The Fall of Aleppo

[Arakan]

@OldGimletEye

Again, I don't care about the personal beliefs of Samantha Power because in this case they are completely and totally irrelevant. She didn't speak as a private person but as UN ambassador she spoke as the VOICE OF THE USA. And under this perspective the hypocrisy is unbearable. 

IN OTHER NEWS: the Russian ambassador to Turkey has been killed at a Art Vernissage in Ankara. Killer was supposedly a policeman and shouted ALLAHU AKBAR and FOR SYRIA. 

 

[OldGimletEye]

7 minutes ago, Arakan said:

@OldGimletEye

Again, I don't care about the personal beliefs of Samantha Power because in this case they are completely and totally irrelevant. She didn't speak as a private person but as UN ambassador she spoke as the VOICE OF THE USA. And under this perspective the hypocrisy is unbearable. 

 

So critiquing her rationale for interventionism isn't relevant?

I get your point. But, your not getting mine.

[Arakan]

3 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

So critiquing her rationale for intervention isn't relevant?

I think you don't get me. Her words are utterly laughable for me. Again when she speaks as UN ambassador. 

How can I take the words of her serious when at the same time Saudi Arabia bombs the shit out of Yemen, under protection of the US and with US/UK equipment. Pray tell me: how? By the way: cool stuff, UK, selling the Saudis fucking CLUSTER BOMBS. 

 

[OldGimletEye]

4 hours ago, Arakan said:

I think you don't get me. Her words are utterly laughable for me. Again when she speaks as UN ambassador. 

How can I take the words of her serious when at the same time Saudi Arabia bombs the shit out of Yemen, under protection of the US and with US/UK equipment. Pray tell me: how? By the way: cool stuff, UK, selling the Saudis fucking CLUSTER BOMBS. 

 

I'm not asking you to do that. I never have.

I never claimed she wasn't being hypocritical in her speech.

Go back and read my original comment that started this whole thing.

I made a specific comment about interventionism and Samantha Powers view of it. For some reason, you took issue with that comment.

 

[Arakan]

3 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

 

I made a specific comment about interventionism and Samantha Powers view of it. For some reason, you took issue with that comment.

 

Yes, I did. Because if there is one thing in life I hate, it is hypocrisy. 

OGE, I think we are on the same side in many things. And I take your word that Mrs Power really believes in ideals. But then she should do the right thing and quit as UN ambassador and work for a NGO. 

[snake]

31 minutes ago, Arakan said:

@OldGimletEye

Again, I don't care about the personal beliefs of Samantha Power because in this case they are completely and totally irrelevant. She didn't speak as a private person but as UN ambassador she spoke as the VOICE OF THE USA. And under this perspective the hypocrisy is unbearable. 

IN OTHER NEWS: the Russian ambassador to Turkey has been killed at a Art Vernissage in Ankara. Killer was supposedly a policeman and shouted ALLAHU AKBAR and FOR SYRIA. 

 

I also read, unconfirmed, that the shooter said "we die in Aleppo you die here"

Russian television is already blaming Western powers.  I predict soon there will be anonymous sources leaking that the Russian intelligence community has proof that the CIA was somehow involved and maybe even more senior US officials. 

I expect the bombing of rebel strongholds by Russian forces may soon start again and be much more intensive.

[OldGimletEye]

20 minutes ago, Arakan said:

 

 

I don't disagree with what you're fundamentally saying.

But, I wanted to make a broader point about Ms. Powers. Which I think her "ideals" are misguided and dangerous. I certainly would not want her brand of liberal interventionism to take hold in the Democratic Party. 

[Tijgy]

18 minutes ago, snake said:

I also read, unconfirmed, that the shooter said "we die in Aleppo you die here"

 

He was/is apparently also a police officer. 

 

[Arakan]

8 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

I don't disagree with what you're fundamentally saying.

