The population of Western Essos / the Free Cities

[Arakan]

I made this post in the WoIaF section but maybe this is a better place for more feedback. Background is Werthead's blog "Atlas of Ice and Fire". Here the link to the original blog post https://atlasoficeandfireblog.wordpress.com/2016/03/19/the-population-of-the-free-cities/

@Free Northman Reborn @Lord Varys your feedback would be much appreciated   

Hi Werthead, 
first of all your blog is great stuff. 
I am a bit of a pre-modern demographics nerd and so your entries about the population of Westeros and the Free Cities (aka Western Essos) catched my attention. As FNR already made some good points regarding Westeros I would like to focus on Western Essos. 

In general, I think given the population you attribute to the Free Cities proper you underestimate the overall population of Western Essos quite significantly. 

I would like to focus on Volantis and Braavos in this post. 

Volantis "empire" 
1. Volantis proper: 1.0-1.2 million 
2. Other urban settlements: 1.2-1.5 million
3. Total population: 6.2 million 

With figure 1 I can agree, also with your estimation of "other urban areas" though only when this includes not only the population of the three mentioned towns but the overall urban population excluding Volantis proper. I think it is perfectly reasonable to assume that there are more urban settlements.  So let's go with 2.4 million urban population. But I have a problem with the total figure because this would imply a rural population of only 3.8 million people or an urbanization rate of almost 40% and I think you know that this is way off the mark! 

To give a little bit of context: Italy at the height of the Roman Empire is estimated to have had an UR of 20-25% which itself is huge (standard pre-modern: 10%) and was only sustainable due to massive food imports from all over the empire (esp. Sicily and Egypt). When we take this in context even 25% urbanization rate for the Volantis "empire" seems  too much because this would imply that a large percentage of their food has to be imported. I ask: from where outside the Volantis territory? 

This leads me to the conclusion that the overall urbanization rate of the Volantis empire could be in the best case somewhere between 15-20% (and this is assuming a high vertility of the land along the Rhoyne at least on the level of the Nile). That leaves me with following figures :
1. Volantis proper: 1.2 million (your figure)
2. OUS: 1.2 million (your figure)
3. Rural population: 9.5-10 million 
4. Total population: 11-12 million (which gives us an UR of roughly 20%). 

Coming to Braavos...
Here you give the following figures:
1. Braavos proper: 0.8 million 
2. Surroundings: 2-3 million 

If the surrounding population would imply this is all rural I would agree with 3 million (but as minimum) but this begs the question: are there no other urban centres in the Braavosi "empire"? In my opinion this would be a wrong assumption. Logic and historical real life examples would suggest that there is quite a lot of urban population outside of Braavos proper, especially given the size of the controlled area. Quite likely less than in the case of Volantis but still somewhere in the region of roughly 50% of Braavos proper (Volantis had a factor of 100%). Furthermore I expect less fertility around Braavos and North-Western Essos than along the Rhoyne which implies more rural workforce needed to cultivate relatively more land. 

I would thus suggest the following figures:
1. Braavos proper: 0.8 million (your figure)
2. OUS: 0.4 million (my estimation)
3. Rural population: ca. 6 million 
4. Total population: 7-8 million (which gives us an UR of 15-17%). 

This gives us for both, Volantis and Braavos, a population of 18-20 million compared to your estimation of 9-10 million :). 

20 million seems a lot? Actually it's not ;). Compare this to the Roman Empire around 200 AD which had one "million city" with Rome, one city in the 300-500k ballpark with Alexandria and two cities (Carthage and Antioch) in the 150-200k ballpark. 
The best of the rest of Roman cities where all around 50k. And that Empire had 60 (!!) million people. 

I have not the time right now for the other Free Cities but all in all it is absolutely safe to assume that the combined population of the Free Cities is at least on total Westeros level, likely a bit higher, i.e. in the 40-50 million ballpark. 

If that seems too much well then GRRM should have made his Free Cities smaller ;). 

[rotting sea cow]

I remember seeing an estimate on the population of Westeros based on the size of the armies involved in the WoFK. I don't remember the numbers though.

