Battle's of Tumbleton

[Adam Yozza]

So, the numbers in these battle's have always confused me and I was wondering if anyone could help clarify.

In the First Battle of Tumbleton, the Black's are said to have 9000 men. First question, where did these men come from? We know that some were Riverlords and Northmen from the Battle by the Lakeshore; but given what we know of that battle, these men couldn't be more than 3/4000; while more came from Tumbleton itself as well as Bitterbridge and Longtable. It seems unlikely though that the Reachmen there could have numbered  5/6000 men on their own, especially considering the Caswell's would have taken casualties at the Honeywine.

The size of the Green army at Tumbleton also seems like it hasn't been thought out. It says the Black's were greatly outnumbered by the Green's, so I'd say that'd have to be at least twice as many to justify the use of the word 'greatly'. But again, where did these numbers arrive from. The Hightower army itself; including it's loyal vassal's like the Cuy's and Bulwer's; took very heavy casualties and in fact nearly lost the Battle of the Honeywine. So even after meeting up with the Roxton's, Peake's and other house's that supported Aegon did they manage to have so many men?

Thirdly, how many men must the Green's have lost in the First Battle. They lose a thousand in the Second Battle of Tumbleton following which it's described that the host was now no longer a threat to King's Landing. While it is true that there were desertions now, it's always confused me as to why such a large host is now virtually useless. The only way for that to be possible is for the Green's to have lost as many or more than the Black's in the First Battle of Tumbleton, isn't it?

Any help is appreciated.

[Lord Corlys Velaryon]

1 hour ago, Adam Yozza said:

First question, where did these men come from?

• Tumbleton, Bitterbridge, & Longtable were pretty major seats in the northern Reach, so there may have been a number of lesser Houses that sent several dozen to a few hundred men each that could all add up. Particularly as we know that the Reach was actually quite divided between the two factions & it was really only the dragons which turned things for the Greens.
• With Highgarden out of the picture, Tumbleton was the next best "Harrenhal" (where the Riverlanders were able to gather after Daemon captured it with Caraxes) for the Reach being so far away from the Greens' host for so long & rather close to KL for the best chance of receiving dragon support.
• It's possible that more Riverlanders joined the North-Trident forces as they marched south & perhaps also pro-Black Crownlanders &/or Valemen.

1 hour ago, Adam Yozza said:

But again, where did these numbers arrive from?

This is definitely less of a problem than that of the Blacks' forces imo:

• The Greens' "heavy" losses at the Honeywine may only refer to (relative) numbers instead of a high % too - say they have 10k at the Honeywine & lost 2.5k (between the dead & those too injured to continue), they still have 7.5k men.
• Not even including their vassals, the Hightowers could marshal perhaps up to 5k (perhaps even more) from Oldtown (perhaps a few hundred from the City Watch) & its direct lands (they're insanely rich & so could afford to call up higher proportions of men than almost any other family). Their vassals are rather powerful lords in their own rights who should be good with marshaling ~1k each. Peake should easily have been able to do +2k between three major castles (hell, Dunstonbury was likely on the Mander towards its mouth!), perhaps even ~4k like the Freys in AGoT. Fossoway would be +1k. Lesser lords/high landed knights like Roxton would be able to bring hundreds each.
• Perhaps at least some Blacks defected to the Greens after they were defeated (like Grandison, Cafferen, & Fell for Robert after Summerhall), particularly as Daeron had the only dragon active in the Reach for a long time.
• On that, Tessarion's participation as they moved up the Mander would've meant that previously isolated Greens could join with the Greens' host. Perhaps also some initial neutralists who then joined with the Hightowers, etc out of opportunism or simple survival if they passed by them direct.
• The Reach can field 80-100k in ASoIaF (perhaps not even including full militarisation, not full Hightower commitment, &/or sidelined Redwyne fleet until the end of ACoK) & this was after a period of ~75 years of peace & prosperity under Jaehaerys & Viserys - ~20k men or even more shouldn't have been a problem for the Greens by Tumbleton imo.

2 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

Thirdly, how many men must the Green's have lost in the First Battle?

The Riverlanders had a lot of archers among their foot. Roddy the Ruin lead a surprise & devastating sortie directly aimed at the Hightower leadership. It was likely in the thousands. I think the desertions certainly hurt the numbers as well also, particularly as they were there for weeks & weeks. I think the host was no longer a threat to KL though because of the leadership losses in the First, the instability of such afterwards, & those lost in the Second, Unwin Peake took control & likely said "fuck this shit", especially as the Baratheons & their men were still doing nothing & should've linked with them long before (one of the reasons the Reach-Greens stayed at Tumbleton so long for).

[Universal Sword Donor]

"The blacks defending it numbered nearly 9,000, including troops from Bitterbridge, Longtable, and the Riverlands, as well as the Winter Wolves. "

[Lion of the West]

As mentioned in the excellent post by Lord Corlys Velaryon the Green Reacher lords shouldn't have much of a problem to raise some 20 000 men given that both Hightower and Peake were with them and a bunch of other lords. The great advantage of having a mighty House like Hightower, where also a quarter of the royal treasure was deposited, would also allow for a serious employment of sellswords. And just because the Hightowers had some issues at the start, presumebly before Peake, Fossoway etc. could join up don't mean that they were few in numbers to start with.

Also 9000 isn't impossible when uniting the remnants from several beaten armies together with reinforcements from the north.

In regards to the part that Unwin Peake lacked strength to press one, the problem wasn't to my knowledge that he lost to many men in battle. The problem was that he had lost pretty much the ranking leadership, couldn't get the dragons mounted and desertion was draining the army which perhaps had to do with the loss of both Prince Daeron, the Hightowers and many other lords (iif the Caltrops are any indication). And in fact I would think that the lack of the dragons as well as a lack of, well, Targaryens to fight for was an issue. When Lord Peake went home Daeron, Heleane and Aemond were confirmed as dead and Aegon was missing while two of Aegon's children were also dead. Its not, to me, inconcivable, that Unwin Peake decided the war was lost anyway and so didn't want to get killed for a lost cause or anger the Blacks more than needed.

[The Grey Wolf]

Warning: Long post ahead.

The numbers are indeed one of the issues with the incomplete manuscript we have at the moment. For example, in TPATQ it says that 2000 die on both sides in the Fishfeed but in TWOIAF it says only that the Lannisters died in their thousands, which implies way more than 2000 died. Plus, if the Fishfeed really is the bloodiest battle in the Dance as described and yet only 4000 died in total I'll eat crow.

A bigger problem in my opinion is the Greens.

One, they're way too underpowered in my opinion. Not only do they have fewer dragons but they also have no naval strength on top of which the Blacks have more Great Houses supporting them. I mean just look to the end of the Dance. The Riverlands, the North, the Iron Islands (in name), and (probably) the Vale still somehow had men with which to fight for the Blacks but the Lannisters, Baratheons, and Hightowers were apparently spent.

Two, the whole thing about the Greens being in control of the treasury and the three largest cities doesn't ever amount to anything. I mean its not like we hear of them hiring a shit ton of sellswords and sellsails or anything else that would take advantage of that wealth.

Three, and worst, in my opinion, are the battles themselves. The Greens just seem too incompetent to take seriously. I mean practically every battle they win is pyrrhic or through treachery and battles that should be easy victories for them are lost.

To elaborate on the last point, I'll go through the individual battles one by one:

Assault on Harrenhal: Nothing to mention.

Battle of the Burning Mill: Nothing to mention given the lack of information though considering the Blackwoods have Daemon and his dragon with them it makes sense that the Brackens lost. The bigger question then is why was this battle so significant that it got mentioned in TWOIAF?

Sack of Duskendale: Nothing to mention.

