The Wex Pyke problem

[Lord Varys]

@rotting sea cow

Oh, the Skagos thing as such certainly does make sense. Just pieces in the incomplete story they tell Davos doesn't make much sense. But we don't have to follow Robett Glover's speculation as to why Wex wasn't discovered by Osha and Shaggy when we don't even know yet how Wex ended up in the hands of Manderly men.

A lot of stuff there is unclear but not necessarily contradicting.

6 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

To learn what happened in Winterfell.

He could learn that from Osha, too. She also knows that Rickon and Bran are alive, and that the Boltons killed the Ironborn. There is no reason they would need Wex if they had ever talked to Osha.

6 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Probably he did but the ship never returned (shipwreck out of skagos).

The shipwreck could very well be the ship delivering Osha and Rickon there but my question was about Wyman actually sending some men of his with them to protect them and to decide what to do later on (say, just as Illyrio and Varys have Connington, Lemore, and Haldon with Aegon to represent them and adapt the plan if unexpected stuff happens).

If Wyman had men sent to Skagos with Rickon and Osha then he would not really need Davos right now. Not to mention that he would only have sent Rickon to Skagos if he had friends there he could trust - and that's a very unlikely scenario.

6 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Because Rickon trusts her more than anyone and can calm him and thus his wolf

Cannot answer this. The only reason is that he doesn't have too many sailors with open seas experience. He states that explicitly. Whether a lie or not I cannot say.

Sure, but the whole Skagos incident doesn't make much sense. I'm providing one alternative that doesn't require Osha knowing secret sea routes, explaining how Wex ended under Wyman's custody and knowing "enough" to convince Davos.

Of course Osha, Rickon and Wex could have gotten to the Umber's Last Hearth using the Long Lake east route (which is less watched) and then using Umber's long ships to Skagos. But then, how Wex ended under Manderly custody?

We don't have necessarily to go with the idea that Wex ended up at White Harbor intentionally. They could have been separated. I mean, there is no guarantee that whoever had the ship that brought them to Skagos did not try to sell them to the Lannisters. They must have known who they had there.

6 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

As you have stated, having Rickon immediately available (if he was confined in the Wolf Den for example) would mean that Manderly can raise the direwolf banner immediately after his son is returned and wage war against the Boltons in the Starks name. He doesn't have that option yet.

Yeah, but the idea is that he would have never sent Rickon to Skagos had he ever had the boy in his city. He would have hidden him so that he could use him as soon as his hands were untied.

[A Ghost of Someone]

The whole thing about Osha and Rickon going anywhere with a full grown pet Direwolf, is that it is noticeable. I mean, a pet of that size and nature will draw attention. I think there may have been more dialogue with Davos and who ever else before he went to "retrieve" them on Skagos. I think Wyman knows more about where they are and how to find them than we read in Davos's last POV in ADWD. Wex I am sure is going with Davos.

[rotting sea cow]

13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

@rotting sea cow

If Wyman had men sent to Skagos with Rickon and Osha then he would not really need Davos right now. Not to mention that he would only have sent Rickon to Skagos if he had friends there he could trust - and that's a very unlikely scenario.

We don't have necessarily to go with the idea that Wex ended up at White Harbor intentionally. They could have been separated. I mean, there is no guarantee that whoever had the ship that brought them to Skagos did not try to sell them to the Lannisters. They must have known who they had there.

Yeah, but the idea is that he would have never sent Rickon to Skagos had he ever had the boy in his city. He would have hidden him so that he could use him as soon as his hands were untied.

Well, a possibility is that Manderly sent them with the only captain he could trust and they are now stranded in Skagos. Of course, Manderly may have a few more sailors with open seas experience, but maybe he doesn't trust them? Maybe he needs them to command his war fleet with another purpose. There is also the theory that Starks have relative in Skagos so maybe is not a unlikely place.

The problem is Manderly couldn't know when his hands will be untied and holding Rickon nearby was risky. For all he knew the war was lost and his son was captive. He may need 20 years until the opportunity arises again. Davos "death" provided the opportunity to show his loyalty and get his son back.

Of course again, the whole incident was described in a relatively clumsy way. Let's wait 10 years for tWoW to answer this question definitively. ;-)

[Free Northman Reborn]

The thread has continued a bit in my absence, so I will note a few of my general responses to various earlier points raised.

Firstly to Lord Varys regarding why the Umbers would not act immediately and raise the Stark standard if they had Rickon in their possession - the answer is simple: The Greatjon. He is a hostage. Until he is released, they are forced to play both sides. Roose says as much in a Theon chapter.

So imagine if Rickon arrived in their lands, Stannis arrived on their Northern doorstep, demanding their fealty and on the brink of marching through their lands with an army if they refused. Bolton demands their fealty, backed by the Iron Throne who holds the Greatjon at Riverrun. What do they do? Well, they send Rickon to Skagos where, "only the Heart Trees know what goes on in Skagos". Incidentally, in this little reference by Roose, Martin subtly gives us a hint that the Umbers and Skagosi have closer links than perhaps the rest of the North, as he suggests that the First Night may be practiced still in both regions.

In any case, so the Umbers send Rickon off to Skagos. But now, a couple of books later, things have changed. And for some reason (probably because George needs to find a use for Davos as his POV character), they can't fetch him back again. Maybe something has changed on Skagos itself. Maybe the Skagosi have decided they want to use Rickon for their own purpose (which I have suggested before is focused on getting safe passage for their population to the mainland North before Winter connects Skagos via an ice bridge to the Haunted Forest).

No single Northern lord has the manpower to forcibly conquer Skagos - it took Winterfell years to quell a rebellion there just 100 years ago, at the cost of thousands of lives. So they inform Lord Manderly, as part of their pro-Stark conspiracy. And he resorts to a smuggler to try and extract Rickon where a naval fleet would have failed if it was attempted by force.

This scenario works equally for the Manderlys, who at the time of Rickon's escape had Wyllas held hostage, and had foreigners in their city. You don't hide a direwolf very easily. As for the suggestion that they should have sent him to Braavos. Come on. A direwolf. To Braavos? Seriously?

