Jump to content

The Wex Pyke problem


Lord Varys

Recommended Posts

We have begun to discuss this thing in another thread, and I wonder what you make of the whole Wex story in ADwD. How did he find out where Osha and Rickon were going? How did he end up in the custody of Lord Manderly? How did the Manderly men realize he was an Ironborn and had something important to tell (the boy could neither speak nor write when they first met him)? How is it that Wex can be sure that Osha and Rickon actually are on Skagos? How did Osha and Rickon get to Skagos - presumably not from White Harbor or else Davos or some Manderly men could just catch the regular ferry to Skagos?

My idea is that he might have been caught by Osha and Shaggy and accompanied them for some time, before they were either separated or Wex was sent away. One assumes that Wex wasn't captured by the Manderly men as some suspect (after all, he could easily enough play the role of some dimwitted mute peasant) but rather sought them out and convinced them he had something to say.

Any thoughts on that?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We have begin to discuss this thing in another thread, and I wonder what you make of the whole Wex story in ADwD. How did he find out where Osha and Rickon were going? How did he end up in the custody of Lord Manderly? How did the Manderly men realize he was an Ironborn and had something important to tell (the boy could neither speak nor write when they first met him)? How is it that Wex can be sure that Osha and Rickon actually are on Skagos? How did Osha and Rickon get to Skagos - presumably not from White Harbor or else Davos or some Manderly men could just catch the regular ferry to Skagos.

My idea is that he might have been caught by Osha and Shaggy and accompanied them for some time, before they were either separated or Wex was sent away. One assumes that Wex wasn't captured by the Manderly men as some suspect (after all, he could easily enough play the role of some dimwitted mute peasant) but rather sought them out and convinced them he had something to say.

Any thoughts on that?

The Rickon-Skagos incident doesn't fit well with the whole story line. My guess is the following

- Rickon and Osha went to White Harbor for help (as suggested by Maester Luwin). Maybe they were found by the armies sent up to the White Knife.

- Wex went behind them and was captured. He is now working for Wyman. Maybe Osha told them he is ironborn.

- Rickon and Osha were sent to Skagos because Wyman realizes that after Black Water the situation will become desperate.

- Wyman has some business in Skagos of course, but there is no "regular ferry".  He cannot thrust all his captains nor the merchant ships. He also have few captains familiar with blue water operations, he specifically mentions that. The ship that was sent to Skagos didn't come back, there is mention of a ship wreck in the coast of Skagos.

- He needs someone like Davos for that operation.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

 

We have begin to discuss this thing in another thread, and I wonder what you make of the whole Wex story in ADwD. How did he find out where Osha and Rickon were going? How did he end up in the custody of Lord Manderly? How did the Manderly men realize he was an Ironborn and had something important to tell (the boy could neither speak nor write when they first met him)? How is it that Wex can be sure that Osha and Rickon actually are on Skagos? How did Osha and Rickon get to Skagos - presumably not from White Harbor or else Davos or some Manderly men could just catch the regular ferry to Skagos.

My idea is that he might have been caught by Osha and Shaggy and accompanied them for some time, before they were either separated or Wex was sent away. One assumes that Wex wasn't captured by the Manderly men as some suspect (after all, he could easily enough play the role of some dimwitted mute peasant) but rather sought them out and convinced them he had something to say.

Any thoughts on that?

 

Thanks for starting this thread. I had some thoughts after discussing this on the other thread with you.

It was suggested that Osha and Rickon were going to White Harbour. Wex followed them. For some reason (which I can't think of) at some point in the journey, perhaps close to or at White Harbour, Osha decides to head for Skagos. Wex either overhears them, or works out through some other means, that that's where they're going. That would explain how Wex got to White Harbour, he simply followed them there. How he was discovered by Manderly I have no idea, but there are any number of explanations for that. For one thing, White Harbour and the North generally are on a war footing, and strange people wandering about could easily be swept up by a patrol of soldiers. He may have simply made an attempt to communicate what he knows to the White Harbour men, as he probably knew the information he had was valuable and he might gain from that. 

I'm not convinced he actually "teamed up" with Osha and Rickon. It's made clear that he followed them, they never mention him joining them. That doesn't mean it didn't happen of course. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wex "tells" Manderly's men that after he manages to survive Winterfell he follows the 6 people and two wolves out. Then he for some reason decides to follow the smaller party when they split at some point. 

Robett Glover says Wex must have stayed downwind from the group because the managed to follow to direwolves without being noticed. So It's super unlikely he got close enough to hear Osha say she was going to Skagos.

