J. Stargaryen

R+L=J v.163

398 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, Kingmonkey said:

Benjen tells Jon at the feast celebrating Robert's arrival at Winterfell that he was younger than Jon the first time he got drunk. This fits in nicely with the Tourney at Harrenhal if Benjen is a year younger than Lyanna.

And also if he is two years younger than Lyanna (making him 12 at Harrenhal), or even three (11).  It's hard to say what he drank, or when, or where.

1 hour ago, Kingmonkey said:

Bran initially Benjen and Lyanna for himself and Arya, suggesting that the age gap was similar -- " If the girl was Arya, the boy was Bran himself..."

True, but he also says

Quote

Arya never beat me playing swords, the way that girl is beating him.

...even though we know Arya is more than a year older than he is. 

Bran is also somewhat suspect as a judge of Arya-like appearances, since in the same book he mistakes Leaf for Arya and Leaf is ~200 years older and a different species:D

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4 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

If on the other hand all you have is "There are no hints", then that's not a debate, that's just putting your fingers in your ears and refusing to listen. Which is fine too, each to their own. It makes for a very dull discussion though.

Projecting one's wishful thining makes for a dull discussion, as well. Because not only are there no hints at starkcest, but the idea itself is inconsistent with the way the characters are portrayed as well as their reactions to one another.

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13 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

Probability of source of Starkcest paternity:

Father: 6.24%

Brother: 90.46%

Great Other, who is secretly a Stark: 1.82%

Time-travelling Bran: 1.07%

Time-travelling Hodor, who turns out to have been baby-swapped for William Stark's eldest son Brandon, and is the true heir of Winterfell: 0.31%

Random wandering direwolf descended from an ancient Stark warg: 0.04%

Time-travelling Jon Snow, being his own father: 0.03

Tony Stark (Iron Man) 0.01%

GRRM (honorary Stark): 0.01%

I hope that satisfies your curiosity.

For now. I have to admit I left a time-traveling Hodor out of my own calculations. Now, I will have to spend weeks re-working my formula.

2+2=4, add in 42 for the secret of the universe ... I'll get back to you.

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5 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

If RLJ is not true, then all those things you've been reading as hints for RLJ turn out not to have been hints after all. 

If Starkcest is not true, then all those hints for Starkcest turn out not to have been hints at all.

If you flatly chose to say "I don't believe in Starkcest, none of that stuff is hints", then of course you see no hints. Just as if someone flatly choses to say "I don't believe in RLJ, none of that stuff is hints", then they see no hints either. That doesn't mean, in either case, that there are no hints. 

I've written an essay full of hints. If you want to dispute the interpretation of those hints, great. All for the good. I'll happily discuss them, I'll happily continue acting as devil's advocate for them. These interpretations can certainly be challenged. If you consider those interpretations and decide they are significantly less likely than the interpretations that lead to RLJ -- great, I agree. You're not going to be able to disprove them though, because there is as yet not enough information to do so. We can have that discussion over on that thread, 'cos it's not really an RLJ discussion. 

If on the other hand all you have is "There are no hints", then that's not a debate, that's just putting your fingers in your ears and refusing to listen. Which is fine too, each to their own. It makes for a very dull discussion though.

But the books don't "hint" at R+L. Multiple characters flat out talk about them, and Robert even acknowledges they had sex. At the very least it's common knowledge among the main players at the time that they had something going on.

I read your essay a while back, and skimmed through it again recently - and I'm not seeing any hints. Your main argument seems to be D/T/J are main characters and D+T were born of incest (though cousin marriages is another issue entirely) therefore J must be the product of incest. The three families of T/L/S are the main Houses in the story, and if T+L practice incest then it stands to reason S also practices incest.

Those aren't hints. A hint would be Ned remembering Lyanna's embrace and feeling guilty about it, or Benjen showing anguished remorse whenever he talks to Jon. I'm not seeing any Starks showing the slightest inkling that there is an incest secret in the family.

My fingers are firmly out of my ears. Bring on your hints.

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Posted (edited)

12 hours ago, JNR said:

Actually, I'm not even sure Benjen was able to make sperm yet at the time Lyanna would theoretically have been knocked up.  The wiki says he was only a year younger than Lyanna, but there is no actual evidence cited for that in the Benjen Age Calculation, which seems more like a wild guess.  Given the way she was whipping him in Bran's weirwood vision, I'm guessing she had more than a year's advantage.

Actually, that's not what the calculation states. The age calculation demonstrates that Benjen was at least a year younger than Lyanna, but states that he might have been born even later, and thus was several years younger than her. Hence why his page states that he was born "in 267 AC or later".

 

Edit: The entry did contain a small mistake in the note, which has been corrected, but which had no effect on the conclusion of the calculation.

