What if Rhaella had lived?

[All-Seeing Aye]

An interesting hypothetical I've been thinking of for a while: what if Rhaella Targaryen had survived giving birth to Daenerys?  We know that she had already crowned Viserys on Dragonstone.  The Targaryen fleet would still be destroyed at anchor during the vicious storm that occurred when Daenerys was born, but there is now an adult Targaryen who's effectively in charge on Dragonstone and with Ser Willem Darry (presumably) as her right hand.  The new Baratheon fleet under Stannis is still coming, however, and realistically since the Targaryen fleet was just smashed to pieces the island cannot be held.  So I do think it's certain that the Targaryens still flee Dragonstone (Rhaella would never surrender and turn over her children to the Baratheons, and the fact that she crowned Viserys suggests that she's still promoting her family as the rightful royal family).  Several possibilities emerge (most of this is pure speculation but I'll try to keep it as realistic as possible):

-I think the party still heads for Braavos, or at least another Free City (they're outside of the immediate reach of the new regime).  However, I think politically things change significantly.  While I think Rhaella was certainly marginalized from being a political actor in her own right in King's Landing, without Aerys and with the survival/future of her children at stake I think she becomes a political actor out of both necessity and choice.  She's a de facto Queen Regent for her son and, as evidenced by crowning Viserys on Dragonstone, is not about to renounce her family's rights and disappear.

-On the other hand, having an adult Targaryen in Essos will probably cause the Baratheons more consternation that just the children Viserys and Daenerys as in canon.  Is there diplomatic pressure to turn over or at least exile the Targaryens from Braavos?  Are there more active attempted assassinations?  I'm not sure.

-Jon Arryn went to Dorne in 284 AC on a mission to reconcile with House Martell.  We don't know exactly in the year this happened (before or after the birth of Daenerys), but regardless I think Doran and Oberyn will almost certainly be in contact with Rhaella and Ser Willem.  I think the secret marriage pact still goes ahead, only this time there's more urgency and Rhaella signs for House Targaryen (instead of Ser Willem as in canon), possibly still with the Sealord as witness.  I think Rhaella would be adamantly against Viserys marrying Daenerys regardless, borne out of her resentment of her own abusive marriage to her brother.

-One personal change I suspect is that Rhaella, as a mother and figure of authority, is able to restrain or at least check the madness of Viserys.  Certainly he was always more a son of Aerys than Rhaegar in that regard, but I think Rhaella would be a stabilizing influence.

-The remaining big question: when do the Targaryens cross the narrow sea to Dorne, marry Viserys to Arianne, and openly assert his claim?  I want to preface this speculation by noting that the potential for success is incredibly low (as it would have been in canon even without Rhaella).  Dorne cannot stand alone, but barring some extraordinary developments it will; the Stark-Lannister-Tully-Arryn-Baratheon coalition would crush any Dornish army and the Reach/crownlands/some houses in the riverlands (the other places to look for support for the Targaryens) would probably not rise.  I can't see the Targaryens crossing until Viserys is at least an early teenager, meaning 289 AC/290 AC as the earliest dates.  Certainly if the crossing happened while the rest of the coalition's forces were fighting against the Greyjoy Rebellion there could be some minor victories, but a victorious Robert would turn around and crush Dorne all the same afterwards.

-If (and this is a significant assumption) things go pretty much as they did in canon, the only real opportunity for a Targaryen restoration directed by Queen Regent Rhaella would be in the later stages or aftermath of the War of the Five Kings, when the rebel coalition has fractured.  Perhaps Rhaella would marry Daenerys off to Willas Tyrell to try to secure the Reach, and the armies of two kingdoms might be enough to sweep from the south into King's Landing, get support from any secret Targaryen loyalist houses, and establish regional hegemony before other regions can effectively react.  That said, even such a situation would be incredibly tenuous; more likely, like the Blackfyre Pretenders before them the Targaryens land and are beaten back across the narrow sea or crushed on the battlefield, even with a saner Viserys III and capable queen mother.

 

Any thoughts or further speculation?

[Lord Varys]

I don't think there would have been much change unless Rhaella were still alive by the time of the series. She would have gone into exile with Viserys III, Dany, and Ser Willem, and possibly have been able to stay in contact with more people than Viserys III after Darry died.

The Dornish plans would have been much more concrete in such a scenario and I'm not sure if we there would have been a Dothraki plan if Rhaella had still been alive at that point.

Considering that an exiled queen would have been a much more interesting curiosity than some children one would also assume that the Targaryens would have fared much better in the Free Cities, and Viserys might have turned out much better than he actually did.

[purple-eyes]

Actually one thing we can imagine in this case is that Rhaella can remarry. 

She is still in her late 30 so she can still marry and birth children. 

Since she is an exiled dragon queen and beautiful, probably she can manage to marry some rich and important guy. 

