Theories on the assassination of Jon Snow at CB

[Alaynsa Starne]

On 12/20/2016 at 3:23 PM, Suzanna Stormborn said:

The signing of the US Declaration of Independence was also 'Treason', doesn't make it wrong.  I agree with others on this thread who said that 'laws are not always just, and sometimes they need to be broken to do the right thing'.  For instance, in our current political climate, I have many treasonous thoughts towards our upcoming administration and I (and the majority of voting Americans) are on the right side of the argument.

Not that this has anything to do with the thread at all, but it's not treasonous to disagree with the presidency. Criticizing those in power is the best way to serve your country, and is the most patriotic thing you could do. 

[Clegane'sPup]

Martin muddied the situation even more when he released the Theon chapter that was moved from DwD to WoW.

WoW spoiler

Spoiler

Stannis told Massey you may hear that I am dead. Stannis is going to send Massey with the Banker, Mormont woman and fArya to the Wall. I gotta ask, was that Theon chapter suppose to be before or after Jon receives that letter?

Can posters use that chapter openly now?

[The Fattest Leech]

54 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Martin muddied the situation even more when he released the Theon chapter that was moved from DwD to WoW.

WoW spoiler

  Hide contents

Stannis told Massey you may hear that I am dead. Stannis is going to send Massey with the Banker, Mormont woman and fArya to the Wall. I gotta ask, was that Theon chapter suppose to be before or after Jon receives that letter?

Can posters use that chapter openly now?

I believe that Theon in TWOW is happening before Jon gets the PL. I could be wrong, but that is the answer given to me from this forum a few months back. I'll see if I can find a better answer.

And TWOW still has to be eyeball hidden.

ADDING: I am still looking, but apparently the search site in this forum is not liking me today. But a search in google brought me to another poster that heard the same thing, that it happens before the end of ADWD. Read that post here if you want. It is super short.

and now I see @three-eyed monkey heard the same thing.

[three-eyed monkey]

Yes, it's been published for years and I think 6 months is the general rule regarding spoiler tags.

It is also worth noting that GRRM said that the Theon chapter took place before some of the events near the end of ADwD, which basically means before Jon XIII if you ask me. 

[kissdbyfire]

I'm with everyone who thinks TWoW Theon I takes place before ADwD Jon XIII. 

[bemused]

@kissdbyfire

 You know, I agree that George doesn't cheat.. but we know he can be very misleading in what he mentions and doesn't mention and in the language he uses.

@rotting sea cow 

I also agree that he loves to set us puzzles and as I see it, the puzzles of the letter and the assassination attempt / mutiny , each a puzzle taken separately, are part of a greater whole. The whole damn Northern scenario is a puzzle, let's face it.

If I can digress a bit more on the letter, I think Jon sees no difference in his two "Ramsay" letters because there is no difference except, perhaps (and only perhaps), that the first was signed in blood and the second may be signed in ink.

We're misled by Asha's letter, which is authored entirely by Ramsay, written entirely in the blood of ironmen. We naturally assume similarities that probably don't exist.

Though Jon's letter tells of the ironmen's fate, we don't see the exact content - we hear how Jon paraphrases it for the men.(But mention of the ironmen is one of the things that create an equivalence between the two letters in our minds.)

The main topic of Jon's letter is the upcoming wedding and the return of Roose ... "Roose Bolton summons all leal lords to Barrowton, to affirm their loyalty to the Iron Throne and celebrate his son’s wedding to …” ... So there would have been multiple copies. How much blood would Ramsay have needed to write them all, and why should he want to be the copyist?

Jon mentions the "brown ink" and spiky hand in direct relation to Ramsay's signature, not the whole text .... Jon ripped off his gauntlet, took the letter, cracked the seal. When he saw the signature, he forgot the battering Rattleshirt had given him.
Ramsay Bolton, Lord of the Hornwood, it read, in a huge, spiky hand. The brown ink came away in flakes when Jon brushed it with his thumb. Beneath Bolton’s signature, Lord Dustin, Lady Cerwyn, and four Ryswells had appended their own marks and seals. A cruder hand had drawn the giant of House Umber. ... Jon finds nothing remarkable in the ink used by the other signatories, but it's safe to assume they didn't sign in blood.

So I think both Jon's letters appeared much the same... Written in ink (supposedly) by a maester and signed only, in "Ramsay's" hand.

