Why Daenerys Dayne may not be a ridiculous idea.

[Sly Wren]

10 hours ago, SFDanny said:

We are talking about two very different things, Sly Wren.

With the swap of Dalla's baby, Gilly and Val know, and Maester Aemon knows, but even Sam doesn't know until half way through the voyage to Braavos.This is not a lot of people to manage a secret, especially because the people they are keeping a secret from only have to believe it for a while and most of those who know have sailed away. Basically, Jon and Val have to be silent until Sam, Gilly, and the Dalla's boy sail away from Eastwatch.

I agree--it's not a lot of people.

But it is all the people involved in the babies' lives. And they all care about those kids. And thus they keep quiet. 

Rhaella very, very likely did not give birth unattended. But given that when she gave birth, her family had fallen and she was essentially in exile, the idea that there was a huge contingency of witnesses. . . no reason to assume that for sure. We simply don't know.

ETA: So the group could conceivably (terrible pun, sorry) be as small or nearly as small as those who attended Dalla.

And, if the baby lived long enough to leave Dragonstone with Viserys, all of those people who attested to her birth would be very unlikely to attend Viserys and Dany the entire time they are wandering/in various houses in the Free Cities. Leaving plenty of room to a later "swap." Thus, those who attended the queen might have no idea there was a later swap.

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Now, correct me if I'm wrong, because I know you don't always agree with Wolfmaid in all details, but this idea fancies that a pretend Rhaella faked the pregnancy, faked the birth including the storm that destroys the fleet, and Rhaella's death. Then they fake taking care of a nonexistent child until Ser Willem runs off with Viserys.This masquerade goes on for over nine months, if we include someone disguised as Rhaella leaving King's Landing. This conspiracy is vast. It has to include the people of Dragonstone and the men of the Royal Navy - basically all of them to be safe. And it has to last 17 years. Please!

For what do they do this?

Ah! No--I mean, I know anything is possible until the books are finished, but I can't see any reason why Rhaella wouldn't have had a child--as did Dalla.

And that the child and Viserys were take from Dragonstone. 

But after that, things get pretty hole-y in Dany's backstory. Lots of room for things to be "adjusted"--if (and I fully admit this is an "if") that's where Martin's going.

If Rhaella's child died at that point, I could see whoever had Viserys wanting to replace this dead sister--having a true-born "Targaryen princess" could be an asset in trying to regain the throne for Viserys.

As for Dany-the-potential-Dayne (I'm now imagining her playing Hamlet--not good)--the Dayne siblings were deep in Rhaegar's inner circle. A very Targaryen-looking baby might make the Lord of Starfall nervous and he'd want to send her away.

Or, Ashara might decide she wants to try to get her child into a "legitimate Targaryen" position to help provide a restoration. 

All MASSIVELY speculative, I know. Truly. But something's up with the out-of-the-blue reference not only comparing Dany to Ashara, but the reference to Ashara's daughter--not son, which is the rumor we've been told of since Game. Why change the rumor for readers now? Something's up.

 

[Sly Wren]

2 hours ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

How do you know that? How do you know that the people close to Stannis don't know about Monster because the closest person to Stannis and the one who wants to use Dalla's baby knows the truth. So it seems that the only person who mattered knew th truth.

Well--any evidence that anyone in Stannis' circle, other than Mel, knows?

Second--the plan still worked: getting Mance's baby away form Mel. And, so far, all in the know are not blabbing to those not in the know. Even big secrets can hold as much as they need to.

Third--as @Sigella noted above: Cat's experience with rumors at Winterfell shows how even when stories get out, they can still be quelled.

1 hour ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

Why would Willam Darry or Viserys or Rhaelle do this? It makes no sense. Why would they take the bastard daughter of their sworn enemy and protect her? It simply does not add up, at all.

Well--any reason why Dany would have to be Ned and Ashara's? As opposed to Dany's being Aerys' via Ashara? Or Rhaegar's via Ashara? 

As for "protecting" the baby--if they lost Rhaella's baby and wanted a replacement, they are less "protecting the child" and more "using" her. Might even explain Illyrio's odd statement that he didn't expect Dany to live.

1 hour ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

Sorry. In order for a theory to make sense, I think you need at least the beginnings of a sensible argument about why someone would do something. Ned protecting his sister's child makes sense. This does not. 

Ned is willing to go to very big lengths to protect Dany--a child with whom he has no established connection in the books. He insults Robert in front of witnesses and breaks with him. A risk to himself and his entire family. So, we know Ned will risk a lot to protect kids.

Plus, the Daynes respect Ned a lot for no reason yet discernible in the books. And Ned feels regret over Arthur--but not the other KG at the tower. For reasons not yet given in the books.

If Ned was protecting a Dayne child in Dany--that could be a potential explanation of all of that. And even potentially explain why he doesn't just tell Cat that she isn't to talk of Jon's origins. He also asks where she heard "that name"--meaning Ashara's. And why Cat says:  "and from that day on, the whispering had stopped, and Ashara Dayne's name was never heard in Winterfell again." Game, Catelyn II.

