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What if Mel sacrifices Shireen to revive Jon, thinking Stannis dead, while he actually lives (and conquers Winterfell)


The Snow Bear

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We still have to wait one or two decades for WoW. Time for some spitballing!

Most already is in my contender for longest topic title in the forum. I think almost no one believes that Jon will stay dead. With Melisandre at Castle Black and Shireen in reach, many think that the sacrifice of her royal blood by red god magic will be the means to facilitate Jons rebirth. 

Based on the way they are characterised in the books I don't see any possibility for Mel to kill Shireen while Stannis still lives. Thus Stannis' dead would have to preempt Jons resurrection. 

But what if Melisandre just thinks that Stannis is dead?

I'd think of a plot like Mel asking the fire about Stannis after reading the pink letter but only seeing snow, then directly asking wether Azor Ahai lived and getting a no. So Mel desire to sacrifice Shireen either to revive Jon directly or to resurrect AA leading to revive Jon indirectly. So Jon, now freed from his vows, rides against Winterfell. But there he doesn't meet Rose but Stannis who won the battle of the frozen river trap and with some Northern help conquered WF. 

What would Stannis do?

Would  he make peace with man who only lived because of the brutal murder of his child?

Would he atack Jons makeshift army?

What would happen to Mel (if Jon hadn't already punished her)? 

Would Stannis burn her? Would he find some 'just' punishment like he did with Davos?

Would Jon be willing and able to protect Mel?

What would the Northerners do?

Would they  shift allegiance or stand with the man they just had fought a glorious battle with?

Would they see Jon as The Neds (bastard) /son or as a nightswatch deserter?

Would they want him as king of the North or even of the whole seven kingdoms?

 

 

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I don't see why Stannis should blame Jon. It's not like he asked to be revived through sacrificing anyone.

I could imagine that Jon sends Mel away before Stannis can deal with her. That'd be a lovely parallel to Ned trying to send away Cersei and her children before Robert can deal with them.

I'm also pretty sure that the North would ally with Jon. That doesn't mean they have to turn on Stannis though.

1 hour ago, The Snow Bear said:

We still have to wait one or two decades for WoW.

I love your optimism.

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You don't need to kill anyone to revive someone. See Thoros & Beric case.

Of course the implications of resurrection by a queer, foreign red god, are far reaching. Probably we will get the foreshadowing that the world post-ADOS will have lots of religious conflicts.

Poor Shireen is unfortunately posed to feed the flames and probably Stannis will allow it to prevent the Others breaching the Wall, or to hatch the dragon egg of Winterfell or whatever, but the greyscale will have some weird effect in the sacrifice and things will not work as expected.

Mel anyway already grasped the full meaning of the Pink Letter. Why did she leave so quickly? My guess was to free Ghost. But there have been lots of weird movements in and around Castle Black that day.

 

 

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HiTo answer the questions in the OP...

1. I don't believe Stannis would blame Jon. Jon would not have had anything to do with the mens rea of Shireen's murder. If anything, he might be relieved to learn that Jon is destined to save humanity from the Others. 

Stannis needs every swinging d@$! to stand against the Others and march south, so unless Jon fights him Stannis is not going to attack Jon. 

2. I wonder about this too. I could see Melisandre and Selyse despairing over Stannis's apparent defeat and death, and then burning Shireen (poor Shireen) to death in some desperate gambit to rouse Stannis. Since death can pay for life, maybe they will end up resurrecting Jon, and when Stannis gets back to the Wall he'll be pissed and burn Melisandre to death. But with Jon at Castle Black, he might go south to confront the other claimants. 

Wouldn't this be sweet...

Quote

 

“They will not.” Melisandre’s voice was soft. “I am sorry, Your Grace. This is not an end. More false kings will soon rise to take up the crowns of those who’ve died.”

“More?”Stannis looked as though he would gladly have throttled her.

 

Is it possible that the fate of Serala, the Lace Serpent of Duskendale, foreshadows the fate of Melisandre?

Quote

The queen's men might remain fervent followers of the Lord of Light, but the lesser folk of Dragonstone were drifting back to the gods they'd known all their lives. They said Stannis was ensorceled, that Melisandre had turned him away from the Seven to bow before some demon out of shadow, and . . . worst sin of all . . . that she and her god had failed him. And there were knights and lordlings who felt the same.

Davos V, Storm 54

Quote

 

"In Duskendale they love Lord Denys still, despite the woe he brought them. 'Tis Lady Serala that they blame, his Myrish wife. The Lace Serpent, she is called. ... The Lace Serpent filled her husband's ear with Myrish poison, they say, until Lord Denys rose against his king and took him captive. ...