Lastly, far from doubting that a formal actor dispatched Rickon and Shaggy to Skagos, I think it impossible that a non-formal actor could have achieved it. The Shivering Sea is not exactly a hub of large naval vessel traffic. Other than the Watch, and the Umber/Manderly longships, I'm not really aware of any regular large ships in the area. And you certainly aren't transporting a direwolf on a small fishing boat. Besides, how would Osha pay for such a passage? And why would some shady smuggler even agree to take a beast like Shaggydog on board, especially if she had no money.

Nope. It has to have been either the Manderlys, Flints of Widow's Watch, or Umbers, in my view. One of those Houses sent Rickon off to Skagos, before he could be discovered in their lands by Bolton agents. But now the Skagosi don't want to give him back. And they need a new plan.

As for Wex. He was probably captured somewhere close to Winterfell by the Manderlys. And eventually used as a cover story. Either that, or his story is true and George just used him to push the plot to Skagos in a very rushed fashion.

[Lord Varys]

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The thread has continued a bit in my absence, so I will note a few of my general responses to various earlier points raised.

Firstly to Lord Varys regarding why the Umbers would not act immediately and raise the Stark standard if they had Rickon in their possession - the answer is simple: The Greatjon. He is a hostage. Until he is released, they are forced to play both sides. Roose says as much in a Theon chapter.

That is a valid point. But they could just sacrifice him. He is just one guy. The Smalljon is dead, but there are other sons of the Greatjon at Last Hearth one of which could become the next Lord Umber. We are talking about his uncles here, both rather old and very hard men. And by the way - Mors teaming up with Stannis certainly doesn't help the Greatjon, or does it? Yet this didn't lead to his immediate execution as far as we know.

But let's say I grant you that they are intimidated by this hostage routine and actually believe they could get their nephew back in one piece - why the hell do they actually send men to both Stannis and Roose, weakening themselves? Why don't they give both of them excuses and do nothing? They certainly should have been able to get away with that. In the meantime, they could work on this secret conspiracy of theirs.

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So imagine if Rickon arrived in their lands, Stannis arrived on their Northern doorstep, demanding their fealty and on the brink of marching through their lands with an army if they refused, Bolton demands their fealty, backed by the Iron Throne who holds the Greatjon at Riverrun. What do they do? Well, they send Rickon to Skagos where, "only the Heart Trees know what goes on in Skagos". Incidentally, in this little reference by Roose, Martin subtly gives us a hint that the Umbers and Skagosi have closer links than perhaps the rest of the North, as he suggests that the First Night may be practiced still in both regions.

There is no reason they should send a son of Eddard Stark's to Skagos. They could easily enough use such a child as figurehead by handing him to one of their many co-conspirators who doesn't have a hostage in the Twins. Like the Glovers or the Mormonts or whoever else. If they can send him to Skagos they could also have sent him to some other place.

In addition, you have to keep in mind that King Tommen is still working with the Starks. Lady Arya is the new Lady of Winterfell. Nobody ever granted Roose or Ramsay the title or the castle. Producing the rightful male heir of Lord Eddard and King Robb would not necessarily be seen as treason. In fact, if the Bolton betrayal of the Starks back when Winterfell was destroyed became public knowledge the Boltons could have been quickly ousted as the new de facto rulers of the North and the Iron Throne might even have supported that - because there was nothing they could do about the whole thing.

Cersei also didn't give a damn what the Lords Declarant did with Littlefinger as long as they did not intend to kill him.

The idea that the Greatjon would be killed just because the Umbers (or somebody else) publicly revealed Rickon Stark isn't very convincing to me. There is no treason in presenting a living Stark to the world, or is there?

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

In any case, so the Umbers send Rickon off to Skagos. But now, a couple of books later, things have changed. And for some reason (probably because George needs Davos to be his POV character, they can't fetch him back again. Maybe something has changed on Skagos itself. Maybe the Skagosi have decided they want to use Rickon for their own purposes (which I have suggested before are focused on getting safe passage for their population to mainland North before Winter connects Skagos via an ice bridge to the Haunted Forest).

You overestimate the passage of time between the end of ACoK and ADwD. Bran scarcely made it to Bloodraven in that time, suggesting that Rickon and Osha aren't very long on Skagos. In fact, considering they seem to be there in Jon's first ADwD chapter I'd say they have to have gone pretty quickly to the coast, possibly in a more or less straight line from Winterfell. And wherever they caught a ship they must have caught it pretty quickly.

There is also no reason to believe the Umbers or Manderlys have any clues what's going on on Skagos. If they did, there would be no need to use Davos. Why don't the Umbers go in some boat or small ship to Skagos?

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

No single Northern lord has the manpower to forcibly conquer Skagos - it took Winterfell years to quell a rebellion there just 100 years ago, at the cost of thousands of lives. So they inform Lord Manderly, as part of their pro-Stark conspiracy. And he resorts to a smuggler to try and extract Rickon where a naval fleet would have failed if it was attempted by force.

That is just an ad hoc explanation, I'm sorry. That's why too deep in speculation territory for me. Not to mention there would be essentially no reason to keep any of that secret from Davos. The man cannot talk to anybody while he is surrounded by Manderly's men.

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

This argument goes doubly for the Manderlys, who at the time of Rickon's escape had Wyman held hostage, and had foreigners in their city. You don't hide a direwolf very easily. As for the suggestion that they should have sent him to Braavos. Come on. A direwolf. To Braavos? Seriously?

The Freys weren't in White Harbor when Rickon escaped. Robb was still alive when Rickon escaped. And if Osha actually went to White Harbor she would have been there before everything was as fucked up as it is later on - or at least Lord Wyman had not yet known that his king and younger son were dead.

As to Braavos - why not? Ships can carry dragons why not direwolves? I did not say Manderly should say he has sent Rickon to Braavos (or another Free City) I just suggested he could have arranged that in secret. Just as Davos arranged Edric's journey to Lys.

Any place but Skagos would have been safer for Rickon.