2 hours ago, ShadowCat Rivers said:

What problem does it solve?

...is the first question that every theory must answer.

Well--it explains some of the gaps in Dany's story and Barristan's out-of-the-blue statements about Ashara and her dead daughter--changing the story we've been told since Game--that Ashara might have had a son. Plus the gaps in Dany's backstory. And (for my money) why Dany is so very tied to Rhaegar, not Aerys.

If Rhaella's baby died (admittedly an "if")--it solves the problem of only having one legitimate Targ to bargain with in getting him back on the throne.

And if Dany is a Dayne and a Targaryen--it would put that baby in a position to be "restored" along with her half-brother or uncle.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

3 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Well--any evidence that anyone in Stannis' circle, other than Mel, knows?

My point is that the only one from Stannis' circle that matters is Mel.

3 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Second--the plan still worked: getting Mance's baby away form Mel. And, so far, all in the know are not blabbing to those not in the know. Even big secrets can hold as much as they need to.

Since Mel knew it was more the fact that she willingly turned the blind eye than the plan working.

4 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Third--as @Sigella noted above: Cat's experience with rumors at Winterfell shows how even when stories get out, they can still be quelled.

As @ShadowCat Rivers said Dany Dayne solves nothing in the story we have so far. If Dany was Ashara's daughter there is no logical reason why she should had been passed as Rhaella's baby.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

2 hours ago, Sigella said:

Sure.

Not sexual segregation but rather a socio-economic one. Apart from the maester its all low working-class women. And if their stories spread upwards (like it did with Cat) we all know how easily those are silenced.

Again Ned pretty much proved to us what midwives stories are worth. 

And also, me saying "this smells fishy" does not mean I owe you a logistical explanation. There might not really be one until GRRM writes it.

"I don't owe you an explanation" is not how you sell a theory. Just sayin'.

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

 

Well--any reason why Dany would have to be Ned and Ashara's? As opposed to Dany's being Aerys' via Ashara? Or Rhaegar's via Ashara? 

 

All right, here is my opening for one of my bigger crackpot theories.  In the Arthurian mythos, King Arthur was conceived when his father, Uther Pendragon, magically disguised himself as the husband of Igraine, and conceived a child with her under this deceit.  It's been my impression that GRRM loves to retell mythology through his stories, but often creates an inverse of the story. 

In our story we have a bit of a discrepancy regarding Rhaella's origin story.  Viserys tells Dany that he and his mother fled King's Landin on a midnight voyage to Dragonstone.  However, Jaime has a different recollection.  He recalls that after the Hand of the king was burned, Aerys brought Rhaella into his bedchamber in what basically amounted to a rape.  The next morning, a hooded Rhaella leaves King's landing in a carriage with no mention of Viserys.  Why the discrepancy?  My thought is that the woman that Aerys raped (and probably conceived Dany) wasn't Rhaella but someone under a glamor.

Why did Rhaella flee King's Landing at night, with black sailed ships?  At the time of her flight, I'm not aware that the rebellion had a navy threatning King's Landing, and at the time the King's navy was still in tact.  There would have been no reason to have risked a midnight voyage with all the dangers that it entails, unless of course Rhaella was not fleeing the advancing usurper.  My thought is she may have been fleeing Aerys.  Rhaella knew that it was Aerys custom to bring her into his bedchamber after he burned someone alive.  The Hand's death would have been a warning for Rhaella to take her son and flee King's Landing before she had to endure this. 

So if Rhaella fled King's Landing before the rape, who was in Aerys's bedchamber?  My guess is we have a character who would have been close to Rhaella who could have casted a glamor.  My guess is that Ashara is at least a possibility.  And if the theories that Ashara is currently Quaithe are true, then that would further the argument that Ashara may have been someone capable of casting a glamor.

Now despite the fact that GRRM has given us a family tree of House Targaryen, he has left a few things out, that are probably left out for a reason.  We know that Aegon V had two sisters, one of which, Rhae, gave him a magical potion to fall in love with him.  We don't know who either sister married.  But my guess is one of them probably married back into House Dayne, the House of their mother.  And if it was Rhae, then perhaps her penchant for magic may have run to a granddaughter, or great granddaughter in Ashara.

So if this theory is correct, GRRM has set up an inverse to King Arthur's tale.  Instead of a king magically disguising himself to fool his love interest, we have Ashara magically disguising herself to fool the King.

[SFDanny]

3 hours ago, Sigella said:

Not sexual segregation but rather a socio-economic one. Apart from the maester its all low working-class women. And if their stories spread upwards (like it did with Cat) we all know how easily those are silenced.

Again Ned pretty much proved to us what midwives stories are worth. 