And in ASoS Bran wonders if Osha and Rickon are in White Harbor or Last Hearth, so she never told him about Skagos, making it less likely Wex heard anything. So the only real way to know they were going to Skagos would be to follow them all the way to the coast and see them get on the boat. I assume Osha would steal a small fishing boat or something, she would go for as little contact as possible. 

With that in mind, I don't think Osha would risk some random dude tagging along, especially if she recognized him from the castle. I think he realized they were going to Skagos and figured the info might get him a meal and a cot somewhere. It is odd though that he would go to Manderly, who would be much further than other lords (assuming they left shore somewhere west or north of the Grey Hills.)

So, I guess my theory is that Wex followed them for quite a while, saw them get a boat and set out, surmised from where they were that Osha and Rickon were going for Skagos and figured this information would be valuable to someone. Wex doesn't know they are on Skagos, for all we know Osha noticed him, got on the boat, went a few miles up the coast to throw him and got back on land, but I don't think she did. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ah, the longstanding plot hole. One I like to ponder on periodically, with no real final resolution, as the variables are simply too many.

Do you believe in the Great Northern Conspiracy? Then the variables swing one way.

Do you believe in a much reduced, localized plot by the Manderlys? Then it swings another way.

Do you believe that Osha and Rickon could have made it safely to the Umber lands - despite having to pass the Bolton lands to get there? Then it swings a third way. And so on and so forth.

One thing I DON'T believe is possible under any circumstances, is Wex's tale as it stands. He could not have followed them undetected for long enough to gauge their destination. Furthermore, even if he overheard them mention Skagos early on as they were leaving Winterfell, this is by no means sufficient evidence for Manderly to base his plans on them actually having reached Skagos. Think about it. Between Winterfell and the Bay of Seals lies a thousand miles of wild Northlands, not to mention Bolton forces actively searching for Rickon. And even if they made it to the coastline, how could Wex even know if they managed to find a ship willing and able to take them across the water. And even if so, how could he know if they arrived safely?

We have Bran's vision of Shaggy killing a unicorn to confirm Rickon's presence on Skagos, but Manderly based on Wex's observations at Winterfell has no such assurance. It would be mad to act the way he did without more info to go on, or to a lesser extent, without having Wex follow them all the way to the Umber coastline and watching them depart on a ship in the direction of the Skagosi horizon.

No. Manderly's tale makes no sense whatsoever. It is a lie. And Wex is a tool used to give legitimacy to that lie. The motivation behind the lie makes little sense, however. Unless Manderly is protecting a third party who was involved in the deed, such as the Umbers.

Personally, I think Osha headed to the Umbers, who we know have new longships, and who are located the closest to Skagos of all the Northern lords. And they shipped Rickon to Skagos. And Manderly knows about it due to his alliance with them. But for some reason he does not wish to reveal this knowledge to Davos. But even this scenario doesn't make complete sense.

The big question is why Manderly is happy to share knowledge of his plotting and Rickon's location with Davos, but is unwilling to share the true story leading up to Rickon's arrival at Skagos with Davos. What could be so important about that latter, that it must remain secret even after he reveals the former?

It is a vexing mystery indeed, and only a generous approach keeps one from concluding that it is no more than a rushed plot contrivance from George, to get Davos involved in the Skagos storyline. Which would be sad, if it turns out to be true. But which certainly does not look improbable at this stage.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Any thoughts on that?

I also think that the Wex thing is a problem. Since you are undoubtedly more familiar with the novels than I am I don’t think it is necessary for me to elaborate on every detail.

CoK c.56 (Theon)  And I've had reports that Lord Manderly has sent a dozen barges upriver packed with knights, warhorses, and siege engines. The Umbers are gathering beyond the Last River as well.

CoK c.66 (Theon)  Into the teeth of that wind he rode, under the portcullis, over the drawbridge. The outer gates swung open to let him pass. As he emerged beneath the walls, he could sense the boys watching from the empty sockets where their eyes had been.

Ser Rodrik waited in the market astride his dappled gelding. Beside him, the direwolf of Stark flapped from a staff borne by young Cley Cerwyn. They were alone in the square, though Theon could see archers on the roofs of surrounding houses, spearmen to his right, and to his left a line of mounted knights beneath the merman-and-trident of House Manderly.

I provided those two quotes to show that there was a Manderly presence at and near WF when Ramsey returned from the Dreadfort. Thing of it is, I’m not good at guessing the passing of time in these books. What I mean is that I don’t know how long after Ramsey put WF to torch that Bran & company split up and left WF.

