The puzzles of GRRM

[Prince of the North]

Just now, Macgregor of the North said:

No probs.

What you theorise is what I think one of his main objectives is! Hunting for ancient Dragon scrolls.

Also, I'll bet some of my wages that we hear of "Pate" trying to use the glass candle now that Marwyn has dashed off east.

A powerful instrument that thing is. Why would the FM not seek to use it.

Hmm...good point.  The glass candle is another possibility.  I mean, not only can glass candles be used to, theoretically, communicate with and/or influence people through their dreams but they could also be a pretty nifty means to even find them.  I don't know exactly how glass candles operate or what exactly they are capable of but, yes, the possibilities seem endless  

[JLE]

55 minutes ago, Lifestream said:

Well, Littlefinger says that the reason he can do the things he does is cause the nobles underestimate him and don't think of him as a threat.

Tyrion on the other hand sees the threat of Littlefinger as the Throne asks him for financial help all the time and when he becomes hand he sends him on errands away from KL.

I hope I remember those right. So considering all these, Littlefinger can guess/understand that Tyrion doesn't want him around. I also think the reason he targets tyrion isn't only because he's dangerous but also because he's the weakest of the Lannisters (not intellectually but his position). Tyrion already has enough enemies and many people undermine him.

Indeed. I actually don't believe Ned Stark was as bad a player of the game as he was made out to be by Littlefinger, with his grudge against the whole Stark family. Ned was not the first, and not the last, to fail to see Littlefinger as anything like the threat he truly was - nor believe that he could still carry a grudge against his entire family for the injuries that Ned had no part in giving him. In fact, new as Ned was to the backstabbing of the game of thrones, having avoided it most of his life and only even started in it a few months ago - he actually had Cersei, a decades-long veteran, pretty much beaten, and Cersei had feared this from the start (as shown in her first conversation with Jaime, overheard by Bran): all he needed was the goldcloaks even after Renly's desertion. If Littlefinger had been the small-time player Ned took him for, with no greater a goal than getting rich off the realm, he would never have dared side with Cersei, and certainly not have Ned executed, for the risk of starting a war. It's only because he is a major player, looking at the game of power, posing as a smaller one looking at the game of wealth, that he dares to throw the realm into war.

[estermonty python]

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

I read about the shaggy dog story in another asoiaf related thread (I didn't know about the term before) and most people assumed that GRRM planted the direwolf's name as a hint to the reader. However, Rickon's story is not either long nor involved! I ask then, is there another shaggy dog story story in the book that we are not aware of?

Well, his story isn't over yet.  Currently one of the most interesting POV characters is on an extremely involved mission to find him,  Clearly the story is about Jon and Bran and Sansa and Arya and NOT Rickon, so whatever adventures Davos gets into to find Rickon probably won't matter - making it a shaggy dog story of sorts.  

To answer your question though - yes, probably.  Quentyn's storyline was kind of a shaggy dog story, for one thing, although it did allow all the dragons to escape.  Arys Oakheart's POV could be considered a shaggy dog story, as could Oberyn Martell's backstory and plotline. If Stannis and Shireen both die, that will give that entire storyline a lot of shaggy dog elements as well.  Same with Faegon - that would be the biggest shaggydog story of all.  But if Davos goes through hell and back, only to have Rickon, like, die of a pox or something, that will be kind of hilarious in a GRRM sort of way.

[Cridefea]

3 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

You have your answer for the Alchemist so I'll chip in here. 

The key is supposed to open every door at the Citadel. 

LoL, thank you.  I know it opens all the door, but it was stolen to open a specific door and  for a specific purpose. Question is: which one?

If you are right and he is a FM (probably Jaq) who stole it for having access to the glass candle, then I'd like to know WHEN all this is happening. Because it could have already influenced some events/dreams/etc. that have already happened. I remember I had thought it was older than the other chapters, while I was reading it. But I can't recall why.