2 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

For me the letter is out of character with Ramsay's previous letters, it's out of character with Ramsay, and Ramsay lacks a good motive to write the letter. If I let those three things slide then it is possible Ramsay wrote the letter after a misdirect by Stannis. From the point of view of this thread it is irrelevant if Ramsay or Stannis wrote it as they both accomplish the same thing.

I agree, particularly with the bold.

[Lord Varys]

George told us that Theon 1 took place before the end of ADwD but that doesn't necessarily mean it took place before the arrival of the Pink Letter.

Keep in mind that we don't yet know how the battle(s) near Winterfell are going to play out. If George had said Theon 1 took place after Jon's assassination then this could have been interpreted as a hint about the truth of the Pink Letter.

But the way George spun it the timeline still allows it that Ramsay's letter was true, and Stannis is dead, etc. because Theon 1 is taking place earlier in the time line.

[kissdbyfire]

@bemused, it's a funny feeling to be discussing anything and not agree with you 100%, it's possibly a first!

Well, maybe a second, if we count Mully

That said, and back to the topic here... I think the issue here is what each of us would consider a 'cheat' by Martin, or in other words, how much deception/misdirection until he crosses the line into cheat territory. I would definitely consider either of the following scenarios as 'cheats' of the type I don't think Martin does:

a - Jon notices significant differences between the two letters he's received from Ramsay (handwriting, tenor, wording, etc) and doesn't think about  these differences at all, doesn't say anything - not even to Tormund, who gives him the perfect opening when he says it could be all lies. As I said up thread, given how serious the claims are, it makes no sense for Jon not to talk or even just think about it, unless it's only to muddy everything to the point where it's impossible to be certain without knowing more. And that's a type of cheat I don't think Martin goes for. 

b - there are no significant differences but it's a second letter, forged at CB or elsewhere, by someone(s) who got their hands on/intercepted whatever an original letter, sent by Ramsay. And I don't see how the forgery could be so good as to fool Jon, who has received a letter from Ramsay already... And I'd consider that a sort of cheat too - although less so than option a. 

I think my main problem with the letter not being from Ramsay is that none of the alternatives and theories I've read over the years make much sense, imo. The motives and the way to go about achieving their 'goals' sound too far-fetched for my taste... And I can't help but feel that whoever wrote the PL is... well, a dim bulb, and Stannis and Mance are nothing if not intelligent and experiment men.

 

[Lord Varys]

Stannis would have named faked his death is such a ridiculous manner. Mance would never have spun a tale that mentioned him wearing the skins of his women for a cloak. In fact, neither of them would have ever written a letter from the point of view of Ramsay of all people.

And neither would Theon. At least not until he was forced to do so.

That's just a stupid theory.

[Clegane'sPup]

Someone with multiple PhD’s needs to run this frekking letter though a computer analysis program. The computer program will yield a probable answer before Martin releases WoW. AND I will be most jubilant to see the result.

Mission Impossible music plays.

Argh mayhap I should venture into the Twilight  Zone

 

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back. I want the false king's queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want this wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard's heart and eat it.

Ramsay Bolton, Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.

 

 

 

 

 

[Wrl6199]

17 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Someone with multiple PhD’s needs to run this frekking letter though a computer analysis program. The computer program will yield a probable answer before Martin releases WoW. AND I will be most jubilant to see the result.

Mission Impossible music plays.

Argh mayhap I should venture into the Twilight  Zone

 

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

I want my bride back. I want the false king's queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want this wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard's heart and eat it.

Ramsay Bolton, Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Did you find a computer program to run it through?

[Clegane'sPup]

12 minutes ago, Wrl6199 said:

Did you find a computer program to run it through?

Oy, I don't have two PhD's. Do you?  Nor do I have access to top notch, top of the line computer programs. Ummm maybe you do?

 

30 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Someone with multiple PhD’s needs to run this frekking letter though a computer analysis program. The computer program will yield a probable answer before Martin releases WoW. AND I will be most jubilant to see the result.

 

[sweetsunray]

9 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I find the idea that the PL was altered in any way extremely hard to believe. Jon would notice a different hand, and it would be different because no one would have been able to perfectly match whoever's handwriting. If the handwriting doesn't match, we would have learned it from Jon, because Martin doesn't 'cheat' that way. He's tricksy, but he doesn't cheat.