I suspect that Osha saw Wex hiding in the tree above Luwin and that she pretty much had him in tow the entire journey. I think she traveled south from WF toward White Harbor and was captured or gave up to Manderly men.

I also think that Manderly is lying to Davos about Rickon’s location; as in Manderly sent Davos on a wild goose chase. I think Manderly has Osha, Rickon and the wolf hidden somewhere up the White Knife.

Robett Glover is involved somehow. Rumor was that Glover had been in town trying to raise men and that Manderly refused him. Yet Glover was the one who led Davos through the secret passage to meet with Manderly.

Tin folly I know, but otherwise the Wex thing just doesn’t make sense to me. There is the possibility that when the chapter was written Martin rearranged stuff and made some errors; like when Manderly tells Davos he has a wedding to attend at WF. The lords were summoned to Barrow Hall or Barrowton and once everyone was there Roose decided that the wedding was to take place at WF.

Thanks for starting the thread.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I also think that the Wex thing is a problem. Since you are undoubtedly more familiar with the novels than I am I don’t think it is necessary for me to elaborate on every detail.

CoK c.56 (Theon)  And I've had reports that Lord Manderly has sent a dozen barges upriver packed with knights, warhorses, and siege engines. The Umbers are gathering beyond the Last River as well.

 

CoK c.66 (Theon)  Into the teeth of that wind he rode, under the portcullis, over the drawbridge. The outer gates swung open to let him pass. As he emerged beneath the walls, he could sense the boys watching from the empty sockets where their eyes had been.

 

Ser Rodrik waited in the market astride his dappled gelding. Beside him, the direwolf of Stark flapped from a staff borne by young Cley Cerwyn. They were alone in the square, though Theon could see archers on the roofs of surrounding houses, spearmen to his right, and to his left a line of mounted knights beneath the merman-and-trident of House Manderly.

 

I provided those two quotes to show that there was a Manderly presence at and near WF when Ramsey returned from the Dreadfort. Thing of it is, I’m not good at guessing the passing of time in these books. What I mean is that I don’t know how long after Ramsey put WF to torch that Bran & company split up and left WF.

 

I suspect that Osha saw Wex hiding in the tree above Luwin and that she pretty much had him in tow the entire journey. I think she traveled south from WF toward White Harbor and was captured or gave up to Manderly men.

 

I also think that Manderly is lying to Davos about Rickon’s location; as in Manderly sent Davos on a wild goose chase. I think Manderly has Osha, Rickon and the wolf hidden somewhere up the White Knife.

 

Robett Glover is involved somehow. Rumor was that Glover had been in town trying to raise men and that Manderly refused him. Yet Glover was the one who led Davos through the secret passage to meet with Manderly.

 

Tin folly I know, but otherwise the Wex thing just doesn’t make sense to me. There is the possibility that when the chapter was written Martin rearranged stuff and made some errors; like when Manderly tells Davos he has a wedding to attend at WF. The lords were summoned to Barrow Hall or Barrowton and once everyone was there Roose decided that the wedding was to take place at WF.

Thanks for starting the thread.

Nice. The idea that Rickon is not actually on Skagos makes the most sense of all. And that he is in fact hidden somewhere up the White Knife. The reason none of us has even considered this, is Bran's vision of Shaggy eating a unicorn. But if that could somehow be shown to be a deliberate Red Herring, the entire plot hole is resolved rather spectacularly. Then Manderly's mission could simply be aimed at getting Davos out of the way, and wasting his time while Manderly follows his real agenda of supporting Rickon to overthrow the Boltons. But to still not make an enemy of Stannis by killing Davos.

If Manderly really wanted Rickon from Skagos, then surely he would send a fleet of ships to fetch him. The Freys In White Harbor need not know where the ships are heading to. They could be pirate hunting, for all the Freys knew. To rely on Davos to recover Rickon seems a rather risky move from Manderly's perspective. And why would he need to smuggle Rickon out of Skagos? Why not just fetch him in straightforward fashion?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

It is a vexing mystery indeed, and only a generous interpretation keeps one from concluding that it is no more than a rushed plot contrivance from George, to get Davos involved in the Skagos storyline. Which would be sad, if it turns out to be true. But which certainly does not look improbable at this stage.

 

I think George was hoping people wouldnt look into this too much.  In any circumstance why would all these characters put so much faith and trust in Wex? Because he has good knife throwing skills? to make his delivery of the info that much more dramatic!  There is no way even the greatest hunter/tracker could follow the party with 1 or 2 direwolves undetected from WF to the coast, it is literally impossible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Nice. The idea that Rickon is not actually on Skagos makes the most sense of all. And that he is in fact hidden somewhere up the White Knife. The reason none of us has even considered this, is Bran's vision of Shaggy eating a unicorn. But if that could somehow be shown to be a deliberate Red Herring, the entire plot hole is resolved rather spectacularly.