[Lifestream]

1 hour ago, JLE said:

Indeed. I actually don't believe Ned Stark was as bad a player of the game as he was made out to be by Littlefinger, with his grudge against the whole Stark family. Ned was not the first, and not the last, to fail to see Littlefinger as anything like the threat he truly was - nor believe that he could still carry a grudge against his entire family for the injuries that Ned had no part in giving him. In fact, new as Ned was to the backstabbing of the game of thrones, having avoided it most of his life and only even started in it a few months ago - he actually had Cersei, a decades-long veteran, pretty much beaten, and Cersei had feared this from the start (as shown in her first conversation with Jaime, overheard by Bran): all he needed was the goldcloaks even after Renly's desertion. If Littlefinger had been the small-time player Ned took him for, with no greater a goal than getting rich off the realm, he would never have dared side with Cersei, and certainly not have Ned executed, for the risk of starting a war. It's only because he is a major player, looking at the game of power, posing as a smaller one looking at the game of wealth, that he dares to throw the realm into war.

I think no one wanted Ned in the game. Except Robert. But as soon as Robert was gone, Ned's luck ran out.

I mean many other players, most obviously Cersei, have made bad decisions. But Cersei being Cersei has her own role to play so she hasn't died yet because the people actually playing the game still have use of her being alive.

Ned not so much, he hardly had allies in KL. If we can count Varys an ally, I could see why LF wanted to dispose of Ned or Tyrion before Varys makes good use of them.

Maybe Stannis could have made a decent ally to Ned, but if i remember right at that point Stannis was pretty far from KL.

 

It's just that the only one who wanted Ned was Robert and Robert many times chose to play blind, so Ned is this guy who comes out of nowhere to become King's Hand because Robert himself asked of him, not because it was the counsel given to him. I'm guessing no one wanted Ned in KL and he didn't have enough time to gain the loyalty of people in KL nor Robert's true support.

[Morgana Lannister]

6 hours ago, Lifestream said:

Well, Littlefinger says that the reason he can do the things he does is cause the nobles underestimate him and don't think of him as a threat.

 

Tyrion on the other hand sees the thread of Littlefinger as the Throne asks him for financial help all the time and when he becomes hand he sends him on errands away from KL.

I hope I remember those right. So considering all these, Littlefinger can guess/understand that Tyrion doesn't want him around. I also think the reason he targets tyrion isn't only because he's dangerous but also because he's the weakest of the Lannisters (not intellectually but his position). Tyrion already has enough enemies and many people undermine him.

All this is very true, but thinking about it (kind of brainstorming with myself here lol) is not so much what Tyrion does as Hand but what Tyrion surely learns as Master of Coin.  Okay, my theory doesn't hold together 100% in that he tried to frame Tyrion with the dagger business much before he could have suspected that he would succeed him as Master of Coin, but hey LF finds money "out of nowhere."  Does it have some dodgy deal going with the Bank of Bravoos or something I wonder... Tyrion should have figured this out by now, but as for before yes, you are right, he is dangerous because he is clever and also the easiest Lannister to attack without much repercusion.

I really would like to know about LF's ways of finding money all the time,  Does LF in turn has something on the Iron Bank that make them unable to decline a loan application as it were???  lol I think this and the hoarding of the food he is doing at the Vale may come into place and frankly can't wait.  May be disappointed and this plot may go no further, but I would love more on this plotline.

[[Deleted]]

5 minutes ago, Morgana Lannister said:

All this is very true, but thinking about it (kind of brainstorming with myself here lol) is not so much what Tyrion does as Hand but what Tyrion surely learns as Master of Coin.  Okay, my theory doesn't hold together 100% in that he tried to frame Tyrion with the dagger business much before he could have suspected that he would succeed him as Master of Coin, but hey LF finds money "out of nowhere."  Does it have some dodgy deal going with the Bank of Bravoos or something I wonder... Tyrion should have figured this out by now, but as for before yes, you are right, he is dangerous because he is clever and also the easiest Lannister to attack without much repercusion.

I really would like to know about LF's ways of finding money all the time,  Does LF in turn has something on the Iron Bank that make them unable to decline a loan application as it were???  lol I think this and the hoarding of the food he is doing at the Vale may come into place and frankly can't wait.  May be disappointed and this plot may go no further, but I would love more on this plotline.