Battle of Rook's Rest: Not one-sided or unrealistic per say insofar as any battle having dragons can be realistic but having Aegon II incapacitated that early in the war is from a story perspective rather unsatisfying IMO.

Battle of the Gullet: This is where the trend really starts.The Triarchy loses little over two-thirds of its fleet and plays (as far as we know) no more of a role in the war on account of those casualties after sacking Driftmark yet the Velaryon fleet lost only a third of its strength and would play an important role up until the very end of the Dance.

Battle of the Honeywine: The fact that Ormund Hightower got himself surrounded on three sides and had to be bailed out by Daeron on Tessarion really doesn't speak well to his leadership. Plus, they took heavy casualties, which seems to be a thing with the Greens.

Fall of King's Landing: Nothing to say.

Battle of the Red Fork: The Greens win but (yet again!) at the heavy price of losing their top commander (Lord Jason Lannister) in the FIRST battle between the Westerlands and the Riverlands. To make matters worse we're not even given any details concerning the other Westerlands victories mentioned in TWOIAF that followed such that the next time they appear its at...

The Fishfeed: I've already made my beef with the numbers clear above. Only going to add that the Riverlands are seriously OP. They take out the Westerlands, the Crownlands, and the Reach Greens with as far as we know minimal help from the Vale and the North!

The Butcher's Ball: The Greens lose hard and worse IMO Ser Criston Cole dies like a chump. Seriously, this is the freaking Kingmaker! Why the hell is he so underwhelming and incompetent when the books built him up so much to be this powerful but controversial figure?!

The First Battle of Tumbleton: The Greens not only would have lost if the Two Betrayers hadn't made the choice to turn their cloaks over but moreover somehow the Winter Wolves cut through ten times their numbers to slay BOTH senior commanders BEFOREHAND. I get GRRM wanted to make the Northmen badass but did it have to come at the expense of the Hightowers? I mean Roddy the Ruin gets his arm chopped off by a longaxe yet still managed to kill both his opponents!

Fall of Dragonstone: Nothing to mention.

Battle above the Gods Eye: Nothing to mention.

Riot of King's Landing/Storming of the Dragonpit: Nothing to mention except I found this to be the coolest part and firmly believe that this was just the smallfolk doing their own thing rather than some conspiracy by the Greens, Faith, or Citadel as others posit. Oh, and most definitely more than just hundreds should have died.

The Second Battle of Tumbleton: Nothing to mention except that again the Greens lose hard with many of their top commanders dying whereas the Blacks just lose random minor lords.

Battle of the Kingsroad: The most egregious of them all. Borros Baratheon is defeated by the forces of the Riverlands despite enjoying far superior numbers and his troops while unblooded being well-rested in the ONLY battle the Stormlands fight. On top of that the Ironborn are at this time still reaving the Westerlands and Cregan Stark is marching down the Kingsroad with a fresh army in the name of the Blacks. Why, GRRM? Why did you make things this one-sided? You couldn't have the Baratheons defeat the Tullys/Arryns and THEN lose to the Starks in a great battle for the kingdom or have the Ironborn attack the North for the Greens instead or something similar that would have made more sense from both a military and narrative perspective?

Anyway, to sum up my thoughts, numbers are the LEAST of the Dance's problems.

[Lion of the West]

On 2016-12-16 at 8:07 PM, The Grey Wolf said:

Lots of text.

An excellent post!

The the string of outright Black victories and Green phyrric victories make it about as one-sided as Aegon's conquest and infact Aegon's conquest was less unstoppable than the Blacks in the Dance due to Dorne never falling.

 

[Adam Yozza]

Excellent post @Lord Corlys Velaryon. Thank you, it was a great help.

On 16/12/2016 at 2:12 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

• Tumbleton, Bitterbridge, & Longtable were pretty major seats in the northern Reach, so there may have been a number of lesser Houses that sent several dozen to a few hundred men each that could all add up. Particularly as we know that the Reach was actually quite divided between the two factions & it was really only the dragons which turned things for the Greens.
• With Highgarden out of the picture, Tumbleton was the next best "Harrenhal" (where the Riverlanders were able to gather after Daemon captured it with Caraxes) for the Reach being so far away from the Greens' host for so long & rather close to KL for the best chance of receiving dragon support.
• It's possible that more Riverlanders joined the North-Trident forces as they marched south & perhaps also pro-Black Crownlanders &/or Valemen.

I know Tumbleton was a pretty important strategic and economic location; last line of defense against the Green Reachmen before KL, somewhere for the Black's to rally (like Harrenhal), could be used to starve a Green controlled KL and had some thriving market's; but I never saw it as particularly strong militarily. On top of that, the Caswell were involved in the Battle of the Honeywine and lost their commander their. I wouldn't see them as being able to send many men to Tumbleton. You are right though, Hugh and Ulf are the only reason the Green's won.

But if I'm not giving Tumbleton's strength enough credit and some other Riverlands/Crownlands forces joined them between the Butcher's Ball and Tumbleton then it makes more sense.

On 16/12/2016 at 2:12 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

This is definitely less of a problem than that of the Blacks' forces imo:

• The Greens' "heavy" losses at the Honeywine may only refer to (relative) numbers instead of a high % too - say they have 10k at the Honeywine & lost 2.5k (between the dead & those too injured to continue), they still have 7.5k men.
• Not even including their vassals, the Hightowers could marshal perhaps up to 5k (perhaps even more) from Oldtown (perhaps a few hundred from the City Watch) & its direct lands (they're insanely rich & so could afford to call up higher proportions of men than almost any other family). Their vassals are rather powerful lords in their own rights who should be good with marshaling ~1k each. Peake should easily have been able to do +2k between three major castles (hell, Dunstonbury was likely on the Mander towards its mouth!), perhaps even ~4k like the Freys in AGoT. Fossoway would be +1k. Lesser lords/high landed knights like Roxton would be able to bring hundreds each.
• Perhaps at least some Blacks defected to the Greens after they were defeated (like Grandison, Cafferen, & Fell for Robert after Summerhall), particularly as Daeron had the only dragon active in the Reach for a long time.
• On that, Tessarion's participation as they moved up the Mander would've meant that previously isolated Greens could join with the Greens' host. Perhaps also some initial neutralists who then joined with the Hightowers, etc out of opportunism or simple survival if they passed by them direct.
• The Reach can field 80-100k in ASoIaF (perhaps not even including full militarisation, not full Hightower commitment, &/or sidelined Redwyne fleet until the end of ACoK) & this was after a period of ~75 years of peace & prosperity under Jaehaerys & Viserys - ~20k men or even more shouldn't have been a problem for the Greens by Tumbleton imo.

I had always imagined that the Hightower's alone could raise about 5000 men with their loyal vassals; Cuy and Bulwer; providing 2000 each. When I read 'heavy casualties I pictured about a third dead, leaving 6000 to meet up with the other Green reach lords. In addition, it had slipped my mind that the Peake's had three castle's at that point in time so I was probably underestimating their numbers. This, combined your explanation that survivors from the Honeywine like Mullendore, Costayne and Beesbury defected after their defeat makes a lot of sense and would almost completely explain Green numbers at Tumbleton.

On 16/12/2016 at 2:12 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

The Riverlanders had a lot of archers among their foot. Roddy the Ruin lead a surprise & devastating sortie directly aimed at the Hightower leadership. It was likely in the thousands. I think the desertions certainly hurt the numbers as well also, particularly as they were there for weeks & weeks. I think the host was no longer a threat to KL though because of the leadership losses in the First, the instability of such afterwards, & those lost in the Second, Unwin Peake took control & likely said "fuck this shit", especially as the Baratheons & their men were still doing nothing & should've linked with them long before (one of the reasons the Reach-Greens stayed at Tumbleton so long for).

The Riverlands archers I didn't consider. If what we saw of the Blackwood archers in particular in previous battles are any indication then they would have wrecked havoc among the Green's.  