I think you're missing the value of Catelyn's story. Ned shows us throughout his short stay in the books the value of loyalty. While others fill their servants with fear, Ned inspires those around him. He cares for them, and they care for him. I don't think "love" is too strong a word to describe what is going on between Lord Stark and his vassals and his servants.

Yet people talk. Ned can stop people from talking to Catelyn about his former rumored lover, but that doesn't stop them talking amongst themselves. As Harwin shows us. And people will talk even more is they live in situations unlike Ned's Winterfell.

So, let's look at the socioeconomic ties of the people of Dragonstone and those of the Royal Navy that surround Rhaella. Is it possible they have the same veneration of Rhaella as Ned's people have of him? Yes, I think it is possible. Much less likely amongst the sailors and captains of the ships than of the household servants, but certainly possible. I would guess that given the greater number of people and the different relationships they would have had with the Targaryens it is fair to say one would expect a different level of loyalty amongst them.

Now, given the fall of House Targaryen, including the story of Rhaella's death, it is fairly obvious to everyone that the normal socioeconomic ties have been shattered. No jobs are guaranteed into the future, and the servants have to look to the new lords for new economic ties to sustain them. What we are talking about is how loyal are servants whose lords and ladies are all either dead or limited to two young children who are fled into exile. How many of them are wiling to risk their lives and livelihoods to protect their secrets? My guess is you are going to find a household servant or two who are willing to talk to Stannis in order to continue to have a job. The grander the conspiracy, the easier it unravels.

If, unlike Sly Wren's view, we are talking of a conspiracy that includes many, over the course of 17 years, it is going to fall apart - if Martin writes it in a realistic way.

 

[Victarion Chainbreaker]

Hello all, ready for the timeline?

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All of which is a long winded way of saying, no, Jon was not born "more than 1 year" before Dany... probably closer to eight or nine months or thereabouts.

...

As to your speculations about Catelyn and Ashara Dayne... sigh... needless to say, All Will Be Revealed in Good Time. I will give you this much, however; Ashara Dayne was not nailed to the floor in Starfall, as some of the fans who write me seem to assume. They have horses in Dorne too, you know. And boats (though not many of their own). As a matter of fact (a tiny tidbit from SOS), she was one of Princess Elia's lady companions in King's Landing, in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar.

 

So Dany was conceived a few weeks before Jon was born. That rules out Harrenhal. Her conception must have been around the time of the Battle of the Trident.

And where was Ashara Dayne at that point? George points out that she could technically be anywhere, but then he places her at King's Landing.

Which possible fathers were at the King's Landing at about the same time as the Trident?

• Aerys was there, but we have good reason to believe he was no longer cheating on Rhaella at that point.
• Ned was there, racing ahead of Robert with news of the battle, but both he and Ashara had dark hair, and George makes a big deal about hair color proving genetics.
• Rhaegar was there (telling Jaime that changes would be made), and he does have his whole MO of seducing beautiful women by telling them the world is going to end unless they make a baby.

But how could a swap possibly happen? Who cares? We could make random guesses all day, what would that prove? If George intends a baby swap, then I'm sure he'll write a convincing one.The point is that there's a lot of evidence towards Dany not being who she believes she is.

[Sly Wren]

2 hours ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

Since Mel knew it was more the fact that she willingly turned the blind eye than the plan working.

But part of the plan was just to get the baby away--once that was done, Jon and those who care about Mance's baby pretty much won.

2 hours ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

As @ShadowCat Rivers said Dany Dayne solves nothing in the story we have so far. If Dany was Ashara's daughter there is no logical reason why she should had been passed as Rhaella's baby.

It solves why on earth Barristan compares Dany to Ashara and brings up that Ashara had a daughter, not a son--a statement that changes what we've been told is the Ashara rumor since Cat's second POV in Game. A standard rumor confirmed by Cersei--also in Game.

And potentially fills in some of the gaps in Dany's backstory and some of the symbolism around her.

As for "logical reasons why passed as Rhaella's baby"--if Martin intends for Dany to be Ashara's, then he clearly did replace Rhaella's baby with Dany. Why? The options I suggested upthread seem reasonable-ish.

29 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

So if Rhaella fled King's Landing before the rape, who was in Aerys's bedchamber?  My guess is we have a character who would have been close to Rhaella who could have casted a glamor.  My guess is that Ashara is at least a possibility.  And if the theories that Ashara is currently Quaithe are true, then that would further the argument that Ashara may have been someone capable of casting a glamor.

Possible--but I'm also thinking it could be much less complicated. If Ashara was in King's Landing with Elia, Aerys could have gotten his hands on her around that time. No need for glamours or any of the rest. Just another example of Aerys making whores out of ladies--this time out of Elia's ladies instead of Rhaella's.

15 minutes ago, Victarion Chainbreaker said:

And where was Ashara Dayne at that point? George points out that she could technically be anywhere, but then he places her at King's Landing.

Which possible fathers were at the King's Landing at about the same time as the Trident?

