his winter wolves seem to have had a similar mission, even Cregan Stark marched south in the middle of Winter.

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, it wouldn't have been an easy thing. I assume Wex followed them and then Shaggy and Osha sniffed him out, captured him, and allowed him to accompany them. After all, Wex is only 14 in 300 AC, being born in 286 AC. He is still very much a boy, and as an Ironborn survivor not likely to betray them to the Boltons. Not to mention that him being a mute would make treason rather difficult in any case.

Well, Wex Pyke isn't a man grown. And while he might be pretty skilled at arms for his age as well as a capable sailor he is most likely not a skilled huntsman or forager in the lands of the North. He is very unlikely to have survived on his own. Not unless we assume he was captured by Manderly men in the near vicinity of Winterfell - and that's not very likely.

I'm sorry I forgot Wex age. In my mind he was around 16/17.

I agree that it is unlikely for Wex to betray Osha and Rickon to the Boltons(not impossible though if he wants to save his skin). But Osha is a wildling, rickon a kid and shaggy an aggressive direwolf, why didn't they just kill him? He is of no use to them. And he can't be trusted either, he is Ironborn after all.

I wouldn't say that it is so unlikely that he got captured by manderly men "near" winterfell though. Manderly sent men to the hornwood lands and to winterfell. He could have vey well stumbled into them.

If he really joined Osha, why did he leave? Why was he allowed to leave? How did he manage to leave? Almost as unlikely than being captured by Manderly men somewhere between WH and Winterfell/Hornwood Lands.

Quote

Now, we have to consider the time line. Jon only hears about the Arya-Ramsay match from Ramsay himself, in his letter. Jon is told about Robb's death in ASoS, I think, by Sam, who has heard rumors about it, but there is chapter actually covering him inquiring about it any further. Keep in mind that Jon still doesn't want to look weak by publicly showing anger or grief over the death of his family members. If he asked Aemon about any reliable news about the whole thing he did so without it being mentioned in the books. And he clearly would never ask Stannis directly about that, either, less to appear weak in his eyes. Especially not after he became the new Lord Commander.

Thus, I think, we cannot really assume all the Bolton stuff we know from ADwD would figure into a discussion of the threats the Others pose immediately after the defeat of the wilidings. And that's when this whole thing should have come up. Late in ASoS or early on in ADwD, not later in the story.

I don't think that any northern lord thinks that the Others pose a threat immediately after the defeat of the Wildlings. Some northern Lords think that the Wildlings are a threat, but the northern lords are for the most part ignorant of the threat of the Others.

I think Sam has heard more than rumors, he has access to the ravens. He has most likely read the official Bolton-Frey-Lannister version of what happened at the RW. Jon Snow most likely doesn't believe this version, no more than he believed Ned Starks treason in AGOT. He has heard rumors about what really happend, unreliable rumors sometimes to be sure, but no always. Furthermore people talk even if you don't ask them.

 

[devilish]

20 hours ago, Jadakiss said:

 

If there was a battle roose would be nowhere near jon, nowhere near the battle. he would be safe in WF with a garrison of guards

 

He would be expected to lead his troops just like ned\  robb did

[Bironic]

13 minutes ago, devilish said:

 

He would be expected to lead his troops just like ned\  robb did

But he would probably lead from behind like Stannis and Tywin did. Jon could very well be more in the thick of things.

[Jadakiss]

6 hours ago, devilish said:

 

He would be expected to lead his troops just like ned\  robb did

 

This is Roose we are talking about. who is extra careful. look at what he is doing now, sending out a bunch of men while he is safe

Even if it were the wights, he would want to be nowhere near jon snow and thousands of other that would stab and kill him any chance they get. He would remained in a safe fortified position with guards

[devilish]

14 hours ago, Bironic said:

But he would probably lead from behind like Stannis and Tywin did. Jon could very well be more in the thick of things.

The Northerners do not like generals like that and with Roose desperate to impress he'll be mad to do so.

Also Tywin and Stannis might have been leading from behind but they weren't drinking cuppa of coffee at CR/Dragonstone when their armies were fighting. 

[devilish]

8 hours ago, Jadakiss said:

 

This is Roose we are talking about. who is extra careful. look at what he is doing now, sending out a bunch of men while he is safe

Even if it were the wights, he would want to be nowhere near jon snow and thousands of other that would stab and kill him any chance they get. He would remained in a safe fortified position with guards

Exactly, Roose is extra careful. He  will certainly not trust a bastard for the second time round and he knows that he can't afford to look stupid amongst his own men by staying at the back especially since the Stark bastard will be fighting side by side with them. 

Therefore the best decision to take is to ignore Jon Snow's plea. He'll argue that its winter and there's a huge possibility that ravens die before they reach the dreadfort/Winterfell. If the wall was in such bad shape, then why didn't JS come and beg for his help at the Dreadfort/Winterfell himself? LC were never afraid of sharing the same roof with the Warden of the North. Why is JS so reluctant to do that?

Needless to say that JS will never do that, else he will risk not returning to the wall ever. 

 

[myhalfgroat]

we don't know for certain that Jon hasn't told the Boltons, but even so, there's no reason for them to believe him.

Jon messed this up from the beginning. of course nobody would believe him. a respected man like the Old Bear dies and a young bastard replaces him and coincidentally that very same week the Others come back from their several thousand year absence. while we know that isn't how things went down, I think it is safe to say that a House/King may interpret it that way.

Jon sent out letters and that's it. the biggest threat the 7 kingdoms has faced in millennia and that's all he does. Jon:"what more could I do? I even sent a second raven to KL! that's twice as many ravens as one!"  Jeor had the right idea of sending a hand down to KL, but it didn't work. well, Jon has more proof available to him than the Old Bear did. he should have taken a wight captive, put it in a cage on a wagon, and sent 10 men down the King's Road. then Houses would see proof along the way and he would get visual confirmation from thousands of people if something happened before getting to KL. most importantly, the first Houses to see proof would be Northern Houses. those with the most at stake and historically the most supportive of the Watch.

back to the OP, if Jon had done this there would have been no way to avoid the facts facing them and the Northern Houses would have demanded that the Warden of the North rally men to fight the great threat.

[Bironic]

7 hours ago, devilish said:

The Northerners do not like generals like that and with Roose desperate to impress he'll be mad to do so.

Also Tywin and Stannis might have been leading from behind but they weren't drinking cuppa of coffee at CR/Dragonstone when their armies were fighting. 

Supposedly Ned led from behind as well, Catelyn says as much. As did Roose in the Wot5K. I Never said roose drinks a cup of tea in a safe place while his armies fight somewhere.