The Ruin's charge doubtless was devastating, but in an army of 20,000 (give or take) how much damage could he do to their numbers with only 6/7 hundred men. At most I'd say some 3000 men, provided each Winter Wolf killed at least 6 men before dying. But yeah the main blow Dustin struck was at their leadership when he killed Bryndon and Ormund.

Desertions prior to the Second Battle weren't explicitly mentioned so I forgot to take them into account.

Peake returning home was probably more to do with the loss of the dragons and the lack of leadership (losing most of the main leaders of the army) combined with the fact that (as @LionoftheWest reminded me) Aegon was still missing-presumed-dead at this point, with both of his sons, sister-wife and two brothers also being dead.

 

[Adam Yozza]

@The Grey Wolf I agree with some points, but I disagree with others.

On 16/12/2016 at 7:07 PM, The Grey Wolf said:

One, they're way too underpowered in my opinion. Not only do they have fewer dragons but they also have no naval strength on top of which the Blacks have more Great Houses supporting them. I mean just look to the end of the Dance. The Riverlands, the North, the Iron Islands (in name), and (probably) the Vale still somehow had men with which to fight for the Blacks but the Lannisters, Baratheons, and Hightowers were apparently spent.

While it is true that the Green's start off with less dragons than the Black's, it actually evens out due to the size of the dragons. The Green's have Vhagar; the largest alive at the time; and both Sunfyre and Dreamfyre; among the largest. In contrast, the Black's only have Caraxes in the same league (not counting Silverwing or Vermithor here, because they were only brought into play later by Jace/Corlys being very clever). On the flip side, the Velaryon boys dragons are quite young and small (only 1/5 the size of Vhagar) and Syrax and Maelys aren't notably large either.

The Redwyne fleet; I believe; declared for Aegon, though I may be mistaken. Oldtown has a small fleet also, I think and the Triarchy also backs Aegon.

Also, the North and Vale aren't actually involved in any battles until the very end (aside from the Winter Wolves and a contingent of Vale Knights dispatched at some point) because it took Cregan a long time to gather his troops and the only path's the Vale could march an army along were blocked with ice and snow.

The Ironborn attacked the West when they were vulnerable and their armies were gone. They never fought a direct battle, and so didn't take many casualties.

On 16/12/2016 at 7:07 PM, The Grey Wolf said:

Three, and worst, in my opinion, are the battles themselves. The Greens just seem too incompetent to take seriously. I mean practically every battle they win is pyrrhic or through treachery and battles that should be easy victories for them are lost.

I think there might be a reason for the Green's incompetence. Most of their supporters seem to be the opportunistic and ambitious lords. They don't have the experienced and skilled commanders on their side. For example, the Black's in the Reach have veteran commanders like Alan Tarly, Thaddeus Rowan, Tom Flowers and Owen Costayne in contrast to the inexperienced and not very talented Ormund. Of the Riverlands, veteran Robb Rivers joins the Black's and Clubfooted Larys Strong joins the Green's; military strength for Black, political and intrigue for Green. The same can be seen in pretty much all regions.

On 16/12/2016 at 7:07 PM, The Grey Wolf said:

Battle of Rook's Rest: Not one-sided or unrealistic per say insofar as any battle having dragons can be realistic but having Aegon II incapacitated that early in the war is from a story perspective rather unsatisfying IMO.

I disagree. Aegon being incapacitated here gives Rhaenys story more impact and it makes sense seeing as he is never described as being very martially inclined.

On 16/12/2016 at 7:07 PM, The Grey Wolf said:

Battle of the Gullet: This is where the trend really starts.The Triarchy loses little over two-thirds of its fleet and plays (as far as we know) no more of a role in the war on account of those casualties after sacking Driftmark yet the Velaryon fleet lost only a third of its strength and would play an important role up until the very end of the Dance.

Battle of the Honeywine: The fact that Ormund Hightower got himself surrounded on three sides and had to be bailed out by Daeron on Tessarion really doesn't speak well to his leadership. Plus, they took heavy casualties, which seems to be a thing with the Greens.

In regards to the Gullet, I think the main reason the Triarch doesn't play more of a part is because the heavy losses inflicted by the dragons caused the alliance to fall apart, and shortly afterwards Pentos, Braavos and Volantis moved in and defeated the now separating Myr, Lys and Tyrosh.

The Honeywine: As I said, Ormund doesn't seem to have much talent for command, but in fairness he was up against a coalition of four capable and experienced veteran's.

On 16/12/2016 at 7:07 PM, The Grey Wolf said:

The Fishfeed: I've already made my beef with the numbers clear above. Only going to add that the Riverlands are seriously OP. They take out the Westerlands, the Crownlands, and the Reach Greens with as far as we know minimal help from the Vale and the North!

The Butcher's Ball: The Greens lose hard and worse IMO Ser Criston Cole dies like a chump. Seriously, this is the freaking Kingmaker! Why the hell is he so underwhelming and incompetent when the books built him up so much to be this powerful but controversial figure?!

The Fishfeed: Actually, it isn't stated that the Fishfeed was the bloodiest battle of the Dance. It is the bloodiest land battle, by which I assume it means that no dragons were involved. Looking over the numbers for the other non-dragon battles, this is actually correct if the armies at the Butcher's Ball and the Kingsroad routed without many losses after they lose their commander. I'd also point out that the main reason for the Lannister defeat was the combination of Riverlands archers and Dustin charging the Lannister lines 5 times in order to break it.

The Butcher's Ball: I would have liked to see Cole fight, but I also somewhat like the idea of him begging for single combat only to be denies and taken down by arrows. I wouldn't call him incompetent; he offers to fight one on one with Roddy the Ruin, Garibald Grey and Pate of Longleaf who are all described as great fighters. It clearly parallel's Cortnay Penrose in Clash, which I quite like. The numbers in this battle were quite even and the Riverlords/Northmen have the advantage of ambush and archers.    

On 16/12/2016 at 7:07 PM, The Grey Wolf said:

somehow the Winter Wolves cut through ten times their numbers to slay BOTH senior commanders BEFOREHAND. I get GRRM wanted to make the Northmen badass but did it have to come at the expense of the Hightowers? I mean Roddy the Ruin gets his arm chopped off by a longaxe yet still managed to kill both his opponents!

The Second Battle of Tumbleton: Nothing to mention except that again the Greens lose hard with many of their top commanders dying whereas the Blacks just lose random minor lords.

First Battle of Tumbleton: I'm willing to forgive this because of how much I loved the moment Dustin leads the Northmen out of that gate. Besides. Plus, as George as stated many times, the history of Westeros we know is only what the characters in 300 AC know so it may be that the amount of people Dustin and the WW killed are heavily exaggerated (as may be the case in a lot of battle's).

Second Battle of Tumbleton: The Green's losing so many commanders is mainly to do with the infighting within the camp than anything else, which makes sense in the situation. But I'd argue that the loss of Addam Velaryon would have been a significant blow to the Black's, not to mention that it was the loss of their last dragon, while (at that point) the Green's still had Ulf and Silverwing.

On 16/12/2016 at 7:07 PM, The Grey Wolf said:

Battle of the Kingsroad: The most egregious of them all. Borros Baratheon is defeated by the forces of the Riverlands despite enjoying far superior numbers and his troops while unblooded being well-rested in the ONLY battle the Stormlands fight.

This is the one I had the biggest problem with too. It seems like GRRM wanted to highlight the badassery and importance of Black Aly and the Lads. But it should have been handled differently. It could have been done so that Borros' arrogance was used against him; he hears that he's against a pair of kids and a woman and so he falls for a trap or something. Maybe the Riverlords fake a retreat and lure Borros further up the Kingsroad to where the Northmen and Valemen could flank him and break the army. Black Aly could still lead the archers to slaughter the Stormlands Knights, Kermit can still kill Borros, Cregan can break the flank and Ben could have been the one to engineer the whole thing. A more realistic defeat and the main player's still get to be awesome.