• Aerys was there, but we have good reason to believe he was no longer cheating on Rhaella at that point.
• Ned was there, racing ahead of Robert with news of the battle, but both he and Ashara had dark hair, and George makes a big deal about hair color proving genetics.
• Rhaegar was there (telling Jaime that changes would be made), and he does have his whole MO of seducing beautiful women by telling them the world is going to end unless they make a baby.

Good points. I would potentially throw a wrinkle in this by noting the wording of Martin's quote:

16 minutes ago, Victarion Chainbreaker said:

Ashara Dayne was not nailed to the floor in Starfall, as some of the fans who write me seem to assume. They have horses in Dorne too, you know. And boats (though not many of their own). As a matter of fact (a tiny tidbit from SOS), she was one of Princess Elia's lady companions in King's Landing, in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar.

The bolded says she was  in King's Landing with Elia during the "first few years"--but not necessarily after that time. No reason otherwise to say "the first few years."

But the list of potential fathers you give is clearly on the table.

If Dany is Ashara's though, I think there's a very good chance the father is either Rhaegar or Aerys--really seems like Dany's at least part Targaryen.

18 minutes ago, Victarion Chainbreaker said:

But how could a swap possibly happen? Who cares? We could make random guesses all day, what would that prove? If George intends a baby swap, then I'm sure he'll write a convincing one.The point is that there's a lot of evidence towards Dany not being who she believes she is.

Amen.

[Sigella]

47 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

I think you're missing the value of Catelyn's story. Ned shows us throughout his short stay in the books the value of loyalty. While others fill their servants with fear, Ned inspires those around him. He cares for them, and they care for him. I don't think "love" is too strong a word to describe what is going on between Lord Stark and his vassals and his servants.

Yet people talk. Ned can stop people from talking to Catelyn about his former rumored lover, but that doesn't stop them talking amongst themselves. As Harwin shows us. And people will talk even more is they live in situations unlike Ned's Winterfell.

So, let's look at the socioeconomic ties of the people of Dragonstone and those of the Royal Navy that surround Rhaella. Is it possible they have the same veneration of Rhaella as Ned's people have of him? Yes, I think it is possible. Much less likely amongst the sailors and captains of the ships than of the household servants, but certainly possible. I would guess that given the greater number of people and the different relationships they would have had with the Targaryens it is fair to say one would expect a different level of loyalty amongst them.

Now, given the fall of House Targaryen, including the story of Rhaella's death, it is fairly obvious to everyone that the normal socioeconomic ties have been shattered. No jobs are guaranteed into the future, and the servants have to look to the new lords for new economic ties to sustain them. What we are talking about is how loyal are servants whose lords and ladies are all either dead or limited to two young children who are fled into exile. How many of them are wiling to risk their lives and livelihoods to protect their secrets? My guess is you are going to find a household servant or two who are willing to talk to Stannis in order to continue to have a job. The grander the conspiracy, the easier it unravels.

If, unlike Sly Wren's view, we are talking of a conspiracy that includes many, over the course of 17 years, it is going to fall apart - if Martin writes it in a realistic way.

 

I think its you who are missing the point. It being that midwives don't matter.

May I remind you of the two millers' sons in WF? They were killed under the same socio-economic-turmoil that you apply to Dragonstone, but that secret is still largely kept.

1 hour ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

"I don't owe you an explanation" is not how you sell a theory. Just sayin'.

Well, its fitting when 

1: I'm not selling a theory

2: someone repeatedly demands a logistical explanation

3: 1+2

[SFDanny]

57 minutes ago, Sigella said:

I think its you who are missing the point. It being that midwives don't matter.

If you are saying that the lives of midwives, or of the many other servants who populate the houses of the nobility, are not generally taken into account by their lords and ladies, then we agree. What we don't agree about is whether or not Stannis, arriving in Dragonstone, hears stories from those servants that raise questions about the truth of Rhaella giving birth to Dany, and to Ser Willem running off with Viserys and Dany, that means he will ignore those reports because the come from servants - or midwives. Stannis is many things, but he is not an idiot. He has a duty to find out what happened to the Targaryens and he will question anyone with information, be they midwives or noble ladies. And he will follow up on any questions the reports tell him.

1 hour ago, Sigella said:

May I remind you of the two millers' sons in WF? They were killed under the same socio-economic-turmoil that you apply to Dragonstone, but that secret is still largely kept.

Sure, you can remind me of this unrelated event, but that doesn't mean that if anyone knows anything about the fate of the miller's sons that they would not be willing to tell people about it, or that if they did so it would be ignored. It depends on what they say and if the crime can be connected to anything else. Like the supposed deaths of two other boys around the same time. I really don't think there has been much of an investigation given the Lords responsible for giving out the justice are gone for most of the time after the event.

[aryagonnakill#2]

19 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Agreed.