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Lastly, far from doubting that a formal actor despatched Rickon and Shaggy to Skagos, I think it impossible that a non-formal actor could have achieved it. The Shivering Sea is not exactly a hub of large naval vessel traffic. Other than the Watch, and the Manderly longships, I'm not really aware of any regular large ships in the area. And you certainly aren't transporting a direwolf on a small fishing boat. Besides, how would Osha pay for such a passage? And why would some shady smuggler even agree to take a beast like Shaggydog on board, especially if she had no money.

I don't know but considering that we don't yet know how George is going to spin this we cannot just assert that they could only get to Skagos via White Harbor or some (speculative) Umber or Flint harbor. This is an important plot line and he can certainly introduce new plot elements on the fly as he is prone to do. The fact that Rickon and Osha seem to have gotten alive to Skagos isn't evidence for some far-reaching conspiracy.

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Nope. It has to have been either the Manderlys, Flints of Widow's Watch, or Umbers, in my view. One of those Houses sent Rickon off to Skagos, before he could be discovered in their lands by Bolton agents. But now the Skagosi don't want to give him back. And they need a new plan.

Especially the last point is very odd. Not so much time has passed (see above) and why the hell shouldn't they want to give him up? How are they even communication with those Skagosi? Apparently there are no maesters on that island.

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for Wex. He was probably captured somewhere close to Winterfell by the Manderlys. And eventually used as a cover story. Either that, or his story is true and George just used him to push the plot to Skagos in a very rushed fasion.

There is no need for a cover story. Davos was at Lord Wyman's mercy. He could just have said to him 'you go to Skagos because I say so'. Not to mention that Wex effectively is no cover story at all. Davos doesn't know the boy and has no way of verifying anything Manderly tells him.

Wex is a plot device that explains to the reader why Lord Wyman knows where Rickon is. We, the readers, know the boy. Davos has no clue who the lad is.

And thus it is very unlikely indeed that the one single element which is definitely true in this whole story (Wex being there at Winterfell when the Starks emerged from the crypts) is part of some conspiracy to obscure the truth.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

Well, a possibility is that Manderly sent them with the only captain he could trust and they are now stranded in Skagos. Of course, Manderly may have a few more sailors with open seas experience, but maybe he doesn't trust them? Maybe he needs them to command his war fleet with another purpose. There is also the theory that Starks have relative in Skagos so maybe is not a unlikely place.

If Lord Wyman cannot trust (many of) his own men he should better not try to turn against Roose. And we know he must have men he can trust. Who do you think killed and butchered the three Freys and baked them into three pies? Lord Wyman didn't do that all by himself. And if he wants to betray Roose and eventually join Stannis he cannot do that if he can't trust his men, either.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

The problem is Manderly couldn't know when his hands will be untied and holding Rickon nearby was risky. For all he knew the war was lost and his son was captive. He may need 20 years until the opportunity arises again. Davos "death" provided the opportunity to show his loyalty and get his son back.

That depends when exactly Rickon reached Manderly. If Wex was captured near Winterfell Osha and Rickon could have been captured there, too, and would thus have reached White Harbor a lot quicker than if they went there on foot. Just keep in mind how much time passed in the South in the same time - Robb returning to Riverrun, the negotiations with the Freys, the slow crawl to the Twins, etc.

Rickon and Osha could easily enough have been there (or with any other loyalist Northern house) long before the Red Wedding. And only after the Red Wedding is there any good reason why Rickon Stark should have been hidden. While Robb was still alive he could have been used as a tool to bring about the downfall of Ramsay and House Bolton.

[Clegane'sPup]

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The reason none of us has even considered this, is Bran's vision of Shaggy eating a unicorn.

The quote about Shaggy is in DwD  c.3 (Jon). I am aware that the debate will continue until WoW is released and Rickon’s location is revealed. Me personally, I see no reference to a unicorn in the sentence. I see a reference to a goat.

To give a bit of visual. Think about momma direwolf dead in the snow with, “A foot of shattered antler, tines snapped off, all wet with blood.” The antler was in momma’s throat. Horned animals head butt or move their heads left, right, up or down in defense. A wolf attacking a stag or ram will go for a leg, the throat or the back of the neck and in response the stag or ram will use its rack/horns to counter an attack.

Far off, he could hear his packmates calling to him, like to like. They were hunting too. A wild rain lashed down upon his black brother as he tore at the flesh of an enormous goat, washing the blood from his side where the goat's long horn had raked him. In another place, his little sister lifted her head to sing to the moon, and a hundred small grey cousins broke off their hunt to sing with her. The hills were warmer where they were, and full of food. Many a night his sister's pack gorged on the flesh of sheep and cows and horses, the prey of men, and sometimes even on the flesh of man himself.

This is a fantasy story with magic and mystical ramifications.  What does Bran think Summer thinks about that nice juicy elk Coldhands is riding? Sometimes Bran could sense the direwolf sniffing after the elk, wondering if he could bring the great beast down.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

12 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

The quote about Shaggy is in DwD  c.3 (Jon). I am aware that the debate will continue until WoW is released and Rickon’s location is revealed. Me personally, I see no reference to a unicorn in the sentence. I see a reference to a goat.

To give a bit of visual. Think about momma direwolf dead in the snow with, “A foot of shattered antler, tines snapped off, all wet with blood.” The antler was in momma’s throat. Horned animals head butt or move their heads left, right, up or down in defense. A wolf attacking a stag or ram will go for a leg, the throat or the back of the neck and in response the stag or ram will use its rack/horns to counter an attack.

Far off, he could hear his packmates calling to him, like to like. They were hunting too. A wild rain lashed down upon his black brother as he tore at the flesh of an enormous goat, washing the blood from his side where the goat's long horn had raked him. In another place, his little sister lifted her head to sing to the moon, and a hundred small grey cousins broke off their hunt to sing with her. The hills were warmer where they were, and full of food. Many a night his sister's pack gorged on the flesh of sheep and cows and horses, the prey of men, and sometimes even on the flesh of man himself.

This is a fantasy story with magic and mystical ramifications.  What does Bran think Summer thinks about that nice juicy elk Coldhands is riding? Sometimes Bran could sense the direwolf sniffing after the elk, wondering if he could bring the great beast down.