Edited by Rhaenys_Targaryen

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On 17/04/2017 at 6:43 AM, Ygrain said:

Projecting one's wishful thining makes for a dull discussion, as well.

Yes.

On 17/04/2017 at 6:43 AM, Ygrain said:

Because not only are there no hints at starkcest, but the idea itself is inconsistent with the way the characters are portrayed as well as their reactions to one another.

I've provided a several thousand word essay, acting as devil's advocate for a thesis I do not support, on why it's consistent, and why there are plenty of potential hints. Your counter-argument so far is "no there aren't," providing literally zero in the way of support for your claim.

Projecting one's wishful thinking makes for a dull discussion.

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On 17/04/2017 at 7:53 AM, maudisdottir said:

But the books don't "hint" at R+L. Multiple characters flat out talk about them, and Robert even acknowledges they had sex. At the very least it's common knowledge among the main players at the time that they had something going on.

Agreed. I'll say it again, I consider RLJ to be considerably more likely than Starkcest. By a large margin. There is far more pointing to RLJ than to any of the alternatives that are still on the table, as far as I am concerned. You'll get not the slightest argument out of me about that.

However, RLJ is not yet on the page, and thus it's interesting to consider the alternatives. Some apparent alternatives, when looked at closely, fall apart. Some can make a feasible narrative sense. Some can additionally make a good thematic sense. I believe (hope!) that both of these are *necessary* requirements to be considered feasible. I don't think GRRM is going to pull something out of his arse, so I'd consider any alternative hypothesis that fails those two requirements to be out of the picture. I think there are three alternatives that make sense with what has gone before both narratively and thematically: Rhaegar+Lyanna=Jon,  Dane+Stark=Jon and Starkcest=Jon.

That is not to say that I consider these alternatives to be equal, but that I consider these alternatives to be reasonable possibilities. At this juncture, all three of these stories could be written without the reader saying "hang on a sec..." and with a sufficient amount that could be considered foreshadowing, at least with hindsight (hindshadowing?). That's the minimum test for me. RLJ aces the test, but that doesn't mean nothing else can pass the test.

 

On 17/04/2017 at 7:53 AM, maudisdottir said:

I read your essay a while back, and skimmed through it again recently - and I'm not seeing any hints. Your main argument seems to be D/T/J are main characters and D+T were born of incest (though cousin marriages is another issue entirely) therefore J must be the product of incest. The three families of T/L/S are the main Houses in the story, and if T+L practice incest then it stands to reason S also practices incest.

No, that's not what I argued, you've missed the whole concept of exemplars. I also dealt with the cousin issue. That was also just one of the hints I discussed, there's all the stuff about the Joffrey parallels, Ned's attitude to Cersei, the "more of the north" stuff and more. 

On 17/04/2017 at 7:53 AM, maudisdottir said:

Those aren't hints. A hint would be Ned remembering Lyanna's embrace and feeling guilty about it, or Benjen showing anguished remorse whenever he talks to Jon. I'm not seeing any Starks showing the slightest inkling that there is an incest secret in the family.

Oh yes, and the stuff about Benjen's attitude towards Jon. I forgot that one, that's there too.

On 17/04/2017 at 7:53 AM, maudisdottir said:

My fingers are firmly out of my ears. Bring on your hints.

Go ahead! You know where to find them.

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On 17/04/2017 at 2:54 AM, JNR said:

And also if he is two years younger than Lyanna (making him 12 at Harrenhal), or even three (11).  It's hard to say what he drank, or when, or where.

Agreed. I think it's also very possible that GRRM hadn't given when Benjen had that first drink a moment's thought when he wrote the line of dialogue to be fair.

On 17/04/2017 at 2:54 AM, JNR said:

True, but he also says

Quote

Arya never beat me playing swords, the way that girl is beating him.

...even though we know Arya is more than a year older than he is. 

True. However Bran was fighting pre-Syrio Arya. Lyanna may have been training rather more seriously than Arya by this stage. I think the important takeaway of this line is Lyanna's unusual martial prowess:

Quote

She slashed the boy across his thigh, so hard that his leg went out from under him

Young Lyanna is pretty hardcore!

I think the best evidence is here though:

Quote

But that couldn't be right. If the girl was Arya, the boy was Bran himself, and he had never worn his hair so long

The most immediate feature Bran identifies that Benjen is not himself is not his size, but the length of his hair. The last time Arya and Bran could have played at swords, she would have been 9 and he 8. At this age, take away a year or two and hair length won't be the first thing someone would notice.  This to me says that the age difference between Arya and Bran is close enough to the age difference between Lyanna and Benjen as to be not noticeable.