[Lion of the West]

On 2016-12-18 at 7:22 PM, Adam Yozza said:

@The Grey Wolf I agree with some points, but I disagree with others.

Grey Wolf has not answered so I hope you won't mind if I take it on myself to answer as the topic is of interest to myself.

On 2016-12-18 at 7:22 PM, Adam Yozza said:

While it is true that the Green's start off with less dragons than the Black's, it actually evens out due to the size of the dragons. The Green's have Vhagar; the largest alive at the time; and both Sunfyre and Dreamfyre; among the largest. In contrast, the Black's only have Caraxes in the same league (not counting Silverwing or Vermithor here, because they were only brought into play later by Jace/Corlys being very clever). On the flip side, the Velaryon boys dragons are quite young and small (only 1/5 the size of Vhagar) and Syrax and Maelys aren't notably large either.

I can't claim to be all that into the dragons so I would seem that the Greens have somewhat larger dragons, but the presence of all those wild dragons on Dragonstone makes it fairly fast so that the Blacks gain a significant advantage in regards to dragons.

On 2016-12-18 at 7:22 PM, Adam Yozza said:

The Redwyne fleet; I believe; declared for Aegon, though I may be mistaken. Oldtown has a small fleet also, I think and the Triarchy also backs Aegon.

If Redwyne did declare for the Greens he did nothing at all with his fleet, if it at this point was of great significance, and so his potential support effected to nothing. And the Triarchy came late to the fight and were destroyed before they could provide any kind of naval superiority to the Greens.

On 2016-12-18 at 7:22 PM, Adam Yozza said:

Also, the North and Vale aren't actually involved in any battles until the very end (aside from the Winter Wolves and a contingent of Vale Knights dispatched at some point) because it took Cregan a long time to gather his troops and the only path's the Vale could march an army along were blocked with ice and snow.

The problem is that with the naval rule of the Blacks, those troops can also be shipped from harbors as is evident given that both Northmen and Valemen were present in King's Landing at the time of the riots. And it also means that even if the Greens would manage to somehow defeat the Blacks already in the field, then a new fresh wave of Black troops are coming.

On 2016-12-18 at 7:22 PM, Adam Yozza said:

The Ironborn attacked the West when they were vulnerable and their armies were gone. They never fought a direct battle, and so didn't take many casualties.

Not at first, until Lady Joanna paid her debts to the Ironmen.

On 2016-12-18 at 7:22 PM, Adam Yozza said:

I think there might be a reason for the Green's incompetence. Most of their supporters seem to be the opportunistic and ambitious lords. They don't have the experienced and skilled commanders on their side. For example, the Black's in the Reach have veteran commanders like Alan Tarly, Thaddeus Rowan, Tom Flowers and Owen Costayne in contrast to the inexperienced and not very talented Ormund. Of the Riverlands, veteran Robb Rivers joins the Black's and Clubfooted Larys Strong joins the Green's; military strength for Black, political and intrigue for Green. The same can be seen in pretty much all regions.

I am afraid this makes no sense. Being oppertunistic and ambitious is not exclusive to experience and skill. And in fact I can't recall any mention that Rowan, Tarly or Costayne would have been any more skilled or experienced than Peake, Hightower or Fossoway.

Furthermore I see, with the knowledge that we have, any kind of drift for military skill towards the Blacks. The Brackens seems for example to have declared for the Greens and they are renowned for being brawny idiots. The only exception I can think of is Daemon Targaryen who had experience in war from the Stepstones. And in fact I doubt that there were all that many veterans around given that the only wars being waged were either the Stepstones or possibly the Dornish border, but in such a case then Peake would have been fairly seasoned as a Marcher Lord.

On 2016-12-18 at 7:22 PM, Adam Yozza said:

I disagree. Aegon being incapacitated here gives Rhaenys story more impact and it makes sense seeing as he is never described as being very martially inclined.

Problem is that its still two dragons against one, and one of them being Vhaegar, and it even then ends with equal losses for the two sides in terms of dragons.

The only bonus to it was the touching story about Aegon and Sunfyre and the heroic loyalty to his master that Sunfyre showed over the story. Such tales of loyalty and love touch the heart and makes eyes wet.

On 2016-12-18 at 7:22 PM, Adam Yozza said:

In regards to the Gullet, I think the main reason the Triarch doesn't play more of a part is because the heavy losses inflicted by the dragons caused the alliance to fall apart, and shortly afterwards Pentos, Braavos and Volantis moved in and defeated the now separating Myr, Lys and Tyrosh.

Which is kind of a point about how useless the Essosi are. One lost fleet and the whole thing falls appart.

On 2016-12-18 at 7:22 PM, Adam Yozza said:

The Honeywine: As I said, Ormund doesn't seem to have much talent for command, but in fairness he was up against a coalition of four capable and experienced veteran's.

I must ask for references that his faced veteran commanders? But its true that he seems to have fared badly in this his first battle.

On 2016-12-18 at 7:22 PM, Adam Yozza said:

The Fishfeed: Actually, it isn't stated that the Fishfeed was the bloodiest battle of the Dance. It is the bloodiest land battle, by which I assume it means that no dragons were involved. Looking over the numbers for the other non-dragon battles, this is actually correct if the armies at the Butcher's Ball and the Kingsroad routed without many losses after they lose their commander. I'd also point out that the main reason for the Lannister defeat was the combination of Riverlands archers and Dustin charging the Lannister lines 5 times in order to break it.

Given how powerful the Westerlands are supposed to be, I'm willing to believe this was the bloodiest non-dragon battle.

On 2016-12-18 at 7:22 PM, Adam Yozza said:

The Butcher's Ball: I would have liked to see Cole fight, but I also somewhat like the idea of him begging for single combat only to be denies and taken down by arrows. I wouldn't call him incompetent; he offers to fight one on one with Roddy the Ruin, Garibald Grey and Pate of Longleaf who are all described as great fighters. It clearly parallel's Cortnay Penrose in Clash, which I quite like. The numbers in this battle were quite even and the Riverlords/Northmen have the advantage of ambush and archers.    

Given that I take it you are a fan of the Blacks I can see the appeal but for me there's no appeal here. And it certainly don't explain why he's built up to be of so great significance when he kind of just walzed around, got outsmarted at every turn and denied a grand exit as well. He's litterally nothing for Jamie to mention to Loras in regards to being both best and worst of the KIngsguard.

Also given how the entire Green army was destroyed I dare say that at least half or so of the Greens were killed or captured. There certainly were not any remnants to regroup which could do something against the Blacks in either the west or the east

On 2016-12-18 at 7:22 PM, Adam Yozza said:

First Battle of Tumbleton: I'm willing to forgive this because of how much I loved the moment Dustin leads the Northmen out of that gate. Besides. Plus, as George as stated many times, the history of Westeros we know is only what the characters in 300 AC know so it may be that the amount of people Dustin and the WW killed are heavily exaggerated (as may be the case in a lot of battle's).

That could be the explaintion but at the end of it, its just fan service to the fans of the Blacks over reasonable events in the war.

On 2016-12-18 at 7:22 PM, Adam Yozza said:

Second Battle of Tumbleton: The Green's losing so many commanders is mainly to do with the infighting within the camp than anything else, which makes sense in the situation. But I'd argue that the loss of Addam Velaryon would have been a significant blow to the Black's, not to mention that it was the loss of their last dragon, while (at that point) the Green's still had Ulf and Silverwing.

In a way yes, but in a way no. The reason for their suprise is that the Two Betrayers proved themselves to be, well, betrayers and so brought the Green focus from the Blacks to the two rogue dragonriders.