I don't think it is, it's not like that vision makes anything obvious. I mean the casual reader is not going to even make the connection.  it's only mentioned once int he books that there are unicorns on Skagos right? and in the vision the only description we get is a goat with a horn, which is not the same as if it said the word 'unicorn', that would have been much more obvious.  I think you really have to take your time and reason out what the vision of Shaggy even means.  A red herring would be easier to figure out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@rotting sea cow

Sorry, your explanation doesn't make much sense. There is no reason why Wyman should sent Rickon and Osha to Skagos (rather hiding them in his castle like he later did with Davos and Wex) not to mention that it would be ridiculous if he did this without having a good means to get him back. He would hide Rickon at a place where he could get to him easily. Keep in mind that he also feels they need Shaggydog to prove Rickon is actually who he claims he is. If he ever had Osha, Rickon, and Shaggy in his grasp he would never have allowed them to go. In fact, we could be pretty sure that Wyman wouldn't even have gone to Barrowton and Winterfell in such a setting.

@Shouldve Taken The Black

I've just reread the last Bran chapter in ACoK. Luwin suggests the Umbers and White Harbor but we don't know whether Osha chose to take any of those directions. All we know is that she said she would leave Winterfell through the east gate and would follow the Kingsroad for a while - but we don't know whether she was going down south or up north.

Bran and the Reeds went up north, of course, but not on the Kingsroad, so they wouldn't have met if Osha had gone up north. We don't know she went for Skagos in the beginning - Skagos, White Harbor, and the Umber lands are all more or less east of Winterfell.

Robett Glover only speculates how Wex wasn't caught by Osha - this doesn't mean he wasn't. Neither have we any clue how Robett or Wyman caught the boy. Presumably because they do not tell Davos the full story of the boy - that's going to happen in later chapters, presumably.

The idea that Wex could have followed Osha and Rickon all the way to the coast all by himself is very hard to swallow. The boy could have found a little bit of food in the ruins of Winterfell, but that's it. He is Ironborn nor forester or huntsman, and even if he was without any gear he wouldn't have had success finding food. Not to mention that it would have been completely implausible to assume that Shaggy and Osha would never have realized that he followed them. He would have to be very close to overhear them talking about their destination outside of the godswood setting.

My idea would be that Osha definitely found out who and what Wex was but let him live just as she was allowed to live by Robb. She would have realized that the boy was afraid for his life, too, and could be a help on the road. After all, him being a mute would make it very difficult to rat them out even if he wanted to - which he would not, considering that he was Ironborn and Ramsay killed as his comrades at Winterfell.

Manderly men could only have caught Wex in the Hornwood lands or the Manderly lands but not at Winterfell - unless we assume that Wex stayed in the ruins of Winterfell for weeks with no reason. If some Manderly men returned to Winterfell to find out what happened there they would have done so quite some time after the battle. And there is no reason to believe they did because when Roose arrives at Winterfell squatters are still hiding in the ruins.

And there is also no reason to believe Wex would be recognized as or suspected to be some Ironborn unless he was stupid enough to run away with clothes, weapons, or other artifacts that identify him as an Ironborn. This makes it very likely that he approached Robett Glover or the Manderlys by himself, after he left Osha and Rickon. He might even have done as Osha asked because this could have been at a time when Osha still hoped to get the news about Rickon and Bran being still alive to Robb or Catelyn.

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Ah, the longstanding plot hole. One I like to ponder on periodically, with no real final resolution, as the variables are simply too many.

Do you believe in the Great Northern Conspiracy? Then the variables swing one way.

Do you believe in a much reduced, localized plot by the Manderlys? Then it swings another way.

Do you believe that Osha and Rickon could have made it safely to the Umber lands - despite having to pass the Bolton lands to get there? Then it swings a third way. And so on and so forth.

I think we should operate simply on the knowledge we actually have on the matter - and that's what we get from Wyman and Robett about Wex's story. The outset is pretty plausible in itself. But I find the idea that any (loyal) Northern would have ever allowed Rickon to get to Skagos of all places is insane. People need the Stark figurehead to rally around. They have to see him, not search for him, so the idea that anybody important was involved in Rickon getting to Skagos is very unlikely indeed.

The best idea I can come up with is some wildling-Skagosi smuggling operation along the east coast Osha is aware exists. The idea that she went through any official channels makes no sense as things stand right now.