If it were antlers wouldnt the quote be 'horns' instead of 'horn'?  It stands out that the noun is singular and not plural, I think a lot of people have taken the meaning from that, myself included.

[Clegane'sPup]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That makes little sense. Manderly could act at once if that was the case. His son Wylis is back already,

Wylis wasn't released until after Manderly proved his loyalty to KL. Like I said, you know these books better than I. I don't like long conversations on the boards basically because I find the quoting function difficult to navigate

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, that is a partially wrong rumor (Manderly didn't give him the men to retake Deepwood) yet they are obviously working together

Robett Glover was in the city and had been trying to raise men, with little success. Lord Manderly had turned a deaf ear to his pleas.

I may be reading more into it than there actually is. I'm thinking story wise with the situation as it is in White Harbor Manderly denied Glover assistance and sent him upon his way. Part of the deception is that Manderly is loyal to the IT and Bolton.

If Manderly has Osha, Rickon and the wolf hidden somewhere up the river say in the mountains east of the river Shaggy could kill himself a goat.

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

Firstly, let's have some applause as I finally figured out how to quote in chunks, and respond to each separately. It only took me most of a decade on the board! Let's see if it works.

Quote

That is a valid point. But they could just sacrifice him. He is just one guy. The Smalljon is dead, but there are other sons of the Greatjon at Last Hearth one of which could become the next Lord Umber. We are talking about his uncles here, both rather old and very hard men. And by the way - Mors teaming up with Stannis certainly doesn't help the Greatjon, or does it? Yet this didn't lead to his immediate execution as far as we know.

But let's say I grant you that they are intimidated by this hostage routine and actually believe they could get their nephew back in one piece - why the hell do they actually send men to both Stannis and Roose, weakening themselves? Why don't they give both of them excuses and do nothing? They certainly should have been able to get away with that. In the meantime, they could work on this secret conspiracy of theirs.

They did enough to ensure the Greatjon doesn't get killed, while at the same time ensuring that House Umber would survive should Stannis win.

Quote

There is no reason they should send a son of Eddard Stark's to Skagos. They could easily enough use such a child as figurehead by handing him to one of their many co-conspirators who doesn't have a hostage in the Twins. Like the Glovers or the Mormonts or whoever else. If they can send him to Skagos they could also have sent him to some other place.

This is an interesting suggestion. The Glovers are a non-option, seeing as their castle is taken by the Ironborn. The Karstarks are traitors, the Hornwoods are weakened and vulnerable. The Flints of Widow's Watch and the Manderlys are reachable by sea, so probably a reasonable bet. But they seem to either fear discovery in the civilized North, or else they don't know who to trust. Granted, the Mormonts appear to be a good option too, but it could be that at this early stage no one is conspiring with anyone yet. Instead, chaos reigns, and they simply want to get Rickon to a place guaranteed to be off the map, and out of reach of the Boltons. Skagos is also the closest such place to the Umbers, and we know they just built longships with which to sail the Bay of Seals, so they have the means to get him there.

Quote

In addition, you have to keep in mind that King Tommen is still working with the Starks. Lady Arya is the new Lady of Winterfell. Nobody ever granted Roose or Ramsay the title or the castle. Producing the rightful male heir of Lord Eddard and King Robb would not necessarily be seen as treason. In fact, if the Bolton betrayal of the Starks back when Winterfell was destroyed became public knowledge the Boltons could have been quickly ousted as the new de facto rulers of the North and the Iron Throne might even have supported that - because there was nothing they could do about the whole thing.

Cersei also didn't give a damn what the Lords Declarant did with Littlefinger as long as they did not intend to kill him.

The idea that the Greatjon would be killed just because the Umbers (or somebody else) publicly revealed Rickon Stark isn't very convincing to me. There is no treason in presenting a living Stark to the world, or is there?

I don't understand what you are arguing here. They are at war with the Iron Throne. Their loyalty is to the King in the North. The Iron Throne by definition is an enemy of the King in the North. Not to mention that the Lannisters killed Eddard Stark, as well as his son Robb, and wife Catelyn, and according to their knowledge, also killed Sansa and forcibly married Arya to Ramsay Bolton. If they know only one king and his name is Stark, they would hide the last living heir in the most remote place they know, just like the Targ loyalists sent Daenerys and Viserys to Essos to escape Robert's agents.

Quote

That is just an ad hoc explanation, I'm sorry. That's why too deep in speculation territory for me. Not to mention there would be essentially no reason to keep any of that secret from Davos. The man cannot talk to anybody while he is surrounded by Manderly's men.

The whole Wex plot anomaly forces one to delve into speculative territory. Else it makes no sense. Anyway, the "why" behind the lies to Davos is the weirdest part of this issue indeed. As I said before, it only makes sense if Manderly has to protect a third party who was actually responsible for Rickon's safe passage. And the Umbers fit that bill, since they are still desperate to ensure the Greatjon's survival. It cannot be known that they protected the heir to the King in the North from the Iron Throne's agents.

Quote

The Freys weren't in White Harbor when Rickon escaped. Robb was still alive when Rickon escaped. And if Osha actually went to White Harbor she would have been there before everything was as fucked up as it is later on - or at least Lord Wyman had not yet known that his king and younger son were dead.

As to Braavos - why not? Ships can carry dragons why not direwolves? I did not say Manderly should say he has sent Rickon to Braavos (or another Free City) I just suggested he could have arranged that in secret. Just as Davos arranged Edric's journey to Lys.

Any place but Skagos would have been safer for Rickon.

When he escaped yes. But when did they find him? You yourself say not that much time has passed. We don't know the timelines involved, and the North is large. Especially large for a boy and single woman to traverse on foot, while hiding from enemies.

As for Braavos. Where are you going to hide a direwolf in Braavos so that it remains a secret? And who says they even have allies in Braavos? Braavos brings Rickon closer to the Lannisters' reach, and pretty much out of reach of the Northerners.

Quote

Especially the last point is very odd. Not so much time has passed (see above) and why the hell shouldn't they want to give him up? How are they even communication with those Skagosi? Apparently there are no maesters on that island.