... "Once Lord Denys lost his hostage, he opened his gates and ended his defiance rather than let Lord Tywin take the town. He bent the knee and begged for mercy, but the king was not of a forgiving mind. Lord Denys lost his head, as did his brothers and his sister, uncles, cousins, all the lordly Darklyns. The Lace Serpent was burned alive, poor woman, though her tongue was torn out first, and her female parts, with which it was said that she had enslaved her lord. Half of Duskendale will still tell you that Aerys was too kind to her."

 

Brienne II, Feast 9

I suppose being burned alive would be a fitting end for Melisandre.

3. I expect the surviving Northmen will follow Manderly's lead. And like Cregan Stark, Stannis will lead a ragged host of Northmen south to war rather than die in Winter. 

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I definitely subscribe to the theory that Melisandre will believe that the Pink Letter is true. There was enough "secret" information in the letter to likely convince Mel that, indeed, Stannis is dead. But I believe that she won't attempt to revive Jon, she will instead use Jon's funeral pyre as a chance to burn two people with King's Blood, and she will have Shireen(Baratheon/Targaryen Blood) tied to the pyre with Jon(KitN Blood). However, this will accidently result in Jon's re-birth(effectively a parallel to Dany's hatching of her dragons as she burned One Alive and One Dead). Melisandre will see this and realize that she misinterpreted the Flames. Jon, I believe, will be re-born as a hardened leader, and when Stannis demands her death Jon will tell the "King" no, basically overruling him In a similar manner in which he did with Davos in the GoT Show . Only the significance of Jon overruling Stannis will be symbolic for the tone of Jon's march south. In the show he rides south to take back Winterfell and save his sister, but in the book I believe he rides south instead to not enlist but command the Lords to march north with him. He will do so with the same tone he uses to bring Stannis under his command.

This is just what I believe will happen, so Stannis will come back north to Castle Black as a King, but will march south behind Jon as one of Jon's advisors. Jon may end up leaving Melisandre at Castle Black as he rides south to rally the realm.

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I dont think Jon will be burned.  He doesnt have the fire magic that Dany does, She was specifically fireproof to hatch the dragon eggs.  If JOn's body gets burned, there will be no more Jon.  Plus what is the procedure for burial for Starks or Men of the Night's Watch? It's not burning, that's only what Targs do.  Mel does burn live people as a sacrifice.  But no one knows Jon is Rhaegar's son except us, so no one would plan on burning his dead body.  So like, there is no in-book reason for them to burn him.  

But yeah Mel will most likely burn Shireen.

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To the OP; 

How can Stannis possibly get mad at anything Mel does? He's fine with burning his wife's brother but not his daughter?  He set the stage with all this 'it's ok to burn people for the greater good' crap.  So now he has to live with his what he unleashed as 'acceptable behavior' to place himself on the throne.

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11 minutes ago, Suzanna Stormborn said:

To the OP; 

How can Stannis possibly get mad at anything Mel does? He's fine with burning his wife's brother but not his daughter?  He set the stage with all this 'it's ok to burn people for the greater good' crap.  So now he has to live with his what he unleashed as 'acceptable behavior' to place himself on the throne.

His wife's brother betrayed him. Alister Florent was gonna die one way or another. 

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12 minutes ago, Suzanna Stormborn said:

I dont think Jon will be burned.  He doesnt have the fire magic that Dany does, She was specifically fireproof to hatch the dragon eggs.  If JOn's body gets burned, there will be no more Jon.  Plus what is the procedure for burial for Starks or Men of the Night's Watch? It's not burning, that's only what Targs do.  Mel does burn live people as a sacrifice.  But no one knows Jon is Rhaegar's son except us, so no one would plan on burning his dead body.  So like, there is no in-book reason for them to burn him.  

Actually they would attempt to burn him, as that's what they've been doing with their dead at the Wall, as a precaution in case the Others can turn them. They don't know he's Rhaegar's, yes, but they do know that he's the son of Eddard Stark who has the blood of the Kings in the North. Kingsblood. They will only attempt to burn his body with Shireen, but he won't burn. He won't burn, and he will rise from the flames. Everyone who watches will freak the hell out, and they will be convinced he's some sort of god.

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4 minutes ago, Ser Daegon said:

Actually they would attempt to burn him, as that's what they've been doing with their dead at the Wall, as a precaution in case the Others can turn them. They don't know he's Rhaegar's, yes, but they do know that he's the son of Eddard Stark who has the blood of the Kings in the North. Kingsblood. They will only attempt to burn his body with Shireen, but he won't burn. He won't burn, and he will rise from the flames. Everyone who watches will freak the hell out, and they will be convinced he's some sort of god.

Did they?   Have they been burning all the other dead as well? I know they burned the pile of bodies after the attack on the wall.......I'm trying to think of another Nightswatchman who died recently at the wall.... IDK, the whole fireproof thing very rarely happens GRRM even said so, he also said not all targs are fireproof, dany's pyre was a one-time thing.  I'm not sure he will pull the same trick twice.