But, I wanted to make a broader point about Ms. Powers. Which I think her "ideals" are misguided and dangerous. I certainly would not want her brand of liberal interventionism to take hold in the Democratic Party. 

Nothing to disagree. Honestly I prefer rational players in leading political positions  even though they might be assholes. 

The reason why Helmut Schmidt is my favorite German Bundeskanzler of all time. And he, himself First Lieutenant in the Wehrmacht and survivor of the Eastern Front, always said that politicians who themselves never served in the military or lived through war, shouldn't decide about war and peace. His rationale: they don't know shit what suffering in war means and when you don't know shit how it feels to see your friends die, see children dying and you yourself don't have to face the consequences, it's fucking easy to declare war. And he was so right...Bush junior, Blair, Wolfiwitz, Cheney...

For this reason I respect McCain how is hardcore anti-torture...he knows what torture means. 

[Kalbear]

There is something to be said about military or ex-military as politicians. I don't like that simply because I believe for the most part that people who have been taught to see the world in a certain way with a certain toolset will continue to do so, and you need a balance. 

That said, it used to be almost a requirement that our politicians served in the military for at least some period of their lives, and did so honorably. It is a disappointment that this is no longer the case.

[OldGimletEye]

10 minutes ago, Arakan said:

Nothing to disagree. Honestly I prefer rational players in leading political positions  even though they might be assholes. 

The reason why Helmut Schmidt is my favorite German Bundeskanzler of all time. And he, himself First Lieutenant in the Wehrmacht and survivor of the Eastern Front, always said that politicians who themselves never served in the military or lived through war, shouldn't decide about war and peace. His rationale: they don't know shit what suffering in war means and when you don't know shit how it feels to see your friends die, see children dying and you yourself don't have to face the consequences, it's fucking easy to declare war. And he was so right...Bush junior, Blair, Wolfiwitz, Cheney...

For this reason I respect McCain how is hardcore anti-torture...he knows what torture means. 

As somebody that has been a soldier, I can appreciate Mr. Schmidt's viewpoint.

The problem that I have with people like Ms. Powers is I think they tend to hand wave all the problems that can develop during a military conflict or operation. I think if you've been a soldier, you're not inclined to be overly optimistic about things, as you generally can't afford to be.

As another famous German, Mr. Moltke,  was purportedly to have said: No Battle Plan Survives Contact With The Enemy.
 

[Arakan]

2 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

As somebody that has been a soldier, I can appreciate Mr. Schmidt's viewpoint.

The problem that I have with people like Ms. Powers is I think they tend to hand wave all the problems that can develop during a military conflict or operation. I think if you've been a soldier, you're not inclined to be overly optimistic about things, as you generally can't afford to be.

As another famous German, Mr. Moltke,  was purportedly to have said: No Battle Plan Survives Contact With The Enemy.
 

100% agreement here. As soldier I served in 2 foreign peace missions (2002 in Bosnia, 2003 Afghanistan). While Bosnia at that time was ok, Afghanistan was even back then already a joke and most of my comrades and myself started to ask wtf are we actually doing here. Reality on the ground didn't match the words of the politicians. And this was in 2003! the joke only became bigger and bigger...

[Arakan]

@OldGimletEye 

here the quote of Schmidt: 

"People who never experienced war but themselves declare or provoke war, don't know what horrible things and mischief they do."

wiser words have never been said. You can imagine his opinion on the Iraq war and how much he detested Obama's drone war...oh how much I miss politicians of his calibre. The last generation who had personal integrity...

[Arakan]

Things in Syria are getting more and more interesting. Erdogan has now in the public accused the US to actively support terrorists, namely the YPG (ok nothing new) AND Daesh/IS. He said he has photo and video evidence. 

Furthermore Turkey is involved in some heavy fighting against IS at Al Bab, at least 17 Turkish soldiers died in the fight against IS since Wednesday. 

Source: Spiegel

Unfortunately the Guardian had no article about this. 

