Was Aerys trying to undermine Rhaegar after the Duskendale incident?

[King Ned Stark]

Aerys sent Lord Steffon across the Narrow Sea to find Rhaegar a bride with the blood of Old Valyria, or so it would appear.  Is it possible that Aerys wanted a bride for his son that would bring his son negligible political and military influence within Westeros.

When a suitable bride was not found, Aerys then brokered the deal with Dorne for Rhaegar to marry Elia, who was known to be in delicate health.  Was it Aerys's hope that she could not give Rhaegar an heir? A possible clue is that Tywin denied the Martells a betrothal between Jaime and Elia, which makes little sense unless Tywin suspected she would have trouble with childbirth.  I understand holding out for Cersei to marry Rhaegar, but was there someone better than Elia for Jaime?

By waiting so long, Aerys missed on the opportunity to betroth Rhaegar to Catelyn Tully and Lyanna Stark, and denied Cersei Lannister.  

[aryagonnakill#2]

The Dornish had married into the Targ line in the past, giving them some dragon blood.  It fits the Targ history for Elie to have been Rhaegars match.  Viserys was very young compared to Rhaegar, I do not know the exact timeline but Rhaegar was his only heir most of the time and before he was born the only hope to continue his bloodline was Rhaegar so I very much doubt that was his intention.

[Lord Varys]

I think Aerys II was so obsessed finding a pure-blooded Valyrian bride for Rhaegar because of the pressure/expectancy of the prophecy of the promised prince. If Aerys believed that Rhaegar wasn't the promise prince after all, and if Rhaegar had no sister to marry (my idea is that he only began look for a bride so late because he always hoped he and Rhaella would finally get a daughter Rhaegar could marry - or his cousin Steffon would produce a daughter Rhaegar could marry - if Renly had been female things could have been so easy) then Volantis was a much better way to look for a pure-blooded Valyrian bride than the few cousins the Targaryens still had in Westeros - and of those Elia Martell was certainly the noblest woman around. A Penrose, Tarth, Plumm, etc. wouldn't be a worthy Queen of Westeros (and there seems to be no Velaryon woman around Rhaegar could have married).

The idea is that Aerys (and perhaps Rhaegar himself, too) might have believed that taking a non-Valyrian bride would reduce the chance that the Targaryens could produce the promised prince in spite of the Ghost's prophecy.

[Mage of Hornets]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I think Aerys II was so obsessed finding a pure-blooded Valyrian bride for Rhaegar because of the pressure/expectancy of the prophecy of the promised prince.

Did Aerys know about (and believe in) the PTWP prophecy? I thought that was something that Rhaegar had sleuthed out in his scholarly perusing of the archives, and only shared with his intimate circle. Maybe I missed something, though?

I could definitely envision Aerys wanting to avoid marrying Rhaegar to a "mudblood" out of basic Targaryen traditionalism/snobbery.

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, Mage of Hornets said:

Did Aerys know about (and believe in) the PTWP prophecy? I thought that was something that Rhaegar had sleuthed out in his scholarly perusing of the archives, and only shared with his intimate circle. Maybe I missed something, though?

I could definitely envision Aerys wanting to avoid marrying Rhaegar to a "mudblood" out of basic Targaryen traditionalism/snobbery.

Did you read ADwD and TWoIaF? The Ghost of High Heart made a prophecy that the promised prince would be born from the line of Prince Aerys and Princess Rhaella, which is why their father, the later Jaehaerys II, forced them to marry each other. The prophecy of (and the search for) the promised prince determined the very marriage of Aerys and Rhaella. It essentially ruled their lives.

The idea that Rhaegar stumbled on the original prophecy foretelling the coming of the promised prince on his own in the archives or library of the Red Keep is exceedingly unlikely. There would the thousands books and scrolls there, how likely is it that Rhaegar just chanced on that prophecy and suddenly concluded that he was promised prince the prophecy spoke about?

No, Rhaegar was fed the idea that he was the promised prince, most likely from his parents although his grandfather Jaehaerys II (who died when Rhaegar was 2-3 years old) might have made the connection first. Maester Aemon also believed that Rhaegar was the one but he wasn't around to talk to the young boy, either, so only Aerys II himself and Rhaella remain.

