J. Stargaryen

R+L=J v.163

311 posts in this topic

Apropos the Heresy essays: AD+L is the best of the lot but under scrutiny still falls well short of R+L=J. The rest fall into crackpot territory particularly RB+L, which requires serious mental gymnastics and rewriting of the text to even be remotely possible. I think that @Kingmonkey's R+L=J essay was top notch and deserves to be linked in this thread. Take away the more contentious issues (i.e. legitimacy and Protect vs. Obey) which are not even necessary for the basics of R+L=J and combined with the symbolism and subtext as well as making the most narrative sense by a distance, this theory becomes virtually irrefutable. 

My last statement is why I think the Heresy essays even exist. Some people do not like that there is such a well supported theory which has become 'mainstream' to the extent that many consider it canon, or as close to canon as it gets and are hoping against hope that Martin has some big twist coming. Well, R+L=J was supposed to be the big twist and would have been had Martin kept up his writing pace of the first three books and revealed it 10-12 years ago.

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9 hours ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

Just a question that I am sure that has been answered before; I have noticed that

Could this being Jon’s very own dragon’s dream? Even if it isn’t a dream.

I'm of the opinion that this is one example of Jon's affinity with his Valyrian (Fire) blood.

Your quote above with the addition of this, early on in the series...

“Drogon,” she whispered softly, “where are you?” For a moment she could almost see him sweeping across the sky, his black wings swallowing the stars.

Spinning, Jon saw the drapes he’d ripped from the window. He flung the lamp into the puddled cloth with both hands. Metal crunched, glass shattered, oil spewed, and the hangings went up in a great whoosh of flame. The heat of it on his face was sweeter than any kiss Jon had ever known.

The water was scalding hot, but Daenerys did not flinch or cry out. She liked the heat. It made her feel clean. Besides, her brother had often told her that it was never too hot for a Targaryen. “Ours is the house of the dragon,” he would say. “The fire is in our blood.”

Noticed what GRRM put...

Dragons again.  For a moment Jon could almost see them too, coiling in the night, their dark wings outlined against a sea of flame.

**That moment was not the only time he experienced seeing glimpses of dragons (while being awake).  It has happened before.  The question that I keep posit for fans to contemplate is, since when has Jon able to have these visions/glimpses of dragons, (since his birth and able to understand?) especially when he had no reference of thought?  Meaning, when Dany said that she almost see Drogon for a moment, Dany had the reference of thought, she saw first hand the moment Drogon hatched, seeing how he grew as time went on.  However, Jon does not have that reference of thought.  There has to be something that is triggering all of this, something in Jon's blood? is it the mix of his Stark/Tagaryen blood that is enhancing his "vision/glimpses"?? Are these sights of the past, present or far into the future??

Also, if GRRM give anything more than these, it would be like him plainly spelling it out for us that it's Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon.

 

Edited by IceFire125

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14 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

I had the assumption from the start that the Heresy essays would change the minds of some non-RLJ folks to other non-RLJ theories, but wouldn't convince any RLJ folks to go non-RLJ, or any non-RLJ folks to go RLJ.

I agree with you for a couple of different reasons. First, most RLJers here have considered alternatives many times over. I think this is why a lot of us so staunchly believe in that solution. Because we saw what those alternatives had to offer. Second, I've gotten the impression that some people are unsure of who Jon's parents are, but they're certain it's not R+L.

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11 hours ago, SFDanny said:

 My comment was judgmental towards those two theories. I should have been clearer. I don't like them. I find them to be based on misreadings of the text at best, and substitutions of fan theories without textual support at worst.

Ultimately we have to realise that not everyone shares our basis for evaluation. As @J. Stargaryen says, some people are simply looking for the most persuasive non-RLJ theory. They may be so set against it that they simply don't weigh it in the balance compared to the other theories. Alternatively they might be very suspicious of the type of evidence provided, reading what we see as the ambiguity of detail necessary for a mystery as the ambiguity of detail necessary for a red herring. Such people would put more weight on symbolic evidence and their sense of what would make a good story; it's harder to claim that RLJ is the only game in town on that basis. 

As to those two theories, I honestly liked both of them (Wolfmaid will no doubt be shocked to hear this). I thought AD was lacking in anything approaching positive evidence and left a number of rather awkward questions, but did a really good job of suggesting a deliberate and ongoing thematic link. RB suffered from the idée fixe of conception at Harrenhal. That was required by a strict adherence to a very particular interpretation of the Harrenhal symbolism, but was not required by the theory of Robert as father. Had Wolfmaid argued for conception just before the abduction, it could have made a much more solid argument. 