One thing you need to consider that until ~200 years ago Essos was bathed in blood. First came the Doom of Valyria, then the now Free Cities fought against each other and finally the Dothraki came from the  east.  All of this left the countryside severely unpopulated. This is well described in Tyrion chapters through the Flatlands and Rhoyne. Despite the land being "fertile" you scarcely see any people. Most of the population is concentrated  in the cities. From Selhorys to the south is probably a bit different, and probably there is also a significant population in the Disputed Lands, there must be a reason why they keep fighting for them.

[Arakan]

42 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

I remember seeing an estimate on the population of Westeros based on the size of the armies involved in the WoFK. I don't remember the numbers though.

One thing you need to consider that until ~200 years ago Essos was bathed in blood. First came the Doom of Valyria, then the now Free Cities fought against each other and finally the Dothraki came from the  east.  All of this left the countryside severely unpopulated. This is well described in Tyrion chapters through the Flatlands and Rhoyne. Despite the land being "fertile" you scarcely see any people. Most of the population is concentrated  in the cities. From Selhorys to the south is probably a bit different, and probably there is also a significant population in the Disputed Lands, there must be a reason why they keep fighting for them.

But if Western Essos was so severely devastated, then the Free Cities couldn't be that big. We are speaking of a pre-modern society which means everything above an urban population above 20% of the total population is no feasible (and even 20% is actually too high). Those city people have to be feeded. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

9 minutes ago, Arakan said:

But if Western Essos was so severely devastated, then the Free Cities couldn't be that big. We are speaking of a pre-modern society which means everything above an urban population above 20% of the total population is no feasible (and even 20% is actually too high). Those city people have to be feeded. 

The Free Cities seem to be based more on the Carthage/Venice/Tyre type of city state model. What was the population of Venice for example, compared to the hinterlands they controlled? Was it really just 20% of the total?

[Arakan]

16 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The Free Cities seem to be based more on the Carthage/Venice/Tyre type of city state model. What was the population of Venice for example, compared to the hinterlands they controlled? Was it really just 20% of the total?

FNR, 
it's actually quite good that you take Italy as example. Italy had by far the highest urbanization rate in all of Europe, both in the High Middle Ages pre-Black Death (1340) and in the Renaissance period (1500). Italy in total had a population of around 10-12 million pre-Black Death and they would reach the same level again 100-150 later, i.e. 1450-1500. 

Italian cities 1340: 
1. Venice, Florence, Milano, Napoli: all around 100-150k 
2. Genoa, Bologna, Verona, Rome: all around 50k

Italian cities 1500: Venice and Milano bigger (200k), the rest slightly bigger. 

Italy in 1340 had an urbanization rate of roughly 20% which was presumably the highest in the world and by far the highest of all major European regions. 

For contrast: the Holy Roman Empire at the time of Charles V. and Luther (1520) had a population of roughly 15 million, 90% of which can be considered rural, (excluding Northern Italy and the Lowlands) while the biggest cities were Prague (80-100k), Cologne (50k), Nuremberg (40k) and Augsburg (30k). The biggest city of the HRE outside Italy was actually Bruges with 100k before the Black Death and 200k in 1500. 

Biggest European city in 1340 was Paris by the way with roughly 300k (Paris wouldn't reach this population again until 1550). Constantinople, biggest European city for almost 800 years, was already down to 100k in 1340 (1000: 500-800k). 

Well, a lot of figures ;). And the key message is: not a single city in Europe in 1340, a continent with 70-80 million inhabitants, came even close to the size of the Free Cities. And Italy, a region with over ten million inhabitants and the highest urbanization in the world in 1340 could not support cities bigger than 150-200k. 

And then contrast this to Volantis with 1 million (plus three other cities in with at least 200k), Braavos 600-800k. And all the other Free Cities with 200-500k. 

This leaves only one conclusion: the total population of Western Essos must be at least in the 40-50 million ballpark. 

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The Free Cities seem to be based more on the Carthage/Venice/Tyre type of city state model. What was the population of Venice for example, compared to the hinterlands they controlled? Was it really just 20% of the total?

It might have been more, but then they probably imported lots of food from beyond those hinterlands as well. 

The same could be true for some of the Free Cities though. Many of them are pretty close to the largely rural and agricultural Westeros, so they might be importing lots of provisions from there. 

[Arakan]

2 minutes ago, Khaleesi did nothing wrong said:

It might have been more, but then they probably imported lots of food from beyond those hinterlands as well. 

The same could be true for some of the Free Cities though. Many of them are pretty close to the largely rural and agricultural Westeros, so they might be importing lots of provisions from there. 