Or at Lyanna's location. And, given how the Knight of the Laughing Tree story takes the time to tell us that she danced with some key figures--sounds like Ashara may have been in the thick of things with Arthur and Rhaegar.

Maybe. But she's mentioned directly in every book but one, and her suicide-by-tower is brought up multiple times. The only book she's not mentioned by name in has this:

The idea that Ashara might have been the source of Rhaegar's third dragon head has been brought up multiple times. Makes sense of all the Rhaegar stuff around Dany--while Jon is Targ-Symbolism free. So, maybe she had an affair with Ned of Brandon--or maybe she had Rhaegar's child--and Ned's protecting both kids.

Agreed--but Quaithe's interest in Dany--so far, it's unexplained. Especially the visions. Something big is up there.

A fair point. Still, her being in Dany's mind seems a bit much.

Agreed--and I could easily see that hiding Dany in place of a hypothetically dead baby wasn't meant to be permanent, either. After all, Quaithe keeps telling her to remember who she is. And Dany's big vision in Game is of herself in Rhaegar's armor--not on Aerys' throne. In Rhaegar's armor. 

Why? If there's only one remaining royal Targ, that makes it harder to make deals, marriages, support, etc. With two, you'd have more options, no?

And if Dany is Ashara's--hiding her might have become a necessity. Dany looks as Targaryen as it gets. And Ashara was Elia's attendant. Keeping that child around could potentially bring dangerous questions.

Hiding her as a replacement child in the Free Cities. . . . might keep the Daynes safer. Even if it broke Ashara.

But unless I'm misremembering, Barristan only mentions loving Ashara in this moment. If it's to show he was in love with someone and might be with Dany, any pretty woman from his past would do. But Martin has Barristan crushing on the woman we've been hearing about throughout the novels--without yet explaining why Ashara matters.

But a lot of other people are clueless. And the secret is being kept. That's the point.

But by the time Barristan says this in Dance, does anyone doubt that Dany's gorgeous?

Maybe. But then why say she looks like Ashara's daughter, bringing up the miscarriage? He could just say, "At times he thought he was looking at Ashara again" or "Ashara, risen from the dead"--all sorts of options.

One way or another, Barristan's thoughts re: Ashara and Dany seem to hold little purpose other than to connect them for the reader.

This question can be answered by Ashara being Lemore.

[Sly Wren]

1 hour ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

This question can be answered by Ashara being Lemore.

Maybe--but two things give me pause on this: 

1. Ashara's eyes seem to be a very key feature. Cat brings up her "haunting violet eyes"--but is only going on rumor, suggesting those eyes are striking enough to make it into general rumors. Howland talks about "laughing purple eyes." And Barristan compares Ashara's violet eyes to Dany's.

So far, no one's made any mention of Septa Lemore's eyes--seems like someone would have noticed this about Lemore, given that everyone else seems to notice it about Ashara.

2. Barristan clearly thinks Ashara had a daughter. This is a departure from what we've learned previously about Westerosi rumors about Ashara. Why change the rumor if all that matters is whether or not Ashara had a child? 

[Sigella]

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

If you are saying that the lives of midwives, or of the many other servants who populate the houses of the nobility, are not generally taken into account by their lords and ladies, then we agree. What we don't agree about is whether or not Stannis, arriving in Dragonstone, hears stories from those servants that raise questions about the truth of Rhaella giving birth to Dany, and to Ser Willem running off with Viserys and Dany, that means he will ignore those reports because the come from servants - or midwives. Stannis is many things, but he is not an idiot. He has a duty to find out what happened to the Targaryens and he will question anyone with information, be they midwives or noble ladies. And he will follow up on any questions the reports tell him.

Sure, you can remind me of this unrelated event, but that doesn't mean that if anyone knows anything about the fate of the miller's sons that they would not be willing to tell people about it, or that if they did so it would be ignored. It depends on what they say and if the crime can be connected to anything else. Like the supposed deaths of two other boys around the same time. I really don't think there has been much of an investigation given the Lords responsible for giving out the justice are gone for most of the time after the event.

I'm saying there would be the same social mechanisms at play. I would also suggest that servants are quite aware that selling out your former masters secrets might not be a positive thing. Certainly not to someone like Stannis. He might reward the informant first and chop off his head right after.

But even if it isnt Stannis (or the servant doesn't know anything about Stannis), the servant would be branded as untrustworthy, unemployable and so on. Also this servant could probably expect some nasty stuff from other servants still harboring some loyalty to the former masters. A servant spilling the beans burns both bridges.

[Scorpion92]

I just don't see Ned Stark holding Rhaegar in high esteem if he managed to seduce and impregnate not only his sister, but the woman he presumably was in love with. If Lyanna and Rhaegar were married and had Jon, that is one thing. But if Rhaegar managed to actually impregnate the woman Ned was in love with (and I don't think Rhaegar married Ashara as well, so if they had a child, he/she would have been a bastard), that is a different story altogether. That kinda makes me sceptical.