On another note: the whole clusterfuck which is Syria seriously undermines NATO as organization. I really wonder what happens when Trump finally gets in office. But one thing is for sure: cannot be worse than under Obama wrt foreign policy. 

 

[Wouter]

The public attack of Erdogan on the US is remarkable. While the assertion that the US supports Daesh is ludicrous, meanwhile the US is supporting the YPG/SDF offensive on Tabqah and Raqqa. I wonder what will happen once Al-Bab has finally fallen and Erdogan makes good on his promise to attack the YPG/SDF in Manbji.

It's also fully unclear to me what either Obama/Kerry or Trump/Flynn/Mattis would do once it comes to serious fighting between Turkish army and YPG/SDF. Will the Kurds be dropped like a hot potato, or is the relationship with Turkey now so bad that the US may side with the Kurds? Or can they control the situation so that it doesn't come to full-blown fighting to take Manbji?

Meanwhile, the cease-fire doesn't appear to take much of a  hold in practice. There is still bombing and fighting in some of the rebel pockets near Damascus, as well as parts of Hama and south-Aleppo.

 

[snake]

Wouter,

That's because the ceasefire does not extend to groups that Russia and Turkey deem terrorist organizations.  So that's quite a few groups that are still considered legitimate targets by Turkey, Russia and the Syrian government.

[Wouter]

11 hours ago, snake said:

Wouter,

That's because the ceasefire does not extend to groups that Russia and Turkey deem terrorist organizations.  So that's quite a few groups that are still considered legitimate targets by Turkey, Russia and the Syrian government.

I don't think so. The attacks don't seem to be limited to Nusra, Daesh and YPG (the latter on the shitlist of Turkey). Places like the Wadi-Barada pocket near Damascus or attacked by air and foot right now, and those aren't know as particular Al-Nusra strongholds (and Daesh nor YPG are near).

I don't think this ceasefire will last longer than the earlier ones.

[snake]

4 hours ago, Wouter said:

I don't think so. The attacks don't seem to be limited to Nusra, Daesh and YPG (the latter on the shitlist of Turkey). Places like the Wadi-Barada pocket near Damascus or attacked by air and foot right now, and those aren't know as particular Al-Nusra strongholds (and Daesh nor YPG are near).

I don't think this ceasefire will last longer than the earlier ones.

So far, despite the sporadic clashes, the ceasefire seems to be holding.  Cross our fingers I guess.

[Arakan]

On 31.12.2016 at 5:29 PM, snake said:

So far, despite the sporadic clashes, the ceasefire seems to be holding.  Cross our fingers I guess.

Problem is that quite a few of "non-extremist" opposition forces (i.e. mostly jihadist groups not explicitly on a war path with "the West") are too entangled with groups like Al Nusra...

Real peace negotiations will only start when Al Nusra is utterly defeated. IS has isolated themselves quite a lot at this stage. And the Turks will up the ante after what had happened in Istanbul. Erdogan simply has to push harder in Syria because otherwise the situation in Turkey could really explode...Seculars vs. Religious vs. Kurds. He needs victories in Syria and many dead jihadists to show the press. 

Anyway, without Jabhat Fateh al Sham, the military effectiveness of the anti-government forces approaches "not relevant". Sooner or later KSA and Qatar will cut their losses and real peace talks will start. I expect November/December this year. 

IS will obviously take more time to defeat. But this depends also on the progress made in Iraq. At this stage it is virtually impossible to say what will happen when Mossul is finally freed from IS. Two options: IS more or less collapses including  infighting or they will go out with a final "hurrah". 

[DireWolfSpirit]

While the government was marshalling its resources to liberate Aleppo, the rebels have retaken Palmyra. ISIL are holding public executions and destroying Syrian antiquities. The ancient ruins they are demolishing are irreplaceable traces of our earliest civilization. Its beyond disgusting. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/isis-destroys-palmyra-monument_us_5881e83be4b070d8cad1e412