There is no indication in the books for mass food import from Westeros. Given the size of the Narrow sea, it's nature and the distances involved, plus the necessary overland transport, I also don't think mass food import/export is viable. And of course Westeros itself must prepare for multi-year winters. 

Western Essos must feed the Free Cities and the Roman Imperial model IMO is not feasible. 

 

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

12 minutes ago, Arakan said:

There is no indication in the books for mass food import from Westeros. Given the size of the Narrow sea, it's nature and the distances involved, plus the necessary overland transport, I also don't think mass food import/export is viable. And of course Westeros itself must prepare for multi-year winters. 

Western Essos must feed the Free Cities and the Roman Imperial model IMO is not feasible. 

 

The Narrow Sea is pretty narrow though, it is comparable to the Mediterranean Sea and as I'm sure we both know there was always lots of trade going on via that, foodstuffs included.

I would agree with you in general though in that GRRM seems to have made some cities a bit too large compared to how he describes their surrounding societies. This goes for Westeros as well. There you again have some cities with hundreds of thousands of inhabitants and then the rest of the country seems rather barren except for some castles and villages, whereas in reality the relation in medieval Europe was the opposite; You had huge amounts of towns and cities with populations in the 1000-10 000 range or so, but few urban centers much larger than that, and practically none as large as King's Landing or Oldtown. 

[rotting sea cow]

5 minutes ago, Khaleesi did nothing wrong said:

The Narrow Sea is pretty narrow though, it is comparable to the Mediterranean Sea and as I'm sure we both know there was always lots of trade going on via that, foodstuffs included.

Indeed, there is lot of commerce between Westeros and the Free Cities, but the former has little to offer beyond foodstuffs (including excellent wines). On the other hand, the Free Cities are a source of manufactured goods and luxury items.

[Arakan]

@Khaleesi did nothing wrong

I agree with you. Maybe I wasn't specific enough. Of course there will be food-related trade across the Narrow Sea but not to such a degree that that the Free Cities could rely on imports. 

To compare Western Essos again to the Roman Empire at its height 200 AD:

1 megalopolis vs. 2 megalopolis

3 "huge cities" vs. 7 "huge cities" (excluding the known colonies of Volantis, Selhorys with 200k wouldn't astonish me at all.

 

 

[Arakan]

3 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Indeed, there is lot of commerce between Westeros and the Free Cities, but the former has little to offer beyond foodstuffs (including excellent wines). On the other hand, the Free Cities are a source of manufactured goods and luxury items.

I was speaking of mass food import in any significant way, i.e. several million tons annually to feed a city like Braavos or Volantis. 

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

13 minutes ago, Arakan said:

@Khaleesi did nothing wrong

I agree with you. Maybe I wasn't specific enough. Of course there will be food-related trade across the Narrow Sea but not to such a degree that that the Free Cities could rely on imports. 

To compare Western Essos again to the Roman Empire at its height 200 AD:

1 megalopolis vs. 2 megalopolis

3 "huge cities" vs. 7 "huge cities" (excluding the known colonies of Volantis, Selhorys with 200k wouldn't astonish me at all.

 

 

Okay, then I agree with you as well. 

If I recall correctly either Selhorys or Volon Therys is described in one of the Tyrion chapters in ADWD as being as large as King's Landing, so there's that... 

[rotting sea cow]

33 minutes ago, Arakan said:

I was speaking of mass food import in any significant way, i.e. several million tons annually to feed a city like Braavos or Volantis. 

Well, the delta of the Rhyne looks quite populated so it is indeed possible there is a significant rural population. Myr, Lys and Tyrosh have fought over the disputed lands, control of the rural population maybe a reason (I don't know really). Braavos is out of the reach of the Dothraki so there might be significant hinterlands but also has access to large marine resources (but Sam mentions how expensive firewood is). I'd worry more about Pentos although Illyrio mentions he owns some farms, but anyway everything looks very unpopulated, and specially Qohor, just out of the Dothraki sea, and we know that the horselords don't like towns.

[Arakan]

@SeanF please have a read. I expanded my original thoughts quite a bit. Feedback is always appreciated   

[Universal Sword Donor]

On 12/12/2016 at 6:26 AM, Khaleesi did nothing wrong said:

Okay, then I agree with you as well. 