This will change a lot of plots. For example, Dany would not marry Drogo.

[PrinceHenryris]

Why couldn't Dorne stand alone?  Dorne held out against the Reach, Stormlands and Casterly Rock for centuries.  Aegon tried and ended up short a sister and a dragon.  While Daeron did theoretically conquer Dorne, that conquest lasted less than a year and cost Daeoron his life.

Could Robert and company have done any better?

[Laughing Storm Reborn]

Not the whole of dorne because they (the rhyonish at least)would guerrila warfare the hell out of robert's troops but sunspear would fall via maritime storming and that would be enough for the martells to stay put... 

[Ser Duncan of Flea Bottom]

Well, things would be way different, at least I think Viserys and Daenerys wouldn't be left in the streets, the servants would never dare to do it if Rhaella was still there, especially if a few loyals servants would be there to protect them, maybe Doran would have send a few loyal dornishmen to protect them.

As for the marriage pact, I think it would be way more valuable coming from Rhaella, as we know Ser Willem Darry was no more than the master-at-arms of the Red Keep and he was not even the Lord of Darry, that makes me wonder by what right he signed a marriage contract? Was it because he was a legal guardian of Viserys and Daenerys at the time?

Robert would still pursue them, sending his hired knives to slit their throats, but with Dorne helping them and maybe Braavos too, I am quite sure it would be harder to succeed and I wonder if Varys would be helping too. I started to believe Varys is not only a Blackfyre Supporter, but a Valyrian Supporter, ''Black or Red, a dragon is still a dragon''.

[Vaedys Targaryen]

I think some of you are forgeting that Rhaella was unstable; she had been in an abusive relationship with Aerys, (being both raped, brutalised and having everything she did carefully monitored and controlled), for a long time and as Jaime said, "her eyes had been closed for years". To top it off, she would've just had her eldest son, daughter-in-law and two grandchildren, who were both younger than four years old, brutally murdered, she would've just given birth and she's been exiled from her home. With these circumstances, I don't think Rhaella would've been able to do much at all, leaving most of everything to Darry. I suppose a lot of you would think that being away from Aerys would make her come out of her shell, but after so many years of abuse, it would take a while for her to come out of her shell.

Plus, has Rhaella ever even properly taken care of herself? She has never been independant and seen the world, meaning that she would depend of Darry to teach her how to and assuming he died when we were told he did, Rhaella would not know how to properly take care of herself, Viserys or Daenerys.

Sorry I'm being cynical.

[Mage of Hornets]

9 hours ago, PrinceHenryris said:

Why couldn't Dorne stand alone?  Dorne held out against the Reach, Stormlands and Casterly Rock for centuries.  Aegon tried and ended up short a sister and a dragon.  While Daeron did theoretically conquer Dorne, that conquest lasted less than a year and cost Daeoron his life.

Could Robert and company have done any better?

Dorne is good at playing defense, due to terrain, climate, guerrilla tactics. But they're described as the least populous of the seven kingdoms, so I don't think they have the manpower to head north and re-install the Targraryens on the iron throne... unless they forged an alliance with someone else in Westeros or Essos.

[Jon Fossoway]

An exiled queen? I can see her becoming some powerful prince's concubine or wife, as Lynesse did, and gaining power in Essos. Also, as a way to protect herself from the Iron Throne. 

[Mage of Hornets]

I don't remember reading much at all about Rhaella's personality, which makes it very hard to speculate about this scenario. Maybe she would have resisted selling Daenerys off to Drogo, thus preventing the sequence of events that led to Dany becoming an action hero? I doubt that she would have fallen in with Jon Connington, since 1. he was always more about supporting Rhaegar than Targaryens in general, and 2. Varys and Illyrio seem to be running Viserys/Dany and "Aegon" as separate operations.

[Dorian Martell's son]

21 hours ago, All-Seeing Aye said:

Any thoughts or further speculation?

We would have a completely different story. Most characters would be very different 

 

[Kaibaman]

On 14/12/2016 at 3:36 AM, Vaedys Targaryen said:

I think some of you are forgeting that Rhaella was unstable; she had been in an abusive relationship with Aerys, (being both raped, brutalised and having everything she did carefully monitored and controlled), for a long time and as Jaime said, "her eyes had been closed for years". To top it off, she would've just had her eldest son, daughter-in-law and two grandchildren, who were both younger than four years old, brutally murdered, she would've just given birth and she's been exiled from her home. With these circumstances, I don't think Rhaella would've been able to do much at all, leaving most of everything to Darry. I suppose a lot of you would think that being away from Aerys would make her come out of her shell, but after so many years of abuse, it would take a while for her to come out of her shell.

Plus, has Rhaella ever even properly taken care of herself? She has never been independant and seen the world, meaning that she would depend of Darry to teach her how to and assuming he died when we were told he did, Rhaella would not know how to properly take care of herself, Viserys or Daenerys.

