Lothar Frey's Machinations to become Lord

[HouseFossoway]

In this post, I would like to outline how I believe Lothar Frey could quite easily become lord of the Crossing in the next book

 

First, I would like to point out that despite how all the freys like Big Walder, Little Walder, Edwyn, Black Walder and the rest are keeping track of who is next in line, that won't really matter in the end. As GRRM says, even though male preference primogeniture is the official rule:

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The short answer is that the laws of the seven kingdoms are modelled on those in real medieval history ... which is to say they were vague, uncodified, subject to varying interpretations, and often contradictory.

So, basically, a lordship will in general pass down to whoever has the most power and political support to become lord, which is usually the first son.

So even though Lothar is very far down the line of succession, he might still be able to claim the lordship even if Freys ahead of him are still alive, as long as he has enough power and political support. I think there might be several freys ahead of him who he could successfully disinherit:

• Women - I think that given the male dominance in Westeros, Lothar wouldn't have a hard time seizing control from women ahead of him. Although there are probably many women who would put up more of a fight, like Asha, Arianne, etc., We haven't seen any frey women yet who I would consider as ambitious or strong enough to present much of a match for Lothar. And I don't think many surrounding lords or overlords would bother to try to right that wrong. So Lothar doesn't have to worry about Frey Women, especially if he begins arranging marriages for them.
• Descendants of Frey Women - I think the male descendants of frey women also won't pose that much of a threat to Lothar, even if those male descendants currently live at the twins. I think that most of the freys would prefer to see the lordship go to an actual frey, and not some other house, and would support someone with the frey name over someone without it. Because if a non-frey becomes lord of the twins, then any power or respect that comes along with the frey name vanishes, since all they have is their castle, and not a long history and reputation. Since they don't have a chance to become lord though, I think they might lend their support to a frey who might keep them around.
• Young boys - The young lords and ladies that we have seen so far in the series (Ermesande Hayford, Lyman Darry, etc) all appear to have two things in common: very few older relatives, and a fair amount of loyal supporters. Neither of these describes any young Freys. i think that for any Frey that is younger than about 7 or 8 years old, Lothar would have a very easy chance becoming lord over them, or at least acting castellan until they come of age, which would give him the chance to dispose of them as he needs.
• Freys who are not in the riverlands. The Freys who aren't in the riverlands are usually wards of some other lord, or training for something else. If Lothar Frey was to declare himself lord, then any frey who wasn't in the riverlands at the time would have a hard time protesting it for several reasons: first, by the time they hear about it, and travel back to the twins, Lothar would have been in power for a while, and once he's settled into power, it would be harder to remove him then at the start. Secondly, they haven't been in the riverlands creating allies, so Lothar will have more supporters in the region to help him keep power. So, I think that Lothar would not worry himself about declaring himself lord if there were people ahead of him who were at least outside of the riverlands. I think that many freys would travel back to try to remove Lothar, I think that they would just have a much harder time doing it, so Lothar would be more willing to disinherit them.

Perhaps in times of peace, Lothar might not be as able to declare himself Lord when relatives from the above four groups ahead of him are still alive, but in a time of War, when the overlords don't have the time to deal with every succession dispute, I think Lothar might be able to take advantage of the chaos, and not have to worry about anyone above.

 

So, Lothar might before the red wedding, start looking at this list of people ahead of him, and realize that it is definitely in the realm of possibility for him to become lord if he plans carefully. He can get rid of several people 

Since he advises his father, Lothar might have suggested that one of the demands that Walder makes to Tywin in exchange for committing the Red Wedding, is that Emmon Frey gets a lordship and a castle (which we are told is part of the final deal). With that, Emmon and his descendants will no longer be as much of a threat, partly because they all appear to be snivelling and weak, but also because they have their own castle which they now need to concentrate on holding.

Jared, Symond, Rhaegar, Aenys, and Hosteen all get sent North to help the Boltons. Is it a coincidence that the Freys that get sent on this dangerous mission are all ahead of Lothar, when Lothar probably had a hand in deciding who ended up going North? It would be fair for Lothar to assume that some or most of them would die, and the ones that didn't would have a hard time getting south again during the winter.

Alesander Frey was not present at the Red Wedding, indicating that he probably isn't trusted by the rest of the Freys as much. He's also a singer, so he probably doesn't have much military or political power. Aegon Bloodborn probably also won't be an issue, since he has become an outlaw.

So the freys that are still left alive at the end of ADWD, in the riverlands, and in a position to challenge Lothar Frey's declaration of himself as lord are:

1. Edwyn Frey
2. Black Walder Frey
3. Walton Frey
4. Steffon Frey
5. Bryan Frey
6. Robert Frey
7. Jonos Frey
8. Arwood Frey
9. Danwell Frey
10. Raymund Frey

So, Lothar only needs to somehow remove these ten people, and then he is in a position to become Lord of the Crossing, which is certainly feasible in the timespan of the next book, given how much Edwyn and Black Walder despise each other (something Lothar himself points out) so a fight between them could be instigated, and how he has an easy scape goat for other frey deaths: the brotherhood without banners.

 

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

16 minutes ago, HouseFossoway said:

In this post, I would like to outline how I believe Lothar Frey could quite easily become lord of the Crossing in the next book

(...)