TWoIaF does not mention why Aerys and Rhaella's marriage was so strained once they were incapable of producing living children after the birth of Rhaegar but if they knew about the three dragon heads part from the promised prince prophecy they might have believed that they were failing destiny/Rhaegar in producing the companions the promised prince would need to succeed. And once Rhaegar had no siblings in his own age and was less and less likely to even have a sister to marry they might have finally decided (and Rhaegar, too) that he simply wasn't the one. The other part of the pressure is that House Targaryen needed more heirs after the tragedy of Summerhall. But here it is very odd, too, that they don't look for some bride for Rhaegar as soon as possible. After all, if Aerys and Rhaella can't get more children then Prince Rhaegar should try as soon as possible.

But Rhaegar is only betrothed to Elia Martell in the year 279 AC, when he is twenty, and marries her a year later. Usually a Targaryen prince marries much earlier than that, and the members of the family are often betrothed in childhood or even infancy.

And as for snobbery - Aerys and Rhaella did not want to marry each other. Aerys apparently had the hots for Joanna Lannister and Rhaella was in love with Ser Bonifer Hasty. I don't think that Aerys was as much a traditionalist in the marriage department as people used to think.

[PCK]

Why didn't Aerys disinherit Rhaegar after Harrenhal? No way he planned on dying at 39 by the hand of one of his own KG. 

[Mage of Hornets]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Ghost of High Heart made a prophecy that the promised prince would be born from the line of Prince Aerys and Princess Rhaella, which is why their father, the later Jaehaerys II, forced them to marry each other.

My bad, I completely forgot that the Ghost was the source for this. I was (mis)remembering Barristan's story about how the young Rhaegar found something "in one of his scrolls" that made him decide to take up arms and become a knight. ...Quite possibly something that Rhaegar thought was relevant to his Prince-producing destiny, but not the main prophecy itself.

To the OP's question, it seems plausible to me that Aerys might have tried to undercut Rhaegar post-Duskendale, when A, Aerys was crazy and paranoid, and B, he had another heir. But there are also lots of normal, political reasons why Elia would be a logical match: The Martell "princes" and "princesses" were the closest thing to non-Targaryen royalty left in Westeros, the families had intermarried before, she had a drop of dragon blood, was about the right age, Dorne was an important ally (especially if Aerys thought that he was going to clash with the Lannisters at some point).

As far as Aerys being concerned that a Valyrian bride for Rhaegar was needed to ensure the fulfillment of the prophecy, maybe. I don't think there's anything in the books (so far) to suggest that, but of course we've got another 2500-3000 pages to go. I think it's also possible that Aerys thought that the prophecy was bunk, and was furious at being told whom to marry based on something he didn't believe in. Maybe he felt that once he and Rhaella cranked out an heir or two, he had discharged his duty. That speculation is also unsupported by the text, but I don't remember reading anything about Aerys saying or doing something after his marriage to indicate that he was actively working to fulfill the prophecy. Rhaegar getting married later than normal is interesting, but doesn't seem like enough to build anything definite on.

[theblackdragonI]

22 hours ago, King Ned Stark said:

Aerys sent Lord Steffon across the Narrow Sea to find Rhaegar a bride with the blood of Old Valyria, or so it would appear.  Is it possible that Aerys wanted a bride for his son that would bring his son negligible political and military influence within Westeros.

When a suitable bride was not found, Aerys then brokered the deal with Dorne for Rhaegar to marry Elia, who was known to be in delicate health.  Was it Aerys's hope that she could not give Rhaegar an heir? A possible clue is that Tywin denied the Martells a betrothal between Jaime and Elia, which makes little sense unless Tywin suspected she would have trouble with childbirth.  I understand holding out for Cersei to marry Rhaegar, but was there someone better than Elia for Jaime?

By waiting so long, Aerys missed on the opportunity to betroth Rhaegar to Catelyn Tully and Lyanna Stark, and denied Cersei Lannister.  

Well we know Tywin was considering marrying Jaime to Lysa Tully as Catelyn was betrothed to Brandon. Perhaps he just considered the Tullys and Riverlands a better alliance due to their proximity and larger amount of troops. 

2 hours ago, PCK said:

Why didn't Aerys disinherit Rhaegar after Harrenhal? No way he planned on dying at 39 by the hand of one of his own KG. 

I'd imagine the thought crossed his mind and I'll guess it came down to three things:

1) Rhaegar would most likely have rebelled with the support of Dorne at least.

2) Aerys had no proof that Rhaegar was plotting against him bar Varys word, yes his actions at Harrenhal were stupid. But  I get the sense that Aerys was the kind of madman that would care more about his vassals being insulted than his son insulting the vassals.. 

3) There was no need to at the moment. Nobody expected Rhaegar to kidnap Lyanna and start a war. He probably wanted to wait until Viserys was older and ready to take over Rhaegar's responsibilities. Plus there was the prophecy to think about and I'm sure he wanted Rhaegar around a little bit. 