Sorry I'm being cynical.

Agreed. I think after all the mental stress she has taken over the years from her brother/husband as well as the more recent trauma of losing many of her family members and then having her entire world turned upside down would have really made her a living wreck.

I have often thought that maybe she did survive giving birth to Dany but after all the distress she has endured, she would have been in a very fragile like Catelyn was right before she died. So after giving birth to Dany, Ser Williem might have faked her death and left her in the care of loyalists or made her join the Silent Sisters so that she would be taken care of by some Septas.

[Ser Duncan of Flea Bottom]

If she had lived, seeing that Aerys would be dead, I believe she could at least raise Viserys to be a bit different from Aerys.

[Lord Lannister]

It's entirely possible she may not even sail to the Free Cities as Darry did with the children. She knew a lot of people who might be willing to shelter her in Westeros.

House Darry for example kept the Targaryen banners in their basements, and it wouldn't be a stretch for Ser Willem to take them there. Their land is large enough for them to hide on without drawing undue notice, I would imagine.

Prince Doran's mother was one of Rhaella's handmaids. He'd certainly have the incentive and ability to house the Targaryens without notice. We already know Doran was receptive to secret marriage pacts and of course has issues with the current regime.

There's also that knight Rhaella was sweet on from the Stormlands. Ser Bonifer Hasty. He got religion after their romance failed, but I'm sure that he'd still jump at the chance to shelter her at need. Not sure if he has the lands or means to pull this off however, as he was a poor tourney knight. Disguising the Queen as a member of the Faith would be ironic.

[Curled Finger]

14 hours ago, Shadow of Asshai said:

If she had lived, seeing that Aerys would be dead, I believe she could at least raise Viserys to be a bit different from Aerys.

Nature vs. Nurture.   I read not that long ago but I can't recall which book it was that Viserys was already a problem as a young boy.   He wasn't like Rhaegar but he was already more like Aerys.   And Aerys sheltered him from everything.   Maybe Rhaella could undo some of it, but I remember wondering what changed Rhaegar's mind about being TPTWP when he already had a brother--was the brother obviously unfit to be a head of the dragon?   So hopelessly out of sync with Rhaegar's ideals that Rhaegar had to abandon his prophecy?   

To the larger topic I think we are underestimating the Targaryan sympathizers and loyalists.   If a Targ Queen had lived with an heir or 2 in tow I don't think Robert would have had such an easy time of things after the sack of Kings Landing.   That entire day was simply horrid and Robert sat at the head of all of it, accepting dead babies with the worst of them in attendance.  Not that Robert was a bad guy.   I think Tywin was pulling a lot of string with Robert in the early days of his war and reign.   Varys and Ilyrio were already up to their schemes well before the rebellion.    At the very least they would have scooped Rhaella up and propped her up in Pentos while sussing out their options to seat a Blackfyre.  Rhaella surviving would have probably made it even easier for them to come up with a much shorter game.    Jon Arryn was a peacemaker.  Dorne would have been all in on supporting Viserys and Old Ned may well have seen some wisdom in hitching his wagon to the dragons after acquiring Jon.   If there were dragons to support Jon.   Maybe.  Certainly someone would have seen the wisdom and quick end to Robert's reign in killing off Tywin.   A well organized coup could have been realized.  

The truth is there were many Targ loyalists despite nutbag Aerys.  A sane Targ King may have found a lot more support than a usurper.    

[Ser Duncan of Flea Bottom]

7 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Nature vs. Nurture.   I read not that long ago but I can't recall which book it was that Viserys was already a problem as a young boy.   He wasn't like Rhaegar but he was already more like Aerys.   And Aerys sheltered him from everything.   Maybe Rhaella could undo some of it, but I remember wondering what changed Rhaegar's mind about being TPTWP when he already had a brother--was the brother obviously unfit to be a head of the dragon?   So hopelessly out of sync with Rhaegar's ideals that Rhaegar had to abandon his prophecy?   

To the larger topic I think we are underestimating the Targaryan sympathizers and loyalists.   If a Targ Queen had lived with an heir or 2 in tow I don't think Robert would have had such an easy time of things after the sack of Kings Landing.   That entire day was simply horrid and Robert sat at the head of all of it, accepting dead babies with the worst of them in attendance.  Not that Robert was a bad guy.   I think Tywin was pulling a lot of string with Robert in the early days of his war and reign.   Varys and Ilyrio were already up to their schemes well before the rebellion.    At the very least they would have scooped Rhaella up and propped her up in Pentos while sussing out their options to seat a Blackfyre.  Rhaella surviving would have probably made it even easier for them to come up with a much shorter game.    Jon Arryn was a peacemaker.  Dorne would have been all in on supporting Viserys and Old Ned may well have seen some wisdom in hitching his wagon to the dragons after acquiring Jon.   If there were dragons to support Jon.   Maybe.  Certainly someone would have seen the wisdom and quick end to Robert's reign in killing off Tywin.   A well organized coup could have been realized.  