If I recall correctly either Selhorys or Volon Therys is described in one of the Tyrion chapters in ADWD as being as large as King's Landing, so there's that... 

He describes Selhorys as big enough to be a city in Westeros, so that leaves us anywhere from KL (500K) on down to White Harbor. Given how big Volantis is and its expressed desire to keep its "children" subservient -- keeping them as towns and under the sway of their militaries -- I can't imagine they are much larger than WH or Gulltown. That it is in inland river port instead of an ocean going port also limits the amount of traffic it can get.

[Free Northman Reborn]

I tend to temper any inflation of the combined Free Cities population with Tyrion's comment in Dance that the real riches lay in Westeros, not Western Essos. Meaning fertile agricultural land, mineral resources and everything else that a medieval society would value.

So I still believe Westeros has a larger total population than all the Free Cities combined, but that the Free Cities are simply far more urbanized. Maybe 15%-20% urbanized vs 3% urbanization in Westeros. Or something along those lines.

[SeanF]

On ‎12‎/‎12‎/‎2016 at 9:31 AM, rotting sea cow said:

I remember seeing an estimate on the population of Westeros based on the size of the armies involved in the WoFK. I don't remember the numbers though.

One thing you need to consider that until ~200 years ago Essos was bathed in blood. First came the Doom of Valyria, then the now Free Cities fought against each other and finally the Dothraki came from the  east.  All of this left the countryside severely unpopulated. This is well described in Tyrion chapters through the Flatlands and Rhoyne. Despite the land being "fertile" you scarcely see any people. Most of the population is concentrated  in the cities. From Selhorys to the south is probably a bit different, and probably there is also a significant population in the Disputed Lands, there must be a reason why they keep fighting for them.

Tyrion also refers to farms, orchards, mines, and villages inland.  There are big inland cities like Qohor, Norvos, Selhorys, so we can assume there's a large population in parts of the interior.

Overall, Western Essos is over a million square miles in size, so a population of 40-50 million is quite plausible.

[SeanF]

On ‎12‎/‎12‎/‎2016 at 11:48 AM, Arakan said:

There is no indication in the books for mass food import from Westeros. Given the size of the Narrow sea, it's nature and the distances involved, plus the necessary overland transport, I also don't think mass food import/export is viable. And of course Westeros itself must prepare for multi-year winters. 

Western Essos must feed the Free Cities and the Roman Imperial model IMO is not feasible. 

 

Agreed.  I don't doubt that foodstuffs are imported from Westeros, but I doubt if any Free City is dependent on Westeros for their staple diet.

[Nittanian]

On 12/20/2016 at 0:37 AM, Universal Sword Donor said:

He describes Selhorys as big enough to be a city in Westeros, so that leaves us anywhere from KL (500K) on down to White Harbor. Given how big Volantis is and its expressed desire to keep its "children" subservient -- keeping them as towns and under the sway of their militaries -- I can't imagine they are much larger than WH or Gulltown. That it is in inland river port instead of an ocean going port also limits the amount of traffic it can get.

Yandel mentions that Selhorys is larger than King's Landing and Oldtown in the Volantis chapter.

Quote

Yet years of expansion under the tigers gave Volantis control over several lesser cities, most notable amongst them the great river "towns" of Volon Therys, Valysar, and Selhorys (each larger and more populous than King's Landing or Oldtown). The Volantenes also control the Rhoyne as far as the tributary river Selhoru, and hold sway over the Orange Coast to the west. These lands are protected by slave soldiers against the Dothraki horselords, who sometimes test the Volantene defenses, and the other Free Cities, who attempt to grow stronger at the expense of their sister city.

 

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

6 hours ago, Nittanian said:

Yandel mentions that Selhorys is larger than King's Landing and Oldtown in the Volantis chapter.

 

Ah, so it was from The World of Ice and Fire and not ADWD. In any case it is pretty ridiculous. Considering that these places are only called towns in Essos that implies that places like Volantis and Braavos ought to have populations in the multiple millions, in which case these population figures given for the continent at large completely fall apart, and are also incomparable to the real world prior to the Industrial Revolution. 

Even "just" one million people was extremely rare for any city prior to that period, and you had gaps of many  hundreds of years where no city anywhere in the world was quite that large. Even the capitals of the various Chinese dynasties rarely reached that population figure as far as I know.