I'd still go with S+L as the best non-RLJ possibility -- slim as that is. 

10 hours ago, Consigliere said:

 I think that @Kingmonkey's R+L=J essay was top notch and deserves to be linked in this thread.

My thanks. I too think it would be a good addition to the listing of sources in the regular OPs. If only because it's probably the most recent attempt to do an in-depth presentation of RLJ by some years!

 

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3 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

Ultimately we have to realise that not everyone shares our basis for evaluation. As @J. Stargaryen says, some people are simply looking for the most persuasive non-RLJ theory. They may be so set against it that they simply don't weigh it in the balance compared to the other theories. Alternatively they might be very suspicious of the type of evidence provided, reading what we see as the ambiguity of detail necessary for a mystery as the ambiguity of detail necessary for a red herring. Such people would put more weight on symbolic evidence and their sense of what would make a good story; it's harder to claim that RLJ is the only game in town on that basis. 

I do realize, my friend, that many do not share my view of the evidence. We differ on important points, and yet I hope I have shown a respect for your views. I love challenges to the status quo. New ways of looking at problems. I very much like a good crackpot theory that expands the boundaries of what was thought possible. I've come up with more than my share of those. I just don't try to convince people I have a solid basis for a different evaluation of evidence when I don't. Or I hope I don't.

For years, while I have supported the idea that R+L=J is the most likely explanation of Martin's little mystery, I have also tried to leave open the possibilities that Martin has shown to us. It's why I have a soft spot for those who want Ashara to be Jon's mom, or Wylla. I don't think I've every really encountered someone who wanted the Fisherman's daughter to be his mom, but that's something that should be considered. I just don't think Martin's writing a bad mystery. He's not going to leave clues that point in these four different directions and then end with a resolution that there is entirely no evidence for. I've read such stories and they are horrible examples of the genre. One should be able to, upon the revelation, say "oh, I see how he left clues for that answer." Neither of these two possibilities do that. Instead it leaves one scratching one's head going "that shit come out of nowhere!"

3 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

 As to those two theories, I honestly liked both of them (Wolfmaid will no doubt be shocked to hear this). I thought AD was lacking in anything approaching positive evidence and left a number of rather awkward questions, but did a really good job of suggesting a deliberate and ongoing thematic link. RB suffered from the idée fixe of conception at Harrenhal. That was required by a strict adherence to a very particular interpretation of the Harrenhal symbolism, but was not required by the theory of Robert as father. Had Wolfmaid argued for conception just before the abduction, it could have made a much more solid argument.

With Arthur Dayne as Jon's father, I completely agree about the absence of "positive evidence." We should, five books in, be able to discern some type of relationship between Arthur and Lyanna, even if that is not an openly romantic one. The clues for romance have to be there. Or the clues that Arthur was obsessed with Lyanna. Or something. Instead it relies on symbolism around the Sword of the Morning and some type of connection to Jon. It's "the butler did it" but with nothing to indicate the butler had reason to do it, much less a hint that he might be more than just a butler. It's a huge stretch of a theory. The good part of this theory, if there is one, is that there really isn't a lot to say it is impossible.

With Wolfmaid's Robert and Lyanna theory, I will say something here, I never said in any of the debates. I raise timeline concerns for all of these theories, including R+L=J, and there are some obvious concerns here with this theory. But there is also one very obvious answer to those concerns - Robert's stay in Stony Sept. This is the time of Jon's conception. If one is wedded to this idea one should show how Robert being, basically on his own, and hiding out while hurt could have met with Lyanna. Not likely at all, but possible. Much more possible than changing the entire timeline of the story to make the theory fit. But Wolfmaid persists in pushing ideas that are not believable. Dany, not being Dany, Robert fathering Jon at Harrenhal, Rhaella not going to Dragonstone, and on and on it goes. Ask me to believe a "what if" and change something basic in the story once is hard enough to believe on no evidence, but stack them up repeatedly as this scenario does and it just becomes  totally unbelievable and a demonstration of what not to do. It shows a desperation to make a theory work, instead of fitting a theory into the facts we know.

Anyway, that's why I didn't like those two theories.

3 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

I'd still go with S+L as the best non-RLJ possibility -- slim as that is. 

Given that I've already argued against it, and hope I've shown the reasons why I think it is indeed a very slim likelihood to be true, let me just say my favorite non R+L=J theory is Ned and Ashara. I think it the most likely of these, and one that gets almost no love from the readers. It's something to explore, I think. My favorite ending with this mystery would be Wylla being Jon's mom. But that is because I prefer bastards and broken things to secret princes. I just can't see that being where Martin is going with this story.