[Michael Mertyns]

Tywin Lannister, with whom Aerys's relations were already strained, was heard saying at Duskendale that Rhaegar would be a better king. Clearly, Tywin was trying to replace Aerys with Rhaegar. I mean, the guy stays in the Red Keep for four years and then emerges only because he was suspicious of Rhaegar's intentions. I see no reason why he wouldn't be trying other things to hold Rhaegar back

[Vaedys Targaryen]

I'm wondering why did Aerys decide that Rhaegar was to marry Elia? Did the Velaryons and/or Celtigars not have any women around Rhaegar's age? What about Lys? The blood of Valyria runs thick there and there are many ancient houses of Valyrian descent.

And why was Steffon unable to find a Volantene bride for Rhaegar? Is there not a huge advantage in marrying your daughter or grand-daughter to the crown-prince of an entire continent?

[The hairy bear]

2 hours ago, Vaedys Targaryen said:

Did the Velaryons and/or Celtigars not have any women around Rhaegar's age?

We haven't heard of any existing Velaryon woman in the times of Asoiaf. I assume that there wasn't any of an age with Rhaegar, as I'm sure Aerys would have liked the match.

It seems to me the Celtigars are not considered of sufficient high birth to marry a royal prince. Only in the first years of the Targaryen reign we see them holding significant posts (a master of coin and a Hand), but they seem to have been ignored afterwards. I'd say that the Velaryons were an old, noble Valyrian family while the Celtigars were of lower stock.

2 hours ago, Vaedys Targaryen said:

And why was Steffon unable to find a Volantene bride for Rhaegar? Is there not a huge advantage in marrying your daughter or grand-daughter to the crown-prince of an entire continent?

To marry a crown prince, having Valyrian blood wouldn't be enough. You need to come from a family that's old, powerful and noble. Newcomers or upjumped merchants do not work for their purposes. They need families with an unbroken lineage going back to the days before the Doom. I don't think that there are so many.

And of course, the very few families that match those requisites are likely to have their daughter betrothed or married are a very young age, so there can't be many opportunities.

2 hours ago, Vaedys Targaryen said:

What about Lys? The blood of Valyria runs thick there and there are many ancient houses of Valyrian descent.

Besides the fact that Volantis is older and more prestigious (in Valyrian terms), another reason to disregard Lys could be the bad experience of the only experience of a Lysenne queen of Westeros. Viserys' wife felt homesick and abandoned him to return home. Surely many blame Aegon IV's behaviour to her mother abandoning him. I'm sure no one would be enthralled with the prospect of another Lysenne queen.

 

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Vaedys Targaryen said:

I'm wondering why did Aerys decide that Rhaegar was to marry Elia? Did the Velaryons and/or Celtigars not have any women around Rhaegar's age?

I guess so. What little evidence we have about the contemporary Velaryons suggests that they don't have any women around. Little Monterys Velaryon doesn't seem to have a sister nor is there any hint that Lord Monford Velaryon (presumably the son and heir of Lucerys Velaryon, the Master of Ship under Aerys II) had any sisters. If the house was cut down to a single branch there simply might not have been an eligible Velaryon bride for Rhaegar.

I'm not sure the Celtigars would have been suitable brides for a Prince of Dragonstone. There is no precedent for such a marriage, making the degree of kinship between them and the Targaryens very distant and the purity of their Valyrian bloodline essentially non-existent.

2 hours ago, Vaedys Targaryen said:

What about Lys? The blood of Valyria runs thick there and there are many ancient houses of Valyrian descent.

Yes, but it seems that Aerys II didn't send Steffon to Lys at all. Possibly because the ancient families with confirmed dragonlord ancestry there were on the decline (the Rogares could very well be extinct by now, and Serenei of Lys was the last scion of some ancient Lysene line, too, possibly even the last Rogare) or because he found that only a scion of the Old Blood of Volantis was worthy enough to marry into House Targaryen. Most or all of them seem to have dragonlords among their (distant) ancestors.

2 hours ago, Vaedys Targaryen said:

And why was Steffon unable to find a Volantene bride for Rhaegar? Is there not a huge advantage in marrying your daughter or grand-daughter to the crown-prince of an entire continent?

Well, Aerys II already had the reputation of being the Mad King. Just as Olenna Redwyne did not want her granddaughter to remain married to Joffrey, most of the Volantene nobility might have considered marrying their daughter to the son of some madman in a distant country not exactly a great idea.