In regards to Ulf, he went rogue after the battle, and I would argue he did so before the battle as well, and tried to press for the throne, and thus died a traitor's death.

On 2016-12-18 at 7:22 PM, Adam Yozza said:

This is the one I had the biggest problem with too. It seems like GRRM wanted to highlight the badassery and importance of Black Aly and the Lads. But it should have been handled differently. It could have been done so that Borros' arrogance was used against him; he hears that he's against a pair of kids and a woman and so he falls for a trap or something. Maybe the Riverlords fake a retreat and lure Borros further up the Kingsroad to where the Northmen and Valemen could flank him and break the army. Black Aly could still lead the archers to slaughter the Stormlands Knights, Kermit can still kill Borros, Cregan can break the flank and Ben could have been the one to engineer the whole thing. A more realistic defeat and the main player's still get to be awesome.

Yes, your scenario would seem to make alot of more sense to me as well.

 

[Adam Yozza]

1 hour ago, LionoftheWest said:

Grey Wolf has not answered so I hope you won't mind if I take it on myself to answer as the topic is of interest to myself.

Not at all. It is of quite a bit of interest to me as well.

I can't claim to be all that into the dragons so I would seem that the Greens have somewhat larger dragons, but the presence of all those wild dragons on Dragonstone makes it fairly fast so that the Blacks gain a significant advantage in regards to dragons.

Yeah the wild dragons tipped the balance fairly quickly, but that advantage doesn't last long. Hugh and Ulf (the bastards) betray the Black's and take the biggest wild dragons with them. Jace and Vermax die not long after hatching the idea, with both Luke and Rhaenys having died with their dragons prior to this.

If Redwyne did declare for the Greens he did nothing at all with his fleet, if it at this point was of great significance, and so his potential support effected to nothing. And the Triarchy came late to the fight and were destroyed before they could provide any kind of naval superiority to the Greens.

I may have been mistaken with Redwyne but I'm sure I remember something about Dalton hitting the Redwyne fleet. Thinking about it, that may be post-war when he went raid happy on the western coast. I'll check and see if it ever happened and if so when.

The Triarchy didn't do much, true. Though I think its worth noting that they did do damage to the Velaryon's which it seems they never recovered from. In addition they captured Viserys which, although he was eventually recovered, put the Black's succession in a dangerous situation after Jace's death.

The problem is that with the naval rule of the Blacks, those troops can also be shipped from harbors as is evident given that both Northmen and Valemen were present in King's Landing at the time of the riots. And it also means that even if the Greens would manage to somehow defeat the Blacks already in the field, then a new fresh wave of Black troops are coming.

They could ship troops to KL but neither the Vale or the North has a particularly large fleet to do this with. While some of the Velaryon fleet might be dispatched to aid with this, they were mostly kept at the Gullet for the blockade. So while some Northmen and Valemen could be sent to help, it would mainly be small contingents. Yeah, even if they won all their early battles, the Greens were doomed from the start.

Not at first, until Lady Joanna paid her debts to the Ironmen.

Indeed

I am afraid this makes no sense. Being oppertunistic and ambitious is not exclusive to experience and skill. And in fact I can't recall any mention that Rowan, Tarly or Costayne would have been any more skilled or experienced than Peake, Hightower or Fossoway.

I did explain my idea poorly, didn't I? I did not mean to imply that opportunistic and ambition meant one couldn't be skilled. In the Reach, it was the older and experienced Lords that declared for Rhaenyra (I will answer your question regarding Rowan, Tarly and Costayne a bit further on) and the younger less experienced Lords that fought for the Green's. Not true everywhere of course. Jason Lannister seems to have been a decent commander (competent if nothing else) but he was killed in a battle that his army won, leaving Lannister leadership with old and cautious Lefford. 

Furthermore I see, with the knowledge that we have, any kind of drift for military skill towards the Blacks. The Bracken's seems for example to have declared for the Greens and they are renowned for being brawny idiots. The only exception I can think of is Daemon Targaryen who had experience in war from the Stepstones. And in fact I doubt that there were all that many veterans around given that the only wars being waged were either the Stepstones or possibly the Dornish border, but in such a case then Peake would have been fairly seasoned as a Marcher Lord.

The Dornish raids are probably the way most Lords could gain command/battle experience during Jahaerys/Viserys reign. And while I would normally agree that Peake should be experienced due to this, he's never struck me as a very brave or martially inclined man. Tarly, on the other hand, is also quite close to the border and that family has a history of being warriors.

Problem is that its still two dragons against one, and one of them being Vhaegar, and it even then ends with equal losses for the two sides in terms of dragons.

Vhagar is a game changer but Maelys is a fair bit faster due to her smaller size. I could see the smaller dragon inflicting some gruesome wounds on Sunfyre before getting caught by the larger dragons. And I wouldn't say it was equal losses. Sunfyre was crippled true but he did play a role later as did Aegon. Rhaenys and Maelys on the other hand were killed.

The only bonus to it was the touching story about Aegon and Sunfyre and the heroic loyalty to his master that Sunfyre showed over the story. Such tales of loyalty and love touch the heart and makes eyes wet.

Tales of loyalty and love are some of the best, imo. That's why I'm such a fan of Addam Velaryon.

Which is kind of a point about how useless the Essosi are. One lost fleet and the whole thing falls appart.

I wouldn't say it was the fleet's destruction that caused the breakdown. After all, the remaining ships went on to sack Driftmark and then returned to the Triarch, presumably so they could do repairs and bolster their numbers before returning to finish the job. We don't know all the causes, just that the Triarch broke down.

I must ask for references that his faced veteran commanders? But its true that he seems to have fared badly in this his first battle.

*See below the quote.

Given how powerful the Westerlands are supposed to be, I'm willing to believe this was the bloodiest non-dragon battle.

Given that I take it you are a fan of the Blacks I can see the appeal but for me there's no appeal here. And it certainly don't explain why he's built up to be of so great significance when he kind of just walzed around, got outsmarted at every turn and denied a grand exit as well. He's litterally nothing for Jamie to mention to Loras in regards to being both best and worst of the KIngsguard.

Fair enough. You are right I am a fan of the Black's; though some of the Green's are just as good IMO (Daeron, Jon Roxton etc).

Also given how the entire Green army was destroyed I dare say that at least half or so of the Greens were killed or captured. There certainly were not any remnants to regroup which could do something against the Blacks in either the west or the east.

Half being killed is probably about right. The remains would have been scattered and leaderless, and wouldn't have regrouped until another Green commander operated in the Riverlands/Crownlands (which none did until the end).

That could be the explaintion but at the end of it, its just fan service to the fans of the Blacks over reasonable events in the war.

It could be, but the name Winter Wolves has always given me the impression that these guys were more than just your average soldier.

In a way yes, but in a way no. The reason for their suprise is that the Two Betrayers proved themselves to be, well, betrayers and so brought the Green focus from the Blacks to the two rogue dragonriders.

Yeah that would be one of the main reasons Addam was able to pull off such a successful attack. Though he did visit the isle of faces prior to the battle, maybe he knew when the prime time to attack would be beforehand. 

In regards to Ulf, he went rogue after the battle, and I would argue he did so before the battle as well, and tried to press for the throne, and thus died a traitor's death.

He and Hugh both died the deaths they deserved.

Yes, your scenario would seem to make alot of more sense to me as well.

Thank you, it's the one I plan on using in a story I'm writing.

 

From the wiki: "Both sides suffered heavy casualties, with Rhaenyra losing seasoned commanders in Tom Flowers, Ser Alan Beesbury, Lord Alan Tarly, and Lord Owen Costayne."

 

[The Grey Wolf]

On 12/23/2016 at 2:09 AM, LionoftheWest said:

Text

On 12/23/2016 at 4:33 AM, Adam Yozza said:

Text

Warning: Long post ahead

Sorry for my lack of a response. With finals over I've been to my dislike quite lazy.