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

One thing I DON'T believe is possible under any circumstances, is Wex's tale as it stands. He could not have followed them undetected for long enough to gauge their destination. Furthermore, even if he overheard them mention Skagos early on as they were leaving Winterfell, this is by no means sufficient evidence for Manderly to base his plans on them actually having reached Skagos. Think about it. Between Winterfell and the Bay of Seals lies a thousand miles of wild Northlands, not to mention Bolton forces actively searching for Rickon. And even if they made it to the coastline, how could Wex even know if they managed to find a ship willing and able to take them across the water. And even if so, how could he know if they arrived safely?

Indeed. That is why I assume Wex went with them and knew their destination from Osha directly. He may only have left when they took ship - and may have taken another smuggler ship to White Harbor from where he originally was supposed to go farther down south to get the news to Robb?

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

We have Bran's vision of Shaggy killing a unicorn to confirm Rickon's presence on Skagos, but Manderly based on Wex's observations at Winterfell has no such assurance. It would be mad to act the way he did without more info to go on, or to a lesser extent, without having Wex follow them all the way to the Umber coastline and watching them depart on a ship in the direction of the Skagosi horizon.

I forgot about that. Yes, that is as good a confirmation as we could hope for. I guess they could still be on Skane, but that's less likely.

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

No. Manderly's tale makes no sense whatsoever. It is a lie. And Wex is a tool used to give legitimacy to that lie.

I don't think so. You don't use some mute boy to tell a lie. Davos has no means to verify that Wex is Ironborn and has witnessed the stuff Robett and Glover tell him.

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The motivation behind the lie makes little sense, however. Unless Manderly is protecting a third party who was involved in the deed, such as the Umbers.

Personally, I think Osha headed to the Umbers, who we know have new longships, and who are located the closest to Skagos of all the Northern lords. And they shipped Rickon to Skagos. And Manderly knows about it due to his alliance with them. But for some reason he does not wish to reveal this knowledge to Davos. But even this scenario doesn't make complete sense.

It doesn't make any sense, actually. Why the hell would Hother and Mors endanger the Umbers by splitting up their men between Stannis and Roose? Why wouldn't they put an end to this Bolton regime by publicly revealing Rickon Stark to the North along with the truth that Ramsay Snow murdered Ser Rodrik and tried to murder Bran and Rickon?

That way the whole specter of a Bolton regime in the North would disappear like a shadow. Keep in mind that many Northmen are only following the Boltons for the sake of 'Lady Arya'. They think she is the real deal, and the only Stark that is left alive. If they knew better nobody had attended this travesty of a wedding at Winterfell.

15 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I also think that the Wex thing is a problem. Since you are undoubtedly more familiar with the novels than I am I don’t think it is necessary for me to elaborate on every detail.

CoK c.56 (Theon)  And I've had reports that Lord Manderly has sent a dozen barges upriver packed with knights, warhorses, and siege engines. The Umbers are gathering beyond the Last River as well.

 

CoK c.66 (Theon)  Into the teeth of that wind he rode, under the portcullis, over the drawbridge. The outer gates swung open to let him pass. As he emerged beneath the walls, he could sense the boys watching from the empty sockets where their eyes had been.

 

Ser Rodrik waited in the market astride his dappled gelding. Beside him, the direwolf of Stark flapped from a staff borne by young Cley Cerwyn. They were alone in the square, though Theon could see archers on the roofs of surrounding houses, spearmen to his right, and to his left a line of mounted knights beneath the merman-and-trident of House Manderly.

 

I provided those two quotes to show that there was a Manderly presence at and near WF when Ramsey returned from the Dreadfort. Thing of it is, I’m not good at guessing the passing of time in these books. What I mean is that I don’t know how long after Ramsey put WF to torch that Bran & company split up and left WF.

A few days, possibly less, considering that Maester Luwin yet lived. Ramsay didn't seem to spend much time at Winterfell.

15 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I suspect that Osha saw Wex hiding in the tree above Luwin and that she pretty much had him in tow the entire journey. I think she traveled south from WF toward White Harbor and was captured or gave up to Manderly men.

I also think that Manderly is lying to Davos about Rickon’s location; as in Manderly sent Davos on a wild goose chase. I think Manderly has Osha, Rickon and the wolf hidden somewhere up the White Knife.

That makes little sense. Manderly could act at once if that was the case. His son Wylis is back already, and he has no reason to go to Winterfell for the wedding if he has the new Lord of Winterfell under his protection. He could go with his army - and the army with some loyal allies of his to Winterfell to put down the Boltons. Instead he goes there and endangers his own life and possibly even the success of his plans.