On 17/04/2017 at 2:54 AM, JNR said:

Bran is also somewhat suspect as a judge of Arya-like appearances, since in the same book he mistakes Leaf for Arya and Leaf is ~200 years older and a different species:D

Fair point. I mean we're only guessing those two in the vision were Lyanna and Benjen. If Bran can't even get species right then for all we know it was really a vision of Visenya and Aegon 1 :D

 

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1 hour ago, Kingmonkey said:

Agreed. I think it's also very possible that GRRM hadn't given when Benjen had that first drink a moment's thought when he wrote the line of dialogue to be fair.

Yes, it sure is, and that happens far more often with GRRM's writing than most of his fans seem to think, so that was well said.  If it was at Harrenhal, though, I think the odds are fair he did work it out in advance.   GRRM put some time into that situation.

1 hour ago, Kingmonkey said:

True. However Bran was fighting pre-Syrio Arya. Lyanna may have been training rather more seriously than Arya by this stage.

Perhaps, but let's look at the context:

Quote

Now two children danced across the godswood, hooting at one another as they dueled with broken branches.

Broken branches, not swords.  Also, of course, we know Rickard wouldn't even let her carry a sword. So I'm not really sure Lyanna was training at all, at this time or any other time.

There are those, not you here, who argue she must have trained, because she was a whirlwind with a tourney sword at Harrenhal.  But they may possibly be forgetting she first announced she was Rickard Stark's daughter -- "that's my father's man you're kicking" -- while also of course looking exactly like a Stark.  No squires would have put up any fight against the daughter of a Great House.  Cersei, with zero dueling skills, could have done the same using a spoon.

Bran also notices immediately that

Quote

The girl was the older and taller of the two.

This tells me that she looked significantly older than Benjen, probably more than a year older, even at first glance. 

But, of course, we have no sure way to know yet what the actual ages were and looks can be deceiving.  I'd be the first to argue Bran could simply be wrong.

BTW, I also have to agree with you about this:

2 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

RLJ is not yet on the page

...though I'm afraid the irrefutable logic of this point will not be acknowledged by many others on this site.  

Your Duh test is also one more people should take seriously.  Makes perfect sense to me.  And it's a much more sensible and useful test than the usual one, about why Ned would need to hide Jon's identity (which just tells me the author of that test hadn't thought it through very well).

Edited by JNR

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Lol at JNR for throwing shade at someone who hasn't posted here in over a year. Brave, as always.

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1 hour ago, J. Stargaryen said:

Lol at JNR for throwing shade at someone who hasn't posted here in over a year. Brave, as always.

:D

On 19. 4. 2017 at 2:08 AM, Kingmonkey said:

I've provided a several thousand word essay, acting as devil's advocate for a thesis I do not support, on why it's consistent, and why there are plenty of potential hints. Your counter-argument so far is "no there aren't," providing literally zero in the way of support for your claim.

Projecting one's wishful thinking makes for a dull discussion.

Well... taking into consideration how many heretic essays there have been on all kinds of Jon parentage, each claiming its individual hints, there is no way all of them can be right at the same time, isn't it? Some apparently see what is not there, so why exactly should you be an exeption? I do not doubt that you put a great effort in your essay but that doesn't make you right.

And one thing about patterns: in order for a pattern to be established, there should be parallels. For example, I can theorize - not necessarily correctly - about Rhaegar getting himself killed by being too honourable, and claim a pattern because there has been another dashing Targaryen Prince who did just that (there is even forbidden love and setting aside a marriage involved). But what parallels are there between the Starks and Lannisters when the two are portrayed basically as, eh, stark contrast to each other? If anything, this points rather to starkcest never happening.

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On 20/04/2017 at 6:07 AM, Ygrain said:

Well... taking into consideration how many heretic essays there have been on all kinds of Jon parentage, each claiming its individual hints, there is no way all of them can be right at the same time, isn't it? Some apparently see what is not there, so why exactly should you be an exeption? I do not doubt that you put a great effort in your essay but that doesn't make you right.

I didn't say I'm right about Starkcest. I believe RLJ is considerably more likely. I've said several times in this discussion, and indeed in the very text you quoted above, that I don't think Starkcest is the likely answer. I said there are clues, and I've provided an essay full of them. There is indeed no way all of the clues in every alternative can be right, and therefore some, indeed most, of those clues are wrong. Agreed. You are aware that applies to RLJ too, right? Hell, even if (when) RLJ is confirmed, do you honestly think all of the clues people have come up with that point to it are "real"? I'm sure that at least half of them would be completely new to GRRM. 

Now, if someone said "There are no clues to RLJ" on the basis that they believe in something else and therefore all the clues for RLJ must be wrong, I'm pretty sure that you'd think that person was not worth listening to (to put it mildly). 

So why exactly should YOU be an exception?