Even more so if the economic ties between King's Landing and Volantis aren't all that strong. If Aerys II wasn't able to offer much to the ruling families of Volantis there wouldn't have been any incentive for them consider such a match.

Keep in mind that the Free Cities (quite correctly) perceive the Seven Kingdoms as a backwater kingdom. Yes, Westeros is big but it has no infrastructure to speak of.

3 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

To marry a crown prince, having Valyrian blood wouldn't be enough. You need to come from a family that's old, powerful and noble. Newcomers or upjumped merchants do not work for their purposes. They need families with an unbroken lineage going back to the days before the Doom. I don't think that there are so many.

Oh, I think the Old Blood is made up completely of such families. Perhaps there are some few upstarts with a non-dragonlord Valyrian ancestry who grew rich through trade and could then join the club but the overwhelming majority of the Volantene ruling class must be descendants of Valyrian nobility, many of which who are descended from dragonlords.

3 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

And of course, the very few families that match those requisites are likely to have their daughter betrothed or married are a very young age, so there can't be many opportunities.

That is another important factor. One assumes that incest-matches are still quite common/the rule among the Volantene nobility considering that they are much closer to the overall Valyrian customs than the Targaryens (and even they stuck to it), making it very unlikely that many nobles there would be willing to part with their sisters or daughters. Only spare women could be married to outsiders, and one assume that those were often used to form alliances between various Old Blood families rather than married into different countries.

One assumes Steffon might have 3-4 girls who met Aerys' criteria but their families eventually all (politely) declined.

[Bironic]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, but it seems that Aerys II didn't send Steffon to Lys at all. Possibly because the ancient families with confirmed dragonlord ancestry there were on the decline (the Rogares could very well be extinct by now, and Serenei of Lys was the last scion of some ancient Lysene line, too, possibly even the last Rogare) or because he found that only a scion of the Old Blood of Volantis was worthy enough to marry into House Targaryen. Most or all of them seem to have dragonlords among their (distant) ancestors.

Well, Aerys II already had the reputation of being the Mad King. Just as Olenna Redwyne did not want her granddaughter to remain married to Joffrey, most of the Volantene nobility might have considered marrying their daughter to the son of some madman in a distant country not exactly a great idea.

Even more so if the economic ties between King's Landing and Volantis aren't all that strong. If Aerys II wasn't able to offer much to the ruling families of Volantis there wouldn't have been any incentive for them consider such a match.

Keep in mind that the Free Cities (quite correctly) perceive the Seven Kingdoms as a backwater kingdom. Yes, Westeros is big but it has no infrastructure to speak of.

Oh, I think the Old Blood is made up completely of such families. Perhaps there are some few upstarts with a non-dragonlord Valyrian ancestry who grew rich through trade and could then join the club but the overwhelming majority of the Volantene ruling class must be descendants of Valyrian nobility, many of which who are descended from dragonlords.

That is another important factor. One assumes that incest-matches are still quite common/the rule among the Volantene nobility considering that they are much closer to the overall Valyrian customs than the Targaryens (and even they stuck to it), making it very unlikely that many nobles there would be willing to part with their sisters or daughters. Only spare women could be married to outsiders, and one assume that those were often used to form alliances between various Old Blood families rather than married into different countries.

One assumes Steffon might have 3-4 girls who met Aerys' criteria but their families eventually all (politely) declined.

Wasn't Tywin once in Lys on a mission for Aerys? Doe

Maybe the Blakcfyre/Brightflames Varys & Illyrio had something to do with the fact that Steffon found no suitable brides? Is it possible that they blackmailed or influenced the families that actually had suitable brides?

[Lord Varys]

8 minutes ago, Bironic said:

Wasn't Tywin once in Lys on a mission for Aerys?

I don't think those events are connected. There is no hint Tywin went to Lys late in Aerys' reign and Aerys only began searching for a Valyrian bride for Rhaegar in the late 270s, after Duskendale.  That whole thing was most likely also partially motivated by Aerys' paranoia. He did not only want a cousin with Valyrian blood as Rhaegar's bride but also an outsider who would not side with his many (real and imagined) enemies. The same kind of thinking got Varys into office around the same time.

8 minutes ago, Bironic said:

Maybe the Blakcfyre/Brightflames Varys & Illyrio had something to do with the fact that Steffon found no suitable brides? Is it possible that they blackmailed or influenced the families that actually had suitable brides?

I don't think they had that amount of power. Besides, what would Varys and Illyrio hope to gain from Rhaegar not marrying a Volantene noblewoman?