He could also inform Stannis about all that actually have an ally to deal with the Boltons. The fact that he does neither of those things is a strong hint that he does not have Rickon in his care.

15 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Robett Glover is involved somehow. Rumor was that Glover had been in town trying to raise men and that Manderly refused him. Yet Glover was the one who led Davos through the secret passage to meet with Manderly.

Sure, that is a partially wrong rumor (Manderly didn't give him the men to retake Deepwood) yet they are obviously working together. And Robett is visible happy that Stannis has freed his brother's castle. He tells Davos as much.

15 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Tin folly I know, but otherwise the Wex thing just doesn’t make sense to me. There is the possibility that when the chapter was written Martin rearranged stuff and made some errors; like when Manderly tells Davos he has a wedding to attend at WF. The lords were summoned to Barrow Hall or Barrowton and once everyone was there Roose decided that the wedding was to take place at WF.

True, that is an error. One George should actually correct in future prints.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Nice. The idea that Rickon is not actually on Skagos makes the most sense of all. And that he is in fact hidden somewhere up the White Knife. The reason none of us has even considered this, is Bran's vision of Shaggy eating a unicorn. But if that could somehow be shown to be a deliberate Red Herring, the entire plot hole is resolved rather spectacularly. Then Manderly's mission could simply be aimed at getting Davos out of the way, and wasting his time while Manderly follows his real agenda of supporting Rickon to overthrow the Boltons. But to still not make an enemy of Stannis by killing Davos.

If Manderly really wanted Rickon from Skagos, then surely he would send a fleet of ships to fetch him. The Freys In White Harbor need not know where the ships are heading to. They could be pirate hunting, for all the Freys knew. To rely on Davos to recover Rickon seems a rather risky move from Manderly's perspective. And why would he need to smuggle Rickon out of Skagos? Why not just fetch him in straightforward fashion?

I think one should not discount the possibility that Rickon is not in Skagos, but hiding him elsewhere is also very risky, giving the political situation in Westeros after Black Water and Red Wedding. 

Besides the Bran's vision of the "unicorn" there are other clues that Rickon may be in Skagos. There is mention of a ship wreck out of the coast of Skagos. I think Sam saw it when traveling to Braavos, whose ship is that?

Also, Wyman Manderly mentions he doesn't have sailors with much experience in open seas. This may be a lie or not. A merchant ship captain may not best for this kind of operation. Or maybe he needs his seamen to command the warships for another operation.

1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

@rotting sea cow

Sorry, your explanation doesn't make much sense. There is no reason why Wyman should sent Rickon and Osha to Skagos (rather hiding them in his castle like he later did with Davos and Wex) not to mention that it would be ridiculous if he did this without having a good means to get him back. He would hide Rickon at a place where he could get to him easily. Keep in mind that he also feels they need Shaggydog to prove Rickon is actually who he claims he is. If he ever had Osha, Rickon, and Shaggy in his grasp he would never have allowed them to go. In fact, we could be pretty sure that Wyman wouldn't even have gone to Barrowton and Winterfell in such a setting.

 

 

You need to remember that Manderly was in a very precarious situation before Davos arrives as the Lannister hold his son and Tywin is threatening him to burn White Harbor. In fact, Davos provides him the way to "prove" his loyalty and get his son back. If he is discovered holding Rickon, he will be demanded to hand him away.

I know, details are sketchy but the whole Skagos incident reeks beyond belief.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

You need to remember that Manderly was in a very precarious situation before Davos arrives as the Lannister hold his son and Tywin is threatening him to burn White Harbor. In fact, Davos provides him the way to "prove" his loyalty and get his son back. If he is discovered holding Rickon, he will be demanded to hand him away.

I know, details are sketchy but the whole Skagos incident reeks beyond belief.

That is true, however he would then have decided to send him to Braavos, perhaps, or some other place he could easily get to. It is pretty obvious that nobody noticed that Rickon was in the city (if we assume he was what I don't believe) so the risk of the Lannisters learning about that were very small.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just can't get on board with any theory that Wex was just another part of their merry band. Even if Osha discovered him after they left Bran, I don't see any scenario where she's cool with the former squire of Theon Greyjoy tagging along.

As someone said above, it's not like he has any skills that would really help them, and I don't see her wanting an extra soul knowing where Rickon is going, even if they are a mute. I think this is also the reason she didn't go where Luwin reccomended, she doesn't trust anyone after all that's happened. And if she was cool with him traveling with them, I don't think she'd let him just up and leave with knowledge of where the Prince of Winterfell was. 