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1 minute ago, Suzanna Stormborn said:

Did they?   Have they been burning all the other dead as well? I know they burned the pile of bodies after the attack on the wall.......I'm trying to think of another Nightswatchman who died recently at the wall....

I'd have to look through aSoS and aDwD again to see if there's specifics, but Jon brought the practice of burning the bodies after seeing the Wildlings do it with all of their dead. Though they may have started that far earlier, after the Wight that attacked Jeor Mormont was finally stopped after Jon burned the tower.

They burned the Rangers that died on the march to Craster's after the battle on the Fist.

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9 minutes ago, Suzanna Stormborn said:

Did they?   Have they been burning all the other dead as well? I know they burned the pile of bodies after the attack on the wall.......I'm trying to think of another Nightswatchman who died recently at the wall.... IDK, the whole fireproof thing very rarely happens GRRM even said so, he also said not all targs are fireproof, dany's pyre was a one-time thing.  I'm not sure he will pull the same trick twice.

I think Brans vision of Jon lying on a bed of ice all memory of warmth fading foreshadows him being placed in the ice cells, not burnt.

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6 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I think Brans vision of Jon lying on a bed of ice all memory of warmth fading foreshadows him being placed in the ice cells, not burnt.

Yes exactly, I am much more inclined to believe Jon's rebirth will have more to do with Ice than Fire.  Plus IMO, the reveal of whose son he is and that he is the heir to throne is not due at the very beginning of WoW, that will come later.  And if he gets up and walks out of a fire it will in fact be revealed, since it's the same thing Dany did.

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3 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I think Brans vision of Jon lying on a bed of ice all memory of warmth fading foreshadows him being placed in the ice cells, not burnt.

It's possible that his body is kept there until they have his pyre built. That vision of Bran's was from his chapter in aGoT where he's still comatose from his fall. His visions shows Jon alone in a cold bed, not on a bed of ice. It was during his training to become a man of the Night's Watch. That vision also showed Bran what the rest of his family was doing right at that moment.

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8 minutes ago, Suzanna Stormborn said:

Yes exactly, I am much more inclined to believe Jon's rebirth will have more to do with Ice than Fire.  Plus IMO, the reveal of whose son he is and that he is the heir to throne is not due at the very beginning of WoW, that will come later.  And if he gets up and walks out of a fire it will in fact be revealed, since it's the same thing Dany did.

His rebirth in the fire wouldn't make them aware that he's the son of Rhaegar. They have no idea that Dany hatched dragons in a similar fashion. There's no way for them to correlate that connection. They would likely believe it to be some miracle orchestrated by Mel, however accidental it is, and knowing that Jon is undoubted of Stark blood they'll believe he is some sort of hailed god, the Last Hero come again.

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I really don't think it's going to happen.

A sacrifice has to have value to the person doing it, and Shireen doesn't mean much for Mel. That's Stannis will be the one to burn her when the time comes, to fulfill the prophecy, and ultimately achieve nothing, tragic character, tragic end, Agamemnon, yadda yadda yadda.

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14 minutes ago, Sullen said:

I really don't think it's going to happen.

A sacrifice has to have value to the person doing it, and Shireen doesn't mean much for Mel. That's Stannis will be the one to burn her when the time comes, to fulfill the prophecy, and ultimately achieve nothing, tragic character, tragic end, Agamemnon, yadda yadda yadda.

The significance is that Shireen has Kingsblood through her father's line. Stannis' body(As Melisandre will presume him dead outside of Winterfell) will not be anywhere around. She'll probably believe that she has to act fast if she has any chance of reviving Stannis. Remember, at this point Mel truly believes that Stannis is AAR, so her greatest concern will likely be a resurrection attempt by burning Shireen atop Jon's funeral pyre. She's got two different people, with two different lines of Kingsblood, so she should have two times the power. Or so she'll believe.

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What would Stannis do?

Stannis is very practical when operating. If Jon rides south to Winterfell to help Stan or recover it from the Boltons, Stannis will welcome him but will ask for Jon's allegiance at the end, recognizing him as the King of the Seven Kingdoms. This is when things get murky, since the northeners can crown whatever Stark pop up, even a legitimized Jon (Stannis did offer him that in the past). I think that if Stan leaves the north, he will lose it. 

What would happen to Mel (if Jon hadn't already punished her)? 

If Stannis gets a hold on her, he'll punish her (specially if she takes part in Jon's hypothetical coronation) for burning his daughter. The man always punish wrongdoings. No way around it.

What would the Northerners do?

A lot of things. But as I said, they will turn their backs on Stannis when he leaves the north (if he leaves it).

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