I can't make sense of their plans in that time. If they wanted to destroy the Targaryens why didn't they not make their move during the Rebellion to replace the Targaryens with the Blackfyres rather than the Baratheons? If Varys was manipulating events to cause the Rebellion Illyrio and the Golden Company would have known about that yet they did nothing.

And Varys just causing a civil war for fun doesn't sound like something he would do. It would just be destructive and could easily enough mean his own death (at the hands of the Mad King who suddenly blames Varys for the war) or at least the end of his power at court (under a king Rhaegar, Robert, or whoever else ends up in charge).

[Bironic]

2 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think those events are connected. There is no hint Tywin went to Lys late in Aerys' reign and Aerys only began searching for a Valyrian bride for Rhaegar in the late 270s, after Duskendale.  That whole thing was most likely also partially motivated by Aerys' paranoia. He did not only want a cousin with Valyrian blood as Rhaegar's bride but also an outsider who would not side with his many (real and imagined) enemies. The same kind of thinking got Varys into office around the same time.

I don't think they had that amount of power. Besides, what would Varys and Illyrio hope to gain from Rhaegar not marrying a Volantene noblewoman?

I can't make sense of their plans in that time. If they wanted to destroy the Targaryens why didn't they not make their move during the Rebellion to replace the Targaryens with the Blackfyres rather than the Baratheons? If Varys was manipulating events to cause the Rebellion Illyrio and the Golden Company would have known about that yet they did nothing.

And Varys just causing a civil war for fun doesn't sound like something he would do. It would just be destructive and could easily enough mean his own death (at the hands of the Mad King who suddenly blames Varys for the war) or at least the end of his power at court (under a king Rhaegar, Robert, or whoever else ends up in charge).

Yes I think that Tywins voyage was most likely unrelated to the marrriage plans.

Well maybe they didn't want for Rhaegar to marry at all. So they tried to hinder the marriage plans where they could: in Essos.

Thought about that RR as well, Varys actions are hard to understand, which is great. If Aegon VI is really Serra Blackfyre and Illyrios son he was probably too young. The lords in Westeros would be less likely to support an infant, better wait until he is grown up and your own powerbase is bigger, due to Varys' long service in KL.

[Lord Varys]

20 minutes ago, Bironic said:

Thought about that RR as well, Varys actions are hard to understand, which is great. If Aegon VI is really Serra Blackfyre and Illyrios son he was probably too young. The lords in Westeros would be less likely to support an infant, better wait until he is grown up and your own powerbase is bigger, due to Varys' long service in KL.

The idea that Serra is descended from the Blackfyres makes little sense, in my opinion. Illyrio (and Varys most likely as well) are the Targaryen descendants. They need a reason and a motivation as to why they would involve themselves in Westerosi affairs at all.

And since it falls Illyrio to direct the Golden Company in the plan it is very likely the man is not only a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre but also a descendant of Aegor Rivers and Daemon Blackfyre (through Daemon's eldest daughter, Calla Blackfyre, who we know was betrothed to Bittersteel).

If the line goes through Illyrio the man could have invaded Westeros with the Golden Company. He most likely wasn't all that fat fifteen years ago and we know he was also a capable warrior and quite handsome in his youth. If they had played their card right they could have helped the rebels and set themselves up as their leaders, preventing anybody from declaring for Robert. That could have worked.

[Bironic]

17 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that Serra is descended from the Blackfyres makes little sense, in my opinion. Illyrio (and Varys most likely as well) are the Targaryen descendants. They need a reason and a motivation as to why they would involve themselves in Westerosi affairs at all.

And since it falls Illyrio to direct the Golden Company in the plan it is very likely the man is not only a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre but also a descendant of Aegor Rivers and Daemon Blackfyre (through Daemon's eldest daughter, Calla Blackfyre, who we know was betrothed to Bittersteel).

If the line goes through Illyrio the man could have invaded Westeros with the Golden Company. He most likely wasn't all that fat fifteen years ago and we know he was also a capable warrior and quite handsome in his youth. If they had played their card right they could have helped the rebels and set themselves up as their leaders, preventing anybody from declaring for Robert. That could have worked.

If they are Targs why do they not support Viserys or Daenerys though? And why do they have influence over the GC, which is traditionally a Blackfyre ally?

AFAIK Bittersteel never had issue. Not sure if I get you right is Illyrio now a targ or descendant of Daemon & Bittersteel? or both?

Maybe they were surprised by Robert's early success and didn't have the time to move before RR was already over.