It's unlikely that Wex could tail them without the Direwolves finding him, but its unlikely that any of these people are even alive anyways. Stranger things have happened. 

I'm a massive Manderly fanboy and 100% believe in the GNC with him taking responsibility of leading the North in their darkest hour...but I don't know if Manderly has yet another trick up his sleeve in this case. He's got his son and is ready to roll on the Boltons but he needs some legitimacy. Some kid shows up claiming to know where Rickon is. Sounds dubious, but why not send some grunt out on a Hail Mary to see if its true?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Lord Vance II said:

 He's got his son and is ready to roll on the Boltons but he needs some legitimacy. Some kid shows up claiming to know where Rickon is. Sounds dubious, but why not send some grunt out on a Hail Mary to see if its true?

Indeed, that why I think Manderly is certain where Rickon is, whether Skagos or elsewhere. How Davos swallow that tale after all his years of smuggling, I cannot say.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Lord Vance II said:

I'm a massive Manderly fanboy and 100% believe in the GNC with him taking responsibility of leading the North in their darkest hour...but I don't know if Manderly has yet another trick up his sleeve in this case. He's got his son and is ready to roll on the Boltons but he needs some legitimacy. Some kid shows up claiming to know where Rickon is. Sounds dubious, but why not send some grunt out on a Hail Mary to see if its true?

Yeah. I think it’s the sort of thing anyone would follow up on, but it’s not necessarily the vital part of his plan. I think he’s clearly planning on carrying out his revenge on the Boltons and Freys, and the possible existence of a Stark heir would of course be a huge bonus.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is true, however he would then have decided to send him to Braavos, perhaps, or some other place he could easily get to. It is pretty obvious that nobody noticed that Rickon was in the city (if we assume he was what I don't believe) so the risk of the Lannisters learning about that were very small.

Well, maybe it is not so difficult to get to Skagos. Let's try to create an event timeline. Rickon, Osha and Wex are found./captured soon after they leave Winterfell by troops up in the White Knife. They are shipped to White Harbor where take sail immediately to Skagos for protection. Wex remains in WH. Manderly cannot further his plots until his son returns. Davos arrives and gets "killed". His son is returned. Now is time to take revenge, but Wyman needs Rickon back to counter fAyra and needs to make sure that Davos does not interfere so he's sent in the retrieving mission.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Lord Vance II said:

I just can't get on board with any theory that Wex was just another part of their merry band. Even if Osha discovered him after they left Bran, I don't see any scenario where she's cool with the former squire of Theon Greyjoy tagging along.

Just as the Starks didn't take the wildling butcher in who tried to murder Brandon Stark? If there is a person who might refrain from killing Wex after she found him it is Osha. After all, we are talking about a 12-13-year-old boy at that time.

Quote

As someone said above, it's not like he has any skills that would really help them, and I don't see her wanting an extra soul knowing where Rickon is going, even if they are a mute. I think this is also the reason she didn't go where Luwin reccomended, she doesn't trust anyone after all that's happened. And if she was cool with him traveling with them, I don't think she'd let him just up and leave with knowledge of where the Prince of Winterfell was.

Care to imagine how a single woman should be able to keep charge of a boy like Rickon? She has to sleep, gather food, prepare camp, etc. all while a wild and unruly boy controlling a growing direwolf is with her. That's not going to be easy. She can need all the help she can get.

Quote

It's unlikely that Wex could tail them without the Direwolves finding him, but its unlikely that any of these people are even alive anyways. Stranger things have happened. 

Well, unless Osha actually told Rickon where they were going (why should she?) Wex simply would have to follow them for weeks.

Quote

I'm a massive Manderly fanboy and 100% believe in the GNC with him taking responsibility of leading the North in their darkest hour...but I don't know if Manderly has yet another trick up his sleeve in this case. He's got his son and is ready to roll on the Boltons but he needs some legitimacy. Some kid shows up claiming to know where Rickon is. Sounds dubious, but why not send some grunt out on a Hail Mary to see if its true?

I don't what the GNC is these days but I don't see any reason to believe in a conspiracy that is mainly based on possibilities and speculations. The plot is not really affected by the conspiracy theory, making it exceedingly unlikely that it is a necessary plot element for George to get the story where he wants it to go. Not to mention that there very bad reasons given as to why Davos or Stannis cannot included in the whole thing.

You get this kind of thing when people have too much time to think about stuff. After AFfC it was the Grand Tyrell conspiracy theory and now it is this thing. That's most likely a dead end. Although elements - like Maege, Galbart, and Howland doing 'something' - most certainly will turn out to be correct. But I doubt they are very concerned with the whole political game right now.