So the freys that are still left alive at the end of ADWD, in the riverlands, and in a position to challenge Lothar Frey's declaration of himself as lord are:

1. Edwyn Frey
2. Black Walder Frey
3. Walton Frey
4. Steffon Frey
5. Bryan Frey
6. Robert Frey
7. Jonos Frey
8. Arwood Frey
9. Danwell Frey
10. Raymund Frey

So, Lothar only needs to somehow remove these ten people, and then he is in a position to become Lord of the Crossing, which is certainly feasible in the timespan of the next book, given how much Edwyn and Black Walder despise each other (something Lothar himself points out) so a fight between them could be instigated, and how he has an easy scape goat for other frey deaths: the brotherhood without banners.

What you call "quite easily" seems, actually, quite a tall order. Eliminate ten different people seems like a lot. Not get eliminated himself, another challenge. You mention the Brotherhood w/o Banners: yes, they've been offing Freys, and Lame Lothar could be their next catch.

And I have a premonition that some bad stuff will be happening to the Freys of the Crossing soon. I mean, I know, they've been getting caught, hanged, horse-dragged, riddled with arrows, baked, eaten and called unflattering names, ever since the Red Wedding. But what's coming to them in the following books is, I think, really unpleasant. The position of Lord of the Crossing will therefore be both unglamorous and very temporary.

[velo-knight]

6 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

What you call "quite easily" seems, actually, quite a tall order. Eliminate ten different people seems like a lot. Not get eliminated himself, another challenge. You mention the Brotherhood w/o Banners: yes, they've been offing Freys, and Lame Lothar could be their next catch.

One other issue: He can't just eliminate these 10 people, he needs to eliminate them while holding on to political support and legitimacy over the women, children, and non-Freys ahead of him, who aren't counted in this list. It's not enough to make sure those 10 people die, he can't get a bad reputation doing it himself, or else one of those lesser candidates with a superior claim might get political support. Orchestrating all those murders while making it look like someone else would be a tall, tall order.

6 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

And I have a premonition that some bad stuff will be happening to the Freys of the Crossing soon. I mean, I know, they've been getting caught, hanged, horse-dragged, riddled with arrows, baked, eaten and called unflattering names, ever since the Red Wedding. But what's coming to them in the following books is, I think, really unpleasant. The position of Lord of the Crossing will therefore be both unglamorous and very temporary.

I think this, very much. I actually do see Lothar as Lord - I'm one of the people who thinks Big Walder was right when he said he'll be lord, too - but most likely under this kind of chaotic scenario when no Lord of the Crossing lasts very long.

[Protagoras]

First of all - I wouldn´t exclude women and descendants of Frey women that easily. Fair walda could have influence enough, maybe supporting Black Walder ad then, when he wins - an "accident" happens in bed.

In addition Lothar is lame and foremost a diplomat. And he think himself fortunate that Edwiyn and Black Walder hate eachother. While certainly nothing is impossible, and Lothar is indeed ruthless and clever, the impression I get is that he plans to ally with the contender who are willing to give him most for his support - not challange for the Twins himself. Because if more Freys share Merritts perspective, then it is commom knowledge that Lothar is dangerous as fuck and he won´t be trusted.

[joluoto2]

I think Lothar will help people like Black Walder only to betray them when they look the other way, Lothar seem to me like perhaps the most ruthless of the Freys.

[Luciano Moraes]

In medieval law there is a thing called proximity of blood, where a person legally inherits by being the closest relative of the previous lord. As George said, the laws are complicated and not very clear, that caused long legal and military disputes, for example in the rois maldites, with the county of Artois. Lothar can claim that he is the closes living relative to Lord Walder, assuming Emmon for example dies in the red wedding 2.0, he has to dispose of only one or two older brothers, and that is more feasible.

[estermonty python]

I don't think Emmon becoming Lord of the Crossing (for now) removes him from the line of succession to the Twins.  Even assuming that political reality wouldn't allow him to hold both titles, he still has 2 living sons, and he could pick whichever title he preferred and install his son at the other one.  Similar to Roose remaining Lord of the Dreadfort while making Ramsay Lord of Winterfell.    

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

The sensible thing for Lothar to do, is to either pick Edwyn or Black Walder’s side in the succession battle, or play them off against each other, or both. He could then set himself up at their side like he did with Lord Walder, or maybe eventually seize power himself.

He wouldn’t need to literally kill off all ten (or more) of those ahead of him, just ensure he’s on the winning side, that the losing side/s is/are effective wiped out, then start isolating/exterminating others to make his way up the pecking order. Others could probably have similar ideas. He wouldn’t necessarily need to do all the killing himself, just make sure he survives and makes it through each round.

[velo-knight]

51 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

The sensible thing for Lothar to do, is to either pick Edwyn or Black Walder’s side in the succession battle, or play them off against each other, or both. He could then set himself up at their side like he did with Lord Walder, or maybe eventually seize power himself.

 

He wouldn’t need to literally kill off all ten (or more) of those ahead of him, just ensure he’s on the winning side, that the losing side/s is/are effective wiped out, then start isolating/exterminating others to make his way up the pecking order. Others could probably have similar ideas. He wouldn’t necessarily need to do all the killing himself, just make sure he survives and makes it through each round.

 

 

I think this is the only realistic approach for Lothar. If he makes an aggressive bid from the beginning, a coalition could form around of the aforementioned inferior candidates who have a superior claim.