The passage of time is not an issue here. Maybe the Skagosi never meant to give him back from the start. The Umbers were desperate, the Skagosi saw a chance of a lifetime (when have they ever had the heir to Winterfell in their grasp), and agreed to a deal which they never meant to live up to without setting certain additional "terms" once they had Rickon in their possession.

Quote

There is no need for a cover story. Davos was at Lord Wyman's mercy. He could just have said to him 'you go to Skagos because I say so'. Not to mention that Wex effectively is no cover story at all. Davos doesn't know the boy and has no way of verifying anything Manderly tells him.

Wex is a plot device that explains to the reader why Lord Wyman knows where Rickon is. We, the readers, know the boy. Davos has no clue who the lad is.

And thus it is very unlikely indeed that the one single element which is definitely true in this whole story (Wex being there at Winterfell when the Starks emerged from the crypts) is part of some conspiracy to obscure the truth.

Well the Davos cover story is the weirdest part of all of this, indeed. As I speculated above, it only really makes sense if the Manderlys are protecting a third party - namely the Umbers, in case Davos gets captured by the Boltons and is forced to spill his secrets.

The problem with Wex is, he could not know what the Manderlys profess him to know. And your theory also fails to explain their story. If he accompanied them willingly, the same question can be asked: Why is Manderly lying about it? There is even less need to deceive Davos about Wex's role in that scenario.

I am saddened to say that the more we unpack this, the more it looks like George just rushed this plot with Manderly's weak Wex story being the truth of the matter. But if there is some saving of it, then the Umber plotline probably makes the most sense.

There is of course another option. And that is that we are missing some crucial information that sends this off in an entirely new direction. Something dramatic and totally unpredictable. Which I hope is still the case. But which we by definition haven't been able to think of yet.

I think Martin has a dramatic and major Skagos storyline ahead of us. And that Rickon is the way in which he pulls Skagos into the bigger plot. It may be that in light of all of that, he really did consider the Wex story a minor patch to get fast access to a much more juicy storyline, and sacrificed believability to just get it done. I think he could still achieve that with the Umber plot as I outlined above. And that he will retro-correct the weak Wex story with some patchwork similar to what I outlined, to make it more believable.

Or maybe not.

[Clegane'sPup]

14 minutes ago, Suzanna Stormborn said:

If it were antlers wouldnt the quote be 'horns' instead of 'horn'?  It stands out that the noun is singular and not plural, I think a lot of people have taken the meaning from that, myself included.

Not necessarily.

A wild rain lashed down upon his black brother as he tore at the flesh of an enormous goat, washing the blood from his side where the goat's long horn had raked him.

Mountain goats usually have two horns. The goat raked Shaggy with a horn.

[Seams]

This may just muddy the waters, but I think Wex Pyke is part of some of the larger symbolic motifs in the books.

For instance, I am pretty sure that the "Ironborn" are often human weapons. Elsewhere in the forum, I outlined why I think Theon symbolizes the sword Ice. We see Theon's sister, Asha, catching an ax that is thrown the length of a feast table and she calls the ax her husband. Then she pulls a dirk out of her shirt and says it is her suckling babe. (Don't forget that Theon once muses about how much the name Osha sounds like Asha.)

Wex uses a dagger to carve letters into wood when he is asked to write. He also throws and catches the knife. Why not just hand the kid another piece of chalk to demonstrate that he can write? Because there's some kind of symbolism involved in writing his name with a blade, possibly taking us back to the author's pun around sword / words.

Keep in mind, too, that Wex and Davos are the two people we see learning to read and write in the series. We see other characters destroy books (Roose, Joffrey and whoever set fire to the Winterfell library) but only these two becoming literate. I suspect this is deliberate and will be significant in some way.

There is a sort of pattern among squires of trying to save the knight or lord who is served. Podrick Payne wants to find and serve Tyrion (but ends up serving Brienne as a means of looking for Tyrion) and the Dunk & Egg stories show Egg helping to keep Ser Duncan safe in some tenuous moments. I suspect that Wex's motive in following Rickon and Osha is to make sure he will know how to find at least one of the Stark boys, so he can prove that Theon did not kill them. Once he can't follow any further, or he thinks he knows where Rickon will stop his journey, he turns back to the Manderlys because they are the people who can save Theon if they know that a Stark heir is alive.

Other important symbolism in Wex's character and story is that his eyes look older than he is and that he climbs and observes important events from the Winterfell heart tree. He is being compared to Bran, right? Someone who looks at things from the weirwood tree? How often did he climb the tree, and how many other things did he observe from the tree? He may know that Bran is a greenseer - the Reeds had some conversations with Bran in the gods wood.

Theon "acquired" Wex as a condition of being allowed to buy a beautiful horse from Lord Botley. We are told that the Ironborn don't care about or use horses much, but this stunningly beautiful horse came from an old house from the Iron Islands, fwiw. I haven't quite worked out the symbolism yet, but I suspect that horses and thrones are linked symbols. (Keep in mind the tomb of King Tristifer at Oldstones, where Robb and Catelyn have a conversation, and Asha's old friend Tristifer Botley who remains devoted to her.) Theon's horse catches fire (actually I think the horse's mane catches fire just as Theon is about to lose his name - so there may be a mane / name pun to work out) but Wex is Ironborn - a weapon - and fire doesn't harm him. It wouldn't make sense in real life, but "Wex as blade" might also explain why the direwolf doesn't smell Wex following Rickon and Osha - he's a knife, not a person.

If there is a hidden conspiracy in this arc, one possibility is that Osha is kidnapping Rickon for her own agenda, not to keep him safe as an heir of Winterfell. Mormont talks about needing Stark blood and a Stark wolf to go beyond the Wall. Maybe Osha has a similar strategy and sees Rickon and Shaggy as her best options.