And we should always keep in mind that the Manderlys may be Stark loyalists, but they aren't followers of the old gods. They could never hope to be the unquestioned leaders of a Northern coalition.

8 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Well, maybe it is not so difficult to get to Skagos. Let's try to create an event timeline. Rickon, Osha and Wex are found./captured soon after they leave Winterfell by troops up in the White Knife. They are shipped to White Harbor where take sail immediately to Skagos for protection. Wex remains in WH. Manderly cannot further his plots until his son returns. Davos arrives and gets "killed". His son is returned. Now is time to take revenge, but Wyman needs Rickon back to counter fAyra and needs to make sure that Davos does not interfere so he's sent in the retrieving mission.

Why would Manderly separate Wex from the others in such a scenario? Why wouldn't he sent one of his men to Skagos with Rickon and Osha? Why wouldn't he keep Osha here (who could actually talk) instead of Wex?

Why doesn't Wyman simply keep Davos in his dungeons? After all, it is nowhere written that he has to set the man free. He doesn't have to keep him occupied. After all, he just 'killed' him without asking for his permission, either. Stannis believes Davos is dead.

No, this kind of thing doesn't make much sense.

There is no reason to believe there is any connection between the Manderlys and the Skagosi. If there was Manderly simply wouldn't need Davos.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Why would Manderly separate Wex from the others in such a scenario?

To learn what happened in Winterfell

Quote

Why wouldn't he sent one of his men to Skagos with Rickon and Osha?

Probably he did but the ship never returned (shipwreck out of skagos)

Quote

Why wouldn't he keep Osha here (who could actually talk) instead of Wex?

Because Rickon trusts her more than anyone and can calm him and thus his wolf

Quote

Why doesn't Wyman simply keep Davos in his dungeons? After all, it is nowhere written that he has to set the man free. He doesn't have to keep him occupied. After all, he just 'killed' him without asking for his permission, either. Stannis believes Davos is dead.

Cannot answer this. The only reason is that he doesn't have too many sailors with open seas experience. He states that explicitly. Whether a lie or not I cannot say.

Quote

No, this kind of thing doesn't make much sense.

Sure, but the whole Skagos incident doesn't make much sense. I'm providing one alternative that doesn't require Osha knowing secret sea routes, explaining how Wex ended under Wyman's custody and knowing "enough" to convince Davos.

Of course Osha, Rickon and Wex could have gotten to the Umber's Last Hearth using the Long Lake east route (which is less watched) and then using Umber's long ships to Skagos. But then, how Wex ended under Manderly custody?

As you have stated, having Rickon immediately available (if he was confined in the Wolf Den for example) would mean that Manderly can raise the direwolf banner immediately after his son is returned and wage war against the Boltons in the Starks name. He doesn't have that option yet.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is the relevant passage for referrence...

Quote

"It was the Bastard who murdered Ser Rodrik and the men of Winterfell," said Lord Wyman. "He slew Greyjoy's ironmen as well. Wex saw men cut down trying to yield. When we asked how he escaped, he took a chunk of chalk and drew a tree with a face."

Davos thought about that. "The old gods saved him?"

"After a fashion. He climbed the heart tree and hid himself amongst the leaves. Bolton's men searched the godswood twice and killed the men they found there, but none thought to clamber up into the trees. Is that how it happened, Wex?"

The boy flipped up Glover's dagger, caught it, nodded.

Glover said, "He stayed up in the tree a long time. He slept amongst the branches, not daring to descend. Finally he heard voices down beneath him."

"The voices of the dead," said Wyman Manderly.

Wex held up five fingers, tapped each one with the dagger, then folded four away and tapped the last again.

"Six of them," asked Davos. "There were six."

"Two of them Ned Stark's murdered sons."

"How could a mute tell you that?"

"With chalk. He drew two boys … and two wolves."

"The lad is ironborn, so he thought it best not to show himself," said Glover. "He listened. The six did not linger long amongst the ruins of Winterfell. Four went one way, two another. Wex stole after the two, a woman and a boy. He must have stayed downwind, so the wolf would not catch his scent."

"He knows where they went," Lord Wyman said.

Davos IV, Dance 29

I think Wex is just a plot device. Here is the way this particular type of plot device is illustrated in Wikipedia...

The enemy spy who suddenly appears, defects, reveals the location of the secret headquarters, and is never heard of again would be an extreme example. Without this device, the hero would never find the headquarters and be unable to reach the climactic scene; however the character becomes less of a plot device if the author gives them a back-story and a plausible motivation for defecting and makes them an interesting character in their own right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...