I mean, if Dany is indeed Ashara's daughter, there is only one father candidate for the kid in my opinion - Ned Stark. Everyone else just does not make sense to me. I mean, what is the point of making Dany's real father either Aerys (who she assumes is her real father anyways) or Rhaegar - that would just make her a Targaryen bastard instead of trueborn and this fact does not change much anything storywise.

I think George is cooking something bigger - to show that Ned was not THAT honorable all the time, and he had a moment of weakness which actually resulted in a bastard daughter - a bastard daughter that actually changed millions of lives in another continent and who actually plans to conquer Westeros. The weakness was due to love for the woman he wanted to marry, but could not due to circumstances. It will actually parallel Ned with his son Robb - Ned chose duty (Cat) over love (Ashara); Robb chose love (Jeyne) over duty (Frey marriage pact).

No wonder there are so much mentions of Ned in her chapters; Jorah Mormont, a bannerman of Ned Stark who was exiled from the North, is her main advisor; and not to mention so many mentions of wolves in her chapters.

My train of thought is that if Jon is indeed "ice and fire" of this story and has a dual symbolism of trueborn born bastard, then he needs a mate who is actually "ice and fire" herself and has dual symbolism of bastard born trueborn. Dany being Ned Stark's bastard daughter by Ashara will solve it perfectly (not to mention that would make Jon and Dany cousins, which is not that bad in terms of incest in Westeros). It will also make Jon as the only surviving member of House Targaryen assuming Jaime and Cersei are not Targaryen bastards. Jon's ying to Dany's yang.

George already included tidbits of Dany's memories not aligning with her backstory, and I think the reveal of Dany's true heritage will be on the same magnitude as with Jon, if not bigger. I know people are arguing that the timeline does not align and all that, but if Dany is indeed Ashara's daughter, then I am sure the conception would have happened at Starfall for Azor Ahai symbolism I brought up several pages ago.

Ned Stark is the only father candidate that makes sense to me. It will be a tremendous irony if he tried to protect not just some poor girl across the continent from assassins, but his own daughter.

I don't know, it is just me I guess.

[Nevets]

9 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Well--it explains some of the gaps in Dany's story and Barristan's out-of-the-blue statements about Ashara and her dead daughter--changing the story we've been told since Game--that Ashara might have had a son.

It's not really a change in story.  Ashara is suspected of being Jon's mother, probably because of Neds visit and her subsequent suicide, combined with the rumors that she was pregnant.  This does not mean they had any idea of the result of the pregnancy, if one existed.  The discrepancy probably results from the difficulty in getting accurate facts in a setting like Westeros, especially on sensitive subjects like the pregnancy of a young unmarried noble.

10 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

As for Dany-the-potential-Dayne (I'm now imagining her playing Hamlet--not good)--the Dayne siblings were deep in Rhaegar's inner circle. A very Targaryen-looking baby might make the Lord of Starfall nervous and he'd want to send her away.

I would actually expect the opposite.  Given the similarities in Targaryen and Dayne family appearances, I would expect a secret Targ to be potentially placed with the Daynes for protection.  Starfall is deep within Dorne, a place where Robert's authority runs quite thin. I see no reason why the Daynes would have to be particularly worried.  Remember, no one talks about bastards in any case.

10 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

As for "protecting" the baby--if they lost Rhaella's baby and wanted a replacement, they are less "protecting the child" and more "using" her. Might even explain Illyrio's odd statement that he didn't expect Dany to live.

although I don't have the book with me, if I recall correctly he was referring to the fact that he didn't expect her to survive the Dothraki, an entirely reasonable supposition.

 

7 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

The bolded says she was  in King's Landing with Elia during the "first few years"--but not necessarily after that time. No reason otherwise to say "the first few years."

But the list of potential fathers you give is clearly on the table.

If Dany is Ashara's though, I think there's a very good chance the father is either Rhaegar or Aerys--really seems like Dany's at least part Targaryen.

I seem to recall that Ashara had been dismissed from Elia's service by the time the war started.  In which case, she would likely have returned to Dorne.

While I don't entirely dismiss the possibility, the difficulties involved with a substitution, combined with a lack of a compelling reason (it certainly wasn't actually necessary for anything) make it unlikely in my opinion.  

[Sly Wren]

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

It's not really a change in story.  Ashara is suspected of being Jon's mother, probably because of Neds visit and her subsequent suicide, combined with the rumors that she was pregnant.  This does not mean they had any idea of the result of the pregnancy, if one existed.  The discrepancy probably results from the difficulty in getting accurate facts in a setting like Westeros, especially on sensitive subjects like the pregnancy of a young unmarried noble.

Maybe--but this seems like a fairly well known story. It gets to Cat pretty easily. Cersei clearly knows it. And Ned Dayne seems genuinely surprised Arya's never heard that Ned and Ashara are "known" to once have been a thing (though he thinks that Jon is Wylla's). So, doesn't seem like the story had any trouble getting around--Ned quelled it at Winterfell, but many others seem aware. All the stories re: a child say a boy came out of Starfall, one way or another.