ALL of the clues we're discussing -- for RLJ, or Starkcest, or for anything else, are merely proposed clues. That won't change unless GRRM confirms or denies those clues. If you wish to dismiss all clues that are merely proposed -- congratulations, you've just dismissed RLJ. :rolleyes: If you mean there are no proposed clues for Starkcest, then you're talking nonsense, as I've provided an essay full of them. Disagree with them all you like. Consider them to be weaker than those for RLJ, sure. Hey, I do too! However, claiming they don't exist is just sticking your fingers in your ears, saying "la la la, I can't hear you," and mistaking it for reasoned debate.

On 20/04/2017 at 6:07 AM, Ygrain said:

And one thing about patterns: in order for a pattern to be established, there should be parallels. For example, I can theorize - not necessarily correctly - about Rhaegar getting himself killed by being too honourable, and claim a pattern because there has been another dashing Targaryen Prince who did just that (there is even forbidden love and setting aside a marriage involved). But what parallels are there between the Starks and Lannisters when the two are portrayed basically as, eh, stark contrast to each other? If anything, this points rather to starkcest never happening.

I agree with you when you say there should be parallels to establish a pattern, which is why I show the parallels to establish the pattern in my essay. If you want the answer to what parallels there are, you could actually read the essay you're criticising, and find out.

If you're so certain of RLJ at this point that you can't be bothered with alternative hypotheses, fair enough. That's a perfectly valid position to take, and nobody said you have to read the essays dealing with alternatives. Just don't pretend you have something to contribute to the discussion if you're not interested in finding out what's being discussed. 

 

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I just read that essay again, from beginning to end, and I have to say - there's nothing. Just a bunch of "what if's" and "if this happened and this happened, might not this have also happened?" as well as drawing parallels between characters that are pretty thin. But not a scrap of actual evidence in George's own words.

That's my contribution to the discussion.

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Well, Kingmonkey,  I did read your essay back then when you published it. Thoroughly. There was nothing. You construed a mistaken premise that Ned couldn't have figured out the twincest unless he had some personal experience, and tried hard to twist things into pretzels to support it. Not impressed. Theories like N+A or N+W do have at least some textual support, it is the inconsistencies within the story that prove them false. Starkcest or Robert as Jon's father are not only inconsistent but plain based on things which ain't there. Some of the RLJ clues may fall into the same category, they may be coincidental, but not all of them, because e.g. "Rhaegar loved his lady Lyanna" is as plain as it gets. 

There is one thing we can definitely agree on: no use discussing this, but don't claim I had nothing to contribute with. Busting your Targ-Lannister-Stark "parallel" by pointing out that Starks and Lannisters are not parallels but contrasts is certainly a thing worth considering.

 

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On 4/17/2017 at 3:54 AM, JNR said:

And also if he is two years younger than Lyanna (making him 12 at Harrenhal), or even three (11).  It's hard to say what he drank, or when, or where. ...

 

In any case, this might just be Benjen's way of creating rapport with Jon.

He's using almost a stock phrase "I did stupid things at your age, too."

Kingmonkey, which of your essays lays out the idea Ned and his sister Lyanna are Jon's parents?

Edited by Prof. Cecily

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6 hours ago, Prof. Cecily said:

In any case, this might just be Benjen's way of creating rapport with Jon.

He's using almost a stock phrase "I did stupid things at your age, too."

Kingmonkey, which of your essays lays out the idea Ned and his sister Lyanna are Jon's parents?

I think this is probably the case. We should be a little wary of everything in the opening 13 chapter act to be honest -- there are at the very least traces of GRRM's original story line hanging around in there, and it would be quite reasonable to guess that GRRM may have written that line before he'd even thought up Harrenhal. However I did discuss the possibility that this passage hints at Benjen being Jon's dad in said essay, which is not specific to Ned+Lyanna, but explores the idea that Jon is the son of Lyanna and one of her brothers. Link below:

 

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Jon's looks are not unusual for a child of a Targ and non-Targ. Rhaegar's first child Rhaenys looked more like a Martell. Prince Baelor had his Martell mother's dark hair. Aegor Rivers had the black hair of his Bracken mother. Prince Daeron, son of Dyanna Dayne and Maekar, had sandy brown hair. The first three sons of Rhaenyra either managed to come out with dark hair despite two parents with the Targ hair and eyes, or else favored their Strong father. Some of them had purple eyes, some of them didn't. Even then, I might argue that even though Jon's eyes are not purple, the description of his eyes in Bran I in AGOT as a grey so dark they seemed almost black as a possible indication of Targaryen traits even in the eyes, as it doesn't seem to be the typical grey Stark eyes. I wouldn't be surprised if Prince Duncan favored Betha Blackwood, and Steffon favored Ormund. And Ned's own eldest children favor Cately Tully in the hair. Is this evidence of Tullycest?

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At least one fatal blow for Robert and Starkcest is that Robert or Ned would have had to find, impregnate, and lose Lyanna months into the war, and Benjen would have had to do the same months into the war while he was the Stark in Winterfell.

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