I'm fairly certain we'll find the source of Littlefinger's financial wizardry. In fact, I think it's a crucial plot point as it may reveal what exactly his goals are and how deeply he has woven his web. We still don't really know what it is Littlefinger wants, but you have to assume one as scheming as him does have an endgoal in sight that only he himself knows of.

My guess is Littlefinger has bled the Lannisters dry, and possibly used their wealth as leverage to get more money out of the Iron Bank. But anything is on the table, really. Does he have ties to some Iron Islanders and asks them to fund him and in exchange he will work to grant independence to the Iron Islands? Does he have some connections to some raiding sell sword parties in Essos? At this point, the best we can say is "Who friggin' knows."

[Lifestream]

1 hour ago, Morgana Lannister said:

All this is very true, but thinking about it (kind of brainstorming with myself here lol) is not so much what Tyrion does as Hand but what Tyrion surely learns as Master of Coin.  Okay, my theory doesn't hold together 100% in that he tried to frame Tyrion with the dagger business much before he could have suspected that he would succeed him as Master of Coin, but hey LF finds money "out of nowhere."  Does it have some dodgy deal going with the Bank of Bravoos or something I wonder... Tyrion should have figured this out by now, but as for before yes, you are right, he is dangerous because he is clever and also the easiest Lannister to attack without much repercusion.

I really would like to know about LF's ways of finding money all the time,  Does LF in turn has something on the Iron Bank that make them unable to decline a loan application as it were???  lol I think this and the hoarding of the food he is doing at the Vale may come into place and frankly can't wait.  May be disappointed and this plot may go no further, but I would love more on this plotline.

I'm not sure, but doesn't Tyrion try to minimize some of the Crown's spending while he's a King's hand because he doesn't wanna rely on LF? Or at least he is intending to do so.

I could be wrong so feel free to correct me.

[Morgana Lannister]

2 hours ago, Aegonzo The Great said:

I'm fairly certain we'll find the source of Littlefinger's financial wizardry. In fact, I think it's a crucial plot point as it may reveal what exactly his goals are and how deeply he has woven his web. We still don't really know what it is Littlefinger wants, but you have to assume one as scheming as him does have an endgoal in sight that only he himself knows of.

My guess is Littlefinger has bled the Lannisters dry, and possibly used their wealth as leverage to get more money out of the Iron Bank. But anything is on the table, really. Does he have ties to some Iron Islanders and asks them to fund him and in exchange he will work to grant independence to the Iron Islands? Does he have some connections to some raiding sell sword parties in Essos? At this point, the best we can say is "Who friggin' knows."

Well, IMHO, Baelish was badly injured psychologically and I can even sympathise with him lol  I remember a second cousin or someone like that of my mother's in Spain (I am English with a Spanish mother) who he reminds me of massively!  For all it's worth this guy IRL was considered "nothing" by the likes of my Basque family but he rose to huge wealth, just to prove a point...and have to have a mansion like place atop the village to prove it and he went to great lengths to do in in real life lol.  Baelish is like him, "me thinks", he has to prove his worth to himself and anyone else who listens.  He disdains Lannisters and Starks alike but he has to have "their secrets" or he would just simply not be needed.  I am one for believing he has something on the Iron Bank that if revealed in plain light would bring them down. (tinfoil stretch but hey...) I would assume that Petyr, Tyrion and Varys have the highest IQs in the series which are also topped up with astute skills...  One without the other just leads to guys like Sam, probably super IQ and with some cunning... but not quite the level of these 3...

Petyr so far has proven "the best" player so far, and his "mysteries" in my mind, the best... I will be sad to see him go I have to say but if in the hands of whom I think will do it...oh, hey! 

Your idea is possible and could fit but I personally believe he is blackmailing the Head or Heads or the Iron Bank but who knows...

 

[JLE]

My biggest guess about the Iron Bank is: They're over-leveraged, have lent more than they can afford to people who are never going to be able (or in some cases willing) to pay it back, and likely to crash if this is ever revealed, and urgently need to recoup their investments from good loans to make up for the inevitable reveal of their losses on bad loans.

"I owe the bank a thousand: I have a problem. I owe the bank a billion: The bank has a problem."