Why shouldn't the wildlings have factions, just as people do below the Wall? When Bran shows her the tombs of the Kings of Winter, Osha tells Bran that "Winter has no king." This seems to contradict the reverence that other free folk show for Starks. Also, we know that Winterfell has been infiltrated by wildlings several times over the years. How do we know that Osha didn't deliberately hook up with the little group of wildlings and the deserter in the hope of somehow getting into the castle? Granted, it was a lucky break for her that Robb decided to spare her life when Theon urged that she be killed. People have already pointed out that Robb sparing Osha's life can be compared to Jon sparing Ygritte's life. Are there other details of Ygritte's function in Jon's story that hint at what we can expect from Osha?

Another possible hidden conspiracy is that someone wants Davos to go to Skagos, for reasons unrelated to retrieving Rickon. His origins are mysterious. I suspect Melisandre knows more about his "blood" than she has let on.

[Whitering]

Osha was south of the Wall not to raid, but because of the Others. She knows what's coming, having an actual ruler in the North is a good thing. I guess she could just hope the whole thing passed Skaagos by but she never seemed that stupid.

The reason I think they actually went to Skaagos is that I do not believe it is an island of cannibals, in the same way Iceland was purposely PRed to be an unlivable hell hole to keep people away from it. I assume the wildlings trade with the Skaagosi.

[Baseborn Manjack]

I agree with the plot device explanation. It's not so incredibly far-fetched that Wex's story is true. He impresses Theon with his cunning during the tracking mission with Ramsay, so it's established he's got brains & skills with tracking. The direwolves acknowledge themselves in a couple of places that downwind scents escape them, and as to how Wex got to Manderly..... there's a lot of plausible ways. My head cannon says he mingled in with the refugees entering the city, joined a spearman's battalion, & got the attention of his Sargent with his trusty chalk & doodling skills.

[aryagonnakill#2]

By best guess is that most of the story is true, but that it is their interpretation of how Wex knows where they went, or Wex lied to make it seem like he knew for sure so as to seem useful, or Manderly lied about how Wex knows to make Davos think they are more sure about Rickons location so Davos agrees and does not think it's a wild goose chase.

What I mean by that is I think Wex overheard Osha's intention to go to Skagos and he himself went straight to Moat Cailin.  He is Ironborn and Theons squire, the last he would have heard would likely have been that Dagmer had left Torrhens Square, and did not know that he had retaken it.  So he knew that the Ironborn controlled Moat Cailin and headed there.  On his way he comes close to Manderly lands and gets caught.

This explains pretty much everything, with only 1 assumption having to be made which is that he overheard where they are going while still in the tree.

It explains how he ended up in Manderlies hands.

It eliminates the notion we all find ridiculous that he could have followed them without Shaggy knowing.

It explains how he knows where they went.

And it explains why Manderly does not already have Rickon.

It also provides a logical motive for Wex, which I believe any theory or statement of him following Osha and Rickon does not.  If you were Wex, wouldn't you head for where you knew Ironborn to be?

[Free Northman Reborn]

Just now, Baseborn Manjack said:

I agree with the plot device explanation. It's not so incredibly far-fetched that Wex's story is true. He impresses Theon with his cunning during the tracking mission with Ramsay, so it's established he's got brains & skills with tracking. The direwolves acknowledge themselves in a couple of places that downwind scents escape them, and as to how Wex got to Manderly..... there's a lot of plausible ways. My head cannon says he mingled in with the refugees entering the city, joined a spearman's battalion, & got the attention of his Sargent with his trusty chalk & doodling skills.

Fringe theory: There's no chance that Wex is the Faceless Man who killed Balon, is there? I can't recall the timeline anymore, but I presume he was with Theon at the time of Balon's death?

[Lord Varys]

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Firstly, let's have some applause as I finally figured out how to quote in chunks, and respond to each separately. It only took me most of a decade on the board! Let's see if it works.

It took we roughly about the same time. The way it goes you two new paragraphs and then the quote boxes split in two, magically creating to 'this guy wrote that this time ago' on those two boxes. 

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

They did enough to ensure the Greatjon doesn't get killed, while at the same time ensuring that House Umber would survive should Stannis win.

Well, if they serve the King in the North I don't see a good reason why they would even care about Stannis.

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

This is an interesting suggestion. The Glovers are a non-option, seeing as their castle is taken by the Ironborn. The Karstarks are traitors, the Hornwoods are weakened and vulnerable. The Flints of Widow's Watch and the Manderlys are reachable by sea, so probably a reasonable bet. But they seem to either fear discovery in the civilized North, or else they don't know who to trust. Granted, the Mormonts appear to be a good option too, but it could be that at this early stage no one is conspiring with anyone yet. Instead, chaos reigns, and they simply want to get Rickon to a place guaranteed to be off the map, and out of reach of the Boltons. Skagos is also the closest such place to the Umbers, and we know they just built longships with which to sail the Bay of Seals, so they have the means to get him there.

But again, why should they? Why not hide them somewhere in the Umber lands? Do you really think the Boltons could have found them there if the Umbers had out their energy into concealing them? Or that the Boltons couldn't have found out that they went to Skagos if they could track to the Umbers?

Your entire scenario seems to be without a good foundation. You don't give a good explanation why the Umbers should have been 'afraid'.

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I don't understand what you are arguing here. They are at war with the Iron Throne. Their loyalty is to the King in the North. The Iron Throne by definition is an enemy of the King in the North. Not to mention that the Lannisters killed Eddard Stark, as well as his son Robb, and wife Catelyn, and according to their knowledge, also killed Sansa and forcibly married Arya to Ramsay Bolton. If they know only one king and his name is Stark, they would hide the last living heir in the most remote place they know, just like the Targ loyalists sent Daenerys and Viserys to Essos to escape Robert's agents.

Only Lyanna Starks knows only one king whose name is Stark. None of the others say something of that sort. And no, a good deal of the Northmen acknowledge the Iron Throne and the rule of King Tommen - pretty much everybody who is with Roose right now. The North doesn't have the strength to actually fight against the Iron Throne but the Iron Throne also has little incentive to provoke another war with the North.

If an assembly of the Northern lords decided to oust the Boltons from power and proclaim Rickon Stark the new Lord of Winterfell the Iron Throne most likely would have no issue with that as long as they did not continue their whole secessionist thing. Keep in mind that Rickon is just 4-5 years old now. There would be a long minority council overseeing the North in his name, and if Cersei or the Lannisters intended to put him down they could also do that next spring. They have no need to rush things there.