Well. Jon doesn't note the "handwriting" style as being Ramsay's spikey hand. He also noted in the previous letter that a maester had also written the names of the other lords. Often maesters write letters as well. And Jon and others could assume that Ramsay may not have been capable of writing a letter in his own hand at the time, because of some wound. 

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

As I said up thread, given how serious the claims are, it makes no sense for Jon not to talk or even just think about it, unless it's only to muddy everything to the point where it's impossible to be certain without knowing more. And that's a type of cheat I don't think Martin goes for. 

He cheated by keeping us out of the loop of the discussion that Tormund and Jon had, and where Jon has the other letter to make a comparison. Many readers often assume that Jon's state of mind in the Shieldhall is like the one when he tells Tormund they need a change of plans, but we don't know that either. Jon's last chapter hides a lot of stuff we could otherwise expect to read about from Jon's POV. He wrote a veiled POV chapter, much as he did with Ned Stark. 

[kissdbyfire]

18 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Well. Jon doesn't note the "handwriting" style as being Ramsay's spikey hand. He also noted in the previous letter that a maester had also written the names of the other lords. Often maesters write letters as well. And Jon and others could assume that Ramsay may not have been capable of writing a letter in his own hand at the time, because of some wound. 

The way I see it, he doesn't think about it being spiky because it is; he doesn't have to think the same thing twice. He "knows" the letter is from Ramsay, he's received another letter from him already, and he would only think about it if it looked different, not the same. 

As to the rest, how a maester/someone else could have written it, it's the same issue again for me. Because I think he then would think about it at the very least.

[sweetsunray]

23 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

The way I see it, he doesn't think about it being spiky because it is; he doesn't have to think the same thing twice. He "knows" the letter is from Ramsay, he's received another letter from him already, and he would only think about it if it looked different, not the same. 

As to the rest, how a maester/someone else could have written it, it's the same issue again for me. Because I think he then would think about it at the very least.

Well we miss hours of "thinking" of  Jon's POV. Suddenly we're told Jon and Tormund discuss things in his room, without being told what they discussed, nor Jon's thoughts at the time. We don't get any description about the letter, not even that he "recognized" the handwriting, or the flaking ink, or the signatures of the other lords (which would be a political sign of how much support Ramsay has in attacking the Wall).

Twice George describes the outlook, the physical details of Ramsay's letters with Asha and Jon earlier on. And all of a sudden any of those descriptions are not mentioned at all in the most plot-crucial letter that Ramsay could have written, except for a very suspicious seal, and we must just "assume" that it's the same? Nah,not buying that. If GRRM wanted to confirm that the letter was Ramsay's then George would have implemented a "recognition". He did not do such a thing, and therefore implemented doubt about the author and the veracity of the claims in it.

Whether the doubt is a red herring or not remains to be seen. But if it turns out that the letter was tampered with or written and sent by someone else, you can't really argue he "cheated" in the description of the letter.

[kissdbyfire]

@sweetsunray, I think the lack of confirmation is a red herring, and it's supposed to do exactly what it does: it's impossible to be sure who the letter's author is. And if that's the case, I wouldn't consder it 'cheating'.

 

[sweetsunray]

2 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

@sweetsunray, I think the lack of confirmation is a red herring, and it's supposed to do exactly what it does: it's impossible to be sure who the letter's author is. And if that's the case, I wouldn't consder it 'cheating'.

Indeed, George ommitted mentioning any physical evidence to either confirm or negate that Ramsay is the author. If it isn't Ramsay there are enough clues and ommissions of thoughts and physical description of the letter to allow for it. If it is Ramsay it leaves just enough room to explain the coflicting info or not mentioning the (recognition) of the physical details (though personally there's not much of a chance that Ramsay wrote it. I'm in the "Tybald's pen and wax, Stannis's order, and Theon's help" faction). And then he sprinkled enough suggestions in Theon's tWoW chapter and Jon's POV with Mel telling him to look to the sky for an "answer" that would explain all his questions to suggest an alternative. Personally I doubt it's a red herring, because when you read that letter on first-read it nearly gives you a heart-attack from fright. Only at later inspection the question marks come. But then again, George may be trolling us with hope

Regardless of the intention behind it, we can agree that it was written that way on purpose by George.

[bemused]

4 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

@bemused, it's a funny feeling to be discussing anything and not agree with you 100%, it's possibly a first!