Anyway, to address LionoftheWest and Adam Yozza's points:

On dragons: Not only are the Greens outnumbered but thanks to the whole "wild dragons" thing the fact that they have the biggest really becomes a non-issue. After all Vhagar is in the end just one dragon. On top of that the fact that Helaena goes mad so early in the war (which pisses me off since GRRM seems to have a habit of making mothers go mad after losing their children with other examples including Catelyn, Cersei, Lysa, and Theon's mother), depriving the Greens of Dreamfyre in the process, is another issue. Beyond that the fact that they only gain an advantage when two of their enemies decide to turn rogue rather than through any plan or effort on their part does not a legitimately threatening enemy make.

On the Redwyne fleet: Considering that it was intact enough to ferry the Westermen on their retaliatory campaign against the Iron Isles I'd say the Redwyne fleet played no part in the Dance which, as LionoftheWest pointed out, is the point. If they did declare for the Greens they should have done something such as sailed north to relieve the Westerlands WHILE Aegon II was alive.

On the North/Vale/Iron Islands: According to Ran the Vale supplied Rhaenyra with 10000 men so clearly there were some battles we just don't know about with only the current text. (My personal fan theory is that the Royces declared for Aegon II as a big "f*** you" to Daemon.) The North I'll concede since the text explicitly mentions that Cregan Stark was pissed at Aegon II's poisoning not just because it was dishonorable but also because it denied his men death and glory. The Iron Islands, as LionoftheWest pointed out, did experience direct battles during Johanna Lannister's counterattack and the taking of both Kayce as well as Fair Isle both would have been proper battles. Finally, the Greens being doomed from the start, as Adam Yozza claims, is BAD storytelling and sadly, to a certain extent, he isn't wrong.

On experience: The Blacks do have the most seasoned commanders in Daemon and Corlys but that still brings up the question of why for example is Tom Flowers a seasoned commander? As far as we know the only war in recent memory was the War for the Stepstones. Apart from that all you have are raids from Dorne, beyond the Wall, and in the Mountains of the Moon. Furthermore, even if we concede that the Blacks have a overall superior number of competent generals that doesn't mean the Greens shouldn't get a few good ones themselves, WHICH. JUST. DOESN'T. HAPPEN. Seriously, the most competent and badass Green is poor Sunfyre, and he's a dragon! Oh, and the Peakes definitely are a highly martial family so I find you insinuation of Lord Unwin's character to be unfounded. Not only are they Marcher Lords too but they at that time still owned three castles, would later play a prominent role in the first two Blackfyre Rebellions, and launch a third all by themselves, which, considering that they weren't crushed immediately and that the royal host included men from outside the Reach as well, makes them pretty warhawkish to me.

On Rook's Rest: Nonetheless, having the leader/figurehead of one out of two factions practically nonexistent for half the war does not work well from a literary perspective, which was my main point. And Meleys wouldn't have been much faster. She was an old, lazy dragon that hadn't hunted for food in a while at the time of her death.

On the Triarchy: They should have played a larger role instead of being a one-scene wonder, particularly given the attention they receive in TRP. Also, we know how the Triarchy fell apart. One admiral from one of the Free Cities was murdered by another from one of the other Free Cities over the affections of the Black Swan, the niece of miserly Lord Swann who was carried off by the Lyseni yet became a courtesan who ruled the city in all but name. Btw, of all this happens while the Dance is winding down, preventing not only the Triarchy from sending more aid but also later preventing Tyland Lannister from hiring sellswords for Aegon II. Yeah, can the Greens get any more unlucky I ask?

On the Fishfeed: Nothing to say except that, as Adam Yozza pointed out, the Fishfeed was canonically the bloodiest battle of the Dance ON LAND and it did not feature dragons.

On Second Tumbleton: The casualties and success are accurate for a surprise night attack. My point was that in it we still see a troubling trend with regards to the Greens. That they take heavy casualties AND lose their commanders whereas the Blacks always just lose minor lords with no significance. For example, in the Battle of the Kingsroad we learn that Borros Baratheon slew Lords Mallister and Darry but what the hell does that mean when we know nothing else about them or their roles in the war?

On Ser Criston Cole: Regardless of whether you are a supporter of Aegon II or Rhaenyra (I'm a Green sympathizer personally if you want to know) the Ser Criston Cole we see in TRP, TPATQ, and TWOIAF does NOT match the image we are given of the man in the books proper and that is an issue for me at least.

On Winter Wolves: I have no problem making the Winter Wolves badass and they may well be an elite fighting force, which would explain their feats of arms, but again I have to ask why does their badassness have to come at the expense of the enemies they face?

On Hugh and Ulf: Yes, f*** both of them. Ser Hobert Hightower, Ser Jon Roxton, I salute you both.

On Butcher's Ball: Nothing to say really except that the wiki only says that hundreds died.

[Adam Yozza]

3 hours ago, The Grey Wolf said:

Oh, and the Peakes definitely are a highly martial family so I find you insinuation of Lord Unwin's character to be unfounded. Not only are they Marcher Lords too but they at that time still owned three castles, would later play a prominent role in the first two Blackfyre Rebellions, and launch a third all by themselves, which, considering that they weren't crushed immediately and that the royal host included men from outside the Reach as well, makes them pretty warhawkish to me.

I don't dispute that in general the Peake's would be a war based house. It's pretty much impossible for them not to be. However my comment was in reference to Unwin specifically. After all, the Tarly's are also a historically war centered house, yet Sam is not at all inclined to combat. I have no evidence to back it up and I will never claim my opinion to be fact or try to force it on you, but he just always struck me as a Littlefinger type of character; someone who is more suited to politics than war. That's just the image that I had when I read about him and with no evidence to either support or contradict this view, I've never been able to get rid off that impression.

I will respond to the rest of your post tomorrow, when I have a bit more time.

[Lion of the West]

Ok, this post got crazy. Don't ask me how.

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Yeah the wild dragons tipped the balance fairly quickly, but that advantage doesn't last long. Hugh and Ulf (the bastards) betray the Black's and take the biggest wild dragons with them. Jace and Vermax die not long after hatching the idea, with both Luke and Rhaenys having died with their dragons prior to this.

While the Black dragon superiority may not have lasted, the Greens didn't get any benefit either. Thier supposedly larger dragons didn't show themselves to be of much greater power than any smaller Black dragon. In effect the Greens could mount a total of three loyal dragons and another two who were only loyal in one battle, and then turned to enemies of the Greens. That makes Aegon II, Aemond and Daeron, as well as Hugh Hammer and Ulf the White, against Nettles, Rhaenys, Daemon, Baela, Addam, Jacaerys and Lucerys. Thus even if we count the Betrayers as part of the Greens the Blacks have a good advantage in numbers in terms of dragons that took the field and not just totally. And given what problem also fairly large dragons like Vhaegar and Sunfyre have against smaller opponents I dare say that seize of dragons isn't nearly as important as you would have it.

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I may have been mistaken with Redwyne but I'm sure I remember something about Dalton hitting the Redwyne fleet. Thinking about it, that may be post-war when he went raid happy on the western coast. I'll check and see if it ever happened and if so when.

Well, I am pretty sure you are mistaken. After the actual Dance had settled Lady Joanna brought the Reach fleet north to help her with taking revenge on the Ironmen but that was after the war, and even after Dalton had died as I recall.

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The Triarchy didn't do much, true. Though I think its worth noting that they did do damage to the Velaryon's which it seems they never recovered from. In addition they captured Viserys which, although he was eventually recovered, put the Black's succession in a dangerous situation after Jace's death.

True that they did manage to kill a dragon and ravage Driftmark but while it was a blow for the Green cause, a sustained presence would have been necessary for the Greens to actually offset other disadvantages I've mentioned.