The truth is there were many Targ loyalists despite nutbag Aerys.  A sane Targ King may have found a lot more support than a usurper.    

Viserys had his issues, it was clear he was quite unstable, especially when he was all feverish about being a king, but Dany also mentioned he used to have his good side, he lost it when they had to sell their mother's crown, all his joy was gone. He became a douche and entiled, maybe he was one already, but if he had a good side, maybe a maternal figure could have undone some of Aerys' doings.

I think Rhaella was also weakened at that point, seeing that Aerys had been abusive towards her for years, but I do believe she could recover and become imporant for a possible Targaryen restoration. Although I can see Daenerys being favored more than Viserys, in case he was indeed cruel and mentally ill. Also, there is the (f)Aegon question, would Rhaella believe he was really Aegon? Would she think he was an impostor? 

[direpupy]

She could have made a new alliance with Dorne trough the betrophal of Viserys with Arrianne, but Dorne already wanted revenge so the would most likely support her anyway.

However far more important is that the army of the Reach is intact Mace Tyrell cut his banners instead of fighting when Ned showed up, but if Rhaella could offer Dany as a bride to willas those banners might go back up pretty fast.

Factor in the Targaryen loyalists in they other regions aspecialy in the Crownlands and the Riverlands and she has a pretty big army to fight Robert with. And if she remarried herself she could get an other alliance somwhere.

The main problem the Targaryens had after Rhaella died was that there was no adult in there family to take charge, so Rhaella surviving is actually a game-changer.

[Ser Duncan of Flea Bottom]

Yes, you are entirely right, the lack of an adult was a bad thing for Viserys and Daenerys, since Ser Willem Darry died, they were alone and mostly at the mercy of strangers, just like Illyrio, although Viseyrs was already an adult when they met Illyrio.

[Curled Finger]

15 hours ago, Shadow of Asshai said:

Viserys had his issues, it was clear he was quite unstable, especially when he was all feverish about being a king, but Dany also mentioned he used to have his good side, he lost it when they had to sell their mother's crown, all his joy was gone. He became a douche and entiled, maybe he was one already, but if he had a good side, maybe a maternal figure could have undone some of Aerys' doings.

I think Rhaella was also weakened at that point, seeing that Aerys had been abusive towards her for years, but I do believe she could recover and become imporant for a possible Targaryen restoration. Although I can see Daenerys being favored more than Viserys, in case he was indeed cruel and mentally ill. Also, there is the (f)Aegon question, would Rhaella believe he was really Aegon? Would she think he was an impostor? 

Good points all.   I'm thinking Rhaella was once in love with a mere mortal, Bonifer Hastings, wasn't it?  She married Aerys out of a sense of duty.   This duty is where I think Rhaella as a dragon would have accepted anyone or scheme that would have secured her progeny's crown. Rhaella as a woman who survived her mad brother and incalculable pain for years, may well have accepted fAegon or anyone could restore her power.    He or someone like fAegon would be a means to an end.    She wouldn't have to believe only claim to.  I think she may well have been the greatest supporter of a Targaryan Restoration by any means possible.   I just never got the vibe she was a public person.   But she knew right from wrong and was capable of rising to the call of duty.   The problem with a woman surviving as basically the only adult close enough to the crown to rule as a Targ is the probability that she could have been compromised in her desperate bid to secure the crown for her son.    

Dany's no shrinking violet.    She will support fAegon if he suits her purposes.   Though I do think it's more likely she will just obliterate him if he doesn't get in line with her program.   

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

I think Rhaelle married someone of high standing in Lys, say a Rogare (married to Viserys II long ago).  She may even play some importance in Lys politics by having babies with Lys dude and now his children have dragonlord blood. I think as some others have said she waits tell the War of 5 Kings to make her move. The Martell deal still goes down and Arraine Martell and Viserys III Targaryen marry. Daenerys will be married to Willas Tyrell I think as well. That brings Dorne and the Reach and a huge fleet from Lys to the Targaryen cause. In this case, Stannis destroys the Lannisters and takes Kings Landing only to find a larger army moving against him. Seeing how little loyalty and confidence Stannis inspires, I can see some Stormlords joining this Targaryen army. Now comes in those youger children. I see a possibility of new young Targs being married off to say Robb Stark and Robert Arryn with an agreement to give the North, Riverlands, and thr Vale more political freedom. This combined army could then smash Stannis's army in or around King's Landing, and the Lys and Redwyne navy could destroy Euron and Victorian....Although maybe Euron never takes power without the existance of a dragon having Daenerys, not really sure.