Edited by SFDanny

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3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

let me just say my favorite non R+L=J theory is Ned and Ashara.

Yeah, in the hypothetical absence of R+L, it's one I'd like best, as well. 

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14 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

I'd still go with S+L as the best non-RLJ possibility -- slim as that is. 

 

 

Isn't that really three theories? In other words, which brother is the most likely (in your opinion)?

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11 hours ago, SFDanny said:

With Wolfmaid's Robert and Lyanna theory...

The ultimate killer, given the emphasis laid in another context, is that Jon is never described as being "black of hair"

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12 hours ago, SFDanny said:

 We differ on important points, and yet I hope I have shown a respect for your views. I love challenges to the status quo. New ways of looking at problems. I very much like a good crackpot theory that expands the boundaries of what was thought possible. I've come up with more than my share of those. I just don't try to convince people I have a solid basis for a different evaluation of evidence when I don't. Or I hope I don't.

While we differ on many details, we obviously share both that adherence to critical analysis and a love for experimenting with damaged ceramics. I imagine that's why it's always great fun debating with you. :cheers: 

12 hours ago, SFDanny said:

 He's not going to leave clues that point in these four different directions and then end with a resolution that there is entirely no evidence for. I've read such stories and they are horrible examples of the genre. One should be able to, upon the revelation, say "oh, I see how he left clues for that answer." Neither of these two possibilities do that. Instead it leaves one scratching one's head going "that shit come out of nowhere!"

You've succinctly nailed my feelings about AD and RB here. While I find the symbolic connections that people have shown for those cases to be attractive, it's the lack of pointers that bother me. Both theories could be made to make sense in retrospect, but I feel like we're missing something that could be looked back on as a hidden signpost, that "positive evidence" I'm looking for. 

Equally this is why I find the Starkcest option the most convincing (or should that be least unconvincing?) alternative. While the evidence is certainly threadbare, in the Dany / Jon / Tyrion comparison and the entire "more of the North" calculus, there's the possibility of actual signposting for such a revelation. 

12 hours ago, SFDanny said:

With Wolfmaid's Robert and Lyanna theory, I will say something here, I never said in any of the debates. I raise timeline concerns for all of these theories, including R+L=J, and there are some obvious concerns here with this theory. But there is also one very obvious answer to those concerns - Robert's stay in Stony Sept.

That's a very good thought, and one that hadn't occurred to me. As with our debate about Ned's movements, it seems all kinds of unlikely but does leave a window of uncertainty that leaves the opportunity open.

Another possibility Wolfmaid could have argued would have been conception just before abduction. Lyanna might have been on the road from the Vale to Riverrun. That would still make Jon too old, but only a few months too old rather than the 18 months or so that stretches credibility so thinly. 

12 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Given that I've already argued against it, and hope I've shown the reasons why I think it is indeed a very slim likelihood to be true, let me just say my favorite non R+L=J theory is Ned and Ashara. I think it the most likely of these, and one that gets almost no love from the readers. It's something to explore, I think. My favorite ending with this mystery would be Wylla being Jon's mom. But that is because I prefer bastards and broken things to secret princes. I just can't see that being where Martin is going with this story.

I can't help but think that Wylla would be a massive Rickroll. "Mystery? What mystery? Hah, suckers!"

Ashara is an interesting case because there's surely something about Ashara that we haven't been told. Ned's attitude to her is a red flag. However it's hard to understand why it would be such a big secret, and in storytelling terms it would be rather unsatisfying to have the answer we're given before we're even told it's a mystery turn out to be true. Much better, surely, to have a second puzzle hidden inside the first. That's why I think Ned & Ashara were involved prior to Ned's marriage to Cat. 

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1 hour ago, UnmaskedLurker said:

Isn't that really three theories? In other words, which brother is the most likely (in your opinion)?

It is really. Which perhaps is a bit of a cheat when it comes to considering relative possibilities. ;) However it's structured that way because I felt the evidence for Jon being an incest child was a lot better than the evidence for any particular father. As to which is more likely, I gave this jokey but I think fairly reasonable assessment:

Quote

 

So who was slipping their sister some Stark sausage? I think we can put this in an order of likelihood. I'll throw in a percentage likelihood based on a highly scientific process of pulling numbers out of my arse:

1. Benjen. Closest ties to Lyanna, unknown whereabouts at the time, mysteriously sent to the wall. 72.1%
2. Eddard. Would explain his guilt, but a narrow window of opportunity. 24.3%
3. Brandon. Most sexually active as far as we know, but somewhat dead at the time. 3.6%

 

The essay is here if you want the justification, do pop over and take a look. 