Also note sure what problem them cause for the Blacks in terms of sucession. Would you care to elaborate?

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They could ship troops to KL but neither the Vale or the North has a particularly large fleet to do this with. While some of the Velaryon fleet might be dispatched to aid with this, they were mostly kept at the Gullet for the blockade. So while some Northmen and Valemen could be sent to help, it would mainly be small contingents. Yeah, even if they won all their early battles, the Greens were doomed from the start.

You are right about the fleets and that the build-up for Black troops from the North and Vale would take a lot of time if done by naval transports.

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I did explain my idea poorly, didn't I? I did not mean to imply that opportunistic and ambition meant one couldn't be skilled. In the Reach, it was the older and experienced Lords that declared for Rhaenyra (I will answer your question regarding Rowan, Tarly and Costayne a bit further on) and the younger less experienced Lords that fought for the Green's. Not true everywhere of course. Jason Lannister seems to have been a decent commander (competent if nothing else) but he was killed in a battle that his army won, leaving Lannister leadership with old and cautious Lefford. 

I think that I understand more of what you say and given the appearence the Reacher lords do give a fairly vigerous if not very intelligent impression. And you are right in that as a trend its possible that more Green lords were younger than the the Black lords.

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The Dornish raids are probably the way most Lords could gain command/battle experience during Jahaerys/Viserys reign. And while I would normally agree that Peake should be experienced due to this, he's never struck me as a very brave or martially inclined man. Tarly, on the other hand, is also quite close to the border and that family has a history of being warriors.

I think the problem here is that we know a little to little about the characters active in the Dance to say more. House Tarly gets more and more positive screen time than House Peake across the material. And while one can question Peake's bravery due to us never hearing about anything outstanding we should probably be careful not to think that lack of evidence is evidence.
 Like we can probably say that Jon Roxton was a brave, given the information we have, but a lack of praise for his beauty don't mean that he looked like a troll chewing on a rock.

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Vhagar is a game changer but Maelys is a fair bit faster due to her smaller size. I could see the smaller dragon inflicting some gruesome wounds on Sunfyre before getting caught by the larger dragons. And I wouldn't say it was equal losses. Sunfyre was crippled true but he did play a role later as did Aegon. Rhaenys and Maelys on the other hand were killed.

You are correct in that Sunfyre and Aegon lived on, but neither of them took an active approach that could actually end the war. Or rather Sunfyre didn't while Aegon II became a player at the end but even so, two much larger dragons team up on a single smaller opponents and its still that one of the larger dragons got crippled. How would it go if the smaller opponents were actually as many or more than the larger dragons?

But in regards to Sunfyre that dragon was a trooper like no one else. The sheer stubbornness of him and from a wounded condition killing another two dragons is real impressive, as if brave Baela's duel with Sunfyre when he approached Dragonstone. A clash of characterwise titants.

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Tales of loyalty and love are some of the best, imo. That's why I'm such a fan of Addam Velaryon.

To loyalty and love!

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I wouldn't say it was the fleet's destruction that caused the breakdown. After all, the remaining ships went on to sack Driftmark and then returned to the Triarch, presumably so they could do repairs and bolster their numbers before returning to finish the job. We don't know all the causes, just that the Triarch broke down.

True we can't know for sure.

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Fair enough. You are right I am a fan of the Black's; though some of the Green's are just as good IMO (Daeron, Jon Roxton etc).

And in return I'll raise a toast for brave Addam Velaryon, Baela Targaryen etc.

 

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Half being killed is probably about right. The remains would have been scattered and leaderless, and wouldn't have regrouped until another Green commander operated in the Riverlands/Crownlands (which none did until the end).

Sounds reasonable.

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It could be, but the name Winter Wolves has always given me the impression that these guys were more than just your average soldier.

That could of course be true and if it was a cream-of-the-elite troop then it would explain some and make it more acceptable.

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Yeah that would be one of the main reasons Addam was able to pull off such a successful attack. Though he did visit the isle of faces prior to the battle, maybe he knew when the prime time to attack would be beforehand. 

True that, although I had personally forgotten that Addam made a visit to the Isle of Faces, but I'll take your word for it.

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He and Hugh both died the deaths they deserved.

Couldn't agree more.

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Thank you, it's the one I plan on using in a story I'm writing.

 

Sounds interesting. What's the story about in general?

On 2016-12-23 at 11:33 AM, Adam Yozza said:

From the wiki: "Both sides suffered heavy casualties, with Rhaenyra losing seasoned commanders in Tom Flowers, Ser Alan Beesbury, Lord Alan Tarly, and Lord Owen Costayne."

 

I looked around the wiki and couldn't find this part. Regardless I feel that I am pretty hesistantly about this as I don't recall there being any mention that these men would have been more seasoned than anyone else, like the Hightowers.

[The Grey Wolf]

1 hour ago, LionoftheWest said:

Text

I agree these posts are getting rather long but that's fine with me. The topic is interesting and all the responses so far have been great even if I don't agree with all of them, which, IMO, is a very good thing.

Anyway, jumping off what I said concerning the Triarchy in my last post isn't it also unrealistic that Tyland Lannister couldn't find ANY sellswords willing to sail west in the name of Aegon II? I mean he had a quarter of the royal treasury and all the wealth of Casterly Rock to bribe them with. Surely, some should have been willing to take the risk of crossing the Narrow Sea for greater rewards rather than play it safe and make their fortunes in the conflicts of the Free Cities following the fall of the Triarchy. As Brown Ben Plumm puts it: There are old sellswords and bold sellswords, but no old bold sellswords.

[Lion of the West]

34 minutes ago, The Grey Wolf said:

I agree these posts are getting rather long but that's fine with me. The topic is interesting and all the responses so far have been great even if I don't agree with all of them, which, IMO, is a very good thing.

Anyway, jumping off what I said concerning the Triarchy in my last post isn't it also unrealistic that Tyland Lannister couldn't find ANY sellswords willing to sail west in the name of Aegon II? I mean he had a quarter of the royal treasury and all the wealth of Casterly Rock to bribe them with. Surely, some should have been willing to take the risk of crossing the Narrow Sea for greater rewards rather than play it safe and make their fortunes in the conflicts of the Free Cities following the fall of the Triarchy. As Brown Ben Plumm puts it: There are old sellswords and bold sellswords, but no old bold sellswords.

I agree pretty much entirely with your point in regards to Essos. Sure, there would be a great demand for sellswords in both Essos and Westeros, but I also find it unbelivable that every freaking sellsword in Essos would be engaged in the war. Or that for example people who had ridden high with the Triarchy wouldn't see a war in Westeros as a way to get out of a tight spot.

EDITED: And forgive me, The Grey Wolf, but I didn't see that your last post was also directed at me. I'll try to write a proper response in the days to come.

[The Grey Wolf]

17 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

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Np. Take your time.

[Lord Varys]

We know from Ran that 10,000 Vale men under the Corbray brothers fought for Rhaenyra during the Dance. We have no idea in what battles they fought, though, nor have we any idea how many battles there were. We have a very incomplete picture of that war and thus it makes little sense to speculate about numbers.

[Adam Yozza]

On 29/12/2016 at 3:58 PM, LionoftheWest said:

Ok, this post got crazy. Don't ask me how.

I don't mind. Despite some of the problems it has, the era is one of my favourites.

While the Black dragon superiority may not have lasted, the Greens didn't get any benefit either. Thier supposedly larger dragons didn't show themselves to be of much greater power than any smaller Black dragon. In effect the Greens could mount a total of three loyal dragons and another two who were only loyal in one battle, and then turned to enemies of the Greens. That makes Aegon II, Aemond and Daeron, as well as Hugh Hammer and Ulf the White, against Nettles, Rhaenys, Daemon, Baela, Addam, Jacaerys and Lucerys. Thus even if we count the Betrayers as part of the Greens the Blacks have a good advantage in numbers in terms of dragons that took the field and not just totally. And given what problem also fairly large dragons like Vhaegar and Sunfyre have against smaller opponents I dare say that seize of dragons isn't nearly as important as you would have it.