Barristan and only Barristan brings up that she had a daughter--right when he's talking of Dany. And this is after Dany has seen the vision (in Game) of the gemstone eyed people carrying swords of pale flame (like Dawn--the Daynes' sword). As you say--it could be nothing--but Barristan's bringing it up is pretty out of the blue. And seems unnecessary--unless it matters.

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

I would actually expect the opposite.  Given the similarities in Targaryen and Dayne family appearances, I would expect a secret Targ to be potentially placed with the Daynes for protection.  Starfall is deep within Dorne, a place where Robert's authority runs quite thin. I see no reason why the Daynes would have to be particularly worried.  Remember, no one talks about bastards in any case.

A very fair point. Now I think on it, Ned Dayne is described as having very Targ-like coloring. Still--it does put the kibosh on Ned as father--Ashara is dark-haired. Ned's hair is brown. Platinum blond Dany would not really be believable as their child. 

But that might still leave open the option that Ashara might want her child raised as a Targaryen royal. . . 

And one way or another, the Daynes greatly respect Ned for no clear reason--if he's helping them keep a secret, that could explain it.

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

although I don't have the book with me, if I recall correctly he was referring to the fact that he didn't expect her to survive the Dothraki, an entirely reasonable supposition.

Right--but if she's considered as important as a "true" heir, running the risk of losing her to Dothraki harshness seems like terrible Targ-o-nomics. If she's less "legitimate"--they might not care as much.

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

I seem to recall that Ashara had been dismissed from Elia's service by the time the war started.  In which case, she would likely have returned to Dorne.

Makes sense.

2 hours ago, Nevets said:

While I don't entirely dismiss the possibility, the difficulties involved with a substitution, combined with a lack of a compelling reason (it certainly wasn't actually necessary for anything) make it unlikely in my opinion.  

All fair--but if she is Ashara's daughter--if that's why this stuff gets brought up--then the switch did occur. But I fully confess this is still hypothetical. 

[Sly Wren]

4 hours ago, Scorpion92 said:

I just don't see Ned Stark holding Rhaegar in high esteem if he managed to seduce and impregnate not only his sister, but the woman he presumably was in love with. If Lyanna and Rhaegar were married and had Jon, that is one thing. But if Rhaegar managed to actually impregnate the woman Ned was in love with (and I don't think Rhaegar married Ashara as well, so if they had a child, he/she would have been a bastard), that is a different story altogether. That kinda makes me sceptical.

Well--any evidence that Ned holds Rhaegar in "high esteem?" He seems to be pretty "meh" at best about Rhaegar.

4 hours ago, Scorpion92 said:

I mean, if Dany is indeed Ashara's daughter, there is only one father candidate for the kid in my opinion - Ned Stark. Everyone else just does not make sense to me. I mean, what is the point of making Dany's real father either Aerys (who she assumes is her real father anyways) or Rhaegar - that would just make her a Targaryen bastard instead of trueborn and this fact does not change much anything storywise.

Fair enough--but then we have to deal with how Dany looks and the dragon imagery around her--not to mention her actual dragons. Sahara has the violet eyes, but dark hair. Ned's hair is brown. That platinum blond's gotta come from somewhere. Not to mention the dragon stuff.

4 hours ago, Scorpion92 said:

I think George is cooking something bigger - to show that Ned was not THAT honorable all the time, and he had a moment of weakness which actually resulted in a bastard daughter - a bastard daughter that actually changed millions of lives in another continent and who actually plans to conquer Westeros. The weakness was due to love for the woman he wanted to marry, but could not due to circumstances. It will actually parallel Ned with his son Robb - Ned chose duty (Cat) over love (Ashara); Robb chose love (Jeyne) over duty (Frey marriage pact).

I kinda love the Ned-Ashara theories for this same reason. And it would be a strong reason why Ned goes to the mat for Dany against Robert.

Though not why Ned wouldn't confess that Dany is his to save her. . . . That seems like an even stronger move than just insulting Robert and quitting his Handship--if he is Dany's father. . . .

4 hours ago, Scorpion92 said:

George already included tidbits of Dany's memories not aligning with her backstory, and I think the reveal of Dany's true heritage will be on the same magnitude as with Jon, if not bigger. I know people are arguing that the timeline does not align and all that, but if Dany is indeed Ashara's daughter, then I am sure the conception would have happened at Starfall for Azor Ahai symbolism I brought up several pages ago.

I, too, think we are likely in for a big reveal re: Dany's parentage. The visions of Quaithe seem to set something like that up nicely. And I agree on the timeline--through in that Martin made a point of saying Ashara wasn't "nailed to the floor"--suggests that her movements may well be revealed--and probably matter.