[The Hammer of Justice]

I always thought LF left the crown indebted on purpose, as he said to Sansa in the Eyrie, he expected Cersei to left the kingdom bankrupt, because of the loans he himself made

[black_hart]

A mini-mystery related Jon Arryn and Bran assassination mysteries: Who was Lysa's / LF's agent in delivering Lysa's letter (together with the lenses) to Winterfell.

[Greywater-Watch]

On ‎16‎.‎12‎.‎2016 at 11:12 PM, Morgana Lannister said:

I really would like to know about LF's ways of finding money all the time,  Does LF in turn has something on the Iron Bank that make them unable to decline a loan application as it were???  lol I think this and the hoarding of the food he is doing at the Vale may come into place and frankly can't wait.

Littlefinger is (probably) the first Master of Coin speculating (successfully), buying goods (e.g. grain) when they are cheap and abundant and selling them at high price when they are scarce. Just like he starts to do it in the Vale. No wizardry, just modern stock exchange mechanism applied in Westeros.

[The Hammer of Justice]

1 hour ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Littlefinger is (probably) the first Master of Coin speculating (successfully), buying goods (e.g. grain) when they are cheap and abundant and selling them at high price when they are scarce. Just like he starts to do it in the Vale. No wizardry, just modern stock exchange mechanism applied in Westeros.

I agree, Littlefinger's money doesn't come only from loans, he resembles a modern businessman, he invests his money (brothels for example), what he does is turn money into more money

[A Bong of Ice and Fire]

On 12/13/2016 at 7:34 PM, The Hammer of Justice said:

The Alchemist is the man once known as Jaqen H'agar, I think that is pretty much a known fact

Do you know why he calls himself an alchemist, though?  It's because he can turn lead into gold, i.e. he gave Pate a gold coin in exchange for a lead key.  (Or if not lead, whatever metal it was.)

[A Bong of Ice and Fire]

On 12/16/2016 at 1:24 PM, Cridefea said:

LoL, thank you.  I know it opens all the door, but it was stolen to open a specific door and  for a specific purpose. Question is: which one?

The one that contains the only copy of The Death of Dragons.  The Faceless Men want to know how to kill dragons.  They are the ancient enemies of the dragonlords of Valyria, after all.  And their God sure sounds a lot like the Great Other that opposes the Red God.

Watch out, Dany, Jon, and Tyrion.  And beware of Arya in your midst.  Jacqen H'agar recruited and trained her for a reason.  I really doubt she's free from the Faceless Men death cult. 

[The Hammer of Justice]

5 hours ago, A Bong of Ice and Fire said:

Do you know why he calls himself an alchemist, though?  It's because he can turn lead into gold, i.e. he gave Pate a gold coin in exchange for a lead key.  (Or if not lead, whatever metal it was.)

I don't know, maybe he assumed the identity of a man who was an alchemist, or maybe it was just a cover. And about the gold coin, remember that faceless men use poisoned gold coins to kill their targets, as seen in the Arya chapter The Ugly Little Girl in aDwD

[Cridefea]

On 31/12/2016 at 5:24 PM, A Bong of Ice and Fire said:

The one that contains the only copy of The Death of Dragons.  The Faceless Men want to know how to kill dragons.  They are the ancient enemies of the dragonlords of Valyria, after all.  And their God sure sounds a lot like the Great Other that opposes the Red God.

Watch out, Dany, Jon, and Tyrion.  And beware of Arya in your midst.  Jacqen H'agar recruited and trained her for a reason.  I really doubt she's free from the Faceless Men death cult. 

Yes it could be. Either that or  the glass candle. But I think there could be another reason to steal a key. It could be very useful if you want to manipulate events anonymously: if you want that someone (Sam??) enter in a room to discover what might help him to find out something that changes the story. And being Pate could help too.

[Curled Finger]

On 12/13/2016 at 1:45 PM, Lady of Whisperers said:

Good write up : 

I wood add missing characters to the list:

What happened to Benjen Stark and Tyrek Lannister?

Quaithe: Who is she and why is she helping Daenerys? 

 

And Olyvar Frey and the Westerling boy.