I'd say that in a fight between two dragons of similar size, the larger one would almost always take it. Though you are correct that large dragons have problems against smaller ones, so I will concede that size is not quite as important as my previous post's implied, I would, however, say that it is more important than you believe it be, given that Vermithor managed to defeat two smaller dragons at the same time. Furthermore, while Vhagar and Sunfyre experience some trouble in dealing with Meleys and Caraxes, Vhagar's enormous size was enough to defeat Arrax without issue and Sunfyre, despite crippling injuries, did kill Moondancer even if he died later. Therefore, having Jace, Luke and Baela as riders doesn't tip the scales too much (despite how much a fan I am of them). If we include Hugh and Ulf as Green's then, the balance of dragons is still in favor of the Black's, though much less so than you think.

I'll admit though, it might have made more sense if Meleys was bigger than/same size as Sunfyre. It might have made the injuries dealt to Aegon and Sunfyre a bit more believable.  

Well, I am pretty sure you are mistaken. After the actual Dance had settled Lady Joanna brought the Reach fleet north to help her with taking revenge on the Ironmen but that was after the war, and even after Dalton had died as I recall.

Having researched since my last post, I am indeed mistaken. I was likely thinking of another event. My apologies.

True that they did manage to kill a dragon and ravage Driftmark but while it was a blow for the Green cause, a sustained presence would have been necessary for the Greens to actually offset other disadvantages I've mentioned.

Not to nitpick, but you mean it was a blow for the Black cause? And yes, I agree that the Triarchy should have played a much larger role than they did. I believe they should have defeated the Velaryon's as they did in canon, and then blockade the Gullet so as to turn the tables on Rhaenyra. This would make civilian unrest in the capital under Rhaenyra even more realistic and provide another reason for why the Northmen and Vale men did not get shipped to Dragonstone in greater numbers than they did.

Also note sure what problem them cause for the Blacks in terms of sucession. Would you care to elaborate?

It's less a problem with succession and more the security of Rhaenyra's line. At the start of the war she had five sons so her line was secure. With the death of Jacaerys and the presumed-death of Viserys her family's future is suddenly less secure, especially as Luke was already dead and the oldest and most capable of the five (Jace) had been killed too. So the Triacrchy did manage to reduce the hopes of Rhaenyra's family to two young boys, Joffrey and Aegon. It's not much but it is something.

You are right about the fleets and that the build-up for Black troops from the North and Vale would take a lot of time if done by naval transports.

I think that I understand more of what you say and given the appearence the Reacher lords do give a fairly vigerous if not very intelligent impression. And you are right in that as a trend its possible that more Green lords were younger than the the Black lords.

I think the problem here is that we know a little to little about the characters active in the Dance to say more. House Tarly gets more and more positive screen time than House Peake across the material. And while one can question Peake's bravery due to us never hearing about anything outstanding we should probably be careful not to think that lack of evidence is evidence.
 Like we can probably say that Jon Roxton was a brave, given the information we have, but a lack of praise for his beauty don't mean that he looked like a troll chewing on a rock.

Fair point. I'll try a bit harder to not take lack of evidence as evidence, but as I said my impression of Peake is just the impression I got from reading about his character. His main successes seem to come from his political moves after the war rather than anything martial during it.

You are correct in that Sunfyre and Aegon lived on, but neither of them took an active approach that could actually end the war. Or rather Sunfyre didn't while Aegon II became a player at the end but even so, two much larger dragons team up on a single smaller opponents and its still that one of the larger dragons got crippled. How would it go if the smaller opponents were actually as many or more than the larger dragons?

I'd say that Sunfyre did take an active approach. I doubt the Green takeover of Dragonstone would have succeeded without him. As I said above, it may have made more sense for Meleys to be of a similar size to Sunfyre, or perhaps even bigger. It would have made the fact she managed to maim Sunfyre despite fighting two larger dragons perhaps a bit more believable.

But in regards to Sunfyre that dragon was a trooper like no one else. The sheer stubbornness of him and from a wounded condition killing another two dragons is real impressive, as if brave Baela's duel with Sunfyre when he approached Dragonstone. A clash of characterwise titants.

I had forgotten that Sunfyre killed Grey Ghost too. It's just another thing to his credit really.

To loyalty and love!

To Daeron and Addam!

True we can't know for sure.

And in return I'll raise a toast for brave Addam Velaryon, Baela Targaryen etc.

 

Sounds reasonable.

That could of course be true and if it was a cream-of-the-elite troop then it would explain some and make it more acceptable.

True that, although I had personally forgotten that Addam made a visit to the Isle of Faces, but I'll take your word for it.

Couldn't agree more.

Sounds interesting. What's the story about in general?

Summed up: Medieval kingdom, war, assasinations, political machinations etc. I'm still on the world building stage, which I would prefer to get done first before I delve deep into anymore than the basic plot.

I looked around the wiki and couldn't find this part. Regardless I feel that I am pretty hesistantly about this as I don't recall there being any mention that these men would have been more seasoned than anyone else, like the Hightowers.

I believe it's in the 'Aftermath' section on the entry on the Battle of the Honeywine. I know how you feel, I'm a bit confused as to how these guys could be 'experienced' given that it was a peaceful reign under both Jahaerys and Viserys. It's just the most reasonable explanation for why Ormund does so poorly against them. Then again, pirates and outlaws would always be a problem, and didn't Aemon (Jahaerys' eldest) die fighting a pirate invasion on Tarth?

 

[Adam Yozza]

On 29/12/2016 at 6:22 PM, LionoftheWest said:

I agree pretty much entirely with your point in regards to Essos. Sure, there would be a great demand for sellswords in both Essos and Westeros, but I also find it unbelivable that every freaking sellsword in Essos would be engaged in the war. Or that for example people who had ridden high with the Triarchy wouldn't see a war in Westeros as a way to get out of a tight spot.

 

On 29/12/2016 at 5:47 PM, The Grey Wolf said:

I agree these posts are getting rather long but that's fine with me. The topic is interesting and all the responses so far have been great even if I don't agree with all of them, which, IMO, is a very good thing.

Anyway, jumping off what I said concerning the Triarchy in my last post isn't it also unrealistic that Tyland Lannister couldn't find ANY sellswords willing to sail west in the name of Aegon II? I mean he had a quarter of the royal treasury and all the wealth of Casterly Rock to bribe them with. Surely, some should have been willing to take the risk of crossing the Narrow Sea for greater rewards rather than play it safe and make their fortunes in the conflicts of the Free Cities following the fall of the Triarchy. As Brown Ben Plumm puts it: There are old sellswords and bold sellswords, but no old bold sellswords.

As I said, there are problems with the Dance, most of which are caused by gaps in the information we have. I sincerely doubt that there wouldn't have been sellswords hired if the Green's had all the wealth. The question is why aren't they ever mentioned. The small amount of hedge knights and freeriders that would join the armies not being mentioned is fine, but why not the companies? Maybe they never got to fight for some reason? 

It's also likely that Bravos, Pentos and Volantis would have hired a fair amount of sellswords in prep. for an attack on the Triarch. They were just waiting for an opportunity after all. It wouldn't be strange if they hired their armies in advance.

Also, my apologies Grey Wolf, I promised to respond to your last post and never got round to it. I will eventually, I promise.

[The Grey Wolf]

3 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

Text

There's no hurry. Take your time responding.

Also, if you ever want to discuss world-building with someone you can PM me if you'd like.