 

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21 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Yeah, in the hypothetical absence of R+L, it's one I'd like best, as well. 

I agree, Ygrain. It seems like we have been doing that a lot. 

12 hours ago, Black Crow said:

The ultimate killer, given the emphasis laid in another context, is that Jon is never described as being "black of hair"

I'm not sure this is a killer, but it is something to add on to questions for a weak theory. I'm not sure the dominance of Baratheon hair color genes when combined with Lannister genes is the same as if we have a Baratheon - Stark union. We have nothing to gone on here, I think. The "seed is strong" might well mean you are right. This isn't real world genetics. It's Martin's fantasy "blood" inheritance, so you're probably right, but I would want more information here.

11 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

While we differ on many details, we obviously share both that adherence to critical analysis and a love for experimenting with damaged ceramics. I imagine that's why it's always great fun debating with you. :cheers: 

Salud :cheers: and the fun is mutual.

11 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

You've succinctly nailed my feelings about AD and RB here. While I find the symbolic connections that people have shown for those cases to be attractive, it's the lack of pointers that bother me. Both theories could be made to make sense in retrospect, but I feel like we're missing something that could be looked back on as a hidden signpost, that "positive evidence" I'm looking for. 

Agreed

11 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

Equally this is why I find the Starkcest option the most convincing (or should that be least unconvincing?) alternative. While the evidence is certainly threadbare, in the Dany / Jon / Tyrion comparison and the entire "more of the North" calculus, there's the possibility of actual signposting for such a revelation.

 

11 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

That's a very good thought, and one that hadn't occurred to me. As with our debate about Ned's movements, it seems all kinds of unlikely but does leave a window of uncertainty that leaves the opportunity open.

Another possibility Wolfmaid could have argued would have been conception just before abduction. Lyanna might have been on the road from the Vale to Riverrun. That would still make Jon too old, but only a few months too old rather than the 18 months or so that stretches credibility so thinly.

I have never understood the need to start out a theory by challenging everything we know. A good theory should operate in the gaps of what we know, not discard what we know without solid evidence to change what we know. There is an awful lot of room in the gaps to work with.

11 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

I can't help but think that Wylla would be a massive Rickroll. "Mystery? What mystery? Hah, suckers!"

Absolutely! A mystery shouldn't turn out to be no mystery at all. I'd just like to read a good Prince and the Pauper fantasy where the hero is the common kid, not the prince.

12 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

Ashara is an interesting case because there's surely something about Ashara that we haven't been told. Ned's attitude to her is a red flag. However it's hard to understand why it would be such a big secret, and in storytelling terms it would be rather unsatisfying to have the answer we're given before we're even told it's a mystery turn out to be true. Much better, surely, to have a second puzzle hidden inside the first. That's why I think Ned & Ashara were involved prior to Ned's marriage to Cat. 

I think the puzzle is being revealed in the possible relationship of Brandon with Ashara. I'm in the camp of those who firmly believe Ashara is alive and masquerading as Septa Lemore and we will find out much more about her. Much less likely that Ned and Ashara had an affair in my opinion. That doesn't mean Ned didn't have feelings for Ashara.

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1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

 

I'm not sure this is a killer, but it is something to add on to questions for a weak theory. I'm not sure the dominance of Baratheon hair color genes when combined with Lannister genes is the same as if we have a Baratheon - Stark union. We have nothing to gone on here, I think. The "seed is strong" might well mean you are right. This isn't real world genetics. It's Martin's fantasy "blood" inheritance, so you're probably right, but I would want more information here.

 

In the real world you would be absolutely correct, but this is GRRM's world and the Baratheon "black of hair" business is such a major plot device that there is no way GRRM can turn around and say "except..." 

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1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

I think the puzzle is being revealed in the possible relationship of Brandon with Ashara. I'm in the camp of those who firmly believe Ashara is alive and masquerading as Septa Lemore and we will find out much more about her. Much less likely that Ned and Ashara had an affair in my opinion. That doesn't mean Ned didn't have feelings for Ashara.

Agreed again, minus the Lemore part. I am firmly in the camp of those who hope that unlike many other characters, Ashara is dead and stays dead. My money is on Wenda.

4 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

In the real world you would be absolutely correct, but this is GRRM's world and the Baratheon "black of hair" business is such a major plot device that there is no way GRRM can turn around and say "except..." 

That I can agree with, as well.