Well, maybe a second, if we count Mully

That said, and back to the topic here... I think the issue here is what each of us would consider a 'cheat' by Martin, or in other words, how much deception/misdirection until he crosses the line into cheat territory. I would definitely consider either of the following scenarios as 'cheats' of the type I don't think Martin does:

a - Jon notices significant differences between the two letters he's received from Ramsay (handwriting, tenor, wording, etc) and doesn't think about  these differences at all, doesn't say anything - not even to Tormund, who gives him the perfect opening when he says it could be all lies. As I said up thread, given how serious the claims are, it makes no sense for Jon not to talk or even just think about it, unless it's only to muddy everything to the point where it's impossible to be certain without knowing more. And that's a type of cheat I don't think Martin goes for. 

b - there are no significant differences but it's a second letter, forged at CB or elsewhere, by someone(s) who got their hands on/intercepted whatever an original letter, sent by Ramsay. And I don't see how the forgery could be so good as to fool Jon, who has received a letter from Ramsay already... And I'd consider that a sort of cheat too - although less so than option a. 

I think my main problem with the letter not being from Ramsay is that none of the alternatives and theories I've read over the years make much sense, imo. The motives and the way to go about achieving their 'goals' sound too far-fetched for my taste... And I can't help but feel that whoever wrote the PL is... well, a dim bulb, and Stannis and Mance are nothing if not intelligent and experiment men.

 

It is a bit weird, when we're in tune so often... 

So I think our views on what constitutes a cheat may differ a bit ... I think there's really a c that solves some of those issues for me. 

c... I don't think Jon notices differences - except for the form of address on the outside ("Bastard") and perhaps the ink used in the signature.. I think the main body of both letters must have been written in Maester's black, and in a different hand (supposedly by some "maester"). This would arouse no suspicion.

With the first letter going out to summon all the Northern houses, it would probably have been a quite impersonal and formal announcement and summons.

Jon has seen Ramsay's signature exactly once before, and it wouldn't have been a letter he would read and re-read, as one might a love letter or a letter from home (nor would it be as thought provoking as the second letter). I think a reasonable facsimile of the signature would pass muster.

Now we hit a real snag because like @three-eyed monkey I don't think the letter sounds like Ramsay's previous letters and I think writing to Jon, thus giving him warning, (and giving him a chance to rescue "Arya") is really not Ramsay's style.

For me, the answer is - Tybald at Stannis' direction, with information / opinion from Theon. Tybald would be very familiar with Ramsay's signature.

No-one knows Ramsay better than Theon, and I think Ramsay would have been out of WF after his quarry very soon after learning of the escape (soon after the Frey and Manderly men had been deployed). I think he would follow on north after them, ideally, to retrieve Jeyne (and Theon) before their secret could be spilled to too many. Ramsay would not give warning to Jon, but Stannis would try to. (Stannis would not be trying to get Jon to "come to WF" but to look out for Tycho's party (don't forget his loan) and defend CB.)

From here I splinter off to the second forgery at CB by Thorne/Cassius and Marsh (But Thorne is the stylist)

I do agree GRRM has really left us in the dark , but considering that  the battle (s?) at WF were intended to be in ADWD, I'm sure the Theon Chapter was as well... and so he may well have originally intended for us to have more information to go on.

[Lord Varys]

@Clegane'sPup

There is really no good reason to check the Pink Letter the way you are suggesting. Such an investigation would only make sense if we had reason to assume that George is deliberately including 'different writing styles' to give us clues. And there is no good reason to believe that.

Why do we assume the 'huge spiky hand' is actually Ramsay's handwriting? We cannot rule out that the man actually cannot write and dictated the letter to some of his goons or somebody he found who could write. We just assume that those letters were written by Ramsay.

And the same essentially does for all the letters we see in the books. Usually we assume that they contain the words of the person who signed them, regardless who wrote them. We know that Stannis certainly didn't write any of the many letters he sent to the Lords of the Seven Kingdoms to inform them about the adultery of his sister-in-law yet we know that those letters did contain the words of Stannis Baratheon.

Just as the Pink Letter most certainly contains the words of Ramsay Bolton, regardless who wrote them.

However, I think the fact that we got the smear of pink wax rather than a clearly sealed letter as well as no mention of the 'huge spiky handwriting' can be seen as George messing with our heads insofar as that he wants us to guess whether the letter was a forgery written at Castle Black, written by Ramsay, or opened in advance by Clydas.

But that doesn't mean that it makes a lot of sense to assume that anybody but Ramsay (and Roose) had a motive to write such a letter to Jon Snow.