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

16 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Well--any reason why Dany would have to be Ned and Ashara's? As opposed to Dany's being Aerys' via Ashara? Or Rhaegar's via Ashara? 

As for "protecting" the baby--if they lost Rhaella's baby and wanted a replacement, they are less "protecting the child" and more "using" her. Might even explain Illyrio's odd statement that he didn't expect Dany to live.

Ned is willing to go to very big lengths to protect Dany--a child with whom he has no established connection in the books. He insults Robert in front of witnesses and breaks with him. A risk to himself and his entire family. So, we know Ned will risk a lot to protect kids.

Plus, the Daynes respect Ned a lot for no reason yet discernible in the books. And Ned feels regret over Arthur--but not the other KG at the tower. For reasons not yet given in the books.

If Ned was protecting a Dayne child in Dany--that could be a potential explanation of all of that. And even potentially explain why he doesn't just tell Cat that she isn't to talk of Jon's origins. He also asks where she heard "that name"--meaning Ashara's. And why Cat says:  "and from that day on, the whispering had stopped, and Ashara Dayne's name was never heard in Winterfell again." Game, Catelyn II.

Yes, because Dany being Aerys' via Ashara makes no sense (as Aerys' swore off other women to help him concieve children with Rhaella...AND when would he have been around Ashara. Someone would have taken note, like Barristan or Eddard or someone! And if she is Rhaegar's, you are suggesting despite believing in the power of three (i.e. Rhaenys, Aegon, and Jon), he suddenly decided to just have a fourth baby? And again, why? So Lyanna and Ashara are just down with this? The only thing that makes this theory make any sense is if Daenerys is Eddards child. Changing the father makes it even less likely. It is so ridiculous that this would never get out. Oh while we are going to war over Rhaegar and Lyanna, also he has another lover! Come on, this is so obviously ridiculous and untrue, it is painful. Even the arguments you have for why this makes narrative sense, only make sense if it is Ned's baby, and again tat leaves is with why? Why would Willam Darry pretend to have Dany? How would this benifit the Daynes? What the hell do they gain through this? Ashara is like, yes take my baby because you can tell as a baby that its going to look really Targaryen and isnt going to , you know, end up with dark hair like happens all the time (my sister was a blonde baby and brunette ,child and adult). It makes no sense! Why would Ashara's bastard even be in danger? Couldnt they just claim it was a Dayne? After all, as this whole theory is based around, they have those traits. They could claim some Lyseni knocked her up if they were really scared. Like, it just is not logical in anyway whatsoever. And also, the Daynes respect Ned because he returned their sword and was an honerable foe. Houses steeped with honor like the Daynes tend to do that. Ned probably loved Ashara, I do not doubt that, but I do not think they produced a child. Ned did not want her honor ruined, that is why he said never to speak of her. Remember, Ned was nothing, if not focused on ones honor. He may hate that his lie (about Jon) could ever hurt someone he once loved (Ashara). Willam Darry could have just got a baby from Lys (with you kbow, white haired parents, more garunteed then some Dayne kid who might end up brunette) if they really wanted some illogical fake Dany for some reason that know one knew died. Also, all of this would ruin Daenerys as the prince who was promised born amongst sea and smoke they always tk about. Look, this, like the theory that Tyrion is a Targaryen,  has no real evidence. It has evidence against not being true, but no actual evidence for being true. There is nothing. No indication. No textual facts. Nothing. Just some circumstantial things that could add up to something, but are in no way proof. No foreshadowing. Also, dont people comment that Dany looks like her brothers? Anyways,. I am done ranting. It makes no sense.

[Orphalesion]

On 17/12/2016 at 11:57 PM, Scorpion92 said:

I think George will reveal Dany's true parentage at the very end of the series through Bran's weirwodd visions.

 

But he has already revealed Dany's parentage. She's Aerys II's daughter with his wife...

 

On 17/12/2016 at 11:57 PM, Scorpion92 said:

I cannot wait for Winds of Winter for proving this theory, craving new tidbits.

Funny I cannot wait for Winds of Winter to disprove this "theory", though I doubt it will succeed in that. The series will be over and done and the last chapter could feature a magical paternity test and people would still spin yarns about Daneyrs "true parentage" Jon's "twin sister" and an imaginary blackhole moon or whatever.

[maudisdottir]

3 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

Anyways,. I am done ranting. It makes no sense.

It feels good to rant, though, and some of the logic in these threads hurts my brain.

It's one thing to say "I don't really believe this is likely, but here are a bunch of things that don't discount some fringe theory".  It's another thing entirely to say "all the clues are misdirections, only people with special powers of comprehension can pick up George's true meaning" and produce not a single line from the books that would lead the reader to even contemplate the theory without having huffed a big fat joint (i.e. anything is possible, the more out there the better).

At least this thread is relatively good-natured.  The Heresy threads are really frustrating, repeatedly being told the average reader isn't clever enough to get it, or else we're all lying to ourselves.