In addition, you have to keep in mind that the best way to prevent the rise of new regime (i.e. the Boltons) is to prevent it before they can consolidate their power. Not attacking Roose by producing Rickon and proclaiming a rival Stark pretender before the Arya-Ramsay wedding takes place was a huge mistake. Now it will be much more difficult to depose the Boltons. It will become a bloody affair while in the other scenario Roose and Ramsay could very well have just sat alone with Lady Dustin and the Frey in an empty castle. And that would then have been the end of Roose's ambitions to rule the North.

You are the Free Northman guy. Most of the actual Northmen we meet in the books seem much more pragmatic to me than you think they should be.

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The whole Wex plot anomaly forces one to delve into speculative territory. Else it makes no sense. Anyway, the "why" behind the lies to Davos is the weirdest part of this issue indeed. As I said before, it only makes sense if Manderly has to protect a third party who was actually responsible for Rickon's safe passage. And the Umbers fit that bill, since they are still desperate to ensure the Greatjon's survival. It cannot be known that they protected the heir to the King in the North from the Iron Throne's agents.

How do you mean this whole 'protect thing'. Protect the Umbers from what? From Davos (who can't talk to anybody) from learning this? Why use Wex for that? Why not claiming that Manderly himself shipped Rickon to Skagos because the boy came to his city? That way nobody would even think about the Umbers. Nobody thinking about them or pointing in their direction anyway. Especially not Davos.

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

When he escaped yes. But when did they find him? You yourself say not that much time has passed. We don't know the timelines involved, and the North is large. Especially large for a boy and single woman to traverse on foot, while hiding from enemies.

Sure, but if we go with the assumption being tossed around that Wex was captured by Manderly men close to Winterfell Osha and Rickon could have found close to the castle, too. Not to mention that the White Knife and the ships on the river could provide them with a quick means to reach the city.

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for Braavos. Where are you going to hide a direwolf in Braavos so that it remains a secret? And who says they even have allies in Braavos? Braavos brings Rickon closer to the Lannisters' reach, and pretty much out of reach of the Northerners.

It doesn't have to be a secret. The Targaryens were safe in Braavos, too. The world does not consist of some large troupe of agents who want to kill the surviving Starks. You sound as paranoid as Viserys III ;-).

The news that Rickon Stark is still alive could even lead to many Northmen declaring for him and resisting the Boltons in his name. The way things are now pretty much nobody knows he is even alive (unless we stupidly assumes everybody knows but acts as if he doesn't for no good reason).

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The passage of time is not an issue here. Maybe the Skagosi never meant to give him back from the start. The Umbers were desperate, the Skagosi saw a chance of a lifetime (when have they ever had the heir to Winterfell in their grasp), and agreed to a deal which they never meant to live up to without setting certain additional "terms" once they had Rickon in their possession.

Again, the desperation thing makes no sense. No sense whatsoever, I'm sorry. If the Umbers were desperate why not give the boy to Stannis or Jon Snow at the Wall. That way they would have kept their hands clean.

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The problem with Wex is, he could not know what the Manderlys profess him to know. And your theory also fails to explain their story. If he accompanied them willingly, the same question can be asked: Why is Manderly lying about it? There is even less need to deceive Davos about Wex's role in that scenario.

But Manderly isn't lying about anything there. Wex tells them what he saw and where Osha and Rickon went but not what he did in thereafter. We get Robett speculating that he must have evaded Shaggy in the whole thing but that's just his guess. Wex never says anything about that. And we don't know why he told Wyman what he knows nor how he ended up at White Harbor.

As of yet those things are mysteries. And the conversation clearly wasn't over. Wyman had little time and only told Davos the core of what he needed to know. He and Robett most likely continued to talk to him after the cliffhanger reveal of Skagos at the chapter's ending was delivered.

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I am saddened to say that the more we unpack this, the more it looks like George just rushed this plot with Manderly's weak Wex story being the truth of the matter. But if there is some saving of it, then the Umber plotline probably makes the most sense.

I don't think this story was particularly rushed. If George wanted to rush things Rickon would have been 'the lad' Robett brought in, not Wex.

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

There is of course another option. And that is that we are missing some crucial information that sends this off in an entirely new direction. Something dramatic and totally unpredictable. Which I hope is still the case. But which we by definition haven't been able to think of yet.

I think Martin has a dramatic and major Skagos storyline ahead of us. And that Rickon is the way in which he pulls Skagos into the bigger plot. It may be that in light of all of that, he really did consider the Wex story a minor patch to get fast access to a much more juicy storyline, and sacrificed believability to just get it done. I think he could still achieve that with the Umber plot as I outlined above. And that he will retro-correct the weak Wex story with some patchwork similar to what I outlined, to make it more believable.

Or maybe not.

I'm with you here, I think Davos, Robett, Osha, and Rickon are about to have quite some adventures on Skagos. They might even end up tying directly into the Others story if they end up leaving the island to end up beyond the Wall rather than south of it. If George wanted to utilize Rickon as a political factor early on in TWoW he would have been in White Harbor, not on Skagos.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Quote

Well, if they serve the King in the North I don't see a good reason why they would even care about Stannis.

They care about Stannis because if they fail in restoring the King in the North, they at least want to be on the winning side, which Stannis still could be on. So he is a fallback option.

Quote

Only Lyanna Starks knows only one king whose name is Stark. None of the others say something of that sort. And no, a good deal of the Northmen acknowledge the Iron Throne and the rule of King Tommen - pretty much everybody who is with Roose right now. The North doesn't have the strength to actually fight against the Iron Throne but the Iron Throne also has little incentive to provoke another war with the North.

If an assembly of the Northern lords decided to oust the Boltons from power and proclaim Rickon Stark the new Lord of Winterfell the Iron Throne most likely would have no issue with that as long as they did not continue their whole secessionist thing. Keep in mind that Rickon is just 4-5 years old now. There would be a long minority council overseeing the North in his name, and if Cersei or the Lannisters intended to put him down they could also do that next spring. They have no need to rush things there.