Besides, it would go even against fantasy genetics: Baratheon black trumps all the light colours (not sure what honey hair looks like, some kinds of honey are pretty dark), but it somehow gets trumped by Stark brown, which itself gets easily trumped by Tully auburn, i.e. light colour? Doesn't make any sense.

Plus, as said above, if a theory requires extensive adjustments, such as characters not being who they are or a different age and the like, there's something obviously wrong with it.

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On 9-12-2016 at 8:42 PM, UnmaskedLurker said:

I come back to the forum after a long hiatus and a shiny new RLJ thread pops up. For the record, I still think R+L=J.

Welcome back!

 

3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I'm not sure this is a killer, but it is something to add on to questions for a weak theory. I'm not sure the dominance of Baratheon hair color genes when combined with Lannister genes is the same as if we have a Baratheon - Stark union. We have nothing to gone on here, I think. The "seed is strong" might well mean you are right. This isn't real world genetics. It's Martin's fantasy "blood" inheritance, so you're probably right, but I would want more information here.

Baratheon black always wins out over Lannister golden, but that doesn't say anything about any hair colours. However, AGOT also establishes that all of Robert's children (that Eddard knows of) are black of hair (Gendry, Mya, Barra, etc.), and ACOK and ASOS further indicate this (Edric, Bella). So while the "Bartheon black wins out over Lannister golden" says nothing about any potential result from a Baratheon-Stark union, Robert's bastard children, and them all being black of hair, is an important clue as to why Joffrey and his siblings are not black-haired. The fact that a Baratheon-Lannister union should, based on previous marriages, have resulted in a black-haired child, further backs it up. 

The seed is strong, Jon Arryn had cried on his deathbed, and so it was. All those bastards, all with hair as black as night. Grand Maester Malleon recorded the last mating between stag and lion, some ninety years ago, when Tya Lannister wed Gowen Baratheon, third son of the reigning lord. Their only issue, an unnamed boy described in Malleon's tome as a large and lusty lad born with a full head of black hair, died in infancy. Thirty years before that a male Lannister had taken a Baratheon maid to wife. She had given him three daughters and a son, each black-haired. No matter how far back Ned searched in the brittle yellowed pages, always he found the gold yielding before the coal.

It would be strange, however, to draw the same conclusion if Eddard had been aware of a bastard child of Robert without the black hair. Because if Robert can have one child who does not posses the black hair, why couldn't he have more?

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Report from a private meet and greet when GRRM was in Guadalajara:

Quote

So my question was: Why do you think the political institutions in the Seven Kingdoms are so weak? His answer: the Kingdom was unified with dragons, so the Targaryen's flaw was to create an absolute monarchy highly dependent on them, with the small council not designed to be a real check and balance. So, without dragons it took a sneeze, a wildly incompetent and megalomaniac king, a love struck prince, a brutal civil war, a dissolute king that didn't really know what to do with the throne and then chaos. Interesting answer.

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20 hours ago, Black Crow said:

The ultimate killer, given the emphasis laid in another context, is that Jon is never described as being "black of hair"

That's right. The wiki says Jon has dark brown hair and points to Bran I in Got.  In that chapter, he's only described by Bran as 'dark' compared to Robb and having Stark facial features by Tyrion and Arya. Sansa describes Arya as looking like Jon and that Arya also has the Stark's brown hair.  The wording is ambiguous; however, Sansa is griping about Arya, so in that context, she is specifically talking about Arya's features and coloring.  Ned says Arya looks like Lyanna.  So that might imply that Jon also looks like Lyanna. A specific description of Jon's hair color is missing in the text.  So it's curious that Kit Harrington came to his audition with a black wig and was later asked to dye his hair black.

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7 minutes ago, LynnS said:

A specific description of Jon's hair color is missing in the text.

Quote

A gust of wind sent icy tendrils wending through his long brown hair. (Jon IX, ASOS 69)

 

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10 minutes ago, LynnS said:

So it's curious that Kit Harrington came to his audition with a black wig and was later asked to dye his hair black.

Goes with the black suit. I've played this mummers game myself.

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13 minutes ago, Shmedricko said:

Well, the more interesting part there is that George actually confirms that the Targaryens created an absolute monarchy and that this didn't really change all that much afterwards until the Rebellion was successful.

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39 minutes ago, Shmedricko said:

 

24 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, the more interesting part there is that George actually confirms that the Targaryens created an absolute monarchy and that this didn't really change all that much afterwards until the Rebellion was successful.

There is a video of the GRRM stage interview with the questions if you are interested. 

 

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