In addition, you have to keep in mind that the best way to prevent the rise of new regime (i.e. the Boltons) is to prevent it before they can consolidate their power. Not attacking Roose by producing Rickon and proclaiming a rival Stark pretender before the Arya-Ramsay wedding takes place was a huge mistake. Now it will be much more difficult to depose the Boltons. It will become a bloody affair while in the other scenario Roose and Ramsay could very well have just sat alone with Lady Dustin and the Frey in an empty castle. And that would then have been the end of Roose's ambitions to rule the North.

You are the Free Northman guy. Most of the actual Northmen we meet in the books seem much more pragmatic to me than you think they should be.

The Greatjon is the leader of House Umber. He is the fiercest supporter of the King in the North in the entire Westeros. The Umbers' primary goal is not to restore a Lord in Winterfell. They want to restore a King in Winterfell.

In fact, other than the Bolton-Dustin-Ryswell-Karstark conspirators, none of the Northern lords willingly retracted their support for the King in the North. Even Manderly's story to Davos is the source of this entire thread's debate, so we don't really know where he stands.

As long as having a King in the North remains a goal, you have to agree that the motivation for the Umber actions changes drastically from what you propose above.

Quote

It doesn't have to be a secret. The Targaryens were safe in Braavos, too. The world does not consist of some large troupe of agents who want to kill the surviving Starks. You sound as paranoid as Viserys III ;-).

The news that Rickon Stark is still alive could even lead to many Northmen declaring for him and resisting the Boltons in his name. The way things are now pretty much nobody knows he is even alive (unless we stupidly assumes everybody knows but acts as if he doesn't for no good reason).

See, all of the above is based on the idea that Northern independence has disappeared off all Northern lords' agenda. We don't know this. In fact, the evidence refutes this. They are grudgingly forced to accept it, under current circumstances, but the idea is very much alive. And if that is the Umber agenda, then what you suggest above is not a feasible course of action.

Quote

Again, the desperation thing makes no sense. No sense whatsoever, I'm sorry. If the Umbers were desperate why not give the boy to Stannis or Jon Snow at the Wall. That way they would have kept their hands clean.

I agree that the Umber lands are large enough to hide a boy and a wolf in a hut in the forest for decades without him ever being found. However, the alternative is that Osha somehow found passage across the Bay of Seals, for a direwolf, on her own, and I find this so implausible as to be impossible.

Quote

I'm with you here, I think Davos, Robett, Osha, and Rickon are about to have quite some adventures on Skagos. They might even end up tying directly into the Others story if they end up leaving the island to end up beyond the Wall rather than south of it. If George wanted to utilize Rickon as a political factor early on in TWoW he would have been in White Harbor, not on Skagos.

Of course, this also brings Rickon in close proximity to Jon, which is what I believe the future plot leads to. Jon finding Rickon, and acting as his regent. Essentially, Rickon takes Sansa's figurehead role from the Show, and Jon becomes the general who fights on his behalf.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Firstly, let's have some applause as I finally figured out how to quote in chunks, and respond to each separately. It only took me most of a decade on the board! Let's see if it works.

Yay! congrats, it took me a while too.

 

1 hour ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Not necessarily.

A wild rain lashed down upon his black brother as he tore at the flesh of an enormous goat, washing the blood from his side where the goat's long horn had raked him.

Mountain goats usually have two horns. The goat raked Shaggy with a horn.

The way it's worded,IMO, definitely sounds like this is the goat's only horn.  It would say "one of the goat's long horns had raked him" or "the goat raked him with his long horns"  And the adjective 'long' is not normal for a goat.  'The goat's long horn" definitely implies it is the goats only horn. Plus this is an animal we have seen nowhere else in all 5 books.  And it is canon that unicorns live on Skagos and nowhere else.  Why would this tidbit be in the book if it didn't come up at least once later?

Edit: Plus we have Wex identifying Skagos as Rickon's location.

[Baseborn Manjack]

23 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Fringe theory: There's no chance that Wex is the Faceless Man who killed Balon, is tht

30 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Fringe theory: There's no chance that Wex is the Faceless Man who killed Balon, is there? I can't recall the timeline anymore, but I presume he was with Theon at the time of Balon's death?

 

 

Judging from the Faceless Men we've met, impersonating Wex would be easy.... it's keeping mute that would stump them. A chatty bunch, them.

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

I agree that the Umber lands are large enough to hide a boy and a wolf in a hut in the forest for decades without him ever being found. However, the alternative is that Osha somehow found passage across the Bay of Seals, for a direwolf, on her own, and I find this so implausible as to be impossible.

Well, maybe. I don't find it so incredible. We have the precedent (with Dany's dragons) of a ship's crew moving from reluctant and fearful to proud once a formerly extinct animal is on board a while. Skagos is an (admittedly rare) port of call, it stands to reason that ships with appropriate holds and pens for animals would be in route there. While Osha has no money, I'm sure, she has political capital beside her (provided the captain is a loyal Northman). For all we know, they boarded a Skagosi ship, & the captain was looking forward to the reward he would get from a quarrelsome Magnar for gifting him with the last Stark to hold hostage/for ransom. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

 

Quote

Judging from the Faceless Men we've met, impersonating Wex would be easy.... it's keeping mute that would stump them. A chatty bunch, them.

The Dusky Woman isn't all that chatty, and she is a prime suspect as (one of?) Euron's Faceless Men.

Quote

Well, maybe. I don't find it so incredible. We have the precedent (with Dany's dragons) of a ship's crew moving from reluctant and fearful to proud once a formerly extinct animal is on board a while. Skagos is an (admittedly rare) port of call, it stands to reason that ships with appropriate holds and pens for animals would be in route there. While Osha has no money, I'm sure, she has political capital beside her (provided the captain is a loyal Northman). For all we know, they boarded a Skagosi ship, & the captain was looking forward to the reward he would get from a quarrelsome Magnar for gifting him with the last Stark to hold hostage/for ransom. 

The Skagosi are barred from having any ships, since an ancient Brandon Stark forbade them from accessing the Sea.